Afternoon all. Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron.
There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.
The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
The challenge for the LDs is to find 1-2 issues that people care about, where the LDs are on the right side of public opinion and where they are differentiated from all the other parties.
Afternoon all. Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron.
There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.
The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
The challenge for the LDs is to find 1-2 issues that people care about, where the LDs are on the right side of public opinion and where they are differentiated from all the other parties.
Hence the recent kite being flown about cannabis, plenty of time to ditch it in a year or two if it looks like its becoming an embarrassment. That won't be enough though. What they really need to do is actual become LIBERAL, under Clegg they would much more accurately be called The Statists. Cannabis is a start, but a strong defence of free speech, a firm stand against un-needed snooping powers etc might be the way to go.
I have a feeling a Boris sized hole could be filled quite soon for leave if he doesn't get enough from that nice Mr Cameron.
It does raise a fascinating question: if Boris were to jump to Leave - can all the other Tory leadership contenders afford to see him there on his own, soaking up all the love? Or do some of them have to jump to Leave too?
As soon as any health secretary tries to do something and thus affect one interest group or another then he becomes unpopular. Its typical and its pathetic of the public and media alike.
I have a feeling a Boris sized hole could be filled quite soon for leave if he doesn't get enough from that nice Mr Cameron.
It does raise a fascinating question: if Boris were to jump to Leave - can all the other Tory leadership contenders afford to see him there on his own, soaking up all the love? Or do some of them have to jump to Leave too?
Of the "big 3"
Well George is firmly tied to the remain mast. Not sure about May... I think she's got on the remain horse and it's rode off though.
Mr. Mark, Boris would be a liability more than an asset. He's on the record stating we should vote to leave, then stay in.
Like him or not, and I'm no fan of Mr Johnson - he is quite popular. He'd for sure be an asset.
Even if he leads Leave and Remain wins, Boris could almost get away with it - saying that there were clearly two sides to the argument, the argument for Leave was not getting the coverage he felt the country deserved, and in the interests of democracy blah blah blah. I suspect most wouldn't hold it against him - outside Downing Street, that is.
Afternoon all. Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron.
There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.
The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
The challenge for the LDs is to find 1-2 issues that people care about, where the LDs are on the right side of public opinion and where they are differentiated from all the other parties.
We haven’t recently had a bye-election in Llareggub Central though. And agree that another real LIBERAL policy stand would be good. Can’t really argue that the EU represents Free Tade, though!
Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.
I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?
Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.
Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
It would be kind of funny if Cameron emerged, pale and trembling at six in the morning. Not very good for Remain mind you.
Seriously, you're no doubt right about the pork. That can be served in many ways, of course.
As Cameron allegedly knows....
I don't think I'll ever do a weirder thread than the one I did about Cameron supposedly sticking his bits into a dead pig's mouth.
Although we live in hope.....
Although threads that involve me writing 'Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn' still feel pretty weird to me
Just imagine how you'll feel writing about President Trump !
That thought fills me to the brim with girlish glee
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Afternoon all. Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron.
There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.
The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
The challenge for the LDs is to find 1-2 issues that people care about, where the LDs are on the right side of public opinion and where they are differentiated from all the other parties.
I think the mistake they're making is trying to be on the right side of public opinion. They've sunk so low in the polls that they simply need to find a niche that will attract *some* support. It doesn't matter if 80-85% wholeheartedly agree providing that quite a lot of the other 15-20% rate it as important and are prepared to switch vote over it. Obviously, they need to keep what remains of their existing support on board as well but they simply can't play the same game they did when they were at 23% in the polls. They're not a major party any more.
On topic: If Jeremy Hunt manages to introduce the new contract without big disruption, his ratings (especially amongst party members) could rapidly switch to quite favourable. In addition the contest is probably two years away, depending on what happens in EURef.
So don't throw away those 66/1 betting slips quite yet!
I have just added an 80/1 slip on Gove. Last Parliament's Hunt
There are very few Heineken leaders who reach parts others cannot reach. Assuming Cameron does not change his mind then the tory membership needs to be very sober when it gets to a decision. Getting all worked up about the EU in the way that some hysterics on here are praying that they do is hardlybthe way to stumble onto a good choice.
The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.
As I mentioned before and I know it's not her fault, but it's difficult to imagine a PM or indeed a LOTO with the name Heidi ...... the newspapers would have a field day!
Afternoon all. Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron.
There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.
The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
The challenge for the LDs is to find 1-2 issues that people care about, where the LDs are on the right side of public opinion and where they are differentiated from all the other parties.
Hence the recent kite being flown about cannabis, plenty of time to ditch it in a year or two if it looks like its becoming an embarrassment. That won't be enough though. What they really need to do is actual become LIBERAL, under Clegg they would much more accurately be called The Statists. Cannabis is a start, but a strong defence of free speech, a firm stand against un-needed snooping powers etc might be the way to go.
The cannabis thing is a bad move as it doesn't differentiate them from the Greens. I wouldn't say the public are clamouring out for it either. The big opportunity for the LDs is surely to move to the centre with a Corbyn-led Lab way out on the left and a potentially more right wing Tory party before the next election. Targeting ex-LDs on the left is surely an error as they are the people who are least likely to forgive the coalition, while centrist voters are more likely to forgive and forget.
With Jez in charge, the yellow peril could become the home of the sane centre left.
Cameron moving so far left as to be effectively Blairite, is there enough room to get a sensible number of votes between him and the weirdy beardy Marxists ? It seems Farron might be on to something in resurrecting their Liberal credentials and in moving off in a different dimension, but I can't see him being able to drag the rest of him party with him. Too many of the LDs client group are either unusually wet Cameroons and will stay with a left moving Dave, or the besandled, who will be looking at the Greens or giving Jezz a go. To pick up the vote of real liberal voters he would have to kick the EU in to touch and that will never wash with his party.
The obvious place in politics screaming out for a new sensible party is the centre-right, and the kippers aren't it. If not for the curse of FPTP there would be a sensible Reaganite type party which was a frequent coalition partner of the BlairitesTories.
Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.
For the same reason I expect, they hope they can avoid controversy for 6-9 months and then move on to a more prestigious job with a better department/team.
The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.
As I mentioned before and I know it's not her fault, but it's difficult to imagine a PM or indeed a LOTO with the name Heidi ...... the newspapers would have a field day!
You just KNOW they will be digging up everything in her past to try to find some drug use, so they could run with the headline
The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.
As I mentioned before and I know it's not her fault, but it's difficult to imagine a PM or indeed a LOTO with the name Heidi ...... the newspapers would have a field day!
You just KNOW they will be digging up everything in her past to try to find some drug use, so they could run with the headline
This afternoon Number 10 has bowed to the inevitable, and conceded that if (and it is still an if) the deal is done at the EU summit in Brussels this week David Cameron will hold a cabinet meeting as soon as he returns to London early on Friday evening.
Hence the recent kite being flown about cannabis, plenty of time to ditch it in a year or two if it looks like its becoming an embarrassment. That won't be enough though. What they really need to do is actual become LIBERAL, under Clegg they would much more accurately be called The Statists. Cannabis is a start, but a strong defence of free speech, a firm stand against un-needed snooping powers etc might be the way to go.
The cannabis thing is a bad move as it doesn't differentiate them from the Greens. I wouldn't say the public are clamouring out for it either. The big opportunity for the LDs is surely to move to the centre with a Corbyn-led Lab way out on the left and a potentially more right wing Tory party before the next election. Targeting ex-LDs on the left is surely an error as they are the people who are least likely to forgive the coalition, while centrist voters are more likely to forgive and forget.
Its very unlikely the Tories will move much to the right before the next election, Dave will stay on until 2019 unless there is a landslide for Leave, and the new leader wont want to scare the horses before the election. They might well gallop off the the right after the next election but its too late by then. In terms of not getting slaughtered in 2020, I think Mr Herderson is right, they need to pick an issue that is the top of the salience list for 15% of the voters and use that to drive getting their vote out, the obviously choice is liberalism and driving back the nanny state, its not left, its not right, its just left civil service interference in every day life, problem is what is left of his party are a load of old SDP statists.
Putin bombs 2 hospitals to bits and Russian chief drug tester dies unexpectedly. But good old 1983 still presses on with his USA conspiracies. No doubt the kipper love in with Putin will continue.
This afternoon Number 10 has bowed to the inevitable, and conceded that if (and it is still an if) the deal is done at the EU summit in Brussels this week David Cameron will hold a cabinet meeting as soon as he returns to London early on Friday evening.
"it illustrates how Eurosceptics, although in a clear minority in the cabinet, have been able to force Downing Street's hand.
This week's summit and now, the 24 hours that follow, are shaping up to be some of the most important in David Cameron's political career."
Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.
For the same reason I expect, they hope they can avoid controversy for 6-9 months and then move on to a more prestigious job with a better department/team.
Don't be absurd.
I think I might be able to write a little markov-chain bot to replace Flightpath, so he can go and spend more time with his potting shed. It wouldn't have to be complicated, it just needs to tell everyone that they are "absurd", "childish", "pathetic", inserts random insults about "kippers" and cut and pastes bits from Conservative supporting articles whilst losing the line breaks and half the punctuation
This afternoon Number 10 has bowed to the inevitable, and conceded that if (and it is still an if) the deal is done at the EU summit in Brussels this week David Cameron will hold a cabinet meeting as soon as he returns to London early on Friday evening.
What is unusual about that? I know its not a regular meeting day but it seems broadly sensible. It could wait a day or two but would the Sundays not be eager to spread leaks and scare stories in the interests of their circulation figures?
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.
As I mentioned before and I know it's not her fault, but it's difficult to imagine a PM or indeed a LOTO with the name Heidi ...... the newspapers would have a field day!
You just KNOW they will be digging up everything in her past to try to find some drug use, so they could run with the headline
"Heidi high..."
Is Heidi a more ridiculous name than Boris? I don't think so.
She has been quite effective in skewering Mr Hunt on the rare occasions he decides to appear in the Commons. Health is an area difficult to make too many enemies in the PLP. I think she merits a modest punt at 66/1.
On topic, whoever would have thought that a politician who takes on one of the groups of people most trusted by the general public would see his popularity crash?
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
On topic, whoever would have thought that a politician who takes on one of the groups of people most trusted by the general public would see his popularity crash?
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
If the leader of the Conservative party, who sits in the middle of its support (a tad more liberal, perhaps, but not much) is not a "real" conservative, you are using a definition of conservatism designed to produce that result.
So with Hunt hated, Cameron rep down the toilet with his EU lies and Osborne never popular, clears throat....Corbynism is sweeping the nation! right?
Is Hunt 'hated' or has he just had some bad press? Put another way, will the NHS strikes be all forgotten by the autumn?
Arguably neither but Hunt does seem to have picked this fight unnecessarily (and it recalls a similar stunt with the BBC over The Apprentice) so the question is whether Hunt is a lightweight with poor judgement, or a clever politician out to burnish his credentials as a hard man. I guess the 66/1 is a punt on the latter.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
If the leader of the Conservative party, who sits in the middle of its support (a tad more liberal, perhaps, but not much) is not a "real" conservative, you are using a definition of conservatism designed to produce that result.
I would argue that this has been the most rightwing government since the Second World War.
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
If you really believed any of the above the LDs would be voting with the Government still. But they aren't and you don't.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
If the leader of the Conservative party, who sits in the middle of its support (a tad more liberal, perhaps, but not much) is not a "real" conservative, you are using a definition of conservatism designed to produce that result.
I would argue that this has been the most rightwing government since the Falklands War.
Meanwhile, in the most imminent betting market, I still think an FG/FF government is not at likely to happen. The numbers would make sense, but the politics doesn't:
Mr. Herdson, they should've gone for Lamb anyway. I agree he's better suited as a leftwing alternative to Corbyn than Farron, though.
Against an empty suit like Burnham, Farron might not have been a bad bet - lots of left-wing anger out there - but it's difficult to see how he can make a pitch to that audience now.
The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.
As I mentioned before and I know it's not her fault, but it's difficult to imagine a PM or indeed a LOTO with the name Heidi ...... the newspapers would have a field day!
You just KNOW they will be digging up everything in her past to try to find some drug use, so they could run with the headline
"Heidi high..."
Is Heidi a more ridiculous name than Boris? I don't think so.
She has been quite effective in skewering Mr Hunt on the rare occasions he decides to appear in the Commons. Health is an area difficult to make too many enemies in the PLP. I think she merits a modest punt at 66/1.
I'm not convinced that HA, or perhaps her researchers, have many gorms; or research skills.
In her response to the Hunt Statement on Feb 11th, one of the stats she flung around the Commons was the ludicrous "90% of Junior Doctors be prepared would leave the NHS" thing. That is 90% of Junior Doctors who filled in the poll on the anti-contract campaign Facebook page:
So with Hunt hated, Cameron rep down the toilet with his EU lies and Osborne never popular, clears throat....Corbynism is sweeping the nation! right?
Is Hunt 'hated' or has he just had some bad press? Put another way, will the NHS strikes be all forgotten by the autumn?
Arguably neither but Hunt does seem to have picked this fight unnecessarily (and it recalls a similar stunt with the BBC over The Apprentice) so the question is whether Hunt is a lightweight with poor judgement, or a clever politician out to burnish his credentials as a hard man. I guess the 66/1 is a punt on the latter.
Whether taking on the junior doctors was poor judgement will depend on whether he wins or not.
The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.
I think you're on to something.
There's only a 5.5% probability of a 79 year old dying in that year - life expectancy is 8.6 years and the leading cause of death is cancer......
Overweight 79 year old dies in his sleep not long after a Trans Pacific flight from Hong Kong - who are they trying to kid......
On the contrary, I'm not 'on to' anything. I have not read any of the links posted here about the story, and can't say whether I think he died of natural causes or whether a fatal heart attack was deliberately induced.
What I will NOT say is that the account of the authorities undoubtedly represents inviolable truth. Why would one commit to anything so naive? A ruling elite prepared to sacrifice the lives of 500,000 Iraqis is more than capable of heart-attacking a 79 year old judge if it so desires.
If you really think about it, conspiracy theorism is inherently more sensible than conspiracy denial. A conspiracy theory is either correct or incorrect; either the facts stack up or they don't. Conspiracy denial is based on a pathological inability to cope with the fact that those in power might deliberately use that power for ill.
It says more about you that you live in a world where fatal heart attacks are induced....
Yes. The real world, not the world as I would wish it to be, all primroses and buttercups.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
I predicted Cameron would be damaged.[...] could end up an almost Blair-like figure. Electorally successful yet emotionally rejected.
Heir to Blair, remember?
Whatever Dave does he'll never top the whole heap of rolling slurry and shit that Blair unleashed in the middle east. That legacy won't be beaten for decades.
On a slightly more sophisticated note, is it a problem for Labour that they need to talk down the NHS as one of their few effective tools for attacking the Government?
So with Hunt hated, Cameron rep down the toilet with his EU lies and Osborne never popular, clears throat....Corbynism is sweeping the nation! right?
Is Hunt 'hated' or has he just had some bad press? Put another way, will the NHS strikes be all forgotten by the autumn?
Arguably neither but Hunt does seem to have picked this fight unnecessarily (and it recalls a similar stunt with the BBC over The Apprentice) so the question is whether Hunt is a lightweight with poor judgement, or a clever politician out to burnish his credentials as a hard man. I guess the 66/1 is a punt on the latter.
Whether taking on the junior doctors was poor judgement will depend on whether he wins or not.
No, because Hunt could almost certainly have improved weekend cover by sitting down with the doctors who, after all, are probably themselves quite keen on the idea of helping patients, rather than messing around with pay rates. And no, because even if he "wins" by imposing the contract, we must remember most doctors probably vote Conservative so he is driving his own party's voters away.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
If the leader of the Conservative party, who sits in the middle of its support (a tad more liberal, perhaps, but not much) is not a "real" conservative, you are using a definition of conservatism designed to produce that result.
I would argue that this has been the most rightwing government since the Second World War.
I could argue it has been the most Keynsian Government since 1978.
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
That's a lot of typing for "it's not fair" or "voters are bastards".
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
My main concern is Cameron's respect for his party and its internal democracy. For example, I welcomed same sex marriage but did not like the way it was driven through by the Govt (without being in the manifesto), rather than quietly supporting a backbencher to take the lead. Same result just by different means.
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
That's a lot of typing for "it's not fair" or "voters are bastards".
As usual you don't address the points made. Why not try it, you may like it.
Mr. Herdson, they should've gone for Lamb anyway. I agree he's better suited as a leftwing alternative to Corbyn than Farron, though.
Against an empty suit like Burnham, Farron might not have been a bad bet - lots of left-wing anger out there - but it's difficult to see how he can make a pitch to that audience now.
Farron gives many Lib Dem members a warm feeling in their legs. Something that feels good for a few brief seconds?
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
Funny, a lot of the centre right have been saying that for a while, its the Nabavi centrists that have been telling everyone that will listen that he is a real conservative, no one is fooled, especially as you say with regard to his EU position. The only difference is having to put up with this idiotic dance of the seven veils as he tries to hold his overstretched "right-of-centre" coalition together. Aside from being a more blatant (i.e. honest) Europhile it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Cameron and Clegg.
If the leader of the Conservative party, who sits in the middle of its support (a tad more liberal, perhaps, but not much) is not a "real" conservative, you are using a definition of conservatism designed to produce that result.
I would argue that this has been the most rightwing government since the Second World War.
I could argue it has been the most Keynsian Government since 1978.
Opinion polls schmoles but is this not the second flight of fancy to show a fairly sharp drop in Labour support in the last week? (Comres being the other)
They have had a rotten couple of months. Maybe it is catching up with them. 32% still strikes me as unrealistically high though.
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
That's a lot of typing for "it's not fair" or "voters are bastards".
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
That's a lot of typing for "it's not fair" or "voters are bastards".
As usual you don't address the points made. Why not try it, you may like it.
Comments
The audit assistants seem to be getting younger every year. Not sure the one in at the moment has left school long :<
Its typical and its pathetic of the public and media alike.
EU = The First Order
Well George is firmly tied to the remain mast. Not sure about May... I think she's got on the remain horse and it's rode off though.
He may be popular, but that's not the same as being credible.
Can’t really argue that the EU represents Free Tade, though!
With Jez in charge, the yellow peril could become the home of the sane centre left.
Assuming Cameron does not change his mind then the tory membership needs to be very sober when it gets to a decision. Getting all worked up about the EU in the way that some hysterics on here are praying that they do is hardlybthe way to stumble onto a good choice.
After Jeremy Corbyn has "a bizarre ice-pick accident". Enough said.
The Liberal Democrats
Not Liberal
Not Democratic
Just pointless.
The sooner they cease to exist the better for everyone.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/15/berners-and-corybnistas-new-coalitions-left/
The obvious place in politics screaming out for a new sensible party is the centre-right, and the kippers aren't it. If not for the curse of FPTP there would be a sensible Reaganite type party which was a frequent coalition partner of the BlairitesTories.
"Heidi high..."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35581401
This afternoon Number 10 has bowed to the inevitable, and conceded that if (and it is still an if) the deal is done at the EU summit in Brussels this week David Cameron will hold a cabinet meeting as soon as he returns to London early on Friday evening.
No doubt the kipper love in with Putin will continue.
This week's summit and now, the 24 hours that follow, are shaping up to be some of the most important in David Cameron's political career."
The anti-Lib Dem and anti-Farron jibes from the usual suspects are amusing as it betrays a total lack of political acumen and awareness.
The Alliance has been in power since, arguably, 1990 and certainly 1997. Not the parties, of course, neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats nor even the Liberal Democrats have managed to scale that peak but in truth the SDP has won the political war and I would imagine, apart from the Brown years, David Owen could have served comfortably in the Blair, Coalition and Cameron majority Governments.
Cameron called himself a "liberal conservative" once. Well, perhaps and he has to throw the occasional bone to the red-meat brigade but he's essentially a Liberal Democrat. On the EU, his policy of reform and re-negotiation has been LD policy for ages while the recent speech on penal reform could have been made by any Liberal Democrat leader and echoed none other than the late Roy Jenkins.
The irony is that while the Liberal party has never been weaker, its ideas and influence at the top of Government has never been stronger - with Cameron, it's Coalition 2.0 in all but name.
The other unpleasant truth for Conservatives is they wouldn't have won without Cameron last year and once David departs, none of the rag tag and bobtail of aspiring successors (Boris excluded) has anything like the same appeal with the public.
If Cameron defected and set up his own party, he'd probably poll 20%.
No, while the state of the Liberal Democrat party leaves much to be desired, the triumph of liberalism (whether in Conservative or "New Labour" guise) is assured.
She has been quite effective in skewering Mr Hunt on the rare occasions he decides to appear in the Commons. Health is an area difficult to make too many enemies in the PLP. I think she merits a modest punt at 66/1.
Thank-you to whoever pointed out the 6/4 on The Revenant last night. Locked in a nice little profit that will pay for a nice little lunch.
(Modesty forbids me pointing out who.)
As if that's the sort of people we should be in a relationship with. https://t.co/JrNsAIMJRs
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-seeks-to-quash-fine-gael-fianna-fáil-coalition-talk-1.2535585
There was just one poll over the weekend, with poorish figures for FG and Labour compared with some other recent polls:
https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/02/13/valentines-day-massacre-for-government-parties-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-business-post-red-c-opinion-poll-14th-february-2016/
The current odds on the make-up of the next government still look wrong to me:
FG+FF 7/4: too short surely
Good value:
FG Min 6/1
FG+Lab 4/1
I must say to be told how to vote in Referendum by J Redwood in an email to colleagues marks a new low in my life in the House #buggeroff
In her response to the Hunt Statement on Feb 11th, one of the stats she flung around the Commons was the ludicrous "90% of Junior Doctors be prepared would leave the NHS" thing. That is 90% of Junior Doctors who filled in the poll on the anti-contract campaign Facebook page:
"Earlier this week, a poll found that nearly 90% of junior doctors would be prepared to leave the NHS if a contract were imposed."
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160211/debtext/160211-0002.htm#16021153000427
That poll had been pointed out as gibberish by Anthony Wells the day before:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9618#comments
But with the Shadow Cabinet being what it is now...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsvfofcIE1Q
Those who like to keep defining their brand of Toryism as the true way remind me of Corbynistas.
I consider the Party to be a broad church owned by no faction.
http://labourlist.org/2016/02/gmb-backs-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu/
I'm not sure the EU is safe, sane and consensual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLcwhgrxTWs
I mean he tried to turn the UK and France into one country.
The man was a Federalist.
They have had a rotten couple of months. Maybe it is catching up with them. 32% still strikes me as unrealistically high though.
LDs 8 seats