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Des Moines Register Iowa Poll
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I'm in America during the Iowa caucus and won't be able to bet.
Clinton can lose the first two and sweep to the nomination. I'll only take Sanders seriously if he can challenge in states like South Carolina.
With the DMR poll I will caution 2 things:
1. Most of it was conducted before the GOP debate debacle.
2. All of it was conducted before the fresh Hillary email scandal news that's all around the media since yesterday.
Trump leading by a margin of 5 must be just secure enough for him to win, regardless of the risks from 1.
Hillary leading by a margin of 3, with O'Malley having 3 leaves her vulnerable from 2 and the second round system of the Dem caucus.
So far what we see is the undecideds breaking for Trump, Cruz leaking a bit to Rubio, while the undecideds breaking equally for Hillary and Sanders.
Sanders still needs a swing of 1.5-2% for him to win.
I give the odds right now for Iowa:
Trump 80%
Cruz 20%
Hillary 60%
Sanders 40%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/25/your-real-time-iowa-caucus-weather-tracker/?postshare=4391453753657190&tid=ss_tw
Light snow everywhere, temperatures just above freezing.
None of that could prepare me for the weirdness of Trump as POTUS
Trump maybe the most hated man in america, but Hillary is the most hated woman in america.
If it's Trump VS Hillary it will be too close too call, since Trump is the media master and Hillary is one FBI investigation away from jail.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/donald-trump-timeline.html?mid=twitter_nymag
First time that Trump appeared in the media was at the opening of Studio 54 in 1977.
Just 34% of caucus Dems will be first time, was 60% in 2008
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY
Checked Des Moines, Orange City and Dubuque.
Slightly wilder prediction, Rubio could come second? I get the feeling Cruz's flop in the debate the other day might be really puncturing him.
Betfair seems to be acting like Cruz will finish behind Rubio already though, which seems crackers to me.
The Trump -12 might well lose to Rubio though which means @rcs1000 will win that bet !
Trump 27 Cruz 23 Rubio 19
Can see it ending something like that.
I have a theory that as there is no such thing as a full back that can defend anymore, within a year most teams will be playing a variation of 3-5-2.
Trump is much more of a moderate on social issues (immigration exempted) and has economic policies that are actually popular, his problem though is his persona.
Trump went from 20% favourables, 60% unfavourables at the beginning of his campaign to 60 favourables and 20 unfavourables now with republicans, can he replicate that with the G.E. electorate?
Since he has total dominance of the media, he can try.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1662933.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
In our 1st choice starting 11 we have a very good side. Still 9.8 on Betfair for the title.
This argument is ludicrous.
TSE thinks the Leave campaign is rubbish, with idiots like Pritchard I'm not sure they need to do anything. Every single argument I have seen for staying in is preposterous, from Rose's dodgy maths, to Clegg saying Turkey must be allowed to join, to rubbish like this.
Remain are doing the Leave work for them.
None of this hides the reality that grammar schools will boost social mobility!
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/
"Rubio is up 3 percentage points since early January. But there's no indication of a surge: His support declined during the four days of polling."
"Trump leads both with Iowans who say they’ll definitely vote and those who will probably vote. “Turnout seems not to affect him," Selzer said. "Either way, he seems on solid ground.”
Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump has a 16-point lead. But the universe of experienced caucusgoers is bigger, where Cruz has a 3-point lead."
"This poll shows 47 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers identify themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians. Entrance polling four years ago measured 57 percent.
When Selzer rejiggered the new Iowa Poll results to reflect a hypothetical 60 percent evangelical turnout, the race tightens: Trump gets 26 percent of their support, and Cruz gets 25 percent."
" 50 percent of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be most feared by enemies of the United States. Twenty-one percent name Cruz. Rubio is viewed as an amateur in this area, with only 5 percent."
"But now, even in King's congressional district, where social conservatives dominate and Trump has visited just three times, Trump is up by 1 point. Cruz, in contrast, has stopped in every county in the state."
"If the race eventually comes down to two Republicans, 53 percent say they would prefer Cruz as the nominee, not Trump. Just 35 percent would choose Trump in a one-on-one contest with Cruz."
"Forty-six percent of likely caucusgoers say they don’t care that he boycotted Fox News’ event, the final match-up before the vote.
Just 29 percent say they disapprove, while 24 approve of Trump's choice, which was announced the day this poll went into the field."
"Eleven percent say Branstad's opposition makes them less likely to support Cruz, but that's balanced by the 11 percent who say they're actually more likely to back Cruz thanks to Branstad."
"Among those who could still be persuaded to pick a different candidate, it’s a very close race, with Cruz leading, then Trump and Rubio right behind."
He maybe from Cuba, his father may have been a bartender once, but no one will vote for him based on that.
He's a paper candidate, as I warned before about Christie, Kasish and Bush when they where shooting up in the betting markets, if people had only listened to me they wouldn't have lost lots of money betting on those paper candidates (like TSE has).
I have close, if not at, 100% accuracy rates on my US politics predictions, unlike some esteemed members of the media and punditocracy , if only certain major publications had been so prescient as to avoid the egg on their faces, but talents like mine are scarce.
Enough bragging though, goodnight.
You were probably right Trump will win the nomination, that does not mean he will win the general
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
For example the Iraq war where Chirac and Schroeder's strategic clumsiness in calling it a dangerous folly was countered by Britain's far-sightedness?
Wow. And the saddest campaign this season keeps trudging along.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/31/observer-view-on-corporate-tax-google
Well the Guardian should know....
A Labour MP has been asked by David Cameron to examine why black offenders are more likely to be jailed than white offenders in English and Welsh courts.
Downing Street said 61% of BAME defendants found guilty in crown courts were given custodial sentences, compared with 56% of white offenders.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35452975
Could he not find somebody who wasn't a blinkered moron to conduct this review? Also that is a meaningless statistic without context of what ratio of crimes different ethnicity are being charged with e.g. I think we will find that number of Muslims charged with drink driving might be rather on the low side, but rather greater for terrorism related offenses than in comparison to the stats for white people.
Guardian uses Google search.
Will be interesting to see what the EU does about the various 0% Carribean islands though, could be a massive boon for Ireland potentially. That ain't helping the UK tho.
Although I don't agree with all his proposed solutions in 'out of the ashes', he's at least got a good initial grasp of the problems.
As an example:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/listen_again/newsid_8567000/8567651.stm
Guardian uses tax avoidance.
http://tinyurl.com/zxmxlpv
"But whether Phillips was right or wrong to draw parallels between the scenes in Cologne over new year and on Britain’s city centres on a Friday and Saturday night, the instant attempt to shout Phillips down has sparked its own row."
"Catherine Mayer, author and co-founder and president of the Women’s Equality Party, said she was struck by how the slight fumble in Phillips’s point had allowed her critics to close down the MP’s argument."
“Jess Phillips’s reply on Question Time suffered from over-compression, but she was clearly trying to make a legitimate point, that violence and harassment against women and girls is sadly not exceptional or limited to one group or type of perpetrator or to one situation,” Mayer said.
So Phillips is now the victim. And WTF is "over-compression"?
http://order-order.com/2012/11/26/the-guardians-offshore-secrets-guardian-media-group-still-operates-caymans-company/
As always with the more sanctimonious lefties, it's the blatant hypocrisy.
It wouldn't be an issue if they put a declaration of interest under every article about tax avoidance and if other media organisations (BBC) made a point of calling them out on it. As it is, it's the elephant in the room that no-one mentions, they hope that only the few who read eg. Private Eye and Guido know anything about it.
Islamist activists linked to Cage, a group known to sympathise with terrorists, are using coordinated leaks to mainstream news organisations, including the BBC, to spread fear and confusion in Muslim communities about the Government’s anti-terror policy, Prevent.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/12132054/Organised-campaign-to-hobble-anti-terror-fight.html
Its funny how McMao's best buddies always seem to have their fingers in so many pies.
In no way are they behaving in a manner that is conducive to the public good, and they are determined to portray every effort the government makes to undermine terrorism as somehow racist or anti-Islamic.
The U.K. really needs to stop pandering to the sensitivities of those who wish to abolish the British democracy in favour of some Caphiliate. Their behaviour is no less than treasonous.
The arguments to Remain are pretty poor, but will probably be effective to the large chunk of voters who really haven't got a clue.
You may feel that is a theoretical distinction but she clearly doesn't. I have to say although I'm dubious about her actual point - I don't think misogyny and sexual violence are causally linked at all, indeed having studied the hippy movement I would say the opposite is true - I didn't think your summary was accurate either.
EDIT - I also agree with @Innocent_Abroad.
Trump's success seems incredible. As does Corbyn's.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3424549/Camerons-enter-son-London-private-school-Eton-educated-PM-considers-prestigious-18-000-year-prep-10-year-old-Elwen-despite-sending-daughter-state-school-calling-fees-crazy.html
So having cancelled out the biases on personality, we can now all vote on the issues?
Oooh, look at that flying pig going over the Chase...
When three wise monkeys became a group of useful, and dangerous, idiots.
@afneil: Over 800 women reported sex assaults in one night in Cologne. Five reported sex assaults in Brum's Broad Street in 12 weeks 2/2
He's right. Worst remain argument was the claim all those Indians gave lives for EU during the war!
On the other hand the leave people seem more intent on attacking each other then running a campaign.
On the other hand the leave people seem more intent on attacking each other then running a campaign.
"Worst remain argument was the claim all those Indians gave lives for EU during the war!"
Yeah that was a certain D.Lammy... amazing where incompetence gets you when your face fits.
I suppose he proved his loyalty to Dave along with his ability to talk utter nonsense with a straight face that day and got the gig
I think we should therefore be fairly careful about making assumptions about cultural conditioning and which way it cuts. Yes, people will point out Rotherham and Cologne. To which I would answer (although not strictly related to my earlier point) Leicester and Islington. That was bound up in the gay rights movement, and to a lesser extent the wider sexual liberation movements, which paedophiles cleverly exploited for their own ends.
Anyway, while that is a criticism of Cyclefree's point, I am pleased to see you have accepted that your original posting was clumsy, so I don't see much need to labour the point.
PB really liked Jess when she was being OTT aggressive to Corbyn and Abbott, but have gone right off her now she's been OTT in another context (clearly she's right that migrants didn't invent sexual harassment, but equally clearly the Koln group were at a different level of nastiness). That's the sort of reaction which makes MPs stick to bland and meaningless phrases. A few MPs who don't consider every sentence carefully before uttering it are probably a good thing - the right reaction is to say oi, you're exaggerating there, and move on.
The London local elections of 2014 gave Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem, Green, and UKIP 10% each.
RIP.
As others have suggested, you may well have had some solid points to counter her overall argument, but your précis is not a fair representation at all, it is simplified to the point of being misleading, which undermined your legitimate points. Those missing words innocent abroad mentions are crucial - even if you believe someone's disclaimers are false, if you ignore them, present their view as less nuanced than is in fact the case, they can easily dismiss your points.
It's a very politician like thing actually - act like somebody said something else and attack that, or that what they meant was not what they said,
I've certainly seen people use the same tactic against you however. Weve all done it at some point
On the other hand the leave people seem more intent on attacking each other then running a campaign.
Yep, both sides are a complete mess. There are good arguments to be made for both staying in the EU and for leaving the EU - but with a couple of exceptions those are not what is being heard at the moment.
Hopefully when the referendum is actually called and people understand what they are voting for, we might see well argued points come to the fore on both sides. Not betting my mortgage on it though.
The media also need to step up and call out the obvious rubbish, rather than allowing it to go unchallenged as at the moment. "3 million jobs" is an obvious untruth, as is the idea that we would immediately agree free trade deals with the US and Commonwealth if we left.
Cultural conditioning and norms play a vast part in regulating human behaviour. Which is precisely why the Aparteid version of Multiculturalism (each community having a different and language, kept "pure") is doomed to failiure. Unless you think that the former Yugoslavia is an archetype....