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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : February 18th 2016

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    CON GAIN (from LD)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
    Amersham Town (Chiltern) result:
    CON: 50.2% (+11.6)
    LDEM: 36.3% (+3.3)
    UKIP: 6.9% (-7.4)
    LAB: 6.6% (-7.6)

    #LibDemFightBack #PeakUkip
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A lot of platitudes from the QT panel on education.
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    To be fair, the Tories did top the poll in the ward previously (see above), so it's a bit of a technical gain.
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    >

    English is the best language in the world!

    Very possibly but I am told that Persian is the most beautiful, and having listened to some Persian poetry on the wireless last week ("In our Time" on Radio 4, worth the licence fee on its own) I can see where such a view comes from.
    Wasn't it Harry Flashman who said that Persian was the most beautiful language ?

    Was this the episode you heard:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VBy07GaFMw

    For those who want to hear some Persian poetry:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WckiDUODGQ
    I think it might well have been Flashman, was it in "Flashman at the Charge"?

    As to the in Our Time episode it wasn't the one you mentioned but the one broadcast on 11/2/16 dealing with the poet Rumi.

    Thanks for the link to that poetry "broadcast", beautiful stuff.


    It was 'Flashman at the Charge', IMO perhaps the best of the series.

    And thanks for mentioning the 'In Our Time' series - I've never heard of it before but I see there's plenty on YouTube to listen to:

    ...
    Flashman at the Charge the best of the series? Not so sure about that; it is certainly very good and a lot better than some of the others. However, I reckon "Flashman in the Great Game" beat its by several lengths and "Flashman and the Dragon" noses it back into third place.

    As for the the "In Our Time" programme, it is superb. The Thursday morning 45 minute edition (not the cut down repeat on Saturday evening) is, as I say, worth the Licence Fee all on its own. Even when the topic is not something I would normally be interested in (e.g. an obscure 13th century Persian poet) The format of the programme manages to grab my attention and I cannot help but learn.
    I like the multiple settings of FatC - London, Crimea, Russia, Central Asia - and Ignatieff is a great villain. The interaction with Scud East is amusing as well.

    Of course many of these reoccur in FitGG but that makes it seem something of a copy.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apologies for the poor quality of that video. My VHS/DVD machine was getting a bit old at the time.
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Christ, Mandelson on Newsnight now encapsulating all of Remain's problems. Patronising, sneering towards anyone who takes a different view, saying Britain is "too poor and too wee" to survive on its own.

    Twas ever thus:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0Z6ODjfj2I
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    This SNP guy seems seriously impressive IMO.

    Yes, he was very good on This Week a while back too. One of the best of the new SNP intake. Law of averages, I suppose, they can't all be under investigation...
    John Nicolson? Yeah, I quite enjoyed his appearance a few weeks ago, and he's been on the Daily Politics a couple of times. I suspect he'll be back :D
    He should be good. He worked on Newsnight for several years and was an anchor for BBC news. He also had his own show on ITV.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Wanderer said:

    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    MP_SE said:

    "3 million jobs" has become a joke phrase judging by the Question Time audience reaction to June Sarpong.

    What happened?
    Jeering as soon as she started to say '3 mill...'. The audience seems strongly for Leave.
    Would be funny if 3 million jobs were lost
    Be careful what you wish for once the global sovereign debt crisis gets underway
    You were saying it was "utter cr*p" at 11.05 pm.
    That was the 3 million jobs lost if we leave the EU 'claim'. The global sovereign debt crisis began in the EU with Greece, and they have 60% youth unemployment, so if anyone is responsible for 3 million jobs lost its the EU and all its regulatory burden / high taxes etc
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    To be fair, the Tories did top the poll in the ward previously (see above), so it's a bit of a technical gain.

    Interesting bit of info . The winning Conservative candidate is the daughter of the deceased former Lib Dem councillor .
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    As someone who opposed Euro membership but am not leaning towards Leave am I the only one leaning towards Remain that cringes every time failed arguments by the likes of Mandelson that were said to be why we should use the Euro are recycled by the exact same people as reasons we should Remain?

    We need more Remain voices that were skeptics to the Euro.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited February 2016

    To be fair, the Tories did top the poll in the ward previously (see above), so it's a bit of a technical gain.

    A technical gain is the best kind of gain ;)
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    RobD said:

    I'd rather watch the last act of 2009 Star Trek on Film4 than QT...

    Serenity starts at 11.50, however

    Do we still have a This Week today? Parliament is in recess, so no Daily Politics this week.
    Ooops, Serenity starts at 11.30 tonight.
    Thanks -

    I nearly took your 11.50pm ;-)
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Flintshire New Brighton is a Lib Dem hold
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    To be fair, the Tories did top the poll in the ward previously (see above), so it's a bit of a technical gain.

    Interesting bit of info . The winning Conservative candidate is the daughter of the deceased former Lib Dem councillor .
    Unusual to say the least! Helps explain the result.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    To be fair, the Tories did top the poll in the ward previously (see above), so it's a bit of a technical gain.

    Au contraire Mr T_P;

    Corbynism sweeping the nation!
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    Cracking result for the LD's here (a hold, but they were in 2nd).

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
    Chadsmead (Lichfield) result:
    LDEM: 40.0% (+14.9)
    LAB: 26.0% (+1.6)
    CON: 21.2% (-12.2)
    UKIP: 9.7% (-7.3)
    GRN: 3.1% (+3.1)
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    LD hold.

    #PeakKipper

    Chadsmead (Lichfield) result:
    LDEM: 40.0% (+14.9)
    LAB: 26.0% (+1.6)
    CON: 21.2% (-12.2)
    UKIP: 9.7% (-7.3)
    GRN: 3.1% (+3.1)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Huge thanks to Harry for these fabulous by election slots.

    Sorry to hear about your Grandmother - hope things improve on all fronts soon.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited February 2016
    Lisa Nandy on Trump Corbyn:

    "You start with something that is just adding a bit of colour to politics, you start with something that looks like a bit of a sideshow. And what you end up with is that it gathers pace, and then at the end it has real and profound consequence for people's lives"
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    MP_SE said:

    "3 million jobs" has become a joke phrase judging by the Question Time audience reaction to June Sarpong.

    What happened?
    Jeering as soon as she started to say '3 mill...'. The audience seems strongly for Leave.
    Would be funny if 3 million jobs were lost
    Be careful what you wish for once the global sovereign debt crisis gets underway
    You were saying it was "utter cr*p" at 11.05 pm.
    That was the 3 million jobs lost if we leave the EU 'claim'. The global sovereign debt crisis began in the EU with Greece, and they have 60% youth unemployment, so if anyone is responsible for 3 million jobs lost its the EU and all its regulatory burden / high taxes etc
    So are you predicting 3 million job losses in the UK on any particular timescale?
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    CON GAIN (from LD)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
    Amersham Town (Chiltern) result:
    CON: 50.2% (+11.6)
    LDEM: 36.3% (+3.3)
    UKIP: 6.9% (-7.4)
    LAB: 6.6% (-7.6)

    #LibDemFightBack #PeakUkip
    #CorbynManiaSweepsTheNation
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    RobD said:

    I'd rather watch the last act of 2009 Star Trek on Film4 than QT...

    Serenity starts at 11.50, however

    Do we still have a This Week today? Parliament is in recess, so no Daily Politics this week.
    Ooops, Serenity starts at 11.30 tonight.
    Thanks -

    I nearly took your 11.50pm ;-)
    "I aim to misbehave!" :lol:
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    CON GAIN (from LD)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
    Amersham Town (Chiltern) result:
    CON: 50.2% (+11.6)
    LDEM: 36.3% (+3.3)
    UKIP: 6.9% (-7.4)
    LAB: 6.6% (-7.6)

    #LibDemFightBack #PeakUkip
    #CorbynManiaSweepsTheNation
    Corbania, surely :p
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    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    Chadsmead ought to be a Labour area. LDs winning instead.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Excellent map

    Where are grammar schools situated in England now? #bbcqt https://t.co/XusAf32MFF https://t.co/EVBdt7BNWJ
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    I told y'all it would be a long night.

    It's not theatre, it's exactly the same as any negotiation, or company takeover deal. They tend to go on late into the night.

    The only difference here is that the deadline is not absolute, so it might break up tomorrow with no deal.

    If so, a deal will be done when the participants do all think they've hit the deadline.
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    RobD said:

    To be fair, the Tories did top the poll in the ward previously (see above), so it's a bit of a technical gain.

    A technical gain is the best kind of gain ;)
    Just like a technical hold is the best kind of hold.

    Exhibit 1) Rochester and Strood, Con Hold at GE2015
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    I'd be mega chuffed.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    edited February 2016
    Of course, shrewdies/people with insight call 'peak whatever' at its peak... Calling it after it has peaked is of no use to anyone
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    Wanderer said:

    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    MP_SE said:

    "3 million jobs" has become a joke phrase judging by the Question Time audience reaction to June Sarpong.

    What happened?
    Jeering as soon as she started to say '3 mill...'. The audience seems strongly for Leave.
    Would be funny if 3 million jobs were lost
    Be careful what you wish for once the global sovereign debt crisis gets underway
    You were saying it was "utter cr*p" at 11.05 pm.
    That was the 3 million jobs lost if we leave the EU 'claim'. The global sovereign debt crisis began in the EU with Greece, and they have 60% youth unemployment, so if anyone is responsible for 3 million jobs lost its the EU and all its regulatory burden / high taxes etc
    So are you predicting 3 million job losses in the UK on any particular timescale?
    The day after we vote Leave, surely?
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    Excellent map

    Where are grammar schools situated in England now? #bbcqt https://t.co/XusAf32MFF https://t.co/EVBdt7BNWJ

    Ilford County High :)
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    >

    English is the best language in the world!

    Very possibly but I am told that Persian is the most beautiful, and having listened to some Persian poetry on the wireless last week ("In our Time" on Radio 4, worth the licence fee on its own) I can see where such a view comes from.
    Wasn't it Harry Flashman who said that Persian was the most beautiful language ?

    Was this the episode you heard:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VBy07GaFMw

    For those who want to hear some Persian poetry:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WckiDUODGQ
    I think it might well have been Flashman, was it in "Flashman at the Charge"?

    As to the in Our Time episode it wasn't the one you mentioned but the one broadcast on 11/2/16 dealing with the poet Rumi.

    Thanks for the link to that poetry "broadcast", beautiful stuff.


    It was 'Flashman at the Charge', IMO perhaps the best of the series.

    And thanks for mentioning the 'In Our Time' series - I've never heard of it before but I see there's plenty on YouTube to listen to:

    ...
    Flashman at the Charge the best of the series? Not so sure about that; it is certainly very good and a lot better than some of the others. However, I reckon "Flashman in the Great Game" beat its by several lengths and "Flashman and the Dragon" noses it back into third place.

    As for the the "In Our Time" programme, it is superb. The Thursday morning 45 minute edition (not the cut down repeat on Saturday evening) is, as I say, worth the Licence Fee all on its own. Even when the topic is not something I would normally be interested in (e.g. an obscure 13th century Persian poet) The format of the programme manages to grab my attention and I cannot help but learn.
    I would go:

    Charge
    Game
    Dragon

    It's interesting that you also think those are three best.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Grammar school debate: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I missed this

    Bernie Sanders' letter to Margaret Thatcher accusing her government of "abuse, humiliation" of IRA hunger strikers. https://t.co/Qef2gjRrL4
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    I see Man Utd lost 2-1 in Denmark tonight

    Peak van Gaal
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    isam said:

    Of course, shrewdies/people with insight call 'peak whatever' at its peak... Calling it after it has peaked is of no use to anyone

    @Pong was the only one on here who called (Local) Peak Trump correctly.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Grammar school debate: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    The debate mainly consists of people saying that all kids are above average.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    How would you react with you wanting us to stay in ? The remain camp cameron fanatics views much more interesting ;-)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    BBC3 no longer on air

    Peak BBC3
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dem gain Cambs Sutton from Conservatives
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    The lukewarm Europhile Corbyn would have to go on about how Cameron had, er, "jeopardised three million jobs by....er - why is everybody laughing at me?"
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    isam said:

    BBC3 no longer on air

    Peak BBC3

    Good start - more to follow !!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grammar school debate: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    The debate mainly consists of people saying that all kids are above average.
    Energy debate zzzzzzzzzzzz

    Going to try and find a POTUS contender rally on youtube.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    If people are shivering at home, why can't they put a few woolly jumpers on?
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    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    How would you react with you wanting us to stay in ? The remain camp cameron fanatics views much more interesting ;-)
    I'm leaning Remain, if that were to happen then I'd switch to almost certainly Leave. Not simply because Cameron has recommended it but because if we can't get even these reforms through then it's clear we have no influence and no point remaining.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    Someone called Alex von Tunzelmann on Sky News Paper Review.
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    Lib Dem gain Cambs Sutton from Conservatives

    LDEM: 52.5% (+19.8)
    CON: 32.2% (-17.2)
    UKIP: 10.3% (+10.3)
    IND: 5.0% (+5.0)

    Big swing, partly explained by changes in the parties contesting I expect.
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    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    I'd be annoyed I hadn't put more money on Leave.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good night for the LDs. Not reflecting the national polls where they're on about 7%.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    isam said:

    Of course, shrewdies/people with insight call 'peak whatever' at its peak... Calling it after it has peaked is of no use to anyone

    Not if they are making a funny. ;)

    Or at least attempting to... :p
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    I would be extremely happy. Even if it was just a negotiating tactic to concentrate minds at the EC.
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    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.

    The Pope is just recording a slot for the Rubio campaign. Huge advantage that Marco Rubio sounds good in Latin.
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    Labour hold Blackley
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.

    You'll need to keep all your cash available to take free money from the fools betting on Leave?
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MaxPB said:

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    I would be extremely happy. Even if it was just a negotiating tactic to concentrate minds at the EC.
    I was going to say "It might be a tactic" but it couldn't be, could it? Once he says that, in public, there's no going back.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Good night for the LDs. Not reflecting the national polls where they're on about 7%.

    UKIP vote down everywhere , not reflecting the national polls .... Hmmm
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    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.

    The Pope is just recording a slot for the Rubio campaign. Huge advantage that Marco Rubio sounds good in Latin.
    I bet every so often you regret not finishing that Rubio thread.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Fox GOP

    Trump 36
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 15
    Bush 9
    Carson 9
    Kasich 8
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-trump-still-leads-national-race-for-gop-nomination.html

    General Election

    Clinton 47 Trump 42
    Clinton 45 Cruz 46
    Clinton 44 Rubio 48
    Clinton 44 Kasich 47
    Clinton 45 Bush 46

    Sanders 53 Trump 38

    Clinton 39 Trump 37 Bloomberg 17
    Sanders 46 Trump 35 Bloomberg 12

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-national-presidential-race-february-18-2016/
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The pattern continues to reaffirm my expectations that the EU referendum is causing voters to express their displeasure with the government at every opportunity as long as it's not a GE.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Wanderer said:

    >

    English is the best language in the world!

    Very possibly but I am told that Persian is the most beautiful, and having listened to some Persian poetry on the wireless last week ("In our Time" on Radio 4, worth the licence fee on its own) I can see where such a view comes from.
    Wasn't it Harry Flashman who said that Persian was the most beautiful language ?

    Was this the episode you heard:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VBy07GaFMw

    For those who want to hear some Persian poetry:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WckiDUODGQ
    I think it might well have been Flashman, was it in "Flashman at the Charge"?

    As to the in Our Time episode it wasn't the one you mentioned but the one broadcast on 11/2/16 dealing with the poet Rumi.

    Thanks for the link to that poetry "broadcast", beautiful stuff.


    It was 'Flashman at the Charge', IMO perhaps the best of the series.

    And thanks for mentioning the 'In Our Time' series - I've never heard of it before but I see there's plenty on YouTube to listen to:

    ...
    Flashman at the Charge the best of the series? Not so sure about that; it is certainly very good and a lot better than some of the others. However, I reckon "Flashman in the Great Game" beat its by several lengths and "Flashman and the Dragon" noses it back into third place.

    As for the the "In Our Time" programme, it is superb. The Thursday morning 45 minute edition (not the cut down repeat on Saturday evening) is, as I say, worth the Licence Fee all on its own. Even when the topic is not something I would normally be interested in (e.g. an obscure 13th century Persian poet) The format of the programme manages to grab my attention and I cannot help but learn.
    I would go:

    Charge
    Game
    Dragon

    It's interesting that you also think those are three best.
    Game
    Charge
    Dragon

    I miss GMF, I wish he'd written the American Civil War book.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Good night for the LDs. Not reflecting the national polls where they're on about 7%.

    UKIP vote down everywhere , not reflecting the national polls .... Hmmm
    Rallings & Thrasher used to think local elections were a good indicator of the national situation but I think they changed their mind a few years ago.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Wanderer said:

    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    hunchman said:

    Wanderer said:

    MP_SE said:

    "3 million jobs" has become a joke phrase judging by the Question Time audience reaction to June Sarpong.

    What happened?
    Jeering as soon as she started to say '3 mill...'. The audience seems strongly for Leave.
    Would be funny if 3 million jobs were lost
    Be careful what you wish for once the global sovereign debt crisis gets underway
    You were saying it was "utter cr*p" at 11.05 pm.
    That was the 3 million jobs lost if we leave the EU 'claim'. The global sovereign debt crisis began in the EU with Greece, and they have 60% youth unemployment, so if anyone is responsible for 3 million jobs lost its the EU and all its regulatory burden / high taxes etc
    So are you predicting 3 million job losses in the UK on any particular timescale?
    Am not going to commit to that. There's a lot of moving parts. If and when we really get into trouble there could be a lot of emigration which would dampen any rise in unemployment. Also the birth rate was very low around the millenium so its not as though there are lots of people coming into the labour market and we have a relatively high proportion of people reaching retirement age....if they can afford to retire. So demographics / net migration could easily mitigate against a large rise. Plus very weak GBP that I think will happen over the next 2 or 3 years should support the labour market, as well as all the usual labour market flexibility arguments......lets see, its going to be an interesting ride.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:
    There is a reason why I don't include partisan pollsters in any polling average.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Labour hold Blackley

    Confusingly pronounced "Blakely".
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good night for the LDs. Not reflecting the national polls where they're on about 7%.

    UKIP vote down everywhere , not reflecting the national polls .... Hmmm
    Rallings & Thrasher used to think local elections were a good indicator of the national situation but I think they changed their mind a few years ago.
    They were a pretty good predictor of last May's Lib Dem and UKIP GE performance . Note also 2 more UKIP councillors leaving the party this week in Hull and West Sussex
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grammar school debate: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    The debate mainly consists of people saying that all kids are above average.
    And they are!

    There is a bell shaped curve of normal distribution, but also a significant number of children with various cognitive impairments. Therefore it is a skewed deviation with the Median higher than the Mean and most kids are above average.

    Best wishes to grandma HH.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2016

    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.

    The Pope is just recording a slot for the Rubio campaign. Huge advantage that Marco Rubio sounds good in Latin.
    I bet every so often you regret not finishing that Rubio thread.
    It might yet get written. The working title was "It's not too late to get on the Rubio train"

    With sub-headings: "Calling at all stations to Cleveland" + "And change for the White House"

    But I didn't write it because I didn't love the price enough. Even now I still think it will somehow be Rubio, but concur with Mr Nabavi that Trump looks value.

    Currently something like

    Biden +23
    Trump +14
    Rubio +9
    Cruz +3
    Hillary -3
    everyone else -7
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824
    edited February 2016

    Lib Dem gain Cambs Sutton from Conservatives

    Fight back starts here...

    Go back to your constituency's a prepare for government... In 2100! :smiley:
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited February 2016
    John_M said:

    Wanderer said:

    >

    English is the best language in the world!

    Very possibly but I am told that Persian is the most beautiful, and having listened to some Persian poetry on the wireless last week ("In our Time" on Radio 4, worth the licence fee on its own) I can see where such a view comes from.
    Wasn't it Harry Flashman who said that Persian was the most beautiful language ?

    Was this the episode you heard:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VBy07GaFMw

    For those who want to hear some Persian poetry:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WckiDUODGQ
    I think it might well have been Flashman, was it in "Flashman at the Charge"?

    As to the in Our Time episode it wasn't the one you mentioned but the one broadcast on 11/2/16 dealing with the poet Rumi.

    Thanks for the link to that poetry "broadcast", beautiful stuff.


    It was 'Flashman at the Charge', IMO perhaps the best of the series.

    And thanks for mentioning the 'In Our Time' series - I've never heard of it before but I see there's plenty on YouTube to listen to:

    ...
    Flashman at the Charge the best of the series? Not so sure about that; it is certainly very good and a lot better than some of the others. However, I reckon "Flashman in the Great Game" beat its by several lengths and "Flashman and the Dragon" noses it back into third place.

    As for the the "In Our Time" programme, it is superb. The Thursday morning 45 minute edition (not the cut down repeat on Saturday evening) is, as I say, worth the Licence Fee all on its own. Even when the topic is not something I would normally be interested in (e.g. an obscure 13th century Persian poet) The format of the programme manages to grab my attention and I cannot help but learn.
    I would go:

    Charge
    Game
    Dragon

    It's interesting that you also think those are three best.
    Game
    Charge
    Dragon

    I miss GMF, I wish he'd written the American Civil War book.
    Yes! And he seemed to put it off, wilfully, for the last two decades of his life.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good night for the LDs. Not reflecting the national polls where they're on about 7%.

    UKIP vote down everywhere , not reflecting the national polls .... Hmmm
    Rallings & Thrasher used to think local elections were a good indicator of the national situation but I think they changed their mind a few years ago.
    The Tories were certainly doing better in local elections than a tie with Labour in the polls in the run up to GE2015....which was one of the factors in me thinking the Tories were ahead, albeit not by as much as 7% in the final result, as I foolishly believed it to be impossible that the polls could be that wrong.

    I still think enough of a sample is a good indicator of where the land lies personally.

    Good night all.
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    The trouble with Rubio is that coming a creditable third in a series of contests ain't gonna cut the mustard.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.

    The Pope is just recording a slot for the Rubio campaign. Huge advantage that Marco Rubio sounds good in Latin.
    Zeke MillerVerified account ‏@ZekeJMiller 3h3 hours ago
    Marco Rubio sides with Donald Trump in spat with the Pope @CNNPolitics http://cnn.it/1SCyZQq

    As I said, 2 days till voting time and every republican, even those who detest Trump, are forced to take his side.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:
    There is a reason why I don't include partisan pollsters in any polling average.
    CBS

    Dems national

    Clinton 47
    Sanders 39
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-national-poll-hillary-clinton-holds-lead-over-bernie-sanders/

    GOP national

    Trump 35
    Cruz 18
    Rubio 12
    Kasich 11
    Carson 6
    Bush 4
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-gop-race-trump-remains-on-top-hell-get-things-done/
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    Loads more holds coming in and an SNP gain - see here for details: https://twitter.com/britainelects
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    Con hold

    Toton & Chilwell Meadows (Broxtowe) result:
    CON: 51.9% (+0.3)
    LAB: 21.0% (-3.4)
    LDEM: 20.7% (+20.7)
    GRN: 6.3% (-5.2)
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Suffolk Newmarket Con hold

    Con 644 UKIP 494 Lab 234 Ind 123 LD 76
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824
    edited February 2016
    If people can remember (I was only 3 years old in 1980) was the view of Ronald Reagan becoming the Republican candidate and then POTUS greeted with the incredulity here and elsewhere like Trump is?
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    AndyJS said:

    Labour hold Blackley

    Confusingly pronounced "Blakely".
    Bradley Lane is pronounced Braid-ley
    Cradley Heath is pronounced Crade-ley
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Rubio playing a somewhat cute game with Trump. Perhaps VP !
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Campaign Tim (it's starting to feel that way) reporting:

    Kasich had an event at Clemson today, so I went up I-85 for an hour to attend.

    I was impressed by him. He talks a lot of sense, although all the Ohio stuff does pall a bit after the first 250 times. He has a great resume.

    Far and away the highlight was a young man (in a Georgia vest for which he apologized!) who told his tale of woe, confirmed he was a Kasich fan, and asked Kasich for one of his hugs. Kasich walked right up and gave him a big hug.

    I've never seen anything like it. The man is utterly genuine. After Trump it was so nice to hear positive stuff without any name calling or insults.

    I was about 6 rows behind the man in the Georgia vest sitting at the back.

    He's gone up on my list from Possible to Maybe.

    On the way home things went from sublime to ridiculous - I heard on the radio that the pope has picked a fight with Donald Trump.

    This has just been put up on Youtube, an excerpt from The Five program today.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkmAbNPPxlE
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    If people can remember (I was only 3 years old in 1980) was the view of Ronald Reagan become the Republican candidate and then President greeted with the incredulity here and elsewhere like Trump is?

    More or less. But Ronnie had at least been governor of California, so had more political experience.

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    Can someone please talk me out of increasing my Prez Trump position at 6.6? My only doubt is that it looks too good to be true that these odds are still available.

    The Pope is just recording a slot for the Rubio campaign. Huge advantage that Marco Rubio sounds good in Latin.
    I bet every so often you regret not finishing that Rubio thread.
    It might yet get written. The working title was "It's not too late to get on the Rubio train"

    With sub-headings: "Calling at all stations to Cleveland" + "And change for the White House"

    But I didn't write it because I didn't love the price enough. Even now I still think it will somehow be Rubio, but concur with Mr Nabavi that Trump looks value.

    Currently something like

    Biden +23
    Trump +14
    Rubio +9
    Cruz +3
    Hillary -3
    everyone else -7
    There's a thread in drafts from last September saying 'Trump and Sanders aren't the American Corbyn'

    Said you should be laying them.

    Thank Allah I never published that, would have been my Sion Simon moment.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824

    GIN1138 said:

    If people can remember (I was only 3 years old in 1980) was the view of Ronald Reagan become the Republican candidate and then President greeted with the incredulity here and elsewhere like Trump is?

    More or less. But Ronnie had at least been governor of California, so had more political experience.

    He made some terrible movies though. ;)
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    GIN1138 said:

    If people can remember (I was only 3 years old in 1980) was the view of Ronald Reagan becoming the Republican candidate and then POTUS greeted with the incredulity here and elsewhere like Trump is?

    I was only born in 82 but while it's often forgotten and misrembered that Reagan was "merely an actor", he was Governor of California for 8 years before running for the Presidency.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited February 2016

    Not that I can imagine it happening but I'm really curious how people would react if Cameron came out tomorrow with a statement along the lines of "I proposed modest reforms to the EU but agreement can not be reached so with great sadness I must recommend we Leave."

    And he won on his leave recommendation,for me he would go down has one our greatest PM's

    Build bloody statue's of him I say ;-)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    BTW- best wishes to Harry and his family.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    isam said:

    I see Man Utd lost 2-1 in Denmark tonight

    Peak van Gaal

    If that's the peak, I'd hate to see the trough.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
    Right so we are supposed to be fooled by a fake benefits "ban" for 13 years if, like, everybody else agrees at the time #Brexit #BrexitRisks

    One of camerons's great fans our Louise.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    @Tim_B Kasich looks the pick of the field, must say.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    GIN1138 said:

    If people can remember (I was only 3 years old in 1980) was the view of Ronald Reagan becoming the Republican candidate and then POTUS greeted with the incredulity here and elsewhere like Trump is?

    Reagan had been governor of CA so was an experienced pol. By the time of his inauguration most of the mirth had dispersed. When the air traffic controllers went on strike and he fired them all the laughter stopped for good.

    Unfortunately I don't remember you at 3 :)
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    Higher Blackley (Manchester) result:
    LAB: 65.3% (+10.5)
    UKIP: 18.9% (-14.0)
    CON: 8.0% (+1.9)
    LDEM: 4.8% (+3.1)
    GRN: 2.5% (-2.0)
    PIR: 0.6%
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If people can remember (I was only 3 years old in 1980) was the view of Ronald Reagan become the Republican candidate and then President greeted with the incredulity here and elsewhere like Trump is?

    More or less. But Ronnie had at least been governor of California, so had more political experience.

    He made some terrible movies though. ;)
    He was a bit of a folksy ham actor, but that goes down well in a lot of the US. He also was quite a successful trade unionist as I recall too:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/11/what-reagan-did-for-hollywood/248391/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Loads more holds coming in and an SNP gain - see here for details: https://twitter.com/britainelects

    No news yet as to whether or not there is a HUGE Scottish Tory surge in Oban North & Lorn (Argyll & Bute).....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016

    AndyJS said:

    Labour hold Blackley

    Confusingly pronounced "Blakely".
    Bradley Lane is pronounced Braid-ley
    Cradley Heath is pronounced Crade-ley
    I didn't know those two. Only seen them written.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I see Man Utd lost 2-1 in Denmark tonight

    Peak van Gaal

    If that's the peak, I'd hate to see the trough.
    I see our great premier league having a good couple of nights again this year.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Having looked at the Martin Armstrong blog, I can now confidently predict that the Euro will end on the 202nd day of 2016 because there was exactly some period between Bretton Woods beginning and the beginning of the Euro.

    You heard it from Hunchman first.
This discussion has been closed.