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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents
From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results that the Tories are a certainty for GE2020 and that the red team will be out of power till at least 2025. Nearly ten years is an awful long time.
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Did anyone suggest 'a week is a long time in politics'?
That will please some but it makes for awful govt and equally bland discussion.
Human rights reform still a long way off -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35090994
This gives us a new angle on the renegotiation.
Opt out of 'ever closer union' A deal on benefits. Protection for non-Eurozone and the City, Meh.
But, additionally, a UK Constitution Act detailing the limits of EU action.
So, no need for a new treaty, just a 'written constitution' ensuring UK courts have supremacy.
Either Gove's a genius or someone at the DoJ should be signing up Joshua Rosenberg as an adviser rapido.
The next few months should be Labour's opportunity to stick it to Cameron over the EU renegotiation process, but they seem far more interested in their own internal warfare than in their role as Her Majesty's Official Opposition.
With Rajoy entering a 'Ted Heath' phase in 2016 one wonders what impact this will have on Cammer's June 2016 EU-vote plans? Could the referendum be pushed back to October (or will the expcected looney, Spanish left outcome push it further into 2017)...?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35119760
And a report from HRW:
https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/12/16/if-dead-could-speak/mass-deaths-and-torture-syrias-detention-facilities
It doesn't seem likely that Osborne's numbers are being inflated by a reverse effect though. So it seems reasonable to assume that actually on current numbers he would be ahead of the Jezziah.
In many ways that's an even more frightening thought...
PP + C + the Catalan right wing bunch have 172
You would need to see every single left wing, regionalist and nationalist group to beat that (what, eight parties, including the Basque EAJ who *hate* Podemos?). And I just don't see it.
I think there are two realistic outcomes:
1. A minority PP government in Spain, with both PSOE and C abstaining in the vote of confidence. Why wouldn't PSOE vote down PP? Because they fear that in a new election, they'd end up behind Podemos. PSOE leader Sanchez last night said that PP should be allowed to form the next government, so I think this is the most likely outcome.
2. New elections in February. If PSOE decide to vote against the PP, and Citizens' hold good to their promise not to go into coalition with anyone, then new elections seem almost certain. PP + C + the right wing Catalans can defeat pretty much any collection of left wing parties. (Especially as the centre right Basque EAJ would rather cut off their own legs than get into bed with Podemos.)
"Right wing" parties have more than 50% of the seats:
PP 123
C 40
DIL 9
EAJ 6
---
178
175 needed for majority
In many ways, Citizens' is a reaction to Podemos: an avowedly free market, pro-European group. While you might have see PSOE-C as a coalition, it simply doesn't have the votes without Podemos. And C won't go into coalition with Podemos.
Above all else, though, their rabid pro-Europeanism ("Europe is our future" is their slogan) rules them out of a coalition with Podemos.
So, I guess PSOE + C could be a minority government, but it seems quite unlikely.
In the first round of voting for the new president an overall majority has to be secured - 175+1
But if that does not happen, in the second round just a simple majority is needed.
If Rajoy can't achieve the first - and it is very unlikely - then Sanchez may achieve the second if Podemos abstains, though the resulting government would be incredibly unstable.
The main takeaway from last night is that the two party system is over. PSOE finished behind Podemos in every bilingual region, plus Madrid. PP got its worst result since the 80s. I'd say Rajoy is likely to be toast.
It was also a very bad night for Artur Mas, the Catalan president. His party lost 50% of its vote. Between them the two Catalan parties that formed Junts pel Si got less than 35% and were clearly beaten by the PSC/Cs/PP non-separatist bloc. There was no SNP-style surge in Catalonia. The Catalan nationalist could be pivotal to what happens in the Cortes, but the results give them very little leverage. They'll vote against any PP candidate, but may well abstain on one from the left.
It's all pointing to new elections in 2016 and a different PP leader.
I just don't see a working Left wing coalition in Spain - C and P won't get into bed, I think.
And even if Osborne is Draco Malfoy, I think he'd still win against Jezza whatever their leadership ratings are. Jezza has more baggage than Santa's sleigh - I just can't see anyone bar core strategy Labourites and Greenies voting for him.
It also shows the lack of attraction in a split with the Socialists and Podemos splitting the left wing vote between them leaving PP to come through the middle to be the largest party.
It's not as if Labour MPs need an excuse to sit on their hands and whinge whilst doing nothing but if they did need one it seems to me that Spain gives them one. Mike is right that Corbyn is going nowhere soon. Governing well without meaningful opposition is very hard. Look at how many mistakes the SNP have made.
The problem with PSOE - C is that it requires C to explicitly back the PSOE, which they have said they will not do.
This bullseye targeting worked very well in 2015, and there's no reason why it couldn't work equally well in 2020 and land the Conservatives an even bigger majority.
INMIGRATION = GOOD
It'll be interesting to see how the Libs perform at the next GE if that is the message.
May has now temporarily raised the ban on recruitment outside the EU, so expect those figures to rise.
The cut in training places is a terrible indictment of this govt, refusing to train youngsters because it's easier to import them.
What a shambles.
It is hard to see job growth continuing at the current rate throughout 2016. We are getting very close to frictional unemployment in large parts of the country and only the release valve of immigration is stopping wage inflation (although real wages are now rising quite strongly). That said, such is the momentum that it seems unlikely to me that 2016 will see a reduction in employment overall.
So yes, they are wrong in absolute terms. If their point is that things could be better without the living wage I would disagree with that too but the point is more debatable.
Corbyn hints at online Trident ballot
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4646263.ece
Immigration can develop into a dangerous dependency on the same level as welfare/benefits.
As people will have noticed, I'm not in favour of electronic voting. Balloting in this manner is not as bad, but it needs its rules and process firmly set and validated.
Miss Plato, Corbyn's head is empty as a eunuch's underpants.
Online voting isn't secure. The general public cannot have access to privileged security information that top politicians are given. The whole electoral system is designed so that politicians take decisions on our behalf.
Will there be online votes as to whether we should abolish foreign aid? Or only things where Corbyn disagrees with his own MPs?
One of my Spanish friends has pointed out to me that as the PP won a majority of seats in the Senate last night that constitutional change is impossible without their support.
Farage, of course is on his way down; Farron on his way up!
I have no problems with politicians asking the public for their views. But views polluted by pressure group campaigns should not be seen as being representative of the public as a whole.
I am against using immigrants to band-aid over issues as anything other than a short term fix. Importing skills from elsewhere masks our issues. It may take 5-10yrs to fix them, but we're doing a lot more than we did for ages.
A majority of the nurses that I work with trained overseas. Filipino, Portuguese, Spanish, Indian, Mauritian, Irish etc. A great bunch and judging by last weeks Christmas party very Integrated with British life!
I have been to many churches of late, and the higher the church, the more I dislike it.. and I feel sure I am not alone.
Opinium still had Osborne leading Corbyn 24% to 21% yesterday. However it will take a really bad election result, probably a Labour seat falling to UKIP in a by election, to topple Corbyn
I thought I should probably allow reality to intrude.
Increasingly our overseas recruitment for nurses is in Spain and Portugal though, where there is nursing unemployment. We get graduate nurses from Spain who have often not been able to find work post qualification.
The USA is also a big importer of Nurses and Doctors.
It's the children I feel sorry for ....
I am very clear that I'm an atheist, but respect their views - but that it'd be a waste of their donations to give me literature or come by again. I find Evangelical Christians okay too - but their happy clappy services are a trifle cult-like. They make me very uncomfortable.
Anyone who remembers the Clipper chip understands this is not a new problem ...
I'm a luddite. I have no mobile phone, or tablet (I recently used a touch-screen for the first time. It is witchcraft) and even I know this sort of thing.
For most Leaders of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition, it is downhill from here.
A PSOE minority government tolerated by Cs and the rival factions on the centre-left and nationalists doesn't require them all to get along. I'd have thought that would be Sanchez's objective - do it for 6 months to get government credibility, then ask for a proper mandate.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35123593
Particularly agree with him over circuits coming and going.