The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
My wife was a Labour voter when we got married and her dad was a Labour councillor. It didn't seem the most important thing about her, I must say. And I was a political geek even then.
The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
Despite my last comment, there is a minority of people who are passionate about politics. I lost a couple of friends when I joined UKIP (most don't care).
It's not just a matter of caring about politics though is it? It's - I don't know - an inability to compartmentalise? Or just that people take themselves (not politics itself) too seriously.
Poor, poor result for Hilary. 8 years ago she beat Obama in this State and Sanders sure isn't any Obama. If she doesn't lift her game soon there is going to be outright panic on the Democratic side.
On the republican side the Corbyn analogy continues to hold good. While all the minor candidates work furiously against each other trying to present themselves as "the" challenger the Donald sails out of sight. To put this into perspective he got as many votes as Cruz, Rubio and Bush put together.
Will it now be Kasich's brief moment in the sun? I seriously doubt it. He is far, far too liberal for the Republican party once the voting moves out of the north east. Just maybe the field will thin now and there will be a better prospect of the anti Donald's coalescing but he must be the very strong favourite.
Bernie v The Donald it looks like.
Donald looks like he should be odds on for sure. Don't know about Bernie, if he can take Nevada or South Carolina, he can dream a dream.
Hilary is very poor , she comes across exactly like the recent Labour donkeys, no policies or principles, just spouting the same platitudes as ever. Looks like she will suffer the same fate as them and be beaten by a no hoper.
If the Democrats had the same voting system as Labour, perhaps, but they don't. Hillary's support with blacks and Sanders' extreme (for the US) positions will be sufficient for her.
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Bernie calls himself a socialist!!
Ben Bradshaw calls himself a Socialist. I'm not sure that Momentum agree.
No, but then Bradshaw is trying to win votes when he calls himself that. Sanders isn't!
The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
There are a lot of pathetic people out there.
In the US it is even worse. Nearly a third of Democrats would be unhappy if their child married a Republican and almost half of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat
Where politics becomes about identity and fundamental values, and not about stewardship of the economy or leadership, you will increasingly see polling like this.
Laying Rubio last week was one of those crystal clear bets that only comes around rarely. He still looks too short to me.
*Way* too short.
Trying to spot the value in the field. Still think it's with Trump. At some point the penny will drop. Possibly Kasich too if he can pull off a good result in SC but that's much harder territory for him than NH. Still, he has the opportunity to claim the Big Mo now.
There's value somewhere in the non-Trump non-Cruz line-up. Jeb Bush may be it simply by being financially able to outlast the other possibilities. But I think you may well be right about Donald Trump.
I don't profess any great knowledge about US politics, mind.
Me neither ..... where's PtP when you most need him? Possibly the sharpest knife in the PB.com box these past 8 years, when it comes to American politics.
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
IMHO, in a Sanders v Trump contest, outside of New England, Trump would heavily lead among middle and working class white voters, across all age groups.
I agree but I do have one concern. Last time out we heard a lot (from the Democratic side) about how the US electorate was becoming steadily less white and less Republican. I think I remember it being asserted that, had the electorate had the same demographic profile as in 1992 Romney would have won. So, has the electorate moved further left in the last four years? Not enough to make Sanders electable, surely. But possibly the old certainties are going. Obama was an historically liberal candidate and had no trouble winning.
Falling unemployment and teachers supply problems go hand in hand - always have and always will. however, differential pay for subjects and regions could ease the problem.
On reflection, there is the option to do this in Free Schools, isn't there? I thought they were allowed to set pay rates as they wished.
The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
Despite my last comment, there is a minority of people who are passionate about politics. I lost a couple of friends when I joined UKIP (most don't care).
It's not just a matter of caring about politics though is it? It's - I don't know - an inability to compartmentalise? Or just that people take themselves (not politics itself) too seriously.
Indeed. It's usually worst among those who are activists but not holding elected office. As a general rule (though not universal), once people have to start working with those from other parties, they develop a degree of respect for those opponents who deserve it, though more so where one side doesn't have a massive majority, therefore allowing ideologues to indulge their prejudices.
Poor, poor result for Hilary. 8 years ago she beat Obama in this State and Sanders sure isn't any Obama. If she doesn't lift her game soon there is going to be outright panic on the Democratic side.
On the republican side the Corbyn analogy continues to hold good. While all the minor candidates work furiously against each other trying to present themselves as "the" challenger the Donald sails out of sight. To put this into perspective he got as many votes as Cruz, Rubio and Bush put together.
Will it now be Kasich's brief moment in the sun? I seriously doubt it. He is far, far too liberal for the Republican party once the voting moves out of the north east. Just maybe the field will thin now and there will be a better prospect of the anti Donald's coalescing but he must be the very strong favourite.
Bernie v The Donald it looks like.
Donald looks like he should be odds on for sure. Don't know about Bernie, if he can take Nevada or South Carolina, he can dream a dream.
Hilary is very poor , she comes across exactly like the recent Labour donkeys, no policies or principles, just spouting the same platitudes as ever. Looks like she will suffer the same fate as them and be beaten by a no hoper.
Hilary is the Ed Miliband of US politics - over promoted because of family ties.
Poor, poor result for Hilary. 8 years ago she beat Obama in this State and Sanders sure isn't any Obama. If she doesn't lift her game soon there is going to be outright panic on the Democratic side.
On the republican side the Corbyn analogy continues to hold good. While all the minor candidates work furiously against each other trying to present themselves as "the" challenger the Donald sails out of sight. To put this into perspective he got as many votes as Cruz, Rubio and Bush put together.
Will it now be Kasich's brief moment in the sun? I seriously doubt it. He is far, far too liberal for the Republican party once the voting moves out of the north east. Just maybe the field will thin now and there will be a better prospect of the anti Donald's coalescing but he must be the very strong favourite.
Bernie v The Donald it looks like.
Donald looks like he should be odds on for sure. Don't know about Bernie, if he can take Nevada or South Carolina, he can dream a dream.
Hilary is very poor , she comes across exactly like the recent Labour donkeys, no policies or principles, just spouting the same platitudes as ever. Looks like she will suffer the same fate as them and be beaten by a no hoper.
If the Democrats had the same voting system as Labour, perhaps, but they don't. Hillary's support with blacks and Sanders' extreme (for the US) positions will be sufficient for her.
Bernie hasn’t had to campaign in a state with a significant black population yet, has he? Are black voters for the Democrats generally or for Hillary? Real Clear shows Bernie improvingn there.
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
IMHO, in a Sanders v Trump contest, outside of New England, Trump would heavily lead among middle and working class white voters, across all age groups.
I agree but I do have one concern. Last time out we heard a lot (from the Democratic side) about how the US electorate was becoming steadily less white and less Republican. I think I remember it being asserted that, had the electorate had the same demographic profile as in 1992 Romney would have won. So, has the electorate moved further left in the last four years? Not enough to make Sanders electable, surely. But possibly the old certainties are going. Obama was an historically liberal candidate and had no trouble winning.
Is that true? Would Obama have won had he been white (i.e. without the significant increase in black registration and turnout that accompanied his 2008 nomination)?
The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
There are a lot of pathetic people out there.
In the US it is even worse. Nearly a third of Democrats would be unhappy if their child married a Republican and almost half of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat
Where politics becomes about identity and fundamental values, and not about stewardship of the economy or leadership, you will increasingly see polling like this.
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
IMHO, in a Sanders v Trump contest, outside of New England, Trump would heavily lead among middle and working class white voters, across all age groups.
I agree but I do have one concern. Last time out we heard a lot (from the Democratic side) about how the US electorate was becoming steadily less white and less Republican. I think I remember it being asserted that, had the electorate had the same demographic profile as in 1992 Romney would have won. So, has the electorate moved further left in the last four years? Not enough to make Sanders electable, surely. But possibly the old certainties are going. Obama was an historically liberal candidate and had no trouble winning.
Is that true? Would Obama have won had he been white (i.e. without the significant increase in black registration and turnout that accompanied his 2008 nomination)?
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
Sanders leads Trump in the RCP poll average at the moment. The GOP establishment may prefer Trump to Cruz but only just
Interesting point in the Sanders win is that enthused non-voters can actually turn out in large numbers - may be a warning for UK pollsters not to assume that young people don't bother when it comes to it. I think Sanders should have a decent chance of momentum but both Nevada and SC will test his non-white appeal severely. He's also not IMO a very good speaker - it's the message that's sweeping him on, just like Corbyn.
Trump is a more effective speaker - not by traditional standards of a coherent narrative, but in mastery of soundbites that hit the headlines. Clinton is technically the best of the three, with well-constructed speeches, but too much like 100 other politicians.
And Kasich - such a nice man, and that counts in the US even more than elsewhere. But it's hard to see him winning, as he disagrees with the GOP voters on so much - the first closed primary (SC?) where independents can't come in will really test him.
Profitable night for me, mostly because of £50 on Kasich 2nd with Ladbrokes at 5-4 - thanks to Pulpstar for pointing it out.
The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
There are a lot of pathetic people out there.
In the US it is even worse. Nearly a third of Democrats would be unhappy if their child married a Republican and almost half of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat
Where politics becomes about identity and fundamental values, and not about stewardship of the economy or leadership, you will increasingly see polling like this.
It also reflects the rise of populism globally
Is that synonymous with a rise in social media noise and political virtue signalling? Also improved communications gives a massive boost to single issue politics.
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
IMHO, in a Sanders v Trump contest, outside of New England, Trump would heavily lead among middle and working class white voters, across all age groups.
I agree but I do have one concern. Last time out we heard a lot (from the Democratic side) about how the US electorate was becoming steadily less white and less Republican. I think I remember it being asserted that, had the electorate had the same demographic profile as in 1992 Romney would have won. So, has the electorate moved further left in the last four years? Not enough to make Sanders electable, surely. But possibly the old certainties are going. Obama was an historically liberal candidate and had no trouble winning.
Is that true? Would Obama have won had he been white (i.e. without the significant increase in black registration and turnout that accompanied his 2008 nomination)?
He would be once the GOP started publicising his beliefs, quotes and voting record - things he'd stand behind to defend. He is America's Corbyn.
Yes but Corbyn is facing Cameron, Sanders would be facing a U.S. version of Farage. In most respects a Sanders presidency would be more of a shock to most of the world and to most Americans than a Trump presidency but it is not impossible if Trump is the GOP nominee
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
IMHO, in a Sanders v Trump contest, outside of New England, Trump would heavily lead among middle and working class white voters, across all age groups.
I agree but I do have one concern. Last time out we heard a lot (from the Democratic side) about how the US electorate was becoming steadily less white and less Republican. I think I remember it being asserted that, had the electorate had the same demographic profile as in 1992 Romney would have won. So, has the electorate moved further left in the last four years? Not enough to make Sanders electable, surely. But possibly the old certainties are going. Obama was an historically liberal candidate and had no trouble winning.
I think any Democrat would have won in the circumstances of 2008. My own view is that demographic change tends to be self-correcting, in political terms. An increase in the numbers of group A, who vote one way, tends to push more of group B into voting the other way. And, ethnic groups don't remain loyal to one side for ever. 60 years, non-Anglo whites were strongly Democratic. Now, they aren't.
Interesting point in the Sanders win is that enthused non-voters can actually turn out in large numbers - may be a warning for UK pollsters not to assume that young people don't bother when it comes to it.
They'll turn out for Bernie Nick, I'm afraid Corbyn just isn't as cool as the Vermont Senator. I have Bernie alot better and agree with @MalcolmG on Hilary.
What Bernie might have done in New Hampshire (And this is important for betting purposes) is perhaps secured the DEM nomination if anything happens to Hilary.
Thought I saw research indicating Hispanics are trending rightwards. Is this accurate?
Yes, much like immigrants in the UK, many of them are pretty conservative so once they move away from the identity politics peddled by the left they break to the right. IMO part of the reason the left are so resistant to integration of immigrants into western society is because the cultures that have integrated no longer vote for leftist parties in such large proportions. Multiculturalism allows the left to continue their identity politics game and push their "immigrants vs natives" agenda to win votes.
Poor, poor result for Hilary. 8 years ago she beat Obama in this State and Sanders sure isn't any Obama. If she doesn't lift her game soon there is going to be outright panic on the Democratic side.
On the republican side the Corbyn analogy continues to hold good. While all the minor candidates work furiously against each other trying to present themselves as "the" challenger the Donald sails out of sight. To put this into perspective he got as many votes as Cruz, Rubio and Bush put together.
Will it now be Kasich's brief moment in the sun? I seriously doubt it. He is far, far too liberal for the Republican party once the voting moves out of the north east. Just maybe the field will thin now and there will be a better prospect of the anti Donald's coalescing but he must be the very strong favourite.
Bernie v The Donald it looks like.
Donald looks like he should be odds on for sure. Don't know about Bernie, if he can take Nevada or South Carolina, he can dream a dream.
Hilary is very poor , she comes across exactly like the recent Labour donkeys, no policies or principles, just spouting the same platitudes as ever. Looks like she will suffer the same fate as them and be beaten by a no hoper.
Hilary is the Ed Miliband of US politics - over promoted because of family ties.
I think Trump wins hands down against Sanders. Not least of which because Bloomberg would probably intervene, but also Trump stands a good chance direct.
Sanders is a socialist. Americans really don't like socialism.
The polling shows Sanders often leading Trump for now and if anything Bloomberg helps Sanders, Sanders will also have the young and female and minority vote behind him while Trump has white males. The left will call Trump a Fascist as often as the right call Sanders a socialist
Do they? I've seen head to head polls with Trump clearly beating Sanders.
Anyway, I don't believe it. Trump is a lot of hair, air and wind but he's not a total nutter. I expect he's mainly fart and no follow through. The Republican establishment certainly think they can work with him.
Sanders OTOH is deadly serious.
Sanders leads Trump in the RCP poll average at the moment. The GOP establishment may prefer Trump to Cruz but only just
I do wonder if Trump is a better politician than we realise.
While I don't want to blow his trumpet, he has proved adept at keeping himself and his message above all rivals in the contest so far. His delivery of sound bite is as good as any other candidate (of either party).
He is fresh to the political arena, which allows him much more leeway for flip flopping on policy and ideas. He isn't tied to historical baggage and may well amend his message a bit for the audience listening to him, which in a diovers country such as USA is a useful attribute.
He is not a retread or long term political operator, which is popular in an anti politics environment.
He may trail HRC or Bernie, but he isn't fighting them right now. I would be shocked if he didn't have some effective material for either. Imagine HRC in her emotionless sincerity in a head to head with the Donald. I can see how he would unsettle her in several ways whilst lampooning her political life as narrow and disconnected from reality in a slightly non PC way.
I'm not a Donald fan, but I suspect he is a formidable and resourceful opponent. I'm sure he can fight as dirty as any other politician as well. He comes over as authentic - he isn't going to moderate what he says, Bernie also has authenticity, but I don't get that from HRC.
Interesting point in the Sanders win is that enthused non-voters can actually turn out in large numbers - may be a warning for UK pollsters not to assume that young people don't bother when it comes to it.
They'll turn out for Bernie Nick, I'm afraid Corbyn just isn't as cool as the Vermont Senator. I have Bernie alot better and agree with @MalcolmG on Hilary.
What Bernie might have done in New Hampshire (And this is important for betting purposes) is perhaps secured the DEM nomination if anything happens to Hilary.
The other difference is that our electorates are much smaller. Getting more votes in university seats, for example, won't help Lab much as they already hold most of them
He may trail HRC or Bernie, but he isn't fighting them right now. I would be shocked if he didn't have some effective material for either. Imagine HRC in her emotionless sincerity in a head to head with the Donald. I can see how he would unsettle her in several ways whilst lampooning her political life as narrow and disconnected from reality in a slightly non PC way.
I'm not a Donald fan, but I suspect he is a formidable and resourceful opponent. I'm sure he can fight as dirty as any other politician as well. He comes over as authentic - he isn't going to moderate what he says, Bernie also has authenticity, but I don't get that from HRC.
If the contest comes down to the Donald vs Hillary it will be very interesting to see whether it brings out the pre-machine politician version of Hillary. Back in the days when she really did inspire a lot of people she was a very different creature.
He may trail HRC or Bernie, but he isn't fighting them right now. I would be shocked if he didn't have some effective material for either. Imagine HRC in her emotionless sincerity in a head to head with the Donald. I can see how he would unsettle her in several ways whilst lampooning her political life as narrow and disconnected from reality in a slightly non PC way.
I'm not a Donald fan, but I suspect he is a formidable and resourceful opponent. I'm sure he can fight as dirty as any other politician as well. He comes over as authentic - he isn't going to moderate what he says, Bernie also has authenticity, but I don't get that from HRC.
If the contest comes down to the Donald vs Hillary it will be very interesting to see whether it brings out the pre-machine politician version of Hillary. Back in the days when she really did inspire a lot of people she was a very different creature.
Massive amounts of student debt are giving Bernie rocket boosters with the young in the US.
The drug war in Mexico, and huge amounts that come over the border helps Trump and to some degree Cruz on the republican side. They are way more hard line on Mexico than the others.
Massive amounts of student debt are giving Bernie rocket boosters with the young in the US.
The drug war in Mexico, and huge amounts that come over the border helps Trump and to some degree Cruz on the republican side. They are way more hard line on Mexico than the others.
You make it sound like the Trump and Cruz campaigns are being funded by drug money!
So does that mean that Trump has the likes of Texas in the bag?
Where did Hillary screw up vs Bernie? I can't quite believe he did so well. He's such an old hippy pinko.
Have you actually seen Hilary deliver a speech ?
All A fair chunk of Bernie's stuff - the "Wall St speculation tax" for instance, what even is that ? is for sure populist leftism but Monkier has nailed it:
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
Massive amounts of student debt are giving Bernie rocket boosters with the young in the US.
The drug war in Mexico, and huge amounts that come over the border helps Trump and to some degree Cruz on the republican side. They are way more hard line on Mexico than the others.
You make it sound like the Trump and Cruz campaigns are being funded by drug money!
So does that mean that Trump has the likes of Texas in the bag?
Texas will be hard fought but ultimately I think they will plump for their own senator.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
Poor, poor result for Hilary. 8 years ago she beat Obama in this State and Sanders sure isn't any Obama. If she doesn't lift her game soon there is going to be outright panic on the Democratic side.
On the republican side the Corbyn analogy continues to hold good. While all the minor candidates work furiously against each other trying to present themselves as "the" challenger the Donald sails out of sight. To put this into perspective he got as many votes as Cruz, Rubio and Bush put together.
Will it now be Kasich's brief moment in the sun? I seriously doubt it. He is far, far too liberal for the Republican party once the voting moves out of the north east. Just maybe the field will thin now and there will be a better prospect of the anti Donald's coalescing but he must be the very strong favourite.
Bernie v The Donald it looks like.
Donald looks like he should be odds on for sure. Don't know about Bernie, if he can take Nevada or South Carolina, he can dream a dream.
Hilary is very poor , she comes across exactly like the recent Labour donkeys, no policies or principles, just spouting the same platitudes as ever. Looks like she will suffer the same fate as them and be beaten by a no hoper.
Hilary is the Ed Miliband of US politics - over promoted because of family ties.
Where did Hillary screw up vs Bernie? I can't quite believe he did so well. He's such an old hippy pinko.
Have you actually seen Hilary deliver a speech ?
Sanders would fit just fine into our Old Labour tradition. Of course, that's a very weird place for a serious US Presidential candidate to be coming from.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
I suppose it's another manifestation of the trend for 'safe spaces'. Heaven forfend we have to meet or even interact with people with whom we disagree. I can't decide if it's sad, pathetic or both.
The Times says 28% of Labour supporters would be unhappy if their child married a Tory up from 19% In 2008 while nearly 20% of Tories would be unhappy if their child married a Labour supporter up from 10% in 2008
Despite my last comment, there is a minority of people who are passionate about politics. I lost a couple of friends when I joined UKIP (most don't care).
It's not just a matter of caring about politics though is it? It's - I don't know - an inability to compartmentalise? Or just that people take themselves (not politics itself) too seriously.
Spot on. A friend of mine is a Conservative Councillor, yesterday he said that Trump doesn't have the intellect to be President, what he means is that he disagrees with him.
Where did Hillary screw up vs Bernie? I can't quite believe he did so well. He's such an old hippy pinko.
Have you actually seen Hilary deliver a speech ?
All A fair chunk of Bernie's stuff - the "Wall St speculation tax" for instance, what even is that ? is for sure populist leftism but Monkier has nailed it:
Thought I saw research indicating Hispanics are trending rightwards. Is this accurate?
I think it is too simplistic to lump all Hispanics into a single group. A bit like lumping all "Asian" voters together in the UK. In America, for instance Cubans until Obama had been overwhelmingly "conservative" in their voting.
Kind of on topic, I find that I'm now wary of betting against Bush. Sure, fourth is nothing much but surely he's now the most viable candidate after Trump and Cruz and he has huge resources.
This is assuming Christie is dropping out, Rubio is a burst bubble and Kasich won't fly in the South.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
Seems like silver haired politics are now in fashion (OK, so I don't know what colour The Donald's hair actually is. Suspect that his barber doesn't know either Just for fun, I'm thinking about putting some money on David Davis being the next leader of the Tories. Seems there maybe a GE this year, if the rumour mill can be believed, that there are 5 conservative mp's being investigated with pretty cast iron cases against them. (But then again we do know about cast iron guarantees and the Tory leadership promises) Plus the 2 (or possibly more) SNP mp's in trouble... Could be a more interesting year than thought possible a month or so ago.
They are taking a very long time to find anything wrong/ interview the SNP MP's. Looks like as suspected it was just unionist hot air lying and sour grapes.
Where did Hillary screw up vs Bernie? I can't quite believe he did so well. He's such an old hippy pinko.
Have you actually seen Hilary deliver a speech ?
All A fair chunk of Bernie's stuff - the "Wall St speculation tax" for instance, what even is that ? is for sure populist leftism but Monkier has nailed it:
Surely it is time for the Democrats to draft Joe Biden. I have bet on him at 40 to 1 and that was weeks ago. I don't think that Hillary Clinton would beat Bill Cosby on present form. She is so last decade. She may as well have "Yesterday" as her campaign song.
Thought I saw research indicating Hispanics are trending rightwards. Is this accurate?
I think it is too simplistic to lump all Hispanics into a single group. A bit like lumping all "Asian" voters together in the UK. In America, for instance Cubans until Obama had been overwhelmingly "conservative" in their voting.
In particular, those from Cuba are concerned about the particular issues around that island, whereas those from Mexico and elsewhere probably are not. Aiui, Cuban issues are most prominent in Florida, where Bush and Rubio are from.
Mr. Pulpstar, fish is good for the brain, and for a healthy pregnancy. And that's before we start genetically engineering them into an invincible amphibious army.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
Quite telling that Conservatives are much happier to marry people with opposing views than Labour supporters. Lefties are much less comfortable having their views challenged and see themselves as "right" and righteous, they would much rather ensure their friends (and lovers) are all like minded than have someone challenge them.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
Quite telling that Conservatives are much happier to marry people with opposing views than Labour supporters. Lefties are much less comfortable having their views challenged and see themselves as "right" and righteous, they would much rather ensure their friends (and lovers) are all like minded than have someone challenge them.
One of those fact of life such as bears antics in woods. Labour hard liners are more likely to be bigoted people.
Surely it is time for the Democrats to draft Joe Biden. I have bet on him at 40 to 1 and that was weeks ago. I don't think that Hillary Clinton would beat Bill Cosby on present form. She is so last decade. She may as well have "Yesterday" as her campaign song.
Biden was poor the last time he ran. Even Hillary beat him. There is no obvious reason to suppose he has improved in the mean time.
An interesting set of results from NH and not that far out of line with some people's expectations so I hope those who traded on these hints got a good profit.
On the Democrat side, the Sanders win was pretty much as expected - whether he can replicate that in SC remains to be seen. Fascinating to see such a strong anti-Clinton undertone among some of the Conservatives on here this morning. Is this because of her apparent closeness to David Miliband or something else ? History tells us the Americans really appreciate the British blundering around in their politics.
The GOP side has, if anything, become more confused by NH. Trump did about as expected though very slightly flattering to deceive but the win was unequivocal and he remains the favourite to get the nomination and rightly so.
Kasich, as some on here wisely opined, came out of the pack to finish a moderate second but whether he can sustain this elsewhere is debatable. Cruz did well enough to stay in and SC will be better for him - he's probably quite happy with third.
Bush probably did well enough to hang on but this wasn't the breakthrough for him while it was a poor night for Rubio - blame the debate performance or blame other things but he now faces a real fight to stay above the pack. I suspect for Christie, Fiorina and Carson that's the end of the line.
So Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Bush to SC and then, I believe, NV. The inability of the anti-Trump GOP vote to coalesce around a single candidate strengthens the Donald immeasurably.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
Quite telling that Conservatives are much happier to marry people with opposing views than Labour supporters. Lefties are much less comfortable having their views challenged and see themselves as "right" and righteous, they would much rather ensure their friends (and lovers) are all like minded than have someone challenge them.
Don't you know, since Corbyn election, unless you are a hard left type, we are all Tories now...
RUBIO RISING ...the real message to come out of Iowa is the rise of Marco Rubio ..in the next seven days before NH he is sure to get a blaze of endorsements from big donors like Sheldon Aldenson and big names like Romney and McCain ...it's not over yet but the writing is clearly on the wall for anyone paying attention
Rubio will now unify the establishment lane and steamroll to victory ; he will win NH and Nevada too .....this has been on the cards for months and would have been clear to anyone able to read between the lines
RUBIO WILL BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT .....frame this comment for posterity
There is no way Rubio is odds on GOP favourite, he polled third and came third. The real winner of the night is Cruz who is now Trump's main rival for the nomination. Unless Rubio beats Trump in New Hampshire or at least beats Cruz for second place he will be running for the bronze medal
You are a bloody fool ; I have been predicting for months that Rubio will not only become the nominee , but will CRUSH Hillary
It will not even dawn upon you that Rubio has won the presidency until he's in the White House with his feet upon the desk smoking a victory cigar ...get a clue Sherlock !
I am awaiting Cromwell's next post with eager anticipation.
RUBIO RISING ...the real message to come out of Iowa is the rise of Marco Rubio ..in the next seven days before NH he is sure to get a blaze of endorsements from big donors like Sheldon Aldenson and big names like Romney and McCain ...it's not over yet but the writing is clearly on the wall for anyone paying attention
Rubio will now unify the establishment lane and steamroll to victory ; he will win NH and Nevada too .....this has been on the cards for months and would have been clear to anyone able to read between the lines
RUBIO WILL BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT .....frame this comment for posterity
There is no way Rubio is odds on GOP favourite, he polled third and came third. The real winner of the night is Cruz who is now Trump's main rival for the nomination. Unless Rubio beats Trump in New Hampshire or at least beats Cruz for second place he will be running for the bronze medal
You are a bloody fool ; I have been predicting for months that Rubio will not only become the nominee , but will CRUSH Hillary
It will not even dawn upon you that Rubio has won the presidency until he's in the White House with his feet upon the desk smoking a victory cigar ...get a clue Sherlock !
I am awaiting Cromwell's next post with eager anticipation.
Surely it is time for the Democrats to draft Joe Biden. I have bet on him at 40 to 1 and that was weeks ago. I don't think that Hillary Clinton would beat Bill Cosby on present form. She is so last decade. She may as well have "Yesterday" as her campaign song.
Biden was poor the last time he ran. Even Hillary beat him. There is no obvious reason to suppose he has improved in the mean time.
He has been vice-president for 7 years. One would suppose that anyone would learn something about being president from holding that post, or else it rather defeats the point of having a vice-president.
Surely it is time for the Democrats to draft Joe Biden. I have bet on him at 40 to 1 and that was weeks ago. I don't think that Hillary Clinton would beat Bill Cosby on present form. She is so last decade. She may as well have "Yesterday" as her campaign song.
Biden was poor the last time he ran. Even Hillary beat him. There is no obvious reason to suppose he has improved in the mean time.
He has been vice-president for 7 years. One would suppose that anyone would learn something about being president from holding that post, or else it rather defeats the point of having a vice-president.
Either way, it is irrelevant. The question is whether he has become a better campaigner.
Comments
Not sure about Academy schools.
Trump is a more effective speaker - not by traditional standards of a coherent narrative, but in mastery of soundbites that hit the headlines. Clinton is technically the best of the three, with well-constructed speeches, but too much like 100 other politicians.
And Kasich - such a nice man, and that counts in the US even more than elsewhere. But it's hard to see him winning, as he disagrees with the GOP voters on so much - the first closed primary (SC?) where independents can't come in will really test him.
Profitable night for me, mostly because of £50 on Kasich 2nd with Ladbrokes at 5-4 - thanks to Pulpstar for pointing it out.
I think I can safely say that I know how @HillaryClinton is feeling this morning.
What Bernie might have done in New Hampshire (And this is important for betting purposes) is perhaps secured the DEM nomination if anything happens to Hilary.
Trump 2.48-2.6
Rubio 4.3-4.5
Cruz 5.6-5.8
Bush 6.6-7.4
So Cruz is back to the price I originally backed him at. He's my only bet of any significance in the US Presidential markets.
While I don't want to blow his trumpet, he has proved adept at keeping himself and his message above all rivals in the contest so far. His delivery of sound bite is as good as any other candidate (of either party).
He is fresh to the political arena, which allows him much more leeway for flip flopping on policy and ideas. He isn't tied to historical baggage and may well amend his message a bit for the audience listening to him, which in a diovers country such as USA is a useful attribute.
He is not a retread or long term political operator, which is popular in an anti politics environment.
He may trail HRC or Bernie, but he isn't fighting them right now. I would be shocked if he didn't have some effective material for either. Imagine HRC in her emotionless sincerity in a head to head with the Donald. I can see how he would unsettle her in several ways whilst lampooning her political life as narrow and disconnected from reality in a slightly non PC way.
I'm not a Donald fan, but I suspect he is a formidable and resourceful opponent. I'm sure he can fight as dirty as any other politician as well. He comes over as authentic - he isn't going to moderate what he says, Bernie also has authenticity, but I don't get that from HRC.
I think he tested for two teams last year when someone (maybe Rosberg) was a bit under the weather.
https://www.google.it/search?q=karsh+churchill&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-it&client=safari#imgrc=OyeNNiNbe4LvyM:
Sanders looks benignly demented and silly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_fZfX0fOIA
The drug war in Mexico, and huge amounts that come over the border helps Trump and to some degree Cruz on the republican side. They are way more hard line on Mexico than the others.
The pair of them are so unappealing. The Dems are really short of candidates.
So does that mean that Trump has the likes of Texas in the bag?
[edit] @MonikerDiCanio - snap.
Labour voters (28%) more upset by child marrying a Tory, than Conservatives (19%) in the opposite position, with London Labour (33%) the most upset of all.....
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/36ehbscxjo/YouGov-The Times Results - Marrying different political persuasions - 160122.pdf
I'm sure there is a law about molesting dead smoked fish somewhere on the statute book.
I suppose it's another manifestation of the trend for 'safe spaces'. Heaven forfend we have to meet or even interact with people with whom we disagree. I can't decide if it's sad, pathetic or both.
I guess the British equivalent would be 'who would you like a drink with'.....Cameron (for his flaws) had that one over Ed by a country mile.
Who you ask...Well he is lots of T20 experience...he bowled just five overs in last year's T20 Blast competition.
This is assuming Christie is dropping out, Rubio is a burst bubble and Kasich won't fly in the South.
us fish are mad about such fishisms.
Awkward....A bit like expenses scandal, I think we can probably suspect they are all at it.
Enjoy!
Current best odds to back on Betfair for RepNom (for more than tuppence ha'penny):
Trump 2.48
Rubio 4.3
Cruz 5.7
Bush 7.0
Those odds look pretty much spot-on to me now. Maybe Rubio is still a bit short.
The BBC calls it for Ernie Saunders.
An interesting set of results from NH and not that far out of line with some people's expectations so I hope those who traded on these hints got a good profit.
On the Democrat side, the Sanders win was pretty much as expected - whether he can replicate that in SC remains to be seen. Fascinating to see such a strong anti-Clinton undertone among some of the Conservatives on here this morning. Is this because of her apparent closeness to David Miliband or something else ? History tells us the Americans really appreciate the British blundering around in their politics.
The GOP side has, if anything, become more confused by NH. Trump did about as expected though very slightly flattering to deceive but the win was unequivocal and he remains the favourite to get the nomination and rightly so.
Kasich, as some on here wisely opined, came out of the pack to finish a moderate second but whether he can sustain this elsewhere is debatable. Cruz did well enough to stay in and SC will be better for him - he's probably quite happy with third.
Bush probably did well enough to hang on but this wasn't the breakthrough for him while it was a poor night for Rubio - blame the debate performance or blame other things but he now faces a real fight to stay above the pack. I suspect for Christie, Fiorina and Carson that's the end of the line.
So Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Bush to SC and then, I believe, NV. The inability of the anti-Trump GOP vote to coalesce around a single candidate strengthens the Donald immeasurably.
Trump and Rubio prices broadly in line
Cruz is 4.3 on PredictIT and 5.7 on Betfair
http://capx.co/if-nigel-farage-leads-leave-it-looks-like-curtains-for-brexit/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rising-sea-levels-leave-just-161148572.html
glug glug glug for London. Are they employing the same advisors as Project Fear/Remain?
After everything I've ever learned
Me, I carry too much baggage
Oh man I've seen so much traffic
Quick late night breakdown - how @google searches for #NHPrimary candidates compare to votes tonight.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca1e8foVIAA5IGP.png
Probably a coincidence, but still, the correlation is striking.