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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New analysis finds current LAB voters reluctant to give Cor

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Skip Licker
    Clear a path to the front of tonight's London Fireworks, and get a great view by shouting 'Allah Ackbar! ' as each one explodes.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    murali_s said:

    As December comes to a close, it's worth reflecting how incredibly warm it's been this month - a truly astonishing month.

    The Central England Temperature for December 2015 is currently standing at 9.8C (81-10 average is 4.6C, previous high was 8.1C). To smash a record by that margin is truly astonishing.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    Will be interesting to see the various global temperature datasets for both December 2015 and 2015 but I'm fairly sure that the WMO will state that 2015 will be the warmest year on record. Any bets for 2016?

    Yeah, I bet 99% of people don't care.

    Have you ever lived in England? Because it's a national pastime here to complain about the weather. What I've mostly heard about this month is:

    * bad for gardeners (for some reason)
    * things are not being killed off as they should be
    * not Christmassy
    * just not right

    Which is fine, though I can't help thinking that if I were homeless I'd be damn relieved by the lack of snow and frost.
    Yes I've lived in England for 52 years and you're correct, the weather is a national obsession, but virtually nobody gives a toss about climate change. Of course some pretend to, in the same way some people pretend to be socialists.

    I'm not sure that's right. I think there are quite a lot of people who are spooked by what they see as abnormal (and to them annoying) weather. They don't necessarily talk about *climate* but the idea that "the weather is all wrong" is very widespread, I think.

    I don't think politicians can safely ignore that though what they should do is another matter.
    It depends how you define "care". Do you mean "care" in the way Polly Toynbee bleats about the poor from her Tuscan villa, or the way people turn on patio heaters and somehow connect that to floods?

    Just enjoy your life, nothing you can do will stop it raining.
    Well, climate has become politicised. If the weather deviates from classical expectations (gambolling lambs, strawberries and cream, mellow fruitfulness, snowmen) then it attracts comment in a way it didn't used to. I think that now has political consequences, like it or not.

    This is a separate issue from the actual science of climate change.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    So very true, especially re AGW

    Conflicts between being a good scientist and a good academic: https://t.co/ssJTeGWlhD https://t.co/KSjoPpFIzo
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Great comparison here from Paul Waugh

    Friend of @SimonDanczuk (no, it's not SD himself) tells me: Labour suspension a bit 'harsh'. https://t.co/SiPZv8Pabo https://t.co/qy25SLC1a3
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    If you missed this, I cried with laughter.
    It may be time to shut down the internet after Facebook users were tricked into sharing this photo of a ‘disfigured’ dog who was actually photographed with a slice of ham on its head
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/12076447/Why-Facebook-users-are-sharing-a-photo-of-a-dog-with-ham-on-its-face.html
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    Miss Plato, amazed the dog was still enough for the photo to be taken.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    If you missed this, I cried with laughter.

    It may be time to shut down the internet after Facebook users were tricked into sharing this photo of a ‘disfigured’ dog who was actually photographed with a slice of ham on its head
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/12076447/Why-Facebook-users-are-sharing-a-photo-of-a-dog-with-ham-on-its-face.html

    That is very funny.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    What has Danczuk done ?

    See the front pages of this morning's tabloids for what's alleged.
    It looks spectacularly messy:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12075637/MP-Simon-Danczuk-probed-by-police-after-sending-spanking-texts-to-teenager.html
    Are politicians mad ? Texting from his own phone ?
    If a 49 year old man is texting a teenager I'd suggest being mad is the least of his worries. The standard of people in public life is dreadful, like that other MP dancing in his y fronts on a dating site. Whatever happened to decency, dignity and self respect.

    None of us are paragons of virtue but if you run for senior public office you must set standards that others can't immediately berate or laugh at.

    I have no issue with holding MPs to a higher standard than other people to some degree - they are in positions of power over us, so being judged on stricter terms than most people seems entirely fair - but I go back and forth about how far to take it. Some proper scumbags or narcissistic weirdos or just plain fools may, in other respects, be very fine at all or parts of their jobs and if people don't mind those flaws enough to vote them out and they have not broken any laws, then that's their choice I suppose. Better if their personal issues are discreet so we don't have to think about it, but if it does come into the public eye then sure the public can take it into account more than they might for a normal person, but I'd think we can still forgive a lot of discretionary.
    Of course you're right, let him without sin and all that. But come on, within his constituency there'll be thousands of people with teenage daughters, nieces, sisters etc, the thought of a pudgy middle aged man texting her about spanking is nauseous.

    It's more than that, he built his entire political career accusing other middle and old age politicians of doing the sort of thing that he did.
    It's the hypocrisy that's the killer.
    Just like the hypocrisy of a serial rebel leading the party is the killer for Corbyn's chances of remaining leader for 5 years.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    She's 18 now.

    The Danczuk thing is almost too convenient.

    Who is "controlling" the 17 year old girl?

    Perhaps I am just too much of a cynic, but this feels right out of the Francis Urquart playbook.

    Take an existing weakness of an enemy, set him up and watch him fall.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    edited December 2015
    Danczuk clearly made a mistake but he did not do anything illegal, given the Labour Party clearly no longer want having suspended him from the party and his hostility to Corbyn there must be a strong possibility he will defect to UKIP
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    Watching Home Alone 2 and forgot Donald Trump made a cameo appearance
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    Miss Plato, amazed the dog was still enough for the photo to be taken.

    Too true. Any dog I've ever known would have wolfed the ham down in less than 2 seconds.
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    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    The Danczuk thing is almost too convenient.

    Who is "controlling" the 17 year old girl?

    Perhaps I am just too much of a cynic, but this feels right out of the Francis Urquart playbook.

    Take an existing weakness of an enemy, set him up and watch him fall.

    That's a first for PB, comparing Francis Urquart with Jeremy Corbyn.
    I guess there is a first time for everything.
    I made no reference to Corbyn.

    But it is telling that you did.
    I don't think it is very telling - a reference to someone controlling the girl leading to Danczuk's trouble suggests someone who wants to punish him for some reason. Corbyn - or someone sympathetic to him, would be the natural first thought in such a situation. Not naming him initially wouldn't change that.

    But I very much doubt such would be the case.
    One of the problem with Corbyn having recently been suspected of being about to engage in a revenge reshuffle against his critics and rebels is that any move against those people - whether justified or not - becomes viewed in that same light.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    There was a dogs with things on their head meme a few yrs ago - it may have come from that crop of great pix. Many were very funny.

    I regularly use one of dogs wearing tin foil hats to make a point on Twitter.

    Miss Plato, amazed the dog was still enough for the photo to be taken.

    Too true. Any dog I've ever known would have wolfed the ham down in less than 2 seconds.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,104
    Tony Martin's in the news again.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35206113
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061

    There was a dogs with things on their head meme a few yrs ago - it may have come from that crop of great pix. Many were very funny.

    I regularly use one of dogs wearing tin foil hats to make a point on Twitter.

    Miss Plato, amazed the dog was still enough for the photo to be taken.

    Too true. Any dog I've ever known would have wolfed the ham down in less than 2 seconds.
    I take it there are many points for which that image works well?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    HYUFD said:

    Danczuk clearly made a mistake but he did not do anything illegal, given the Labour Party clearly no longer want having suspended him from the party and his hostility to Corbyn there must be a strong possibility he will defect to UKIP

    Nah - unlikely, I think. Couldn't see him on the same ticket as Carswell and Farage...
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've a library of about 50 various ones [mainly cats] that say more than 140 characters ever could :wink:
    kle4 said:

    There was a dogs with things on their head meme a few yrs ago - it may have come from that crop of great pix. Many were very funny.

    I regularly use one of dogs wearing tin foil hats to make a point on Twitter.

    Miss Plato, amazed the dog was still enough for the photo to be taken.

    Too true. Any dog I've ever known would have wolfed the ham down in less than 2 seconds.
    I take it there are many points for which that image works well?
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    New Thread New Thread

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    edited December 2015
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danczuk clearly made a mistake but he did not do anything illegal, given the Labour Party clearly no longer want having suspended him from the party and his hostility to Corbyn there must be a strong possibility he will defect to UKIP

    Nah - unlikely, I think. Couldn't see him on the same ticket as Carswell and Farage...
    It is difficult to see Carswell and Farage on the same ticket at the moment and UKIP got 18% at the general election in Rochdale and came second with Labour on 46%
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,780

    It would make for a fascinating by-election. Both the Lib Dems and UKIP would be going for this seat hell for leather.

    He is a backbench MP, one who really has no time for the leadership. Why should he resign?
    Because it might make for a fascinating by-election? As you say, he really has no time for the leadership. A by-election in Rochdale would be rather awkward for Jeremy Corbyn. Simon Danczuk might see it as a parting present.
    When at university I helped organise cheese-and-wine (yes, really pissups) in the Victoria Room at the House of Commons. The format was simple - a bunch of students got to meet a bunch of MPs. The moment the word was out in the corridors of parliament that free booze was on offer - well, you got alot of MPs.

    Watching the interactions was fascinating. There does seem to be a type of young lady who chases after fat, old, ugly politicians. As one foat, old, ugly MP remarked to me - "Moths to a flame. But who is the moth?"
    Money. Power. Sex.

    That is all.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,128

    Mr. Divvie, worth also noting that not all Conservatives are predisposed towards Cameron.

    Mr. Quidder, for the SNP and Conservatives, a crushing defeat for Labour/Miliband was ideal.

    The SNP are trying to turn politics in Scotland into permanent identity politics after the fashion of Northern Ireland or Malaysia. I suppose that's all they have left after decisive defeat in the referendum and without the power to call another one.
    Cuckoo
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