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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump and Sanders heading for big wins in New Hampshire

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  • MaxPB said:

    NeverKiss Marry a Tory!

    Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/36ehbscxjo/YouGov-The Times Results - Marrying different political persuasions - 160122.pdf

    Quite telling that Conservatives are much happier to marry people with opposing views than Labour supporters. Lefties are much less comfortable having their views challenged and see themselves as "right" and righteous, they would much rather ensure their friends (and lovers) are all like minded than have someone challenge them.
    If you visit Labour List, the comrades are struggling with an inrush of expelled Guidoites. Some have adopted personas as Corbyn supporters and are taking the urine mercilessly... well it would be merciless but several of the committed supporters of Jeremy don't/cannot see they are being mocked...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070

    Latest climate scare

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rising-sea-levels-leave-just-161148572.html

    glug glug glug for London. Are they employing the same advisors as Project Fear/Remain?

    It's regrettable reports like this over-dramatise for shock value. Even if cities like London and New York and Shanghai can build defences, there are hundreds of millions of people who currently live on or near the coast who would be vulnerable to even small rises in sea levels.

    As always, it's easy to debunk and ridicule predictions of what might happen in 20-50 years time or dismiss it as unimportant but policy makers and planners should be considering these matters as priorities.

    As an example, we can protect central London from the Thames by replacing or improving the current barriers but what of the low-lying land around the Thames Estuary or places like the Isle of Grain ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,797
    Alistair said:

    Jeb Bush is @ 11.1 on Predict It and 7.2 on Betfair

    Trump and Rubio prices broadly in line

    Cruz is 4.3 on PredictIT and 5.7 on Betfair

    I think the narrative may now move to the Bush Rubio battle.

    Bush seems to be upping his game and Rubio is being exposed as an empty suit. Bush in the Nevada cauacus and SC primary look good value to me as he again is being seen as a contender. A safe pair of hands with fire in his belly at last.
  • Alistair said:

    Cromwell said:

    RUBIO RISING ...the real message to come out of Iowa is the rise of Marco Rubio ..in the next seven days before NH he is sure to get a blaze of endorsements from big donors like Sheldon Aldenson and big names like Romney and McCain ...it's not over yet but the writing is clearly on the wall for anyone paying attention

    Cromwell said:

    Rubio will now unify the establishment lane and steamroll to victory ; he will win NH and Nevada too .....this has been on the cards for months and would have been clear to anyone able to read between the lines

    RUBIO WILL BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT .....frame this comment for posterity

    Cromwell said:

    HYUFD said:

    There is no way Rubio is odds on GOP favourite, he polled third and came third. The real winner of the night is Cruz who is now Trump's main rival for the nomination. Unless Rubio beats Trump in New Hampshire or at least beats Cruz for second place he will be running for the bronze medal

    You are a bloody fool ; I have been predicting for months that Rubio will not only become the nominee , but will CRUSH Hillary

    It will not even dawn upon you that Rubio has won the presidency until he's in the White House with his feet upon the desk smoking a victory cigar ...get a clue Sherlock !

    I am awaiting Cromwell's next post with eager anticipation.
    From memory Cromwell strongly opposes Khan for London mayor also.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Jeb Bush is @ 11.1 on Predict It and 7.2 on Betfair

    Trump and Rubio prices broadly in line

    Cruz is 4.3 on PredictIT and 5.7 on Betfair

    I think the narrative may now move to the Bush Rubio battle.

    Bush seems to be upping his game and Rubio is being exposed as an empty suit. Bush in the Nevada cauacus and SC primary look good value to me as he again is being seen as a contender. A safe pair of hands with fire in his belly at last.
    I don't know if Bush has revived his candidacy but if he does there an avalanche of money and patronage behind him.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2016
    Wanderer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Jeb Bush is @ 11.1 on Predict It and 7.2 on Betfair

    Trump and Rubio prices broadly in line

    Cruz is 4.3 on PredictIT and 5.7 on Betfair

    I think the narrative may now move to the Bush Rubio battle.

    Bush seems to be upping his game and Rubio is being exposed as an empty suit. Bush in the Nevada cauacus and SC primary look good value to me as he again is being seen as a contender. A safe pair of hands with fire in his belly at last.
    I don't know if Bush has revived his candidacy but if he does there an avalanche of money and patronage behind him.
    As someone who is green on Bush I would be excited to see a quite spectacular comeback, but out of deference to PBers with large red numbers next to his name I hope he sinks without trace.

    Trump +55
    Kasich +131
    Rubio -24
    Field + 27

    This all stared with me putting a 2 quid on Trump back at the start of the year.
  • I wonder if Leave should rename Project Fear as Project Appeasement. Not as catchy, but Project Fear, as a name, seems to be doing Remain's work for them.
  • I wonder if Leave should rename Project Fear as Project Appeasement. Not as catchy, but Project Fear, as a name, seems to be doing Remain's work for them.

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand... those Second World War references just keep coming.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    New thread btw
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    One of the aspects of the primary/caucus process which intrigues me is how a candidate who does unexpectedly well in one contest "carry momentum" to the next state which might be demographically, socially, culturally, economically and politically very different.

    Take Kasich, who did very well last night. Does he have a ground campaign in SC, would he be "known" in that state - he's the Governor of OH if memory serves. Can he buy radio and tv advertising time at such short notice - how does he promote himself across a constituency where he wouldn't be well known ?

    I would imagine success leads to money coming in to the campaign from donors but does that money "transfer" from one campaign to another easily - would Kasich get money that might have gone to another anti-Trump candidate for example ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,726
    edited February 2016
    OchEye said:

    malcolmg said:

    OchEye said:

    Seems like silver haired politics are now in fashion (OK, so I don't know what colour The Donald's hair actually is. Suspect that his barber doesn't know either :)
    Just for fun, I'm thinking about putting some money on David Davis being the next leader of the Tories. Seems there maybe a GE this year, if the rumour mill can be believed, that there are 5 conservative mp's being investigated with pretty cast iron cases against them. (But then again we do know about cast iron guarantees and the Tory leadership promises) Plus the 2 (or possibly more) SNP mp's in trouble... Could be a more interesting year than thought possible a month or so ago.

    They are taking a very long time to find anything wrong/ interview the SNP MP's. Looks like as suspected it was just unionist hot air lying and sour grapes.
    Nice try Malkie, here's a little quiz you might like : http://www.workersliberty.org/node/26236

    Enjoy!
    what is taking so long then , seen lots of hot air spoken but yet to see or hear of anyone being interviewed by police etc or any sign of any wrongdoing. Happy for you to prove otherwise rather than just yellowbelly unionist smearing of course.

    PS unionist Tories or Labour decrying people for making money is a laugh. Some people do need help to save them being stupid but at the end of the day if you have a willing seller and a willing buyer then you cannot whinge afterwards. If those were not the rules then the courts would be full of Tory and Labour parasites. SNP follow exactly the same rules as them.
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