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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP defences)
Bushey North (Con defence) on Hertfordshire
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour 15 (Conservative majority of 15)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 995 (44%), United Kingdom Independence Party 524 (23%), Labour 437 (19%), Liberal Democrats 321 (14%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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Comments
@dorothy Eagles
You;re dates are wrong Mr Eagles.
I defended Osborne up to 2011 on the grounds he needed some time to settle in, see the books and announce what he was going to do. Likewise because he wasn't Gordon Brown.
In 2011 he chickened out on reform and ever since Ive been on his case. As Ive pointed out reform needs to take place early in a Parlt so that the benefits outweigh the short term pains but start to feed through in time for the next election.
GO has simply taken the easy way out and aped Brown, and he's doing exactly the same in this session.
2011 - it;s the Eurozone causing a slowdown
2016 - It's China causing a slowdown
Plus ca change. Activity instead of Action.
Labour to get 104% in Southwark whilst having 'disappointing' results in Hamilton and Thanet?
What could possibly go wrong?
The opinion pieces and BTL comments are as good as PB. And wider.
I paid for DT access too, and wasted my money.
Paying for good quality news and insight strikes me as perfectly obvious.
The Mail gives great OTT, and lurid fastest details. Sky is there before the rest on tv.
For the price of two cod and chips, or nice plonk - who wouldn't want 30 days of top notch stuff?
St Helens is an interesting one; why did UKIP press for it?
I take Harry's point re Wealden - local races surely have the potential to be much more volatile even in very one party dominated areas, for reasons that might be impossible to predict without living there. I have collated as much statistical info as I can on my local area for elections come 2017, but it might all mean nothing for the same reason.
I sort of hope UKIP win the Thanet one. They have a tough time with our voting system, and goodness knows the last thing we need is for there to be literally nobody with any prospects, even if only locally, besides the Big Three (Lab/Con/SNP)
LDs recovering in locals in London? Well, it's something. Looking for potential parliamentary seat recoveries is a bleak exercise, but Cable and Davey only lost by 2-3000 votes (I know they are in a different part of London to this local contest), which is very close compared to many places they lost in! I suppose they could do with a sign the people of London will elect Labour, of course, but not so massively the LDs cannot squeak a few seats too - people of Southwark, surprise us with a LD surge.
Lanarkshire? Well, technically the SNP don't win every single local that comes up, but yeah, probably a dull one.
I feel a bit sorry for UKIP in Hertfordshire. A lot of wasted effort it sounds like, but that's democracy for you.
For goodness sake Labour moderates, get your act together. Remove these clowns while there is still time.
No-one is compelled to own a TV
like the avatar
I saw six men kicking and punching the mother-in-law.
My neighbour said 'Are you going to help?'
'No' I said. 'six should be enough.'
On average, it takes 20 years for immigrant labor force participation to catch up to that of German natives.
https://t.co/3AjYFryojb
A regressive tax and one we'd baulk at if Russia used it.
Present company excepted.
I still can't figure out how Reggie Varney got so much crumpet. he must have been 110.
I'm sticking with head-tilted angry orange-man squiggle.
Contains a Star Trek reference, the two greatest puns in PB history, one of which is a Latin pun.
(FYI - I did do an ABO thread in 2012, saying Ozzy should be replaced by Ken Clarke)
And the best PB pun remains Chris Huhnes trouser press claim being descibed as "the riches of creases"
I feel I know the journalists to talk with, Hugo Rifkind even prodded their Admin to sort out my subscription problem.
I'll never forget his performance at the 2007 Tory conference, he and Dave pulled out all the stops to make sure Brown didn't call an election that Autumn.
Plus, I'm more forgiving of the inheritance he was bequeathed by Darling, who turned the taps on, whereas as Callaghan and Healey did their best to turn the taps off in the 70s.
If you have access to a student email address you can get the times/Sunday times for a lot less! £20 a year!
No leftie complaints about bias tonight? https://t.co/FySN7q5ZtL
I get the lolz from the Guardian for free.
Look at the way Brown continually undermined Blair and his colleagues. Osborne has been loyal and tried to ensure government works fine.
Can you recall him doing anything to undermine Cameron, in the way Brown did to Blair, or Lawson at times did to Thatcher?
Vaughn SterlingVerified account @vplus 11m11 minutes ago
CNN BREAKING:
@realDonaldTrump now with 11 point lead in Iowa over Cruz -CNN/ORC poll http://cnn.it/1lA7SH7
Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal 3m3 minutes ago
New CNN/ORC poll shows Sanders opening up 8 point lead over Clinton in Iowa: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html …
Sanders and Trump cruising to victory in Iowa according to CNN.
Can't imagine why Nigel Dodds doesn't like McDonnell and Corbyn?
BREAKING Iowa GOP – CNN/ORC poll #’s: Trump 37%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 14%, Carson 6% - everyone else 3% or below
He started well but he just cares about winning now. I also think he's more sensitive than his hardman image and him being booed at the 2012 Olympics affected him. So he now wants to do a bit of left-wingerry to show how nice and generous he is and improve his standing for PM.
If this Budget this year is anything like it's cracked up to be then he's ceased to be a Tory in any real sense.
Robert Kimbell
The UK can leave the EU by repealing the 1972 European Communities Act, thus rendering all EU law unenforceable in the UK and Gibraltar.
You tend to judge him on his politics, I judge him on his fit for the day job .
Trump 37 +12
Cruz 26 +15
Rubio 14 +1
Carson 6 -17
Sanders 51 +14
Hillary 43 -12
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html
11 days to go.
However, he shares Brown's love of technical tinkering, the overt political positioning of his measures, and his weakness for tactics over strategy.
Personally, I'm pretty disappointed that he's fluffed his first opportunity to get some of the necessary, but painful, reforms through in 2015. However, he is a far better chancellor than Brown - though that's hardly a major achievement.
BBC Katya
Sold out. Germans stocking up on pepper spray and gas pistols following #cologneattacks More on BBC News at Ten https://t.co/RXK5INmFT3
Deputy Interior Min in #Germany tells me priority is to reduce numbers of #migrants coming. Says only effective if all #EU works together
Turkish German social worker, 30 years in #Berlin tells me Welcome Culture in #Germany destroyed in one night #cologneattacks
Juergen tells me he's buying a (non-lethal) gas pistol to keep at home. Says security situation in #Germany worsening, police overwhelmed
I agree he never undermines Cameron and respects him, and by all accounts is fairly level headed. But there are plenty of political if not personal similarities.
However, the correct way to exit the EU is not to renege on our treaty obligations. Instead, would simply invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This would put us on three to five year exit path as we negotiated new trade agreements, both with the EU and with other countries. Furthermore, it would enable an orderly dissolution of legal structures. Simply repealing the 1972 ECA would leave quite a lot of things in legal limbo, and would almost certainly result in a great many law suits.
I mean, they're obviously sectarian, but they seem to combine a base that in England would cut across traditional WWC Labour base, UKIPers and Tory WWC small businessman/white van man.
A patriotic, nationalist, strong on tradition/family/defence/Union, sceptical of the EU and very firm on immigration, but left of centre economically, party would probably do quite well here, if it existed.
Second poll today that shows Trump up by double digits in Iowa:
Emerson (first time they polled Iowa):
Trump 33
Cruz 23
Rubio 14
Carson 9
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_542e7f5df4e14162851de1c77b0df5f4.pdf
We've not see this with the current Parliamentary party.
I'm not sure why.
Though the referendum is just advisory, it would take a Parliamentary act to leave. The Tories would have to be very unified to pass an exit bill.
I like his style really. He reminds me of Paul Darrow in Blake's 7. I keep expecting him to shout "Zen! Put the unemployment figures on the main screen!" when he's at the despatch box.
I can see why @Alanbrooke is pissed off with him though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-shropshire-35361401?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=56a114613d00002e02a95450&Telford MP explains why she pulled out of BBC interview&17:28&ns_fee=0#post_56a114613d00002e02a95450
Osborne can't on the one hand blame the world economy when things are bad and then claim the credit when the same economy picks up. His approach is to have us as a boat floating on the tides of global markets. The "turnround" in our finances has more to do with the economic cycle than anything he has done. And the cycle will turn again some time in the next 5 years.
If he had been more aggressive in putting overdue reforms in place then he would put a motor on the boat and allow us to work against the turn of the economic tide and be in a better place when it all goes against us.
The thing I dislike most is the way he has wasted 5 years.
For today we'll have to make do with the tourism stats:
' Compared with the same quarter a year ago, visits to the UK by overseas residents increased by 4.7% to 10.5 million in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015. The number of nights spent in the UK by overseas residents, also rose by 6.0%, but the estimated earnings from these visits fell by 3.8% to £7.1 billion.
Visits abroad by UK residents during quarter 3 2015 increased by 9.1% to 22.4 million compared with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2014. The number of nights spent abroad by UK residents rose by 13.4% and expenditure during these visits increased by 13.6% to £14.4 billion. '
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ott/overseas-travel-and-tourism---quarterly-release/q3-2015/rpt-ott-quarter-3--july-to-sept--2015.html
Borrow and bribe x half a trillion.
Paisley is a town in Scotland - start there :-)
I am not convinced that authoritarian neo-presbyterian "social conservatism" appeals to more than a few percentage points in England. English people seem pretty relaxed about how others live their lives, even in shire counties in middle England.
Where he has undoubtedly been weaker is in reform. The banking sector should have been broken up and made more competitive. Our tax code is frankly ludicrous and is screaming out for simplification. He is far too fond of tweaks and gestures which sound good but actually achieve very little. His need for gestures means things change too often for long term investment decisions.
But he can claim a lot of credit for the employment miracle we have undergone; he has significantly reduced the deficit without creating anything like the pain that was anticipated; the emphasis on apprenticeships is a good thing; he has worked hard to reduce tax avoidance/evasion and been quite innovative on how to deal with multinationals; he has tried hard to keep London's place on the international stage in particular in relation to India, China and the middle east and he has, with his colleagues, worked wonders in getting the head count in government down to a more sustainable level.
I would give him 7 or 8 out of 10. Brown, in comparison, barely troubled the scorers.
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader has made the pre planning of PB threads a nightmare
Knocking that is daft.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/corbyn-support-dropping-outside-his-base
Preferred leader September to December:
Northern England
Corbyn +3 -> Cameron +10
London
Cameron +7 -> Corbyn +10
Wales has also gone from Corbyn +14 to a Cameron lead:
' The difference between the capital and the rest of the country is a serious problem for Labour. As London warms to the new Labour leader, the rest of the country is turning away from him. The most striking thing is that opinion outside London is now worryingly consistent, cutting across many of the traditional party identifiers such as social grade and region. '
If this is accurate then things look good for Sadiq Khan but Labour will take a hammering everywhere else.
Leading to yet more internal Labour disruption between Corbyn's London based fan club and increasingly panicky Labour MPs in Wales and Northern England.
http://www.ga.businessgrowthservice.greatbusiness.gov.uk/
John McDonnell: Labour would reverse savings and consider scrapping reliefs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12113816/Labour-plotting-140-billion-tax-bombshell-with-relief-cuts-and-spending-hikes.html
The police visit took place because of other worrying issues in the boy’s school work, not just the “terrorist house” line, Grunshaw said. The concerns were “reported through the appropriate channels”.
“This was not responded to as a terror incident and the reporter was fully aware of this before she wrote her story,” he said. “In the event there was no further action needed, but if the school and police had not acted then they would have been failing in their duty to respond to concerns.”
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/21/lancashire-police-criticise-bbc-over-terrorist-house-story
Seems BBC have done what they so often criticise the Daily Rant for...taking one part of the much bigger story and making that the central focus of the reasons why. They clearly thought they had a UK equivalent of the Ahmed Mohamed clock incident.
Don't know if accurate but I read somewhere that the red door story didn't stand up either, in that the company painted all doors red and they housed all sorts of people, not just asylum seekers.
The nerve of the f*ckers. After unilaterally causing the problem, they're now piously asking for cooperation in fixing it!
I should clarify it is not that young people would support him more than Cameron, particularly given the Labour brand is more popular, but that the support is increasing, which astounds me.
Sanctimonious tripe from the plod there
The bigger problems are more deep-rooted. Industrial output peaked 15 years ago, and growth per head has been wretched since then.
How many times have you heard or used the word "neo-liberal" in physical conversation?.
On the macroecomic front he has benefited from the global reovery post 2009. Recessions last about 18 months then things get better much of the recovery would have happened anyway irresecpective of what Osborne did. It's your second paragraph which would increase the underlying rate of national growth and where he could have done something worthwhile but after 5 years we're still not much further on.
As for your third paragraph yes there are gains on employment, some progress on tax evaders and actual progress on reducing the government payroll. But set against that are a failure to rebalance the economy, a large and growing BOP problem, flaky productivity ( a function of too much cheap labour and not enough investment ) and no major efforts to address overdue infrastructure projects which will boost national productivity. for me that off sets the pluses he has nothced up.
If London loses HSBC it will be his doing.
Must be as frustrating as Trump's poll figures.