It splits people into seven categories, with some figures on the size of each category and its typical members. E.g
A quarter of us are Nothing to Lose voters, who think Britain is on the wrong track, are worried about immigration, and think we should definitely go.
One in seven are in the Global Britain group – who are optimistic for the UK, believe staying in the EU is a bigger risk than leaving, and think we’d do better in the global economy outside the EU.
Obviously, the numbers are pretty unreliable, but it does give a vague idea what to expect. If the pro and anti sides are seeing similar breakdowns of the electorate, I'd expect both campaigns to focus on the 20% 'hard-pressed undecided' category. These voters favoured Labour at the last election, by 42% to 31%, and are the most likely to work in the public sector. They're also the most pessimistic about the state of the country, and its future.
Global Britain for me. As I would guess are most Britains who live outside the EU.
But see the other side. That is actually an EU ambassador admitting that, if we voted OUT, the EU would then offer us better terms, in a second referendum, in the hope that we could be persuaded to return.
Someone needs to tell him that comments like that will drive people towards a Leave vote.
Why is everyone who opens their mouth on the EU arguing against their own position? Mind boggling.
Would still produce delegates of the order of 44,3,3 or 47,3 or even 50 for the Donald...
15% cutoff point >?
No, WTA2.
Statewide winner gets 29. CD winner gets 3 (x7).
The CDs will probably follow a cube law quite closely. Would be fairly unlikely for anyone other than Big D to win any, although it's not impossible. Cruz looks most likely to win one, just possibly.
No, I take the Huff Poll 7-day median, where it exists, or the median of the last 3 polls, if not. This bit is auto-updated in the Auto tab, as well in the state tabs, e.g. the SC tab.
Huff Polling are quite fast to update, but sometimes they seem to reject a poll as not meeting their selection criteria, or if they don't have enough polls they don't create an auto updating CSV file. In some cases I have added a polling median manually, as some data is surely better than none.
There really is a slow flow of polls this election cycle.
OK - Apologies I've been updating with rcp info - feel free to undo. Or actually ince you're using that for the auto tab no reason not to use rcp on custom...
It is not for the Pope to question someone's salvation. By all means he can and should rebuke professing Christians for un-Christian behaviour, but whether Trump is a Christian is between him and God.
Trump will probably say he is going to be building bridges - over his wall. How else can he deport all those Mexicans?
"One senior EU diplomat said the push for a “self destruct” clause reflected the “gloom” around Brussels over the prospects of Mr Cameron’s winning a referendum campaign to stay in the EU. Another ambassador in Brussels doubted there would be support for the Franco-Belgian clause. “We’ll need a second referendum,” the ambassador said. “We need the UK in the EU""
I'm not sure what that means. That they wouldn't grant us a second referendum to 'think again' if we did vote Leave, or that there will never be another negotiation + referendum like this, or they want to try and deny us a second vote *ever*? (Last of which makes no sense since it's not up to them and an exit clause is in Lisbon)
It doesn't make any sense that I can make out. Who could be bound by a no-second-referendum clause? Not the UK, evidently. And not the EU in any practical sense.
That said, I can't imagine a second referendum bill getting through Parliament unless there was a very clear public demand for it, which seems implausible.
Would still produce delegates of the order of 44,3,3 or 47,3 or even 50 for the Donald...
15% cutoff point >?
No, WTA2.
Statewide winner gets 29. CD winner gets 3 (x7).
The CDs will probably follow a cube law quite closely. Would be fairly unlikely for anyone other than Big D to win any, although it's not impossible. Cruz looks most likely to win one, just possibly.
No, I take the Huff Poll 7-day median, where it exists, or the median of the last 3 polls, if not. This bit is auto-updated in the Auto tab, as well in the state tabs, e.g. the SC tab.
Huff Polling are quite fast to update, but sometimes they seem to reject a poll as not meeting their selection criteria, or if they don't have enough polls they don't create an auto updating CSV file. In some cases I have added a polling median manually, as some data is surely better than none.
There really is a slow flow of polls this election cycle.
OK - Apologies I've been updating with rcp info - feel free to undo. Or actually ince you're using that for the auto tab no reason not to use rcp on custom...
Yeah, you can play with Custom to your heart's content.
Sam Wang of Princeton uses the 7-day median (or 3 latest) to predict the general election [perfectly last time], so I thought I'd use that.
Minimal differences at this stage for predicting the GOP race.
If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.
It is not for the Pope to question someone's salvation. By all means he can and should rebuke professing Christians for un-Christian behaviour, but whether Trump is a Christian is between him and God.
If the Pope isn't qualified to comment on unchristian behaviour-which is all he has done- then who is?
More to the point Norway has a vote on these bodies which gives it influence. The UK does not have a vote on these bodies in any area where we have delegated competence to the EU.
You are very selective. Somehow a vote of Norway gives it influence in the WTO, but a vote of the UK doesn't give it influence in the EU
Seems a bit implausible, does it not?
As for your link, colour me (Euro?)-sceptical when one of the headlines is:
Minister of Foreign Affairs Børge Brende discussed trade in Davos
Most countries need to team up with similarly-minded countries to represent their interests in the WTO. The UK is of course a member in its own right anyway.
The UK is a member which cannot vote on any issues where they have ceded authority to the EU - like trade. Kind of fundamental at the World TRADE Organisation.
The same goes for Codex Alimentarius.
Anyway we have seen how much 'influence' the UK has in the EU. The answer for anyone who is looking at it dispassionately is - bugger all.
If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.
The Eurocrat mind-set is to offer nothing. The little people only get their opening proposal once they have voted out - or no. They really do need to be shocked out of this default setting.
I suspect if we then did get a second referendum, with what they are truly prepared to offer us, the EU would get a Winchester re-run style two-fingered salute from the Brits. Which would be humiliating on an epic scale - for both Brussels and Cameron.
It is not for the Pope to question someone's salvation. By all means he can and should rebuke professing Christians for un-Christian behaviour, but whether Trump is a Christian is between him and God.
If the Pope isn't qualified to comment on unchristian behaviour-which is all he has done- then who is?
Why has he not mentioned Ted Cruz though, who is also planning to build a wall !
What you are ignoring there though is that Norway has MORE influence at the level where much legislation is decided which is above the EU level.
Hmm. Any examples of Norway's influence?
Norway host the Fish and Fishery Products Committee. The Committee is responsible for standards for fresh and frozen fish, crustaceans, and mollusks.
Norway is able to ensure that the interests of one of their vital industries are represented on the international stage.
Good for them.
So can we. Being a member of the EU does not prevent us lobbying and influencing the WTO and its committees. Whilst the EU adopts a common position for all its members in nearly all cases, we are full members of the WTO in our own right, and can speak in committees and sponsor papers.
The question is: would we have more influence if we did not agree a common position with our EU friends first? On the one hand we represent a much smaller proportion of world trade than the EU does, on the other hand we'd be able to present a different view from our EU friends. Not obvious which is more influential.
If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.
Donald J. Trump
Blimey !
Hah. Go, the Donald.
And, by the by, fuck the Pope. Not his job.
Fuck the Pope
When I was younger, that phrase as used as code for our lineout calls.
I wonder how the (much more religious) American electorate will view the Pope's meddling. Will it persuade floating voters Trump should not be supported, or anger and outrage them, making more turn to Trump?
I think what we are missing with all these draft negotiations, the will-he, won't-hes, the statements, the conjecture, a second referendum, the focus on his performance...
...and all the press coverage, good, bad and indifferent...
...is the fact that these negotiations aimed low, will probably achieve their aim, and will be portrayed as a humungously stonking victory for Cam.
That almost alone is likely to swing it to REMAIN.
I wonder how the (much more religious) American electorate will view the Pope's meddling. Will it persuade floating voters Trump should not be supported, or anger and outrage them, making more turn to Trump?
I can only go on evidence, Mr Morris. When the most reverend and holy order of the Guardian reader tried to influence Ohio, they were verily told to go forth and multiply.
I wonder how the (much more religious) American electorate will view the Pope's meddling. Will it persuade floating voters Trump should not be supported, or anger and outrage them, making more turn to Trump?
With 69.5 million members, it is the largest religious body in the United States, comprising 22% of the population as of 2015. The United States has the fourth largest Catholic population in the world. That's quite a large minority, the question is how many of them take enough notice of what the Pope says to affect their vote.
If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.
Donald J. Trump
Blimey !
Hah. Go, the Donald.
And, by the by, fuck the Pope. Not his job.
Fuck the Pope
When I was younger, that phrase as used as code for our lineout calls.
What you are ignoring there though is that Norway has MORE influence at the level where much legislation is decided which is above the EU level.
Hmm. Any examples of Norway's influence?
Norway host the Fish and Fishery Products Committee. The Committee is responsible for standards for fresh and frozen fish, crustaceans, and mollusks.
Norway is able to ensure that the interests of one of their vital industries are represented on the international stage.
Good for them.
So can we. Being a member of the EU does not prevent us lobbying and influencing the WTO and its committees. Whilst the EU adopts a common position for all its members in nearly all cases, we are full members of the WTO in our own right, and can speak in committees and sponsor papers.
The question is: would we have more influence if we did not agree a common position with our EU friends first? On the one hand we represent a much smaller proportion of world trade than the EU does, on the other hand we'd be able to present a different view from our EU friends. Not obvious which is more influential.
It prevents us having a vote though doesn't it Richard. It cedes decisions over things like fishing to a group of countries including Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Luxembourg. What do all those countries have in common I wonder?
TGOHF The Pope should attend a screening of Spotlight...let him see how corrupt his organisation really is
I think you miss the point. Trump like most Americans parades his Christianity like a medal. The Pope is simply using his authority to call his bullshit for what it is. Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
It prevents us having a vote though doesn't it Richard. It cedes decisions over things like fishing to a group of countries including Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Luxembourg. What do all those countries have in common I wonder?
Oh yes, they are landlocked.
Sure, I accept that. The CFP is one of the valid points in favour of an EEA-style (or any other) deal in preference to membership of the EU.
What you are ignoring there though is that Norway has MORE influence at the level where much legislation is decided which is above the EU level.
Hmm. Any examples of Norway's influence?
Norway host the Fish and Fishery Products Committee. The Committee is responsible for standards for fresh and frozen fish, crustaceans, and mollusks.
Norway is able to ensure that the interests of one of their vital industries are represented on the international stage.
Good for them.
So can we. Being a member of the EU does not prevent us lobbying and influencing the WTO and its committees. Whilst the EU adopts a common position for all its members in nearly all cases, we are full members of the WTO in our own right, and can speak in committees and sponsor papers.
The question is: would we have more influence if we did not agree a common position with our EU friends first? On the one hand we represent a much smaller proportion of world trade than the EU does, on the other hand we'd be able to present a different view from our EU friends. Not obvious which is more influential.
You have zero grasp of how legislation is formed and I will no longer be engaging with you as it is like talking to a brickwall.
TGOHF The Pope should attend a screening of Spotlight...let him see how corrupt his organisation really is
I think you miss the point. Trump like most Americans parades his Christianity like a medal. The Pope is simply using his authority to call his bullshit for what it is. Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
The last time we did it was called the Great Schism.
Mr. Taffys, true, but I'd guess the Pope is held in higher esteem than the Guardian. Well, by some people.
Its a fascinating question Mr Morris, and one of a series of totally extraordinary off the scale events that probably started with the tories getting a majority in May.
It is not for the Pope to question someone's salvation. By all means he can and should rebuke professing Christians for un-Christian behaviour, but whether Trump is a Christian is between him and God.
If the Pope isn't qualified to comment on unchristian behaviour-which is all he has done- then who is?
Isn't it a case where Catholic and Protestant perspectives differ.
On a traditional Catholic view the Pope is the Vicar of Christ on Earth and, if Trump were a Catholic, could excommunicate him. On that view he can certainly opine as to his status.
On the Protestant view a person's faith is between them and God and such things as whether they are saved are unknowable to anyone else. As that way of thinking is more familiar to me it seems presumptuous and even faintly blasphemous for the Pope to say that Trump is not a Christian at all. However, if what he actually said was that Trump was proposing to do unChristian things - that he was behaving like a bad Christian in other words - that would be unexceptional (and rather boring).
It prevents us having a vote though doesn't it Richard. It cedes decisions over things like fishing to a group of countries including Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Luxembourg. What do all those countries have in common I wonder?
Oh yes, they are landlocked.
Sure, I accept that. The CFP is one of the valid points in favour of an EEA-style (or any other) deal in preference to membership of the EU.
It goes further than that.
I would strongly recommend looking at this piece by Richard North on UNECE and how it works in comparison to the EU. This is the sort of international co-operation we should be looking at - by mutual consent rather than dictat.
I wonder how the (much more religious) American electorate will view the Pope's meddling. Will it persuade floating voters Trump should not be supported, or anger and outrage them, making more turn to Trump?
With 69.5 million members, it is the largest religious body in the United States, comprising 22% of the population as of 2015. The United States has the fourth largest Catholic population in the world. That's quite a large minority, the question is how many of them take enough notice of what the Pope says to affect their vote.
If you look hard enough you might find someone who is changing their vote. It's hard to believe that the god-fearing and those that support Trump are sets that overlap a great deal though.
I've no idea what the answer might be, but what percentage of American Catholics disapprove of contraception? I think that'd be a decent guide to how much impact the Pope might have.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation..it will never be a problem for him.. just the parents and the bloody kids..He spreads despondency throughout the world..
TGOHF The Pope should attend a screening of Spotlight...let him see how corrupt his organisation really is
I think you miss the point. Trump like most Americans parades his Christianity like a medal. The Pope is simply using his authority to call his bullshit for what it is. Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
Thanks to Martin Luther originally, and Henry VIII (settled by Elizabeth I) in this country, I can be a Christian and not take a blind bit of notice of what the Pope says or does.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
Catholics are 8% in S.Carolina. In Nevada they are 24% (mostly Hispanics), but Nevada is not actually famous for being religious, and Hispanics where not likely to vote in the republican primaries anyway.
It might hurt Trump only in New England if Irish-Americans are a large share of republicans there. So in the primaries it might hurt Trump in geographical areas where he is strongest and in the GE where he is weakest.
Though I would keep an eye on Florida where cuban americans are a large share of both the GOP and the wider electorate to see if there is an impact there, if there is no impact there in the polling then Trump would emerge once again unharmed from institutional criticism.
I would strongly recommend looking at this piece by Richard North on UNECE and how it works in comparison to the EU. This is the sort of international co-operation we should be looking at - by mutual consent rather than dictat.
If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.
Donald J. Trump
Blimey !
Hah. Go, the Donald.
And, by the by, fuck the Pope. Not his job.
Can't let that go by without the Tim Minchin reference
Edited the link as song is very NSFW. /youtu.be/pB958pxquj0
I am Catholic, and thought that song got across well the anger at the Church's reaction to the paedophile scandal. Of course it was a reference to the previous Pontiff
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
"The Pope also said in response to a question about whether contraception could be used to prevent Zika virus that for some cases the "lesser of two evils" can be used. He said abortion "is a crime, an absolute evil," but that avoiding pregnancy is not." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35607597
You have zero grasp of how legislation is formed and I will no longer be engaging with you as it is like talking to a brickwall.
To be honest, I haven't found any of your 'engagements' particularly interesting, so I expect I'll manage without them.
I wouldn't expect my engagements to. A loyal Tory fanatic is never going to react to any criticism of his beloved party. What was it you were trying to excuse the other day? By-election spending in Newark, Clacton and Rochester.
You have embarrassed yourself time and time again with your Tory fanaticism. I remember the entire day you spent arguing that we did not pay the EU's bill of £1.7bn in full. Unless you have knighthood in the pipeline your fanaticism is kind of sad.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation..it will never be a problem for him.. just the parents and the bloody kids..He spreads despondency throughout the world..
Surely a little fame/infamy must accrue to you Mr Dodd for starting a post "Roger the Pope". What are we to make of the double space, and the lack of a comma!?
June Sarpong's on Question Time, as is future Prime Minister Justine Greening.
Sadly, Mr. Dancer, although officially on the fence I did a bit of research last night and it seems Greening has values-signalled Remain a couple of times.
I'm still hoping for a couple of brave late surprises (Penny Mordaunt is a win) but I'm afraid it is just that - hope.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
I think that's a bit harsh. The pope has tried hard to move the Catholic church on from a blanket condemnation of gay men and lesbians and towards accepting people into the church for all their perceived faults. One of his first pronouncements as pope was to say "who am I to judge gay people?". It's generally thought that he would like to go further than he has but that he does not have the necessary support within the Vatican to do so.
On condoms, the pope has only today advised that it was proper for women to use condoms to avoid Zika virus. This seems like a huge step to me.
TGOHF The Pope should attend a screening of Spotlight...let him see how corrupt his organisation really is
I think you miss the point. Trump like most Americans parades his Christianity like a medal. The Pope is simply using his authority to call his bullshit for what it is. Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
The last time we did it was called the Great Schism.
I thought the last Great Schism was the Millibands
I would strongly recommend looking at this piece by Richard North on UNECE and how it works in comparison to the EU. This is the sort of international co-operation we should be looking at - by mutual consent rather than dictat.
Surely the problem, though, is in the last paragraph? It's not in the UK's power to make that happen.
That is just a bit of wishful thinking by Richard North. It doesn't actually detract from the main thrust of the piece explaining how Norway in EFTA (as an example) has more influence over new legislation than the UK does inside the EU.
Given Mexico is majority Catholic and the Catholic population in the US is increasingly Hispanic of course the Pope is not going to back a wall between the U.S. and Mexico
I wouldn't expect my engagements to. A loyal Tory fanatic is never going to react to any criticism of his beloved party. What was it you were trying to excuse the other day? By-election spending in Newark, Clacton and Rochester.
Clearly your reading comprehension is a bit limited. I wasn't trying to excuse anything. I was providing relevant information about how the spending limits might have been circumvented without breaking the law. We may find out in due course whether that was the case.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation..it will never be a problem for him.. just the parents and the bloody kids..He spreads despondency throughout the world..
Surely a little fame/infamy must accrue to you Mr Dodd for starting a post "Roger the Pope". What are we to make of the double space, and the lack of a comma!?
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
The Pope does not spread hate against homosexuals but it is also his duty as head of the Church to uphold Christian doctrine as laid down in the Bible i.e. sexual intercourse should take place in heterosexual marriage and not outside.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
I think that's a bit harsh. The pope has tried hard to move the Catholic church on from a blanket condemnation of gay men and lesbians and towards accepting people into the church for all their perceived faults. One of his first pronouncements as pope was to say "who am I to judge gay people?". It's generally thought that he would like to go further than he has but that he does not have the necessary support within the Vatican to do so.
On condoms, the pope has only today advised that it was proper for women to use condoms to avoid Zika virus. This seems like a huge step to me.
I hadn't heard the Zika news. That is good. But only a few days ago the Pope and the Patriarch of Moscow issued a joint statement condemning gay marriage.
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation..it will never be a problem for him.. just the parents and the bloody kids..He spreads despondency throughout the world..
If more Catholics have children and atheists do not who is going to be the winner in the end and have more influence in the ballot box?
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
I think that's a bit harsh. The pope has tried hard to move the Catholic church on from a blanket condemnation of gay men and lesbians and towards accepting people into the church for all their perceived faults. One of his first pronouncements as pope was to say "who am I to judge gay people?". It's generally thought that he would like to go further than he has but that he does not have the necessary support within the Vatican to do so.
On condoms, the pope has only today advised that it was proper for women to use condoms to avoid Zika virus. This seems like a huge step to me.
How can you be harsh in condemning a man that accepts a role which says he is infallible. He's almost literally asserting that he has some hotline to a divine being. His position is based on a complete lie. Now that doesn't make the good things that he says wrong, but it does entirely diminish the degree to which we should doff our caps.
TGOHF The Pope should attend a screening of Spotlight...let him see how corrupt his organisation really is
I think you miss the point. Trump like most Americans parades his Christianity like a medal. The Pope is simply using his authority to call his bullshit for what it is. Bravo to the Pope. We could do with more like him.
Thanks to Martin Luther originally, and Henry VIII (settled by Elizabeth I) in this country, I can be a Christian and not take a blind bit of notice of what the Pope says or does.
Henry VIII was not entirely anti-Europe though: he did once run to be President of the European Council (or a forerunner of it) in 1519:
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation..it will never be a problem for him.. just the parents and the bloody kids..He spreads despondency throughout the world..
Surely a little fame/infamy must accrue to you Mr Dodd for starting a post "Roger the Pope". What are we to make of the double space, and the lack of a comma!?
That is just a bit of wishful thinking by Richard North. It doesn't actually detract from the main thrust of the piece explaining how Norway in EFTA (as an example) has more influence over new legislation than the UK does inside the EU.
Yes, I see the mechanism in principle. It seems a fairly obscure one, but maybe he is right. If it's valid as an approach (and I don't know enough about it to say), then it's exactly the kind of thing I was hoping would be developed as a coherent alternative to EU membership.
FaPT Sean_F said: "If Ipsos MORI are correct, the can't be arsed favour Remain, heavily. Remain lead by 32% among those who say they are certain not to vote in the Referendum. The lead falls to 10% among those who say they are 9/10 likely to vote (the number that MORI uses for headline voting intention, and to 7% among those who are 10/10 likely to vote (the number MORI used for headline voting intention prior to the last election."
Why are Mori weighting in this way when we may see a lower turnout than the GE and the older more likely to vote people favour LEAVE? Are we heading to another polling failure because the weightings are not appropriate?
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
I think that's a bit harsh. The pope has tried hard to move the Catholic church on from a blanket condemnation of gay men and lesbians and towards accepting people into the church for all their perceived faults. One of his first pronouncements as pope was to say "who am I to judge gay people?". It's generally thought that he would like to go further than he has but that he does not have the necessary support within the Vatican to do so.
On condoms, the pope has only today advised that it was proper for women to use condoms to avoid Zika virus. This seems like a huge step to me.
How can you be harsh in condemning a man that accepts a role which says he is infallible. He's almost literally asserting that he has some hotline to a divine being. His position is based on a complete lie. Now that doesn't make the good things that he says wrong, but it does entirely diminish the degree to which we should doff our caps.
The whole point of having a Pope is to be God's representative on earth, a position still of importance to the more than 1 billion Catholics worldwide
Catholics are 8% in S.Carolina. In Nevada they are 24% (mostly Hispanics), but Nevada is not actually famous for being religious, and Hispanics where not likely to vote in the republican primaries anyway.
It might hurt Trump only in New England if Irish-Americans are a large share of republicans there. So in the primaries it might hurt Trump in geographical areas where he is strongest and in the GE where he is weakest.
Though I would keep an eye on Florida where cuban americans are a large share of both the GOP and the wider electorate to see if there is an impact there, if there is no impact there in the polling then Trump would emerge once again unharmed from institutional criticism.
All the southern states coming up are a fusion between the old Cavalier Tidewater Virginia Anglican culture (Robert E Lee) and Scots Irish Presbyterian frontier culture (Andrew Jackson) so I think the Pope criticising his popular immigration policies will only help him.
The Pope should stick to defending Christians in the ME and promoting Christian doctrine, immigration policy does not fall under his remit.
I would strongly recommend looking at this piece by Richard North on UNECE and how it works in comparison to the EU. This is the sort of international co-operation we should be looking at - by mutual consent rather than dictat.
Surely the problem, though, is in the last paragraph? It's not in the UK's power to make that happen.
That is just a bit of wishful thinking by Richard North. It doesn't actually detract from the main thrust of the piece explaining how Norway in EFTA (as an example) has more influence over new legislation than the UK does inside the EU.
Britain in EFTA is a totally different animal than the piddling countries there now. But I do not have a great issue with Britain being in EFTA/EEA. But I know its not much different than where we are now. As long as we were to stay out of Schengen. So I am not greatly excited about Leave. But to avoid the political EU that's were we might end one day.
Please do not tell Auntie-Hortence (nor the troupe-of-jockanese-clowns) but - Viz-land - I reflect a certain "Mr Gonads". Can some George please translate...?
June Sarpong's on Question Time, as is future Prime Minister Justine Greening.
This Sarpong character seems to be a real fruitcake:
Ms. Sarpong said for her it was the episode when the team headed to Alaska to investigate whether the High Frequency Auroral Research Program (H.A.A.R.P.) installation is just a communications project or actually a weapon that can change the weather, shoot down satellites or trigger global mind control.
She told the interviewer that having tried without success to speak with the Air Force and the Navy, she was convinced by the son of the designer that it can actually do the things people speculate it can do which “the powers that be deny… it can affect weather, it can”.
June Sarpong's on Question Time, as is future Prime Minister Justine Greening.
Sadly, Mr. Dancer, although officially on the fence I did a bit of research last night and it seems Greening has values-signalled Remain a couple of times.
I'm still hoping for a couple of brave late surprises (Penny Mordaunt is a win) but I'm afraid it is just that - hope.
You think Boris is just pissing about? (That's how it looks to me.)
Roger The Pope is a total tool..anyone who tells millions of very poor people to keep on producing more kids..to starve or be deprived for all of their miserable lives is not fit to be head of anything..let alone a powerful religious organisation
I had high hopes for this Pope. He was the first in a long time that I, as an atheist, thought really understood the problems of the world and had some answers as to how to deal with them. Unfortunately his stands against homosexuality and contraception have undermined any claim he could make to be in any way progressive.
I think that's a bit harsh. The pope has tried hard to move the Catholic church on from a blanket condemnation of gay men and lesbians and towards accepting people into the church for all their perceived faults. One of his first pronouncements as pope was to say "who am I to judge gay people?". It's generally thought that he would like to go further than he has but that he does not have the necessary support within the Vatican to do so.
On condoms, the pope has only today advised that it was proper for women to use condoms to avoid Zika virus. This seems like a huge step to me.
How can you be harsh in condemning a man that accepts a role which says he is infallible. He's almost literally asserting that he has some hotline to a divine being. His position is based on a complete lie. Now that doesn't make the good things that he says wrong, but it does entirely diminish the degree to which we should doff our caps.
The Pope does not say he is infallible, except in exceptionally-limited circumstances, which have obtained on only three occasions in the past 150 years...
No I don't have it the wrong way round. There is a huge rulebook for trading european shares. We helped to draft it and we follow it. It might, for example, say that shares of Deutsche Telecom can only be traded by people called Hans. It would be ridiculous, but if JP Morgan in London wanted to trade Deutsche Telecom, they would need to hire some bloke called Hans to do it. At present we have an input into such rules.
The single rulebook (optional for non eurozone members according to the draft) governs amongst other things SSM, SRM which, as non-euro members, we remain out of. CRD-IV governs capital requirements as you say and, like the Basel protocols, are sensible measures ensuring uniformity of risk across financial and credit institutions. Are you really so worried about the right level CARs to the extent that you would vote Leave for the BoE to set our own?
To say "we can regulate our own banks" is, as they say, not even wrong. Of course we govern our own banks and the EU accepts this.
As to your last statement, how long this will be the case if we vote to stay in remains to be seen. I think you are seriously underestimating the hostility towards the City from the EU.
And I understand that concern. It is a known unknown.
Look, @Richard_Tyndall asked for a positive reason to stay in the EU. I think that MiFID and its formulation is onesuch. It would be the infamous government by fax.
Is it enough to convince Leavers to stay? Of course not. But it is a concrete example, in an industry important to the UK, where staying in would go some way to avoiding the extra cost and almost certain disadvantages being imposed upon The City.
MiFiD is a disaster (my first job was working for Kay Swinburne's boss...let me just say I am not surprised).
There will be an attempt to take down the City soon after we vote to stay in. We've seen it in clearing, we've seen it in FFT, we've seen it in compensation policies that *increase* rather than reduce structural risk.
It will happen either way. Inside we have to accept the rules. Outside we can innovate around them. The Eurodollar market is significant in that respect. Fundamentally, though, there are few businesses that we want to be in that the EU can prevent us being in if we are independent.
Reading downthread about BBC not commissioning polls, their job is not to commission polls its to report the news.
The sooner the licence fee is removed the better
Don't they commission the exit poll. I don't mind them doing that. If they aren't asking leading questions I don't know what the problem is.
There's a anti-BBC group on here, guess they prefer Sky/Fox.
Biaised BBC BBC political editor Nick Robinson’s memoir of the General Election captures the shock when they realised the Tories were heading for victory. When the bombshell exit poll predicting a Cameron majority was shared with the presenters moments before going on air, swingometer king Jeremy Vine spluttered: ‘So Scotland will go independent and the BBC will be shut down.’
Comments
The French and Belgians saying no to any expression of the future democratic wishes of the British people.
The (infallible and non-democratically elected) Pope intervening in the US Presidential race.
These seem to be perhaps even stranger things than the already impossibly strange election of Corbyn, and the rise of Trump to me.
That would be me as well.
Why is everyone who opens their mouth on the EU arguing against their own position? Mind boggling.
Home ownership rises for first time in a decade as private renting falls.
That said, I can't imagine a second referendum bill getting through Parliament unless there was a very clear public demand for it, which seems implausible.
Norway is able to ensure that the interests of one of their vital industries are represented on the international stage.
Sam Wang of Princeton uses the 7-day median (or 3 latest) to predict the general election [perfectly last time], so I thought I'd use that.
Minimal differences at this stage for predicting the GOP race.
If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.
The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story - he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.
For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.
Donald J. Trump
Blimey !
June Sarpong's on Question Time, as is future Prime Minister Justine Greening.
Nevada 53-47
SC 59-30
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
If those figures hold up, I think she'll emerge from Super Tuesday with the nomination pretty much wrapped up.
The same goes for Codex Alimentarius.
Anyway we have seen how much 'influence' the UK has in the EU. The answer for anyone who is looking at it dispassionately is - bugger all.
I suspect if we then did get a second referendum, with what they are truly prepared to offer us, the EU would get a Winchester re-run style two-fingered salute from the Brits. Which would be humiliating on an epic scale - for both Brussels and Cameron.
So can we. Being a member of the EU does not prevent us lobbying and influencing the WTO and its committees. Whilst the EU adopts a common position for all its members in nearly all cases, we are full members of the WTO in our own right, and can speak in committees and sponsor papers.
The question is: would we have more influence if we did not agree a common position with our EU friends first? On the one hand we represent a much smaller proportion of world trade than the EU does, on the other hand we'd be able to present a different view from our EU friends. Not obvious which is more influential.
...and all the press coverage, good, bad and indifferent...
...is the fact that these negotiations aimed low, will probably achieve their aim, and will be portrayed as a humungously stonking victory for Cam.
That almost alone is likely to swing it to REMAIN.
I thought it was quite witty.
That's quite a large minority, the question is how many of them take enough notice of what the Pope says to affect their vote.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/700331286586597376
Oh yes, they are landlocked.
Remain could use it as being IN with protection, I think that would work better
Not their target customer then.
(The message is though incorrect. It is undoubtedly more risky to Leave. Risk isn't always bad though.)
Strongest Remain argument I've seen to date.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualites/2016/02/17/01001-20160217QCMWWW00134-souhaitez-vous-que-la-grande-bretagne-reste-dans-l-union-europeenne.php
The last time we did it was called the Great Schism.
On a traditional Catholic view the Pope is the Vicar of Christ on Earth and, if Trump were a Catholic, could excommunicate him. On that view he can certainly opine as to his status.
On the Protestant view a person's faith is between them and God and such things as whether they are saved are unknowable to anyone else. As that way of thinking is more familiar to me it seems presumptuous and even faintly blasphemous for the Pope to say that Trump is not a Christian at all. However, if what he actually said was that Trump was proposing to do unChristian things - that he was behaving like a bad Christian in other words - that would be unexceptional (and rather boring).
I would strongly recommend looking at this piece by Richard North on UNECE and how it works in comparison to the EU. This is the sort of international co-operation we should be looking at - by mutual consent rather than dictat.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85512
I've no idea what the answer might be, but what percentage of American Catholics disapprove of contraception? I think that'd be a decent guide to how much impact the Pope might have.
will never be a problem for him.. just the parents and the bloody kids..He spreads despondency throughout the world..
Catholics are 8% in S.Carolina.
In Nevada they are 24% (mostly Hispanics), but Nevada is not actually famous for being religious, and Hispanics where not likely to vote in the republican primaries anyway.
It might hurt Trump only in New England if Irish-Americans are a large share of republicans there.
So in the primaries it might hurt Trump in geographical areas where he is strongest and in the GE where he is weakest.
Though I would keep an eye on Florida where cuban americans are a large share of both the GOP and the wider electorate to see if there is an impact there, if there is no impact there in the polling then Trump would emerge once again unharmed from institutional criticism.
Surely the problem, though, is in the last paragraph? It's not in the UK's power to make that happen.
Edited the link as song is very NSFW.
/youtu.be/pB958pxquj0
I am Catholic, and thought that song got across well the anger at the Church's reaction to the paedophile scandal. Of course it was a reference to the previous Pontiff
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35607597
You have embarrassed yourself time and time again with your Tory fanaticism. I remember the entire day you spent arguing that we did not pay the EU's bill of £1.7bn in full. Unless you have knighthood in the pipeline your fanaticism is kind of sad.
I'm still hoping for a couple of brave late surprises (Penny Mordaunt is a win) but I'm afraid it is just that - hope.
On condoms, the pope has only today advised that it was proper for women to use condoms to avoid Zika virus. This seems like a huge step to me.
High quality line-up tonight then...
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/02/13/the-pope-and-head-of-the-russian-orthodox-church-release-statement-against-gay-marriage/
All but Rick Santorum-ites are usually democrats, and Santorum endorsed Rubio after Iowa already.
It's not the first time that the Pope has chosen sides in american politics:
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/21/politics/pope-francis-congress-republicans-politics/
As a result conservatives are straining on their leash:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-pope-francis-popularity-us-120457
"Pope Francis' approval rating nosedives among conservatives"
Its an episode of the old story "Which is more powerful, the Church or the Party?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_election#Election_of_1519
"If Ipsos MORI are correct, the can't be arsed favour Remain, heavily. Remain lead by 32% among those who say they are certain not to vote in the Referendum. The lead falls to 10% among those who say they are 9/10 likely to vote (the number that MORI uses for headline voting intention, and to 7% among those who are 10/10 likely to vote (the number MORI used for headline voting intention prior to the last election."
Why are Mori weighting in this way when we may see a lower turnout than the GE and the older more likely to vote people favour LEAVE? Are we heading to another polling failure because the weightings are not appropriate?
The Pope should stick to defending Christians in the ME and promoting Christian doctrine, immigration policy does not fall under his remit.
There will be an attempt to take down the City soon after we vote to stay in. We've seen it in clearing, we've seen it in FFT, we've seen it in compensation policies that *increase* rather than reduce structural risk.
It will happen either way. Inside we have to accept the rules. Outside we can innovate around them. The Eurodollar market is significant in that respect. Fundamentally, though, there are few businesses that we want to be in that the EU can prevent us being in if we are independent.
It's an irregular noun.
I am an original thinker.
You have eccentric views.
She is a fruitcake.
BBC political editor Nick Robinson’s memoir of the General Election captures the shock when they realised the Tories were heading for victory. When the bombshell exit poll predicting a Cameron majority was shared with the presenters moments before going on air, swingometer king Jeremy Vine spluttered: ‘So Scotland will go independent and the BBC will be shut down.’