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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast puts the focus on UKIP with leading academic expert Prof Matt Goodwin
This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast talks about UKIP and the upcoming EU referendum with Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent. Goodwin is one of the foremost experts on UKIP and is co-author of ‘Revolt on the Right’ (2015 political book of the year) and the more recently ‘UKIP: Inside the campaign to redraw the map of British politics’.
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"Think Labour looks out of touch now? Wait until the EU referendum campaign starts...
In arguing against Brexit, Labour will alienate precisely the same Eurosceptic working class voters it desperately needs to win back"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12084459/Think-Labour-looks-out-of-touch-now-Wait-until-the-EU-referendum-starts....html
'Everyone agrees, how could anyone possibly think that?
Unless they are a Tory, of course!'
8% swing to Conservatives as LDs hold Cornwall seat.
For example, on a uniform 60% turnout, if England voted out 51.5:48.5, for leave, the rUK would need to vote 34.7:65.3 for In to swing the result.....
http://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/just-how-much-swing-does-rest-of-uk.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
Will being pro EU harm Labour with the WWC? (who are no where near as single minded or "socially conservative" as some on here would claim). Possibly, but the contrary is also quite possible.
The Leave campaign will be led and dominated by those an the right of British politics who wish to strip away all the social protections that so many C2DE voters depend upon.
The Trade Unions will campaign for Remain, as will nearly all MPs and Labour members. The Remain campaign is a uniting force within Labour, and is very sellable to the WC (white or otherwise). Indeed it will help redefine what the future of the party is about. It is something for the Corbynites and Kendallites to find common ground over.
The EU will be seen as an essential social protection by many in a time of Tory hegemony.
I see Michael Portillo on the previous thread said we wouldn't Leave even if we voted Leave.
Whilst I don't literally agree with that i do agree that on a result like that we'd see prevarication and legal challenge.
It will be the Conservative backbenches that'd try to force the follow through.
@wildernessyrs
Their solution was to hire Andy Hornby with a brief to be radical and change the view that Halifax made small profits. By the time he had finished in 2008 he had indeed successfully got rid of those small profit margins. Unfortunately his radicalism had done this by turning them into thumping losses.
At this point I realised that economists are idiots.
"If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless
one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions."
re. junior doctors - Fox, could you let me know why there have to be penalties imposed on hospitals for the doctors working too many hours? Can the doctors not self-regulate?
re. the footie - as an AFC fan I appreciate the pressure put on us by LCFC because there is nothing more dangerous for Arsenal than thinking they are coasting it. We are never more vulnerable than when we are 2-1 up.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-course-increase-holyrood-majority-7182713
This argument most appeals to (and is made the most by) the nationalists who wish to use it as a casus belli for a second referendum.
What % of Europeans use the Internet at least once a week? By region. Southern & Eastern Europe levels are very low https://t.co/ystJpTAHoZ
HELP!! I see a weenie bit of FROST on the roofs opposite my flat. We're doomed!
That said I believe the polling shows only about 10% of people think a split EU ref vote would justify a second IndyRef.
Huge if true... https://t.co/WkqO6Ebe0L
Mr. K, aye, we had some ice (just a little) on the fields. Meg the dog wandered over [her first time encountering ice], and discovered the creaking when it's about to crack is quite alarming
Edited extra bit: on climate - was amused to hear DiCaprio bleating about the struggle to find cold weather for shooting The Revenant being proof of global warming. Four-five years ago he could've shot that film anywhere in Great Britain.
Many rotas have gaps in them due to recruitment and retention problems, and sometimes juniors will do these as Locums in their own department for extra pay. As a rota organiser I find it difficult to cover these gaps and am very grateful for these internal locums. External locums are more expensive, do not know the hospital and we do not know them and their skill set. There is clinical risk, but probably not as much as the risk of not staffing the rota at all.
The financial penalties are a way of keeping the rotas legal. I have looked at the new contracts implications for my dept. This is not easy as Hunt has been very vague about much of the detail. The main implication is that we will have more rota gaps to fill and fewer staff willing to work internal locums. It is going to be a real headache, and quite likely reduce our weekend staffing of junior doctors. There are not enough reliable locums to fill the gaps.
For instance today:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/687900476080320512
and https://twitter.com/breakingmoney/status/687896772958662657
So wherever he goes, he should use Rolls Royce engines to be successful
It was the shareholders and employees who lost out.
The Parliamentary report was damning:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-banks-hbos-idUKBRE93319B20130405
Maybe Marf could fix it.
The left have imposed legislative protections, true, but the freedom of movement and large-scale immigration has driven down wages at the bottom end while driving up rents and demand for local services (particularly in places towards the bottom of the scale). Those factors are far more visible than EU directive EU2016/1WTF or whatever.
So it sounds like staffing at the weekends under the current situation is problematic. Is not this one of the things that Jeremy Hunt is trying to address when he says a true 7-day NHS, where presumably rota distinctions disappear.
Or are you saying that regardless, people will try not to work weekends?
'Everyone agrees that Ruth Davidson is awesome, how could anyone possibly not think that? '
Survation leader approval ratings:
Sturgeon 27
Harvie 0
Davidson -6
Rennie -7
Dugdale -9
Keynes has been undermined over the years by a rigid application of his theories (or worse, parts of his theories), in a way he would never have done. He didn't help himself by calling his masterpiece a General Theory but all the same, he was a very dynamic economist, continually working to the data and the circumstances at hand. I find it highly unlikely that he would have prescribed the solutions of the 1930s to the problems of the 2010s.
I paid particular notice to Matthew Godwin's point (who I respect a lot) that the Paris Attack didn't move the polls at all, and the big issue for undecided voters of the middle class and middle aged voters is less likely to be immigration and more about a credible alternative model.
So far as I can see, the Paris attacks simply confirmed everyone's prejudices, whatever their pre-existing prejudices happened to be.
Mr. Divvie, ah, yes. Hague's spineless bed-wetting was not an edifying spectacle. If he's wrong, it's a scare tactic.
If he's right, and Scotland would rather be out of the UK and in the EU, and England/Wales/Northern Ireland would rather be out of the EU, then in what way does it make sense for the UK to be in the EU and Scotland to be in the UK?
Scotland has the freedom of self-determination (as exercised quite recently). The idea that means the rest of the UK should vote for something they don't want to placate Scots is as mad as the idea Scots should vote for Conservatives because the English don't like the SNP.
Speaking just for yourself, do you see the appeal of voting Leave to get a second referendum? It's hard to think of another situation that could get another vote in the next few decades.
I agree that it is hard to believe that the LibDems can even hold what they have, they are almost extinct , no talent and Willie Rennie is woeful. Their only hope is that some ex Labour will not go for SNP or Tories so they may get a few sympathy votes by default.
- and why can't these people wear ties? They just look scruffy.
The SCons are, as they have been for a long time, polling in the mid-teens. That gives somewhat over 80% of the voting public against the Cons, one way or another. Yet a net rating of -6 implies fairly substantial approval from supporters of other parties, or even more widespread abstentions.
Incidentally, if a third strike goes ahead, junior doctors will, apparently, walk out of A&E as well.
If I'm wrong, I apologize.
Nice to see Matt Goodwin agreeing with me.
I assume E is emergency, but am puzzling over the A.
The Paris Attacks led to an orgy of confirmation bias.
From a betting perspective, the 8/1 on Remain at 60-65% looks good, if still available.
Forget losing seats, Labour should make 300 gains in May’s elections
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/corbyns-labour/forget-losing-seats-labour-should-make-300-gains-in-mays-elections
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/hillarys-lead-disintegrates-she-now-doing-worse-2008-trump-surges
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35321522
Read why the pro-EU argument that we'll lose job creators when we #LeaveEU can be turfed out https://t.co/WD6WD9Grn7 https://t.co/mDOf9I0uui
Because they also, usually, don't want to be seen as xenophobes, many don't feel altogether comfortable voting UKIP, who as I said the other day have avoided looking like pure racists but do seem a bit fusty and dubious about foreigners. So voters morosely tell pollsters that immigration is an important issue but "nobody" seems to be addressing it, while on the whole stopping short of voting UKIP. A similar phenomenon is visible all over Europe, where anti-immigration parties have apparent ceilings of support until they break out into being about a lot of other things too.
Say Cameron said we wouldn't partake in the Greek bailout
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8588350/David-Cameron-We-wont-bail-out-Greece.html
Britain has been dragged into the eurozone’s efforts to rescue Greece through a Brussels legal manoeuvre that has angered London and complicated David Cameron’s efforts to renegotiate UK membership terms in the EU.
Disregarding strong objections from British ministers, the European Commission on Wednesday proposed using a mothballed EU-wide rescue fund — the European Financial Stability Mechanism — to give Greece the €7bn it needs to cover debt repayments on Monday.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d92bbe2-2b04-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3xInEGPvH
Ties are dead. An anachronism. Good riddance.
Mr. Jonathan, indeed. Probably makes a nice change for the newsreader too.
As someone who doesn't buy papers, it's also interesting to see what the front pages say.
The White Cross pram factory was literally down the road.
If the original Harry Ramsden's is gone then it's one less thing to do on my next trip to the UK.
We used to go to the Wetherby Whaler and walk up and down the street in Wetherby eating and it was great. Harry Ramsden's was great too. It's only 10 years ago!
Is this a subject of major importance or what?
I'd probably put myself at 9/10 for Leave. I'd probably be nearer your score if it were on how things stand now, but taking the longer view, I can't see us being in being in our interests.
Mr. B, I think the last fish restaurant I went to was Nash's [sp] in Leeds, which was very nice.