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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2016 elections do not bode well for Labour
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2016 elections do not bode well for Labour
The best way to measure what is happening, however, is to look at the changes in those places where a post-Corbyn by-election reprises a contest previously held on general election day earlier this year.
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This needn't involve a dedicated thread, although it would help to keep such suggestions together, making it easier to check back over time to see which proved successful.
The Tories to finish second bet in Scotland could be a good one, if Labour are not campaigning hard due to a lack of donations. Will £200k do much more than cover deposits and a few leaflets for them?
Also, the England council seats up for election next May are those that were last elected in 2012, at peak Miliband following a poor Budget by the then unpopular coalition. It's almost inevitable that Labour will go backwards from that position, especially if Corbyn seems determined to reshuffle out the few remaining moderate voices in the shad cab.
Leicester will fall from their perch eventually, they have a horrible run of away games to come. Ditto Palace and Watford who won't stay there forever either. Arsenal and MC will qualify, with probably MU in third. The last CL place is then between everyone else, one of Liverpool, Everton or Spurs,so that 4/5 looks very skinny to me. Chelski are too far back even if they win every remaining match.
This is a different Spurs, managed by the best young coach in the League. An interesting stat, of the last 18 England debutants, 10 were coached by Poch. The improvement he gets out of players is phenomenal, look at Dembele.
My money would be on the LibDems getting perhaps 12% this time around (which is down from their 2012 score, but represents a 1.5% improvement on the 2015 result), and UKIP on 13-14%.
Is she really; is she really? Or has an Indy journo been at the brandy butter?
"This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL"
So far, wumper has not been spotted here bearing his own apology...
Scottish Labour remain in disarray so, as I have been saying on here for some months now, I think the bet on Labour coming third in Scotland has value. It really shouldn't happen but the serious lack of money is just the latest straw in the wind.
Mr. Putney, not tips but the only two odds I'd consider for the F1 title race would be Vettel at 5 and Kvyat at 151. Perhaps goes rather saying that I don't think the latter as likely as the former.
Anyway, reasoning:
Vettel - very good driver, de facto number one, Ferrari has no problem with team orders, team made a great leap forward from 2014 to 2015, if that happens again they could be close enough to take the title [NB Mercedes may shift to a team orders approach if Ferrari are that close, which is almost certainly a case of Bad Luck, Nico].
Kvyat - car had perhaps the best chassis last year, using an up to date Renault engine [but that's not necessarily in the positive column], beat Ricciardo last year (Ricciardo's odds are 67), very capable driver.
Williams will struggle because their car hasn't had the best downforce and, using a Mercedes, one suspects the slight delay to getting the most recent engine would become longer if they were threatening the title. McLaren needs a slightly better car and a much better engine. And more reliability. Toro Rosso may leapfrog Red Bull but won't beat Ferrari, because they'll be using a 2015-spec Ferrari engine.
Scotland is another story.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/2015-season-review.html
rcs1000 - are you not missing the point that in May, 2012 the Lib Dems were polling between 8% and 10% in the GE voting intention and polled 16% in the locals?
I can fully understand his need for a score to secure his place on the return to the team but I think he will end up costing us wickets at the other end.
That is still higher than it is now, mind. So assuming the LDs are going to do much better this time around seems optimistic.
I remember a comment possibly from Joe Saward about engines - that the manufacturers have to deliver the same spec engine to all teams at the same time, so Mercedes have to make upgrades available to Williams at the same time as to their own team. Williams might be a good bet for 2nd if the odds are long enough.
The big two unknowns next year are McLaren and Haas, my guess is that they will both surprise on the upside in performance. Manor's new engines could also push Sauber to last place.
I thought that engine-spec rule was set for 2017, in response to the fact Red Bull had been faced with either sticking with Renault or shifting to an out-of-date Ferrari engine.
I think Haas will do well. Got a good engine, done lots of homework this year and Grosjean's an impressive driver. McLaren's fate is largely tied to Honda. From one year to the next, Ferrari improved a fair bit, but Renault went backwards. We'll have to see.
Edited extra bit: thanks
Labour dissident MPs need to establish a base level of performance to judge Jeremy Corbyn against beyond which they are prepared to act and to agree this among themselves. Mind you, it would help if they had the first clue what such an action might be.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-35182274
If so, bodes well.
Now there is little chance of the LibDems having any actual power for the foreseeable future, it is now OK for former members to rejoin the party.
Given how embedded the Corbynites now are in the party, the most obvious conclusion would be a massive SDP2 or Co-Operative Party - but it needs huge numbers though. In theory if they can form the second largest grouping in Parliament they can kick Corbyn out of the LotO role for one of their own (Benn, Johnson, Harman..?) if they have the balls to do it. That's a very big IF though, most of them have spent their lives dominated by the Labour Party and don't know anything different.
Of course, in the meantime the LDs, Tories and UKIP will be more than happy to welcome any defectors.
I don't think they'll do it. Time for rapid action has faded. Corbyn's been there for months. They've settled nicely into impotent griping.
Incidentally someone like Crosby getting an honour would be not just appropriate but quite traditional. That was the purpose of honours in the very first place!
They could've joined the Liberal Party.
Mr. Thompson, must admit, the phrase "No shit, Sherlock" did spring to mind when I saw that story.
What, the man who ensured the PM stayed the PM and actually got an outright majority might get a reward from the PM? No, really?
[I do agree honours should be reformed so it's more about ordinary people who either put in long service to the nation's benefit (charities etc) or those who do extraordinary things, rather than as a standard reward for civil servants and politicians who hang around long enough].
#Kirkstall Road in #Leeds is like a river -people gathering to look, they can't believe what they're seeing. #floods https://t.co/gbQuMVJm3W
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12069821/Jeremy-Corbyn-to-protect-Caroline-Lucas-in-pact-with-Greens.html
Also, as an IT guy, this email story has to have way more to it then has come out so far. It has the feeling of a story that will come out in the campaign proper. Why, for example, is she not suing the hell out of whoever she employed to run it with no backups, or was the lack of backups a feature rather than a bug..?
Which reminds me, apparently there's no love lost between Wolff and Lauda, to the extent there were rumours the latter might exit the team.
Its a pathetic game all papers sink to, can't PB be a bit better?
16% looks achievable for the Lib Dems. They are doing better in local by-elections, and their score in local elections bears little relation to their poll numbers.
31% for Labour? Completely dire. MIlliband achieved 37%, in his first round of local elections. That would suggest Labour's support would go backwards at the next election.
32% for the Conservative. Not especially impressive, but no indication that they'll be troubled much in 2020.
Flood defences aren't magic. It's hard to assess how much difference they have made, or would have made, or the damage to them has made to subsequent flooding.
There'll be criticism about the shortage of sandbags available, but that also might be due to the prolonged and repeated nature of the flooding.
2011 Gov lead +1 = Gov reelected
2006 Opp lead +13 = Opp gain power
2002 Opp lead +1 = Gov reelected
1998 Gov lead +4 = Gov reelected
1993 Opp lead +8 = Opp gain power *
1988 Gov lead +1 = Gov reelected
1984 Gov lead +1 = Gov reelected
1980 Opp lead +2 = Gov reelected **
* Blair replacing Smith was beneficial to the Opposition
** Foot replacing Callaghan was detrimental to the Opposition
Taking the pattern back further we see that the Opposition had a big lead in 1975 and went on to gain power in 1979:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1975
Likewise the Opposition had a big lead in 1971 and went on to gain power in 1974:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:English_local_elections,_1971
And in 1967 the Opposition had a big lead in 1967 and went on to gain power in 1970:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London_Council_election,_1967
I am amazed how people see Hillary Clinton with rose tinted spectacles. She is a deeply, deeply, flawed candidate. She is assailable on so many fronts.
Not sure if the rumoured falling out between Wolff and Lauda is real or not. I'd guess that there was probably a heated exchange overheard by someone and blown out of proportion.
With no Trump, I think Rubio walks it against Hillary. (Hillary, though, walks it against Cruz. Trump is a much more interesting question.)
I wonder how to interpret it. In the cases where the Opposition surges post-GE, is the point that they have suddenly gained credibility (through a change of leader, though that doesn't apply to 67 or 71) and that voters who were already disenchanted with the Government but didn't feel they could back the Opposition at the GE, are enthused by the new-look Opposition sufficiently to give the Government a kicking in the locals and at the next GE?
Worth noting that while swapping Smith for Blair benefited the Opposition, so did swapping Kinnock for Smith.
“Over the next six years we will be investing £2.3 billion in flood defences which is a real terms increase on the £1.7bn invested in the last Parliament. This which will see 1,500 new defences built and 300,000 homes better protected.
"In addition, flood maintenance spending will be protected in real terms over this Parliament.
“There has been no cut to flood spending and during the last Parliament we spent £3.2 billion on flood management and defences compared to £2.7 billion in the previous five years.
“After the 2013/14 floods there was a special one-off additional investment from the Treasury of £270 million spread across three years to improve and repair flood defences which inflated the overall spend.”
Spurs for 4th place is a reasonable tip, but they are still too patchy and have European games on Thursdays to cope with, I cannot see them overtaking Arsenal.
Not saying Lowe isn't earning his crust, only that the foundations of success were laid by Brawn.
When Ecclestone goes, I think Brawn would be a better successor than the much touted Horner.
Flood defences have a purpose but they have a limitation. You cannot wish away the water which has to go somewhere. We have had a weather cycle which has brought warm and wet weather from the south as opposed from the north. Something to do with a butterfly fluttering its wings in China.
Quite weirdly small-minded. And then she and her colleagues contrived to lose Derby North.
Unless you're one of the people who was 21 before they knew "damnyankees" was two words!
I've just laid Mr @blackburn63 £20 at 6/4 that Spurs finish in the top 4. I will stand by my thinking that they're odds against for the CL places. I think there's a case to be made down to Everton in 9th, could be a big last few weeks of the season come April and May.
What MU need to do is what all teams need to do which is to buy wisely.
This season may be presaging a future where more teams have the funds to build a competitive team and the headline teams will have to show some vision and not just a fat cheque book.
In fact the exact opposite of what F1 has become. How most of the F1 grid must look on at Watford and Crystal Palace with envy.
I think Bernie sees Horner as a younger version of himself, though it took all of Bernies skills to stop RB having no engines at all for 2016! I think Horner probably owes a big favour to Bernie now, and the old man doesn't forget these things...