Trump is getting new voters though, 20,000 Dems switching party in MA. Look at the VA turnout too !
Turnout up all across the board.
Sanders is basically getting Hillary's 2008 vote + some young people.
Hillary's margins amongst black voters are so enormous though her lead is far better than it looks.
She'll run up a tremendous victory in LA today, which will overwhelm what I expect to be Bernie victories in the other two states and will gain another +20 voters I think.
The other 2 states are only caucuses not primaries so far easier for Sanders enthusiasts to organise and win.
Turnout is certainly up in GOP primaries but before anyone gets too carried away Trump has only won 34% of that vote to date. One could equally well argue that large numbers are turning out in GOP primaries to stop Trump.
As I pointed out earlier the exit polls in the primaries so far have shown only 49% of GOP voters would be happy with a Trump candidacy compared to 79% of Dems happy with Clinton. In 2012 GOP voters were 63% happy with Romney and and 77% were happy with McCain in 2008 and both went on to lose.
Trump's voters are probably the most energised and vocal (except maybe for Sanders) but it doesn't follow that there are more of them!
The bigger question the Map Truthers have to answer is why the fuck do the BBC bother with any weather in Scotland at all? It's always adequately covered by "It'll be shite." On those four days a year they are wrong, the Beeb can shrug and go "so sue me...."
Lots of rich Republicans will cross over to Hillary compared to when Romney/McCain were in the field Not many poor Democrats will cross over to Trump compared to when Obama was running Thus I see Hillary upside and am reluctant to bet on Trump beyond the convention
Quite a lot of poor Democrats won't vote for Hillary either. The key question may not be swing voters so much as GOTV.
Trump as GOP candidate will be a massive boost to Democrats' GOTV.
And yet he is doing best in open, rather than closed, primaries (which will count against him today).
Lots of rich Republicans will cross over to Hillary compared to when Romney/McCain were in the field Not many poor Democrats will cross over to Trump compared to when Obama was running Thus I see Hillary upside and am reluctant to bet on Trump beyond the convention
Quite a lot of poor Democrats won't vote for Hillary either. The key question may not be swing voters so much as GOTV.
Trump as GOP candidate will be a massive boost to Democrats' GOTV.
It really wouldn't.
All the Trump vs Clinton polls are like 42-38.
Turnout will be awful.
It will be a very close election so turnout will be relatively high, it always is in close elections, the lowest turnout in the last 60 years was in 1996 when Bill Clinton comfortably beat Bob Dole by more than 8% and turnout fell to just 49%. The highest turnout was 62.8% in the very close 1960 election when JFK beat Nixon by less than 1%
Lots of rich Republicans will cross over to Hillary compared to when Romney/McCain were in the field Not many poor Democrats will cross over to Trump compared to when Obama was running Thus I see Hillary upside and am reluctant to bet on Trump beyond the convention
Quite a lot of poor Democrats won't vote for Hillary either. The key question may not be swing voters so much as GOTV.
Trump as GOP candidate will be a massive boost to Democrats' GOTV.
And yet he is doing best in open, rather than closed, primaries (which will count against him today).
Lots of rich Republicans will cross over to Hillary compared to when Romney/McCain were in the field Not many poor Democrats will cross over to Trump compared to when Obama was running Thus I see Hillary upside and am reluctant to bet on Trump beyond the convention
Quite a lot of poor Democrats won't vote for Hillary either. The key question may not be swing voters so much as GOTV.
Trump as GOP candidate will be a massive boost to Democrats' GOTV.
And yet he is doing best in open, rather than closed, primaries (which will count against him today).
Lots of rich Republicans will cross over to Hillary compared to when Romney/McCain were in the field Not many poor Democrats will cross over to Trump compared to when Obama was running Thus I see Hillary upside and am reluctant to bet on Trump beyond the convention
Quite a lot of poor Democrats won't vote for Hillary either. The key question may not be swing voters so much as GOTV.
Agreed, the traditional concept of swing voter is not relevant here, the only difference in my guess being that I doubt Hillary will lose many voters relative to Obama
I also think this Klan business will be helpful in mobilising black voters, and Sanders's weaknesses are good for Hillary here And of course she will win more Latinos than Obama '12. As the Americans say, Duh
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988 62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004 62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Additionally the hispanic demographic is unsurprisingly proving difficult for Trump. Romney secured 27% of their vote in 12, presently the best estimate is that Trump is managing only 15% of this increasingly important bloc that is vital in a number of swing states.
Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
Yes. Hovever the GOP need to to heed their own advice after the 2012 defeat when they realised that alienating vast swathes of the electorate wasn't the route to the White House given the demographic changes and the need to appeal to swing voters.
The question is how many times they will lose before the dime finally drops?
Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
Incorrect.
Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.
Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.
The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".
Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, and often hard right as a legacy of fleeing the communists. Hispanics in the SW are much more working class, and nearly all of Mexican or Central American heritage. It is a very different demographic and migration.
I suspect part of Rubio's problem is that his Hispanic appeal is mostly to the former. The others will be voting Democrat if they vote at all. Class trumps ethnicity in most elections.
Incorrect.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31%
Pew Research :
"Hispanic Origin. Hispanic eligible voters in Florida have a different Hispanic origin profile to Hispanic eligible voters nationwide. Only 9% of Hispanic eligible voters in Florida are of Mexican origin, 27% are of Puerto Rican origin, 31% are of Cuban origin and 32% claim other Hispanic origin. Among all Hispanic eligible voters nationwide, 59% are Mexican, 14% are Puerto Rican, 5% are of Cuban origin and 22% are of some other Hispanic origin."
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988 62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004 62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Additionally the hispanic demographic is unsurprisingly proving difficult for Trump. Romney secured 27% of their vote in 12, presently the best estimate is that Trump is managing only 15% of this increasingly important bloc that is vital in a number of swing states.
Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
Yes. Hovever the GOP need to to heed their own advice after the 2012 defeat when they realised that alienating vast swathes of the electorate wasn't the route to the White House given the demographic changes and the need to appeal to swing voters.
The question is how many times they will lose before the dime finally drops?
Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
Incorrect.
Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.
Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.
The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".
Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
Incorrect.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31%
Pew Research :
"Hispanic Origin. Hispanic eligible voters in Florida have a different Hispanic origin profile to Hispanic eligible voters nationwide. Only 9% of Hispanic eligible voters in Florida are of Mexican origin, 27% are of Puerto Rican origin, 31% are of Cuban origin and 32% claim other Hispanic origin. Among all Hispanic eligible voters nationwide, 59% are Mexican, 14% are Puerto Rican, 5% are of Cuban origin and 22% are of some other Hispanic origin."
Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.
Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
Lots of rich Republicans will cross over to Hillary compared to when Romney/McCain were in the field Not many poor Democrats will cross over to Trump compared to when Obama was running Thus I see Hillary upside and am reluctant to bet on Trump beyond the convention
Quite a lot of poor Democrats won't vote for Hillary either. The key question may not be swing voters so much as GOTV.
Agreed, the traditional concept of swing voter is not relevant here, the only difference in my guess being that I doubt Hillary will lose many voters relative to Obama
I also think this Klan business will be helpful in mobilising black voters, and Sanders's weaknesses are good for Hillary here And of course she will win more Latinos than Obama '12. As the Americans say, Duh
Indeed, Trump could win Ohio, helped by gains with the white working class and Florida and Colorado and Iowa and still lose to Hillary 270 to 268 if she wins Virginia, helped by mobilising the black vote and Nevada, helped by mobilising the Hispanic vote and holds all the other states Obama won http://www.270towin.com/
YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning
YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning
Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988 62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004 62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
Yes. Hovever the GOP
Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
Incorrect.
Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.
Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.
The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".
Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
Incorrect.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.
Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
I'm normally very wary about talking about voting blocs but in US politics there is little getting away from the fact that Dems take around 9/10 AA voters and the trend with hispanics is hugely favouring the Dems too regardless of origin and social class.
Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.
Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
Mr. Eagles, were YouGov accurate last time? This sounds like it'll just saturate the media and create rather than reflect the narrative.
They got the general election wrong, but they've got other things virtually spot on.
I mean you wouldn't call Hannibal a loser just because he had his bottom spanked at Zama
Indeed and referendums should be easier to predict as there are no smaller parties to complicate matters (and if the status quo leads they will almost certainly win as Don't Knows tend to favour no change in the end)
Dilbert cartoonist and "master persuader" Scott Adams thinks Trump is heading for one of the biggest landslide victories in American history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kydKTVLmP58
I see Telegraph today has gone big on Cameron trying to bury the accurate immigration statistics. Its a full front page story. This is going to become too big for him to sustain if he doesn't release them.
YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning
Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
My recent model here showed the likely strong REMAIN vote in Scotland, Wales & N.I. had the effect of moving the overall UK vote by around 3.25%. Therefore, if the overall result were to be 52% vs 48% in favour of REMAIN, this would suggest that England, including London, had voted LEAVE. Very tricky for Dave & Co. were this to be the case.
I see Telegraph today has gone big on Cameron trying to bury the accurate immigration statistics. Its a full front page story. This is going to become too big for him to sustain if he doesn't release them.
The big question is whether he will be able to sit on them until after 23 June (my birthday btw!).
My stepdad who is a long term Conservative voter and has supported Remain for last few years says he will now vote Leave. He's your Volvo-driving, rotary club, house-owning type that I imagine is the backbone of the Tory vote in Middle England. Interestingly he said it took him a long time to switch but now he's changed he feels ever more certain in his view.
My Mum is less political but Tory leaning and still on the fence. She wants more information and in a simple to understand format.
My stepdad who is a long term Conservative voter and has supported Remain for last few years says he will now vote Leave. He's your Volvo-driving, rotary club, house-owning type that I imagine is the backbone of the Tory vote in Middle England. Interestingly he said it took him a long time to switch but now he's changed he feels ever more certain in his view.
My Mum is less political but Tory leaning and still on the fence. She wants more information and in a simple to understand format.
If Remain gets half of those who voted Tory in 2015 to back it it will be doing well, the larger the number of Tories backing Leave the closer it will be
I see Telegraph today has gone big on Cameron trying to bury the accurate immigration statistics. Its a full front page story. This is going to become too big for him to sustain if he doesn't release them.
The big question is whether he will be able to sit on them until after 23 June (my birthday btw!).
If it is regular headlines between then and now I think it will come up as a 'what are you hiding' meme in the campaign and debates. That would be more toxic than releasing the damn numbers with two months to go.
Dilbert cartoonist and "master persuader" Scott Adams thinks Trump is heading for one of the biggest landslide victories in American history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kydKTVLmP58
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988 62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004 62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
Yes. Hovever the GOP
Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
Incorrect.
Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.
Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.
The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".
Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
Incorrect.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.
Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.
Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
By the time Texas becomes a swing state the Democrats would have won the presidency a dozen times by always winning Florida. A realignment will happen long before then.
YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning
Remain lead 40% to 37%, I am sticking to my prediction of Remain 52% to 48% with England outside London voting Leave
My recent model here showed the likely strong REMAIN vote in Scotland, Wales & N.I. had the effect of moving the overall UK vote by around 3.25%. Therefore, if the overall result were to be 52% vs 48% in favour of REMAIN, this would suggest that England, including London, had voted LEAVE. Very tricky for Dave & Co. were this to be the case.
Could well be, though personally I think England will be 50 50 if Remain leads 52 48 with London just pushing Remain over the line by a fraction. Either way it would be a gift to UKIP and Tory backbenchers
Wales I think will be closer to England, Scotland strong Remain, NI in between
She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.
This and the German threat only fired me up to start local organisation talks.
"He says there will be consequences. Imagine a French man telling Thatcher there would be consequences. He'd be walking like John Wayne for a week. Consequences, you little man? Consequences? You've never stuck around long enough to see the consequences of your repeated capitulation in the face of attack. Your countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day." Katie Hopkins
Donald Trump 'From Our Own Correspondent' from the always interesting Jon Sopel. He describes his speech as delivered like an anagram with sentences used as word associations....
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988 62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004 62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
Yes. Hovever the GOP
Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
Incorrect.
Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.
Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.
The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".
Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
Incorrect.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.
Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.
Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
By the time Texas becomes a swing state the Democrats would have won the presidency a dozen times by always winning Florida. A realignment will happen long before then.
Nothing is forever in politics.
However the GOP is in terrible trouble in POTUS terms and presently they have no answer to the conundrum.
C'mon Plato, you're a communications guru aren't you? (I think). That column is borderline incoherent. Actually it's reminsicent of a Trump speech. Ah. Oh dear
63% of white men voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 63% of white men voted for George Bush snr. in 1988 62% of white men voted for George W. Bush in 2004 62% of white men voted for Mitt Romney in 2012
Jack, do you think it will ever be possible again for a white male to win the White House as the Republican candidate?
Yes. Hovever the GOP
Seems it has with those rallying round Trump..
Incorrect.
Hispanics will make up 12% of the eligible vote this year only 0.5% below the AA vote.
Their vote in swing states will be 18% in Florida, 17% in Nevada, 15% in Colorado. They will also make up crucial blocs in Virginia and the rust belt states.
The latest Florida poll has Trump +2. Hardly "in the bag".
Hispanics in Florida are usually Cuban-Americans, lections.
Incorrect.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31
Though Puerto Ricans are different to Mexicans too.
Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
By the time Texas becomes a swing state the Democrats would have won the presidency a dozen times by always winning Florida. A realignment will happen long before then.
Nothing is forever in politics.
However the GOP is in terrible trouble in POTUS terms and presently they have no answer to the conundrum.
Much like Labour the GOP need to get the fanaticism of the base out of the system, that will only come by nominating losing ideologues ie Trump in 2016 and Cruz in 2020. The answer will then be the half-Hispanic, JFK lookalike likely next governor of Texas and son of the former governor of Florida George P Bush, however it will take 16 years out of the White House to get there https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlwGlvs0SDg
She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.
This and the German threat only fired me up to start local organisation talks.
"He says there will be consequences. Imagine a French man telling Thatcher there would be consequences. He'd be walking like John Wayne for a week. Consequences, you little man? Consequences? You've never stuck around long enough to see the consequences of your repeated capitulation in the face of attack. Your countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day." Katie Hopkins
Could you argue that the Paris commune successfully defended Paris? (only going by Wiki. my GCSE/O-level pilot history missed out this period)
Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
C'mon Plato, you're a communications guru aren't you? (I think). That column is borderline incoherent. Actually it's reminsicent of a Trump speech. Ah. Oh dear
I’m REALLY looking forward to the Wail’s front page the day after REMAIN wins! Especially if it’s narrow and Scotland makes the difference!
Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
Dear Roger, have you considered that Katie's article probably resonates with more voters views than your own? You are being given the opportunity to learn something.
Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
Can't people who want to read such puerile crap from the Daily Mail read it in the privacy of their own bathroom and spare the rest of us this pollution?
Your inner Mary Whitehouse is showing, luv.
It's moronic I can only imagine you haven't read it....
(OT. Have you seen 'Hail Caesar' yet? I really enjoyed it and who taught Channing Tatum to sing dance and act! Great cameo from your mate RF)
Always a game for cards anyway, but not been a NLD with so much on it for a long time. Took short odds for 40+ booking points, also got a small stakes spread buy at 61.
Much like Labour the GOP need to get the fanaticism of the base out of the system, that will only come by nominating losing ideologues ie Trump in 2016 and Cruz in 2020. The answer will then be the half-Hispanic, JFK lookalike likely next governor of Texas and son of the former governor of Florida George P Bush, however it will take 16 years out of the White House to get there
Are you seriously arguing that the answer to the Republicans' problems is the injection of the right demographic blood into the Bush dynasty?
Far from being an ideologue, Trump is the only candidate throwing out the ideological baggage that the party has accumulated since the Reagan era.
Comments
Turnout is certainly up in GOP primaries but before anyone gets too carried away Trump has only won 34% of that vote to date. One could equally well argue that large numbers are turning out in GOP primaries to stop Trump.
As I pointed out earlier the exit polls in the primaries so far have shown only 49% of GOP voters would be happy with a Trump candidacy compared to 79% of Dems happy with Clinton. In 2012 GOP voters were 63% happy with Romney and and 77% were happy with McCain in 2008 and both went on to lose.
Trump's voters are probably the most energised and vocal (except maybe for Sanders) but it doesn't follow that there are more of them!
sadly you need to transpose the teams this time,
the lowest turnout in the last 60 years was in 1996 when Bill Clinton comfortably beat Bob Dole by more than 8% and turnout fell to just 49%. The highest turnout was 62.8% in the very close 1960 election when JFK beat Nixon by less than 1%
(why's Wenger dropped Monreal too, looks a panicky team by him ... but then I'm looking for straws)
A draw would be best for Leicester - and the football gods continue to smile on us...
Is it 1-2 @ 1-3 or something else ?
I also think this Klan business will be helpful in mobilising black voters, and Sanders's weaknesses are good for Hillary here
And of course she will win more Latinos than Obama '12. As the Americans say, Duh
YUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE value there right now.
Florida's Cuban hispanics now make up a clear minority of the demographic - 31%
Pew Research :
"Hispanic Origin. Hispanic eligible voters in Florida have a different Hispanic origin profile to Hispanic eligible voters nationwide. Only 9% of Hispanic eligible voters in Florida are of Mexican origin, 27% are of Puerto Rican origin, 31% are of Cuban origin and 32% claim other Hispanic origin. Among all Hispanic eligible voters nationwide, 59% are Mexican, 14% are Puerto Rican, 5% are of Cuban origin and 22% are of some other Hispanic origin."
Do you think my point has any validity that SW Hispanics are quite different to East Coast ones, both in terms of origins, but also social class? Similar perhaps to the differences between British Muslims and British Sikhs in voting behaviour.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/politics/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-florida/index.html
http://www.270towin.com/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/
Clearly in Florida the GOP has historically been stronger in the Cuban community but even this demographic is trending away from the GOP. Outside of Florida the hispanic voting patterns are at the margin very similar whether it be Nevada, Virginia or the rust belt states.
Just as New Mexico has trended away from GOP (Bush Jnr won there) so has Nevada. Colorado has followed suit and it time so will Arizona and Texas will become a swing state eventually.
Mr. Eagles, were YouGov accurate last time? This sounds like it'll just saturate the media and create rather than reflect the narrative.
I'm certainly not cheered by this at all.
Confession time, a few weeks ago, I did suggest to a few people at YouGov that they should do a daily EURef poll
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/18/scotland-no-enters-polling-day-4-ahead/
The yougov exit poll was almost spot on at No 54% Yes 46%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/18/yougov-referendum-prediction/
Stephan Shakespeare, YouGov CEO, says "The remain side has won the first two weeks of this campaign.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/
I mean you wouldn't call Hannibal a loser just because he had his bottom spanked at Zama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kydKTVLmP58
He has an interesting and amusing blog.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/140333940251/super-tuesday-master-persuader-series
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/706087298203586560
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html
My stepdad who is a long term Conservative voter and has supported Remain for last few years says he will now vote Leave. He's your Volvo-driving, rotary club, house-owning type that I imagine is the backbone of the Tory vote in Middle England. Interestingly he said it took him a long time to switch but now he's changed he feels ever more certain in his view.
My Mum is less political but Tory leaning and still on the fence. She wants more information and in a simple to understand format.
From the 1975 pamphlet on staying in the Common Market. Ever feel like you've been had? #Brexit https://t.co/jSyagR0oMv
Wales I think will be closer to England, Scotland strong Remain, NI in between
"He says there will be consequences. Imagine a French man telling Thatcher there would be consequences. He'd be walking like John Wayne for a week. Consequences, you little man? Consequences? You've never stuck around long enough to see the consequences of your repeated capitulation in the face of attack. Your countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day." Katie Hopkins
(From about 2.30 mins in)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b071ld6v
Always admired Cameron but detest him now.
However the GOP is in terrible trouble in POTUS terms and presently they have no answer to the conundrum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12184099/Eurosceptics-should-visit-war-graves-says-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html
I delivered a load of leaflets for Vote Leave, just before it started snowing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlwGlvs0SDg
My 125/1 tip is on!
My card bet has won already.
(OT. Have you seen 'Hail Caesar' yet? I really enjoyed it and who taught Channing Tatum to sing dance and act! Great cameo from your mate RF)
Fingers crossed for your 5-1 bet!
Far from being an ideologue, Trump is the only candidate throwing out the ideological baggage that the party has accumulated since the Reagan era.