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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Doctors dispute: Betting opens on whether Hunt will sur

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    JBWNBPOTUS
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AlanRoden: Tory MSP Gavin Brown describes the SNP and the Tories as a new "taxpayers' alliance". Top trolling!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I found a video with Kasich talking about UFO's, now I'm looking if I can find him saying anything derogatory about muslims too, his Heartland Fox show is a rich seam for opposition research.
    They can accuse him of being a hypocrite and a phony all the way everytime he tries to sound moderate and serious.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Loved that bit. And he lost to O'Malley.

    Scott_P said:
    There is a rather amusing recent episode of the good wife, where the husband is standing for Democract nomination and he goes to Iowa and has to eat a meat sandwich in each of many towns he vists as part of a whirlwind trip and the media catch him spitting it out in one and it sinks his whole campaign.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    There are several aspects to this. The contract removes a lot of the protections separate from the pay aspect. Less monitoring and reduced penalties means that Employers are more inclined to break the rules.

    The second part is financial incentives. If it costs a Trust more to roster people for unsocial hours, then they will not do it lightly.

    The cost of working unsocial hours is also higher. Try getting childcare for a 1200 to 2200 shift on a Saturday, and increasingly Doctors are working mothers. If the rotas are intolerable many will be forced to take career breaks, rather than work them.

    I set the rotas for our department as one of my roles. Interestingly at no time has anyone at any management level asked me to roster more people on at weekends.
    So, in short, you are not answering the question....
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Danny565 said:

    LondonBob said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Just watching GOPTV (sorry, Fox News). Carried two polls showing Bloomberg on 15% in match ups with Trump/Sanders or Cruz/Sanders.

    Is it our considered view that Bloomberg will only enter if Trump/Cruz is the GOP nominee and Sanders the Dem nominee ?

    A strongly establishment candidate on either side would (in my view) mean that Bloomberg couldn't win.

    In a Sanders vs Trump fight though who knows!

    He's only around 30/1 to be Next President on betfair. That's sort of amazing.
    http://buchanan.org/blog/bloomberg-vs-trump-124741

    The morning of the New Hampshire primary, Donald Trump, being interviewed on “Morning Joe,” said that he would welcome his “friend” Michael Bloomberg into the presidential race.

    Which is probably the understatement of 2016.

    By spending a billion dollars, Bloomberg could blanket the nation with ads. But once Republican oppo research groups defined him for Middle America, perhaps 4 in 5 of his votes would come out of the basket upon which Democrats rely.

    For example, as a Jewish-American, Bloomberg might do well in the Dade-Broward-Palm Beach County corridor, taking votes that Clinton or Sanders would need to carry Florida. Yet, where would Bloomberg get the rest of his votes to win the Sunshine State?

    Clearly, Bloomberg is envious of the success of the Donald, since he descended on that escalator at Trump Towers on June 16.

    The problem for Bloomberg is that, while this is the year of the outsider, with populist revolts breaking out in both parties, Sanders and Trump caught the lightning early, while he was restructuring his media empire. And, to be candid, Michael Bloomberg is no barn burner.

    So all together now: “Run, Mike, Run!”
    I'm still not convinced by this idea that Bloomberg would ONLY hurt Democrats.

    While the white working-class make up a big part of the Republicans' voters these days, there is still a fairly substantial "country club" element to their voters (fiscally conservative/socially liberal-ish) which Bloomberg could take from Trump.
    Those people are not numerous, that's why Bloomberg is beating Deez Nuts by the slim margin of 1%.
    Bloomberg voters might have 50% of all the wealth in america but are hardly 1% of voters.

    His policies are unpopular, his lack of charisma apparent, no party apparatus or infrastructure to support him, hostile N.Y. media who hate him since the last years of his term as Mayor there, and a lot of baggage from the time he was Mayor including corruption charges not to mention his effort to ban soda drinks and burgers.

    He's Perot without the policies that made Perot popular.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:
    I think Ed scoffing a bacon sarnie is a little different to Bush scoffing a corndog. Unless Bush claims to be a vegetarian!
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    Scott_P said:
    When I see that picture I FEEL PROUD...
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    perdix said:

    I do wonder if the good will shown to junior doctors will continue. They seem to be waving "save our nhs" placards around whilst resigning or threatening to go to Australia.

    What is the relative pay rate for weekend work in Australia?

    Australia, where the healthcare system is co-financed by public and private funding, and the government encourages individuals with income above a set level to privately insure.

    It's amazing how principles go flying out of the window when ex NHS doctors enter the Southern Hemisphere. The same ones who positively despise private medicine in the UK.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    There are several aspects to this. The contract removes a lot of the protections separate from the pay aspect. Less monitoring and reduced penalties means that Employers are more inclined to break the rules.

    The second part is financial incentives. If it costs a Trust more to roster people for unsocial hours, then they will not do it lightly.

    The cost of working unsocial hours is also higher. Try getting childcare for a 1200 to 2200 shift on a Saturday, and increasingly Doctors are working mothers. If the rotas are intolerable many will be forced to take career breaks, rather than work them.

    I set the rotas for our department as one of my roles. Interestingly at no time has anyone at any management level asked me to roster more people on at weekends.
    It's my understanding that fines for breaking the work rules will be increased.

    There are too many females in the medical posts in the NHS. My experience with female GPs has been 100% satisfactory but it does appear that they don't have the same long term commitment as the men, due mostly to domestic considerations and the thought that they earn enough salary and pension as a second earner in a household.

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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    The Government have assumed that a Corbyn led Labour Party is incapable of winning the next election in 2020. That gives them 9 years. In that time the current crop of Junior Doctors will have worked their way through the system, and those who joined from today will never have worked under anything but the new contract. And so things change, ever so slowly.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    perdix said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    There are several aspects to this. The contract removes a lot of the protections separate from the pay aspect. Less monitoring and reduced penalties means that Employers are more inclined to break the rules.

    The second part is financial incentives. If it costs a Trust more to roster people for unsocial hours, then they will not do it lightly.

    The cost of working unsocial hours is also higher. Try getting childcare for a 1200 to 2200 shift on a Saturday, and increasingly Doctors are working mothers. If the rotas are intolerable many will be forced to take career breaks, rather than work them.

    I set the rotas for our department as one of my roles. Interestingly at no time has anyone at any management level asked me to roster more people on at weekends.
    It's my understanding that fines for breaking the work rules will be increased.

    There are too many females in the medical posts in the NHS. My experience with female GPs has been 100% satisfactory but it does appear that they don't have the same long term commitment as the men, due mostly to domestic considerations and the thought that they earn enough salary and pension as a second earner in a household.

    The fines may still exist, but the enforcement process is significantly weakened.

    The retention rate of nursing graduates 3 years post qualification is about 50%, and it looks as if the retention rate for doctors will shortly be the same.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    watford30 said:

    perdix said:

    I do wonder if the good will shown to junior doctors will continue. They seem to be waving "save our nhs" placards around whilst resigning or threatening to go to Australia.

    What is the relative pay rate for weekend work in Australia?

    Australia, where the healthcare system is co-financed by public and private funding, and the government encourages individuals with income above a set level to privately insure.

    It's amazing how principles go flying out of the window when ex NHS doctors enter the Southern Hemisphere. The same ones who positively despise private medicine in the UK.
    It depends where they work. In Australia the system varies a lot from state to state. Victoria operates a system pretty close to our NHS, Queensland a much more barebones state system. In both though Junior doctors are employed and trained in the state public hospitals. Accredited specialists usually work in both, but this varies by speciality. Not much private work for Casualty Specialists for example.
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    Mary Curnock Cook, head of the Ucas admissions service, said last week that more than half of students accepted on to degree courses last year had missed their required results by two or more grades.

    She also warned some teachers were "over-predicting" applicants' grades to improve their chances of university offers.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/education-35550788

    There is a very simple solution to this yearly sham.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited February 2016
    Query on the thought that all the doctors will bugger off to Oz. Isn't Australia these days a very expensive place to live?

    From occasional viewing of those stupid relocation programmes it always seems in UK money that housing and food are eye wateringly expensive these days. Long gone are the days where you sell you UK house and buy a mansion in Oz.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477

    perdix said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    There are several aspects to this. The contract removes a lot of the protections separate from the pay aspect. Less monitoring and reduced penalties means that Employers are more inclined to break the rules.

    The second part is financial incentives. If it costs a Trust more to roster people for unsocial hours, then they will not do it lightly.

    The cost of working unsocial hours is also higher. Try getting childcare for a 1200 to 2200 shift on a Saturday, and increasingly Doctors are working mothers. If the rotas are intolerable many will be forced to take career breaks, rather than work them.

    I set the rotas for our department as one of my roles. Interestingly at no time has anyone at any management level asked me to roster more people on at weekends.
    It's my understanding that fines for breaking the work rules will be increased.

    There are too many females in the medical posts in the NHS. My experience with female GPs has been 100% satisfactory but it does appear that they don't have the same long term commitment as the men, due mostly to domestic considerations and the thought that they earn enough salary and pension as a second earner in a household.

    The fines may still exist, but the enforcement process is significantly weakened.

    The retention rate of nursing graduates 3 years post qualification is about 50%, and it looks as if the retention rate for doctors will shortly be the same.

    At last! A public sector organisation with a worse retention rate than teachers. We only manage 40% after five years.

    Looking at a thread of clearly intelligent people who are convinced we all work 20 hour weeks for extortionate salaries (and long holidays in the case of teachers) it's not hard to see why this may be a puzzle to the wider population.
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    Any junior hospital doctor feeling under undue pressure in England should go to Wales. There the producer interest is paramount. Hip ops take 197 days whereas in England they take 75.Waiting times for diagnosis of cancer heart pneumonia and hernia problems take significantly longer. There is a Labour government. No strikes. The union prevails. No nasty Conservative government demanding reform. Life is just easier.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    perdix said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    There are several aspects to this. The contract removes a lot of the protections separate from the pay aspect. Less monitoring and reduced penalties means that Employers are more inclined to break the rules.

    The second part is financial incentives. If it costs a Trust more to roster people for unsocial hours, then they will not do it lightly.

    The cost of working unsocial hours is also higher. Try getting childcare for a 1200 to 2200 shift on a Saturday, and increasingly Doctors are working mothers. If the rotas are intolerable many will be forced to take career breaks, rather than work them.

    I set the rotas for our department as one of my roles. Interestingly at no time has anyone at any management level asked me to roster more people on at weekends.
    It's my understanding that fines for breaking the work rules will be increased.

    There are too many females in the medical posts in the NHS. My experience with female GPs has been 100% satisfactory but it does appear that they don't have the same long term commitment as the men, due mostly to domestic considerations and the thought that they earn enough salary and pension as a second earner in a household.

    The fines may still exist, but the enforcement process is significantly weakened.

    The retention rate of nursing graduates 3 years post qualification is about 50%, and it looks as if the retention rate for doctors will shortly be the same.

    At last! A public sector organisation with a worse retention rate than teachers. We only manage 40% after five years.

    Looking at a thread of clearly intelligent people who are convinced we all work 20 hour weeks for extortionate salaries (and long holidays in the case of teachers) it's not hard to see why this may be a puzzle to the wider population.
    I am sure money is a factor in retention in any field, but a big part is also the non-financial aspects. The abuse from the ministers, the officious box-ticking inspections, the constant under-mining by the press and btl commentators. Is it any wonder that the scales drop from peoples eyes and they decide to try something else?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dyingswan said:

    Any junior hospital doctor feeling under undue pressure in England should go to Wales. There the producer interest is paramount. Hip ops take 197 days whereas in England they take 75.Waiting times for diagnosis of cancer heart pneumonia and hernia problems take significantly longer. There is a Labour government. No strikes. The union prevails. No nasty Conservative government demanding reform. Life is just easier.

    @WelshGovernment: We have no plans to impose new contract on #juniordoctors. Wales has strong tradition of working in partnership with everyone in our NHS

    We look after the staff. The patients, not so much...
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Query on the thought that all the doctors will bugger off to Oz. Isn't Australia these days a very expensive place to live?

    From occasional viewing of those stupid relocation programmes it always seems in UK money that housing and food are eye wateringly expensive these days. Long gone are the days where you sell you UK house and buy a mansion in Oz.

    Australia is eye waveringly expensive. Prices in Sydney make London look reasonable. And that's homes in nice middle class parts of the city, not the super rich areas around Potts Point, Elizabeth Bay etc
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Scott_P said:
    When I see that picture I FEEL PROUD...
    You remember when Bush W. was almost killed by a pretzel?

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/02/11/cracking-under-pressure-marco-rubios-molar-gets-a-campaign-trail-fix/

    "Aboard a flight to Washington, D.C. on Wednesday evening, Mr. Rubio, the Florida senator, cracked a molar while snacking on a Twix bar, he told reporters on Thursday when he stopped at a Cracker Barrel restaurant for breakfast with his wife and four children.

    “I just bit into a Twix bar and I go, ‘Man this Twix bar’s got something really hard in it,’” Mr. Rubio said, recalling the incident. “And I go, ‘Oh my gosh, I cracked my tooth.’” "
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    New Thread New Thread

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    dyingswan said:

    Any junior hospital doctor feeling under undue pressure in England should go to Wales. There the producer interest is paramount. Hip ops take 197 days whereas in England they take 75.Waiting times for diagnosis of cancer heart pneumonia and hernia problems take significantly longer. There is a Labour government. No strikes. The union prevails. No nasty Conservative government demanding reform. Life is just easier.

    @WelshGovernment: We have no plans to impose new contract on #juniordoctors. Wales has strong tradition of working in partnership with everyone in our NHS

    We look after the staff. The patients, not so much...
    Wales has historically struggled to recruit. In part this may be improved by the imbalance between the Welsh and English terms and conditions.

    Any organisation that treats its staff badly is unlikely to get the best out of them. It is true of any public facing industry.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477


    I am sure money is a factor in retention in any field, but a big part is also the non-financial aspects. The abuse from the ministers, the officious box-ticking inspections, the constant under-mining by the press and btl commentators. Is it any wonder that the scales drop from peoples eyes and they decide to try something else?

    Could have written that for teaching too. At a conservative estimate 75% of all paperwork I do has precisely bugger all to do with teaching the children in my classroom, and everything to do with proving to OFSTED how well I'm doing it. That would save approx 10 hours per week if it were ditched, which would make my life very considerably easier.

    Not to mention the rushed reforms to GCSE and A-levels, the fact that when things go well it's the pupils and when they go badly it's your fault, the media firestorms created by journalists (many of whom seem to be barely literate) the constant disciplinary problems, the restricted social life, the heavy loads of books you carry, the endless meetings...

    Don't get me wrong. It's still a good job and I love doing it. But there are so many pointless and difficult things that on top of the already huge workload of planning and marking and teaching really do sometimes stretch me to breaking point.
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    Scott_P said:

    dyingswan said:

    Any junior hospital doctor feeling under undue pressure in England should go to Wales. There the producer interest is paramount. Hip ops take 197 days whereas in England they take 75.Waiting times for diagnosis of cancer heart pneumonia and hernia problems take significantly longer. There is a Labour government. No strikes. The union prevails. No nasty Conservative government demanding reform. Life is just easier.

    @WelshGovernment: We have no plans to impose new contract on #juniordoctors. Wales has strong tradition of working in partnership with everyone in our NHS

    We look after the staff. The patients, not so much...
    Wales has historically struggled to recruit. In part this may be improved by the imbalance between the Welsh and English terms and conditions.

    Any organisation that treats its staff badly is unlikely to get the best out of them. It is true of any public facing industry.
    Wales NHS is a disaster under labour
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    JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 378
    Carlotta Vance

    "Good to know that the NHS in Scotland is organised around the interests of the producers, not the consumers"

    A truly feeble response given that consumer satisfaction in Scotland is considerably higher than in England :-)
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    MattW said:

    Chris_A said:

    Watford, Mortimer et al I don't know anyone who thinks the NHS is a religious movement but you'd be hard pushed to find a more efficient service. And if people are going to get what they pay for then the government's going to have to get the message across that they don't pay for very much.

    And I'd have the evens on Hunt going of I were you.; he won't last beyond the summer.

    Is there any evidence to support that, by any chance?
    You could start here http://shr.sagepub.com/content/2/7/60.short from the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

    There there's the evidence of how little we spend collectively on healthcare
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc

    Nah, we've been through this before.

    Comparing health spending to GDP is STUPID. Because if we all had a 100% pay rise (or, in reality, if our GDP doubled) our health spending would not likely need to double, but our performance on this measure would halve.
    Go on then. Tell me do we spend more on health than the Belgians?
    This isn't a comprehension exercise. This is a politics site.

    Why does this measure have any value?
    Because you parrot the Tory party line without any evidence. To answer the question whether we measure in %age GDP or US$ per capita we spend less. Just like we do compared with less well off countries than ours. You may not like it but the NHS is pretty cost effective at what it does. You haven't offered a shred of evidence to show otherwise.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Mortimer said:



    Care to comment that momentum seems to be swinging behind the Govt?

    Not in any significant way - what's happened according to the poll is an element of polarisation, with 8% swinging from "tend to support" to "strongly support" and 7% swinging from don't know/neither to "oppose", especially "strongly oppose". The overall balance is a 3-1 lead for the doctors, with opinion hardening. If you were Jeremy Hunt, would you treat the news that 14% strongly support you with jubilation?

    It's brave in the Yes Minister sense. But e's obviously got contract imposition cleared, so better on him still being in post in January looks sensible.
    Yes, although that's down from 4:1 last time. Clearly not where the government would want it to be, of course.

    On the practical politics, yes. Hunt won't have taken a flyer on this - the PM will have to back it at PMQs and elsewhere - so if he is sacked, it'll be for his handling of the issue rather than the decision itself.
    Sometimes you have to face the harsh necessity of reality. Something many never learn - until it is too late.
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