Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
Sorry to interrupt, but economic events are taking place and oil is crashing at a rate that if it continues for another month the price of it will reach 0$.
Happy to bet oil doesn't reach $0/barrel
Whats the hard floor ?
People said it was $30, now they are talking about $25. I'm not an oil trader, but I think $16 is as low as it can go before it basically costs more to pump it out of the ground and ship it on tankers than to just leave it in the ground.
It can go bellow cost. This is like a supermarket price war. The question is for how low and how long can supermarkets go until they go bust, arguably the one with lower cash needs and greater cash reserves has the best chances of survival (in that case the top 3 will be the USA, Norway and Russia, the lowest 3 will be Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar)
"The party is doing less well when it comes to attracting rural dwellers, elderly people and those struggling to make ends meet, leaked documents show."
That seems to fit the profile of the average conservative, apart from the last bit.
Elderly people being the most likely to vote, as we know. The over 60s could make up more than a third of voters in 2020 I seem to remember reading somewhere.
Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
Corbyn's supporters are young hipsters with beards, clowns like Owen Jones, and Tabitha/Jasper Junior Doctor types enjoying their moments of ra-ra-revolution. If it all goes wrong, there are rich parents to fall back on.
There are some rumours going around that Trump has got another 2 big names to endorse him before Iowa. I'm only mentioning them because just a few moments ago Bob (the Bore) Dole came out of the dead:
"“I question his allegiance to the party,” Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. “I don’t know how often you’ve heard him say the word ‘Republican’ — not very often.” Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word “conservative,” Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: “extremist.” '
"The only person who could stop Mr. Cruz from capturing the nomination? “I think it’s Trump,” Mr. Dole said, adding that Mr. Trump was “gaining a little.” "
The pattern is similar with Branstad yesterday, Trump is attracting a lot of allies just because they hate Cruz more than Trump.
What spectacular implicit damning with faint praise: Trump would fare better than delivering cataclysmic losses.
Yes. It spells doom for the Republicans I am afraid if they are reduced to this. Better to wheel out Dole himself. I had the sad experience of catching a tiny bit of Palin and Trump on the news. Quite grotesque. One thing did allow it to make sense though. The reporter pointed out that Palin was basically a reality TV star these days. For her as well as Trump being grotesque is how they make their living. The Only Way Is Nomination.
Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
Corbyn's supporters are young hipsters with beards, clowns like Owen Jones, and Tabitha/Jasper Junior Doctor types enjoying their moments of ra-ra-revolution. If it all goes wrong, there are rich parents to fall back on.
Same f##king idiots who gave Russell Brand all his "Trews News" videos a watch. Thank god that shit is gone, one less thing to pollute my twitter timeline.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire.
Personally, I don't think they're ideologically committed either way. They just see leaving as potentially disruptive to their business models/plans and revenue projections, and therefore a risk, and would therefore rather not have the bother thank you.
The split of 1981 was purely one at the top of the party, over policies that back then where seen as a matter of life or death (cold war, europe, CND, monetarism).
The base didn't follow, the SDP was simply absorbed into the Liberals over time because it failed to gain the support of ordinary people outside the small circle of Labour centrists, because most Labour voters where opposed to at least one of the things that the SDP espoused.
That's just not right in a number of ways. The division had existed over defence and European policy since Gaitskell and Labour was anti-Europe in the 1950s and early 1960s. The causes of the final break included (and here's the modern parallel) the infiltration of CLPs by militant and other groups and the de-selection of "moderate" MPs.
In the area where I was an active Liberal, we had an infux of ex-Labour activists as well as new SDP members who had never been in any political party. I remember at the 1987 election count being surrounded by a group of Labour activists and the first thing they asked was whether I was a Liberal or a Social Democrat. On telling them I was a Liberal, they became friendly and cheerful but their hatred for the "traitors" as one of them called them knew no bounds.
The infiltration of CLPs by Momentum and others and the possible de-selection of sitting MPs could be the catalyst but of course of the original Gang of Four, only Rogers and Owen were MPs - Jenkins and Williams weren't but would win by-elections.
The Conservatives moved against leaders in 1990 and 2003 when it appeared obvious that not only were such leaders electoral liabilities but alternative figures would be much more electorally appealing.
Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
People like Corbyn do not understand that the less well off do not aspire to a comprehensive education nor a council house.
Both may be better than nothing, but they are hardly the height of excellence. A good education and their own home (capital asset included) is what people want.
How can Corbyn and co understand? Almost none of them actually come from a background that has lived a council house and a comprehensive, let alone the fear of kids carrying knives and so on.
The Tories many not understand poverty, but they understand aspiration.
No, he wasn't making any claim for himself in terms of his putative defection being of any importance, just that it's what he and - he believes - others would have done in response to a Benn victory.
In fact, he wasn't even a PR bod in 1981; he was a researcher for Albert Booth, Labour's Shadow Transport Secretary.
Do I sense a possible contribution for alternatehistory.com ?
There are some rumours going around that Trump has got another 2 big names to endorse him before Iowa. I'm only mentioning them because just a few moments ago Bob (the Bore) Dole came out of the dead:
"“I question his allegiance to the party,” Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. “I don’t know how often you’ve heard him say the word ‘Republican’ — not very often.” Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word “conservative,” Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: “extremist.” '
"The only person who could stop Mr. Cruz from capturing the nomination? “I think it’s Trump,” Mr. Dole said, adding that Mr. Trump was “gaining a little.” "
The pattern is similar with Branstad yesterday, Trump is attracting a lot of allies just because they hate Cruz more than Trump.
What spectacular implicit damning with faint praise: Trump would fare better than delivering cataclysmic losses.
Yes. It spells doom for the Republicans I am afraid if they are reduced to this. Better to wheel out Dole himself. I had the sad experience of catching a tiny bit of Palin and Trump on the news. Quite grotesque. One thing did allow it to make sense though. The reporter pointed out that Palin was basically a reality TV star these days. For her as well as Trump being grotesque is how they make their living. The Only Way Is Nomination.
Some of the things Trump says you would be certain it was one of those faux reality shows where they engineer the drama by getting the "actors" to say something outlandish...
This week on "Keeping up with the Kard----Trumps"....Donald says Mexicans are rapist and drug dealers...then later he says all Muslims should be banned...
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
People like Corbyn do not understand that the less well off do not aspire to a comprehensive education nor a council house.
Both may be better than nothing, but they are hardly the height of excellence. A good education and their own home (capital asset included) is what people want.
How can Corbyn and co understand? Almost none of them actually come from a background that has lived a council house and a comprehensive, let alone the fear of kids carrying knives and so on.
The Tories many not understand poverty, but they understand aspiration.
It was interesting from the polling the other day, something like 45% of people said Corbyn had taken Labour to the left and that was a bad thing. He is fighting todays society as if it is the 70's and Socialism is a popular alternative, rather than a niche hipster movement.
The split of 1981 was purely one at the top of the party, over policies that back then where seen as a matter of life or death (cold war, europe, CND, monetarism).
The base didn't follow, the SDP was simply absorbed into the Liberals over time because it failed to gain the support of ordinary people outside the small circle of Labour centrists, because most Labour voters where opposed to at least one of the things that the SDP espoused.
That's just not right in a number of ways. The division had existed over defence and European policy since Gaitskell and Labour was anti-Europe in the 1950s and early 1960s. The causes of the final break included (and here's the modern parallel) the infiltration of CLPs by militant and other groups and the de-selection of "moderate" MPs.
In the area where I was an active Liberal, we had an infux of ex-Labour activists as well as new SDP members who had never been in any political party. I remember at the 1987 election count being surrounded by a group of Labour activists and the first thing they asked was whether I was a Liberal or a Social Democrat. On telling them I was a Liberal, they became friendly and cheerful but their hatred for the "traitors" as one of them called them knew no bounds.
The infiltration of CLPs by Momentum and others and the possible de-selection of sitting MPs could be the catalyst but of course of the original Gang of Four, only Rogers and Owen were MPs - Jenkins and Williams weren't but would win by-elections.
The Conservatives moved against leaders in 1990 and 2003 when it appeared obvious that not only were such leaders electoral liabilities but alternative figures would be much more electorally appealing.
But your post leaves off the whole policy matter, if in 1981 in midst of the cold war and mass economic crisis people failed to be attracted by the SDP, then why should they now?
The MP's left but the voters didn't follow. No one is going to vote for a splitting MP because he was afraid of deselection.
@dancrawford85: Neale Coleman has quit as Jeremy Corbyn's head of rebuttal after a row with Seumas Milne, says the Times (£): https://t.co/28aJO10y7G
LOL....Can a day go by without Milne causing a f##k up. The Guardian might be getting back the village idiot sooner than they think, not that the new editor will mind from what I understand.
Coleman, who despite political differences and being Ken's man, was the one man Boris kept on at City Hall, because Team Boris thought he was doing a good job with organizing the Olympics. So another vaguely component individual has walked out.
There are some rumours going around that Trump has got another 2 big names to endorse him before Iowa. I'm only mentioning them because just a few moments ago Bob (the Bore) Dole came out of the dead:
"“I question his allegiance to the party,” Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. “I don’t know how often you’ve heard him say the word ‘Republican’ — not very often.” Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word “conservative,” Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: “extremist.” '
"The only person who could stop Mr. Cruz from capturing the nomination? “I think it’s Trump,” Mr. Dole said, adding that Mr. Trump was “gaining a little.” "
The pattern is similar with Branstad yesterday, Trump is attracting a lot of allies just because they hate Cruz more than Trump.
From the way you phrased that I thought Bob Dole was using twitter & I nearly fell off my chair!
@ScottyNational: Oil rout: Fears of an oil rout across the world halted after SNP's Dennis Robertson confirms again that there is no crisis. World thanks him
I can imagine that it really is a very hard decision for May, much harder than it seems to an armchair general like myself.
Firstly, she could be one of the favourites for the leadership whatever happens.
Secondly, does she really want to go against the first Tory leader in a generation to win a majority? It's not a trivial thing.
Thirdly, though she could become Prime Minister in the aftermath of a Leave win, does she want to become Prime Minister in those circumstances? In the time she would have in office, orchestrating Leave and getting it through Parliament would be her entire agenda. There would be no opportunity to do anything else. If she is not an absolutely committed leaver then that's not such a great prospect.
Fourthly and conversely, for a politician becoming Prime Minister, climbing to the top of the greasy poll, is perhaps worth anything and everything.
So what to do?
I don't think she's a natural eurosceptic; I do think she's serious about controlling immigration and wanting to be Prime Minister.
I think she wants to wait and see what really materialises from the renegotiation, and then decide once she knows all the facts and the lie of the land. That includes where opinion polls point once Cameron's deal is factored in. But she also knows that might be too late.
I think ideally she'd prefer to Remain in the EU *and* control immigration - i.e. get a very substantial deal on free movement - and then to campaign for the leadership on her own terms in 2019. But that's not on the table. So she has to decide: Leave, or a qualified Remain.
I think she knows Leave means resigning as Home Secretary (if not during the campaign, then shortly after, with her job probably going to Boris) and if she loses badly she's out of politics for good.
If she loses narrowly, and the EU deal all goes Pete Tong, she still has a fair shot in 2019/2020, and - of course - if Leave win she's in pole position for PM.
Remain means she keeps her job, until Cameron goes, but she'll always be seen as a big fearty and will have virtually no chance of winning the MPs to make the members ballot. Which I couldn't see her winning anyway in those circumstances.
It's a make or break decision for her: longlasting Home Secretary who basically failed on immigration despite a few feathers in her cap, the woman who gambled everything and lost or the PM who took Britain out of the EU.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
If they want us to stay so much they can bloody well make it more attractive for us to do so, then.
Whereas it sometimes feel as if they treat us like the fat girl invited to the cool girl's party. They don't really want her there. They'd much rather hang out with the pretty attractive popular girl but at least there's someone they can shag if all else fails. And the fat girl has the car with a big boot and brings all the booze which the others conveniently forget to repay her for.
Just like the no shit sherlock reports from the pollsters and Labour party, time for the BBC...
A report into cases of sexual abuse by Jimmy Savile linked to the BBC will criticise the corporation's culture, according to a news website that says it has seen a leaked draft. Exaro said retired judge Dame Janet Smith's draft report says the BBC had a "deferential culture", "untouchable stars" and "above the law" managers.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
The Remain strategy is:
(1) Project Fear™ http://tinyurl.com/j8vjygn (2) Everyone Nice wants us to stay; everyone Nasty want us to go [not unrelated to (1)]
@dancrawford85: Neale Coleman has quit as Jeremy Corbyn's head of rebuttal after a row with Seumas Milne, says the Times (£): https://t.co/28aJO10y7G
No doubt Diane Abbott will be all over the media later, rolling her eyes and huffing a good riddance to Coleman, Evil Tory and Enemy of the Revolution.
"The party is doing less well when it comes to attracting rural dwellers, elderly people and those struggling to make ends meet, leaked documents show."
That seems to fit the profile of the average conservative, apart from the last bit.
Attracting the average conservative is the only way you'll ever get close to power again, remember?
Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
Corbyn's supporters are young hipsters with beards, clowns like Owen Jones, and Tabitha/Jasper Junior Doctor types enjoying their moments of ra-ra-revolution. If it all goes wrong, there are rich parents to fall back on.
Same f##king idiots who gave Russell Brand all his "Trews News" videos a watch. Thank god that shit is gone, one less thing to pollute my twitter timeline.
Has that other guy.. used to be a drag artist( (just remembered Paul O'grady) who said he would leave the UK if the Tories won... quit? and what about loudmouth Charlotte?
Whichever side of the fence you fall on, it seems wrong that our political debate is being swayed by an American bank. I am undecided yet but makes me want to vote out in protest.
Yup - associating the Remain campaign with banks and with one particularly loathed Squid-like US bank is brilliant PR. Really brilliant.
What next: French farmers? "C'est necessaire que les Anglais restent dans l'Union Europeenne. Nous avons besoin de l'argent du Royaume-Uni."
Guy Verhofstadt has apparently agreed to come to the UK to argue the case for remaining in the EU.
The conditions for leaving are almost perfect.
And yet, I expect, Leave will snatch defeat from the jaws of a possible victory (though I have always thought Remain the most likely to win).
Each campaign is doing its best to lose.
The weight of the Establishment favours Remain. Events favour Leave.
I suppose the implication of this thread's header is that Remain is going to win the EU referendum easily because the phone polling puts them miles ahead whereas it's the phone polls that have the race as a close contest.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
IMO this is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
Sorry to interrupt, but economic events are taking place and oil is crashing at a rate that if it continues for another month the price of it will reach 0$.
Happy to bet oil doesn't reach $0/barrel
Whats the hard floor ?
People said it was $30, now they are talking about $25. I'm not an oil trader, but I think $16 is as low as it can go before it basically costs more to pump it out of the ground and ship it on tankers than to just leave it in the ground.
There are different hard floors: a one week hard floor, caused by oil sitting in tankers that absolutely has to be moved because stirring it is expensive. And a three month hard floor which is probably the lifting cost of the 85% percentile barrel of oil. Which I would reckon is probably around $26-27. (It's a number that falls if the USD rises, of course, as that cuts the cost of extraction in Russia, etc)
Sorry to interrupt, but economic events are taking place and oil is crashing at a rate that if it continues for another month the price of it will reach 0$.
Happy to bet oil doesn't reach $0/barrel
Whats the hard floor ?
People said it was $30, now they are talking about $25. I'm not an oil trader, but I think $16 is as low as it can go before it basically costs more to pump it out of the ground and ship it on tankers than to just leave it in the ground.
There are different hard floors: a one week hard floor, caused by oil sitting in tankers that absolutely has to be moved because stirring it is expensive. And a three month hard floor which is probably the lifting cost of the 85% percentile barrel of oil. Which I would reckon is probably around $26-27. (It's a number that falls if the USD rises, of course, as that cuts the cost of extraction in Russia, etc)
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
*If* we vote to leave (which I'd put at 20-25%) I wouldn't be surprised if Sweden, Denmark, Finland and possibly the Netherlands and Estonia join us within a decade.
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn 16m16 minutes ago Washington, DC Gravis, otoh, shows Trump 35, Kasich 15. Never thought I'd mention a Gravis poll, but if the conversation is ARG & UNH, then anything goes
I can imagine that it really is a very hard decision for May, much harder than it seems to an armchair general like myself.
Firstly, she could be one of the favourites for the leadership whatever happens.
Secondly, does she really want to go against the first Tory leader in a generation to win a majority? It's not a trivial thing.
Thirdly, though she could become Prime Minister in the aftermath of a Leave win, does she want to become Prime Minister in those circumstances? In the time she would have in office, orchestrating Leave and getting it through Parliament would be her entire agenda. There would be no opportunity to do anything else. If she is not an absolutely committed leaver then that's not such a great prospect.
Fourthly and conversely, for a politician becoming Prime Minister, climbing to the top of the greasy poll, is perhaps worth anything and everything.
So what to do?
I don't think she's a natural eurosceptic; I do think she's serious about controlling immigration and wanting to be Prime Minister.
I think she wants to wait and see what really materialises from the renegotiation, and then decide once she knows all the facts and the lie of the land. That includes where opinion polls point once Cameron's deal is factored in. But she also knows that might be too late.
I think ideally she'd prefer to Remain in the EU *and* control immigration - i.e. get a very substantial deal on free movement - and then to campaign for the leadership on her own terms in 2019. But that's not on the table. So she has to decide: Leave, or a qualified Remain.
I think she knows Leave means resigning as Home Secretary (if not during the campaign, then shortly after, with her job probably going to Boris) and if she loses badly she's out of politics for good.
If she loses narrowly, and the EU deal all goes Pete Tong, she still has a fair shot in 2019/2020, and - of course - if Leave win she's in pole position for PM.
Remain means she keeps her job, until Cameron goes, but she'll always be seen as a big fearty and will have virtually no chance of winning the MPs to make the members ballot. Which I couldn't see her winning anyway in those circumstances.
It's a make or break decision for her: longlasting Home Secretary who basically failed on immigration despite a few feathers in her cap, the woman who gambled everything and lost or the PM who took Britain out of the EU.
What a decision to make. She's torn.
Yeah. If she ceases to be Home Sec, there's nowhere for her to go, other than the back benches or PM.
Sorry to interrupt, but economic events are taking place and oil is crashing at a rate that if it continues for another month the price of it will reach 0$.
Happy to bet oil doesn't reach $0/barrel
Whats the hard floor ?
People said it was $30, now they are talking about $25. I'm not an oil trader, but I think $16 is as low as it can go before it basically costs more to pump it out of the ground and ship it on tankers than to just leave it in the ground.
There are different hard floors: a one week hard floor, caused by oil sitting in tankers that absolutely has to be moved because stirring it is expensive. And a three month hard floor which is probably the lifting cost of the 85% percentile barrel of oil. Which I would reckon is probably around $26-27. (It's a number that falls if the USD rises, of course, as that cuts the cost of extraction in Russia, etc)
For stirring, read storing. Damn smart phones
I was wondering if this was some new procedure for handling oil - like making an omelet.
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn 16m16 minutes ago Washington, DC Gravis, otoh, shows Trump 35, Kasich 15. Never thought I'd mention a Gravis poll, but if the conversation is ARG & UNH, then anything goes
Split pack, fifteen point lead... at least second place in Iowa, potentially first... don't see Trump losing this.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
Finland has very serious problems: a large part of its economy is oriented towards Russia, which is disastrous. Also, Nokia - once Europe's largest company - has gone into terminal decline.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
This is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
*If* we vote to leave (which I'd put at 20-25%) I wouldn't be surprised if Sweden, Denmark, Finland and possibly the Netherlands and Estonia join us within a decade.
Support for the Euro is very strong in the Netherlands, though. It's 75:25 on the The euro has been good for the Netherlands question, which is one of the highest in the whole eurozone
Sorry to interrupt, but economic events are taking place and oil is crashing at a rate that if it continues for another month the price of it will reach 0$.
Happy to bet oil doesn't reach $0/barrel
Whats the hard floor ?
People said it was $30, now they are talking about $25. I'm not an oil trader, but I think $16 is as low as it can go before it basically costs more to pump it out of the ground and ship it on tankers than to just leave it in the ground.
There are different hard floors: a one week hard floor, caused by oil sitting in tankers that absolutely has to be moved because stirring it is expensive. And a three month hard floor which is probably the lifting cost of the 85% percentile barrel of oil. Which I would reckon is probably around $26-27. (It's a number that falls if the USD rises, of course, as that cuts the cost of extraction in Russia, etc)
I guess we'll see. My estimate is based on nothing but gut instinct so it is very unlikely to be correct. I should stick to technology!
@dancrawford85: Neale Coleman has quit as Jeremy Corbyn's head of rebuttal after a row with Seumas Milne, says the Times (£): https://t.co/28aJO10y7G
No doubt Diane Abbott will be all over the media later, rolling her eyes and huffing a good riddance to Coleman, Evil Tory and Enemy of the Revolution.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
*If* we vote to leave (which I'd put at 20-25%) I wouldn't be surprised if Sweden, Denmark, Finland and possibly the Netherlands and Estonia join us within a decade.
Support for the Euro is very strong in the Netherlands, though. It's 75:25 on the The euro has been good for the Netherlands question, which is one of the highest in the whole eurozone
Yes. But you're allowed to keep the currency when you leave a Union. Because it belongs to you. Or something
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn 16m16 minutes ago Washington, DC Gravis, otoh, shows Trump 35, Kasich 15. Never thought I'd mention a Gravis poll, but if the conversation is ARG & UNH, then anything goes
Split pack, fifteen point lead... at least second place in Iowa, potentially first... don't see Trump losing this.
The one sure thing is that Trump is leading in N.H. by 20 points, but against who?
I leave you with this, as bonus night reading material:
"Sarah Palin, a commercial fisherman from Wasilla, told her husband on Tuesday she was driving to Anchorage to shop at Costco. Instead, she headed straight for Ivana.
And there, at J.C. Penney's cosmetic department, was Ivana, the former Mrs. Donald Trump, sitting at a table next to a photograph of herself. She wore a light-colored pantsuit and pink fingernail polish. Her blonde hair was coiffed in a bouffant French twist.
''We want to see Ivana,'' said Palin, who admittedly smells like salmon for a large part of the summer, ''because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture.'' "
NB - IDS does have issues with Dominic Cummings going back to when IDS was Tory leader
I think far too much prominence is being given to the potential influence that individual UK politicians can have on the result of the EU referendum, with the exception of Cameron.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
This is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
I am not a committed Leaver but I do see a lot of European leaders saying that they want us to remain but then being very reluctant to do anything concrete to address the UK's concerns. And yet when other countries have concerns e.g. the Southern European states in relation to the migration issue etc, all of a sudden all sorts of EU laws which apparently cannot be tampered with in any way when the UK has an issue suddenly become extraordinarily flexible.
And so it feels as if we're being taken for mugs rather than treated as a serious important and successful country which contributes a great deal financially, which has a successful and long-standing stable democratic tradition (by contrast, frankly, with many of our European friends) and with a great deal more to contribute, if only the others were prepared to listen rather than constantly lecture us about why we're not more like them. And if we're too far apart then better to divorce amicably and forge a new relationship which might be better for both in the long run.
Pro Remain Tory Ministers are now s**t scared that the ongoing migrant crisis will persuade even more people to leave the EU. Desperately wanting the referendum in June before another influx of immigrants hit the EU.
UK being forced to take more refugees by EU or the Dublin Agreement will be pulled.
In other words - Remain are sunk. There is absolutely NOTHING that can help them.
You would have thought after the MySpace disaster, Rup wouldn't want to touch it with a barge pole. It would be funny, the lefty twitter warriors would explode in rage if he did buy it.
NB - IDS does have issues with Dominic Cummings going back to when IDS was Tory leader
Cummings is supposedly what is preventing a Leave.EU and Vote Leave merger.
Yes, didn't Cummings spill the beans that IDS and David Davies were more interested in gossiping about Cherie Blair's flat purchase than running an opposition.
@dancrawford85: Neale Coleman has quit as Jeremy Corbyn's head of rebuttal after a row with Seumas Milne, says the Times (£): https://t.co/28aJO10y7G
No doubt Diane Abbott will be all over the media later, rolling her eyes and huffing a good riddance to Coleman, Evil Tory and Enemy of the Revolution.
This makes me think he may crash and burn (I live in hope). Coleman was the only member of Corbyn's team who was a) competent and b) not hated by large parts of the party. They can't keep retrenching to the true believes without losing support from the unions and soft left. It feels like his natural supporters are starting to distance thmselves a bit.
Owen jones has increasingly raised the question as to whether he is a transitional figure and people like Lisa nandy have hardly rallied round the flag.
If you are going to surround yourself with unpleasant people in politics they better be effective - Milne et al aren't.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
This is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
I am not a committed Leaver but I do see a lot of European leaders saying that they want us to remain but then being very reluctant to do anything concrete to address the UK's concerns. And yet when other countries have concerns e.g. the Southern European states in relation to the migration issue etc, all of a sudden all sorts of EU laws which apparently cannot be tampered with in any way when the UK has an issue suddenly become extraordinarily flexible.
And so it feels as if we're being taken for mugs rather than treated as a serious important and successful country which contributes a great deal financially, which has a successful and long-standing stable democratic tradition (by contrast, frankly, with many of our European friends) and with a great deal more to contribute, if only the others were prepared to listen rather than constantly lecture us about why we're not more like them. And if we're too far apart then better to divorce amicably and forge a new relationship which might be better for both in the long run.
That sentiment is widespread, and probably enough on its own to take Leave to 40-45%.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
Finland has very serious problems: a large part of its economy is oriented towards Russia, which is disastrous. Also, Nokia - once Europe's largest company - has gone into terminal decline.
They sold their mapping division to a consortium of German car companies for a song and they allowed a Microsoft placeman to hollow out their dominant mobile division. Nokia has made a series of poor decisions and now they are paying the price. They are an infrastructure company with no major customers. It isn't going to be easy for them to compete with the cheaper Chinese 4G/wireless infrastructure companies or even with Ericsson who are bigger, more diversified and haven't got to deal with the shitty legacy of Siemens bollocksing things up.
Talking of Twitter, I find their website just about the most user-hostile piece of software since the Unix 'vi' editor.
Does anyone know:
(a) How you get the display into a vaguely sensible font size, rather than some huge font which means that even on a large screen you can't actually read the tweets?
(b) How you do a search on a subject? If I search on (say) 'Osborne', I get his account showing up, but that's not what I'm looking for.
Thanks Mystified techie with 40 years experience in IT from Sussex.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
Finland has very serious problems: a large part of its economy is oriented towards Russia, which is disastrous. Also, Nokia - once Europe's largest company - has gone into terminal decline.
They sold their mapping division to a consortium of German car companies for a song and they allowed a Microsoft placeman to hollow out their dominant mobile division. Nokia has made a series of poor decisions and now they are paying the price. They are an infrastructure company with no major customers. It isn't going to be easy for them to compete with the cheaper Chinese 4G/wireless infrastructure companies or even with Ericsson who are bigger, more diversified and haven't got to deal with the shitty legacy of Siemens bollocksing things up.
Mildly interesting article, but the lefty meltdown below the line is a thing of rare beauty
Labour supporters on the Grauniad (there is a typo in this article - BoJo's full name is incorrectly spelt) really don't seem to like the electorate much, do they....
Well, I largely stay off PB for a few days and come back to find discussions about poppers and all sorts of stuff.
Dear me! I can read this sort of stuff at work you know.
Does that make me an insider?!
You tell me! I thought you were at the respectable end! #AnotherCyclefreeIdealShattered
I am eminently respectable. When I want to be
I was just curious about what you were reading at work...
Trader communications.......
Ah. Yes. Interesting lot aren't they.
The "interesting" stuff can be quite tedious, not to mention depressing, when seen all too regularly. I do pine for a sentence, now and again. Even punctuation. A coherent thought would be fantastic. And if it were in English that would be worth celebrating.
As it is, it's a jumbled mix of the sex fantasies of 14 year olds, star wars references, incoherent letters occasionally resembling words, "jokes" (Oh God, the jokes!) and the sort of banalities heard on the last tube train after a football match.
Sometimes you'd be hard pressed to remember that you're dealing with higher primates.
No, he wasn't making any claim for himself in terms of his putative defection being of any importance, just that it's what he and - he believes - others would have done in response to a Benn victory.
In fact, he wasn't even a PR bod in 1981; he was a researcher for Albert Booth, Labour's Shadow Transport Secretary.
Do I sense a possible contribution for alternatehistory.com ?
Possibly. I need to finish the Taft / WWI / No Russian Communist revolution timeline first.
'I do see a lot of European leaders saying that they want us to remain but then being very reluctant to do anything concrete to address the UK's concerns'
Well that isn't too surprising for two reasons
1) Most European leaders are fully signed up to the EU's 'destiny' being a federal states of Europe. As the UK's concerns directly cut across that goal there isn't much wiggle room
2) European leaders have seen our PM conducting an openly fake 'renegotiation' process with lots of nods and winks. They don't think our politicians are serious about wanting a real change in our relations with the EU and assume our politicians can 'deliver' the public.
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 1h1 hour ago Toby Perkins Retweeted Telegraph Politics Ok, so I've read this,but still don't know what poppers do or relevance to gay men particularly, can some1 tell me?
I'm a girl. Star Wars is not OK. Or, rather, it's OK if you want to see a film with daleks and lasers (or stuff like that). But obsessing about it endlessly is a bit, well, odd.
On matters EU, perhaps more interesting was the exhortation of the Finnish Foreign Minister to Britain to remain in the EU. I had thought Cameron had coveted Finland as a potential ally in the re-negotiation but clearly the Finns want us to stay as well.
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
Finland has very serious problems: a large part of its economy is oriented towards Russia, which is disastrous. Also, Nokia - once Europe's largest company - has gone into terminal decline.
They sold their mapping division to a consortium of German car companies for a song and they allowed a Microsoft placeman to hollow out their dominant mobile division. Nokia has made a series of poor decisions and now they are paying the price. They are an infrastructure company with no major customers. It isn't going to be easy for them to compete with the cheaper Chinese 4G/wireless infrastructure companies or even with Ericsson who are bigger, more diversified and haven't got to deal with the shitty legacy of Siemens bollocksing things up.
Nokia were killed by the Apple iPhone.
Or, rather, their inability to respond to it.
I used the prototype Meamo phone back in late 2007, it was Nokia's internal response to the iPhone. The board and the 1000 committees just never got around to releasing it as they didn't want to cannibalise sales of Symbian phones. If they had released the prototype (which had multi-touch in built and used a capacitive digitiser like the original iPhone) as their "next big thing" it would have been enough to keep them relevant. By the time they released the N900 in 2009 it was too late and Android had become the non-iOS challenger in the market and they hired Elop, a Microsoft placeman who destroyed their mobile division overnight by releasing smartphones exclusively with the unfinished Windows Phone platform.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
IMO this is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
You might have a point were it not for the fact that big media, big business and all mainstream political parties have swung behind EU "yes" campaigns in several other EU countries in the recent past, and lost.
I agree that Remain has got itself in gear this year, whereas Leave (which started slightly earlier) is still leaderless.
The Roman Catholic Church lecturing us on membership when they carved out their own mini statelet to avoid being accountable to democratic law seems like sheer cheek.
Both sides in this debate are doing best to confirm stereotype of themselves. A bunch of epitist patronisers versus a bunch of bickering amateurs. If only you could vote against both.
On topic, I don't think that either telephone or online pollsters covered themselves with glory in this campaign. You're only as good as your eve of poll figure.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
IMO this is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
You might have a point were it not for the fact that big media, big business and all mainstream political parties have swung behind EU "yes" campaigns in several other EU countries in the recent past, and lost.
I agree that Remain has got itself in gear this year, whereas Leave (which started slightly earlier) is still leaderless.
That is a problem.
Until Dave spells out what his deal will achieve and how it will be delivered (memorandum or treaty change) it will be hard for the Tory leave side to get into gear. It is why he delayed the deal from December to February, and why Feb will become April and we well have a June referendum. Leaving as little time as possible for sceptical Tories to get their point across making sure the like of Farage are doing most of the campaigning.
Big Business need to be careful their endorsements of the EU don't backfire..
This is wrong. Of course the already committed Leavers will see every intervention on the Remain side as further proof that the EU is an evil empire which exists only to shaft the UK. But they're going to vote Leave anyway.
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
I am not a committed Leaver but I do see a lot of European leaders saying that they want us to remain but then being very reluctant to do anything concrete to address the UK's concerns. And yet when other countries have concerns e.g. the Southern European states in relation to the migration issue etc, all of a sudden all sorts of EU laws which apparently cannot be tampered with in any way when the UK has an issue suddenly become extraordinarily flexible.
And so it feels as if we're being taken for mugs rather than treated as a serious important and successful country which contributes a great deal financially, which has a successful and long-standing stable democratic tradition (by contrast, frankly, with many of our European friends) and with a great deal more to contribute, if only the others were prepared to listen rather than constantly lecture us about why we're not more like them. And if we're too far apart then better to divorce amicably and forge a new relationship which might be better for both in the long run.
That sentiment is widespread, and probably enough on its own to take Leave to 40-45%.
Not close enough.
Leave should obviously aim for victory, but a Remain margin of victory of <5% (say 52% to 48%) would be good enough to ensure it doesn't come off the table.
I'm a girl. Star Wars is not OK. Or, rather, it's OK if you want to see a film with daleks and lasers (or stuff like that). But obsessing about it endlessly is a bit, well, odd.
And bloody tiresome to read.
....*ducks and hides*......
So what if you're a girl???
The heroine of Star Wars VII was ....a girl - Rey, played by Daisy Ridley!
Talking of Twitter, I find their website just about the most user-hostile piece of software since the Unix 'vi' editor.
Outrageous remark! It's the nearest thing computing has to omnipotence. If you found a Unix server on Mars you could still use the vi editor to hack around with it.
Comments
Doesn't surprise me if you ever see the anti capitalist / students protestors loads of them were rich kids. The middle class & poor kids to busy keeping out of trouble so they can get a job. Where as your Charlie Gilmours, pennies reds & tw@ts in £600 coats are at the latest demo smashing stuff up, knowing that daddy will bail them out & make sure uni doesn't kick them out & eventually sort out some work opportunities.
This is like a supermarket price war.
The question is for how low and how long can supermarkets go until they go bust, arguably the one with lower cash needs and greater cash reserves has the best chances of survival (in that case the top 3 will be the USA, Norway and Russia, the lowest 3 will be Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar)
I had the sad experience of catching a tiny bit of Palin and Trump on the news. Quite grotesque. One thing did allow it to make sense though. The reporter pointed out that Palin was basically a reality TV star these days. For her as well as Trump being grotesque is how they make their living. The Only Way Is Nomination.
Personally, I don't think they're ideologically committed either way. They just see leaving as potentially disruptive to their business models/plans and revenue projections, and therefore a risk, and would therefore rather not have the bother thank you.
In the area where I was an active Liberal, we had an infux of ex-Labour activists as well as new SDP members who had never been in any political party. I remember at the 1987 election count being surrounded by a group of Labour activists and the first thing they asked was whether I was a Liberal or a Social Democrat. On telling them I was a Liberal, they became friendly and cheerful but their hatred for the "traitors" as one of them called them knew no bounds.
The infiltration of CLPs by Momentum and others and the possible de-selection of sitting MPs could be the catalyst but of course of the original Gang of Four, only Rogers and Owen were MPs - Jenkins and Williams weren't but would win by-elections.
The Conservatives moved against leaders in 1990 and 2003 when it appeared obvious that not only were such leaders electoral liabilities but alternative figures would be much more electorally appealing.
Both may be better than nothing, but they are hardly the height of excellence. A good education and their own home (capital asset included) is what people want.
How can Corbyn and co understand? Almost none of them actually come from a background that has lived a council house and a comprehensive, let alone the fear of kids carrying knives and so on.
The Tories many not understand poverty, but they understand aspiration.
This week on "Keeping up with the Kard----Trumps"....Donald says Mexicans are rapist and drug dealers...then later he says all Muslims should be banned...
The Finnish FM did however say "without Britain there is no EU" which might be an attractive sentiment to some.
I wonder if Finland might join us in EFTA once we've voted to LEAVE.
But your post leaves off the whole policy matter, if in 1981 in midst of the cold war and mass economic crisis people failed to be attracted by the SDP, then why should they now?
The MP's left but the voters didn't follow.
No one is going to vote for a splitting MP because he was afraid of deselection.
Coleman, who despite political differences and being Ken's man, was the one man Boris kept on at City Hall, because Team Boris thought he was doing a good job with organizing the Olympics. So another vaguely component individual has walked out.
I think she wants to wait and see what really materialises from the renegotiation, and then decide once she knows all the facts and the lie of the land. That includes where opinion polls point once Cameron's deal is factored in. But she also knows that might be too late.
I think ideally she'd prefer to Remain in the EU *and* control immigration - i.e. get a very substantial deal on free movement - and then to campaign for the leadership on her own terms in 2019. But that's not on the table. So she has to decide: Leave, or a qualified Remain.
I think she knows Leave means resigning as Home Secretary (if not during the campaign, then shortly after, with her job probably going to Boris) and if she loses badly she's out of politics for good.
If she loses narrowly, and the EU deal all goes Pete Tong, she still has a fair shot in 2019/2020, and - of course - if Leave win she's in pole position for PM.
Remain means she keeps her job, until Cameron goes, but she'll always be seen as a big fearty and will have virtually no chance of winning the MPs to make the members ballot. Which I couldn't see her winning anyway in those circumstances.
It's a make or break decision for her: longlasting Home Secretary who basically failed on immigration despite a few feathers in her cap, the woman who gambled everything and lost or the PM who took Britain out of the EU.
What a decision to make. She's torn.
Whereas it sometimes feel as if they treat us like the fat girl invited to the cool girl's party. They don't really want her there. They'd much rather hang out with the pretty attractive popular girl but at least there's someone they can shag if all else fails. And the fat girl has the car with a big boot and brings all the booze which the others conveniently forget to repay her for.
A report into cases of sexual abuse by Jimmy Savile linked to the BBC will criticise the corporation's culture, according to a news website that says it has seen a leaked draft.
Exaro said retired judge Dame Janet Smith's draft report says the BBC had a "deferential culture", "untouchable stars" and "above the law" managers.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35368103
I could have told you all of the above for half the price.
I was just curious about what you were reading at work...
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4670431.ece
(1) Project Fear™ http://tinyurl.com/j8vjygn
(2) Everyone Nice wants us to stay; everyone Nasty want us to go [not unrelated to (1)]
It remains to be seen whether that's enough.
The weight of the Establishment favours Remain. Events favour Leave.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/689891705974296576
What the uncommitted will hear, to the extent that they are paying attention, is a drip, drip of voices from a huge range of different sources recommending staying in. That range will include the Prime Minister (who is well regarded, and who will be running the very effective 'best of both worlds' line), much of the Conservative Party, most of the Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP, the unions, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the City, most business figures, the Vatican, our European friends, the US, and of course most importantly of all the BBC. Normal voters, who are commendably cynical, won't be impressed by some of those voices, and in any case won't believe much of what is said, on either side. But they'll tend, very strongly, in the absence of a clear reason to vote otherwise, to take the safe option, which is Remain.
As I have been saying since 2008, it's a hell of tough gig for the Leave side to counter all that lot. Unfortunately, from their point of view, they haven't even started to address the issue of how they counter that wall of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Too late now, I think.
"They were intellectually lazy and thought themselves intellectually superior."
Which sums up Labour under Miliband quite accurately, and the situation is worse with Corbyn.
LEAVE = British and proud!
REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
Trump 34 +2
Cruz 14 +8
Bush 10 +2
Rubio 10 -4
Christie 6 -3
Kasich 6 -1
Paul 6 +4
Fiorina 4 -1
Carson 3 -2
Huckabee 1 0
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-trump-leads-cruz-climbs/index.html
Looks like the ARG poll was a fluke about Kasich, or not?
N.H. poll Gravis:
Trump 35 +6
Kasich 15 +10
Cruz 10 -2
Rubio 9 -1
Christie 8 0
Bush 7 -1
Fiorina 5 +1
Paul 3 -2
Carson 1 -6
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn 16m16 minutes ago Washington, DC
Gravis, otoh, shows Trump 35, Kasich 15. Never thought I'd mention a Gravis poll, but if the conversation is ARG & UNH, then anything goes
A. Because Brussels told him to
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596866462972784641
Iain Duncan Smith to go it alone in campaign to leave EU
Work and pensions secretary set to keep his distance from bickering Vote Leave and Leave.EU groups during run-up to referendum
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/iain-duncan-smith-to-go-it-alone-in-campaign-to-leave-eu
NB - IDS does have issues with Dominic Cummings going back to when IDS was Tory leader
Milne is doing a brilliant job, there’s not been a 24hr period when Labour were not the news.
I leave you with this, as bonus night reading material:
http://www.adn.com/article/20080902/alaskans-line-whiff-ivana-april-3-1996
"April 3, 1996"
"Sarah Palin, a commercial fisherman from Wasilla, told her husband on Tuesday she was driving to Anchorage to shop at Costco. Instead, she headed straight for Ivana.
And there, at J.C. Penney's cosmetic department, was Ivana, the former Mrs. Donald Trump, sitting at a table next to a photograph of herself. She wore a light-colored pantsuit and pink fingernail polish. Her blonde hair was coiffed in a bouffant French twist.
''We want to see Ivana,'' said Palin, who admittedly smells like salmon for a large part of the summer, ''because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture.'' "
Goodnight.
And so it feels as if we're being taken for mugs rather than treated as a serious important and successful country which contributes a great deal financially, which has a successful and long-standing stable democratic tradition (by contrast, frankly, with many of our European friends) and with a great deal more to contribute, if only the others were prepared to listen rather than constantly lecture us about why we're not more like them. And if we're too far apart then better to divorce amicably and forge a new relationship which might be better for both in the long run.
UK being forced to take more refugees by EU or the Dublin Agreement will be pulled.
In other words - Remain are sunk. There is absolutely NOTHING that can help them.
If Remain think 'nice' describes Goldmans or the Vatican they are even more out of touch with reality than I thought.
Who's next on the 'nice' list I wonder - arms dealers, tobacco companies, Kim-Jong-Un?
Owen jones has increasingly raised the question as to whether he is a transitional figure and people like Lisa nandy have hardly rallied round the flag.
If you are going to surround yourself with unpleasant people in politics they better be effective - Milne et al aren't.
His biggest fear on endorsements was the likes of Marine Le Pen endorsing Brexit.
Does anyone know:
(a) How you get the display into a vaguely sensible font size, rather than some huge font which means that even on a large screen you can't actually read the tweets?
(b) How you do a search on a subject? If I search on (say) 'Osborne', I get his account showing up, but that's not what I'm looking for.
Thanks
Mystified techie with 40 years experience in IT from Sussex.
Nokia were killed by the Apple iPhone.
Or, rather, their inability to respond to it.
As it is, it's a jumbled mix of the sex fantasies of 14 year olds, star wars references, incoherent letters occasionally resembling words, "jokes" (Oh God, the jokes!) and the sort of banalities heard on the last tube train after a football match.
Sometimes you'd be hard pressed to remember that you're dealing with higher primates.
Well that isn't too surprising for two reasons
1) Most European leaders are fully signed up to the EU's 'destiny' being a federal states of Europe. As the UK's concerns directly cut across that goal there isn't much wiggle room
2) European leaders have seen our PM conducting an openly fake 'renegotiation' process with lots of nods and winks. They don't think our politicians are serious about wanting a real change in our relations with the EU and assume our politicians can 'deliver' the public.
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 1h1 hour ago
Toby Perkins Retweeted Telegraph Politics
Ok, so I've read this,but still don't know what poppers do or relevance to gay men particularly, can some1 tell me?
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 32m32 minutes ago
Toby Perkins Retweeted Elaine Darlington
Yeah yeah I've got it now, thanks. Enough.
Mind you it was the first one i have seen at the Cinema
And bloody tiresome to read.
....*ducks and hides*......
Nokia killed Nokia.
Saw "Looper" on Sunday night on BBC3, so hopefully Rian Johnson should do a good job directing.
I agree that Remain has got itself in gear this year, whereas Leave (which started slightly earlier) is still leaderless.
That is a problem.
Both sides in this debate are doing best to confirm stereotype of themselves. A bunch of epitist patronisers versus a bunch of bickering amateurs. If only you could vote against both.
I wonder if it's worth reviving Mass Observation.
About that personal responsibility thing..
Leave should obviously aim for victory, but a Remain margin of victory of <5% (say 52% to 48%) would be good enough to ensure it doesn't come off the table.
The heroine of Star Wars VII was ....a girl - Rey, played by Daisy Ridley!
stephenkb: Lambeth Momentum - which covers 3 CLPs, aggregate membership close to 10,000 - had just 44 people bother to attend vote tonight.
"Psycho" is starting on Film4 right now!
:q!