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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment ef

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    What on earth are these pessimists worried about?

    My card bet has won already.

    Well done, corker of a match
    Always a game for cards anyway, but not been a NLD with so much on it for a long time. Took short odds for 40+ booking points, also got a small stakes spread buy at 61.

    Fingers crossed for your 5-1 bet!
    Cheers
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    She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

    This and the German threat only fired me up to start local organisation talks.

    "He says there will be consequences. Imagine a French man telling Thatcher there would be consequences. He'd be walking like John Wayne for a week. Consequences, you little man? Consequences? You've never stuck around long enough to see the consequences of your repeated capitulation in the face of attack. Your countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day." Katie Hopkins
    Could you argue that the Paris commune successfully defended Paris? (only going by Wiki. my GCSE/O-level pilot history missed out this period)
    No. Germans in January 1870 had forced the French Govt to sign a ceasefire and armistice. The Germans chose not to occupy Paris under that Treaty. A few months later the Commune took over Paris and in May the French govt removed them.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Paul Quigley
    QUOTE-OF-THE-WEEK:

    "The EU is the old Soviet Union dressed in Western clothes."

    - Mikael Gorbachev https://t.co/rJlhO4pKOW
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    2 - 2 !!
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    Bollocks

    There goes my chance to trouser £1,260
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,955

    Roger said:

    Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
    Dear Roger, have you considered that Katie's article probably resonates with more voters views than your own? You are being given the opportunity to learn something.
    Are there that many ESN voters in the country?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited March 2016
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
    Your inner Mary Whitehouse is showing, luv.
    It's moronic I can only imagine you haven't read it....

    (OT. Have you seen 'Hail Caesar' yet? I really enjoyed it and who taught Channing Tatum to sing dance and act! Great cameo from your mate RF)
    Roger, the clue was in the link - www.dailymail. You reading that is just as inevitable as Mary Whitehouse going out to see Last Tango...!! With a similar outcome.

    Hail Caesar was on the list for today but Herself has a nasty cold, so I will wait until her Typhoid Annie status has subsided. (I just wish other folks with stinking colds would stay indoors. Is there an Old Wives Tale that the best way to cure a cold is to travel on public transport or go to the cinema?)
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Interesting statistics:

    63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980
    63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988
    62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004
    62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012

    Hashtag diminishing demographic

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699?utm_content=buffered237&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz41vy43OHg

    A very useful article for PBers.
    Yes. Hovever the GOP
    Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
    Incorrect.

    Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.

    Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.

    The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".

    Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
    Incorrect.

    Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
    Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.

    Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
    Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.

    Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
    By the time Texas becomes a swing state the Democrats would have won the presidency a dozen times by always winning Florida. A realignment will happen long before then.
    Nothing is forever in politics.

    However the GOP is in terrible trouble in POTUS terms and presently they have no answer to the conundrum.
    Trump will turn it into a positive. Elect me and I'll clean up politics. Starting with the GOP...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,290
    RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Interesting statistics:

    63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980
    63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988
    62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004
    62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012

    Hashtag diminishing demographic

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699?utm_content=buffered237&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz41vy43OHg

    A very useful article for PBers.
    Yes. Hovever the GOP
    Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
    Incorrect.

    Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.

    Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.

    The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".

    Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
    Incorrect.

    Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
    Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.

    Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
    Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.

    Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
    By the time Texas becomes a swing

    Nothing is forever in politics.

    However the GOP is in terrible trouble in POTUS terms and presently they have no answer to the conundrum.
    Trump will turn it into a positive. Elect me and I'll clean up politics. Starting with the GOP...
    Given his record I don't think Trump could clean up anything!
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    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
    Dear Roger, have you considered that Katie's article probably resonates with more voters views than your own? You are being given the opportunity to learn something.
    Are there that many ESN voters in the country?
    What does ESN stand for? Erasmus Student Network?

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Bollocks

    There goes my chance to trouser £1,260

    I am on a draw. The Gods smile on Leicester again...surely...
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Interesting statistics:

    63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980
    63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988
    62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004
    62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012

    Hashtag diminishing demographic

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699?utm_content=buffered237&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz41vy43OHg

    A very useful article for PBers.
    Yes. Hovever the GOP
    Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
    Incorrect.

    Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.

    Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.

    The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".

    Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
    Incorrect.

    Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
    Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.

    Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
    Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.

    Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
    By the time Texas becomes a sw will happen long before then.
    Nothing is forever in politics.

    However the GOP is in terrible trouble in POTUS terms and presently they have no answer to the conundrum.
    Trump will turn it into a positive. Elect me and I'll clean up politics. Starting with the GOP...
    I'm not sure how clean he is given his Las Vegas connections.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,149
    edited March 2016

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
    Dear Roger, have you considered that Katie's article probably resonates with more voters views than your own? You are being given the opportunity to learn something.
    Are there that many ESN voters in the country?
    What does ESN stand for? Erasmus Student Network?

    As a leftie I wouldn’t describe Wail readers as ESN. Deluded yes.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,149

    Bollocks

    There goes my chance to trouser £1,260

    I am on a draw. The Gods smile on Leicester again...surely...
    Your 3000-1 is still alive, too!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,290

    HYUFD said:


    Much like Labour the GOP need to get the fanaticism of the base out of the system, that will only come by nominating losing ideologues ie Trump in 2016 and Cruz in 2020. The answer will then be the half-Hispanic, JFK lookalike likely next governor of Texas and son of the former governor of Florida George P Bush, however it will take 16 years out of the White House to get there

    Are you seriously arguing that the answer to the Republicans' problems is the injection of the right demographic blood into the Bush dynasty?

    Far from being an ideologue, Trump is the only candidate throwing out the ideological baggage that the party has accumulated since the Reagan era.
    Yes, pretty much, for all their faults the Bushes are the only Republicans to have won a presidential election in the last 28 years.

    Trump is anti immigration, anti Obamacare etc. If he wins, fine, obviously the GOP are electable and problem solved, George P Bush will only be the answer if he and then Cruz both lose
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

    Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
    My recent model here showed the likely strong REMAIN vote in Scotland, Wales & N.I. had the effect of moving the overall UK vote by around 3.25%. Therefore, if the overall result were to be 52% vs 48% in favour of REMAIN, this would suggest that England, including London, had voted LEAVE. Very tricky for Dave & Co. were this to be the case.
    Wales I think will be closer to England, Scotland strong Remain, NI in between
    As ever ..... the Welsh are really English in sheep's clothing.

    (Excuse me whilst I don my tin hat).
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241

    Bollocks

    There goes my chance to trouser £1,260

    I am on a draw. The Gods smile on Leicester again...surely...
    Looks like it could be a great result for Leicester
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    edited March 2016
    BT Sport what in the name of Holy Chuffery buggering have you done?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,290

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

    Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
    My recent model here showed the like.
    Wales I think will be closer to England, Scotland strong Remain, NI in between
    As ever ..... the Welsh are really English in sheep's clothing.

    (Excuse me whilst I don my tin hat).
    Well many polls put Wales and the Midlands together, thing of
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    2 - 2 FT
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Bollocks

    There goes my chance to trouser £1,260

    I am on a draw. The Gods smile on Leicester again...surely...
    Excellent outcome for you.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. Eagles, is something wrong? [Besides your taste in fashion and grasp of classical history, obviously].
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    Mr. Eagles, is something wrong? [Besides your taste in fashion and grasp of classical history, obviously].

    We're in injury time in the most important North London Derby in decades, and BT Sport lose the picture feed
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited March 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

    Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
    My recent model here showed the likely strong REMAIN vote in Scotland, Wales & N.I. had the effect of moving the overall UK vote by around 3.25%. Therefore, if the overall result were to be 52% vs 48% in favour of REMAIN, this would suggest that England, including London, had voted LEAVE. Very tricky for Dave & Co. were this to be the case.
    Wales I think will be closer to England, Scotland strong Remain, NI in between
    As ever ..... the Welsh are really English in sheep's clothing.

    (Excuse me whilst I don my tin hat).
    Better than the usual jibe, that the Welsh are really Welsh in sheep....
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    BT Sport what in the name of Holy Chuffery buggering have you done?

    Unforgivable - and I am neutral
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,149

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

    Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
    My recent model here showed the likely strong REMAIN vote in Scotland, Wales & N.I. had the effect of moving the overall UK vote by around 3.25%. Therefore, if the overall result were to be 52% vs 48% in favour of REMAIN, this would suggest that England, including London, had voted LEAVE. Very tricky for Dave & Co. were this to be the case.
    Wales I think will be closer to England, Scotland strong Remain, NI in between
    As ever ..... the Welsh are really English in sheep's clothing.

    (Excuse me whilst I don my tin hat).
    Better than the usual jibe, that the Welsh are really Welsh in sheep....
    It’s the bl*&$y immigrants and second home owners!
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    BT Sport what in the name of Holy Chuffery buggering have you done?

    Unforgivable - and I am neutral
    Me too
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited March 2016
    Remember this....

    ITV apologises after cameras miss only goal in Merseyside derby

    Gosling hit an 118th-minute goal to take Everton into the fifth round, but after viewers had sat through nearly two goalless hours ITV had already cut to a scheduled ad break moments before the winning goal.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2009/feb/05/itv-fa-cup-coverage

    OR....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/7823692/Viewers-miss-opening-England-goal-after-ITV-shows-commercial.html
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    Better than feared I suppose - how many shots did we have vs gunners.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    They'll be dancing in the street of Leicester after that result...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. Eagles, could be worse. The BBC lost* the whole F1 season to pay TV.

    *And by 'lost' I, of course, mean 'gave'.
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    Mr. Eagles, could be worse. The BBC lost* the whole F1 season to pay TV.

    *And by 'lost' I, of course, mean 'gave'.

    Don't blame the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation for that, blame the hated Government led by Cameron who squeezed their funding.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. Eagles, the BBC had tens of millions for the concept (alone) of The Voice. They could've withdrawn entirely from F1 and it would've gone to Channel 4.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Better than feared I suppose - how many shots did we have vs gunners.

    They were much better than us when they had the ball. The front players were far more incisive. Kane needs help. But a point is more than I thought we'd get, so I'll take it happily.

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    Mr. Eagles, the BBC had tens of millions for the concept (alone) of The Voice. They could've withdrawn entirely from F1 and it would've gone to Channel 4.

    Is all about ratings. Terrestrial broadcasters know F1 doesn't attract the ratings of shows like the voice.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. Eagles, presuming that's an ironic post?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Interesting statistics:

    63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980
    63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988
    62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004
    62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012

    Hashtag diminishing demographic

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699?utm_content=buffered237&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz41vy43OHg

    A very useful article for PBers.
    Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
    Yes. Hovever the GOP
    Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
    Incorrect.

    Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.

    Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.

    The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".

    Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
    Incorrect.

    Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
    Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.

    Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
    Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.

    Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
    By the time Texas becomes a swing state the Democrats would have won the presidency a dozen times by always winning Florida. A realignment will happen long before then.
    But the Democrats have won Texas several times in recent memory - 1960 - 1964 - 1968 -1976.
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    New Thread New Thread

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    Julia Hartley-Brewer ‎@JuliaHB1
    France (unemployment rate: 10%) is lecturing the UK (unemployment rate 5%) on how to run our country & economy.
    Gee, thanks but no thanks.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I see Telegraph today has gone big on Cameron trying to bury the accurate immigration statistics. Its a full front page story. This is going to become too big for him to sustain if he doesn't release them.

    The big question is whether he will be able to sit on them until after 23 June (my birthday btw!).
    Surely there's no mystery - 600000 came in - who need NI numbers to work - 300000 left, leaving 300000 as the NET migration figure.
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    justin124 said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Interesting statistics:

    63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980
    63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988
    62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004
    62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012

    Hashtag diminishing demographic

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699?utm_content=buffered237&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz41vy43OHg

    A very useful article for PBers.
    Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
    Yes. Hovever the GOP
    Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
    Incorrect.

    Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.

    Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.

    The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".

    Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
    Incorrect.

    Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
    Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.

    Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
    Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.

    Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
    By the time Texas becomes a swing state the Democrats would have won the presidency a dozen times by always winning Florida. A realignment will happen long before then.
    But the Democrats have won Texas several times in recent memory - 1960 - 1964 - 1968 -1976.
    I don't think 40 years ago counts as recent. That was before electoral map stabilised.
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268

    HYUFD said:


    Much like Labour the GOP need to get the fanaticism of the base out of the system, that will only come by nominating losing ideologues ie Trump in 2016 and Cruz in 2020. The answer will then be the half-Hispanic, JFK lookalike likely next governor of Texas and son of the former governor of Florida George P Bush, however it will take 16 years out of the White House to get there

    Are you seriously arguing that the answer to the Republicans' problems is the injection of the right demographic blood into the Bush dynasty?

    Far from being an ideologue, Trump is the only candidate throwing out the ideological baggage that the party has accumulated since the Reagan era.
    I find it quite patronising when people claim us ethnic minorities are only not voting for a party because their candidates aren't brown enough.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Yvette Cooper
    Or a very big piece of stone.... https://t.co/d4y5Ji78A3

This discussion has been closed.