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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what

SystemSystem Posts: 12,293
edited 2015 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

Every year I sit down at Christmas and try to work out what will happen in the following twelve months.  I do this not because I have any great confidence in my predictive power – as you’re about to see, that would be an illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect – but because it is useful to have a record of what I thought might be going to happen and to see where I have gone wrong in th…

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Comments

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    First.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 30
    Can't sleep....so FIRSSTTTTTTTTTTTTT

    Edit:- Damn somebody beat me to it.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    An enjoyable and thoughtful read. Thank you.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    An interesting thread Mr Meeks, thank you. ‘making predictions is chastening’ it certainly can be, but also very brave Gunga Din.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    FPT:
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Late to the party with @Dair saying England didn't exist until 1999, and only after that in some NHS bodies. Aren't we forgetting the Church of England?

    The Established church in England and Wales? It is not an English institution hence the last Anti-Pope of the CoE was Welsh.
    ER..... Neither the Province of York nor Canterbury covers Wales!

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dioceses_of_Church_of_England.svg
    Thanks Sunil. Also, Wales no longer has an established church.

    Other places England existed before 1999: In places, the 1972 Local Government Act quite clearly refers to 'England' only, without also referring to Wales at the same time.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Good piece, Mr Meeks. Re your last point on alternative interpretations, indeed. For any given set of 'facts', there are whole families of alternative explanations which fit those facts.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    My prediction for 2016: Oliver Letwin will be knighted and the Crosby knighthood "news" was planted to distract us.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Predictions can be wrong but surely of greatest importance is to adjust them in light of new information. My perhaps faulty recollection of election night on pb is that a number of us did manage to turn our fortunes round as Betfair was very slow to react to the exit polls.

    The book Superforecasters reports that in experiments with large panels making geopolitical predictions, the best performers frequently revise their forecasts. (Contrarily, the best-known and best paid pundits did not, as punditry requires the illusion of certainty.)
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    A very good piece, in your defence at the time you made your predictions nobody could foresee the impact SNP were going to have on UK politics, they were the single biggest factor in the Conservative majority. Crosby picked up on that before anybody else and his campaign was centred around it.

    Like plenty of others you don't like Farage but it's a tough one for me, by his own admission he's like marmite but it remains to be seen what happens when he steps down, whenever that may be. He almost singlehandedly dragged UKIP to where it is, filling his boots will be a tough call.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited 2015 30
    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,346
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Predictions can be wrong but surely of greatest importance is to adjust them in light of new information. My perhaps faulty recollection of election night on pb is that a number of us did manage to turn our fortunes round as Betfair was very slow to react to the exit polls.

    The book Superforecasters reports that in experiments with large panels making geopolitical predictions, the best performers frequently revise their forecasts. (Contrarily, the best-known and best paid pundits did not, as punditry requires the illusion of certainty.)

    That's very true. I remember laughing when I first saw Jack's prediction back in 2012-13. But come this time last year I started to think he was right - though it was hard to accept as I was sure Labour would win back in 2013.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    My prediction for 2016: Oliver Letwin will be knighted and the Crosby knighthood "news" was planted to distract us.

    Letwin could be knighted for his services to racism looking at today's papers.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited 2015 30
    blackburn63 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    My prediction for 2016: Oliver Letwin will be knighted and the Crosby knighthood "news" was planted to distract us.

    Letwin could be knighted for his services to racism looking at today's papers.

    It was reading the analysis by the pb night shift that led inexorably to my forecast: arise, Sir Oliver.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OP's predictions (1) and (2) are really the same prediction, or one is a corollary of the other. If the SNP did well and the LibDems \likewise, there would have been a hung parliament. For betting purposes, the value was probably in the Scottish constituencies, where Antifrank had been tipping for some considerable time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited 2015 30
    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited 2015 30
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Predictions can be wrong but surely of greatest importance is to adjust them in light of new information. My perhaps faulty recollection of election night on pb is that a number of us did manage to turn our fortunes round as Betfair was very slow to react to the exit polls.

    The book Superforecasters reports that in experiments with large panels making geopolitical predictions, the best performers frequently revise their forecasts. (Contrarily, the best-known and best paid pundits did not, as punditry requires the illusion of certainty.)

    Yes, like others I came out ahead on election night by turning round my position on a hung Parliament. Even after Swindon North and Nuneaton you could do so. I was very late to abandon my idée fixe but fortunately others were even slower.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Re Letwin, I was working in London in the mid 80s, his views at the time were pretty widely held, right or wrong. I know nothing of Letwin but I do enjoy a fuss like this, if only because it stops the pb Tories chucking the race card around for a day or two.

    You know who you are, let's see you start a campaign to have Letwin removed, if a kipper had aired these views you'd be foaming at the mouth.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Predictions can be wrong but surely of greatest importance is to adjust them in light of new information. My perhaps faulty recollection of election night on pb is that a number of us did manage to turn our fortunes round as Betfair was very slow to react to the exit polls.

    The book Superforecasters reports that in experiments with large panels making geopolitical predictions, the best performers frequently revise their forecasts. (Contrarily, the best-known and best paid pundits did not, as punditry requires the illusion of certainty.)

    Yes, like others I came out ahead on election night by turning round my position on a hung Parliament. Even after Swindon North and Nuneaton you could do so. I was very late to abandon my idée fixe but fortunately others were even slower.
    I had only a few quid on a Con majority, but did very well on individual constituencies that comprised that majority (such as Broxtowe - sorry Nick!). I also did well backing Jacks ARSE on number of Labour seats. It was a good night for me, if not my party.

    What Antifrank shows though is how far conventional wisdom can be from the truth. None of his predictions were outlandish.

    We should not write off either Mr Corbyn or the Republicans just yet. Or Leicester City for that matter!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    If you can accurately predict the future, then you are not looking far enough ahead.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We should have use Saints days to name them. I think the current names are quite bland and dull.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    I fail to see why the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster should be pilloried for calling a spade a spade (in both its original and non-PC meanings) - he has in any case now apologised for any offence caused by tactless phraseology. He himself is not British and comes from an ethnic minority community which was not prone to rioting, despite living in impoverishment in the early years of its settlement in the UK in deprived areas like Chapeltown (Leeds) and Cheetham Hill (Manchester), whose ethnic composition is now somewhat different. It was quipped in the 1980s that the cabinet was more old Estonian (actually Lithuanian) than old Etonian - interestingly, OL ticks both boxes (his antecedents came from Kyiv, which was historically part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    blackburn63 said:

    Re Letwin, I was working in London in the mid 80s, his views at the time were pretty widely held, right or wrong. I know nothing of Letwin but I do enjoy a fuss like this, if only because it stops the pb Tories chucking the race card around for a day or two.

    You know who you are, let's see you start a campaign to have Letwin removed, if a kipper had aired these views you'd be foaming at the mouth.

    I think you'll find most if not all PB Tories have a notion of judging comments and actions in context, for example the era it was done in. See the discussion regarding Rhodes lately.

    In which case please name a single example of where Tories have "foamed at the mouth" about comments made 30 years earlier by a Kipper which have subsequently been apologised for. Comments made yesterday which haven't been apologised for are not comparable.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It struck me as an attempt to sex up common or garden storms and gales as if they're hurricanes and typhoons. I think it's a crap PR idea. They happen far too often - it's like naming very sunny days.
    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Plato_Says said:

    It struck me as an attempt to sex up common or garden storms and gales as if they're hurricanes and typhoons. I think it's a crap PR idea. They happen far too often - it's like naming very sunny days.

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    Why not name very sunny days? After ancient philosophers, of course :)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Good morning, everyone.

    Can't remember what I guessed would happen, but my instinct would be that we'd end up with a hung Parliament. Many thought that.

    Many underestimated the crapness of Ed Miliband.

    Miss Plato, I agree. It's ridiculous self-involved claptrap from the media/weather folk. They aren't bloody hurricanes.

    Brilliantly, the storm names are based on wind speed. So, high rainfall but relatively low wind speeds don't get a name. But flooding's a bigger problem in the UK (as has been noticed...) than high wind speeds.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season
    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    A St Patrick storm on St Andrew's Day might get a trifle confusing. :wink:
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We should have use Saints days to name them. I think the current names are quite bland and dull.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    F1: world's whiniest man whines:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35195256

    Horner does actually have a point. But it's a point soaked in hypocrisy. Bleating for rule changes wasn't something he did when Red Bull and Vettel got 8 titles in 4 years, as well as racking up a ridiculous joint-record of on-the-bounce wins (about 11, I think).

    It'll also be interesting to see how well Ferrari does next year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    I almost correctly forecast the LibDem wipeout, expecting them to get 14 seats... But even I over-estimated their seat numbers by 80%!

    Here are my political, geopolitical and economic forecasts for 2016:

    1. Commodity prices will stay in the toilet. Yes, I know this isn't exactly an outrageous claim, but most of the forward curves expect a rapid bounce back, particularly for the oil price.

    2. Which will lead to severe problems in some commodity exporters. Putin to fall in 2016? It seems almost inconceivable given his 80%+ approval ratings. But 80% of Russian exports are of raw materials, and the Russian economy has shrunk something like 40% in US dollar terms. If unemployment continues to rise, then that popularity may not last long.

    3. The Chinese economy will hit several road bumps in 2016 as it transitions to being more consumer led. China at the beginning of a historic re-balancing process, and "consumer spending" needs to increase dramatically as a percentage of GDP, while Fixed Capital Formation needs to come down. This is going to be a difficult transition, although I'm sure they'll make successfully it in the end.

    4. I genuinely have no idea who the Republican nominee will be. With that said, I think Rubio would hammer Hillary; Cruz would be hammered by Hillary; and Trump... I think it would be extremely close. (Betting strategy: Buy Cruz for nominee, Sell for President; and the reverse for Rubio.

    5. I have no idea who will win the London mayoral race. I'd make Khan the narrow favourite (IP 55-60%), but have no great desire to waste my money right now.

    6. Immigration to the UK from the EU will slow markedly in 2016. Why? Because the gap between GDP growth in the UK and the Eurozone has already narrowed markedly. Economic migrants are economically rational: if the relative job prospects gap has narrowed, and the cost of living in the UK has increased markedly (both are clearly true) then the incentive to come here will be lower. It's notable that the migration flows from Spain and Ireland to the UK have now gone into reverse and more people are going to those countries, than the other way.

    7. The LibDems will win a by-election. Admittedly, it will only be a parish council one, but hey, you've got to start somewhere.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Plato, better to name them after Roman emperors.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Plato_Says said:

    A St Patrick storm on St Andrew's Day might get a trifle confusing. :wink:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We should have use Saints days to name them. I think the current names are quite bland and dull.
    Well you name the storm after the day on which it falls. Sorry, thought that was clear!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Not sure of the exact date but after Salmond had boasted about writing the Labour budget I knew the polls had to be wrong, I overheard two women in my town centre who were unlikely Tories but who had both voted Tory because of the THREAT from the SNP. For me that was the turning point. I had felt the polls couldn't all be showing the same thing and was very suspicious of them. I certainly didn't know 12 months previously and would have been even more wrong than Antifrank.. predictionwise
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I couldn't give a toss what Letwin said in a memo in 1980 something. He's a backroomer. And it sounds very familiar to what I read at the time.

    If he was pitching to be leader of the Tory Party...but there's no chance of that :sunglasses:
    daodao said:

    I fail to see why the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster should be pilloried for calling a spade a spade (in both its original and non-PC meanings) - he has in any case now apologised for any offence caused by tactless phraseology. He himself is not British and comes from an ethnic minority community which was not prone to rioting, despite living in impoverishment in the early years of its settlement in the UK in deprived areas like Chapeltown (Leeds) and Cheetham Hill (Manchester), whose ethnic composition is now somewhat different. It was quipped in the 1980s that the cabinet was more old Estonian (actually Lithuanian) than old Etonian - interestingly, OL ticks both boxes (his antecedents came from Kyiv, which was historically part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania).

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited 2015 30
    Safffers lose two wickets early. De Villiers LBW the other a stumping
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited 2015 30
    Heheh... Letwin wasn't too far wrong... certainly in 1985... 30 years ago..drugs and discos is where a lot of the dosh went
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @StigAbell: In fairness to Letwin, "disco" has always been an especially pernicious trade, and a gateway to harder stuff like "funk" and "house".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,882
    Plato_Says said:

    I couldn't give a toss what Letwin said in a memo in 1980 something. He's a backroomer. And it sounds very familiar to what I read at the time.

    If he was pitching to be leader of the Tory Party...but there's no chance of that :sunglasses:

    daodao said:

    I fail to see why the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster should be pilloried for calling a spade a spade (in both its original and non-PC meanings) - he has in any case now apologised for any offence caused by tactless phraseology. He himself is not British and comes from an ethnic minority community which was not prone to rioting, despite living in impoverishment in the early years of its settlement in the UK in deprived areas like Chapeltown (Leeds) and Cheetham Hill (Manchester), whose ethnic composition is now somewhat different. It was quipped in the 1980s that the cabinet was more old Estonian (actually Lithuanian) than old Etonian - interestingly, OL ticks both boxes (his antecedents came from Kyiv, which was historically part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania).

    The reference to "drugs and discoes" is a bit unfortunate, but the rest of Letwin's comments seem spot on. I think most of us here said similar things about the 2011 riots.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
    Let's hope for a bit of quieter weather so it will fall on a certain day in May ;)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Steyn out bowled
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Taking @Charles' WP article into account - what would people do if we named severe weather after politicians? :wink:

    Would Scots take more or less action in the face of Storm Maggie? Would Tory voters evacuate faster at the prospect of Storm Corbyn?
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
    Let's hope for a bit of quieter weather so it will fall on a certain day in May ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited 2015 30
    I can't understand why Letwin is being pilloried for stating the facts. It's true that poor white people lived in bad housing for decades without rioting. ("Maybe they should have" I can almost hear Corbynistas replying.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Plato, I think Storm Miliband would probably end up being a disappointing breeze with a hint of drizzle :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Plato_Says said:

    Taking @Charles' WP article into account - what would people do if we named severe weather after politicians? :wink:

    Would Scots take more or less action in the face of Storm Maggie? Would Tory voters evacuate faster at the prospect of Storm Corbyn?

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
    Let's hope for a bit of quieter weather so it will fall on a certain day in May ;)
    Storm Maggie would bring death and destruction to the North and Scotland, while at the same time sucking up warm air from Africa etc for a pleasant afternoon in the South to enjoy one's glass of Pimms. ;)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,960
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
    It'll be OK, lots of wind but no effect.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    logical_song said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
    It'll be OK, lots of wind but no effect.
    Oh, if only we had the like button back ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    edited 2015 30
    Well done Alistair about being so frank about your hits and misses!

    On Letwin, in response to EPG's classically tendentious question on the previous thread, my answer is this: few people intend to bring up their children to be criminals. But too many fail to bring up their children in a way which reduces the chances of them becoming criminals. We do them and the children no favours by not pointing this out.

    Two points: (a) if you want your children to know the difference between right and wrong and to try and choose right over wrong, if you want them to take responsibility for their own actions not blame others for what they do, you have to teach them that and show them that, day in, day out for 20 years and even then it's bloody hard. If you don't even bloody try then it's near impossible; and (2) it is very difficult - not impossible but harder than it might be, especially when you get to the teenage years - to bring up boys well without a father being present.

    Create or turn a blind eye or be indifferent to the growth of fatherless communities and don't be surprised if the consequences are borne by the children and if those children grow up to be adults who make less than ideal moral choices.

    And in the Broadwater Farm riots a number of individuals did make very bad moral choices indeed, including the brutal murder of a policeman, a husband and a father, and no-one has yet been convicted for his murder nor have any of those who might have helped by coming forward with evidence to help convict his murder done so. The murderer or murderers and those who have turned a blind eye or helped the murderers are not just victims, if they are victims. They are moral actors and they have made - in their actions and non-actions - the wrong moral choices. Apparently, we can't say such things in public life or we get idiots like Umunna criticising us - but public life is the poorer for this.

    Oh - and for EPG's benefit, I don't think people bring up their children to be "leeches on PB's taxes" (as you put it). I was volunteering to help the youngsters in North Ken in the 1980's. What were you doing?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This obit observation about Lemmy did make me LOL http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/music/rockandpopmusic/12072959/RIP-Lemmy-the-man-who-made-heavy-metal-cool-almost.html
    By another whim of fate, though, he also passed away on what is traditionally one of the quietest news days of the year, allowing even the normally staid Today programme on BBC Radio Four to give him a proper send-off today.

    • Why Motorhead's Lemmy became a British institution

    Under the guest-editorship of the cyclist Bradley Wiggins, the humble bass-player from Stoke-on-Trent got an obituary worthy of a modem day Vivaldi, complete with pundits discussing the mutton-chopped one's musical legacy and cultural influence.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Cyclefree, surely you didn't expect him to be anti-frank?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Predictions can be wrong but surely of greatest importance is to adjust them in light of new information. My perhaps faulty recollection of election night on pb is that a number of us did manage to turn our fortunes round as Betfair was very slow to react to the exit polls.

    The book Superforecasters reports that in experiments with large panels making geopolitical predictions, the best performers frequently revise their forecasts. (Contrarily, the best-known and best paid pundits did not, as punditry requires the illusion of certainty.)

    Yes, like others I came out ahead on election night by turning round my position on a hung Parliament. Even after Swindon North and Nuneaton you could do so. I was very late to abandon my idée fixe but fortunately others were even slower.
    I was following (lurkingly) this forum on election night and my memory is that you were one of the first people to see that a majority was coming. Maybe I misremember but it's one of my memories of that night that you saw what was happening very fast and reacted to it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    blimey 4th one down Abbott LBW two to get. for a crushing defeat
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol::lol::lol:
    RobD said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Taking @Charles' WP article into account - what would people do if we named severe weather after politicians? :wink:

    Would Scots take more or less action in the face of Storm Maggie? Would Tory voters evacuate faster at the prospect of Storm Corbyn?

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Fantastic! My favourite bit of unintended consequences of the festive season

    Charles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    There's actually a problem with naming storms (at least hurricanes) - in an effort to be gender neutral they alternate between male and female names.

    Female hurricanes cause approximately 3 times as many fatalities as male hurricanes.

    Weather folks looked at every factor they could possibly think of, controlling for everything and couldn't understand why.

    So they asked a behavioural scientist. Apparently it's very simple: men don't feel the need to seek shelter from female hurricanes (they don't think that Hurricane Doris is a threat, but Hurricane Butch sounds dangerous) - and hence there are significantly higher casualties.

    Humans, eh!

    “[Our] model suggests that changing a severe hurricane’s name from Charley … to Eloise … could nearly triple its death toll,” the study says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds/
    We've got Storm Nigel to look forward to in March or April.
    Let's hope for a bit of quieter weather so it will fall on a certain day in May ;)
    Storm Maggie would bring death and destruction to the North and Scotland, while at the same time sucking up warm air from Africa etc for a pleasant afternoon in the South to enjoy one's glass of Pimms. ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, surely you didn't expect him to be anti-frank?

    :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    edited 2015 30
    Mr. Wanderer, worth noting that the last two General Election exit polls have been highly accurate, and highly disbelieved initially, due to being out of whack with pre-vote polling.

    Edited extra bit: apparently 4-5" of rain expected for Cumbria.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, surely you didn't expect him to be anti-frank?

    I've just been handed a coat, but I'm pretty sure it is yours.... :p
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    How can you apologise today for remarks made thirty years earlier when no one was particularly bothered and were routine for the time? This is getting silly. Should we go through sixties TV and ask nearly everyone to apologise for nearly everything to whosoever wishes to feel a victim?

    I have some Irish ancestry ... should I ask myself to apologise to me for the Famine?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    "Last year I made a giant mistake (which in truth I had been pursuing as an idée fixe almost since the 2010 election). I guess if I have a single lesson that I have drawn so far, it is not to get too attached to a single interpretation. An idea can be good, well-reasoned, have backing evidence and still be wrong."

    I wonder if the next idée fixe we will be transfixed by is the idea that a Corbyn-led Labour Party cannot win a majority............

    Gulp!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    The fact that 30 years ago a politician of any kind felt that black people generally would prioritise drugs and discos with any aid they were given is exactly the kind of institutional racism that black people complained about. It turns out they were totally correct.

    Letwin probably was reflecting a wider feeling that was held at the time. I genuinely don't think that it exists anymore and I think he is genuinely mortified that he held such views. He has rightly apologised unreservedly and that is that. We have moved on.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Just for the memories :smiley:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/
    Wanderer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Predictions can be wrong but surely of greatest importance is to adjust them in light of new information. My perhaps faulty recollection of election night on pb is that a number of us did manage to turn our fortunes round as Betfair was very slow to react to the exit polls.

    The book Superforecasters reports that in experiments with large panels making geopolitical predictions, the best performers frequently revise their forecasts. (Contrarily, the best-known and best paid pundits did not, as punditry requires the illusion of certainty.)

    Yes, like others I came out ahead on election night by turning round my position on a hung Parliament. Even after Swindon North and Nuneaton you could do so. I was very late to abandon my idée fixe but fortunately others were even slower.
    I was following (lurkingly) this forum on election night and my memory is that you were one of the first people to see that a majority was coming. Maybe I misremember but it's one of my memories of that night that you saw what was happening very fast and reacted to it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    AndyJS said:

    I can't understand why Letwin is being pilloried for stating the facts. It's true that poor white people lived in bad housing for decades without rioting. ("Maybe they should have" I can almost hear Corbynistas replying.)

    In the 70s and 80s a lot of poor white people tended to riot on regular occasions at football matches. They were violent times. Much more so than today.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    CD13 said:

    How can you apologise today for remarks made thirty years earlier when no one was particularly bothered and were routine for the time? This is getting silly. Should we go through sixties TV and ask nearly everyone to apologise for nearly everything to whosoever wishes to feel a victim?

    I have some Irish ancestry ... should I ask myself to apologise to me for the Famine?

    It's not just that they were old and routine for the time. It's the fact that there was an element of truth in them. People don't like someone pointing out something which may be or is partly true, particularly if it does not absolve the person about whom it is being said of all responsibility, which seems to the most important thing anyone ever seems to want. ("I am important enough to be apologised to but not important or adult enough to take responsibility for anything I do."(

    There is an element going on here of Caliban raging at himself in the mirror.......

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Wanderer, worth noting that the last two General Election exit polls have been highly accurate, and highly disbelieved initially, due to being out of whack with pre-vote polling.

    Yes. Another memory I have is of rolling my eyes at the TV when Ashdown et al tried to rubbish it and talk about margin of error. I muttered something like "Yes, but not necessarily in your favour".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    Cyclefree said:

    "Last year I made a giant mistake (which in truth I had been pursuing as an idée fixe almost since the 2010 election). I guess if I have a single lesson that I have drawn so far, it is not to get too attached to a single interpretation. An idea can be good, well-reasoned, have backing evidence and still be wrong."

    I wonder if the next idée fixe we will be transfixed by is the idea that a Corbyn-led Labour Party cannot win a majority............

    Gulp!

    Perish the thought. It's that kind of the thinking that stops me writing him off, but it couldn't happen. Could it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,365
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, better to name them after Roman emperors.

    Storm Nero for any that start a fire, storm Diocletian for any that cause particular damage to churches. Storm Trajan for death and destruction on a grand scale!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,882
    Cyclefree said:

    CD13 said:

    How can you apologise today for remarks made thirty years earlier when no one was particularly bothered and were routine for the time? This is getting silly. Should we go through sixties TV and ask nearly everyone to apologise for nearly everything to whosoever wishes to feel a victim?

    I have some Irish ancestry ... should I ask myself to apologise to me for the Famine?

    It's not just that they were old and routine for the time. It's the fact that there was an element of truth in them. People don't like someone pointing out something which may be or is partly true, particularly if it does not absolve the person about whom it is being said of all responsibility, which seems to the most important thing anyone ever seems to want. ("I am important enough to be apologised to but not important or adult enough to take responsibility for anything I do."(

    There is an element going on here of Caliban raging at himself in the mirror.......

    It's no more than a truism to blame rioters for "bad moral attitudes" whether those riots took place in 1985 or 2011. Tottenham remains an unpleasant place precisely because some of the locals foul their own nests.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited 2015 30
    CD13 said:

    How can you apologise today for remarks made thirty years earlier when no one was particularly bothered and were routine for the time? This is getting silly. Should we go through sixties TV and ask nearly everyone to apologise for nearly everything to whosoever wishes to feel a victim?

    I have some Irish ancestry ... should I ask myself to apologise to me for the Famine?

    Oh dear CD13:

    These comments were made public after being protected for thirty-years. Letwin was overall correct in his assessment; his delivery is what he has apologised for....

    :more-beer:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,776
    edited 2015 30
    SimonStClare said:

    BBC - Storm Frank hits UK.

    When did we start naming the UK weather? At this rate we’ll be through the alphabet by Feb.

    Presumably storm Jeremy will blow itself out due to internal turbulence without reaching the coast ?

    Resolution for 2016: be less flippant.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    SouthamObserver said:

    AndyJS said:

    I can't understand why Letwin is being pilloried for stating the facts. It's true that poor white people lived in bad housing for decades without rioting. ("Maybe they should have" I can almost hear Corbynistas replying.)

    In the 70s and 80s a lot of poor white people tended to riot on regular occasions at football matches. They were violent times. Much more so than today.

    Indeed. Football violence is something we have (perhaps wilfully) forgotten.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,365
    Thanks Alistair for an interesting review of your predictions. If it's any consolation I would have agreed with all of them. It has been a weird year politically, and with Labour imploding faster than a submarine at twice crush depth and Clinton squaring up to Donald Duck Trump, next year looks set to be even weirder!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    SouthamObserver said:

    The fact that 30 years ago a politician of any kind felt that black people generally would prioritise drugs and discos with any aid they were given is exactly the kind of institutional racism that black people complained about. It turns out they were totally correct.

    Letwin probably was reflecting a wider feeling that was held at the time. I genuinely don't think that it exists anymore and I think he is genuinely mortified that he held such views. He has rightly apologised unreservedly and that is that. We have moved on.

    SO: it is wrong to assume that all black people will use money for drugs. Of course it is. But there was a significant drugs problem in Brixton, where I lived in the mid-1980's, and in Notting Hill, where I worked in the early 1980's and some in the black community were involved. Many of those who took drugs were white of course. It took a lot of effort to deal with it and the police did not behave well - as the Scarman report pointed out. But to pretend that there was no drugs issue is a fairy story. Just as it would be a fairy story to pretend now that there is not an issue with black-on-black knife violence - and for a time it was ignored because the police either preferred not to deal with it or through a sort of racism of indifference (no less damaging in its effects) thought it did not matter because it only affected blacks.

    Very few of us will not have changed our views on some things over 30 years - unless we're Corbyn of course. It's the mark of an adult.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Thanks for your frank article, Alastair. I might write up some predictions for 2016 and post them on here. Given my track record, people might be better off betting the other way. ;)

    On Letwin: I know David Lammy has a poor reputation on here, but he has a good handle on the the problems facing inner-city black kids. his book "Out of the Ashes" is a bit of a mess, but he defines the problems well, even if I don't agree with all of his proposed solutions.

    In fact, some of Lammy's comments are not a million miles away from Letwin's, even if they were made over twenty years later.
    On 11 August 2011, in an address to Parliament, Lammy attributed part of the cause for England's riots of a few days earlier to three destructive 'culture's that had emerged under the prevailing policies: "A Grand Theft Auto culture that glamorises violence. A consumer culture fixated on the brands we wear, not who we are and what we achieve. A gang culture with warped notions of loyalty, respect and honour."
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited 2015 30
    SO Letwin was right... in the 80s anyone with a need for drugs in Leeds just had to visit the seedier pubs and clubs in Chapeltown and get recharged..Chapeltown was a renowned no go area at that time for the police..and the population was mainly West Indian
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    CD13 said:

    How can you apologise today for remarks made thirty years earlier when no one was particularly bothered and were routine for the time? This is getting silly. Should we go through sixties TV and ask nearly everyone to apologise for nearly everything to whosoever wishes to feel a victim?

    I have some Irish ancestry ... should I ask myself to apologise to me for the Famine?

    It's not just that they were old and routine for the time. It's the fact that there was an element of truth in them. People don't like someone pointing out something which may be or is partly true, particularly if it does not absolve the person about whom it is being said of all responsibility, which seems to the most important thing anyone ever seems to want. ("I am important enough to be apologised to but not important or adult enough to take responsibility for anything I do."(

    There is an element going on here of Caliban raging at himself in the mirror.......

    It's no more than a truism to blame rioters for "bad moral attitudes" whether those riots took place in 1985 or 2011. Tottenham remains an unpleasant place precisely because some of the locals foul their own nests.

    That is correct. But it is racist to believe that black people are predisposed to spending state aid they might receive on building businesses based on dugs and discos.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    richardDodd said:

    SO Letwin was right... in the 80s anyone with a need for drugs in Leeds just had to visit the seedier pubs and clubs in Chapeltown and get recharged..Chapeltown was a renowned no go area at that time for the police..and the population was mainly West Indian

    Yep, West Indian criminal gangs supplied white people with drugs. The blame lay (and lies) on both sides. I believe that like many other middle class white boys in London in the 80s SeanT of this parish used to buy his drugs in Tottenham.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Cyclefree said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The fact that 30 years ago a politician of any kind felt that black people generally would prioritise drugs and discos with any aid they were given is exactly the kind of institutional racism that black people complained about. It turns out they were totally correct.

    Letwin probably was reflecting a wider feeling that was held at the time. I genuinely don't think that it exists anymore and I think he is genuinely mortified that he held such views. He has rightly apologised unreservedly and that is that. We have moved on.

    SO: it is wrong to assume that all black people will use money for drugs. Of course it is. But there was a significant drugs problem in Brixton, where I lived in the mid-1980's, and in Notting Hill, where I worked in the early 1980's and some in the black community were involved. Many of those who took drugs were white of course. It took a lot of effort to deal with it and the police did not behave well - as the Scarman report pointed out. But to pretend that there was no drugs issue is a fairy story. Just as it would be a fairy story to pretend now that there is not an issue with black-on-black knife violence - and for a time it was ignored because the police either preferred not to deal with it or through a sort of racism of indifference (no less damaging in its effects) thought it did not matter because it only affected blacks.

    Very few of us will not have changed our views on some things over 30 years - unless we're Corbyn of course. It's the mark of an adult.

    I completely agree. Letwin's apology should be the end of it. The world has changed significantly in the last 30 years, largely for the better.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    I think point 6 above is particularly interesting.

    I'm thinking a lot about the proposition that what happens in the first year of a Parliament has more influence over the next election than anything that happens later. This is clearly not always true. In particular, it probably doesn't hold if one of the main parties changes leader after that point. Still, there may be less scope for change than one thinks. People say "Events dear boy" but *most* events change nothing.

    It also strikes me that there was a tendency to underestimate the stability of the last Government. "The coalition won't last until 2015" seemed like a truism back in 2011. These days I wonder if I overestimate the likelihood of a post-referendum Tory split.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DrScottThinks: SNP policies risk helping rich at expense of poor, warns Nicola Sturgeon's own poverty tsar: https://t.co/RlCvNIcW6j https://t.co/sLvHuNsx6V
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I know I joke about Jeremy Kyle here - but seriously, it's just the sort of Tell It Like It Is stuff that needs saying.

    The miscreants are given a hard dose of reality for their behaviour and selfish irresponsibility - and a hand up if they want to change their ways, get treatment or mend broken relationships.

    Rare guests with jobs earn rounds of applause - and entitled youngsters on the dole, doped on cannabis, spawning kids - loudly booed. Absent parents - little sympathy for their excuse making and the harm they've done.

    No wonder his show has been running for 10yrs. When I first saw it - I was WTF. This was a foreign land to me - failure in education, morality/responsibility, socialisation and expectations. Now it's one of my favourite shows because it's so straight. And of course the entertainment value of regular meltdowns as cheaters, thieves and liars are exposed/shamed.

    I remain amazed at how many still think that they won't be caught by the lie detector and paternity tests. Almost all of them fess up within 10mins of claiming outraged innocence.
    Cyclefree said:

    CD13 said:

    How can you apologise today for remarks made thirty years earlier when no one was particularly bothered and were routine for the time? This is getting silly. Should we go through sixties TV and ask nearly everyone to apologise for nearly everything to whosoever wishes to feel a victim?

    I have some Irish ancestry ... should I ask myself to apologise to me for the Famine?

    It's not just that they were old and routine for the time. It's the fact that there was an element of truth in them. People don't like someone pointing out something which may be or is partly true, particularly if it does not absolve the person about whom it is being said of all responsibility, which seems to the most important thing anyone ever seems to want. ("I am important enough to be apologised to but not important or adult enough to take responsibility for anything I do."(

    There is an element going on here of Caliban raging at himself in the mirror.......

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Regarding storm names, I have had a bet (only the price of a cup of coffee) with one of my neighbours that we will not reach Storm Nigel (which is his name) before 31 March. I was confident at the start as I had read that there were 12 major storms in the winter of 2013/4 and that was a record, so 14 seemed like a stretch this time. Now, however, I think I've been taken for a mug (of coffee).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Plato, point of order: lie-detector is a term of mythology, not science. Polygraphs just measure physiological autonomic responses. There are a variety of ways to fool them, and they have an accuracy barely over 50%. Their greatest use is in persuading ill-educated criminals that the Magic Box of Truth will find them out, so confession makes sense.

    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Scott_P said:

    @DrScottThinks: SNP policies risk helping rich at expense of poor, warns Nicola Sturgeon's own poverty tsar: https://t.co/RlCvNIcW6j https://t.co/sLvHuNsx6V

    The SNP is so opposed to the wicked impact austerity has on the poorest that it will fight with every sinew it has to ensure that the middle classes are protected from its pernicious effects. Coming soon, welcome help for well-off Scots to fly south to the Med as airport passenger duty is cut and then abolished.

    I did like this from the Herald report:

    The 'initial impressions' of the poverty advisor were expressed in a briefing note to Ms Sturgeon ahead of a meeting in late August. SNP ministers initially tried to keep the document secret, refusing to release it under Freedom of Information laws, but relented after the decision was appealed.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I was at college in Peckham/Camberwell during the mid 80s and my bus route was infamous as being the most dangerous of the time. A totally threatening atmosphere - all thuggery, armed robberies and macho swaggering in large swathes of the area.

    Is Tottenham worse than Wembley or Harlesden or Colindale? The latter I endured for very short periods and wouldn't wish them on anyone.
    Cyclefree said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The fact that 30 years ago a politician of any kind felt that black people generally would prioritise drugs and discos with any aid they were given is exactly the kind of institutional racism that black people complained about. It turns out they were totally correct.

    Letwin probably was reflecting a wider feeling that was held at the time. I genuinely don't think that it exists anymore and I think he is genuinely mortified that he held such views. He has rightly apologised unreservedly and that is that. We have moved on.

    SO: it is wrong to assume that all black people will use money for drugs. Of course it is. But there was a significant drugs problem in Brixton, where I lived in the mid-1980's, and in Notting Hill, where I worked in the early 1980's and some in the black community were involved. Many of those who took drugs were white of course. It took a lot of effort to deal with it and the police did not behave well - as the Scarman report pointed out. But to pretend that there was no drugs issue is a fairy story. Just as it would be a fairy story to pretend now that there is not an issue with black-on-black knife violence - and for a time it was ignored because the police either preferred not to deal with it or through a sort of racism of indifference (no less damaging in its effects) thought it did not matter because it only affected blacks.

    Very few of us will not have changed our views on some things over 30 years - unless we're Corbyn of course. It's the mark of an adult.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    @AlastairMeeks, regarding point 2, I think you were the person who coined "Scötterdämmerung"?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    The only reason for apologies is to correct "bad phrasing" , not the opinion.

    "Wen I was a child ... as St Paul said.

    But I don't think, for instance, that Ken Livingstone should have apologised to Kevan Jones. He felt annoyed with him and meant to insult him. He meant to cause offence.

    He succeeded.

    Pretending to apologise "for causing offence" is then illogical.

    Apologising for having opinions which were mainstream thirty years ago, is even sillier.

    Should I apologise now for this comment if in thirty years time, someone finds it offensive?

    Have I just fallen down a rabbit hole?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I thought Lammy was superb over the riots. No handwringing excuses or patronising the locals. It's a shame that was a very shortlived bright spark in his career.
    JosiasJessop said:

    Thanks for your frank article, Alastair. I might write up some predictions for 2016 and post them on here. Given my track record, people might be better off betting the other way. ;)

    On Letwin: I know David Lammy has a poor reputation on here, but he has a good handle on the the problems facing inner-city black kids. his book "Out of the Ashes" is a bit of a mess, but he defines the problems well, even if I don't agree with all of his proposed solutions.

    In fact, some of Lammy's comments are not a million miles away from Letwin's, even if they were made over twenty years later.

    On 11 August 2011, in an address to Parliament, Lammy attributed part of the cause for England's riots of a few days earlier to three destructive 'culture's that had emerged under the prevailing policies: "A Grand Theft Auto culture that glamorises violence. A consumer culture fixated on the brands we wear, not who we are and what we achieve. A gang culture with warped notions of loyalty, respect and honour."
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wanderer said:

    @AlastairMeeks, regarding point 2, I think you were the person who coined "Scötterdämmerung"?

    I plead guilty to that one.

    Proof that insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result, I'm putting my 2016 predictions together now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,882
    Plato_Says said:

    I was at college in Peckham/Camberwell during the mid 80s and my bus route was infamous as being the most dangerous of the time. A totally threatening atmosphere - all thuggery, armed robberies and macho swaggering in large swathes of the area.

    Is Tottenham worse than Wembley or Harlesden or Colindale? The latter I endured for very short periods and wouldn't wish them on anyone.

    Cyclefree said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The fact that 30 years ago a politician of any kind felt that black people generally would prioritise drugs and discos with any aid they were given is exactly the kind of institutional racism that black people complained about. It turns out they were totally correct.

    Letwin probably was reflecting a wider feeling that was held at the time. I genuinely don't think that it exists anymore and I think he is genuinely mortified that he held such views. He has rightly apologised unreservedly and that is that. We have moved on.

    SO: it is wrong to assume that all black people will use money for drugs. Of course it is. But there was a significant drugs problem in Brixton, where I lived in the mid-1980's, and in Notting Hill, where I worked in the early 1980's and some in the black community were involved. Many of those who took drugs were white of course. It took a lot of effort to deal with it and the police did not behave well - as the Scarman report pointed out. But to pretend that there was no drugs issue is a fairy story. Just as it would be a fairy story to pretend now that there is not an issue with black-on-black knife violence - and for a time it was ignored because the police either preferred not to deal with it or through a sort of racism of indifference (no less damaging in its effects) thought it did not matter because it only affected blacks.

    Very few of us will not have changed our views on some things over 30 years - unless we're Corbyn of course. It's the mark of an adult.
    Threats being directed at my step-son from gangs based in Colindale and Wembey Central are the principal reason we left Kenton in 2007.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Cyclefree said:

    "Last year I made a giant mistake (which in truth I had been pursuing as an idée fixe almost since the 2010 election). I guess if I have a single lesson that I have drawn so far, it is not to get too attached to a single interpretation. An idea can be good, well-reasoned, have backing evidence and still be wrong."

    I wonder if the next idée fixe we will be transfixed by is the idea that a Corbyn-led Labour Party cannot win a majority............

    Gulp!

    I think we can say Lab Majority is extremely unlikely, even with a better leader. Less outlandish are:

    * some kind of Corbyn-led minority Government or, just possibly, coalition.

    * Labour minority Government following a change of leader. Sure, it would be another Corbynite.

    How about this: Nick Palmer wins a by-election, next Labour leader, Prime Minister in 2020?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    CD13 said:

    The only reason for apologies is to correct "bad phrasing" , not the opinion.

    "Wen I was a child ... as St Paul said.

    But I don't think, for instance, that Ken Livingstone should have apologised to Kevan Jones. He felt annoyed with him and meant to insult him. He meant to cause offence.

    He succeeded.

    Pretending to apologise "for causing offence" is then illogical.

    Apologising for having opinions which were mainstream thirty years ago, is even sillier.

    Should I apologise now for this comment if in thirty years time, someone finds it offensive?

    Have I just fallen down a rabbit hole?

    "Have I just fallen down a rabbit hole?"

    As a race of super-intelligent rabbits, transmitting this message from the future and temporarily taking over this account, we would like to complain about your comment.

    But we won't bother, as we won the human-rabbit wars. LOL.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I wouldn't use them for criminal evidence - but catching out the terminally stupid/arrogant on TV seems pretty reliable from the hundreds of Kyle's I've seen. The new tactic is to take cannabis or get wrecked just before the test, so it comes back Inconclusive. That gets the person of interest totally bollocked for wasting his time and money = you're a liar by inference.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, point of order: lie-detector is a term of mythology, not science. Polygraphs just measure physiological autonomic responses. There are a variety of ways to fool them, and they have an accuracy barely over 50%. Their greatest use is in persuading ill-educated criminals that the Magic Box of Truth will find them out, so confession makes sense.

    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Plato, alas, they're being used now on paedophiles out of prison to 'prove' they're not up to their old tricks.

    Given paedophiles are perhaps second only to psychopaths when it comes to lying, this is a shockingly stupid approach to take.

    I'm loath to ban things, but I do think the polygraph should be treated with contempt.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Aggers just mentioned the Ed Stone on TMS.

    When a dumb idea gets cut-through like that...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,788
    Plato_Says said:

    I wouldn't use them for criminal evidence - but catching out the terminally stupid/arrogant on TV seems pretty reliable from the hundreds of Kyle's I've seen. The new tactic is to take cannabis or get wrecked just before the test, so it comes back Inconclusive. That gets the person of interest totally bollocked for wasting his time and money = you're a liar by inference.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, point of order: lie-detector is a term of mythology, not science. Polygraphs just measure physiological autonomic responses. There are a variety of ways to fool them, and they have an accuracy barely over 50%. Their greatest use is in persuading ill-educated criminals that the Magic Box of Truth will find them out, so confession makes sense.

    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html

    Reminds me of the scene in theWire, where a bunch of detectives convince a rather thick young kid that a photcopier is a lie-detector
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd be surprised if smarter paedos haven't found/shared techniques to flatten their responses too. Something as simple as a beta-blocker would surely help.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, alas, they're being used now on paedophiles out of prison to 'prove' they're not up to their old tricks.

    Given paedophiles are perhaps second only to psychopaths when it comes to lying, this is a shockingly stupid approach to take.

    I'm loath to ban things, but I do think the polygraph should be treated with contempt.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    Ms Cyclefree and Mr Observer,

    Thirty years ago, I was a mainstream Labour voter and my opinions were a little different. There's no right or wrong because opinions are always subjective, as is the perceived truth.

    In1980, I might have thought Jimmy Saville was a good chap (I didn't as it happens, but that's not relevant). Now my opinions are different, so should I apologise for being wrong? And if in thirty years time, we discover he was a good chap after all, should I re-apologise.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Miss Plato, there are a few techniques I can still remember from learning about the polygraph some years ago. The most difficult would be entering a Zen trance (does work, though). Drugs can work. There are even ways to use a drawing pin or copper coin.

    And even without any of that the accuracy is scarcely over 50%. The very existence of the polygraph is a masterclass in PR bullshit over science.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,365
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Aggers just mentioned the Ed Stone on TMS.

    When a dumb idea gets cut-through like that...

    Was it marking where South African cricket is buried? Is that what Ed sold it for?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Perhaps polygraphs should be named after male hurricanes so they're taken seriously? :smiley:
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, there are a few techniques I can still remember from learning about the polygraph some years ago. The most difficult would be entering a Zen trance (does work, though). Drugs can work. There are even ways to use a drawing pin or copper coin.

    And even without any of that the accuracy is scarcely over 50%. The very existence of the polygraph is a masterclass in PR bullshit over science.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Wanderer said:

    @AlastairMeeks, regarding point 2, I think you were the person who coined "Scötterdämmerung"?

    I plead guilty to that one.

    Proof that insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result, I'm putting my 2016 predictions together now.
    I liked the image of a Scottish Labour Valhalla engulfed in apocalyptic fire.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    In the Great Space Wars - who was victorious the Mice or the Rabbits?
    MarkHopkins said:

    CD13 said:

    The only reason for apologies is to correct "bad phrasing" , not the opinion.

    "Wen I was a child ... as St Paul said.

    But I don't think, for instance, that Ken Livingstone should have apologised to Kevan Jones. He felt annoyed with him and meant to insult him. He meant to cause offence.

    He succeeded.

    Pretending to apologise "for causing offence" is then illogical.

    Apologising for having opinions which were mainstream thirty years ago, is even sillier.

    Should I apologise now for this comment if in thirty years time, someone finds it offensive?

    Have I just fallen down a rabbit hole?

    "Have I just fallen down a rabbit hole?"

    As a race of super-intelligent rabbits, transmitting this message from the future and temporarily taking over this account, we would like to complain about your comment.

    But we won't bother, as we won the human-rabbit wars. LOL.

This discussion has been closed.