@davidtorrance: Although I still have a feeling we've heard all this before, there's (modest) evidence of a (modest) Tory revival: https://t.co/rL1lvbvaZY
Torrance is such an odious balloon, why is he always in media pontificating. He indeed looks like your average nasty Tory wimp and certainly talks the bollox but surely they have better fan boys than him.
You really should read articles before hitting the 'bile button':
But if there is a Scottish Tory revival it’ll be a modest one. Ms Davidson’s target is to win more MSPs than ever before, which would mean 19 – only four more than it has at present. Overtaking Scottish Labour remains unlikely, and even if that did happen, Conservatives would find themselves up against the all-conquering Nationalists. Nevertheless, over the next 12 months Ms Davidson will be as central to Scottish Conservative strategy as Nicola Sturgeon is to the SNP’s
I've just been reading about the ex copper and Liberal candidate Brian Paddick, he's been to court accusing a cabbie of calling him a faggot, the cabbie says Paddick called him fat.
This is what we've come to, grown men clogging up courts and costing us money over some ridiculous name calling. Jail them both for wasting police time.
I don't know why any public figure appears in these programmes. They end up looking stupid.
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
The votes in Scotland and Wales will be put down to local factors, and to an extent, rightly so. The voters there are not voting for or against Corbyn (nor, yet, his candidates). Unlike many English council elections, they are increasingly seen as elections in their own right rather than as proxy opinion polls for Westminster. Furthermore, there are good reasons in both Scotland and Wales why Labour might do poorly.
Of course, the Labour right might try to move anyway, and the English council elections may be poor as well - which would be harder to write off - but the Corbynites have their excuses ready.
The key election is London. If Khan loses then the electoral case against Corbyn is powerful; if he wins, losses elsewhere will be forgotten.
If SK loses the Mayoralty, Labour activists will write it off as racism.
The lack of clear beliefs as to the way ahead was painfully apparent in the recent leadership contest. Only Yvette Cooper had the outline of a coherent vision and that much too late in the day. Those that backed Liz Kendall, including the estimable Hopi Sen frankly embarrassed themselves.
We are having all the usual nonsense being trailed out about Osborne this morning but the fact remains that the deficit is now approaching 1/3 of what he inherited as a share of GDP. Much of that has come from tax increases such as VAT and some has come from the economic cycle but he has massively slowed the increase in public spending with brutal cuts in the unprotected areas. The fact that the job is not done and that "austerity" still has a long way to go is a major problem for the right wing of the Labour party.
Labour need to find a philosophy and purpose that is not linked to spending significant additional sums of public money. In my opinion the obvious answer is equality of opportunity. Educational performance in this country is shamefully correlated to economic status. That needs to change. The way that ZHC employees are treated is a disgrace. The defanging of the ET system with fees has greatly encouraged this abuse. Our banking sector remains too big to fail, uncompetitive and abuses the consumer.
Behind all this though is a bigger point. Labour used to have no problem with aspiration, achievement and success. Now there seems to be a hostility to such ideas and a desire to maintain the poor in their current circumstances by protecting their existing benefits, housing, entitlements etc even when they are trapping them in a life of poverty. If the Labour right can articulate the idea of a more egalitarian society which also celebrates success it could become a political force again.
I do have a theory about Labour and aspiration. That may be the subject of a thread at a later date.
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
Labour are defending 11 out of 16 seats in Reading, 13/18 in Southampton, 12/19 in Plymouth, 9/12 in NE Lincolnshire, 11/14 in Cannock Chase, 6/10 in Tamworth, 12/17 in Ipswich, 14/17 in Nuneaton, 9/13 in Great Yarmouth, etc, etc.
Interesting article. Some supplementary comments from someone who supports Jeremy but has friends across the party.
1. Most Labour MPs and most members (including many of the new ones) are not tribal leftists or rightists or centrists. They want Labour to stand for something interesting and what they think of as progressive, and they want leading figures to be reasonably loyal and friendly to each other in public and especially in the media. Everyone likes Liz Kendall because she said what she thinks honestly without a hint of personal malice, indeed with open affection to Jeremy. I won't give a counter-example but there are figures who exasperate unaligned moderates by constant bitching.
2. Specifically, high-profile bitching between now and May will not be forgotten or forgiven, and any bad results will be quite explicitly blamed on those who do it, by members who are not on the left.
3. Deselections per se will be rare - you have to be a really bad local MP not to be on fairly affectionate terms with members, and there is not an ideological majority who will say "We like you but you've got to go because your views on Trident are unsound". However, the boundary changes mean that a fair number of MPs will be partly dependent on people who don't know them. Coupled with retirements, it's likely that the PLP will move left.
4. A clear distinction is drawn between people who set out an alternative agenda and people who focus on attacking the current agenda. Benn's speech is the way to do it - sure, unilateralists didn't like it, but nobody is really holding it against him. People who consistently set out clear alternatives will gradually move into the frame as possible future leaders. They don't need to go on about why they don't like what we've got now - people take that as read if they're proposing something different.
5. In doing that, don't rely on the Tory media. They like splits and fights, they are bored by positive agendas. That's why Hunt isn't getting much coverage. Persevere nonetheless - consistent articles and speeches will filter through. You don't want to be the Daily Mail lead story - you want pieces in the Guardian and the Mirror and speeches to the Fabian Society.
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
Labour are defending 11 out of 16 seats in Reading, 13/18 in Southampton, 12/19 in Plymouth, 9/12 in NE Lincolnshire, 11/14 in Cannock Chase, 6/10 in Tamworth, 12/17 in Ipswich, 14/17 in Nuneaton, 9/13 in Great Yarmouth, etc, etc.
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
The votes in Scotland and Wales will be put down to local factors, and to an extent, rightly so. The voters there are not voting for or against Corbyn (nor, yet, his candidates). Unlike many English council elections, they are increasingly seen as elections in their own right rather than as proxy opinion polls for Westminster. Furthermore, there are good reasons in both Scotland and Wales why Labour might do poorly.
Of course, the Labour right might try to move anyway, and the English council elections may be poor as well - which would be harder to write off - but the Corbynites have their excuses ready.
The key election is London. If Khan loses then the electoral case against Corbyn is powerful; if he wins, losses elsewhere will be forgotten.
To the Corbynistas the loss of Scotland was evidence of what happens when 'red tories' are in charge.
It is painful how it has become a dirty word in Scotland in particular. A generation ago there was respect and admiration for those that got on, got qualifications, built careers and provided well for their family. Now they are just assumed to be selfish bastards who think they are better than those who can't be bothered. It is a deeply corrosive attitude built on cynicism, celebrity culture and ultimately hopelessness.
An egalitarian state is about good education, good training, equality of opportunity and a tilt of the tiller against vested interest and inherited advantage. It is still needed.
I might be wrong but I think the word aspiration is a pretty recent addition to the political dictionary. One might consider why it's useful life has been reltatively short.
Ukip doesn’t usually poll well with minority ethnic voters, but in a bold speech today Stephen Woolfe, Ukip’s immigration spokesman is going to argue that those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU should appeal to them directly. Minority ethnic voters are “feeling the strain” caused by migration from the EU, he believes, and they are unhappy about the way the immigration system favours EU citizens over Commonwealth citizens. This is what he told the Today programme this morning.
[Minority ethnic voters] want prosperity, they want their culture protected, they want freedom and they also want to be secure. They see the European Union as something that damages that ...
If granny wants to come over from Pakistan or India for a wedding, they have got more difficulties in terms of visas and getting visas than would a granny from either Spain or France. If you look at the black community, they are more likely to be struggling on low wages in the low skilled and unskilled areas, and that’s the area that has been affected by large-scale migration.
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
The votes in Scotland and Wales will be put down to local factors, and to an extent, rightly so. The voters there are not voting for or against Corbyn (nor, yet, his candidates). Unlike many English council elections, they are increasingly seen as elections in their own right rather than as proxy opinion polls for Westminster. Furthermore, there are good reasons in both Scotland and Wales why Labour might do poorly.
Of course, the Labour right might try to move anyway, and the English council elections may be poor as well - which would be harder to write off - but the Corbynites have their excuses ready.
The key election is London. If Khan loses then the electoral case against Corbyn is powerful; if he wins, losses elsewhere will be forgotten.
If SK loses the Mayoralty, Labour activists will write it off as racism.
That is quite possible.
Even so, it wouldn't be true. (There will no doubt be some who don't vote for him because of his race / religion but that will be true for Goldsmith too; I'd expect the net effect to be minimal). To lose in Scotland and Wales would be genuinely down to local factors. If Labour go down on all five fronts - English councils, London and PCCs - then if the Labour right don't move at that point, they never will. Indeed, they may never get the chance.
That said, if the reports of the referendum date are accurate, the Labour right - core to Remain - will have another distraction.
Pension tax relief looks to be targetted, but should be part of a wider pensions review. Further disincentives to save are not needed!
Many people pay into personal pensions only at certain points of their lives. In a 40 year career they may well only pay in for a decade or two.
In their twenties and thirties most ABC1 people will be paying off student debt, and trying to afford a home and children. It is only when in their forties and fifties that they are likely to have the income and security to pay into a private pension. For most it is not a tax dodge, it is a part of the natural economic cycle over an earning life time. Most will have been basic rate taxpayers for the previous decades and will be again in retirement.
To point out the obvious: higher rate taxpayers pay more into their pensions because they are the ones who can afford to do so!
That's exactly right.
I hasten to add that I doubt it will be the wealthiest Conservative supporters who have a problem with this. They were far more worried about things like the mansion tax.
It will be those who work hard, long hours with a lot of responsibility, and have made a lot of sacrifices along the way, to build a professional or business career that puts them in the 45-70k income bracket and are trying their best to provide for their retirement. They won't necessarily have many other assets apart from the family home and their pension pot.
Of course, they assiduously pay tax (and a lot of it) and are clearly politically expendable in the short-term, which is what makes them such a tempting target.
Cameron used to talk about standing by people who 'do the right thing'.
If that is so he should veto this.
It will be interesting to see what actually gets proposed in the Budget.
Increasing the 40% tax threshold by £10k will make anyone earning £50-100k £2k better off for example, maybe also a flat 30% relief on pension contributions will encourage saving further down the income scale - as govt will effectively top up by 10% any pension contributions by standard rate taxpayers.
He may well do that in response to political pressure. The reason he leaked this in January is because he wasn't sure how much resistance he's get so he's pressing the bruise to see how much Middle England go 'ouch'.
Regardless, I will move heaven and earth now to stop him becoming leader.
Osborne is a deeply loathable specimen. The Tories would make a terrible mistake choosing him as leader.
No doubt some cheerleader will post 'Well, who else will Conservatives vote for in GE 2020?'
'No one' will be the answer from many, with him in charge. Which is probably one of the things Labour are banking on.
Sheesh. I left Dore at 8:10 and England were three down. I pull into Manchester less than fifty minutes late and what the feck has happened ?
Seven men got out in 65 minutes, that's what happened!
This does not bode well for the Liverpool v Stoke semi tonight.
I have tickets too.
Stoke to win 6-1.
On that topic, I note that the Liverpool fan club (sorry - BBC football), have an article "can Stoke upset Liverpool in cup?". In what way would it be an upset? Liverpool are seventh in the premiership with 34 points, Stoke are ninth with 33 points; short of one of them playing Southampton, it would be hard to have two more evenly matched teams.
That sort of lazy journalism is typical of the Beeb who still seem to think, in spite of all evidence, that Liverpool are winning championships and Stoke are in League One.
Ukip doesn’t usually poll well with minority ethnic voters, but in a bold speech today Stephen Woolfe, Ukip’s immigration spokesman is going to argue that those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU should appeal to them directly. Minority ethnic voters are “feeling the strain” caused by migration from the EU, he believes, and they are unhappy about the way the immigration system favours EU citizens over Commonwealth citizens. This is what he told the Today programme this morning.
[Minority ethnic voters] want prosperity, they want their culture protected, they want freedom and they also want to be secure. They see the European Union as something that damages that ...
If granny wants to come over from Pakistan or India for a wedding, they have got more difficulties in terms of visas and getting visas than would a granny from either Spain or France. If you look at the black community, they are more likely to be struggling on low wages in the low skilled and unskilled areas, and that’s the area that has been affected by large-scale migration.
Stephen is absolutely right, I've been critical of the way ukip are perceived to be targeting areas of high immigration, Muslims should be targeted as people wanting to leave the EU not vilified.
UKIP need to go back to the core principles of libertarianism and independence, not alienating large swathes of the electorate. Immigration needs controlling, people already here shouldn't be excluded.
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
The votes in Scotland and Wales will be put down to local factors, and to an extent, rightly so. The voters there are not voting for or against Corbyn (nor, yet, his candidates). Unlike many English council elections, they are increasingly seen as elections in their own right rather than as proxy opinion polls for Westminster. Furthermore, there are good reasons in both Scotland and Wales why Labour might do poorly.
Of course, the Labour right might try to move anyway, and the English council elections may be poor as well - which would be harder to write off - but the Corbynites have their excuses ready.
The key election is London. If Khan loses then the electoral case against Corbyn is powerful; if he wins, losses elsewhere will be forgotten.
If SK loses the Mayoralty, Labour activists will write it off as racism.
That is quite possible.
Even so, it wouldn't be true. (There will no doubt be some who don't vote for him because of his race / religion but that will be true for Goldsmith too; I'd expect the net effect to be minimal). To lose in Scotland and Wales would be genuinely down to local factors. If Labour go down on all five fronts - English councils, London and PCCs - then if the Labour right don't move at that point, they never will. Indeed, they may never get the chance.
That said, if the reports of the referendum date are accurate, the Labour right - core to Remain - will have another distraction.
I didn't mean to imply that it would be true, David
I like to post these things to see the lengths apologists will go to avoid having to admit they were wrong.. refusing to mention it is par for the course
I think the key period for a move against Corbyn will be after the May elections. The results in Wales and Scotland will be particularly important. The evidence of his toxicity to voters should be clear to all but the most deluded. The Labour right will probably continue being quiet until then.
The votes in Scotland and Wales will be put down to local factors, and to an extent, rightly so. The voters there are not voting for or against Corbyn (nor, yet, his candidates). Unlike many English council elections, they are increasingly seen as elections in their own right rather than as proxy opinion polls for Westminster. Furthermore, there are good reasons in both Scotland and Wales why Labour might do poorly.
Of course, the Labour right might try to move anyway, and the English council elections may be poor as well - which would be harder to write off - but the Corbynites have their excuses ready.
The key election is London. If Khan loses then the electoral case against Corbyn is powerful; if he wins, losses elsewhere will be forgotten.
If SK loses the Mayoralty, Labour activists will write it off as racism.
That is quite possible.
Even so, it wouldn't be true. (There will no doubt be some who don't vote for him because of his race / religion but that will be true for Goldsmith too; I'd expect the net effect to be minimal). To lose in Scotland and Wales would be genuinely down to local factors. If Labour go down on all five fronts - English councils, London and PCCs - then if the Labour right don't move at that point, they never will. Indeed, they may never get the chance.
That said, if the reports of the referendum date are accurate, the Labour right - core to Remain - will have another distraction.
The proposed June 23rd date is just six weeks after the May elections, so the referendum campaign will be starting almost as soon as the local election ballots are counted. The window of opportunity for the Labour Right to react is very small indeed.
Sheesh. I left Dore at 8:10 and England were three down. I pull into Manchester less than fifty minutes late and what the feck has happened ?
Seven men got out in 65 minutes, that's what happened!
This does not bode well for the Liverpool v Stoke semi tonight.
I have tickets too.
Stoke to win 6-1.
On that topic, I note that the Liverpool fan club (sorry - BBC football), have an article "can Stoke upset Liverpool in cup?". In what way would it be an upset? Liverpool are seventh in the premiership with 34 points, Stoke are ninth with 33 points; short of one of them playing Southampton, it would be hard to have two more evenly matched teams.
That sort of lazy journalism is typical of the Beeb who still seem to think, in spite of all evidence, that Liverpool are winning championships and Stoke are in League One.
I think is more to do with Stoke haven't beaten us in I think 34 matches at Anfield, Liverpool have never lost a league cup semi at Anfield and Jurgen Klopp (pbuh) has never lost a semi final as manager.
"Terror group Isil has set up secret training camps across Europe to prepare fighters to carry out “special forces style” attacks in the UK or other EU countries, Europol has warned.
The international police agency said apart from bases in Syria, the barbaric organisation had “smaller scale training camps in the EU and Balkan countries”.
They would include survival training and sports activities to help jihadists prepare for “combat and interrogation resistance”.
And Islamic State in Iraq and Levant could look to recruit refugees who have fled to Europe to launch terror attacks in the countries that have given them shelter, the agency said."
Sheesh. I left Dore at 8:10 and England were three down. I pull into Manchester less than fifty minutes late and what the feck has happened ?
Seven men got out in 65 minutes, that's what happened!
This does not bode well for the Liverpool v Stoke semi tonight.
I have tickets too.
Stoke to win 6-1.
On that topic, I note that the Liverpool fan club (sorry - BBC football), have an article "can Stoke upset Liverpool in cup?". In what way would it be an upset? Liverpool are seventh in the premiership with 34 points, Stoke are ninth with 33 points; short of one of them playing Southampton, it would be hard to have two more evenly matched teams.
That sort of lazy journalism is typical of the Beeb who still seem to think, in spite of all evidence, that Liverpool are winning championships and Stoke are in League One.
You are quite right but on this occasion I think upset means overturning a 1-0 deficit away from home.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
Ukip doesn’t usually poll well with minority ethnic voters, but in a bold speech today Stephen Woolfe, Ukip’s immigration spokesman is going to argue that those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU should appeal to them directly. Minority ethnic voters are “feeling the strain” caused by migration from the EU, he believes, and they are unhappy about the way the immigration system favours EU citizens over Commonwealth citizens. This is what he told the Today programme this morning.
[Minority ethnic voters] want prosperity, they want their culture protected, they want freedom and they also want to be secure. They see the European Union as something that damages that ...
If granny wants to come over from Pakistan or India for a wedding, they have got more difficulties in terms of visas and getting visas than would a granny from either Spain or France. If you look at the black community, they are more likely to be struggling on low wages in the low skilled and unskilled areas, and that’s the area that has been affected by large-scale migration.
Stephen is absolutely right, I've been critical of the way ukip are perceived to be targeting areas of high immigration, Muslims should be targeted as people wanting to leave the EU not vilified.
UKIP need to go back to the core principles of libertarianism and independence, not alienating large swathes of the electorate. Immigration needs controlling, people already here shouldn't be excluded.
Well my Mum complains about the Roma all the time. She understands why Hitler tried to wipe them out.
If Leave sent her a leaflet saying Brexit = No more Roma in the UK, she'd vote Leave.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
Ukip doesn’t usually poll well with minority ethnic voters, but in a bold speech today Stephen Woolfe, Ukip’s immigration spokesman is going to argue that those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU should appeal to them directly. Minority ethnic voters are “feeling the strain” caused by migration from the EU, he believes, and they are unhappy about the way the immigration system favours EU citizens over Commonwealth citizens. This is what he told the Today programme this morning.
[Minority ethnic voters] want prosperity, they want their culture protected, they want freedom and they also want to be secure. They see the European Union as something that damages that ...
If granny wants to come over from Pakistan or India for a wedding, they have got more difficulties in terms of visas and getting visas than would a granny from either Spain or France. If you look at the black community, they are more likely to be struggling on low wages in the low skilled and unskilled areas, and that’s the area that has been affected by large-scale migration.
Stephen is absolutely right, I've been critical of the way ukip are perceived to be targeting areas of high immigration, Muslims should be targeted as people wanting to leave the EU not vilified.
UKIP need to go back to the core principles of libertarianism and independence, not alienating large swathes of the electorate. Immigration needs controlling, people already here shouldn't be excluded.
Well my Mum complains about the Roma all the time. She understands why Hitler tried to wipe them out.
If Leave sent her a leaflet saying Brexit = No more Roma in the UK, she'd vote Leave.
I have spoken with dozens of Eastern Europeans who say that letting the Roma in to the UK is inviting trouble, your Mum clearly is right to have concerns. I'm sorry to say that all the while we have our current ridiculous immigration policy she'll have to put up with it. Your man Cameron will tilt his head to one side and talk about taking measures but he's lying to your Mum.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
I reckon over 90% of people would chuck any literature about the EU ref straight in the bin at this point.. .most people wouldn't be interested even if they knew when it was, which no one does
The bickering over who is lying about abstract statistics will put so many people off engaging in this, I strongly believe LEAVE should appeal to the public heart not head
David Cameron has decided that social justice will be his key legacy theme as Prime Minister, with his autumn conference speech and most of the announcements so far this year focusing on an ‘all-out assault on poverty’. At times, this has appeared a little vague, while other announcements, like the plan for Muslim women to learn English, have been a little confused. But Cameron has clearly decided that the Conservatives must tackle injustices in society, not just because it is right for the country, but also because it is right for the party, which is still seen by too many voters as for the rich.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
I reckon over 90% of people would chuck any literature about the EU ref straight in the bin at this point.. .most people wouldn't be interested even if they knew when it was, which no one does
The bickering over who is lying about abstract statistics will put so many people off engaging in this, I strongly believe LEAVE should appeal to the public heart not head
TSE agrees with you, he says it's all about immigration.
The Sweden stabbing is number two on the Sky News website. Oddly enough, it's very difficult to find on the BBC News website.
If you were someone who said we should allow in as many refugees as possible would you want to talk about news like this? Silence on here, and admonishments for mentioning it
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
The turnout at the AV referendum was 42%, I'm interested to see how the EU % will compare. I'm convinced the lower the turnout the greater chance Leave has.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
IIRC every referendum we've had (N Ireland may be an exception) has endorsed the status quo. "Always keep a hold of nurse"...
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
The Sweden stabbing is number two on the Sky News website. Oddly enough, it's very difficult to find on the BBC News website.
If you were someone who said we should allow in as many refugees as possible would you want to talk about news like this? Silence on here, and admonishments for mentioning it
What were the Prophet Enoch's teachings on this?
You're right of course, we've got enough home grown British teenagers stabbing each other already.
David Cameron has decided that social justice will be his key legacy theme as Prime Minister, with his autumn conference speech and most of the announcements so far this year focusing on an ‘all-out assault on poverty’. At times, this has appeared a little vague, while other announcements, like the plan for Muslim women to learn English, have been a little confused. But Cameron has clearly decided that the Conservatives must tackle injustices in society, not just because it is right for the country, but also because it is right for the party, which is still seen by too many voters as for the rich.
Morning all,
Never mind what he says, see what he actually does. I suspect the record will be appalling in the long run e.g. child poverty.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
I agree, David.
I would have thought by now, there would have been leaflets and canvassing. At the moment, Leave are wasting their biggest asset, people willing to campaign on the ground.
Against that, the flow of bad news from Europe is relentless.
David Cameron has decided that social justice will be his key legacy theme as Prime Minister, with his autumn conference speech and most of the announcements so far this year focusing on an ‘all-out assault on poverty’. At times, this has appeared a little vague, while other announcements, like the plan for Muslim women to learn English, have been a little confused. But Cameron has clearly decided that the Conservatives must tackle injustices in society, not just because it is right for the country, but also because it is right for the party, which is still seen by too many voters as for the rich.
Morning all,
Never mind what he says, see what he actually does. I suspect the record will be appalling in the long run e.g. child poverty.
while the targets and metrics remain ludicrous, maybe.
James Clarke Some arguing today about what kind of bloke Cecil Parkinson was. Well if Alan Clark calls you "a grade one shit", you really are a stinker.
The Sweden stabbing is number two on the Sky News website. Oddly enough, it's very difficult to find on the BBC News website.
If you were someone who said we should allow in as many refugees as possible would you want to talk about news like this? Silence on here, and admonishments for mentioning it
What were the Prophet Enoch's teachings on this?
Wotcha!
Surely you know? I must have posted it close on 10,000 times
He said that if you allow too many new people into a society too quickly there would be civil strife and violence of extreme proportions.. and he was right as we see being played out all over Europe at the moment
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
IIRC every referendum we've had (N Ireland may be an exception) has endorsed the status quo. "Always keep a hold of nurse"...
N Ireland endorsed what a considerable majority of the political spectrum was advocating, so is equivalent to the status quo.
Scotland and Wales voted for change in their initial referendums. That probably endorsed what was a settled view in Scotland at the time but Wales was a much harder fought campaign. The 1979 Scottish referendum notoriously endorsed change but was then ruled void on turnout / absolute support level. There've also been a lot of local referendums on things like elected mayoralities, quite a few of which have produced change.
That said, your main point is right. Most referendums go with the status quo, and most referendums advocating change only go there with a huge amount of political leadership. There are exceptions but they are few and far between.
The turnout at the AV referendum was 42%, I'm interested to see how the EU % will compare. I'm convinced the lower the turnout the greater chance Leave has.
Agree about a lower turnout being better for Leave. The 1975 referendum turnout was 65%, for a baseline comparison, there will probably be similar levels of engagement this time too. It won't be the 42% of the AV referendum, nor the 85% that Scotland got in 2014 either.
The Sweden stabbing is number two on the Sky News website. Oddly enough, it's very difficult to find on the BBC News website.
If you were someone who said we should allow in as many refugees as possible would you want to talk about news like this? Silence on here, and admonishments for mentioning it
What were the Prophet Enoch's teachings on this?
Wotcha!
Surely you know? I must have posted it close on 10,000 times
He said that if you allow too many new people into a society too quickly there would be civil strife and violence of extreme proportions.. and he was right as we see being played out all over Europe at the moment
How do his teachings account for British kids getting handy with knives on a regular basis, as seems to be the case?
The Sweden stabbing is number two on the Sky News website. Oddly enough, it's very difficult to find on the BBC News website.
If you were someone who said we should allow in as many refugees as possible would you want to talk about news like this? Silence on here, and admonishments for mentioning it
What were the Prophet Enoch's teachings on this?
Wotcha!
Surely you know? I must have posted it close on 10,000 times
He said that if you allow too many new people into a society too quickly there would be civil strife and violence of extreme proportions.. and he was right as we see being played out all over Europe at the moment
How do his teachings account for British kids getting handy with knives on a regular basis, as seems to be the case?
Wotcha!
I don't think he had a view, there has always been crime pre and post mass immigration
Tories will want to beggar Scotland, so up to SNP to protect and tell them where to stick it. Big test for the SNP , if they accept a merde sandwich on this they are done for. They should instead poke Westminster right in the eye unless a miracle happens and they offer a real fair deal, which to me is impossible.
The bottom line is that a certain (and worryingly high) percentage of the male immigrants we accept will be 'testosterone bombs'. Until and unless some effective action is taken across the EU to secure its external (and internal) borders we are just going to see a lot more of these stories of women being attacked and abused. I think ground zero in this will be Germany actually. They've gone OTT on the intake and are a pretty feminist bunch on the whole. But they're so meek and guilt wracked. However, once France's women start getting the rape treatment instead of the AK47 treatment then it will really hot-up politically. What a mess.
Is there some way Cameron could get an agreement with Germany and Sweden that these asylum seekers won't get passports for 20+ years? Unlike other aims, it only needs the agreement of two nations rather than 27 and don't require treaty change. That would neutralise a toxic argument for remain campaign.
David Cameron has decided that social justice will be his key legacy theme as Prime Minister, with his autumn conference speech and most of the announcements so far this year focusing on an ‘all-out assault on poverty’. At times, this has appeared a little vague, while other announcements, like the plan for Muslim women to learn English, have been a little confused. But Cameron has clearly decided that the Conservatives must tackle injustices in society, not just because it is right for the country, but also because it is right for the party, which is still seen by too many voters as for the rich.
Here's the thing: I don't disagree with any of that. I thought Cameron's speech was excellent on this the other week (although totally overshadowed by Bowie's death) and I also don't see the pronouncement on the inclusion of Muslims within the mainstream of British society as anything but consistent with it.
What I do disagree with is where it leads Conservatives down the path that taxing the middle-class and redistributing income to low earners is the answer.
When people say the Conservatives are for the rich they are talking about corporation tax cuts, hedge fund donations, privatisations that benefit financial institutions, side-stepping any high-end wealth taxes and big business attitudes to the EU and immigration.
They are not talking about taxes on middle earners or inheritance tax on the main family home.
@LadPolitics: @RuthDavidsonMSP@wallaceme Oi! Don't hijack our initiative by advertising foreign bookmakers! Open an account with us and I'll give you 5/1
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
I played through it on the PC when it came out - it's very much an indie product with no flash-bang effects but has a definite elfin charm. I thought the ending was a bit sudden, but that was maybe because they had a sequel in mind
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
Remain should remember the lessons of Labour in 87. A brilliant campaign and being so much more organised and professional than the other side won't help if people don't want what you're offering.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
I agree, David.
I would have thought by now, there would have been leaflets and canvassing. At the moment, Leave are wasting their biggest asset, people willing to campaign on the ground.
Against that, the flow of bad news from Europe is relentless.
Another good NH poll for Trump - not only is he miles ahead, but 2nd is Cruz (who is openly disliked by establishment GOPers) and 3rd is Kasich (who is so liberal that I'd vote for him, and I'm not sure that leftie Labour ex-MPs are the core GOP market). Sanders looking strong in NH and a real Democrat dog-fight in Iowa. The Obama approval ratings have picked up - he used to be regularly on -8 to -10, whereas it's now generally around equal numbers who approve and disapprove.
Well I will be voting for Zac, but won't a lot of Londoners see that and think "Inshallah we will see Corbyn's man in City Hall"?
Maybe, but the Khan and Corbyn camps seem quite keen to distance themselves from each other so far
/twitter.com/maomentum_/status/691892832114708482
Which is why the Tories are making a point of putting them together!
Outside Islington there's not much support for Corbyn's policies and, as Boris showed, the way to win the contest is to appeal to those in zones 5 and 6.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
I agree, David.
I would have thought by now, there would have been leaflets and canvassing. At the moment, Leave are wasting their biggest asset, people willing to campaign on the ground.
Against that, the flow of bad news from Europe is relentless.
They are waiting for May.
I'm happy to quit the EU, but suspect that my vote will be wasted.
The second the starting gun goes off, the various factions and rivals on the Out side will all kick off with competing campaigns and messages, and Leave will completely bugger it up.
The bottom line is that a certain (and worryingly high) percentage of the male immigrants we accept will be 'testosterone bombs'. Until and unless some effective action is taken across the EU to secure its external (and internal) borders we are just going to see a lot more of these stories of women being attacked and abused. I think ground zero in this will be Germany actually. They've gone OTT on the intake and are a pretty feminist bunch on the whole. But they're so meek and guilt wracked. However, once France's women start getting the rape treatment instead of the AK47 treatment then it will really hot-up politically. What a mess.
Young men in groups with little to do have always been bad news. The testosterone pumps you full of physical and sexual energy and, in groups, you egg each other on.
If there is no sport, no jobs and no women coupled with a huge sense of entitlement to all of it - and just a religious dogma to fall back upon that is highly subject to misogyny - and you are asking for big trouble.
That's a photo from when Ken was a contender from a spoof site isn't it?
But anyway, even though I would be horrified if Khan was our Mayor, it does seem a bit crummy that Zac could win, as Boris did, from getting all the zone 6 votes (where I live) from people that don't really live in London. That said I guess most people round here do work in zone1 and so are affected
The bottom line is that a certain (and worryingly high) percentage of the male immigrants we accept will be 'testosterone bombs'. Until and unless some effective action is taken across the EU to secure its external (and internal) borders we are just going to see a lot more of these stories of women being attacked and abused. I think ground zero in this will be Germany actually. They've gone OTT on the intake and are a pretty feminist bunch on the whole. But they're so meek and guilt wracked. However, once France's women start getting the rape treatment instead of the AK47 treatment then it will really hot-up politically. What a mess.
Young men in groups with little to do have always been bad news. The testosterone pumps you full of physical and sexual energy and, in groups, you egg each other on.
If there is no sport, no jobs and no women coupled with a huge sense of entitlement to all of it - and just a religious dogma to fall back upon that is highly subject to misogyny - and you are asking for big trouble.
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
Leave are in a dreadful state and way behind the curve. Remain have already got their letters, attack ads, attack lines out there and leaflets through the letterbox.
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
Leave in a dreadful state? They've been ahead in around 50% of recent polls.
That has nothing to do with the campaign. Yes to AV were ahead in the polls at this stage in the campaign. Likewise, in 1975 the polls showed support for leaving before the campaign began. Both referendums ended up with 2:1 support for the status quo.
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
I agree, David.
I would have thought by now, there would have been leaflets and canvassing. At the moment, Leave are wasting their biggest asset, people willing to campaign on the ground.
Against that, the flow of bad news from Europe is relentless.
They are waiting for May.
They do indeed seem to be following the old adage:
Comments
But if there is a Scottish Tory revival it’ll be a modest one. Ms Davidson’s target is to win more MSPs than ever before, which would mean 19 – only four more than it has at present. Overtaking Scottish Labour remains unlikely, and even if that did happen, Conservatives would find themselves up against the all-conquering Nationalists. Nevertheless, over the next 12 months Ms Davidson will be as central to Scottish Conservative strategy as Nicola Sturgeon is to the SNP’s
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/691908702467682304
Would put the multiple Leave campaigns on the back foot. Also suggests that Cameron is happy with the deal being offered now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGhPvVb3dak
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/councils/2012/
I have tickets too.
Stoke to win 6-1.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/12121070/Migrant-fatally-stabs-female-refugee-centre-worker-in-Sweden-say-police.html
It sees Bairstow and Stokes score 399 run partnership in about 40 overs a few weeks ago.
I'm very confident about the integrity of the England team.
1. Most Labour MPs and most members (including many of the new ones) are not tribal leftists or rightists or centrists. They want Labour to stand for something interesting and what they think of as progressive, and they want leading figures to be reasonably loyal and friendly to each other in public and especially in the media. Everyone likes Liz Kendall because she said what she thinks honestly without a hint of personal malice, indeed with open affection to Jeremy. I won't give a counter-example but there are figures who exasperate unaligned moderates by constant bitching.
2. Specifically, high-profile bitching between now and May will not be forgotten or forgiven, and any bad results will be quite explicitly blamed on those who do it, by members who are not on the left.
3. Deselections per se will be rare - you have to be a really bad local MP not to be on fairly affectionate terms with members, and there is not an ideological majority who will say "We like you but you've got to go because your views on Trident are unsound". However, the boundary changes mean that a fair number of MPs will be partly dependent on people who don't know them. Coupled with retirements, it's likely that the PLP will move left.
4. A clear distinction is drawn between people who set out an alternative agenda and people who focus on attacking the current agenda. Benn's speech is the way to do it - sure, unilateralists didn't like it, but nobody is really holding it against him. People who consistently set out clear alternatives will gradually move into the frame as possible future leaders. They don't need to go on about why they don't like what we've got now - people take that as read if they're proposing something different.
5. In doing that, don't rely on the Tory media. They like splits and fights, they are bored by positive agendas. That's why Hunt isn't getting much coverage. Persevere nonetheless - consistent articles and speeches will filter through. You don't want to be the Daily Mail lead story - you want pieces in the Guardian and the Mirror and speeches to the Fabian Society.
"There were 98 overs to be bowled today. England didn't even last 98 balls."
This is perhaps a more reassuring reason
John Etheridge
JohnSunCricket
England have now lost 7 of their last 8 final Test matches of series. Seems they run out of gas.
Ukip doesn’t usually poll well with minority ethnic voters, but in a bold speech today Stephen Woolfe, Ukip’s immigration spokesman is going to argue that those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU should appeal to them directly. Minority ethnic voters are “feeling the strain” caused by migration from the EU, he believes, and they are unhappy about the way the immigration system favours EU citizens over Commonwealth citizens. This is what he told the Today programme this morning.
[Minority ethnic voters] want prosperity, they want their culture protected, they want freedom and they also want to be secure. They see the European Union as something that damages that ...
If granny wants to come over from Pakistan or India for a wedding, they have got more difficulties in terms of visas and getting visas than would a granny from either Spain or France. If you look at the black community, they are more likely to be struggling on low wages in the low skilled and unskilled areas, and that’s the area that has been affected by large-scale migration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jan/26/ukip-says-brexit-campaign-should-appeal-to-minority-ethnic-voters-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
Even so, it wouldn't be true. (There will no doubt be some who don't vote for him because of his race / religion but that will be true for Goldsmith too; I'd expect the net effect to be minimal). To lose in Scotland and Wales would be genuinely down to local factors. If Labour go down on all five fronts - English councils, London and PCCs - then if the Labour right don't move at that point, they never will. Indeed, they may never get the chance.
That said, if the reports of the referendum date are accurate, the Labour right - core to Remain - will have another distraction.
No doubt some cheerleader will post 'Well, who else will Conservatives vote for in GE 2020?'
'No one' will be the answer from many, with him in charge. Which is probably one of the things Labour are banking on.
That sort of lazy journalism is typical of the Beeb who still seem to think, in spite of all evidence, that Liverpool are winning championships and Stoke are in League One.
UKIP need to go back to the core principles of libertarianism and independence, not alienating large swathes of the electorate. Immigration needs controlling, people already here shouldn't be excluded.
I like to post these things to see the lengths apologists will go to avoid having to admit they were wrong.. refusing to mention it is par for the course
The international police agency said apart from bases in Syria, the barbaric organisation had “smaller scale training camps in the EU and Balkan countries”.
They would include survival training and sports activities to help jihadists prepare for “combat and interrogation resistance”.
And Islamic State in Iraq and Levant could look to recruit refugees who have fled to Europe to launch terror attacks in the countries that have given them shelter, the agency said."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/12120636/Islamic-State-setting-up-terror-training-camps-in-Europe-police-agency-warns.html
I'm almost certain they're biding their time and waiting (hoping) for May to declare for them once the deal is public.
But even if she does, that might be too late.
If Leave sent her a leaflet saying Brexit = No more Roma in the UK, she'd vote Leave.
The bickering over who is lying about abstract statistics will put so many people off engaging in this, I strongly believe LEAVE should appeal to the public heart not head
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/top-tories-form-social-justice-caucus-to-plot-all-out-assault-on-poverty/
By contrast, No frittered away a 3:2 lead in Scotland to hold on by the skin of their teeth after Yes ran by far the better campaign.
As things stand with Leave, Remain will win comfortably.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/review-banner-saga-ps4.html
You're right of course, we've got enough home grown British teenagers stabbing each other already.
Never mind what he says, see what he actually does. I suspect the record will be appalling in the long run e.g. child poverty.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/scottish-parliament-forced-to-consider-incest
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/36-best-quotes-of-davos-2016
Wonk word bingo from Davos.
Against that, the flow of bad news from Europe is relentless.
Never mind what he says, see what he actually does. I suspect the record will be appalling in the long run e.g. child poverty.
while the targets and metrics remain ludicrous, maybe.
Some arguing today about what kind of bloke Cecil Parkinson was. Well if Alan Clark calls you "a grade one shit", you really are a stinker.
Surely you know? I must have posted it close on 10,000 times
He said that if you allow too many new people into a society too quickly there would be civil strife and violence of extreme proportions.. and he was right as we see being played out all over Europe at the moment
Scotland and Wales voted for change in their initial referendums. That probably endorsed what was a settled view in Scotland at the time but Wales was a much harder fought campaign. The 1979 Scottish referendum notoriously endorsed change but was then ruled void on turnout / absolute support level. There've also been a lot of local referendums on things like elected mayoralities, quite a few of which have produced change.
That said, your main point is right. Most referendums go with the status quo, and most referendums advocating change only go there with a huge amount of political leadership. There are exceptions but they are few and far between.
I don't think he had a view, there has always been crime pre and post mass immigration
You should just say thanks and move on...
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/36-best-quotes-of-davos-2016
Already over 1% of Germany is migrants from the current crisis. They'll get at least that and probably double or triple this year.
What I do disagree with is where it leads Conservatives down the path that taxing the middle-class and redistributing income to low earners is the answer.
When people say the Conservatives are for the rich they are talking about corporation tax cuts, hedge fund donations, privatisations that benefit financial institutions, side-stepping any high-end wealth taxes and big business attitudes to the EU and immigration.
They are not talking about taxes on middle earners or inheritance tax on the main family home.
@LadPolitics: @wallaceme We'd offer 4/1 on an election before 2020.
@RuthDavidsonMSP: .@wallaceme @LadPolitics I'll take a piece of that. Will @paddypower match those odds?
@LadPolitics: @RuthDavidsonMSP @wallaceme Oi! Don't hijack our initiative by advertising foreign bookmakers! Open an account with us and I'll give you 5/1
Want to convert waverers? Stop doing this passive aggressive stuff.
https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/691892832114708482
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Outside Islington there's not much support for Corbyn's policies and, as Boris showed, the way to win the contest is to appeal to those in zones 5 and 6.
The second the starting gun goes off, the various factions and rivals on the Out side will all kick off with competing campaigns and messages, and Leave will completely bugger it up.
If there is no sport, no jobs and no women coupled with a huge sense of entitlement to all of it - and just a religious dogma to fall back upon that is highly subject to misogyny - and you are asking for big trouble.
But anyway, even though I would be horrified if Khan was our Mayor, it does seem a bit crummy that Zac could win, as Boris did, from getting all the zone 6 votes (where I live) from people that don't really live in London. That said I guess most people round here do work in zone1 and so are affected
"ne'er cast a clout till May is Out."