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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    I reckon Cameron has to achieve a deal today. He can then come back and say ... "This is a magnificent fig leaf, a game changer. It was hard and brutal, and won on the playing fields of Eton."

    Otherwise, he goes down as all mouth and trousers, no matter what the promises for a renewed battle.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is this the same watch you had that finally went flat, or a newer one? Batteries often only last a year or two. If the second hand is double second moving, that's usually a low battery warning

    Good morning, everyone.

    One is not filled with confidence in Cameron's negotiation.

    Also, my watch is on go-slow. Contemplating whether to purchase a replacement or send it under warranty for repair [battery issues aren't covered, though, and I don't want to send it off just to wait for nothing].

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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    This has become fascinating, Cameron has stated unequivocally that he wants to stay in a reformed EU, that's fair enough, perfectly reasonable. Now it's become clear that is impossible I wonder what he does next. Most of us have seen a colleague bang on the boss's desk saying he's leaving if he doesn't get a pay rise. When the boss shrugs his shoulders the outcome is inevitable and humiliating.

    I did that once. Didn't get my own way so left when they were severely short staffed. My replacement's visa application was denied due to being filled in incorrectly so they had to hire a contractor on £500 a day. All annual leave was severely restricted for several months. Was incredibly satisfying.
    You had a row with your boss and you felt satisfied when the boss took your anger out on your colleagues? Do you have any idea of what a selfish little shit that makes you sound?

    On reflection, I suspect you do and you don't care.
    I couldn't care less. It is poor management to allow a team to become under resourced and my colleagues were bullies.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    As I see it around 40 to 45% of the country will vote Leave regardless and about 45 to 50% will vote Remain regardless. These negotiations will sway nobody apart from 5 to 10% of undecideds who will decide the referendum and even then probably not decisively. Negotiations may continue and a referendum not be held until September or later, which would be better than a rushed job
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    edited February 2016
    Miss Plato, really? My old one (Accurist) had a battery that lasted 10 years. I only didn't get it replaced last time because it was most of the way into battery life, and the cost of that was about half the cost of a new watch so I thought it made sense to get a new one.

    The seconds hand just stops. And then restarts.

    Edited extra bit: [on the old watch], now I come to think of it, I believe there was something more substantial wrong with the old watch as it stopped suddenly rather than slowing. But I did get 16 years or so out of it.
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    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    "Brexit fundamentalists"? Nice measured language there, OGH.

    Cameron doesn't need to worry about the 15% of "fundamentalist" Leavers, he needs to worry about the 85% of those inclined towards Leave, who are mighty unimpressed with what he has achieved in these "negotiations" to date.

    There are two sensible options.

    1. No renegotiation. Just say to the voters, "Here's your Referendum. Take it or leave it."

    2. Proper renegotiation. That will take a couple of years, before there's a referendum.

    What we're getting is a Whitehall farce.
    Please

    lets hope we don;t have another 3 year referendum campaign.
    The BBC vox popped 60 people yesterday about the talks - 48 had no idea and cared even less what they were about. There is exceptional apathy about the EU which is not really reflected on the political blogs and forums.
    yup

    which in your terms means it will be a nutjob turnout contest

    Leave nutjobs versus Remain nutjobs.
    Talking of nutjobs: the Grauniad delivers, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/18/british-writers-actors-david-cameron-rescue-refugee-children. :)
    What is it about being in the arts that turns you into such a luvvie?

    Or is it just that all those who are natural luvvies (with seemingly very few exceptions) enter the arts?

    I mentioned Margaret Thatcher to an actress (now doing business presentation and public speaking training) once as one of my inspirational figures.

    She almost went purple.
    I think that only a small number of people have the ability to combine posturing anger with lip-quivering emoting, and they gravitate towards the arts.
    Or PB.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Think that's low battery warning, mine does that.

    Miss Plato, really? My old one (Accurist) had a battery that lasted 10 years. I only didn't get it replaced last time because it was most of the way into battery life, and the cost of that was about half the cost of a new watch so I thought it made sense to get a new one.

    The seconds hand just stops. And then restarts.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed.

    No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us. We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    Too bad for you a majority of the country voted for them.

    If you don't like the UK, and prefer working and living Europe, why do you care?
    Majority of the country did not vote for them. Most stayed at home or voted against.
    Nonsense. The Tories and UKIP clocked over 50% of the vote GB-wide; if you want UK-wide that's also true with throwing in the right-wing DUP and Tory-allied UUP.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

    In England, it was over 55% of the vote going to the Tories and UKIP:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Sorry, I know that upsets you, but it's the truth.
    Polling suggests that it's now about 53% overall, and 58% in England.
    Of the 60 odd percent that show up to vote . This difference really matters for a referendum where we are looking for popular engagement and consent.

    At the moment you're leaving two thirds out of the conversation.
    OGH did a lot of threads before the General Election telling us that Ukip's support was unreliable and wouldn't turnout to vote. If we assume that he was right then I think it is fair to assume that had they bothered/been forced to vote then a good chunk would have voted Ukip (or Tory).

    I think it is laughable when people on the Left resort to arguing that those that didn't vote support their party. The problem with people who don't vote is that they don't vote. As such we don't know what they think and there is no evidence to suggest that had they voted their split in terms of party shares of the vote would have been any different to those that actually did bother to vote.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016
    HYUFD said:

    The Times reports Wiltshire police are spending millions hiring investigators to trawl through the Heath archive at the Bodleian looking to corroborate his movement's as part of their sex abuse inquiry

    Wiltshire Police are desperately trying to dig themselves out of an embarrassing hole. They're too stupid to realise that by hosing millions of pounds of taxpayers cash in their wild goose chase, they're only making things worse for themselves.

    On topic, Cameron's night of failed 'negotiations' is a foretaste of every future EU meeting with the other members ganging up to stall, or disagree with every British proposal. "You don't want changes to banking regulation that will affect The City? Tough, you're outnumbered. Suck it up"

    There's really no point in bothering now.

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    Miss Plato, not bought many watches (two, to be precise) but that seems like a crock to me [that the battery lasts so little time, not your post :p ].

    Well, fine. I'll buy a sundial. Hmph.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    edited February 2016
    None of this is in the least unexpected - it is absolutely how the EU deals with difficult negotiations. All-night haggling, delayed outcomes and a final triumph is the SOP. And to be fair, getting 28 people to agree on anything is a challenge, and getting 28 representatives to agree means that they have to be able to say back home that they fought to the last ditch. We struggle to get a deal between the management and a handful of union leaders on overtime pay for running the Tube overnight - imagine what it'd be like if there were 28 different managements and unions to satisfy?

    It does reflect the continuing strength of the nation-states in the EU. They ALL need to be persuaded - none of the majority voting stuff that you get on minor matters.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Cameron will return with concessions on standardised paperclip sizing, and fanatical Tory Richard Nabavi will sell it as a fantastic deal for the UK.
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    Mr. Palmer, except when they don't. Such as QMV to resettle migrants (which is working very well).
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I guess it must be the weight of the movement related. Mine's an Omega and I rarely wear it nowadays. Just use phone or laptop clock.

    Miss Plato, not bought many watches (two, to be precise) but that seems like a crock to me [that the battery lasts so little time, not your post :p ].

    Well, fine. I'll buy a sundial. Hmph.

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    Miss Plato, not bought many watches (two, to be precise) but that seems like a crock to me [that the battery lasts so little time, not your post :p ].

    Well, fine. I'll buy a sundial. Hmph.

    http://www.thinkgeek.com/product/eddd/
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed.

    No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us. We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    Most British voters now support either the Tories or UKIP.
    Most voters are neither. The Tories and UKIP have maybe 200,000 members between them. The voters are nothing to do with these fetishistic cliques
    That's not what Sean Fear said. He said most voters support the Tories or UKIP, not that they were active members of either party.

    This must be really hard for you to accept.
    The UKIP/Tory manifestos contained dozens of crackpot proposals. These 'special interest projects' are tacked on to appeal to special interests in order to grub out a few extra votes from a few otherwise unrepresented obsessives.

    It's just a terrible shame that the rest of us have to be uses as cannon fodder for these fettishists.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed. No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us.

    We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    I don't know who you talk to, but my French contacts are syaing "good on the Brits". Many of them are even (privately) confiding that "if they were British they'd vote Leave". Our reputation has in no way been "trashed" except, possibly, among the bien pissant ex pats in the Riviera
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    Mr. Divvie, that's the kind of chronometer a speculative fiction writer could get away with ;)

    That said, it's in dollars and I don't live in America... although I'd guess it could be acquired on this side of the Atlantic.

    Miss Plato, to be honest, I was surprised how little I missed (aside from liking the appearance) my old watch when it broke. I use the PC clock, and if I'm on the PS4/watching TV it's one button to bring up the time.

    The issue is when I'm out (admittedly, a rare thing for me to leave behind the comforting shadows of the cave I occupy on a small, isolated island in the North Sea). Probably have to borrow a watch for Monday, as I'm off to the dentist.
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    And the BBC wonder why the Indy has gone tits up, they even stomping all over the kind of eco bollocks stories the Indy were known for....

    Is there a serious problem with coffee capsules?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35605927
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited February 2016
    View from one of Casino's pro Cameron centrist Tory swing voters (boy, I'm going to milk this one for all it's worth!).

    If the 'deal' is the same as the one unveiled a fortnight ago....then on the fence I remain but more sulkily.

    If it has been watered down still further then 55-45 I move to out.

    However, if he secures further concessions (yeah, depends on what), then I'm edging back to Remain (which is where I would like to have been from the start).
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    DavidL said:

    On topic, the hinge to the debate lies in the sentence of Mike's:

    "[No agreement today] might suit Cameron. He has to be seen to have pushed hard and to claim some sort of victory in order that the narrative of the campaign is positive for him"

    Only if three conditions are met:

    1. He can get a worthwhile deal later.
    2. He can manage the Leave-lean faction within the Conservatives, preventing them from breaking out into open hostility.
    3. He can prevent Leave from riding the non-agreement as evidence of failure.

    Pushing hard is not of itself enough; he has to come back with something meaningful. Pushing hard and not getting much would actually play into Leave's hands.

    This was my number 1 scenario yesterday and I still think it is pretty nailed on. It is not without risks however. The things they are arguing about are so numbingly trivial in the overall scheme of things that many might conclude that if our PM has to go to the wire for this dross serious reform of the EU is simply a non starter.

    That is pretty much where I am at the moment. This stupid little story about the rate of CB to be paid to children who are not British, don't live here and have no intention of doing so by British taxpayers is annoying but is as far away from the strategic problems the UK faces in the EU as the EZ federalises as to be out of sight.
    Indeed. Its the trick of the conjurer to move his right hand a lot to distract from his left.
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    No wonder the unknown new Top Gear presenter got the job...

    What’s your current daily car?

    A Ford Focus Eco Boost. Don’t diss the 1.0-litre turbo. It’s all about downsizing these days.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/02/18/i-drive-a-ford-focus-eco-boost-the-first-interview-with-the-new/

    It was a good job he didn't say "favourite coffee"....The one out of my Nespresso machine
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    Miss Plato, not bought many watches (two, to be precise) but that seems like a crock to me [that the battery lasts so little time, not your post :p ].

    Well, fine. I'll buy a sundial. Hmph.

    http://www.thinkgeek.com/product/eddd/
    Love it.
    Especially the bit at the bottom of the page
    "Please Note: The Navitron (like most sundials) doesn't work in the Southern Hemisphere. Well, it does work, but you have to reverse all the numbers (i.e. whatever number the gnomon points to is actually the corresponding number on the opposite side)."
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    watford30 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Times reports Wiltshire police are spending millions hiring investigators to trawl through the Heath archive at the Bodleian looking to corroborate his movement's as part of their sex abuse inquiry

    Wiltshire Police are desperately trying to dig themselves out of an embarrassing hole. They're too stupid to realise that by hosing millions of pounds of taxpayers cash in their wild goose chase, they're only making things worse for themselves.

    On topic, Cameron's night of failed 'negotiations' is a foretaste of every future EU meeting with the other members ganging up to stall, or disagree with every British proposal. "You don't want changes to banking regulation that will affect The City? Tough, you're outnumbered. Suck it up"

    There's really no point in bothering now.

    Yes agree on Wiltshire. On the EU some EU leaders e.g. Rutte, Merkel, Orbanl, Kenny agree with many of Cameron's requests
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    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed. No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us.

    We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    I don't know who you talk to, but my French contacts are syaing "good on the Brits". Many of them are even (privately) confiding that "if they were British they'd vote Leave". Our reputation has in no way been "trashed" except, possibly, among the bien pissant ex pats in the Riviera
    Similarly when 'Tatcher' was in power the French sneakily admired her for standing up for Britain - they may not have liked her, but at least you knew where you stood.....love the bien-typo (or not...)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    edited February 2016
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed. No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us.

    We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    I don't know who you talk to, but my French contacts are syaing "good on the Brits". Many of them are even (privately) confiding that "if they were British they'd vote Leave". Our reputation has in no way been "trashed" except, possibly, among the bien pissant ex pats in the Riviera
    Although it was the French and De Gaulle who vetoed the UK's EEC membership in the first place
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    Have to say managing to pick a fight with the Pope is just too entertaining for words. And Trump seems to be winning.

    My timeline has been flooded with pix of the Vatican walls and another papal fort in France.

    The tone has been Bloody Hypocrite.

    Trump has worked out that 22% of Americans are Catholics.
    "Donald Trump praises Pope Francis after US-Mexico wall row"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35610126
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed. No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us.

    We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    I don't know who you talk to, but my French contacts are syaing "good on the Brits". Many of them are even (privately) confiding that "if they were British they'd vote Leave". Our reputation has in no way been "trashed" except, possibly, among the bien pissant ex pats in the Riviera
    At the last French EU referendum, the No side received 55% of the vote, and with Front National on about 30% in the opinion polls, its hard to see how the French are much different than the UK.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2016
    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions
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    BBC has lousy reporting of American politics. They say Pope's criticism will damage Trump in 'God fearing South Carolina. Of course state is evangelical of the Rev Paisley vibe...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed. No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us.

    We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    I don't know who you talk to, but my French contacts are syaing "good on the Brits". Many of them are even (privately) confiding that "if they were British they'd vote Leave". Our reputation has in no way been "trashed" except, possibly, among the bien pissant ex pats in the Riviera
    Similarly when 'Tatcher' was in power the French sneakily admired her for standing up for Britain - they may not have liked her, but at least you knew where you stood.....love the bien-typo (or not...)

    A pun, not a typo...

    :tongue:
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    Mr. Pubgoer, but I bet it has better range than an astrolabe.

    What if you're on the equator?

    Mr. Urquhart, James May does have a Fiat Panda, though.

    Then again, he also has a Ferrari.
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    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.
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    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    I think the tone is supposed to be heavily ironic (satirising said internet liberals) but perhaps not her best ever
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed.

    No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us. We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    Most British voters now support either the Tories or UKIP.
    Most voters are neither. The Tories and UKIP have maybe 200,000 members between them. The voters are nothing to do with these fetishistic cliques
    That's not what Sean Fear said. He said most voters support the Tories or UKIP, not that they were active members of either party.

    This must be really hard for you to accept.
    The UKIP/Tory manifestos contained dozens of crackpot proposals. These 'special interest projects' are tacked on to appeal to special interests in order to grub out a few extra votes from a few otherwise unrepresented obsessives.

    It's just a terrible shame that the rest of us have to be uses as cannon fodder for these fettishists.
    If you read the comments section of the German press you will find a surprisingly (well maybe not that surprising actually) balanced view. It's far from all "chuck the ungrateful Brits out", there are plenty expressing the view that "at least Cameron's trying to do the right thing for his country", and "why don't we Germans ever get a vote".

    I am in daily contact with customers and suppliers from the Continent and the total number of times Brexit/referendum has been raised is a big fat zero.

    My issue is that the whole thing needs root and branch reform for the benefit of all European countries otherwise the whole thing is heading for the rocks. The cosy world of 1957 doesn't exist any more, and an inward looking, dirigiste, ageing Europe is just not going to cut the mustard in a multi polar world of USA/China/India/Brazil that we will be facing in 50 years time.

    I simply am aghast that we are fiddling around talking about the indexing of Balkan child benefit, or imaginary emergency brakes in these circumstances. The worst of it is that our politicians are acting out a panto (ooh is it going to be English breakfast, or English lunch where we wave a piece of paper and say "deal;"?) that what they are doing over there in Brussels is going to solve matters "for a generation".

    They are fiddling while the (Treaty of) Rome burns.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Zinger
    All in all, it seems the Fates have made a terrible mistake, and selected completely the wrong guy to have borne witness to mass murder. What next? Rich theft victims? Casualties of police brutality with criminal records?

    Whatever form the next poorly plotted episode of real life takes, it’s clear that some need to prepare themselves for further disappointments in this vein. It shouldn’t be on them to have to adjust – of course it shouldn’t – but, given the ungrateful obduracy of people such as Hughes, perhaps it will fall to them to make the sacrifice.

    They’ll know best how to begin – knowing best is what they do – but on the off chance they are short of ideas, they may want to consider how many of them come across as being just a few keystrokes away from wondering how Hughes would have liked it if he had been shot himself.

    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2016

    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    I think the tone is supposed to be heavily ironic (satirising said internet liberals) but perhaps not her best ever
    Perhaps. But using this guy for your ironic "amusing" article like that is totally off limits. And the liberal press have already run a load of article banging on about his NRA / Republican support. He didn't choose to be in the position he is now in.

    The reality is he has a really troubled past, had been "rescued" by his friend, lead singer of QOTSA, and found solace in music. And how witnessed the most awful event and it has totally f##ked him up.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Indigo said:

    chestnut said:

    Indigo said:

    In other news

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/19/jeremy-corbyn-momentum-sweeps-board-at-labour-party-youth-elections

    Supporters of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership take all 18 seats in youth elections ahead of Young Labour annual conference next week

    There was a poor turnout with only 3.5% of those eligible to vote taking part in the online ballot. A total of 50,926 party members under the age of 27 were eligible to take part in the election.
    I wonder if they will try and "no platform" Jezza because he is now too right-wing :smirk:

    3.5% turn out! Where were the rest? At a sit-in ?
    Same demographic saying they will definitely be voting to Remain. :smile:

    3.5%
    yup, they'll all be twittering themselves up and not realise its voting that counts. Meanwhile the old crusties will descend in droves to the ballot box.
    That was an on-line ballot, they didn't even have to get their butts off the sofa, only 3.5% could be bother to click on a name!


    So where are the missing 96.5% of these supposedly riotously enthused Corbynista voters that could have voted?

    1. Hungover. Like they will be at the General Election.

    2. In despair of Corbyn already. Like they will be at the general Election in 2020.

    3. If you were idly wondering why Fifi Grabcock Stick-Wielder III didn't vote, then try asking the Kennel Club why this £3 member had a vote in the first place....
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    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.

    It is quite amazing how hung up on semantics people get. I got quite a bit of grief from Corbynites for referring to their leadership as "hard left" and their party opponents as "moderates". I have therefore dropped both terms.

    On the specifics on this occasion, when three pb regulars can debate last night whether Edward Heath was actually a traitor or only practically a traitor, the concept of hardliners in the Out camp seems eminently justifiable.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Cameron will get a deal, it will be a piss poor deal mind you.

    All of this charade about how difficult it ll is is pathetic. The establishment want to stay in, the EU cannot and will not change.

    We need to unshackle ourselves from an organisation that seems hell bent on committing economic and cultural suicide.

    BOO.

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    I agree (if I understand you correctly). It was an enormous mistake to set himself a deadline of 'the first half of the parliament'. A treaty change based on Bloomberg probably was achievable but in 3-4 years rather than the 9 months he's given it. There would need to be some acceptance of certain powers going *to* Brussels in order to improve efficiency, particularly - as you say - in the Eurozone and perhaps, given recent events, on border control. However, the whole point of negotiation is that everyone comes away with something better than they started with. I'm sure that a deal of that nature, written directly into an amended Treaty of Rome, was doable.

    Other than preventing the issue dominating his second term, I don't know why he didn't go for that option. While the PR of the Tories infighting over Europe again would be bad, there's any number of other reforms you can get through while people are distracted.

    A possible explanation for the "first half" condition is that Cammo wanted to use the second half of this Parliament for campaigning for Lords reform - replacing an obese appointed Lords with a small (say 200) Upper House elected on a property qualification. Such an Upper House could have real powers and could lock out the Labour and LibDem parties indefinitely. That would be a real legacy for a Tory PM.

    You're being silly again and predicting - with no evidence whatsoever - the Tories to restrict the vote.

    Far more logical, and already touched on in the thread, would be to reform the Lords by electing it by PR, taking advantage of the inherent right-of-centre majority in the country.
    I fail to see how replacing an appointed Upper House by an elected one is a "restriction" of the vote.

    Because it would be reintroducing a qualified franchise, something which had been previously been regarded as outdated. The last vestiges of the property franchise was ended way back in 1928 for parliament. It's one thing to preserve a process which might be anachronistic, on the basis of utility; it's a quite different one to introduce or reintroduce it.

    In any case, as I say, there's no need to fiddle the system. Britain splits about 50-50 over time between right and left. At the moment, and probably for the next ten years or so, the right is in the ascendancy. That will change with the swing of the pendulum as it always has.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Interesting, I took the opposite view. Read like a rather cutting commentary on the Guardianista crowd.

    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    I think the tone is supposed to be heavily ironic (satirising said internet liberals) but perhaps not her best ever
    Perhaps. But using this guy for your ironic "amusing" article like that is totally off limits. And the liberal press have already run a load of article banging on about his NRA / Republican support. He didn't choose to be in the position he is now in.

    The reality is he has a really troubled past, had been "rescued" by his friend, lead singer of QOTSA, and found solace in music. And how witnessed the most awful event and it has totally f##ked him up.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    chestnut said:



    What is that based on? Wishful thinking?
    Could they not be way to the left of Corbyn? No, I don't think so either, I expect that they're scattered all over the political spectrum.
    You really should be prepared to back up any assertions otherwise they're pretty pointless.

    It's based on the surge in nationalism that was evident in Scotland. If you take the ScotsNats and add them to the UKNats (Tory/UKIP) what do you get?

    What surge in Nationalism?

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/there-was-no-rise-in-scottish-nationalism-understanding-the-snp-victory/
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    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed.

    No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us. We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    Too bad for you a majority of the country voted for them.

    If you don't like the UK, and prefer working and living Europe, why do you care?
    Majority of the country did not vote for them. Most stayed at home or voted against.
    Nonsense. The Tories and UKIP clocked over 50% of the vote GB-wide; if you want UK-wide that's also true with throwing in the right-wing DUP and Tory-allied UUP.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

    In England, it was over 55% of the vote going to the Tories and UKIP:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Sorry, I know that upsets you, but it's the truth.
    Polling suggests that it's now about 53% overall, and 58% in England.
    Of the 60 odd percent that show up to vote . This difference really matters for a referendum where we are looking for popular engagement and consent.

    At the moment you're leaving two thirds out of the conversation.
    OGH did a lot of threads before the General Election telling us that Ukip's support was unreliable and wouldn't turnout to vote. If we assume that he was right then I think it is fair to assume that had they bothered/been forced to vote then a good chunk would have voted Ukip (or Tory).

    I think it is laughable when people on the Left resort to arguing that those that didn't vote support their party. The problem with people who don't vote is that they don't vote. As such we don't know what they think and there is no evidence to suggest that had they voted their split in terms of party shares of the vote would have been any different to those that actually did bother to vote.
    UKIP's vote did turn out. In the polling the week before the election, they registered between 11-17 in the polls but tended to crowd around 12-13 with only really Survation scoring them higher. They actually received 13%, so pretty much exactly in line with the bulk of polling.
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    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.

    It is quite amazing how hung up on semantics people get. I got quite a bit of grief from Corbynites for referring to their leadership as "hard left" and their party opponents as "moderates". I have therefore dropped both terms.

    On the specifics on this occasion, when three pb regulars can debate last night whether Edward Heath was actually a traitor or only practically a traitor, the concept of hardliners in the Out camp seems eminently justifiable.
    Sir Edward Heath was the greatest.

    Took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire and fired the vile racist, and ruiner of more lives of children than your average paedophile, Enoch Powell.
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    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.

    It is quite amazing how hung up on semantics people get. I got quite a bit of grief from Corbynites for referring to their leadership as "hard left" and their party opponents as "moderates". I have therefore dropped both terms.

    On the specifics on this occasion, when three pb regulars can debate last night whether Edward Heath was actually a traitor or only practically a traitor, the concept of hardliners in the Out camp seems eminently justifiable.
    I heard that Edward Heath even made no demands that English have the status of a Community language ... presumably, he was happy to further develop his wonderful French ... English was only insisted on by Eire.

    Have you been impressed by Cameron's renegotiation programme? Is it this which narrowly convinced you to back Remain?

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    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,542
    edited February 2016
    Ho Ho Ho

    @georgeeaton: Turnout in Young Labour elections was 3.5%.

    http://tinyurl.com/z2khd87
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    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.

    It is quite amazing how hung up on semantics people get. I got quite a bit of grief from Corbynites for referring to their leadership as "hard left" and their party opponents as "moderates". I have therefore dropped both terms.

    On the specifics on this occasion, when three pb regulars can debate last night whether Edward Heath was actually a traitor or only practically a traitor, the concept of hardliners in the Out camp seems eminently justifiable.
    I heard that Edward Heath even made no demands that English have the status of a Community language ... presumably, he was happy to further develop his wonderful French ... English was only insisted on by Eire.

    Have you been impressed by Cameron's renegotiation programme? Is it this which narrowly convinced you to back Remain?

    I believe the word I used was "pisspoor".

    I doubt anyone is all that interested in my views and I certainly don't intend boring everyone with them again, given that they were more than adequately aired and explored on yesterday morning's thread.

    It's fair to say I have yet to have been given grounds to review my thought processes since then.
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    Have to say managing to pick a fight with the Pope is just too entertaining for words. And Trump seems to be winning.

    My timeline has been flooded with pix of the Vatican walls and another papal fort in France.

    The tone has been Bloody Hypocrite.

    Trump has worked out that 22% of Americans are Catholics.
    "Donald Trump praises Pope Francis after US-Mexico wall row"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35610126
    I'll give him this, he has no compunction about U-turning when he realises that he's messed up.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.

    Meeks isn't a fence sitter, fence sitters won't voter... if you aren't bothered by the issue or only marginally so, why bother getting off the sofa... it's the main reason people don't vote in the GE ("My vote wont make any difference" or "They are all just the same"). If you detest the Kippers and all their works, you will vote against whatever they support, so you are not a fence sitter.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    You obviously aren't familiar with Marina Hyde. One of very few funny female journalists.

    (PS to all Guido and Telegraph readers. She's being ironic)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,962

    Interesting, I took the opposite view. Read like a rather cutting commentary on the Guardianista crowd.

    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    I think the tone is supposed to be heavily ironic (satirising said internet liberals) but perhaps not her best ever
    Perhaps. But using this guy for your ironic "amusing" article like that is totally off limits. And the liberal press have already run a load of article banging on about his NRA / Republican support. He didn't choose to be in the position he is now in.

    The reality is he has a really troubled past, had been "rescued" by his friend, lead singer of QOTSA, and found solace in music. And how witnessed the most awful event and it has totally f##ked him up.
    I knew about his views, it's one of the reasons I liked them!

    Have to agree that this guardian piece was a piss take of 'liberal luvvies' not an attack on Jesse Hughes
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    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    Yes indeed. I've brought what was going to be my mid-June visit to Spain forward on the assumption that the referendum will be on June 23rd. Could someone pass that onto the negotiation team.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    What time today would it be clear that a deal wasn't happening ? 6pm ?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    Yes indeed. I've brought what was going to be my mid-June visit to Spain forward on the assumption that the referendum will be on June 23rd. Could someone pass that onto the negotiation team.
    As soon as they chop down the beanstalk I'm sure the note will be passed on to them.
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    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    I *think* that her point is that the internet liberals are making themselves look extremely stupid and intolerant; something inevitably then proved below the line.

    But it can sometimes be hard to separate arch irony from patronising condescension.
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    TGOHF said:

    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    What time today would it be clear that a deal wasn't happening ? 6pm ?
    I'm fairly certain it now won't be June 23rd, as I've just written an epic thread assuming it would be June 23rd, which will now be redundant.
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    isam said:

    Interesting, I took the opposite view. Read like a rather cutting commentary on the Guardianista crowd.

    Just wow...wow...even by Guardian standards...

    Jesse Hughes, the band’s frontman, favours universal gun ownership. And to think the internet’s would-be liberals nearly felt sorry for him having to endure the Bataclan massacre...(it gets worse)

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2016/feb/19/eagles-death-metal-wrong-place-wrong-time-wrong-opinions

    I think the tone is supposed to be heavily ironic (satirising said internet liberals) but perhaps not her best ever
    Perhaps. But using this guy for your ironic "amusing" article like that is totally off limits. And the liberal press have already run a load of article banging on about his NRA / Republican support. He didn't choose to be in the position he is now in.

    The reality is he has a really troubled past, had been "rescued" by his friend, lead singer of QOTSA, and found solace in music. And how witnessed the most awful event and it has totally f##ked him up.
    I knew about his views, it's one of the reasons I liked them!

    Have to agree that this guardian piece was a piss take of 'liberal luvvies' not an attack on Jesse Hughes
    Just read it. Definitely a send-up of the woolly minded who still believe Narnia is a real place.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Congratulations to Nigel farage. He's managed to do what Ed Milliband failed to do for five years and force Cameron to expose himself as the preposterous empty vessel we've always known him to be.

    This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed.

    No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us. We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.

    Too bad for you a majority of the country voted for them.

    If you don't like the UK, and prefer working and living Europe, why do you care?
    Majority of the country did not vote for them. Most stayed at home or voted against.
    Nonsense. The Tories and UKIP clocked over 50% of the vote GB-wide; if you want UK-wide that's also true with throwing in the right-wing DUP and Tory-allied UUP.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

    In England, it was over 55% of the vote going to the Tories and UKIP:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Sorry, I know that upsets you, but it's the truth.
    Polling suggests that it's now about 53% overall, and 58% in England.
    Of the 60 odd percent that show up to vote . This difference really matters for a referendum where we are looking for popular engagement and consent.

    At the moment you're leaving two thirds out of the conversation.
    OGH did a lot of threads before the General Election telling us that Ukip's support was unreliable and wouldn't turnout to vote. If we assume that he was right then I think it is fair to assume that had they bothered/been forced to vote then a good chunk would have voted Ukip (or Tory).

    I think it is laughable when people on the Left resort to arguing that those that didn't vote support their party. The problem with people who don't vote is that they don't vote. As such we don't know what they think and there is no evidence to suggest that had they voted their split in terms of party shares of the vote would have been any different to those that actually did bother to vote.
    How long do you think it will be before the left start banging the compulsory vote drum? It would be interesting to see as all of the people they hate the most (WWC) are also the least likely to vote so forcing them to do so may end up with more people voting for UKIP.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    What time today would it be clear that a deal wasn't happening ? 6pm ?
    I'm fairly certain it now won't be June 23rd, as I've just written an epic thread assuming it would be June 23rd, which will now be redundant.
    The Pest is more optimistic..

    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 57m57 minutes ago
    Right now my modest bet is on historic cabinet to approve EU deal, & suspend collective cabinet responsibility, happening Saturday morning
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Pity those of us who...'

    Yes Roger, we do
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    Mr. Borough, technically, it is. Or was. Narnia was a region name during Roman times.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited February 2016
    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    edited February 2016

    Have to say managing to pick a fight with the Pope is just too entertaining for words. And Trump seems to be winning.

    My timeline has been flooded with pix of the Vatican walls and another papal fort in France.

    The tone has been Bloody Hypocrite.

    Trump has worked out that 22% of Americans are Catholics.
    "Donald Trump praises Pope Francis after US-Mexico wall row"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35610126
    I'll give him this, he has no compunction about U-turning when he realises that he's messed up.
    Trump displays the political attitude once expressed by a Danish PM caught doing a U-turn (Krag): "I have a position until I have a different one. What's strange about that?" It's part of a certain zany charm, in Britain best epitomised by Boris.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    Laura K put it well - he told us he was happy with the draft weeks ago and that he would join on that basis. But now he is having to give up his sausage, egg, chips and beans (and a slice) because that draft has evidently been watered down dramatically.

    How can that be portrayed as a victory?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Alistair said:


    What surge in Nationalism?

    How people self-define does not alter what they do.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Read header: LEAVE contains many "hardliners". My question: does REMAIN have any hardline supporters? Perhaps, they're mostly fence-sitters like A.Meeks, who - impressed by Cameron's renegotiation - have made a late decision to back REMAIN.

    It is quite amazing how hung up on semantics people get. I got quite a bit of grief from Corbynites for referring to their leadership as "hard left" and their party opponents as "moderates". I have therefore dropped both terms.

    On the specifics on this occasion, when three pb regulars can debate last night whether Edward Heath was actually a traitor or only practically a traitor, the concept of hardliners in the Out camp seems eminently justifiable.
    I heard that Edward Heath even made no demands that English have the status of a Community language ... presumably, he was happy to further develop his wonderful French ... English was only insisted on by Eire.

    Have you been impressed by Cameron's renegotiation programme? Is it this which narrowly convinced you to back Remain?

    I believe the word I used was "pisspoor".

    I doubt anyone is all that interested in my views and I certainly don't intend boring everyone with them again, given that they were more than adequately aired and explored on yesterday morning's thread.

    It's fair to say I have yet to have been given grounds to review my thought processes since then.
    I appreciate both your thread headers and posts.

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    TOPPING said:

    Laura K put it well - he told us he was happy with the draft weeks ago and that he would join on that basis. But now he is having to give up his sausage, egg, chips and beans (and a slice) because that draft has evidently been watered down dramatically.

    How can that be portrayed as a victory?

    We portrayed the evacuation at Dunkerque as a truly great victory.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited February 2016
    seems, pace retail sales at 2.3%, that we are still spending like sailors on shore leave...
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    Mr. Borough, technically, it is. Or was. Narnia was a region name during Roman times.

    I always learn something on this site every day. Much obliged.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    It does also look like 14/15 will be the peak debt year at 83%, this year we should end at marginally below that level and if growth holds out (which it should) then we should see that fall to around 81% for 16/17 and 78% in 17/18.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    TOPPING said:

    Laura K put it well - he told us he was happy with the draft weeks ago and that he would join on that basis. But now he is having to give up his sausage, egg, chips and beans (and a slice) because that draft has evidently been watered down dramatically.

    How can that be portrayed as a victory?

    We portrayed the evacuation at Dunkerque as a truly great victory.
    I nevertheless still think the media furore will drown out the paucity of what he has achieved.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    We portrayed the evacuation at Dunkerque as a truly great victory.

    Well the actual equivalent of that would be a great thing, but this looks more like Arnhem
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    OGH did a lot of threads before the General Election telling us that Ukip's support was unreliable and wouldn't turnout to vote. If we assume that he was right then I think it is fair to assume that had they bothered/been forced to vote then a good chunk would have voted Ukip (or Tory).

    I think it is laughable when people on the Left resort to arguing that those that didn't vote support their party. The problem with people who don't vote is that they don't vote. As such we don't know what they think and there is no evidence to suggest that had they voted their split in terms of party shares of the vote would have been any different to those that actually did bother to vote.

    How long do you think it will be before the left start banging the compulsory vote drum? It would be interesting to see as all of the people they hate the most (WWC) are also the least likely to vote so forcing them to do so may end up with more people voting for UKIP.
    If they're smart (don't laugh) they'll have worked that out. They'll probably continue to assume that they can get out the vote of the people who will vote the correct way (it won't work, of course).

    But I suspect they actually quite like being able to pretend that the current government is illegitimate so will be happy for things to carry on as they are.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352



    UKIP's vote did turn out. In the polling the week before the election, they registered between 11-17 in the polls but tended to crowd around 12-13 with only really Survation scoring them higher. They actually received 13%, so pretty much exactly in line with the bulk of polling.

    Yes, and some polls also cover the views of people who say they won't vote, by asking "If it were compulsory, who would you support?" Labour does slightly better as a rule, but it's not a game-changer. UKIP much the same IIRC.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks at the end of January 2016 was £1,581.6 billion, equivalent to 82.8% of Gross Domestic Product; an increase of £52.7 billion compared with January 2015.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961

    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    Yes indeed. I've brought what was going to be my mid-June visit to Spain forward on the assumption that the referendum will be on June 23rd. Could someone pass that onto the negotiation team.
    My betslip on July-September isn't going to win itself :)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
    Yes, we're not going to meet the forecast unless there is a massive upside in February self-assessment returns or there are downward revisions to borrowing of around £7bn for the YTD. With a £3bn upside and £4bn revisions the chancellor might make it, but it looks remote at the moment. Methinks he might be regretting spending the OBR's magic money right now.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    "Genius" Osborne's nose for a vote winner appears to be deserting him. After pissing off around half his parties supporters with this EURef fiasco, he now pulls the "upto 129 fold increase in death duties" rabbit out of his hat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/12164010/Grieving-families-could-be-forced-to-pay-a-new-death-tax.html
    Bereaved families could be forced to pay what amounts to a new death tax of up to £20,000, under Government plans.
    Ministers claimed the changes to the system of probate fees charged to activate a will would be fairer to poorer families by ensuring that many would no longer have to pay.
    But for some families it amounts to a potential 129-fold increase in costs as part of a scheme to intended to raise £250 million for the Exchequer.
    Dave and George seem to feel its time to ditch those nasty right of centre voters and appeal to the Wodger Tendency.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Doesn't he have 20bn to deploy?
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
    Yes, we're not going to meet the forecast unless there is a massive upside in February self-assessment returns or there are downward revisions to borrowing of around £7bn for the YTD. With a £3bn upside and £4bn revisions the chancellor might make it, but it looks remote at the moment. Methinks he might be regretting spending the OBR's magic money right now.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    What surge in Nationalism?

    What party did these people think they were joining?

    @AngusMacNeilSNP: SNP membership 25,000 on Referendum Day - but a 115,000 today!! #18months @LBC
    https://t.co/kNhaklkCmp
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
    Yes, we're not going to meet the forecast unless there is a massive upside in February self-assessment returns or there are downward revisions to borrowing of around £7bn for the YTD. With a £3bn upside and £4bn revisions the chancellor might make it, but it looks remote at the moment. Methinks he might be regretting spending the OBR's magic money right now.

    However,

    "At the end of January 2016, the provisional estimate of PSND ex as a percentage of GDP stood at 82.8%; a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with January 2015. This is the first time PSND ex as a percentage of GDP has experienced a year-on-year decrease since September 2002"

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_433733.pdf
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961
    Why is Rudd trending on Twitter - has she been wheeled out as the latest human shield for Dave ?
  • Options
    Mr. Indigo, headlines about raising revenue from grieving families are not necessarily to Osborne's advantage.

    Complacency borne of Corbyn seems to be affecting the Conservative leadership.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Doesn't he have 20bn to deploy?

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
    Yes, we're not going to meet the forecast unless there is a massive upside in February self-assessment returns or there are downward revisions to borrowing of around £7bn for the YTD. With a £3bn upside and £4bn revisions the chancellor might make it, but it looks remote at the moment. Methinks he might be regretting spending the OBR's magic money right now.
    Had £20bn, he's spent it all on reversing the tax credits changes and cuts to the police among other items.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
    Yes, we're not going to meet the forecast unless there is a massive upside in February self-assessment returns or there are downward revisions to borrowing of around £7bn for the YTD. With a £3bn upside and £4bn revisions the chancellor might make it, but it looks remote at the moment. Methinks he might be regretting spending the OBR's magic money right now.

    However,

    "At the end of January 2016, the provisional estimate of PSND ex as a percentage of GDP stood at 82.8%; a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with January 2015. This is the first time PSND ex as a percentage of GDP has experienced a year-on-year decrease since September 2002"

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_433733.pdf
    Yes I did say just a few minutes ago:

    It does also look like 14/15 will be the peak debt year at 83%, this year we should end at marginally below that level and if growth holds out (which it should) then we should see that fall to around 81% for 16/17 and 78% in 17/18.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Saw her earlier on Sky. I'm growing to really dislike her manner.
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Rudd trending on Twitter - has she been wheeled out as the latest human shield for Dave ?

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Indigo said:

    "Genius" Osborne's nose for a vote winner appears to be deserting him. After pissing off around half his parties supporters with this EURef fiasco, he now pulls the "upto 129 fold increase in death duties" rabbit out of his hat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/12164010/Grieving-families-could-be-forced-to-pay-a-new-death-tax.html

    Bereaved families could be forced to pay what amounts to a new death tax of up to £20,000, under Government plans.
    Ministers claimed the changes to the system of probate fees charged to activate a will would be fairer to poorer families by ensuring that many would no longer have to pay.
    But for some families it amounts to a potential 129-fold increase in costs as part of a scheme to intended to raise £250 million for the Exchequer.
    Dave and George seem to feel its time to ditch those nasty right of centre voters and appeal to the Wodger Tendency.



    "Those worth more than £500,000 – now just under the average London house price – would incur a charge of £4,000 rising to £8,000 for those worth over £1 million and £20,000 at the top end for estates amounting to over £2 million"


    Cry me a river...



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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Rudd trending on Twitter - has she been wheeled out as the latest human shield for Dave ?

    yes on R4. Keeping all cards close to her chest not committing either way.
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    TGOHF said:

    It has to be June the 23rd, Mike and I have already switched our holiday plans enough times assuming it was June the 23rd.

    What time today would it be clear that a deal wasn't happening ? 6pm ?
    There was talk of the summit potentially going to Sunday. 6pm would be early to call it off.

    A four-day Council summit would, however, be unprecedented though there was a four-day Eurozone summit in 2011. In its forty-plus year history, the Council has only had five summits run to a third day (most recently in 2000 when the Nice Treaty was agreed).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961
    edited February 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Doesn't he have 20bn to deploy?

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSF figures this morning. January surplus of £11.2bn well under expectations of ~£13bn given the massive rise in self-employment.

    Presently 10.6 Bn below this time last year - latest forecast is 73.5 Bn for year.

    A long way from surplus.
    Yes, we're not going to meet the forecast unless there is a massive upside in February self-assessment returns or there are downward revisions to borrowing of around £7bn for the YTD. With a £3bn upside and £4bn revisions the chancellor might make it, but it looks remote at the moment. Methinks he might be regretting spending the OBR's magic money right now.
    Had £20bn, he's spent it all on reversing the tax credits changes and cuts to the police among other items.
    Some of the police cuts probably needed to be undone - it's a service that's actually facing very severe cuts unlike the brou haha over the NHS which simply isnt'. The tax credits, purely political from Osborne - should have left them.
    What was the split of that 20 Bn between the police/tax cuts ?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    Saw her earlier on Sky. I'm growing to really dislike her manner.

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Rudd trending on Twitter - has she been wheeled out as the latest human shield for Dave ?

    she is trying to deposhify herself which I suppose is what all politicos, why even the Queen has done.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Rudd trending on Twitter - has she been wheeled out as the latest human shield for Dave ?

    Apparently poor performance on Radio 4 this morning.

    I think she was spinning Dave's performance as the greatest victory by an Old Etonian Tory PM since the Battle of Waterloo
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    JonathanD said:

    Indigo said:

    "Genius" Osborne's nose for a vote winner appears to be deserting him. After pissing off around half his parties supporters with this EURef fiasco, he now pulls the "upto 129 fold increase in death duties" rabbit out of his hat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/12164010/Grieving-families-could-be-forced-to-pay-a-new-death-tax.html

    Bereaved families could be forced to pay what amounts to a new death tax of up to £20,000, under Government plans.
    Ministers claimed the changes to the system of probate fees charged to activate a will would be fairer to poorer families by ensuring that many would no longer have to pay.
    But for some families it amounts to a potential 129-fold increase in costs as part of a scheme to intended to raise £250 million for the Exchequer.
    Dave and George seem to feel its time to ditch those nasty right of centre voters and appeal to the Wodger Tendency.

    "Those worth more than £500,000 – now just under the average London house price – would incur a charge of £4,000 rising to £8,000 for those worth over £1 million and £20,000 at the top end for estates amounting to over £2 million"


    Cry me a river...





    If the Tories are not going to stand up for the middle classes then who will? This is a bad road to go down, the government should be looking to eliminate inheritance tax entirely rather than ramp it up.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    The key issue in the EU talks is the City of London. Cameron is the spivs' man.

    The key issue isn't immigration, or child benefits for immigrants, or "emergency brakes", or Polish people. They are being given lots of column inches so that Britgov can retain some favour in its home market if the other powers decide to boot Britain out of the club.

    French President François Hollande says there must be one set of rules “to fight against speculation”. Can you get it much clearer? That means no special rules for that monstrous creation on a square mile of East-Central London. No British government, and no newspaper with a wide circulation in Britain, has ever fought against the monster.

    I told you that the members of the French political elite remember John Law. They remember the Stavisky affair too.

    "France is concerned that the UK is seeking to carve out special protections for the City of London".

    Vive la France!

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    Have to say managing to pick a fight with the Pope is just too entertaining for words. And Trump seems to be winning.

    My timeline has been flooded with pix of the Vatican walls and another papal fort in France.

    The tone has been Bloody Hypocrite.

    Trump has worked out that 22% of Americans are Catholics.
    "Donald Trump praises Pope Francis after US-Mexico wall row"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35610126
    I'll give him this, he has no compunction about U-turning when he realises that he's messed up.
    Trump displays the political attitude once expressed by a Danish PM caught doing a U-turn (Krag): "I have a position until I have a different one. What's strange about that?" It's part of a certain zany charm, in Britain best epitomised by Boris.
    I agree. I can see his opponents attacking him for a lack of consistency but I'm not sure whether such attacks will stick. They work when someone tries to pretend they've always had a view despite that obviously being contradicted by the facts. Trump is much more likely to say something along the lines of that Danish PM. To many voters, it will sound attractive.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    John_N said:

    The key issue in the EU talks is the City of London. Cameron is the spivs' man.

    The key issue isn't immigration, or child benefits for immigrants, or "emergency brakes", or Polish people. They are being given lots of column inches so that Britgov can retain some favour in its home market if the other powers decide to boot Britain out of the club.

    French President François Hollande says there must be one set of rules “to fight against speculation”. Can you get it much clearer? That means no special rules for that monstrous creation on a square mile of East-Central London. No British government, and no newspaper with a wide circulation in Britain, has ever fought against the monster.

    I told you that the members of the French political elite remember John Law. They remember the Stavisky affair too.

    "France is concerned that the UK is seeking to carve out special protections for the City of London".

    Vive la France!

    You do know that the City of London elders are tracking your every movement, your every keystroke, don't you?

    I would give Itsu a miss for a while if I were you.
This discussion has been closed.