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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    Rank the following in order of EU priorities:

    1) stabilising the Euro
    2) dealing with mass migration
    3) negotiating TTIP with the USA
    4) negotiating Brexit terms

    It's far from obvious to me that it ranks above fourth.
    Hmmm: I think it's well above (3), albeit probably behind (1) and (2).
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Why would they want to worsen their already serious economic issues? In the event of Brexit, the rest of the EU would be keen to come to an accommodation with us as soon as possible.'

    Yes of course that is right. Remember what a fuss German industry made about sanctions on Russia - and the UK is far more important to them as a market (four times as much in fact)

    Talk of trade wars is just desperate propaganda
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,119
    edited March 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    To amuse myself, I'm building a modern version of the Z88 based around a Raspberry Pi and a 1600x480 panel. I can hook up something around an HDMI - LVDS connector, but I'm wondering if there is an SBC with a build in LVDS...
    Does the panel only have an LVDS connector?

    I wish I had time at the moment to amuse myself like that. Mind you, most people know to keep me well away from a soldering iron at the best of times!

    Edit: scratch that, probably a stupid question.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmm: I think it's well above (3), albeit probably behind (1) and (2).
    So perhaps not dealt with particularly quickly after all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,586
    OllyT said:

    I'm afraid it just doesn't just stack up to me. I can see that argument for the Baltic nations etc but are you really saying that we some how have a superior democracy and political structure to France, Germany, Sweden, Holland, Denmark, Ireland etc?
    Norway and Switzerland are outside the EU altogether, Sweden and Denmark outside the Euro, Marine Le Pen leads the polls in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and even in Germany the anti-Euro AfD is on the rise, Euroscepticism is not completely unique to the UK!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    If the EU decides to play hardball, worst case scenario is the UK has to find other markets for its goods and services and grow domestic industries to replace missing imports. I'm not saying these things would be a walk in the park, but nor do the prospects fill me with terror.
    Worst case scenario in my opinion is we go down the WTO route, with a maximum tariff of 4%. As someone mentioned previously that could easily be subsidized by the £8bn saving in the initial period.

    How does losing 5m jobs compared to our supposed loss of 3m jobs sound to Scott and the rest? I'm sure that would go down well across Europe.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    Exactly.

    And for those who insist on using absolute monetary terms, you get the same answer.

    The EU generates 9 times as much money trading outside the UK as it does with us, in absolute monetary terms.

    The UK generates a fraction more from non-EU trade than we do from EU trade, in absolute monetary terms.

    One of these parties can afford a trade war. Clue, it's not us.

    But BMW, cry the leavers.

    BMW sells a lot of cars in the UK. but they sell more in Germany, twice as many in America, and more than that in China. the UK represents ~10% of BMW sales

    In contrast, JLR sells more cars in the EU than any other market

    So one of these companies could afford a trade war. Clue, it's not JLR.

    "Trade War"?

    No, we would (if we had to) use WTO tariffs (on both sides), until a deal was reached.

    Not the end of the world.

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903


    That's what I expected Cameron to do.

    Still can't quite believe either the crassness of the deal or the bullying attempts to make people accept it.

    No I do not think that is realistic once you delve into it. We have got the acceptance of the EU being a multiple currency area. Other countries may join the Euro but if they do not want to there is clear precedent. I do not see any point in talking to various countries who already have different currencies with a view to forming some alternate block that like as not would never happen or be flaky in the event.
    Who is to say how constant these countries views would ... err remain? And after 2 years of fruitless negotiations with them ... where to next?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Scott_P said:

    Exactly.

    And for those who insist on using absolute monetary terms, you get the same answer.

    The EU generates 9 times as much money trading outside the UK as it does with us, in absolute monetary terms.

    The UK generates a fraction more from non-EU trade than we do from EU trade, in absolute monetary terms.

    One of these parties can afford a trade war. Clue, it's not us.

    But BMW, cry the leavers.

    BMW sells a lot of cars in the UK. but they sell more in Germany, twice as many in America, and more than that in China. the UK represents ~10% of BMW sales

    In contrast, JLR sells more cars in the EU than any other market

    So one of these companies could afford a trade war. Clue, it's not JLR.
    Just wondering - how much of our trade with the EU is only counted as trade with the EU because it goes via Rotterdam to the wide world?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067


    "Trade War"?

    No, we would (if we had to) use WTO tariffs (on both sides), until a deal was reached.

    Not the end of the world.

    Actually, it would be very serious for a number of businesses in the UK. For my firm, as an asset manager with a lot of European clients, it would be a big issue.

    But, as I've already said, I think it would be in the interests of both sides to come to an accomadation very quickly.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    No, we would (if we had to) use WTO tariffs (on both sides), until a deal was reached.

    Not the end of the world.

    So the EU pays 4% on 10% of trade, and the UK pays 4% on 50% of trade.

    Bargain...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    weejonnie said:

    Just wondering - how much of our trade with the EU is only counted as trade with the EU because it goes via Rotterdam to the wide world?
    I take it Scott P is also including tourism in his calculations.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    Scott_P said:

    Exactly.

    And for those who insist on using absolute monetary terms, you get the same answer.

    The EU generates 9 times as much money trading outside the UK as it does with us, in absolute monetary terms.

    The UK generates a fraction more from non-EU trade than we do from EU trade, in absolute monetary terms.

    One of these parties can afford a trade war. Clue, it's not us.

    But BMW, cry the leavers.

    BMW sells a lot of cars in the UK. but they sell more in Germany, twice as many in America, and more than that in China. the UK represents ~10% of BMW sales

    In contrast, JLR sells more cars in the EU than any other market

    So one of these companies could afford a trade war. Clue, it's not JLR.
    As usual you're ignoring the issue of profitability or that trade wars don't take place any more - at most we're looking at a few % on import tariffs.

    And you didn't reply this morning when I enquired in what area of employment you're in.

    Surely you have some employment and are not merely bleating and tweeting to instructions ?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    Worst case scenario in my opinion is we go down the WTO route, with a maximum tariff of 4%. As someone mentioned previously that could easily be subsidized by the £8bn saving in the initial period.

    How does losing 5m jobs compared to our supposed loss of 3m jobs sound to Scott and the rest? I'm sure that would go down well across Europe.
    It's a little bit more complicated than that; supply chains are quite well integrated across Europe right now, and there are certain products - in particular in financial services - that fall completely out of the scope of the WTO. I'd also point out that trade deals also cover a lot of other stuff: transfer pricing, respect for intellectual property, etc.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027
    GeoffM said:

    Equally, being drawn further into an ever closer union requires " those arguing for change to explain to us clearly and unequivocally what change will mean."

    Why does only one side have to predict the future?

    OK I'll try it another way. We are in the EU, we know exactly what our trading arrangements are, we know what freedom of movement entails etc etc. It is not unreasonable therefore to want to know exactly what the consequences for trade, free movement etc will be if we leave. The onus is on LEAVE to tell us not keep dodging the issue.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    You and I will always disagree because I believe it that is the first duty of the government to increase the freedom of its citizens. Therefore a bilateral agreement with any country to allow freedom of labour would increase freedom, and I would look very favourably on it. You, however, have a different view.
    Hmm - A bilateral agreement with Nicaragua would increase freedom of labour to move, but I suspect (as pointed out by that young lady on QT) that more Nicaraguans would come to the UK than in the opposite direction.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    at most we're looking at a few % on import tariffs.

    So the EU pays 4% on 10% of trade, and the UK pays 4% on 50% of trade.

    Bargain...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @christopherhope: BREAKING BCC's John Longworth quits. David Davis MP tells me he is the first "Brexit martyr".

    Oh FFS.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Meanwhile, the EU looking to start getting central control of asylum policy...immigration next...

    'the status quo is not an option'

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6bae9d58-e3ac-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html#axzz42ABuMDVK
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    weejonnie said:

    Just wondering - how much of our trade with the EU is only counted as trade with the EU because it goes via Rotterdam to the wide world?
    300,000 TEUs go from the UK to Rotterdam and are shipped from there.
    1,200,000 TEUs go in the other direction.

    I would imagine that the ones we export through Rotterdam are of higher value, but it's hard to know for sure.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Scott_P said:

    Exactly.

    And for those who insist on using absolute monetary terms, you get the same answer.

    The EU generates 9 times as much money trading outside the UK as it does with us, in absolute monetary terms.

    The UK generates a fraction more from non-EU trade than we do from EU trade, in absolute monetary terms.

    One of these parties can afford a trade war. Clue, it's not us.

    But BMW, cry the leavers.

    BMW sells a lot of cars in the UK. but they sell more in Germany, twice as many in America, and more than that in China. the UK represents ~10% of BMW sales

    In contrast, JLR sells more cars in the EU than any other market

    So one of these companies could afford a trade war. Clue, it's not JLR.
    If you're going to write mercantilist tripe you might as well go the whole hog and remember that every pound of inports is a pound which doesn't go towards GDP, so cutting imports by more than exports boosts nominal GDP. In this bizzare instant end of trade scenario of yours, there is an awful lot of cash left stranded in the UK looking for something to buy, and a lot less cash in Brussels.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    Just glancing at the debate on here it all seems so bizarre to me.

    I've read PB for over 10 years, I'm interested in politics and I'm indifferent between Leave and Remain. I don't think either option will make much difference to the UK and its people going forward - there are some plusses and some minuses and some uncertainties on both sides of the equation.

    But I can tell that people on here are whipping themselves up into a frenzy in support of their chosen side. And people on here are more wound up about this than any other subject since the start of PB.

    Am I the only person on here who finds it all just a bit odd?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    I do hope John Longworth has lots to say about his suspension.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TOPPING said:

    From the piece: ...Hollande said there are..."no special dispensations from the rules of the single market or UK veto over the eurozone, which is very important for France".

    Which is exactly a non-discrimination clause although of course from the French perspective of them not wanting the UK to be able to discriminate against the eurozone rather than our desire for the opposite not to happen.
    Yes correct. its a two-way street.
    I agree with your comments at variance with viewcodes opinions.
    I don't think the main article is particularly fair.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    So the EU pays 4% on 10% of trade, and the UK pays 4% on 50% of trade.

    Bargain...

    What do those % equate to in cash terms as paid to the other party?

    That is the figure that matters.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    maaarsh said:

    If you're going to write mercantilist tripe

    Like Plato this morning, "it is necessary" to counter the continuous and endless stream of "they need us more than we need them" bullshit

    I would be delighted if we could stop
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,400
    Great thread article from Cyclefree!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That is the figure that matters.

    No, it really isn't, but, if you insist on using absolute monetary figures you get the same answer because of the relative size of the absolute monetary trade
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Scott_P said:

    Exactly.

    And for those who insist on using absolute monetary terms, you get the same answer.

    The EU generates 9 times as much money trading outside the UK as it does with us, in absolute monetary terms.

    The UK generates a fraction more from non-EU trade than we do from EU trade, in absolute monetary terms.

    One of these parties can afford a trade war. Clue, it's not us.

    But BMW, cry the leavers.

    BMW sells a lot of cars in the UK. but they sell more in Germany, twice as many in America, and more than that in China. the UK represents ~10% of BMW sales

    In contrast, JLR sells more cars in the EU than any other market

    So one of these companies could afford a trade war. Clue, it's not JLR.
    Isn't that JLR figure for the EU including the UK sales?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027
    HYUFD said:

    Norway and Switzerland are outside the EU altogether, Sweden and Denmark outside the Euro, Marine Le Pen leads the polls in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and even in Germany the anti-Euro AfD is on the rise, Euroscepticism is not completely unique to the UK!
    Sweden and Denmark are in exactly the same situation as the UK and I didn't mention Norway and Switzerland so I am genuinely not sure what point you are making. I think that most would agree that Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen are primarily right wing anti-immigration movements rather than anti-EU per se. I did say that in the last couple of years immigration is muddying the waters somewhat.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    philiph said:

    Isn't that JLR figure for the EU including the UK sales?

    No
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    Scott_P said:

    So the EU pays 4% on 10% of trade, and the UK pays 4% on 50% of trade.

    Bargain...
    That 10% trade is worth a lot more than then 50% so the UK would make a profit on the change.

    Bargain.

    And why don't you want to say what area of employment you work in ?

    I think we're going to have to assume you're nothing but a paid bleater and tweeter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,119

    That was yesterdays story or so I thought. Not sure how valid in the first place.

    For the loading gauge to be suitable for trains from Germany or other places on the continent to arrive and travel through then the entire route to London and beyond to Reading would be affected surely?
    As it is the trains are suitable for the UK and built in Derby.
    People in the know would probably see this as a very stupid thing to say, but I wonder if a trick was missed with Crossrail. In the west it runs right past Old Oak Common, where there will be an HS2 station, and in the west through Stratford where HS1 runs (although there it is at a very awkward angle for an interconnection).

    If they had built the central Crossrail section between Stratford and OOC to the same loading gauge as HS1, they could have connected the two and run services between the continent and the north.

    This would have been expensive, but the now-cancelled HS2-HS1 link was going to cost at least have a billion for a single line and the Crossrail link would have been much more flexible.

    There are a whole host of issues with this: such continental trains probably would not be able to stop at any of the central Crossrail stations (passengers wanting London would have to swap at Stratford); linking the two at Stratford may have been difficult; and there may not have been many paths for the trains (the central Crossrail section is due to start with a high utilisation). Oh, and demand for North-of-London trains direct from the continent is uncertain.

    But the flexibility ...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    ...and 50m don't...
    That will be cheery news to the 5m that do, and the politicians and governments relying on their votes.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569
    Good article by cyclefree - it strikes me that many of the defences of the EU here only serve to highlight its weaknesses. Talking about what the EU does well and how we see it changing strikes me as a far smarter approach to take, certainly to left-leaning voters.

    I take it I'm not the first person to suggest that John Longworth would be a formidable leader of the Leave campaign?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @johnestevens: Find it strange Ukip has so much to say about treatment of John Longworth after Suzanne Evans got sacked for backing Vote Leave
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    No, it really isn't, but, if you insist on using absolute monetary figures you get the same answer because of the relative size of the absolute monetary trade

    Perhaps an expert such as yourself can explain why Britain would lose out if 4% was added to all imports and exports?

    What would happen if we just cancel the sides out?

    And as a net importer, get 4% of the difference?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,119
    MikeL said:

    Just glancing at the debate on here it all seems so bizarre to me.

    I've read PB for over 10 years, I'm interested in politics and I'm indifferent between Leave and Remain. I don't think either option will make much difference to the UK and its people going forward - there are some plusses and some minuses and some uncertainties on both sides of the equation.

    But I can tell that people on here are whipping themselves up into a frenzy in support of their chosen side. And people on here are more wound up about this than any other subject since the start of PB.

    Am I the only person on here who finds it all just a bit odd?

    No. I do as well.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Scott_P said:

    No
    So as you have the figures for the markets, what are they? UK, rest of EU, USA China, Middle east Africa???
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010
    Sean_F said:

    If the government offends the public, it can be voted out. Implicitly, your argument is that you can't trust people to vote the right way, so you need an external body to override them.

    No, my argument is that we almost always get a government elected by less than 40% of voters, but it has the ability to introduce/abolish legislation opposed by the majority of voters.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    OllyT said:

    Sweden and Denmark are in exactly the same situation as the UK and I didn't mention Norway and Switzerland so I am genuinely not sure what point you are making. I think that most would agree that Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen are primarily right wing anti-immigration movements rather than anti-EU per se. I did say that in the last couple of years immigration is muddying the waters somewhat.
    That's certainly true of Geert Wilders: the Piel poll had more than half his supporters agreeing with the statement "The Euro is good for the Netherlands", although they are much less warm on Schengen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And as a net importer, get 4% of the difference?

    as a net importer...

    It would cost us more (imports) than we would make (exports)

    Do you see the problem there?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    I'm off to the Netherlands in May, haven't actually been before !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,586
    OllyT said:

    Sweden and Denmark are in exactly the same situation as the UK and I didn't mention Norway and Switzerland so I am genuinely not sure what point you are making. I think that most would agree that Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen are primarily right wing anti-immigration movements rather than anti-EU per se. I did say that in the last couple of years immigration is muddying the waters somewhat.
    Yes but it is immigration concerns which drove the rise of UKIP and is the main issue for those backing Leave so we are not so different from the Continent in that respect, indeed the rise of Trump is based on a similar platform
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    As an aside, and while I wouldn't pay too much attention to it, Wikipedia is showing an Ipsos Dutch opinion poll from Friday with the PVV having slipped behind the VVD. (Albeit by a tiny 1%.)
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    People in the know would probably see this as a very stupid thing to say, but I wonder if a trick was missed with Crossrail. In the west it runs right past Old Oak Common, where there will be an HS2 station, and in the west through Stratford where HS1 runs (although there it is at a very awkward angle for an interconnection).

    If they had built the central Crossrail section between Stratford and OOC to the same loading gauge as HS1, they could have connected the two and run services between the continent and the north.

    This would have been expensive, but the now-cancelled HS2-HS1 link was going to cost at least have a billion for a single line and the Crossrail link would have been much more flexible.

    There are a whole host of issues with this: such continental trains probably would not be able to stop at any of the central Crossrail stations (passengers wanting London would have to swap at Stratford); linking the two at Stratford may have been difficult; and there may not have been many paths for the trains (the central Crossrail section is due to start with a high utilisation). Oh, and demand for North-of-London trains direct from the continent is uncertain.

    But the flexibility ...
    Well I am not in the know - but my view is that you should always try at least to future proof transport infrastructure. Doing it on the cheap always comes back to bite us. Our railways are built to the wrong loading gauge and all railways have been built to the wrong track gauge. Nearly all our motorways were built too narrow and all their bridges built so as to limit future expansion.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    One of the great things of this site is the wide range of posters with experts in many fields who you can learn from.

    Now on the issue of the economics of BREXIT I see on one side successful and knowledgeable business / financial people including RCS, Charles, MaxPM and Richard Tyndall.

    On the other there are a few bleaters and tweeters of vague background.

    Now which side seems the most likely to be correct ?

  • MikeL said:

    Just glancing at the debate on here it all seems so bizarre to me.

    I've read PB for over 10 years, I'm interested in politics and I'm indifferent between Leave and Remain. I don't think either option will make much difference to the UK and its people going forward - there are some plusses and some minuses and some uncertainties on both sides of the equation.

    But I can tell that people on here are whipping themselves up into a frenzy in support of their chosen side. And people on here are more wound up about this than any other subject since the start of PB.

    Am I the only person on here who finds it all just a bit odd?

    PB was about 18 months old when I first started lurking here. The referendum has certainly caused the biggest ululations imho.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    No, it really isn't, but, if you insist on using absolute monetary figures you get the same answer because of the relative size of the absolute monetary trade
    The relative numbers, whether in absolute or percentage terms, don't matter. The question is, would it hurt both sides enough for them to want to avoid it, or just one.

    It's pretty clear to me that the answer in this case is "both", so a deal will be done to avoid it.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Is the % a new currency?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    Sometimes I find the dis-ingenuousness of pundits wearying. I see Guido is commenting on this Longworth suspension business, no problem there, but feels the need to add:

    Curious they felt the need to stress “no politician or interest group had any influence” on his suspension. Downing Street deny applying pressure

    No it isn't curious - people have been openly accusing Downing Street of applying pressure since it happened, so of course they felt the need to comment upon it. It may well be true there was pressure applied, I have no idea, but the phrasing of the reporting is clearly to indicate 'they denied it, so it must be true/partly true' without outright calling the statement itself false, and is as tiresome as any politician's obfuscation or distraction.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    as a net importer...

    It would cost us more (imports) than we would make (exports)

    Do you see the problem there?

    So you agree it's just 4% of the difference between import and export that is important.

    And a slight rebalancing will sort that out?

  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm off to the Netherlands in May, haven't actually been before !

    The coffee shops are fun.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    philiph said:

    So as you have the figures for the markets, what are they? UK, rest of EU, USA China, Middle east Africa???
    I'll answer myself:

    Jaguar Land Rover's global performance for the full year 2015 shows a balanced regional portfolio with record retail sales in UK, North America and Europe. Sales to Europe and UK each topped 100,000 vehicles for the first time ever: Europe was the company's largest sales region in 2015 with sales of 110,298, up 28% year on year; and with a growth of 21% over 2014 figures, a total of 100,636 Jaguars and Land Rovers were bought by customers in the UK. North American sales of 94,066 were 25% up on the previous year. The growth in these markets offset the performance in China and other overseas markets, at 92,474 and 89,592 down 24% and 7% year-on-year respectively. This reflected local market conditions, model transitions and the impact of the major industrial explosion at the Chinese port of Tianjin in August.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The question is, would it hurt both sides enough for them to want to avoid it, or just one.

    One side would be hurting more. By a factor of 5
  • At least Longworth has done the decent thing and resigned and no doubt leave will see him as a coup. The problem is that for everyone pro leave gains there will be many others who will be pro remain.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    One side would be hurting more. By a factor of 5
    Irrelevant.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm off to the Netherlands in May, haven't actually been before !

    Nice place, and great people, but tasteless ham and cheese for breakfast, lunch and dinner does get a bit tiresome. (You might get them for elevenses and tea as well).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Irrelevant.

    It's just a scratch !!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    edited March 2016
    Rubio takes Puerto Rico in a Hillary type deep south (70+%) margin, but turnout is truly appalling, looks like Rubio will get a quarter of the votes Romney did in 2012.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but it is immigration concerns which drove the rise of UKIP and is the main issue for those backing Leave so we are not so different from the Continent in that respect, indeed the rise of Trump is based on a similar platform
    UKIP turned immigration into an issue. A crude nationalistic issue; an issue to keep itself in existence. Carswell's first act on defecting from the tories was to debunk that campaign.

    The practical reality is that the anti muslim rhetoric of UKIP has nothing to do with the EU and we have significant non EU immigration from all sorts of places. India America Australia Pakistan for instance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    Scott_P said:

    So the EU pays 4% on 10% of trade, and the UK pays 4% on 50% of trade.

    Bargain...
    You have missed the obvious.

    If there is a 4% tariff each way then the UK Government can use the money it raises from the Import tariffs to compensate the exporters for the tariffs they have to pay to the EU. Given that there is was a trade deficit of some £59 billion in 2014 that means the UK Government could pay all the tariffs in full and still be £2.4 billion better off.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    My model forecast 6/3/16. Trump inching towards the nomination, 1237 required.

    Trump 1227
    Cruz 413
    Rubio 262
    Kasich 52
    Carson 84

    Carson is vastly overstated, due to the presence of very old polls in places such as California.
    There are also about 300 delegates from states so far unpolled, and Trump must surely have at least 20% or ~60 of them.

    The model has so far underestimated Trump by about 20, and over-estimated Rubio by about 20, mainly due to Rubio being in third place in states that allocate by Congressional District, and the model being a little too generous in its estimates there.

    So perhaps a more realistic point forecast at this time would put Trump on 1300, well over the winning line.

    Of course, we're only 40% way through the contest, and some of the state polls have been clearly wrong. But Trump seems to be strengthening in the national polls, and Cruz fading, whatever relevance that may have.

    It's hard to see Trump not winning a clear plurality of delegates. The only question appears to be whether he wins a majority, and what happens if he doesn't.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    One of the great things of this site is the wide range of posters with experts in many fields who you can learn from.

    Now on the issue of the economics of BREXIT I see on one side successful and knowledgeable business / financial people including RCS, Charles, MaxPM and Richard Tyndall.

    On the other there are a few bleaters and tweeters of vague background.

    Now which side seems the most likely to be correct ?

    I find that quite an arrogant assertion though I'm not terribly surprised by it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio takes Puerto Rico in a Hillary type deep south (70+%) margin, but turnout is truly appalling, looks like Rubio will get a quarter of the votes Romney did in 2012.

    RUBIO RISING !!!

    When was his cheerleader Cromwell last seen ?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    edited March 2016
    @RodCrosby I think Hillary will win in a landslide if Trump is clearly seen to have "won" the republican contest but falls 50 short and they go with Ryan or Rubio or some other chump.

    Have you added in Rubio's haul of 23 from PR ?
  • PB was about 18 months old when I first started lurking here. The referendum has certainly caused the biggest ululations imho.
    I've been lurking for years. Living in Edinburgh I have lived through the sharp end of IndyRef. Trust me, wait until 2 weeks to go and this will really get to fever pitch. The In/Out referendum will get people because it will focus them on how they see a core part of their personal identity - British or European. I'd expect Leave to increase as we get closer as more people decide British. But what do I know?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095

    RUBIO RISING !!!

    When was his cheerleader Cromwell last seen ?

    I've got him at zero now in the GOP book, I can't justify a penny more than that on him.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    RodCrosby said:

    My model forecast 6/3/16. Trump inching towards the nomination, 1237 required.

    Trump 1227
    Cruz 413
    Rubio 262
    Kasich 52
    Carson 84

    [snip]

    I imagine you've seen this article from fivethirtyeight.com, which comes to a broadly similar conclusion from a different viewpoint:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The In/Out referendum will get people because it will focus them on how they see a core part of their personal identity - British or European. I'd expect Leave to increase as we get closer as more people decide British. But what do I know?

    Maybe, but as a Scot who would describe myself as British, not European, I refuse to side with the xenophobes in either referendum.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    It's just a scratch !!!
    The point is, it would be more than a scratch for both. If I'm going to lose a finger I don't care if the other guy will lose an arm - we'll both act so neither of us hurts at all.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    OllyT said:

    I find that quite an arrogant assertion though I'm not terribly surprised by it.
    You find it arrogant that you can learn from more knowledgeable people ?

    Or you find it arrogant that RCS, Charles, MaxPM and Richard Tyndall are successful and knowledgeable business / financial people.

    If you know of a pro-EU group of PBers to compare with them please point them out.

    There's Southam - who is always worth reading - but his support for the EU appears to be more on 'human rights' grounds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,586

    UKIP turned immigration into an issue. A crude nationalistic issue; an issue to keep itself in existence. Carswell's first act on defecting from the tories was to debunk that campaign.

    The practical reality is that the anti muslim rhetoric of UKIP has nothing to do with the EU and we have significant non EU immigration from all sorts of places. India America Australia Pakistan for instance.
    Yes, well to be crude immigration wins UKIP votes, complaining about regulations on widget making and advocating a libertarian nirvana does not. Immigration from Eastern Europe was what fuelled UKIP's rise in market and coastal towns and the present quotas of migrants from Syria have boosted the Leave cause further
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    An interesting day in the USA - Peyton Manning retires, and Nancy Reagan dies.

    Manning is a first ballot Hall of Famer.

    I remember Reagan coming into office, after one of the most disappointing presidencies (Obama I suspect will be compared to it) in US history.

    A shining city on a hill, Morning in America, the bear in the woods - it was a great time to live in the US.
  • Looks like the EU could implode long before 23rd June as Brussels puts forward a proposition for a central asylum register from which refugees will be distributed throughout Europe (FT). What could possibly go wrong Mr Junckers
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    One of the great things of this site is the wide range of posters with experts in many fields who you can learn from.

    Now on the issue of the economics of BREXIT I see on one side successful and knowledgeable business / financial people including RCS, Charles, MaxPM and Richard Tyndall.

    On the other there are a few bleaters and tweeters of vague background.

    Now which side seems the most likely to be correct ?

    This "site" (actually the comment section) is right-leaning and Conservative-dominated. Of course many intelligent people are going to support leaving the EU, it's the logical consequence of a certain tendency in Conservatism. If the site were left-leaning, your conclusion would likely be the opposite
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767

    No. I do as well.
    Thanks - glad I'm not the only one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,586
    Pulpstar said:

    @RodCrosby I think Hillary will win in a landslide if Trump is clearly seen to have "won" the republican contest but falls 50 short and they go with Ryan or Rubio or some other chump.

    Have you added in Rubio's haul of 23 from PR ?

    Trump will win Michigan, Ohio and Florida and Illinois over the next fortnight, Rubio will drop out and there will be no brokered convention
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    I imagine you've seen this article from fivethirtyeight.com, which comes to a broadly similar conclusion from a different viewpoint:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/

    I hadn't, but thanks for it. Nate Silver is clearly desperately playing catch-up.

    (^_-)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    Pulpstar said:

    I've got him at zero now in the GOP book, I can't justify a penny more than that on him.
    Rubio reminds me somewhat of David Miliband or Michael Portillo.

    Someone who was bigged up too much and too soon and believed all they had to do was turn up to win.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The point is, it would be more than a scratch for both. If I'm going to lose a finger I don't care if the other guy will lose an arm - we'll both act so neither of us hurts at all.

    Except they would lose a finger, we would lose an arm.

    To argue that we wouldn't care, is not realistic.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    Trump will win Michigan, Ohio and Florida and Illinois over the next fortnight, Rubio will drop out and there will be no brokered convention
    All things are possible.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    philiph said:

    Isn't that JLR figure for the EU including the UK sales?
    As someone says 'no'. I am not sure you realise just how many cars JLR makes these days. They cannot all be sold in the UK. The EU is a major market. Hundreds of millions for gaws sake and looking for viable alternatives to BMW and Merc. Its the same for MINIs.
    Lets be clear - MINIs are built in Holland. Until recently they were built in Austria. Jaguars and Land Rovers are also built in India.
    In the nostalgic 50s British car managment was crap. Why should foreign owned companies get involved in trade wars?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:


    Have you added in Rubio's haul of 23 from PR ?

    Yes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    You find it arrogant that you can learn from more knowledgeable people ?

    Certainly one should do that. Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:

    - The PM
    - The Chancellor of the Exchequer
    - The Home Secretary
    - The Business Secretary
    - The Foreign Secretary
    - The leaders of all the GB political parties with more than one MP
    - The IMF
    - Goldman Sachs
    - Credit Suisse
    - Citibank
    - BNP Paribas
    - The CBI
    - The TUC
    - The 20 finance ministers of the G20

    There are many more, of course.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    EPG said:

    This "site" (actually the comment section) is right-leaning and Conservative-dominated. Of course many intelligent people are going to support leaving the EU, it's the logical consequence of a certain tendency in Conservatism. If the site were left-leaning, your conclusion would likely be the opposite
    Certainly and I take that into account.

    But on the EU we have a split in the right or more precisely a split in the Conservative supporters here.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    Except they would lose a finger, we would lose an arm.

    To argue that we wouldn't care, is not realistic.
    Are you wilfully missing the point? I am taking no position on which side would be hurt worse as it's utterly irrelevant. Both sides will be hurt badly enough for them to want to avoid it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420

    Certainly one should do that. Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:

    - The PM
    - The Chancellor of the Exchequer
    - The Home Secretary
    - The Business Secretary
    - The Foreign Secretary
    - The leaders of all the GB political parties with more than one MP
    - The IMF
    - Goldman Sachs
    - Credit Suisse
    - Citibank
    - BNP Paribas
    - The CBI
    - The TUC
    - The 20 finance ministers of the G20

    There are many more, of course.
    In other words the establishment.

    As I'm not a member I'll take into account their vested interests are not necessarily the same as mine.
  • Certainly one should do that. Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:

    - The PM
    - The Chancellor of the Exchequer
    - The Home Secretary
    - The Business Secretary
    - The Foreign Secretary
    - The leaders of all the GB political parties with more than one MP
    - The IMF
    - Goldman Sachs
    - Credit Suisse
    - Citibank
    - BNP Paribas
    - The CBI
    - The TUC
    - The 20 finance ministers of the G20

    There are many more, of course.
    Not sure about the DUP
  • RodCrosby said:

    My model forecast 6/3/16. Trump inching towards the nomination, 1237 required.

    Trump 1227
    Cruz 413
    Rubio 262
    Kasich 52
    Carson 84

    Carson is vastly overstated, due to the presence of very old polls in places such as California.
    There are also about 300 delegates from states so far unpolled, and Trump must surely have at least 20% or ~60 of them.

    The model has so far underestimated Trump by about 20, and over-estimated Rubio by about 20, mainly due to Rubio being in third place in states that allocate by Congressional District, and the model being a little too generous in its estimates there.

    So perhaps a more realistic point forecast at this time would put Trump on 1300, well over the winning line.

    Of course, we're only 40% way through the contest, and some of the state polls have been clearly wrong. But Trump seems to be strengthening in the national polls, and Cruz fading, whatever relevance that may have.

    It's hard to see Trump not winning a clear plurality of delegates. The only question appears to be whether he wins a majority, and what happens if he doesn't.

    Have you taken account of the recent move against Trump caused by the debate and Romney? Is there not a recent shift as seen in lousiana? Maybe we have seen Peak Trump. My money is mainly on Cruz though he is a nasty piece of work I admit.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:'

    ooh let's all tug our forelocks at Richard's list of important people



  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Are you wilfully missing the point? I am taking no position on which side would be hurt worse as it's utterly irrelevant. Both sides will be hurt badly enough for them to want to avoid it.
    Thats why if we left the EU we would join the EEA/EFTA. All of which would make little difference to where we are now. Except we would have no votes.

    And my view is you are more wrong than Scott is less right.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Yes.
    It's interesting that the RNC appears to have culled its SuperDelegates this year, bundling them into the electoral result as pledged delegates.

    On the face of it, that would help Trump...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420

    Certainly one should do that. Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:

    - The PM
    - The Chancellor of the Exchequer
    - The Home Secretary
    - The Business Secretary
    - The Foreign Secretary
    - The leaders of all the GB political parties with more than one MP
    - The IMF
    - Goldman Sachs
    - Credit Suisse
    - Citibank
    - BNP Paribas
    - The CBI
    - The TUC
    - The 20 finance ministers of the G20

    There are many more, of course.
    And some other things those and similar people have told us include:

    Nothing is happening in Rotherham ditto many other places
    Stafford hospital is safe ditto many others
    Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person ditto many others
    Politicians expenses are honest
    Elections in Tower Hamlets are fait
    Saddam Hussein has WMD
    There will be no more than 10-15,000 Eastern European migrants to the UK
    The banks are well run
    There will not be a recession in 2008
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    Scott_P said:

    Maybe, but as a Scot who would describe myself as British, not European, I refuse to side with the xenophobes in either referendum.
    Did ye, aye?

    http://tinyurl.com/q9ssg87
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    In other words the establishment.

    As I'm not a member I'll take into account their vested interests are not necessarily the same as mine.

    In other words, you take into account, not how knowledgeable someone is, and whether they are completely independent, but whether they agree with you.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    Thats why if we left the EU we would join the EEA/EFTA. All of which would make little difference to where we are now. Except we would have no votes.

    And my view is you are more wrong than Scott is less right.
    I do so love the way you keep repeating this myth as if you actually believe it. Quite sad really. You have spouted the same rubbish for so long now that you have managed to convince yourself.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Certainly one should do that. Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:

    - The PM
    - The Chancellor of the Exchequer
    - The Home Secretary
    - The Business Secretary
    - The Foreign Secretary
    - The leaders of all the GB political parties with more than one MP
    - The IMF
    - Goldman Sachs
    - Credit Suisse
    - Citibank
    - BNP Paribas
    - The CBI
    - The TUC
    - The 20 finance ministers of the G20

    There are many more, of course.
    Where do the currently leaderless BCC stand?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    And some other things those and similar people have told us include:

    Nothing is happening in Rotherham ditto many other places
    Stafford hospital is safe ditto many others
    Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person ditto many others
    Politicians expenses are honest
    Elections in Tower Hamlets are fait
    Saddam Hussein has WMD
    There will be no more than 10-15,000 Eastern European migrants to the UK
    The banks are well run
    There will not be a recession in 2008

    The G20, Citibank, and the IMF told you that?

    I never knew.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    runnymede said:

    'Here's a list of some knowledgeable people and organisations:'

    ooh let's all tug our forelocks at Richard's list of important people

    Well, even you have to admit, runnymede, it's more impressive than @another_richard's!
This discussion has been closed.