politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Star War images: Jedi Jezza and Stormtrooper Osbo
An old joke was given fresh legs just before Christmas when George Osborne set out to sprinkle some stardust on his image with an appearance at the premiere of Star Wars.
The reshuffle might make him look temporarily look weaker, but I'm not sure he has another option - he looks weak already given just how divided the Shadow Cabinet is (different views and all that, but on some pretty major issues some have indicated they barely tolerate him), so even if it drowns out other stories, the benefits of a bit more front bench support, even if not taken to the extremes of culling all the unworthy, might be preferable to the status quo.
I hope you've all taken note of my new beach body ready resolution.
I can't wait to see what Jezza does with his reshuffle. Diane as SFSec would be marvellous. But I'm expecting something outre and very amusing WTFery too.
The fundamental problem for him is that he has no-one with any talent to bring through. The left in the PLP, the Unions and the wider party have been intellectually moribund for years which is why we have Corbyn (helped by McDonell and Livingstone's long term acolytes) and not Iglesias or Tsipiras.
If he had competent or inspiring people to bring through a re-shuffle could be a sign of strength but promoting say Abbott (if it is she) would just emphasise his weakness. Apparently Burgon was the pick of the new left intake (sniggers). After that he's left with Clive Lewis, Cat Smith and Kate Osamor.
“Revenge is not very Jedi. It’s also not very new politics.”
We've already seen what the 'new politics' comprises. It's the same as the 'old politics', except it's wrapped up with a bow that the usual idiots will like.
The fundamental problem for him is that he has no-one with any talent to bring through. The left in the PLP, the Unions and the wider party have been intellectually moribund for years which is why we have Corbyn (helped by McDonell and Livingstone's long term acolytes) and not Iglesias or Tsipiras.
If he had competent or inspiring people to bring through a re-shuffle could be a sign of strength but promoting say Abbott (if it is she) would just emphasise his weakness. Apparently Burgon was the pick of the new left intake (sniggers). After that he's left with Clive Lewis, Cat Smith and Kate Osamor.
The fundamental problem for him is that he has no-one with any talent to bring through. The left in the PLP, the Unions and the wider party have been intellectually moribund for years which is why we have Corbyn (helped by McDonell and Livingstone's long term acolytes) and not Iglesias or Tsipiras.
If he had competent or inspiring people to bring through a re-shuffle could be a sign of strength but promoting say Abbott (if it is she) would just emphasise his weakness. Apparently Burgon was the pick of the new left intake (sniggers). After that he's left with Clive Lewis, Cat Smith and Kate Osamor.
Decent bloke but uninspiring I'm told. Never met him personally.
The police and CPS seem to be after him after being humiliated so badly at the time of his original incarceration. It feels like a very personal attack on this man.
“Revenge is not very Jedi. It’s also not very new politics.”
I believe Return of the Jedi was originally titled Revenge of the Jedi. They may have changed the name for the very reason revenge was not very Jedi like, although personally I think saying you are one thing and doing another would be very Jedi like, so decrying revenge while taking it would fit them.
If Osborne is Darth Vader, remember he hunted down and killed all of the Jedi except one and a couple of potentials (his children). It's pretty apt in that sense given how the Tories eviscerated Labour and the Lib Dems in May.
“Revenge is not very Jedi. It’s also not very new politics.”
I believe Return of the Jedi was originally titled Revenge of the Jedi. They may have changed the name for the very reason revenge was not very Jedi like, although personally I think saying you are one thing and doing another would be very Jedi like, so decrying revenge while taking it would fit them.
Wasn't it a fake title that Lucas deliberately had leaked in order to mislead?
Am I take it that Mr Brind will be joining the Labourites4Osborne movement?
I fear though that the Tories picking a leader who is statistically tied with Corbyn and who trailed Andy Burnham in "best PM" polls is surely too much to dream for.
If Osborne were Darth Vader, or Darth Maul, that wouldn't be a problem for him.
As for Corbyn being a Jedi, when faced with the Death Star, Luke blew the bloody thing up. He didn't try to negotiate with it.
Corbyn's position in Star Wars would be made so much easier had Palpatine declared the First Galactic People's Republic and appointed himself General Secretary instead of getting carried away with grandiose titles.
The police and CPS seem to be after him after being humiliated so badly at the time of his original incarceration. It feels like a very personal attack on this man.
It's perhaps more likely that he can no longer get a licence because of his criminal record... but has a firearm anyway.
Am I take it that Mr Brind will be joining the Labourites4Osborne movement?
I'll be voting for whoever is opposing Osborne. People just don't like him. Even Tories and right leaning types. People who "nothing" Dave and just find him bland but on the whole acceptable vehemently despise Osborne. Someone I know said it like this - "if something like a soul exists, it is very clear that Osborne doesn't have one". I think that's the problem. Something about him just feels off, you can't really tell what it is, but it's there. I know people who have met him and they all say he is a nice guy, nicer than Dave in real life, but I also know lots of people who said the same about Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, and look where they ended up.
Perhaps I am just too much of a cynic, but this feels right out of the Francis Urquart playbook.
Take an existing weakness of an enemy, set him up and watch him fall.
You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment....
Lets not forget that UKIP guy (Bird?) who tripped up the same way.
All these anti-Corynism Labour "moderates" not doing themselves a lot of favours.
Afternoon all
Simon Danczuk was a marked man for his outspokenness against the Labour leadership and has helpfully provided them with the pretext for his suspension.
Must admit I’ve very little sympathy for him over such daft behaviour – however this does store up problems for Jeremy and accusations of cronyism when a loyalists MP actually does something illegal or far worse and is not treated equally or punished accordingly.
The police and CPS seem to be after him after being humiliated so badly at the time of his original incarceration. It feels like a very personal attack on this man.
It's perhaps more likely that he can no longer get a licence because of his criminal record... but has a firearm anyway.
A criminal record he should not have and does not deserve. It's probable that you are right, but this still feels vindictive.
Am I take it that Mr Brind will be joining the Labourites4Osborne movement?
I fear though that the Tories picking a leader who is statistically tied with Corbyn and who trailed Andy Burnham in "best PM" polls is surely too much to dream for.
I know you like to trot out the 'statistically tied' line a few times a day, but there is a difference. Osborne is Chancellor, and has been for 5 years. Corbo is a backbencher and out of his depth. If he succeeds Cameron he will be against either a backbench serial rebel who cannot command the support of his own MPs, or someone who, mostly likely, has never served in government.
With the correction of the long-biased boundary changes and no respite in Scotland on the horizon, the job for Labour is monumental.
It needs a fabulous character and a tremendous crisis, probably economic, for any Labour leader to have a chance with a 20% lead in personal opinion ratings, let alone a 'statistical tie'
Am I take it that Mr Brind will be joining the Labourites4Osborne movement?
I'll be voting for whoever is opposing Osborne. People just don't like him. Even Tories and right leaning types. People who "nothing" Dave and just find him bland but on the whole acceptable vehemently despise Osborne. Someone I know said it like this - "if something like a soul exists, it is very clear that Osborne doesn't have one". I think that's the problem. Something about him just feels off, you can't really tell what it is, but it's there. I know people who have met him and they all say he is a nice guy, nicer than Dave in real life, but I also know lots of people who said the same about Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, and look where they ended up.
Agreed. Cameron, despite us lefties' best efforts, never really aroused much visceral hostility; he does just come across as a pleasant enough guy on a personal level, whatever you think of his politics. Osborne does not.
Mr. Mortimer, by chance, the bit in Antigonus' biography I've reached draws a similar comparison between Antigonus (who had undoubted command of his army) and Eumenes (who had to negotiate, compromise and so forth).
Although Eumenes was very competent (arguably a genius up there with the first rank of generals), Antigonus was no fool, and in the end Antigonus won.
Mr. Mortimer, by chance, the bit in Antigonus' biography I've reached draws a similar comparison between Antigonus (who had undoubted command of his army) and Eumenes (who had to negotiate, compromise and so forth).
Although Eumenes was very competent (arguably a genius up there with the first rank of generals), Antigonus was no fool, and in the end Antigonus won.
Always excellent to have a classical justification for Tory victories! :-)
Am I take it that Mr Brind will be joining the Labourites4Osborne movement?
I fear though that the Tories picking a leader who is statistically tied with Corbyn and who trailed Andy Burnham in "best PM" polls is surely too much to dream for.
Only fair though, given the largesse from Labour to Tory re Corbyn.
The reshuffle might make him look temporarily look weaker, but I'm not sure he has another option - he looks weak already given just how divided the Shadow Cabinet is (different views and all that, but on some pretty major issues some have indicated they barely tolerate him), so even if it drowns out other stories, the benefits of a bit more front bench support, even if not taken to the extremes of culling all the unworthy, might be preferable to the status quo.
If Corbyn's New Shadow Cabinet have more members who agree with him, he'll make some really monumental blunders - as they will all agree with him..
So far his public awareness - public net Labour members- is about 5% .. which bodes ill for the future.
@NCPoliticsUK: First time since 1951 that the Tories have ended an election-winning year with a bigger lead than on polling day... https://t.co/6cdhE0sOEA
Mr. 565, suppose it's not Osborne. What does the new leader do with him?
Foreign or Home Secretary seem the most obvious answers.
Depends if Osborne wants to stay in politics if he misses the boat. A quick retirement and then lucrative positions in the City could beckon. If he does want to stay, then the easy option is to keep him in post. He might not be an asset to the Tories as leader but he is as Chancellor.
@NCPoliticsUK: First time since 1951 that the Tories have ended an election-winning year with a bigger lead than on polling day... https://t.co/6cdhE0sOEA
Happy New Year...
Clears throat....CCCCCCCorbynism sweeping the nation...
@NCPoliticsUK: First time since 1951 that the Tories have ended an election-winning year with a bigger lead than on polling day... https://t.co/6cdhE0sOEA
Happy New Year...
1987?
EDIT: I stand corrected -- average Tory lead in Dec 1987 was 11%, which is bigger than the Tory lead this month, but was indeed slightly smaller than the Tory lead at the 1987 election.
Labour are fortunate the Lib Dems didn't weather the storm better, UKIP failed (again), and the SNP stop at the border.
On the other hand, if Labour faced a more obvious threat to their status as second party perhaps they wouldn't've been so stupid to put Corbyn on the ballot...
Labour are fortunate the Lib Dems didn't weather the storm better, UKIP failed (again), and the SNP stop at the border.
On the other hand, if Labour faced a more obvious threat to their status as second party perhaps they wouldn't've been so stupid to put Corbyn on the ballot...
Bang on the money. And don't forget the Greens. The current vacuum in opposition gives Labour a false impression of its 'core vote' which Oldham re-enforced.
Mr. 565, suppose it's not Osborne. What does the new leader do with him?
Foreign or Home Secretary seem the most obvious answers.
Depends if Osborne wants to stay in politics if he misses the boat. A quick retirement and then lucrative positions in the City could beckon. If he does want to stay, then the easy option is to keep him in post. He might not be an asset to the Tories as leader but he is as Chancellor.
There are some, in fact quite a few, in industry and commerce who might already disagree with your last sentence. If, as I think likely, the business cycle turns down before 2020 many more will perhaps realise what a God awful chancellor Osborne has been. He may have done great things for the Conservative Party, but he has failed to make the necessary meaningful reforms of the tax system and UK economy to move us on from the debt fuelled, consumption-lead, wealth exporting mess Brown left us with.
And on that happy note I am off up the pub. We have an early meeting of the Hurstpierpoint and District Gentlemen's Temperance Society.
This year, the TV producers have somehow contrived to outdo themselves. Viewers tuning into STV, the Scottish version of ITV, will be treated to a Hogmanay special hosted by the talented (if politically misguided) actress Elaine C. Smith, who will present from a replica of her parents 1970s living room. This is not a wind-up; it is true. Smith is a raving Scottish Nationalist, but this does not make her unusual and political affiliations should be no bar to presenting couthy television shows. What is deeply weird though is the choice of guests on the show. The SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her mother and her sister are the main attraction. The other guest is a pro-SNP “comedian”.
Any SNP supporter who cannot see that this initiative is mildly disturbing, that it has an almost Peronist flavour, needs to consider how bizarre it would look if ITV in England put on an “at home with the Camerons” special on Christmas Day. It simply wouldn’t happen.
Of course he needs to do a reshuffle and get rid of the conspirators. The biggest problem for Labour, that can be treated, is the constant attacks and conspiracies by unnamed shadow cabinet members against their own party.
Any decent party leader would fire them and I expect Corbyn to do so, after all their position is appointed to them by Corbyn, so why would he keep people who constantly try to undermine the party instead of doing the job that they where appointed.
Perhaps I am just too much of a cynic, but this feels right out of the Francis Urquart playbook.
Take an existing weakness of an enemy, set him up and watch him fall.
You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment....
Lets not forget that UKIP guy (Bird?) who tripped up the same way.
All these anti-Corynism Labour "moderates" not doing themselves a lot of favours.
Afternoon all
Simon Danczuk was a marked man for his outspokenness against the Labour leadership and has helpfully provided them with the pretext for his suspension.
Must admit I’ve very little sympathy for him over such daft behaviour – however this does store up problems for Jeremy and accusations of cronyism when a loyalists MP actually does something illegal or far worse and is not treated equally or punished accordingly.
One might argue that they've already established that with Andrew Fisher's treatment. Sure, calling on people to vote for another party is on one level very different from alleged criminal activity. On another though, for membership of a political party, it should be a slam-dunk expulsion.
This year, the TV producers have somehow contrived to outdo themselves. Viewers tuning into STV, the Scottish version of ITV, will be treated to a Hogmanay special hosted by the talented (if politically misguided) actress Elaine C. Smith, who will present from a replica of her parents 1970s living room. This is not a wind-up; it is true. Smith is a raving Scottish Nationalist, but this does not make her unusual and political affiliations should be no bar to presenting couthy television shows. What is deeply weird though is the choice of guests on the show. The SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her mother and her sister are the main attraction. The other guest is a pro-SNP “comedian”.
Any SNP supporter who cannot see that this initiative is mildly disturbing, that it has an almost Peronist flavour, needs to consider how bizarre it would look if ITV in England put on an “at home with the Camerons” special on Christmas Day. It simply wouldn’t happen.
Mr. 565, suppose it's not Osborne. What does the new leader do with him?
Foreign or Home Secretary seem the most obvious answers.
Depends if Osborne wants to stay in politics if he misses the boat. A quick retirement and then lucrative positions in the City could beckon. If he does want to stay, then the easy option is to keep him in post. He might not be an asset to the Tories as leader but he is as Chancellor.
There are some, in fact quite a few, in industry and commerce who might already disagree with your last sentence. If, as I think likely, the business cycle turns down before 2020 many more will perhaps realise what a God awful chancellor Osborne has been. He may have done great things for the Conservative Party, but he has failed to make the necessary meaningful reforms of the tax system and UK economy to move us on from the debt fuelled, consumption-lead, wealth exporting mess Brown left us with.
And on that happy note I am off up the pub. We have an early meeting of the Hurstpierpoint and District Gentlemen's Temperance Society.
I do have a little sympathy with that, particularly with regard to tax reform, which is entirely within his province. I think you're being a bit harsh re the economy overall. There's only so much that any government can do, particularly one that inherits an enormous deficit and has to steer a path between on the one hand losing the confidence of the funding markets, and on the other, ensuring that the economy doesn't trip back into recession. That said, now that growth is re-established, he has more scope for tackling those problems and isn't really taking them on as much as I'd like.
If there is a by-election ( not a very high chance, I see Danczuk staying as an independent till 2020), Labour are quite safe as it has a more than 12000 majority, population more Asian than Oldham West, UKIP and the Tories a tad lower than in Oldham and a decent LD vote to squeeze. If there is a by-election in Rochdale the question will be if Labour can get more than 50% of the vote.
Of course he needs to do a reshuffle and get rid of the conspirators. The biggest problem for Labour, that can be treated, is the constant attacks and conspiracies by unnamed shadow cabinet members against their own party.
Any decent party leader would fire them and I expect Corbyn to do so, after all their position is appointed to them by Corbyn, so why would he keep people who constantly try to undermine the party instead of doing the job that they where appointed.
About 90% of the PLP did not want Corbyn and most of those are hostile to his views. Furthermore, the careerists have to make a call as to whether it's in their interests to climb the greasy pole of a ship that may be sinking.
Corbyn doesn't have many people to choose from to replace those he sacks and if he can find some, they may not stand up to the scrutiny the media will subject the front bench to.
But that doesn't affect the fundamental problem, which is that his control over the PLP is minimal. Sacking ministers (or shadow ministers) doesn't always look like a sign of strength.
This would be squeaky clean Ken Livingstone, with x kids by y different mothers, secret children, etc etc etc.
Bizarrely, he claims to find it odd that you would find someone aged 17 attractive. Well, bollocks to that, it's what we're genetically programmed to do, especially when she appears to be flirting with you by text. It seems odd that she kept this up for two months before apparently finding it distasteful. Maybe it's just that she realised she wouldn't get a job out of him.
First time since 1951 that the Tories have ended an election-winning year with a bigger lead than on polling day... @Britainelects December polling average Con 38.8%, Labour 31.2%, UKIP 13%, LD 6.8%, Green 4.2% https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK?lang=en-gb
Of course he needs to do a reshuffle and get rid of the conspirators. The biggest problem for Labour, that can be treated, is the constant attacks and conspiracies by unnamed shadow cabinet members against their own party.
Any decent party leader would fire them and I expect Corbyn to do so, after all their position is appointed to them by Corbyn, so why would he keep people who constantly try to undermine the party instead of doing the job that they where appointed.
Jeremy Corbyn struggled to find enough Labour MPs willing to join his shadow cabinet just 3 months ago, he can’t keep sacking MPs that fail to show unswerving loyalty or he’ll end up with just Abbott and Andy Burnham sitting on the front bench at PMQs.
I will say Happy New Year from the Philippines now before I slide under the table from too much Gammon and sparkling wine... May I wish you all a politically prosperous (and entertaining) new year!
I will say Happy New Year from the Philippines now before I slide under the table from too much Gammon and sparkling wine... May I wish you all a politically prosperous (and entertaining) new year!
First time since 1951 that the Tories have ended an election-winning year with a bigger lead than on polling day... @Britainelects December polling average Con 38.8%, Labour 31.2%, UKIP 13%, LD 6.8%, Green 4.2% https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK?lang=en-gb
First time since 1951 that the Tories have ended an election-winning year with a bigger lead than on polling day... @Britainelects December polling average Con 38.8%, Labour 31.2%, UKIP 13%, LD 6.8%, Green 4.2% https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK?lang=en-gb
Although Labour did it in 1997 and 2001, I think?
Yes but this is the first time the Tories have done it since 1951 and of course given the Tories won the 1955 election and Labour the 2001 and 2005 elections not greatly encouraging for Corbynistas
This year, the TV producers have somehow contrived to outdo themselves. Viewers tuning into STV, the Scottish version of ITV, will be treated to a Hogmanay special hosted by the talented (if politically misguided) actress Elaine C. Smith, who will present from a replica of her parents 1970s living room. This is not a wind-up; it is true. Smith is a raving Scottish Nationalist, but this does not make her unusual and political affiliations should be no bar to presenting couthy television shows. What is deeply weird though is the choice of guests on the show. The SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her mother and her sister are the main attraction. The other guest is a pro-SNP “comedian”.
Any SNP supporter who cannot see that this initiative is mildly disturbing, that it has an almost Peronist flavour, needs to consider how bizarre it would look if ITV in England put on an “at home with the Camerons” special on Christmas Day. It simply wouldn’t happen.
Times Archive Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
LOL. And a big improvement on the annoying unspecifity of the modern press who are content to refer to "a sex act" and often fail to say exactly what crime(s) someone is accused of.
Times Archive Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
LOL. And a big improvement on the annoying unspecifity of the modern press who are content to refer to "a sex act" and often fail to say exactly what crime(s) someone is accused of.
Times Archive Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
LOL. And a big improvement on the annoying unspecifity of the modern press who are content to refer to "a sex act" and often fail to say exactly what crime(s) someone is accused of.
Or even what they said that they are being condemned for, so how can I know how offended to be?
About 90% of the PLP did not want Corbyn and most of those are hostile to his views. Furthermore, the careerists have to make a call as to whether it's in their interests to climb the greasy pole of a ship that may be sinking.
Corbyn doesn't have many people to choose from to replace those he sacks and if he can find some, they may not stand up to the scrutiny the media will subject the front bench to.
But that doesn't affect the fundamental problem, which is that his control over the PLP is minimal. Sacking ministers (or shadow ministers) doesn't always look like a sign of strength.
Although I've been saying that Corbyn's own position is safe a cack-handed revenge reshuffle is one way he could come unstuck, I think.
Firstly, it could taint one positive in his personal brand which is that most people (not me!) think he's a good person that means well.
Secondly, as you say, he will lose people some of whom are at least adequate at their jobs and replace them with people who probably aren't (going by the fact that they are presumably worse than Richard Burgon or they'd already be in post).
Thirdly, it's really slamming the door on what he needs to do in the longer term which is build a bridge back to the refuseniks like Cooper and Hunt. His goal should be, eventually, to get them into the tent saying, "You know what. Jeremy's OK. We can work together against the Tories." A night of the long knives now makes that impossible and confirms him as the leader of a faction within his party, not the whole.
He could end up with a complete joke of a shadow cabinet (it's only a partial joke now) and no way back.
Times Archive Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
LOL. And a big improvement on the annoying unspecifity of the modern press who are content to refer to "a sex act" and often fail to say exactly what crime(s) someone is accused of.
Amen. We all sound ridiculous when striking a moralising tone but even more so when we don't know what we are moralising about.
About 90% of the PLP did not want Corbyn and most of those are hostile to his views. Furthermore, the careerists have to make a call as to whether it's in their interests to climb the greasy pole of a ship that may be sinking.
Corbyn doesn't have many people to choose from to replace those he sacks and if he can find some, they may not stand up to the scrutiny the media will subject the front bench to.
But that doesn't affect the fundamental problem, which is that his control over the PLP is minimal. Sacking ministers (or shadow ministers) doesn't always look like a sign of strength.
Although I've been saying that Corbyn's own position is safe a cack-handed revenge reshuffle is one way he could come unstuck, I think.
Firstly, it could taint one positive in his personal brand which is that most people (not me!) think he's a good person that means well.
Secondly, as you say, he will lose people some of whom are at least adequate at their jobs and replace them with people who probably aren't (going by the fact that they are presumably worse than Richard Burgon or they'd already be in post).
Thirdly, it's really slamming the door on what he needs to do in the longer term which is build a bridge back to the refuseniks like Cooper and Hunt. His goal should be, eventually, to get them into the tent saying, "You know what. Jeremy's OK. We can work together against the Tories." A night of the long knives now makes that impossible and confirms him as the leader of a faction within his party, not the whole.
He could end up with a complete joke of a shadow cabinet (it's only a partial joke now) and no way back.
Unless the PLP is prepared to rebel outright and operate as a party within a party, he's safe as long as the membership has his back. For 2016, as long as he can bring home some prize out of the election - London, probably - they'll stick behind him and the MPs will find it very difficult to force Corbyn out, even if he's not prepared to compromise (which he won't be).
Ultimately, it's a numbers game and the two key numbers are these: only about 20-25 MPs positively nominated Corbyn, and 60% of Labour's electoral college voted for him. Those two facts stand in contradiction to each other and until they come into alignment, Labour will continue to suffer massive internal tensions.
Times Archive Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
LOL. And a big improvement on the annoying unspecifity of the modern press who are content to refer to "a sex act" and often fail to say exactly what crime(s) someone is accused of.
Times Archive Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
LOL. And a big improvement on the annoying unspecifity of the modern press who are content to refer to "a sex act" and often fail to say exactly what crime(s) someone is accused of.
Or even what they said that they are being condemned for, so how can I know how offended to be?
And that. I tend to think they are afraid that if we are told what people said, we would think that it was OK, or at least a bit dodgy but we've all said something worse. I am still trying to work out what is so wrong about Oliver Letwin pointing out that in the past poor communities didn't riot, I mean the Great Depression was famous for inner-city riots all over the UK, and questioning what caused it at Broadwater Farm.
A new Year's Eve terror attack has been foiled by police in New York. According to officials 25-year-old Emanuel Lutchman, who has been charged with attempting to provide material support to the so-called Islamic State, was allegedly plotting a machete attack on diners at a Rochester restaurant in the name of ISIS.
About 90% of the PLP did not want Corbyn and most of those are hostile to his views. Furthermore, the careerists have to make a call as to whether it's in their interests to climb the greasy pole of a ship that may be sinking.
Corbyn doesn't have many people to choose from to replace those he sacks and if he can find some, they may not stand up to the scrutiny the media will subject the front bench to.
But that doesn't affect the fundamental problem, which is that his control over the PLP is minimal. Sacking ministers (or shadow ministers) doesn't always look like a sign of strength.
Although I've been saying that Corbyn's own position is safe a cack-handed revenge reshuffle is one way he could come unstuck, I think.
Firstly, it could taint one positive in his personal brand which is that most people (not me!) think he's a good person that means well.
Secondly, as you say, he will lose people some of whom are at least adequate at their jobs and replace them with people who probably aren't (going by the fact that they are presumably worse than Richard Burgon or they'd already be in post).
Thirdly, it's really slamming the door on what he needs to do in the longer term which is build a bridge back to the refuseniks like Cooper and Hunt. His goal should be, eventually, to get them into the tent saying, "You know what. Jeremy's OK. We can work together against the Tories." A night of the long knives now makes that impossible and confirms him as the leader of a faction within his party, not the whole.
He could end up with a complete joke of a shadow cabinet (it's only a partial joke now) and no way back.
Unless the PLP is prepared to rebel outright and operate as a party within a party, he's safe as long as the membership has his back. For 2016, as long as he can bring home some prize out of the election - London, probably - they'll stick behind him and the MPs will find it very difficult to force Corbyn out, even if he's not prepared to compromise (which he won't be).
Ultimately, it's a numbers game and the two key numbers are these: only about 20-25 MPs positively nominated Corbyn, and 60% of Labour's electoral college voted for him. Those two facts stand in contradiction to each other and until they come into alignment, Labour will continue to suffer massive internal tensions.
He's certainly fine for 2016. I'm thinking about him getting through to 2020. It's a long way off if he alienates too many of the non-Corbynistas who were initially prepared to work with him.
But sure, it's about numbers and he really isn't vulnerable. He could, however, remain in post while having an excruciating time of it.
"Osborne’s image as a Star Wars villain is well established on the Left"
Neatly encapsulating the problem the Lefty Left have and why they are going to lose badly next election and everyone after it until they fundamentally change their world view.
The sensible left wing posters on here don't see Osborne or practically any other mainstream politician as some sort of evil to be defeated both politically and morally. They see a man who has a somewhat different view of the best solutions for problems both sides recognise.
I forget who it was the other day (Kle4 or Surbiton) but that is exactly how they put the whole question of political differences. More importantly that is also how the vast majority of the public see both sets of party leaders as well.
The Tories won in May partly because they were able to portray Miliband as ineffectual and a figure of fun. Dangerous to people's futures not by design but by ineptitude. Invariably this is how one side beats the other. Major lost in 97 because of this, Brown in 2010 for the same reason. Not because they were viewed as inherently evil in some fantasy novel sense but because they were viewed as just not very good at what they did.
The Tories get this. That is why, in the end, they will continue to win elections and Labour - under its current direction of travel - will continue to lose them.
I can't get my head around that she is married to manager of those well known quiet sober early to bed types, AC/DC, Metallica, Red Hot Chilli Peppers. I some how doubt the above are following Louise advice in celebrating New Year.
Comments
I can see Jedi Corbyn being wiped out by Osborne's Stormtroopers in 2020.
Commander Sir Lynton execute order 66
I can't wait to see what Jezza does with his reshuffle. Diane as SFSec would be marvellous. But I'm expecting something outre and very amusing WTFery too.
If he had competent or inspiring people to bring through a re-shuffle could be a sign of strength but promoting say Abbott (if it is she) would just emphasise his weakness. Apparently Burgon was the pick of the new left intake (sniggers). After that he's left with Clive Lewis, Cat Smith and Kate Osamor.
If Osborne were Darth Vader, or Darth Maul, that wouldn't be a problem for him.
As for Corbyn being a Jedi, when faced with the Death Star, Luke blew the bloody thing up. He didn't try to negotiate with it.
We've already seen what the 'new politics' comprises. It's the same as the 'old politics', except it's wrapped up with a bow that the usual idiots will like.
Tony Martin's in the news again:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35206113
Early I know but I'm out this evening Manchester and the mobile networks get congested at that time.
http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/youre-far-more-likely-to-order-dessert-if-your-waiter-is-overweight--Wk4lK7Yjsg?utm_source=indy&utm_medium=top5&utm_campaign=i100
Wait a minute...
'The longer they stay in office, the more likely that is to happen'"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/barack-obama-world-leaders-jerry-seinfeld-comedians-in-cars-getting-coffee-a6791611.html#commentsDiv
Lets not forget that UKIP guy (Bird?) who tripped up the same way.
All these anti-Corynism Labour "moderates" not doing themselves a lot of favours.
I fear though that the Tories picking a leader who is statistically tied with Corbyn and who trailed Andy Burnham in "best PM" polls is surely too much to dream for.
Jeremy Corbyn's New Year Message Is Here
Simon Danczuk was a marked man for his outspokenness against the Labour leadership and has helpfully provided them with the pretext for his suspension.
Must admit I’ve very little sympathy for him over such daft behaviour – however this does store up problems for Jeremy and accusations of cronyism when a loyalists MP actually does something illegal or far worse and is not treated equally or punished accordingly.
With the correction of the long-biased boundary changes and no respite in Scotland on the horizon, the job for Labour is monumental.
It needs a fabulous character and a tremendous crisis, probably economic, for any Labour leader to have a chance with a 20% lead in personal opinion ratings, let alone a 'statistical tie'
http://www.circle-fashion.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/d/s/dsc_0105_5.jpg
Or this one
http://www.togged.com/images/products/xxlarge/12995994502882A.jpg
Or maybe this
http://edge.paulsmith.co.uk/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/p/n/pnpb-s315-423-45.jpg
Please note, if you suffer from epilepsy don't click any of the above links.
Although Eumenes was very competent (arguably a genius up there with the first rank of generals), Antigonus was no fool, and in the end Antigonus won.
Foreign or Home Secretary seem the most obvious answers.
Labour's Simon Danczuk suspended over 'inappropriate behaviour'
Good thing he didn't move over to UKIP. The MSM would have had field fortnight instead of just a field day for this labour MP.
"Where’s all the joy gone? Britain seems to be suffering from a dearth of lightheartedness"
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/wheres-all-the-joy-gone/
Send this man for re-education immediately. Such lack of faith is not to be tolerated.
https://t.co/bTwg91Dc0i https://t.co/YpwrWXqnl7
So far his public awareness - public net Labour members- is about 5% .. which bodes ill for the future.
G Osborne is of course better - on 7%,..:-)
Happy New Year...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/i-wont-be-jeremy-corbyns-man-in-london-says-sadiq-khan/
EDIT: I stand corrected -- average Tory lead in Dec 1987 was 11%, which is bigger than the Tory lead this month, but was indeed slightly smaller than the Tory lead at the 1987 election.
http://www.rochdaleonline.co.uk/news-features/2/news-headlines/100127/simon-danczuk-embroiled-in-sleaze
On the other hand, if Labour faced a more obvious threat to their status as second party perhaps they wouldn't've been so stupid to put Corbyn on the ballot...
And on that happy note I am off up the pub. We have an early meeting of the Hurstpierpoint and District Gentlemen's Temperance Society.
The biggest problem for Labour, that can be treated, is the constant attacks and conspiracies by unnamed shadow cabinet members against their own party.
Any decent party leader would fire them and I expect Corbyn to do so, after all their position is appointed to them by Corbyn, so why would he keep people who constantly try to undermine the party instead of doing the job that they where appointed.
They do a "at home with the Cameron's relatives" each year, its called the Queen's speech ;-)
That STV show sounds like a right riot, not...won't be tuning into that.
If there is a by-election ( not a very high chance, I see Danczuk staying as an independent till 2020), Labour are quite safe as it has a more than 12000 majority, population more Asian than Oldham West, UKIP and the Tories a tad lower than in Oldham and a decent LD vote to squeeze.
If there is a by-election in Rochdale the question will be if Labour can get more than 50% of the vote.
Corbyn doesn't have many people to choose from to replace those he sacks and if he can find some, they may not stand up to the scrutiny the media will subject the front bench to.
But that doesn't affect the fundamental problem, which is that his control over the PLP is minimal. Sacking ministers (or shadow ministers) doesn't always look like a sign of strength.
@Britainelects December polling average Con 38.8%, Labour 31.2%, UKIP 13%, LD 6.8%, Green 4.2%
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK?lang=en-gb
Don't abuse your liver overmuch.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/12/david-davis-is-conhome-readers-parliamentarian-of-the-year.html
Times Archive
Not a single gory detail spared in this 1859 news story https://t.co/1O2RbOvwlB
Ahem.
HNY to all PBers.
http://metro.co.uk/2015/12/31/shelter-inundated-with-requests-to-adopt-this-adorable-little-puppy-called-joker-5593048/
Who would be interested in the big baw faces that Tories or Labour could put up.
Guests need to have some talent.
Firstly, it could taint one positive in his personal brand which is that most people (not me!) think he's a good person that means well.
Secondly, as you say, he will lose people some of whom are at least adequate at their jobs and replace them with people who probably aren't (going by the fact that they are presumably worse than Richard Burgon or they'd already be in post).
Thirdly, it's really slamming the door on what he needs to do in the longer term which is build a bridge back to the refuseniks like Cooper and Hunt. His goal should be, eventually, to get them into the tent saying, "You know what. Jeremy's OK. We can work together against the Tories." A night of the long knives now makes that impossible and confirms him as the leader of a faction within his party, not the whole.
He could end up with a complete joke of a shadow cabinet (it's only a partial joke now) and no way back.
Ultimately, it's a numbers game and the two key numbers are these: only about 20-25 MPs positively nominated Corbyn, and 60% of Labour's electoral college voted for him. Those two facts stand in contradiction to each other and until they come into alignment, Labour will continue to suffer massive internal tensions.
But sure, it's about numbers and he really isn't vulnerable. He could, however, remain in post while having an excruciating time of it.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/31/jeremy-corbyn-labour-future-peter-mandelson
Tonight we're gonna party like it's #OnThisDay 1999! https://t.co/howSca1eOo
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/682528290939256835
Neatly encapsulating the problem the Lefty Left have and why they are going to lose badly next election and everyone after it until they fundamentally change their world view.
The sensible left wing posters on here don't see Osborne or practically any other mainstream politician as some sort of evil to be defeated both politically and morally. They see a man who has a somewhat different view of the best solutions for problems both sides recognise.
I forget who it was the other day (Kle4 or Surbiton) but that is exactly how they put the whole question of political differences. More importantly that is also how the vast majority of the public see both sets of party leaders as well.
The Tories won in May partly because they were able to portray Miliband as ineffectual and a figure of fun. Dangerous to people's futures not by design but by ineptitude. Invariably this is how one side beats the other. Major lost in 97 because of this, Brown in 2010 for the same reason. Not because they were viewed as inherently evil in some fantasy novel sense but because they were viewed as just not very good at what they did.
The Tories get this. That is why, in the end, they will continue to win elections and Labour - under its current direction of travel - will continue to lose them.
David Davis is a walking disaster area for the Conservatives. A small man who cannot put aside his own image and petty grievances.