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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in

SystemSystem Posts: 11,704
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in the latest YouGov leader ratings

YouGov’s February leader ratings are out and the bad news for the health secretary is that 17% of those sampled said he was doing WELL compared with 65% saying BADLY. What’s even more striking is that amongst those who voted CON at the general election the split was 36% WELL to 49% BADLY. Generally party supporters rate their own positively.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    edited February 2016
    Well not surprising given the strike.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And the Tories are over ten points clear. Next.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Where's Tim Farron???
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Hunt's implementing reforms in the only Gov't department that so far as I can see has an increasing budget.

    He was always going to be the human shield for the Gov't. The last one, Lansley got so riddled with bullets that he had to be cast aside ! I suspect the Gov't will do the same with Hunt in due course, but Lansley absorbed 2 years worth of flak so it isn't the right time to dump Jeremy just yet :)
  • Options
    The only time Cameron has dropped a minister like a bad case of the clap was Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary, when his reforms were in danger of undoing the Tory detox strategy of which the NHS was central.

    So bad news for those of us Hunt as next PM/Tory leader at 66/1
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    George's net ratings just 1 point behind Dave :)
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ummm http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6932051/Judge-found-dead-with-pillow-over-his-head-at-celebrity-hideaway.html
    A TOP US judge who died at a celebrity hideaway over the weekend was found with a pillow over his head, according to the ranch owner who found his body.

    Antonin Scalia had gone to bed at about 9pm on Friday evening after telling John Poindexter it had been a long day and he wanted to get some sleep.

    Poindexter went to his room at about 8.30am the next day but the door was locked so assumed the judge did not want to be disturbed.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016
    Afternoon all.

    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:
  • Options

    Ummm http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6932051/Judge-found-dead-with-pillow-over-his-head-at-celebrity-hideaway.html

    A TOP US judge who died at a celebrity hideaway over the weekend was found with a pillow over his head, according to the ranch owner who found his body.

    Antonin Scalia had gone to bed at about 9pm on Friday evening after telling John Poindexter it had been a long day and he wanted to get some sleep.

    Poindexter went to his room at about 8.30am the next day but the door was locked so assumed the judge did not want to be disturbed.
    Is that John Poindexter of Iran-Contra infamy?

    That'll get the conspiracy theorists excited.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT:

    Interesting article on Trump's support amongst Latinos:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/no-joke-trump-can-win-plenty-of-latinos.html

    Seems like he has found a new way of doing politics:

    While Latinos haven’t forgotten what Trump said about Mexican immigrants being criminals and rapists, and how he wants to deport 11 million people, they have begun to put such comments in the context of a candidate who, it often seems, has offended just about everyone in this country.

    So that's OK then!

    "That's just Boris Donald being Boris Donald."
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.

    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.

    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    The only time Cameron has dropped a minister like a bad case of the clap was Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary, when his reforms were in danger of undoing the Tory detox strategy of which the NHS was central.

    So bad news for those of us Hunt as next PM/Tory leader at 66/1

    Gove for that house trained idiot Morgan ?
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    The only time Cameron has dropped a minister like a bad case of the clap was Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary, when his reforms were in danger of undoing the Tory detox strategy of which the NHS was central.

    So bad news for those of us Hunt as next PM/Tory leader at 66/1

    Gove for that house trained idiot Morgan ?
    He brought Gove back. Poor Lansley was expecting to be our man in Bruxelles.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Where's Tim Farron???

    Out of his head?
    Innocent face.
  • Options

    Afternoon all.

    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/12133775/Tim-Farron-leader-of-the-Liberal-Democrats-admits-he-wont-be-remembered.html
  • Options

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    No one pushes Jerry Hunt around,
    Well they do, but not for long
    'Cause when I get fit and grow bionic arms
    The whole worlds gonna wish it weren't born

    (With apologies to Paul Weller)
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    The only time Cameron has dropped a minister like a bad case of the clap was Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary, when his reforms were in danger of undoing the Tory detox strategy of which the NHS was central.

    So bad news for those of us Hunt as next PM/Tory leader at 66/1

    Gove for that house trained idiot Morgan ?
    Mitchell, though that was self-inflicted.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    On topic: If Jeremy Hunt manages to introduce the new contract without big disruption, his ratings (especially amongst party members) could rapidly switch to quite favourable. In addition the contest is probably two years away, depending on what happens in EURef.

    So don't throw away those 66/1 betting slips quite yet!
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    First idea of impact of GOP debate on S.Carolina:

    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/699052674277318656
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    What I'm intrigued to know is whether Ted Cruz will deport himself in his first act as Pres.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Speedy said:

    First idea of impact of GOP debate on S.Carolina:

    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/699052674277318656

    Yes but how far are they ahead of second and who is that are the big questions.

    #PrayforTedCruz
  • Options
    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000
  • Options

    On topic: If Jeremy Hunt manages to introduce the new contract without big disruption, his ratings (especially amongst party members) could rapidly switch to quite favourable. In addition the contest is probably two years away, depending on what happens in EURef.

    So don't throw away those 66/1 betting slips quite yet!

    Agreed.

    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    The only time Cameron has dropped a minister like a bad case of the clap was Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary, when his reforms were in danger of undoing the Tory detox strategy of which the NHS was central.

    So bad news for those of us Hunt as next PM/Tory leader at 66/1

    Gove for that house trained idiot Morgan ?
    He brought Gove back. Poor Lansley was expecting to be our man in Bruxelles.
    True I guess. Incidentally what do members see in Morgan aside from her having ovaries, she keeps being mentioned as a long-odds runner for the leadership, and yet she is a conspicuously house-trained minister, economically illiterate, with a dull TV manner. Not to mention her crowning glory the statement that "we need to promote tolerance of beliefs and ideas even if we strongly disapprove of them." - like ISIS ?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
  • Options

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    MoE 3% - move along nothing to see here ;)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    He'll take a hit if the GBP vote to leave alright !
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    edited February 2016
    Indigo said:

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    MoE 3% - move along nothing to see here ;)
    But given the hyperbole on here I was expecting to see the Tories take a massive hit.

    Proves once again the GB public don't care about the EU
  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sleazy, broken, Tories on the slide.
  • Options

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
  • Options

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    For the same reason I expect, they hope they can avoid controversy for 6-9 months and then move on to a more prestigious job with a better department/team.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Hull's only UKIP councillor has quit the party to join Labour https://t.co/nniplnFGMT https://t.co/IELGtfrW8G
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Speedy said:

    First idea of impact of GOP debate on S.Carolina:

    twitter.com/ppppolls/status/699052674277318656

    Ha. Donald Trump winning is now so familiar as to be boring.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    MoE 3% - move along nothing to see here ;)
    But given the hyperbole on here I was expecting to see the Tories take a massive hit.

    Proves once again the GB public don't care about the EU
    Or the Tories are actually down 4 points and then Kippers up 4, who knows! the joys of a small sample poll ;) Labour could be down 6 gloat
  • Options

    Indigo said:

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    MoE 3% - move along nothing to see here ;)
    But given the hyperbole on here I was expecting to see the Tories take a massive hit.

    Proves once again the GB public don't care about the EU
    No it doesn't prove anything of the sort.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
    Fun?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    LibDems move to within 25% of Labour.

    Their fight-back begins here....
  • Options
    What EU referendum? None in the diary that I can see.

    What Doctors strike, only those inconveneiced on the day would notice - all too few of us luckily.

    (The only really annoying thing about the doctors strike is entitled tarquinas sounding off about thinking about emigrating to Australia. Of course, they are somewhat dismayed to learn we ALL consider this alot, doctors or not - it is a fanciful whimsy after all!)
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,553

    The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.

    I think you're on to something.

    There's only a 5.5% probability of a 79 year old dying in that year - life expectancy is 8.6 years and the leading cause of death is cancer......

    http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/80/79

    Overweight 79 year old dies in his sleep not long after a Trans Pacific flight from Hong Kong - who are they trying to kid......
    On the contrary, I'm not 'on to' anything. I have not read any of the links posted here about the story, and can't say whether I think he died of natural causes or whether a fatal heart attack was deliberately induced.

    What I will NOT say is that the account of the authorities undoubtedly represents inviolable truth. Why would one commit to anything so naive? A ruling elite prepared to sacrifice the lives of 500,000 Iraqis is more than capable of heart-attacking a 79 year old judge if it so desires.

    If you really think about it, conspiracy theorism is inherently more sensible than conspiracy denial. A conspiracy theory is either correct or incorrect; either the facts stack up or they don't. Conspiracy denial is based on a pathological inability to cope with the fact that those in power might deliberately use that power for ill.
  • Options

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
    They put on the tables who commissioned it. If it is left blank YouGov conducted it and paid for it themselves.

    On these data tables it is left blank
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Has Lord Ashcroft indicated what his intentions are with respect to undertaking polling?
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    WTF?

    Gareth Corfield
    Guardian confesses that it employs 13 THOUSAND student bloggers - and doesn't pay them https://t.co/dmXk4AjPA1
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    MoE 3% - move along nothing to see here ;)
    But given the hyperbole on here I was expecting to see the Tories take a massive hit.

    Proves once again the GB public don't care about the EU
    No it doesn't prove anything of the sort.
    Quite, it proves that a mostly sensible party with quite a lot of recent fuckwittery on the EU have a better chance of getting elected than another party being taken over by the hard left and led by an amiable bearded tit (pace SeanT) ... not exactly a shocker.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.

    I think you're on to something.

    There's only a 5.5% probability of a 79 year old dying in that year - life expectancy is 8.6 years and the leading cause of death is cancer......

    http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/80/79

    Overweight 79 year old dies in his sleep not long after a Trans Pacific flight from Hong Kong - who are they trying to kid......
    On the contrary, I'm not 'on to' anything. I have not read any of the links posted here about the story, and can't say whether I think he died of natural causes or whether a fatal heart attack was deliberately induced.

    What I will NOT say is that the account of the authorities undoubtedly represents inviolable truth. Why would one commit to anything so naive? A ruling elite prepared to sacrifice the lives of 500,000 Iraqis is more than capable of heart-attacking a 79 year old judge if it so desires.

    If you really think about it, conspiracy theorism is inherently more sensible than conspiracy denial. A conspiracy theory is either correct or incorrect; either the facts stack up or they don't. Conspiracy denial is based on a pathological inability to cope with the fact that those in power might deliberately use that power for ill.
    It says more about you that you live in a world where fatal heart attacks are induced....
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
    They put on the tables who commissioned it. If it is left blank YouGov conducted it and paid for it themselves.

    On these data tables it is left blank
    Extraordinary. They must be incredibly short of work if they're conducting polls on their own, like a pub with free beer.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016

    WTF?

    Gareth Corfield
    Guardian confesses that it employs 13 THOUSAND student bloggers - and doesn't pay them https://t.co/dmXk4AjPA1

    Well they have to find readers somewhere. Why not promise to publish their writing? But could it be regarded as a pyramid scheme?
  • Options

    On topic: If Jeremy Hunt manages to introduce the new contract without big disruption, his ratings (especially amongst party members) could rapidly switch to quite favourable. In addition the contest is probably two years away, depending on what happens in EURef.

    So don't throw away those 66/1 betting slips quite yet!

    I have just added an 80/1 slip on Gove. Last Parliament's Hunt :D
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
    We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.

    The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
  • Options

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
    They put on the tables who commissioned it. If it is left blank YouGov conducted it and paid for it themselves.

    On these data tables it is left blank
    Extraordinary. They must be incredibly short of work if they're conducting polls on their own, like a pub with free beer.
    No, they like to keep this regular series going.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    This poll should tell Cameron something, the country wants him as Conservative PM with us outside of the EU.

    I'd live with that
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    Lol - but not as good as his 'England are gonna lose to Italy' yesterday. when it comes to predictions he's like SO.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
    They put on the tables who commissioned it. If it is left blank YouGov conducted it and paid for it themselves.

    On these data tables it is left blank
    Extraordinary. They must be incredibly short of work if they're conducting polls on their own, like a pub with free beer.
    No, they like to keep this regular series going.
    Why?
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    This poll should tell Cameron something, the country wants him as Conservative PM with us outside of the EU.

    I'd live with that

    You won't get it.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.

    I think you're on to something.

    There's only a 5.5% probability of a 79 year old dying in that year - life expectancy is 8.6 years and the leading cause of death is cancer......

    http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/80/79

    Overweight 79 year old dies in his sleep not long after a Trans Pacific flight from Hong Kong - who are they trying to kid......
    On the contrary, I'm not 'on to' anything. I have not read any of the links posted here about the story, and can't say whether I think he died of natural causes or whether a fatal heart attack was deliberately induced.

    What I will NOT say is that the account of the authorities undoubtedly represents inviolable truth. Why would one commit to anything so naive? A ruling elite prepared to sacrifice the lives of 500,000 Iraqis is more than capable of heart-attacking a 79 year old judge if it so desires.

    If you really think about it, conspiracy theorism is inherently more sensible than conspiracy denial. A conspiracy theory is either correct or incorrect; either the facts stack up or they don't. Conspiracy denial is based on a pathological inability to cope with the fact that those in power might deliberately use that power for ill.
    It says more about you that you live in a world where fatal heart attacks are induced....
    NFM - 'Normal For Moscow'.
  • Options
    The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.
  • Options
    Wanderer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
    No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.

    Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
  • Options
    felix said:

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    Lol - but not as good as his 'England are gonna lose to Italy' yesterday. when it comes to predictions he's like SO.
    I could be cruel and dig out his 'Dave's lost the election, JackW is talking out of his arse' posts from last April and May.

    SO did accurately call the last general election.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    WTF?

    Gareth Corfield
    Guardian confesses that it employs 13 THOUSAND student bloggers - and doesn't pay them https://t.co/dmXk4AjPA1

    Explains all the bad grammar crap they keep pumping out.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Could easily be one or zero.
  • Options

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
    They put on the tables who commissioned it. If it is left blank YouGov conducted it and paid for it themselves.

    On these data tables it is left blank
    Extraordinary. They must be incredibly short of work if they're conducting polls on their own, like a pub with free beer.
    No, they like to keep this regular series going.
    Why?
    For consistency and methodology testing reasons.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Wanderer said:

    This poll should tell Cameron something, the country wants him as Conservative PM with us outside of the EU.

    I'd live with that

    You won't get it.
    I think you're right, but Cameron could go down as a great if he campaigned for Leave and resigned with his job done.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
    No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.

    Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
    It would be kind of funny if Cameron emerged, pale and trembling at six in the morning. Not very good for Remain mind you.

    Seriously, you're no doubt right about the pork. That can be served in many ways, of course.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I do love Brendan O'Neill http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/peter-tatchell-has-discovered-just-how-cowardly-the-nus-can-be/
    At the University of Oregon, the student union seriously considered scrubbing Martin Luther King’s ‘I have a dream’ quote from the campus walls on the grounds that it focuses only on skin colour, and ‘diversity is so much more than race’. Radicals on other American campuses argue that MLK’s ‘colour-blindness’ — his dream of a nation where people would be judged by their character rather than their colour — negates people’s racial experiences. And now Tatchell, warrior for gay liberation, is snubbed by liberated gay people.

    This Veruca Salt-style revolt against late 20th-century liberators, this sullen, thankless turn by radical young women, gay people and black people against those who devoted their lives to fighting for women, gay people and black people, reveals how poisonous the politics of identity has become
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Could easily be one or zero.
    We need some Welsh council by electiopns to get some real figures.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    felix said:

    WTF?

    Gareth Corfield
    Guardian confesses that it employs 13 THOUSAND student bloggers - and doesn't pay them https://t.co/dmXk4AjPA1

    Explains all the bad grammar crap they keep pumping out.
    Probably explains most of their comments section... CIF, where student bloggers compete to signal their virtue.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    edited February 2016

    WTF?

    Gareth Corfield
    Guardian confesses that it employs 13 THOUSAND student bloggers - and doesn't pay them https://t.co/dmXk4AjPA1

    13 THOUSAND Abby Tomlinsons! :open_mouth: :
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Pew Research
    How Americans think the next President should talk about Islamic Extremism https://t.co/CqJ95jgdUq https://t.co/qEcSfGR9yW
  • Options

    The logic of Hunt doing badly ought to be his Shadow, Heidi Alexander, doing well. Of course, she may lack the political skills to take full advantage, but 66/1 (Skybet, PP, Corals) looks more than fair for Next Labour Leader.

    Hunt's Shadow is the BMA, not Heidi Alexander.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
    No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.

    Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
    It would be kind of funny if Cameron emerged, pale and trembling at six in the morning. Not very good for Remain mind you.

    Seriously, you're no doubt right about the pork. That can be served in many ways, of course.
    Pork-barrelling! You mean we would have to PAY to have a worse deal than we did before the surrender negotiation ?
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Indigo said:

    felix said:

    WTF?

    Gareth Corfield
    Guardian confesses that it employs 13 THOUSAND student bloggers - and doesn't pay them https://t.co/dmXk4AjPA1

    Explains all the bad grammar crap they keep pumping out.
    Probably explains most of their comments section... CIF, where student bloggers compete to signal their virtue.
    Oddly, virtue is not the first thing that springs to mind when reading CiF comments.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Two questions:

    Who pays for a poll about Hunt and why?

    Why would anybody want to be Minister for Health? It would be like taking the Villa job on.

    YouGov paid for it and it isn't just a poll of just Hunt. Is part of their regular tracker series on the major political figures/cabinet ministers.
    Yougov paid for it? My understanding is they conducted it, somebody must have commissioned it.
    They put on the tables who commissioned it. If it is left blank YouGov conducted it and paid for it themselves.

    On these data tables it is left blank
    Extraordinary. They must be incredibly short of work if they're conducting polls on their own, like a pub with free beer.
    No, they like to keep this regular series going.
    Why?
    For consistency and methodology testing reasons.
    Further evidence that the industry is fucked. If they're conducting their own polls their credibility is even more shot. For all we know they open the window and ask for a show of hands.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Indigo said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
    No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.

    Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
    It would be kind of funny if Cameron emerged, pale and trembling at six in the morning. Not very good for Remain mind you.

    Seriously, you're no doubt right about the pork. That can be served in many ways, of course.
    Pork-barrelling! You mean we would have to PAY to have a worse deal than we did before the surrender negotiation ?
    Actually it's worse. You, alone, will have to pay.
  • Options

    Has Lord Ashcroft indicated what his intentions are with respect to undertaking polling?

    "Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars opinion polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... DO things."
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Could easily be one or zero.
    Remember Schroedinger's Lib Dem seat at the GE posited by the BES ?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Wanderer said:

    Indigo said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
    No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.

    Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
    It would be kind of funny if Cameron emerged, pale and trembling at six in the morning. Not very good for Remain mind you.

    Seriously, you're no doubt right about the pork. That can be served in many ways, of course.
    Pork-barrelling! You mean we would have to PAY to have a worse deal than we did before the surrender negotiation ?
    Actually it's worse. You, alone, will have to pay.
    Not at all. As Mr Meeks is keen to remind me, I am an expat bitching from the sidelines, although not through any fault of my own at the moment.
  • Options

    LibDems move to within 25% of Labour.

    Their fight-back begins here....

    LibDems - Spinning here!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Has Lord Ashcroft indicated what his intentions are with respect to undertaking polling?

    "Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars opinion polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... DO things."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvDcJydVcHo
  • Options



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
    Don't forget Galloway.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
    Substandard bearers ^_~
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Could easily be one or zero.
    Remember Schroedinger's Lib Dem seat at the GE posited by the BES ?
    I didn't know he was a candidate?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
    Don't forget Galloway.
    At least remain have Eddie Izzard.
  • Options

    Indigo said:

    Tweeted new poll (by NumbrCrunchrPolitics):

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 39 (-1)
    LAB 32 (-3)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (+1)
    GRN 4 (+1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Fieldwork 12th-14th February
    N~1,000

    Dave taking a real hit and UKIP surging after the disastrous EU renegotiations. Copyright SeanT
    MoE 3% - move along nothing to see here ;)
    But given the hyperbole on here I was expecting to see the Tories take a massive hit.

    Proves once again the GB public don't care about the EU
    How's this for hyperbole?

    [clears throat]

    Supporters of REMAIN are a far more pernicious, perfidious threat to the future of the UK than ISIL

    Beat that, TSE!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    I have a feeling a Boris sized hole could be filled quite soon for leave if he doesn't get enough from that nice Mr Cameron.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    http://www.pewforum.org/2016/02/03/republicans-prefer-blunt-talk-about-islamic-extremism-democrats-favor-caution/?utm_content=buffer6d5bb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interesting survey in the US. Wonder how it would get responded to here, and also a pre-Trump control poll would be nice to see if it existed before he made the hoo hah.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
    Don't forget Galloway.
    At least they wont have to worry about the Marxists and the Pot Heads... oh and Eddie Izzard ;)
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
    Don't forget Galloway.
    At least remain have Eddie Izzard.
    Remain vs Leave: The resistible force meets the moveable object.
  • Options



    Also, Hunt may campaign for Leave, so if there is an election this year he may be well placed to run in that scenario.

    Poor Leave! What have they done to deserve Farage, Fox, and Hunt as their standard-bearers?
    Indeed. I continue to waver in my prediction of who'll lose the referendum between the piss-poor efforts of Remain on the one hand, and a leadership of Remain designed to appeal to about 20% of the electorate on the other.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    LibDems move to within 25% of Labour.

    Their fight-back begins here....

    LibDems - Spinning here!
    LibDems - spinning their tyres here!
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Pulpstar said:

    I have a feeling a Boris sized hole could be filled quite soon for leave if he doesn't get enough from that nice Mr Cameron.

    He would be a fool to take that deal, he could be sacked the month after his backside hit leatherette in a government office, for any reason or no reason that Cameron fancied at the time.

    Loyalty is the expectation of benefits to come.
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    I'm looking forward to a LD thread.
    Bwahaha.

    Afternoon all.
    Always a little sceptical of leadership ratings value when the named is neither a leader or particularly well known - a bit like Tim Farron. :lol:

    There was a poll today indicating the LDs would be down to 2 (if lucky) seats in the Welsh elections.
    Yeah, but why would anyone want to do a thread on that?
    We cover by-elections in Little Widdleton North and the like every week.

    The serious answer is that the Lib Dems need to be making a comeback in places like Wales, where there are real powers at stake, if they're to have a chance in 2015. They can more or less write Scotland off given the SNP's walking-on-water ability at the moment, but Wales is a different matter. All four other parties have problems of some nature. If they can't recover at least something from a dreadful performance in 2011 - indeed, if they're still going backwards - then their route back to their pre-2010 position will be long and hard indeed. If they ever get there.
    The challenge for the LDs is to find 1-2 issues that people care about, where the LDs are on the right side of public opinion and where they are differentiated from all the other parties.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Small stuff, though -3 points for Labour may be more significant.

    I know the summit's on the 18th, but will the incredibly impressive deal be signed and sealed that day?

    Be worth a spread bet. Mid-point maybe 3am on the 19th?
    Do you think Tusk will give Cameron the Tsipras treatment?
    No, but I think some of the smaller countries will hold out for some pork-barrelling.

    Can't blame them, I'd do the same in their position.
    It would be kind of funny if Cameron emerged, pale and trembling at six in the morning. Not very good for Remain mind you.

    Seriously, you're no doubt right about the pork. That can be served in many ways, of course.
    As Cameron allegedly knows....
This discussion has been closed.