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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment effort to stop Trump
The next rounds take place this weekend with four states electing delegates for the Republicans (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine) and four for the Democrats (Kansas,Louisiana,Maine and Nebraska). Much has been made of the apparent desire of the GOP establishment to stop Trump. Don’t expect it to come to anything.
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I reckon AV would be the only way to stop Trump getting the nomination
(It wouldn't, I suspect: Trump's support has gone up as the minor candidates dropped out).
There is no case I can make right now for having any sort of +ve position at all on Hillary, as all the other (realistic) contenders are reckoned to be stronger than Trump from a purely mathematical PoV.
What's happening to the Tory vote ? Falling off a cliff !
I wonder if we'll get Cruz/Rubio crossover?
As a few people here have already suggested, there are two plausible outcomes now: Trump gets over the threshold and gets the nomination straightforwardly, or a contested convention. A Kasich surge, which I'd welcome, will almost certainly result in the latter if successful since he's coming from so far behind.
Trump as the potential nominee still seems like a bad comedy whose credits are overdue to roll. Perhaps they never will, but it still feels like something out of a bad movie. Then again, I guess Blairites felt the same way about Corbyn's successful campaign for Labour leader.
Much of UKIP vote def going back to Labour, which could be important for Labour in the valleys, where a drubbing was on the cards in the Assembly elections.
Whereas Trump supporters may have made their minds up, these interventions are surely going to increase doubts about him amongst floating voters - ie floating GE voters.
Who would actually vote for this pair of clowns now? Even Corbyn would probably be better....
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/705579415510634496
Thank feck for that. ... as it is all the extra tax relief incurred with the massive acceleration in contributions will surely muck up the deficit target this year....
An unexpected pro-brexit.
The (financial) times are a changing..
https://tinyurl.com/hjyqx95
(clear your cache if the paywall appears).
..
...
Night!
But here goes for one night only..
Ensure you have nominated beneficiaries for any pension pots aka expression of wish. Don't just leave the pot to your spouse but instead think of leaving some to your kids or grandkids.
Iht planning without the gifting or loss of control over money you might need.
#coys
Millions of words and tweets. Neither gonna happen in reaching their goal....
The severely wounded Chancellor is clearly struggling to square the circle in attempting to keep Government borrowing under control. Last year he was forced to capitulate as regards plans to severely curtail tax credits and now this.
Why is it that Chancellors continue to meddle with stealth taxes and in attacking peoples' savings instead of taking a far more honest, common sense approach to the problem?
The simple fact is that the standard rate of income tax has been progressively reduced from 35% right down to its present level of 20%, whilst at the same time, the basic personal allowance has been increased to £10,000, both resulting in once unimaginable reductions in income tax.
The truth of the matter is that these reductions have gone too far in terms of what the country can and can't afford.
The Chancellor should stop messing about and announce at least a 2p or 3p increase in the basic rate of income tax, with unfortunately the prospect of further rises to come.
Hopefully such necessary action might just help to shore up the value of Sterling which has fallen by an alarming 10% or more over just the last few weeks.
I'm less a believer in point one. Why? Because, however you cut it, private sector debt levels are simply lower in the Eurozone. The St Louis Federal Reserve has a website devoted to economic data (called, wonderfully, FRED) which can be found here: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
In it they have fabulously detailed data on debts by country. And while the Eurozone has many, many problems, debt is simply not one of them. In the UK, household debt is (what) 170% of GDP. It's more than 100% in a whole bunch of major economies. In Italy, France and Germany, it's barely more than 50%. This doesn't mean these economies are all in great shape (obviously), but it means expecting that the next Eurozone crisis will emerge from over indebted consumers on the continent is a classic example of recency bias (the UK and the US has housing debt crises therefore...), rather than any kind of sensible analysis of the data.
55-60 Fav
50-55 2nd fav
60-65 3rd Fav
45-50 4th Fav
Leave should be a minimum of 3.8 based on bands market but in fact it's 3.55/3.6 in the result market.
Are people who want to Leave artificially forcing Leave down in the result market?
Unsupervised children will be given sugar and a free puppy.
If you recall, the murder weapon was never found.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/04/us/oj-simpson-property-knife/index.html
For some reason that FRED site is actually reporting our household debt to income ratio which is how the UK typically measures debt ratios but is not the international standard, debt to GDP is.
West Ham 1-0 Spurs?
http://patch.com/georgia/lawrenceville-ga/presidential-primary-results-trump-edged-rubio-gwinnett
Kansas
Trump 35
Cruz 29
Rubio 17
Kasich 13
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitZjBsU0tIVEY2ZGM/view
Michigan
Trump 42
Cruz 20
Kasich 18
Rubio 14
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitVk1YRTVOVnVTTFk/view
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/12184260/Harvard-Law-School-to-scrap-crest-over-links-to-slavery.html
Scotland. Voting Brexit seems to me to be the best chance we have to save the union. The SNP is threatening to hold another referendum if we vote out. I suspect they don’t really want to (they do good threats). But their members may force them into it and Westminster may allow it (it isn’t a devolved issue). If they do, they won’t win.
The falling oil price has destroyed an already ropey economic case. And the way the timing works, the UK would already be out of the EU before Scotland was out of the UK — leaving it stranded in the North Sea while it reapplied — in the full knowledge that it would have to take the euro and the EU’s fiscal limits with no UK-style federal transfers. Who would vote for that? Quite. And another decisive loss really would be the end of the matter. Vote Brexit to save the union.
Given the timetable of any Scotref2 is not a devolved matter, she seems to have a point.
In contests where seats didn't change hands (CON & LAB Holds)?
Some cliff!
(No, I'm not counting their HOLD where there wasn't a Lib Dem in the previous election....)
http://www.scotsman.com/news/five-snp-mps-among-a-dozen-who-racked-up-unpaid-expenses-1-4043933
http://i.imgur.com/SfxWNCq.jpg
titter
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980
63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988
62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004
62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Hashtag diminishing demographic
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699?utm_content=buffered237&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz41vy43OHg
The basic historical fact, accepted by anybody who has more than minus infinity brain cells, is that O.J. Simpson committed the murders. That, in the long term (i.e. when we are all dead and it's all in the history books), matters far more than petty-bourgeois deviations such as punishment or acquittal or imprisonment or freedom.
Additionally the hispanic demographic is unsurprisingly proving difficult for Trump. Romney secured 27% of their vote in 12, presently the best estimate is that Trump is managing only 15% of this increasingly important bloc that is vital in a number of swing states.
The Tories seem to be imploding to no one's advantage. Osborne's plan to remove top rate tax relief on pension contributions is so eminently fair to make it a no brainer yet he cant even get it through. Corbyn and his backers have a lot to answer for
COYS
BTW all the people on here calling for tax rises, here's an idea: let's spend less. It might just catch on one day.
And to think the party has gone from a delusional leader who couldn't see anything wrong with his actions, to a would-be PM who's response to a basic "did you spend too much" was an outright "no", to a complete loon who thinks not only that we should be buddy buddy with all the world's worst scumbags but that we aren't spending enough.
Donald Trump Will Not Be Elected President Of The United States
DTWNBEPOTUS
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-donald-trump-wont-be-elected-president/2016/03/03/50dafd0e-e169-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html
How many other governments have achieved that? Not many, it only happened twice under Thatcher.
American politics and its division of power makes it harder I suspect for parties to reach rock bottom though. It's hard to say the Republican message is unpopular when they control the House, the Senate and most of the time until a few weeks ago the SCOTUS.
Sure higher earners avoid (perfectly legally) more tax but that's because they're paying more tax from what they earn themselves, not because money is being gifted to them. We should never forget that.
It only became a problem (or tax dodge) when Labour took the ceiling off the maximum contributions as a percentage of income, and it became possible to make large one off payments.