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  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited March 2016
    chestnut said:

    Where's the optimism in the case for remaining in the EU? The case to say everything will improve if we stay in?

    They don't need to. It's the status quo v the unknown.

    And at the moment the status quo is represented by the whole establishment and 'the unknown' are representing themselves with a bunch that to all the world look like a disorganized freak show which is why I think the vote will be decisive
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,969
    Mr. 30, whilst I don't approve of the allegation against Korski, it is not in the same league as the McBride business.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,315

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: I suspect a correlation between a)people who give a toss what the Queen thinks of politics, and b)people who'd probably vote Brexit anyway.

    Remain chucking their toys out of the pram.
    It would uncharacteristic of both sides in this debate to not act like whiny babies. Even more than politics as usual the level of partisan whinging, so early on, has been remarkable - the most minor of standard political opposition has been decried as unconscionable smearing for example, it's pathetic.

    It's utterly unedifying. Lies and scare stories from both sides.

    I'm a committed Leaver (albeit EFTA/EEA), but the Turkey scare stories rank up there with "3 million jobs" or "increasing our influence in the world" or "this is a good deal", etc.
    Quite right too. What's the point of one side standing aloof whilst the other liberally sprays mud? There are no points for propriety, as Trump proves.

    I think the Sun headline is utterly awful to the Queen.

    But y'know if her Maj backs Brexit, maybe it's the patriotic thing to do. GENIUS.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,806

    Given the general disdain for the Daily Mail on here, it’s surprising how many seem to read it!

    Nothing unusual about privately enjoying things that you publicly condemn.
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    Trump struggled with wealthy pious Dutch farmers of western Michigan, not unlike in Iowa with its NW corner, losing them to Cruz. Damn Dutch.

    Trump is doing fine in the West, except he is being killed by the Mormons, and the evangelicals to a lesser extent, who are voting Cruz.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Owing to its bizarre rounding rules, it's looking like Rubio will win just 1 delegate in Hawaii, his sole delegate of the night from anywhere...

    All hail the @Cromwell One (Delegate).
    RUBIO RISING as he used to say.
    He did.

    Rubio rising by one delegate overnight. Clearly a game changer.
    1, out of 150 up for grabs...
    Out of small acorns .... :smile:
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2016

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still over a month until we have an official Leave campaign...

    All part of the master strategy Mr Dancer, to lull the Remainers into a false sense of security.

    Come April 24th, they won’t know what hit them….! :lol:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    In a hotly contested category, Peter Bone wins this morning's prize for silliest response to a development in the referendum campaign:

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,619

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: I suspect a correlation between a)people who give a toss what the Queen thinks of politics, and b)people who'd probably vote Brexit anyway.

    Remain chucking their toys out of the pram.
    It would uncharacteristic of both sides in this debate to not act like whiny babies. Even more than politics as usual the level of partisan whinging, so early on, has been remarkable - the most minor of standard political opposition has been decried as unconscionable smearing for example, it's pathetic.

    It's utterly unedifying. Lies and scare stories from both sides.

    I'm a committed Leaver (albeit EFTA/EEA), but the Turkey scare stories rank up there with "3 million jobs" or "increasing our influence in the world" or "this is a good deal", etc.
    Quite right too. What's the point of one side standing aloof whilst the other liberally sprays mud? There are no points for propriety, as Trump proves.?
    Really?

    I've written, persuasively I hope, about why our culture, legal and democratic systems are a poor fit for the EU. But when I read ridiculous scare stories, that are clearly not based in fact (and are obviously not based in fact), they make my blood boil.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,315
    JackW said:

    Interesting detail from MI - in the end, Clinton won big in Wayne, which I understand is strongly Hispanic, but only by a fractional 2% in Macomb, which I understand is strongly African-American?

    The exit poll indicated Clinton won AA 2:1.

    Sanders worked the better college educated AA well and got some important endorsements. There was also some complacency in the Clinton camp. Delegate wise Michigan was almost a wash but Clinton's huge win in Mississippi means she extends her delegate lead further.
    The calendar get better for Sanders though after now. Out of Dixie, and perhaps rustbelt black people not as pro Clinton as the south. Florida looks great for HRC still with all it's old people and northern part being similiar to LA, GA...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still over a month until we have an official Leave campaign...

    All part of the master strategy Mr Dancer, to lull the Remainers into a false sense of security.

    Come April 24th, they won’t know what hit them….! :lol:
    The decision is going to be pushed back to June 24th at this rate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,969
    Mr. StClare, it's a very realistic sense of false security :p
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Few are paying any attention to the money grabbing doctors strike.. its a disgrace that they are on strike in the first place.. I doubt those patients waiting for appointments whose apt might be put back several weeks will be too pleased with them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265

    Mr. 30, whilst I don't approve of the allegation against Korski, it is not in the same league as the McBride business.

    No one so far as I can see has yet got further than "Mr Korski picked up the phone". Given that the head of the BCC had just come out against his own organisation's previously stated position, that doesn't seem like that unlikely or unusual a thing to have done.

    The rest is just completely unsubstantiated innuendo. Wake me up if anyone has anything of any substance to contribute to make me look at this again.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,969
    Mr. Meeks, haven't senior members of the BCC come out for Remain and faced no sanction?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Interesting detail from MI - in the end, Clinton won big in Wayne, which I understand is strongly Hispanic, but only by a fractional 2% in Macomb, which I understand is strongly African-American?

    The exit poll indicated Clinton won AA 2:1.

    Sanders worked the better college educated AA well and got some important endorsements. There was also some complacency in the Clinton camp. Delegate wise Michigan was almost a wash but Clinton's huge win in Mississippi means she extends her delegate lead further.
    The calendar get better for Sanders though after now. Out of Dixie, and perhaps rustbelt black people not as pro Clinton as the south. Florida looks great for HRC still with all it's old people and northern part being similiar to LA, GA...
    Certainly better but in the context of the end game to little effect.

    Sanders will stay in the game to have considerable influence on the convention platform. I also think it's good for Clinton. Sanders helps her to sharpen her game and maintain a strong media presence otherwise the focus would be entirely on the GOP death march.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    On topic, I wonder how long it is going to take Conservatives to realise what generations of polls have told us: doctors are far more trusted than politicians.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,476

    In a hotly contested category, Peter Bone wins this morning's prize for silliest response to a development in the referendum campaign:

    Morning all,

    I'm sure Mr Carney regularly considers his position and reflects that it is a very nice one thank you very much.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,344

    Mr. 30, whilst I don't approve of the allegation against Korski, it is not in the same league as the McBride business.

    No one so far as I can see has yet got further than "Mr Korski picked up the phone". Given that the head of the BCC had just come out against his own organisation's previously stated position, that doesn't seem like that unlikely or unusual a thing to have done.

    The rest is just completely unsubstantiated innuendo. Wake me up if anyone has anything of any substance to contribute to make me look at this again.
    Not for the first time the Leave campaign are looking at the motes in others' eyes rather than the beams in their own.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Talking point...

    Robert Kimball
    Countries the EU has NOT sealed free trade agreements with:

    Australia
    Brazil
    China
    India
    Indonesia
    Japan
    NZ
    Russia
    Taiwan
    Thailand
    UAE
    USA
  • GOP overbroke again. 9.4%.,
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,476
    RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Owing to its bizarre rounding rules, it's looking like Rubio will win just 1 delegate in Hawaii, his sole delegate of the night from anywhere...

    All hail the @Cromwell One (Delegate).
    RUBIO RISING as he used to say.
    He did.

    Rubio rising by one delegate overnight. Clearly a game changer.
    1, out of 150 up for grabs...
    6 more days in the race for Rubio? FL on 15th March.
  • GOP overbroke again. 9.4%.,

    97.4%
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,808
    Roger,

    "And at the moment the status quo is represented by the whole establishment."

    That's not as good as it used to be. Recently, we've seen an anti-Establishment surge. Why else would Labour elect a man unsuited to be a dog catcher? He's anti-Establishment.

    The Old Gits are strong for Brexit, so why not target the youth now. I'm sure you could come up with an advert featuring young people rebelling against the boring oLd fogeys of the EU.

    It's a time for youth not the suffocating smugness of the "Establishment". Break out and be free. By comparison, a timid boring person can be presented as the drone of the EU. "Because they say so."
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    The world didn't end, most are working and only the hard core politically motivated are left.

    HMG won. The doctors PR took a long term hit.

    Few are paying any attention to the money grabbing doctors strike.. its a disgrace that they are on strike in the first place.. I doubt those patients waiting for appointments whose apt might be put back several weeks will be too pleased with them.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Owing to its bizarre rounding rules, it's looking like Rubio will win just 1 delegate in Hawaii, his sole delegate of the night from anywhere...

    All hail the @Cromwell One (Delegate).
    RUBIO RISING as he used to say.
    He did.

    Rubio rising by one delegate overnight. Clearly a game changer.
    1, out of 150 up for grabs...
    6 more days in the race for Rubio? FL on 15th March.
    If Trump wins FL, I think the cake is baked...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,619

    Talking point...

    Robert Kimball
    Countries the EU has NOT sealed free trade agreements with:

    Australia
    Brazil
    China
    India
    Indonesia
    Japan
    NZ
    Russia
    Taiwan
    Thailand
    UAE
    USA

    I don't think that India will - in its current state - sign a proper free trade agreement with anyone. Its government suffers from "producer capture", where it implements policies designed to protect local industries (such as finance).

    The UAE should be replaced by the GCC, because that is the trading block it is part of. It's noteworthy that EFTA has managed to come to a free trade deal with the GCC, while the EU has not. That being said, it's a difficult place to get a free trade deal with, because all of its exports are tax free around the world (no-one has tariffs on oil and gas), and it uses tariffs as a way of raising revenue.

    As an aside, if you swapped "EU" for "USA" or "China", how different would the list look?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,243
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: I suspect a correlation between a)people who give a toss what the Queen thinks of politics, and b)people who'd probably vote Brexit anyway.

    Remain chucking their toys out of the pram.
    It would uncharacteristic of both sides in this debate to not act like whiny babies. Even more than politics as usual the level of partisan whinging, so early on, has been remarkable - the most minor of standard political opposition has been decried as unconscionable smearing for example, it's pathetic.

    It's utterly unedifying. Lies and scare stories from both sides.

    I'm a committed Leaver (albeit EFTA/EEA), but the Turkey scare stories rank up there with "3 million jobs" or "increasing our influence in the world" or "this is a good deal", etc.
    Quite right too. What's the point of one side standing aloof whilst the other liberally sprays mud? There are no points for propriety, as Trump proves.

    I think the Sun headline is utterly awful to the Queen.

    But y'know if her Maj backs Brexit, maybe it's the patriotic thing to do. GENIUS.
    I doubt the Queen is overly bothered, she's had far worse - I happened to be watching Newnight with three others when Emily Maitless produced a copy of the Sun's first edition, perhaps because the headline was so ludicrous everyone just fell off their seat laughing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 41,896
    [SNP] MPs rebelled against their leadership over a deal done with Osborne. It reports the quid pro quo for Sunday trading abstention wasn’t just on the financial settlement, but on a Privy Council seat for Stewart Hosie and an extra, controlling seat on the Scottish Affairs Committee. Stewart Hosie laughed and said this was ‘nonsense’ last night. But that’s another denial that could get more scrutiny.

    Nicola Sturgeon faces a bad day at the office today as the GERS figures, Gov Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland, deliver a hammer blow to the case for independence. The slump will reflect the 54 per cent fall in UK oil revenues that will show the growing gulf between Scotland's public finances and the rest of the U.K.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/09/the-waugh-zone-march-9-20_n_9415488.html
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Its government suffers from "producer capture", where it implements policies designed to protect local industries

    That sounds vaguely familiar...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    edited March 2016

    Mr. Meeks, haven't senior members of the BCC come out for Remain and faced no sanction?

    (snip)

    This was explained on the radio the other day (yes, I know). The BCC is a federal organisation. Individual BCC groups (eg. Cornwall) can make a decision one way or the other, and campaign for it. But because the BCC as a whole is badly split, it was important for the top of the organisation to reflect that split by not adopting a firm position.

    That's if my somewhat dodgy memory is correct. I'd appreciate if someone can confirm or correct.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 41,896
    Astute readers will note that the story does not actually justify the headline, although, to be fair, Tom Newton Dunn, the journalist who wrote this story, can spot this too. His intro does not say that the Queen is backing Brexit, just that she has been “hailed as a backer of Brexit” by Tory MPs told about the two anecdotes at the heart of the story.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/09/queen-wants-uk-to-stay-in-eu-so-scotland-doesnt-go-independent-former-cabinet-minister-claims-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,421
    Triumphant night for Trump winning Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii while Cruz's victory in Idaho confirms him as Trump's main rival. Abysmal night for Rubio failing even in Hawaii and it is now a question of whether he drops out before or after Florida not if he drops out. Bad night for Kasich too not even coming close in Michigan and he is likely gone after Ohio next week too

    On the Democratic side the unexpected victory of Sanders in Michigan ensures his campaign continues for a while yet
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Hawaii 100% - Trump 42.4% .. Cruz 32.7% .. Rubio 13.1% .. Kasich 10.6%

    CNN
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 30, whilst I don't approve of the allegation against Korski, it is not in the same league as the McBride business.

    No one so far as I can see has yet got further than "Mr Korski picked up the phone". Given that the head of the BCC had just come out against his own organisation's previously stated position, that doesn't seem like that unlikely or unusual a thing to have done.

    The rest is just completely unsubstantiated innuendo. Wake me up if anyone has anything of any substance to contribute to make me look at this again.
    Not for the first time the Leave campaign are looking at the motes in others' eyes rather than the beams in their own.

    I'm not sure there's any mileage in the bullying story anyway. If anything it just reinforces the sense that the leavers have no arguments to make and for obvious reasons they are the ones who need to present a case
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,619
    runnymede said:

    Its government suffers from "producer capture", where it implements policies designed to protect local industries

    That sounds vaguely familiar...

    Should you have spare time, this piece from the WTO contains a lot of data on tariffs around the world: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/tariff_profiles13_e.pdf
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,992

    Mr. Meeks, haven't senior members of the BCC come out for Remain and faced no sanction?

    (snip)

    This was explained on the radio the other day (yes, I know). The BCC is a federal organisation. Individual BCC groups (eg. Cornwall) can make a decision one way or the other, and campaign for it. But because the BCC as a whole is badly split, it was important for the top of the organisation to reflect that split by not adopting a firm position.

    That's if my somewhat dodgy memory is correct. I'd appreciate if someone can confirm or correct.
    Perhaps David Cameron should have taken a similar view to his position given the split in the Tory Party....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,888

    As a loyal servant to Her Majesty I am delighted and not in the least surprised she is for Brexit.

    and there was me thinking the LEAVERS hated all things unaccountable and unelected

    That's it then , referendum over, we will all just bow down, tug our forelocks and do as the Saxe-Coburgs instruct!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,622
    chestnut said:

    Where's the optimism in the case for remaining in the EU? The case to say everything will improve if we stay in?

    One can be optimistic that our MEP’s, as eletcted next time, will pay a sensible part in the Europena Parliament, and not be merely desructive.
    One can be optimistic that with the Referendum out of the way the British Ministers will be able to play a sensible and constructive role in the councils of the EU, without having to look over their shoulder at poisonous local politics.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'And at the moment the status quo is represented by the whole establishment'

    Actually that's not really true - what we actually have developing this time around is (in part) a generational fight between two different establishments; the Blair/Cameron one and the 1980s/early 1990s one.

    After all, in the '1980/90s corner' we have Lord Lawson (ex CoE), Lord Howard (ex Home Secretary), Lord Owen (ex Foreign Sec), Mervyn King (ex BoE) etc.

    The fact that so many big figures from the 1980s now support LEAVE is very significant in my view.

    Their change of view represents the fact that the balance of pros and cons re. EU membership has shifted markedly in an adverse direction since then. And also that EU membership is now making the kind of transformational economic and social policies we used to turn Britain around in the 1980s ever harder to implement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,806
    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,851
    Pulpstar said:

    I've backed Sanders in Ohio at around 7-1 off the back of this lot.

    You can get 10-1 by laying Hillary on Betfair.

    I'm only betting small sums on POTUS, for fun, but am now all green on both tickets, so long as Rubio doesn't win the nomination - laid him ages ago and have accepted a £76 risk if he does.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Meeks, haven't senior members of the BCC come out for Remain and faced no sanction?

    (snip)

    This was explained on the radio the other day (yes, I know). The BCC is a federal organisation. Individual BCC groups (eg. Cornwall) can make a decision one way or the other, and campaign for it. But because the BCC as a whole is badly split, it was important for the top of the organisation to reflect that split by not adopting a firm position.

    That's if my somewhat dodgy memory is correct. I'd appreciate if someone can confirm or correct.
    Perhaps David Cameron should have taken a similar view to his position given the split in the Tory Party....
    Perhaps, but that's a slightly different situation. He is not head or DG of the Conservative Party; he is leader of the party and PM. Being aloof - especially after having negotiated a deal - would have been odd.

    "PM, do you support this deal you have negotiated?"
    "I have no position."
    "That's a no, then."

    PM's are not widely known for not having positions on topics. Still, it would have been an interesting appproach.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Triumphant night for Trump winning Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii while Cruz's victory in Idaho confirms him as Trump's main rival. Abysmal night for Rubio failing even in Hawaii and it is now a question of whether he drops out before or after Florida not if he drops out. Bad night for Kasich too not even coming close in Michigan and he is likely gone after Ohio next week too

    On the Democratic side the unexpected victory of Sanders in Michigan ensures his campaign continues for a while yet

    On the GOP it begs the question if both Kasich and Rubio both lose their home state and drop out which of the grossly unpalatable twins of Trump and Cruz do the Republican establishment back if any, and if not (more probable) what the hell do they do ?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Madame_LazPagz: when you have a junior doctor strike at 8, but an X Factor audition at 3... https://t.co/9QHps210gh
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited March 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Not surprising. I haven't seen a Party more dishevelled since Labour in the early 80's. Why Cameron hasn't got the courage that Kinnock showed when he booted out the spoilers I have no idea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,619
    edited March 2016
    @runnymede

    I just did a very simple data pull from the WTO report, looking at percentage of imports that incur a tariff of more than 15%. This is the result:
               Duties > 15%
    Brazil 96.4
    India 71.5
    New Zealand 31.3
    Korea 20.5
    Australia 13.4
    Canada 7.2
    Switzerland 6.9
    EU 4.2
    Japan 3.7
    USA 2.7
    Edit to add, calculated as share of HS 6 digit subheadings in per cent.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265

    Astute readers will note that the story does not actually justify the headline, although, to be fair, Tom Newton Dunn, the journalist who wrote this story, can spot this too. His intro does not say that the Queen is backing Brexit, just that she has been “hailed as a backer of Brexit” by Tory MPs told about the two anecdotes at the heart of the story.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/09/queen-wants-uk-to-stay-in-eu-so-scotland-doesnt-go-independent-former-cabinet-minister-claims-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    The most interesting question about this story for me is: why is it coming out now? For maximum impact, you would have expected it to detonate on the eve of the referendum.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,806
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Not surprising. I haven't seen a Party more dishevelled since Labour in the early 80's. Why Cameron hasn't got the courage that Kinnock showed when he booted out the spoilers I have no idea.
    UKIP + Conservatives for Leave = 30-35% of the voters. That's why.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,421

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Boris has a clear lead Gove second Osborne the highest Remainer
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    There are many things wrong with that article. But most of all, it shows how Leave is becoming Project Paranoia.

    "They're all out to get us!"

    Not the best mindset to be in when trying to negotiate after a leave vote ...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,344
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 30, whilst I don't approve of the allegation against Korski, it is not in the same league as the McBride business.

    No one so far as I can see has yet got further than "Mr Korski picked up the phone". Given that the head of the BCC had just come out against his own organisation's previously stated position, that doesn't seem like that unlikely or unusual a thing to have done.

    The rest is just completely unsubstantiated innuendo. Wake me up if anyone has anything of any substance to contribute to make me look at this again.
    Not for the first time the Leave campaign are looking at the motes in others' eyes rather than the beams in their own.

    I'm not sure there's any mileage in the bullying story anyway. If anything it just reinforces the sense that the leavers have no arguments to make and for obvious reasons they are the ones who need to present a case
    Agree: it makes them look a bit unhinged, TBH.

  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Should you have spare time, this piece from the WTO contains a lot of data on tariffs around the world

    Robert - thanks, I had it already. I agree it's a useful resource on tariffs though my oblique reference was more to do with 'product standards' being slanted to favour particular industries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,421
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Triumphant night for Trump winning Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii while Cruz's victory in Idaho confirms him as Trump's main rival. Abysmal night for Rubio failing even in Hawaii and it is now a question of whether he drops out before or after Florida not if he drops out. Bad night for Kasich too not even coming close in Michigan and he is likely gone after Ohio next week too

    On the Democratic side the unexpected victory of Sanders in Michigan ensures his campaign continues for a while yet

    On the GOP it begs the question if both Kasich and Rubio both lose their home state and drop out which of the grossly unpalatable twins of Trump and Cruz do the Republican establishment back if any, and if not (more probable) what the hell do they do ?

    The GOP establishment will by then be deciding between death by cyanide or electrocution
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,421
    OllyT said:

    As a loyal servant to Her Majesty I am delighted and not in the least surprised she is for Brexit.

    and there was me thinking the LEAVERS hated all things unaccountable and unelected

    That's it then , referendum over, we will all just bow down, tug our forelocks and do as the Saxe-Coburgs instruct!
    The Queen is officially neutral Philip is for Brexit Wills for Remain
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,619
    runnymede said:

    Should you have spare time, this piece from the WTO contains a lot of data on tariffs around the world

    Robert - thanks, I had it already. I agree it's a useful resource on tariffs though my oblique reference was more to do with 'product standards' being slanted to favour particular industries.

    This is why trade deals are so much more complex these days: they are rarely about tariff rates (except in emerging markets), and much more about non-tariff barriers (i.e. product standards).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,851

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 41,896
    Who leaked the Sun story?

    There were present: the Rt. Hon. Nicholas Clegg MP (Lord President), the Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State, Department for Education), the Rt. Hon. Cheryl Gillan MP (Secretary of State for Wales) and the Lord McNally (Minister of State, Ministry of Justice).

    Might that have been followed by lunch? If you can spot any anti-EU highly reliable senior sources in there, you win today's "Elementary, my dear Watson" Sherlock Holmes prize.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-who-could-have-told-the-sun-the-queen-backed-brexit-a6920601.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,622

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.
    Cameron wasn’t the best known before he actually started running.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    World First
    *U.K. JAN. MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION UP 0.7%; EST. 0.2% GAIN

    *U.K. JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 0.3%; EST. 0.4% GAIN
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,259

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.

    Cameron managed it easily enough at the last leadership election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    JonathanD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.

    Cameron managed it easily enough at the last leadership election.
    That was from Opposition. Even he was a shadow Cabinet minister at the time.

    Much depends on when the leadership election takes place. If it's this year, it will be one of the shorter priced candidates. If it's in 2019, it could easily be someone else who's currently off the radar who has come to some prominence in the interim.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Bloomberg
    Number of southern Europeans moving to Britain has surged - and may become a #Brexit factor https://t.co/eDzHEAyBcy https://t.co/c9Qt2GUJSj
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,144

    World First
    *U.K. JAN. MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION UP 0.7%; EST. 0.2% GAIN

    *U.K. JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 0.3%; EST. 0.4% GAIN

    Seasonal.

    It's simply stock replacement. Big companies run their stocks down for December year ends ( usually multinats ) and then replace all they should have ordered in December.

    February will be a better indicator.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,888

    Given the general disdain for the Daily Mail on here, it’s surprising how many seem to read it!

    Sean_F said:

    Given the general disdain for the Daily Mail on here, it’s surprising how many seem to read it!

    Nothing unusual about privately enjoying things that you publicly condemn.
    More like "know your enemy". I have a quick look online because I know FrancisUrquart and Plato will be posting links on PB any minute
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited March 2016
    I heard an interview with David Miliband yesterday. He's still by a distance the most impressive Labour figure still around. If his f***ing brother hadn't decided he was something he wasn't we would more than likely have a Labour government now and if we didn't we would have in a couple of months and what's more the Remainers would have a real leader
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Most visitors to ConHome are either faux-kippers or BOOers so no surprise on the vote.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Triumphant night for Trump winning Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii while Cruz's victory in Idaho confirms him as Trump's main rival. Abysmal night for Rubio failing even in Hawaii and it is now a question of whether he drops out before or after Florida not if he drops out. Bad night for Kasich too not even coming close in Michigan and he is likely gone after Ohio next week too

    On the Democratic side the unexpected victory of Sanders in Michigan ensures his campaign continues for a while yet

    On the GOP it begs the question if both Kasich and Rubio both lose their home state and drop out which of the grossly unpalatable twins of Trump and Cruz do the Republican establishment back if any, and if not (more probable) what the hell do they do ?

    The GOP establishment will by then be deciding between death by cyanide or electrocution
    They deserve to. Tens of millions of anti-establishment Americans, many of them Tea Partiers, have voted Republican in State or national elections in recent years in the mistaken belief that those they voted for were of the same worldview. They're badly disappointed and unbelievably angry.They want a GOP that is not utterly in the capture of lobbyists, self serving, venal, de-haut-en-bas paternalist, establihment status quo protecting and emanating such transparently manifest waves of disdain for the needs and wants of the man on the Cincinatti Omnibus. Trump has brilliantly captured this wave of anger and ridden it. I wish him all the luck in the world.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.
    Cameron wasn’t the best known before he actually started running.
    The party was in opposition though. Startling its third term in opposition, indeed.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    ' I have no idea.'


    I thought you didn't do self awareness ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,315

    Pulpstar said:

    I've backed Sanders in Ohio at around 7-1 off the back of this lot.

    You can get 10-1 by laying Hillary on Betfair.

    I'm only betting small sums on POTUS, for fun, but am now all green on both tickets, so long as Rubio doesn't win the nomination - laid him ages ago and have accepted a £76 risk if he does.
    It was a lay at 1.14 for £10 liability actually on Betfair :)

    Minnesota was another big DEM polling miss. At the time I put it down to old polls, but differential turnout in the rustbelt could be a big problem for Hillary.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.
    There's a difference between obscure within the party and obscure within the media. It's perfectly possible for MPs to be positioning themselves behind the scenes.

    Another reason for thinking it won't be a frontrunner is that it's likely that the frontrunners, with their increased media exposure, will get damaged during this referendum process. Boris is already damaged because of his ludicrous and blatantly self-serving behaviour.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/

    And this bit
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,421
    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Triumphant night for Trump winning Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii while Cruz's victory in Idaho confirms him as Trump's main rival. Abysmal night for Rubio failing even in Hawaii and it is now a question of whether he drops out before or after Florida not if he drops out. Bad night for Kasich too not even coming close in Michigan and he is likely gone after Ohio next week too

    On the Democratic side the unexpected victory of Sanders in Michigan ensures his campaign continues for a while yet

    On the GOP it begs the question if both Kasich and Rubio both lose their home state and drop out which of the grossly unpalatable twins of Trump and Cruz do the Republican establishment back if any, and if not (more probable) what the hell do they do ?

    The GOP establishment will by then be deciding between death by cyanide or electrocution
    They deserve to. Tens of millions of anti-establishment Americans, many of them Tea Partiers, have voted Republican in State or national elections in recent years in the mistaken belief that those they voted for were of the same worldview. They're badly disappointed and unbelievably angry.They want a GOP that is not utterly in the capture of lobbyists, self serving, venal, de-haut-en-bas paternalist, establihment status quo protecting and emanating such transparently manifest waves of disdain for the needs and wants of the man on the Cincinatti Omnibus. Trump has brilliantly captured this wave of anger and ridden it. I wish him all the luck in the world.
    Yes a revolution of the base
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    This is why trade deals are so much more complex these days: they are rarely about tariff rates (except in emerging markets), and much more about non-tariff barriers (i.e. product standards).

    Indeed. There's a case to be made that protectionism via 'product standards' is actually worse - certainly it is less transparent.

    btw the table you put up - were you looking at final bound tariffs there, or applied ones?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,259

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/

    And yet polling of BCC members, who comprise companies of all sizes show a majority favour remaining in the EU. A weak article by Hannan, notable for its lack of polling data on SMEs and their view of the EU.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Boris has a clear lead Gove second Osborne the highest Remainer
    A question I've asked before: how often has the frontrunner for a Conservative leadership election a year out been the eventual winner?

    (Although this is a somewhat unusual situation as the party is in government: the last time there was a leadership election like this was when Major took over from Thatcher.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 41,896

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.
    There's a difference between obscure within the party and obscure within the media. It's perfectly possible for MPs to be positioning themselves behind the scenes.
    Quite. John Major, despite his recent elevation, was largely unknown when he got the top job.....
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ad nauseum, it was less than 5% who responded.
    JonathanD said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    And yet polling of BCC members, who comprise companies of all sizes show a majority favour remaining in the EU. A weak article by Hannan, notable for its lack of polling data on SMEs and their view of the EU.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,291
    edited March 2016
    It seems to me that the EURef campaign may turn out to have been won on the playing fields of Eton, in the mud and the dirt :-).
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,888
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    As a loyal servant to Her Majesty I am delighted and not in the least surprised she is for Brexit.

    and there was me thinking the LEAVERS hated all things unaccountable and unelected

    That's it then , referendum over, we will all just bow down, tug our forelocks and do as the Saxe-Coburgs instruct!
    The Queen is officially neutral Philip is for Brexit Wills for Remain
    To be honest I couldn't give a ff what any of them thinks but it would have been hilarious to witness the conflicted interests of some of the LEAVERS if it had been leaked that she was for REMAIN!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    PA
    #Breaking Amazon is to create 1,000 new jobs at a centre in Manchester, the company has announced
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    MattW said:

    It seems to me that the EURef campaign may turn out to have been won on the playing fields of Eton, in the mud and the dirt :-).

    Bojo ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Off-topic:

    I've just discovered a website I use to book activities for the little 'un has totally borken security that allows passwordless entry.

    Ouch. I'll have words with them when I see them later. :(

    Computer security is difficult ...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,806
    perdix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Most visitors to ConHome are either faux-kippers or BOOers so no surprise on the vote.

    Leave Conservatives have also seen their ratings fall, though to a lesser extent. It's picking a side that alienates some supporters. That's consistent with Yougov's poll of Conservative members.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Matt is great today

    DTEL: Matt serves down the line #tomorrowspaperstoday https://t.co/423bHvyoPU
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,259

    Ad nauseum, it was less than 5% who responded.

    JonathanD said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    And yet polling of BCC members, who comprise companies of all sizes show a majority favour remaining in the EU. A weak article by Hannan, notable for its lack of polling data on SMEs and their view of the EU.


    So clearly not that big an issue for them either way. Certainly nothing for Hannan to construct an elaborate thesis over.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That's a leap of logic.
    JonathanD said:

    Ad nauseum, it was less than 5% who responded.

    JonathanD said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    And yet polling of BCC members, who comprise companies of all sizes show a majority favour remaining in the EU. A weak article by Hannan, notable for its lack of polling data on SMEs and their view of the EU.
    So clearly not that big an issue for them either way. Certainly nothing for Hannan to construct an elaborate thesis over.


  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,888
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 30, whilst I don't approve of the allegation against Korski, it is not in the same league as the McBride business.

    No one so far as I can see has yet got further than "Mr Korski picked up the phone". Given that the head of the BCC had just come out against his own organisation's previously stated position, that doesn't seem like that unlikely or unusual a thing to have done.

    The rest is just completely unsubstantiated innuendo. Wake me up if anyone has anything of any substance to contribute to make me look at this again.
    Not for the first time the Leave campaign are looking at the motes in others' eyes rather than the beams in their own.

    I'm not sure there's any mileage in the bullying story anyway. If anything it just reinforces the sense that the leavers have no arguments to make and for obvious reasons they are the ones who need to present a case
    Agree: it makes them look a bit unhinged, TBH.

    Up to this week there were some good posts in favour of BREXIT that made some good points (and am a 60-40 REMAINER) but this week seems to just be irrationally lashing out in all directions. God help the Queen if it had been leaked that she was for REMAIN!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Triumphant night for Trump winning Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii while Cruz's victory in Idaho confirms him as Trump's main rival. Abysmal night for Rubio failing even in Hawaii and it is now a question of whether he drops out before or after Florida not if he drops out. Bad night for Kasich too not even coming close in Michigan and he is likely gone after Ohio next week too

    On the Democratic side the unexpected victory of Sanders in Michigan ensures his campaign continues for a while yet

    On the GOP it begs the question if both Kasich and Rubio both lose their home state and drop out which of the grossly unpalatable twins of Trump and Cruz do the Republican establishment back if any, and if not (more probable) what the hell do they do ?

    The GOP establishment will by then be deciding between death by cyanide or electrocution
    They deserve to. Tens of millions of anti-establishment Americans, many of them Tea Partiers, have voted Republican in State or national elections in recent years in the mistaken belief that those they voted for were of the same worldview. They're badly disappointed and unbelievably angry.They want a GOP that is not utterly in the capture of lobbyists, self serving, venal, de-haut-en-bas paternalist, establihment status quo protecting and emanating such transparently manifest waves of disdain for the needs and wants of the man on the Cincinatti Omnibus. Trump has brilliantly captured this wave of anger and ridden it. I wish him all the luck in the world.
    Yes a revolution of the base
    Revolutions rarely produce good governments, or indeed competent ones!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,888

    Who leaked the Sun story?

    There were present: the Rt. Hon. Nicholas Clegg MP (Lord President), the Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State, Department for Education), the Rt. Hon. Cheryl Gillan MP (Secretary of State for Wales) and the Lord McNally (Minister of State, Ministry of Justice).

    Might that have been followed by lunch? If you can spot any anti-EU highly reliable senior sources in there, you win today's "Elementary, my dear Watson" Sherlock Holmes prize.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-who-could-have-told-the-sun-the-queen-backed-brexit-a6920601.html


    I think Gove is in deep trouble if he proves to be the source of the leak, either directly or indirectly. I seriously doubt he has leaked directly but it is feasible that he has said something to somebody that has.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,476
    Roger said:

    I heard an interview with David Miliband yesterday. He's still by a distance the most impressive Labour figure still around. If his f***ing brother hadn't decided he was something he wasn't we would more than likely have a Labour government now and if we didn't we would have in a couple of months and what's more the Remainers would have a real leader

    Well said. Although with benefit of hindsight, it does look as if Mili junior snatching victory off Mili senior was a straw in the wind as to the changes happening in Labour membership.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,266
    edited March 2016
    A night of recovery, consolidation and forward movement for the Donald. That wasn't 100% on the cards.

    The real issue for me is I can't see any current candidate that I would want to be POTUS, from the perspective of UK or if I was a USA citizen.

    If there was a market, I would think a value bet would be that the next POTUS is impeached. I can't see either HRC or the Donald getting through 4 years without impeachment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,603
    philiph said:

    A night of recovery, consolidation and forward movement for the Donald. That wasn't 100% on the cards.

    The real issue for me is I can't see any current candidate that I would want to be POTUS, from the perspective of UK or if I was a USA citizen.

    If there is a market, I would think a value bet would be that the next POTUS is impeached. I can't see either HRC or the Donald getting through 4 years without impeachment.

    I highly doubt it. Impeachment like brokered conventions are far more often spoken about than actually occur.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Wanderer said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting survey on Con Home, indicating that the ratings of almost every prominent Conservative have tumbled over the past month.

    Hence why I think none of the current frontrunners will be the next leader. It'll be someone the media are not concentrating on, who is keeping his or her head down and nose clean.
    Won't work because of the nomination process. An obscure figure won't make the MP cut to the last two.
    Cameron wasn’t the best known before he actually started running.
    The party was in opposition though. Startling its third term in opposition, indeed.
    Indeed. David Davis was not well known either.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,266

    philiph said:

    A night of recovery, consolidation and forward movement for the Donald. That wasn't 100% on the cards.

    The real issue for me is I can't see any current candidate that I would want to be POTUS, from the perspective of UK or if I was a USA citizen.

    If there is a market, I would think a value bet would be that the next POTUS is impeached. I can't see either HRC or the Donald getting through 4 years without impeachment.

    I highly doubt it. Impeachment like brokered conventions are far more often spoken about than actually occur.
    Yep. Just the one in my lifetime. Should mean there would be good odds.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    Rather amusing piss take letter in Times

    Pix https://t.co/r0k9HdlF0F
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,851
    Roger said:

    I heard an interview with David Miliband yesterday. He's still by a distance the most impressive Labour figure still around. If his f***ing brother hadn't decided he was something he wasn't we would more than likely have a Labour government now and if we didn't we would have in a couple of months and what's more the Remainers would have a real leader

    Not sure about the chain of counterfactuals. If DM won in 2015, we wouldn't be having a referendum (and if we were, the Tories would be united behind a sceptic leader campaigning for out, probably winning). If he lost, he wouldn't be leader any more, and would be a further diminished figure, so not much use for Remain. If there was a some kind of hung parliament/coalition scenario which led to a referendum taking place (unlikely in itself) it's hard to see Labour risking further Indyref-style damage by going up against the media and being the useful stooges for Remain.
This discussion has been closed.