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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,821
    edited February 2016

    New national poll taken concurrently with the surprising NBC one which showed Cruz overtaking Trump. This one shows nothing much changing: Trump 35, Cruz 18, Rubio 12, Kasich 11, everyone else nowhere.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

    Cameron now getting more dissatisfied ratings than either Corbyn or Farage, I see. What is the last box (showing Big Ben) a measurement of - Parliament in general?

    I think Big Ben is "The Government" and iirc it's been on their monthly reports for a while.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    taffys said:

    Alternatively it could rise. Or it may stay the same. Who the f8ck knows??

    Believe me (or better still, Goldman Sachs), it will fall, and quite sharply, on a Leave result.

    That's against the dollar. Against the Euro, it's less clear, given that the Eurozone would also be badly hit by the uncertainty of what Brexit would mean.

    Of course, this is talking short-to-medium term. Once any new settlement is sorted - which will take at least two years - there's no particular reason to suppose we'd end up with a different sterling valuation to that which we would have had if we stay in.
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    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
    There is no Revelations.

    There is however a Book of Revelation.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Looks like Kenyan Track and Field are out the Olympics....
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35602894

    Odds on David Rushida finding a way to compete for someone else, Bahrain or Qatar maybe?
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    Why TSE? You have known the choices from the very start as has everyone posting on here. This is hardly news, at least for those of us following the debate, and neither is it the chosen option for many of us.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,867
    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
    More realistically, Britain post-Brexit would probably resemble the USA in the Running Man.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA'

    Total garbage. Again though note the proxy war element of this - cuddly middle England organisations pressed into service to push pro-EU propaganda.

    National Trust next, perhaps? Stately homes and footpaths to close because of Brexit?
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    Tesco to sell straight croissants.

    Is this a hedge against Leave or Remain?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,133

    I've asked Shadsy to add Penny M to the next Tory leader market.

    Surely Shadsy must watch this speech, realise she has no chance whatsoever - and price her odds accordingly.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11263685/Watch-Penny-Mordaunts-cock-speech-to-Parliament.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    edited February 2016
    If oil was at $0/£, then petrol in this country would cost ~ 75.5p.

    Duty 57.95 (Fixed I think)
    Retailer 5
    VAT on duty & retailer 12.59

    Seeing as we're at round about a round £1/litre now, the fuel element is 20.4p ex VAT (24.5p inc VAT)

    So if Sterling drops 20%, then we're looking at a 20% increase in the fuel element to 24.5p

    The VAT element takes it to 29.4p, a 4.9p increase.

    So the AA's figures based off a 20% fall in Sterling mean a 4.9% theoretical increase (All else being equal)

    So quarter any changes in sterling to a fuel price rise/fall as a rough rule of thumb.

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I see union @unisontweets are advertising on the TV. Never seen that before. It was during #JeremyKyle so seems rather pointless.
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    taffys said:

    Alternatively it could rise. Or it may stay the same. Who the f8ck knows??

    Believe me (or better still, Goldman Sachs), it will fall, and quite sharply, on a Leave result.

    That's against the dollar. Against the Euro, it's less clear, given that the Eurozone would also be badly hit by the uncertainty of what Brexit would mean.

    Of course, this is talking short-to-medium term. Once any new settlement is sorted - which will take at least two years - there's no particular reason to suppose we'd end up with a different sterling valuation to that which we would have had if we stay in.
    The alternative will not necessarily take at least 2 years. 2 years is the maximum standard time allowed under Article 50 with the options of extensions if necessary. But for example if the move was to EFTA and the EEA there is no need to wait 2 years for this to be decided and enacted.
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    Why TSE? You have known the choices from the very start as has everyone posting on here. This is hardly news, at least for those of us following the debate, and neither is it the chosen option for many of us.
    I misread/misunderstood the article.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,133

    Tesco to sell straight croissants.

    Is this a hedge against Leave or Remain?

    You can only buy gay croissants up to now?
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    Tesco to sell straight croissants.

    Is this a hedge against Leave or Remain?

    You can only buy gay croissants up to now?
    LOL.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    runnymede said:

    'Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA'

    Total garbage. Again though note the proxy war element of this - cuddly middle England organisations pressed into service to push pro-EU propaganda.

    National Trust next, perhaps? Stately homes and footpaths to close because of Brexit?


    If Remain wins, on the back of all this nonsense, it will leave the whole issue unsettled.

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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016
    deleted
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    I've asked Shadsy to add Penny M to the next Tory leader market.

    Surely Shadsy must watch this speech, realise she has no chance whatsoever - and price her odds accordingly.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11263685/Watch-Penny-Mordaunts-cock-speech-to-Parliament.html
    Small beer when the current Tory leader is supposed to have stuck his dangly bits in a dead pig's mouth.

    Thinking about it, perhaps Yvette Cooper could be PM/Labour leader after all.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    edited February 2016
    Biggest bookie in the country lays 15k at 4/1 something they can back bigger on Betfair

    Sad thats considered worthy of praise... Shows the bookmaking world for what it is
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,133
    Sandpit said:

    Looks like Kenyan Track and Field are out the Olympics....
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35602894

    Odds on David Rushida finding a way to compete for someone else, Bahrain or Qatar maybe?
    There's going to be a lot of family trees being studied, both in Kenya and Russia....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    SoMuchGuardian
    #IFeelLeftOutNowYouAreNotRacist #PleaseLetMeBeTheVictimAgain #GoodLord https://t.co/gLOsEc9ifn
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389

    Another state school educated Tory coming out for Leave.

    As hordes of state-school educated Tory voters, members and supporters will also do.

    Hey, have the guys with the sense of the entitlement, educated as boarders at Eton and other Clarendon schools, lost their skills of leadership? Better blame the ungrateful lower downs, eh?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    taffys said:

    Alternatively it could rise. Or it may stay the same. Who the f8ck knows??

    Believe me (or better still, Goldman Sachs), it will fall, and quite sharply, on a Leave result.

    That's against the dollar. Against the Euro, it's less clear, given that the Eurozone would also be badly hit by the uncertainty of what Brexit would mean.

    Of course, this is talking short-to-medium term. Once any new settlement is sorted - which will take at least two years - there's no particular reason to suppose we'd end up with a different sterling valuation to that which we would have had if we stay in.
    The alternative will not necessarily take at least 2 years. 2 years is the maximum standard time allowed under Article 50 with the options of extensions if necessary. But for example if the move was to EFTA and the EEA there is no need to wait 2 years for this to be decided and enacted.
    There would need to be legislation drafted and enacted, but still, two years should be easily achievable, and it might be possible to do it in 18 months
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    I'm Buster Gonad :wink:

    2nd after being logged out!

    But after finding out that so many of us were French last night, the burning question is "which Viz character are you (gents)?"


    http://viz.co.uk/games-fun/viz-quiz-which-viz-character-are-you-gents/

    I am Roger Mellie, so good night and bollocks!

    me too - now you can claim to have cojones.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    edited February 2016
    John_N said:

    deleted

    Jacob Rees Mogg, Eton and Owen Patterson, Radley and Dan Hannan, Marlborough are for Leave Comp Educated Greg Clark, Stephen Crabb and Liz Truss for Remain alongside ex coalminer Patrick Mcloughlin
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    Are we now in the phase that Lansley predicted of having a row with Europe? If yes, how long do we wait for the announcement of a victory?
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    The alternative will not necessarily take at least 2 years. 2 years is the maximum standard time allowed under Article 50 with the options of extensions if necessary. But for example if the move was to EFTA and the EEA there is no need to wait 2 years for this to be decided and enacted.

    There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of it being agreed much before the 2-year deadline, if indeed that deadline is attainable. It's much more likely that there will need to be an extension to the deadline.

    For a start, we don't actually know what we want yet. You need to factor in a few months to debate that.

    Then there is the horrendously complicated set of negotations with the 27 other EU countries, the three EEA countries, and the EU institutions. It's slightly unclear whether the EU bit of could be done by QMV, but I think unanimous consent is probably going to be required.

    Then there's the legal drafting, and the knock-on effect to dozens, maybe hundreds, of other international agreements.

    This ain't gonna be quick, whatever deal we go for.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,133

    I've asked Shadsy to add Penny M to the next Tory leader market.

    Surely Shadsy must watch this speech, realise she has no chance whatsoever - and price her odds accordingly.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11263685/Watch-Penny-Mordaunts-cock-speech-to-Parliament.html
    Small beer when the current Tory leader is supposed to have stuck his dangly bits in a dead pig's mouth.

    Thinking about it, perhaps Yvette Cooper could be PM/Labour leader after all.
    Damn it, just when I thought that imagery was out of my head....
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35605055
    useful.
    "But if the negotiations come unstuck in Brussels this week, can Mr Cameron still get his referendum by June?
    The short answer is yes. "
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Pathetic justification

    This quote is from the editor of the @HuffPostUK explaining why they don't pay writers! https://t.co/uoQlCcH3Oq
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    I see union @unisontweets are advertising on the TV. Never seen that before. It was during #JeremyKyle so seems rather pointless.

    LOL
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    runnymede said:

    'Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA'

    Total garbage. Again though note the proxy war element of this - cuddly middle England organisations pressed into service to push pro-EU propaganda.

    National Trust next, perhaps? Stately homes and footpaths to close because of Brexit?

    Oh dear - you're not paranoid, you know the AA are out to get you.
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    Wanderer said:

    I feel a Penny Mordurant as next Tory leader thread coming this weekend.

    Needs to ditch the homeopathy.
    Absolutely, everybody who wishes to make decisions on our behalf should have some scientific knowledge and should steer clear of mumbo jumbo.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958

    The alternative will not necessarily take at least 2 years. 2 years is the maximum standard time allowed under Article 50 with the options of extensions if necessary. But for example if the move was to EFTA and the EEA there is no need to wait 2 years for this to be decided and enacted.

    There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of it being agreed much before the 2-year deadline, if indeed that deadline is attainable. It's much more likely that there will need to be an extension to the deadline.

    For a start, we don't actually know what we want yet. You need to factor in a few months to debate that.

    Then there is the horrendously complicated set of negotations with the 27 other EU countries, the three EEA countries, and the EU institutions. It's slightly unclear whether the EU bit of could be done by QMV, but I think unanimous consent is probably going to be required.

    Then there's the legal drafting, and the knock-on effect to dozens, maybe hundreds, of other international agreements.

    This ain't gonna be quick, whatever deal we go for.
    Well Dave did proimise a "renegotiation".
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2016

    Pathetic justification

    This quote is from the editor of the @HuffPostUK explaining why they don't pay writers! https://t.co/uoQlCcH3Oq

    Interesting justification. I presume none of the editors get paid either, as we wouldn't like to think they are tainted?
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    I've asked Shadsy to add Penny M to the next Tory leader market.

    Surely Shadsy must watch this speech, realise she has no chance whatsoever - and price her odds accordingly.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11263685/Watch-Penny-Mordaunts-cock-speech-to-Parliament.html
    Small beer when the current Tory leader is supposed to have stuck his dangly bits in a dead pig's mouth.

    Thinking about it, perhaps Yvette Cooper could be PM/Labour leader after all.
    Damn it, just when I thought that imagery was out of my head....
    This image should help you deal with the unfortunate imagery in your head

    http://thebackbencher.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ed-balls.jpg
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol:
    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    I hink a 20% fall is on the high end of estimates, much as I wish it would so - the US has some potential black swan threats to it's own currency (Cruz/Sanders presidency) that we can't completely rule out. I'd expect a 5 - 10% fall against the dollar and perhaps a 0 - 5% fall against the Euro personally.
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    Pulpstar said:

    I hink a 20% fall is on the high end of estimates, much as I wish it would so - the US has some potential black swan threats to it's own currency (Cruz/Sanders presidency) that we can't completely rule out. I'd expect a 5 - 10% fall against the dollar and perhaps a 0 - 5% fall against the Euro personally.

    Yeah, sounds about right. To be fair, the 20% was Goldman's upper limit IIRC.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
    Crude might go up, crude might go down.

    Who knows ?

    It's totally unaffected by Brexit.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    I've asked Shadsy to add Penny M to the next Tory leader market.

    She's unlikely to be *next* Tory leader, but must be a possible in the future. Great personality, and a wicked sense of humour as we have seen with both the Loyal Address and the adjournment debate on poultry farming following her lost bet at the Officers' dinner.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Pulpstar said:

    I hink a 20% fall is on the high end of estimates, much as I wish it would so - the US has some potential black swan threats to it's own currency (Cruz/Sanders presidency) that we can't completely rule out. I'd expect a 5 - 10% fall against the dollar and perhaps a 0 - 5% fall against the Euro personally.

    It's already fallen substantially against both currencies since the autumn. That could continue and accelerate - often the initial effects are quite extreme when currencies fluctuate.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389

    This is why I love Penny Mordurant.

    Especially the bit 1:50 onwards.

    http://youtu.be/MGqikf5Neas

    She should change her first name to "Ha'penny"!

    Maybe if the Navy instructors had been expecting a "Ha'penny", they might have remembered that some people exist who don't carry the "correct" kit.

    Admittedly they might have had to think outside their favoured direction of approach.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    :lol:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
    '' Remain theologists find fifth Horseman 'Brexit' in ancient texts shock''.

    '' Beware Ides of Brexit, not March, Caesar actually told, according to Remain Scholar...''
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
    Crude might go up, crude might go down.

    Who knows ?

    It's totally unaffected by Brexit.
    In people's minds the association could easily be made - especially as a large fall in sterling would put up a lot of other prices.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    ...and chatterers may soon finally wake up to the possibility that Cameron will back LEAVE.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I hink a 20% fall is on the high end of estimates, much as I wish it would so - the US has some potential black swan threats to it's own currency (Cruz/Sanders presidency) that we can't completely rule out. I'd expect a 5 - 10% fall against the dollar and perhaps a 0 - 5% fall against the Euro personally.

    It's already fallen substantially against both currencies since the autumn. That could continue and accelerate - often the initial effects are quite extreme when currencies fluctuate.
    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    John_N said:

    ...and chatterers may soon finally wake up to the possibility that Cameron will back LEAVE.
    I don't know why anyone is even entertaining this idea. It will never happen
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Sandpit said:

    Looks like Kenyan Track and Field are out the Olympics....
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35602894

    Odds on David Rushida finding a way to compete for someone else, Bahrain or Qatar maybe?
    There's going to be a lot of family trees being studied, both in Kenya and Russia....
    Didn't the GB team spend the winter training in Kenya? Maybe we can give a couple of their athletes British citizenship as a thank you?
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/01/currencies

    (and hundreds of other articles: just Google 'fall sterling brexit' and you'll get the idea).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
    Crude might go up, crude might go down.

    Who knows ?

    It's totally unaffected by Brexit.
    In people's minds the association could easily be made - especially as a large fall in sterling would put up a lot of other prices.
    Quite a relief its dropped from 1.4 to the €, you must agree.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958

    tlg86 said:

    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/01/currencies

    (and hundreds of other articles: just Google 'fall sterling brexit' and you'll get the idea).
    Do you think it will rise with a "Remain" vote ?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    Get off Twitter and get on with it then, you look like a twat
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    Who's the Whore of Babylon here?!

    Someone who pretends to advocate one side, whilst working for the other.
    taffys said:

    :lol:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
    '' Remain theologists find fifth Horseman 'Brexit' in ancient texts shock''.

    '' Beware Ides of Brexit, not March, Caesar actually told, according to Remain Scholar...''
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,133
    taffys said:

    :lol:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
    '' Remain theologists find fifth Horseman 'Brexit' in ancient texts shock''.

    '' Beware Ides of Brexit, not March, Caesar actually told, according to Remain Scholar...''
    The Latin name for the Black Death bacterium? Brexitus brexitus.....
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    I'm Buster Gonad :wink:

    2nd after being logged out!

    But after finding out that so many of us were French last night, the burning question is "which Viz character are you (gents)?"


    http://viz.co.uk/games-fun/viz-quiz-which-viz-character-are-you-gents/

    I am Roger Mellie, so good night and bollocks!

    me too - now you can claim to have cojones.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    MaxPB said:

    John_N said:

    ...and chatterers may soon finally wake up to the possibility that Cameron will back LEAVE.
    I don't know why anyone is even entertaining this idea. It will never happen
    Anyone who is backing "Leave" with their money on that basis is poorhouse bound.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Do you think it will rise with a "Remain" vote ?

    Yes.

    It will probably rise slightly if there's a deal this week.
  • Options

    The Latin name for the Black Death bacterium? Brexitus brexitus.....

    LOL!
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I hink a 20% fall is on the high end of estimates, much as I wish it would so - the US has some potential black swan threats to it's own currency (Cruz/Sanders presidency) that we can't completely rule out. I'd expect a 5 - 10% fall against the dollar and perhaps a 0 - 5% fall against the Euro personally.

    It's already fallen substantially against both currencies since the autumn. That could continue and accelerate - often the initial effects are quite extreme when currencies fluctuate.
    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.
    Most of the currency commentators consider the uncertainty to be one of the factors.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Completely off-topic.

    You can get a job making cat videos:

    Wired Sussex Job

    How far the internet has come...

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
    Crude might go up, crude might go down.

    Who knows ?

    It's totally unaffected by Brexit.
    In people's minds the association could easily be made - especially as a large fall in sterling would put up a lot of other prices.
    Quite a relief its dropped from 1.4 to the €, you must agree.
    Lol - I live in Spain with a UK pension. So no. :) Most of our visitors tend to like a high exchange rate.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2016
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm really amused by this meme. It's just perfect.

    taffys said:

    :lol:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
    Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-

    "Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
    And then there's the passage on ''Brexitus'' in Revelations....
    '' Remain theologists find fifth Horseman 'Brexit' in ancient texts shock''.

    '' Beware Ides of Brexit, not March, Caesar actually told, according to Remain Scholar...''
    The Latin name for the Black Death bacterium? Brexitus brexitus.....
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/01/currencies

    (and hundreds of other articles: just Google 'fall sterling brexit' and you'll get the idea).
    Do you think it will rise with a "Remain" vote ?
    Currency markets like certainty so probably yes, all other things being equal.
  • Options
    Will Straw of the Leave campaign seems to be deliberately muddying the difference between access to the single market and membership of the single market. A 'next generation' trade deal with EU would give UK access but not membership. It would be equivalent to what Canada has with NAFTA.
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    Complaining that we would not be in the room is bogus criticism as Will Straw is silent about the fact we would not be involved in Eurozone summits when they decide common position without us.
  • Options
    Here's a useful quick summary of what various (non-UK) banks and the ratings agencies think about the economic effect of a Leave vote:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-factbox-idUKKCN0VO0UF
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/01/currencies

    (and hundreds of other articles: just Google 'fall sterling brexit' and you'll get the idea).
    Do you think it will rise with a "Remain" vote ?
    Currency markets like certainty so probably yes, all other things being equal.
    OK - that's pretty much made up my mind. I simply can't afford to vote "Remain".
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2016
    One for every bodies diary...

    Momentum, the movement run for the people by the people, are launching a new series of lectures titled “People’s Philosophy, Politics and Economics”.

    Of course not, the first event will be held in a community centre in Hackney. Headlining are failed Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and Mufti Abdur-Rahman Ibn Yusuf Mangera, an imam who previously warned of the dangers of capitalism:

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/18/momentum-launching-peoples-ppe/
  • Options
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-idUSMTZSAPEC2IPVDVGZ

    Trump up into the 40s with Ipsos Reuters, Cruz 17, Rubio 10 and bizarrely 10 percent for Carson. Bush is 8.

    Reuters-Ipsos has an ongoing daily tracking poll that allows users to create their own cross tabs.

    http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2

    Trump’s strongest showing among self-identified Republicans is in New England, followed by the mid-Atlantic and then the Southeast. Trump is really crushing it in states like Massachusetts. Although it is probably important to distinguish between total population support, and support among people who are likely to ultimately vote for the Republican nominee.

    There is also a huge East-West divide. In the Mountain West and West Coast, Trump’s lead over Cruz is in the single digits in the R-I poll. In New England, by contrast, it’s nearly 40 points, with Trump in first at 48% and Cruz at a very distant second at under 10%.
  • Options

    Here's a useful quick summary of what various (non-UK) banks and the ratings agencies think about the economic effect of a Leave vote:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-factbox-idUKKCN0VO0UF

    If we limited migration of course we would have lower GDP. What matters for wellbeing of British citizens is GDP per capita, but banks don't really care about that.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Are you suggesting it's fallen because of the speculation over our membership of the EU? I'd point out that it's fallen in spite of us being in the EU.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/01/currencies

    (and hundreds of other articles: just Google 'fall sterling brexit' and you'll get the idea).
    Do you think it will rise with a "Remain" vote ?
    Currency markets like certainty so probably yes, all other things being equal.
    OK - that's pretty much made up my mind. I simply can't afford to vote "Remain".
    I strongly support people voting on the basis of self-interest. Glad to have helped you. :)
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016

    If we limited migration of course we would have lower GDP. What matters for wellbeing of British citizens is GDP per capita, but banks don't really care about that.

    Sure, if voters want to make that trade-off, that's democracy. As long as they are not conned into thinking there is no downside, it's fine.

    However, the link I gave is useful because it's gives the independent views of informed observers who have no axe to grind. Doesn't guarantee they are right, of course.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958

    If we limited migration of course we would have lower GDP. What matters for wellbeing of British citizens is GDP per capita, but banks don't really care about that.

    Sure, if voters want to make that trade-off, that's democracy. As long as they are not conned into thinking there is no downside, it's fine.

    However, the link I gave is useful because it's gives the independent views of informed observers who have no axe to grind. Doesn't guarantee they are right, of course.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b168d094-bfb1-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html#axzz40WmCrNqr
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,501
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_N said:

    ...and chatterers may soon finally wake up to the possibility that Cameron will back LEAVE.
    I don't know why anyone is even entertaining this idea. It will never happen
    Anyone who is backing "Leave" with their money on that basis is poorhouse bound.
    Can't believe there's anyone on earth still entertaining this notion.

  • Options
    Conservative ministers are rethinking their plans to slash funding for opposition parties in a way that could ease the pain for Labour but deal a blow to smaller parties such as Ukip and the Greens.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/18/conservatives-to-rebalance-cuts-to-opposition-party-funding?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Here's a useful quick summary of what various (non-UK) banks and the ratings agencies think about the economic effect of a Leave vote:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-factbox-idUKKCN0VO0UF

    If we limited migration of course we would have lower GDP. What matters for wellbeing of British citizens is GDP per capita, but banks don't really care about that.
    Lol - you mean if we send all the existing ones home those left would be as rich as Croesus :)
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ha! A must tweet.


    Completely off-topic.

    You can get a job making cat videos:

    Wired Sussex Job

    How far the internet has come...

  • Options

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A fall of 20% in Sterling would be welcomed by exporters among others of course...and implied exchange rates vs € and $ would hardly be unprecedented.

    Still waiting for a convincing positive reason to Remain. (As opposed to a dubiously speculative scare-story based one I mean)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
    Crude might go up, crude might go down.

    Who knows ?

    It's totally unaffected by Brexit.
    In people's minds the association could easily be made - especially as a large fall in sterling would put up a lot of other prices.
    Quite a relief its dropped from 1.4 to the €, you must agree.
    Lol - I live in Spain with a UK pension. So no. :) Most of our visitors tend to like a high exchange rate.
    I earn mostly in dollars and pay my mortgage in Sterling, so I prefer that rate high from a British perspective. I admit I'm in the minority there.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I adore the irony of all political agendas called People's Something.

    They never are.

    One for every bodies diary...

    Momentum, the movement run for the people by the people, are launching a new series of lectures titled “People’s Philosophy, Politics and Economics”.

    Of course not, the first event will be held in a community centre in Hackney. Headlining are failed Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and Mufti Abdur-Rahman Ibn Yusuf Mangera, an imam who previously warned of the dangers of capitalism:

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/18/momentum-launching-peoples-ppe/

  • Options
    As I said on the previous thread there are already many of us who feel UKIP's usefulness passed once the election results were in. They could perhaps have reformed themselves into a more Libertarian party but not under Farage who, for all his Libertarian leanings, was far to interested in pursuing a populist agenda to further his own political career.
  • Options

    Still waiting for a convincing positive reason to Remain. (As opposed to a dubiously speculative scare-story based one I mean)

    The positive reason which has convinced me is that it looks better than the alternatives. As simple as that. No scare stories involved either way.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Paul Kirby
    US primaries. A reminder that the big evangelical battles are coming.
    @washingtonpost chart https://t.co/8lsCLa1hUx
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    edited February 2016

    Still waiting for a convincing positive reason to Remain. (As opposed to a dubiously speculative scare-story based one I mean)

    The positive reason which has convinced me is that it looks better than the alternatives. As simple as that. No scare stories involved either way.
    LOL. You are one of those perpetrating the scare stories. You have failed to make any positive case for EU membership at all
  • Options

    Still waiting for a convincing positive reason to Remain. (As opposed to a dubiously speculative scare-story based one I mean)

    The positive reason which has convinced me is that it looks better than the alternatives. As simple as that. No scare stories involved either way.
    LOL. You are one of those perpetrating the scare stories.
    Really? What scare stories have I perpetuated?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2016
    Virtually every EU country makes a profit out of a tariff-free trade deal with the UK presently. It's difficult to imagine the bosses at BMW etc beating Frau Merkel's door down to put a stop to it.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Petrol prices could soar by 19p a litre if we vote to leave to the EU, according to the AA

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241

    That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
    What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?

    It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
    A big fall in sterling would push petrol and a lot of other prices higher.
    See my working, any effect on fuel prices is quartered. 5% increase in petrol for 20% decrease in sterling.
    So I was correct. Of course you also assume crude remains as low as now.
    Crude might go up, crude might go down.

    Who knows ?

    It's totally unaffected by Brexit.
    The reduction in flights to Brussels and Strasbourg by various MEPs and civil servants would reduce the demand for oil...
  • Options

    I adore the irony of all political agendas called People's Something.

    They never are.

    One for every bodies diary...

    Momentum, the movement run for the people by the people, are launching a new series of lectures titled “People’s Philosophy, Politics and Economics”.

    Of course not, the first event will be held in a community centre in Hackney. Headlining are failed Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and Mufti Abdur-Rahman Ibn Yusuf Mangera, an imam who previously warned of the dangers of capitalism:

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/18/momentum-launching-peoples-ppe/

    What are you talking about...the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ;-)
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    edited February 2016

    Still waiting for a convincing positive reason to Remain. (As opposed to a dubiously speculative scare-story based one I mean)

    The positive reason which has convinced me is that it looks better than the alternatives. As simple as that. No scare stories involved either way.
    LOL. You are one of those perpetrating the scare stories.
    Really? What scare stories have I perpetuated?
    The idea that the City will suffer if we leave. The idea that trade will suffer if we leave. The idea that our GDP will drop and we will see a Sterling crash.

    The whole basis of your argument has been negative. I don't recall you ever having made a single positive case for remaining in the EU.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    yeah but your cheap bedwetting pantywaist who has no confidence in this great nation and its people.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    chestnut said:

    Virtually every EU country makes a profit out of a tariff-free trade deal with the UK presently. It's difficult to imagine the bosses at BMW etc beating Frau Merkel's door down to put a stop to it.
    As I may have said before, the EU should be paying us to be in, not the other way round. They sell us many more BMWs than we sell them Jaguars.
This discussion has been closed.