Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at th

13

Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
  • Options
    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited December 2015
    RobD said:
    The definition of "Top Tory" by the media is a very very broad church....it seems to be on the Venn diagram the overlapping area between Tory and somebody at said media outlet has heard of them, or in the Mirror's case a Tory.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    edited December 2015

    Sorry Leavers, you're fecked now

    twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/678328176829988865

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    Edit: Oops.. I was thinking of another famous leftie prognosticator ;)
  • Options

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130

    RobD said:
    The definition of "Top Tory" by the media is a very very broad church....
    It's not party specific. Any figure becomes one of note to keep a story interesting. As has been noted before, any backbench critic of a leader usually becomes a 'leading' backbencher, in another example of the trend.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited December 2015

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:
    The definition of "Top Tory" by the media is a very very broad church....
    It's not party specific. Any figure becomes one of note to keep a story interesting. As has been noted before, any backbench critic of a leader usually becomes a 'leading' backbencher, in another example of the trend.
    Grandee is another term banded about for effect.
  • Options

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
  • Options

    That would be the first challenge he has ever had.

    Just praying Chelsea don't go for Simeone.
    The reports are that is what Guardiola wants. I think he has a big task to turn Man City around, they have far too many poor and / or aging players on huge wages.

    So what are we thinking...

    Guardiola to Man City, Mourinho to Man Utd, and Chelski go for...?
    Someone who will develop the club, build a team for the long term, play attacking football, bring the kids through.

    Pochetino would be my first choice but he is better off staying with Spurs, Eddie Howe would be perfect, even AVB now the senior players have gone. My realistic choice would be Paul Clement.
  • Options
    Interesting photo to go with the article...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/678329386488188928
  • Options

    That would be the first challenge he has ever had.

    Just praying Chelsea don't go for Simeone.
    The reports are that is what Guardiola wants. I think he has a big task to turn Man City around, they have far too many poor and / or aging players on huge wages.

    So what are we thinking...

    Guardiola to Man City, Mourinho to Man Utd, and Chelski go for...?
    Someone who will develop the club, build a team for the long term, play attacking football, bring the kids through.

    Pochetino would be my first choice but he is better off staying with Spurs, Eddie Howe would be perfect, even AVB now the senior players have gone. My realistic choice would be Paul Clement.
    Big step up Eddie Howe given how strong it seems the players "union" inside Chelsea dressing is.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited December 2015

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
  • Options
    RobD said:
    Unusually for a newspaper "top Tory", he is someone I've heard of.

    Though I did think he was a Kipper.
  • Options

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
    Well he blocked me on twitter this year. I get the feeling he's the sort of person who might threaten to sue Mike if PB took the piss out of him
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited December 2015

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
    Well he blocked me on twitter this year. I get the feeling he's the sort of person who might threaten to sue Mike if PB took the piss out of him
    Wouldn't surprise me...he has plenty of experience when it comes to legal issues for speaking out on the interwebs ;-)
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    I see Janner has cheated the hangman
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:
    The definition of "Top Tory" by the media is a very very broad church....
    It's not party specific. Any figure becomes one of note to keep a story interesting. As has been noted before, any backbench critic of a leader usually becomes a 'leading' backbencher, in another example of the trend.
    Grandee is another term banded about for effect.
    "To them I was THAT woman. But to me, they were THOSE GRANDEES!"
  • Options

    That would be the first challenge he has ever had.

    Just praying Chelsea don't go for Simeone.
    The reports are that is what Guardiola wants. I think he has a big task to turn Man City around, they have far too many poor and / or aging players on huge wages.

    So what are we thinking...

    Guardiola to Man City, Mourinho to Man Utd, and Chelski go for...?
    Someone who will develop the club, build a team for the long term, play attacking football, bring the kids through.

    Pochetino would be my first choice but he is better off staying with Spurs, Eddie Howe would be perfect, even AVB now the senior players have gone. My realistic choice would be Paul Clement.
    Big step up Eddie Howe given how strong it seems the players "union" inside Chelsea dressing is.
    If you treat the players with respect, as Howe did with Artur last week, they will be onside. If you ask them to stop their attacking instincts, take all the credit when you win and blame the players when you lose, you end up with situation the special ego found himself in.
  • Options

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
    Well he blocked me on twitter this year. I get the feeling he's the sort of person who might threaten to sue Mike if PB took the piss out of him
    His account is only to accept 'Approved followers'
    To paraphrase the legendary Rimmer of Red Dwarf 'The guy is a clueless gimboid'
  • Options

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
    Well he blocked me on twitter this year. I get the feeling he's the sort of person who might threaten to sue Mike if PB took the piss out of him
    His account is only to accept 'Approved followers'
    To paraphrase the legendary Rimmer of Red Dwarf 'The guy is a clueless gimboid'
    ECCCHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO chamber...
  • Options

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
    Well he blocked me on twitter this year. I get the feeling he's the sort of person who might threaten to sue Mike if PB took the piss out of him
    His account is only to accept 'Approved followers'
    To paraphrase the legendary Rimmer of Red Dwarf 'The guy is a clueless gimboid'
    ECCCHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO chamber...
    Indeed.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited December 2015
    He just can't help himself. His supports will say he is being honest and genuine, the public will think f##k me he is condoning mass murdering communists. And he wonders why he gets the press on his back.

    Imagine if Cameron said, that Hilter he wasn't so bad and we wouldn't have the modern day super productive Germany without him....
  • Options
    Usual caveats about subsamples apply (they are useless, but this did make me smile)

    Opinium Scotland: SNP: 62%, CON: 14%, LAB: 10%, LD: 3%, GRN: 4%, UKIP: 6%.
  • Options
    surbiton said:
    Not so much in the rest of England, Scotland or Wales....
  • Options
    In that Sunday Times interview Corbyn says he's staying until 2020 and reading between the lines he wants to bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet.
  • Options
    MontyMonty Posts: 346

    He just can't help himself. His supports will say he is being honest and genuine, the public will think f##k me he is condoning mass murdering communists. And he wonders why he gets the press on his back.

    Imagine if Cameron said, that Hilter he wasn't so bad and we wouldn't have the modern day super productive Germany without him....
    Corbyn has absolutely no concept of strategy or winning support from unlikely places to build a consensus. That's my biggest issue with him as a leader.
    Obviously his politics are bonkers too.
  • Options

    In that Sunday Times interview Corbyn says he's staying until 2020 and reading between the lines he wants to bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet.

    Bringing winners into the team.....
  • Options

    In that Sunday Times interview Corbyn says he's staying until 2020 and reading between the lines he wants to bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet.

    Bringing winners into the team.....
    To be fair to Jez, you could have said the same about Cameron when he brought William Hague back into the Shadow Cabinet
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    runnymede said:

    I see Janner has cheated the hangman

    Ugh - go crawl back under your stone.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I can find no record of an Opinium poll from last month. Is the Observer possibly confusing it with Survation?
  • Options
    Tim Shipman

    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    Three cabinet ministers set to quit if Cameron doesn't let them campaign for out

    Fox spoke out after ministers asked him to break cover to flush out wavering Eurosceptics

    Theresa Villiers spoke out in cabinet this week about renegotiation and visited Cameron in No 10 to complain PM not tough enough. See STimes

    Liam Fox: Britain shouldn't be "tied to an economically failing, socially tense and politically unstable project”.
  • Options

    In that Sunday Times interview Corbyn says he's staying until 2020 and reading between the lines he wants to bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet.

    Isn't Ed focusing on becoming a climate change evangelist?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Tim Shipman

    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    Three cabinet ministers set to quit if Cameron doesn't let them campaign for out

    Fox spoke out after ministers asked him to break cover to flush out wavering Eurosceptics

    Theresa Villiers spoke out in cabinet this week about renegotiation and visited Cameron in No 10 to complain PM not tough enough. See STimes

    Liam Fox: Britain shouldn't be "tied to an economically failing, socially tense and politically unstable project”.

    I'm sure Cameron will be swayed by the threat of losing the titan that is Theresa Villiers.
  • Options
    Hurry up fantasy league tables... will love tonight's pl and ff tables then...
  • Options

    Hurry up fantasy league tables... will love tonight's pl and ff tables then...

    The shame. I'm now behind you.
  • Options
    Not for long..

    Hands off poch...
  • Options
    Reverse takeover

    Salma Yaqoob, the former leader of George Galloway’s Respect party, has applied to become a Labour Party member in Hall Green

    Labour moderates are fighting to prevent a leading activist in Stop the War being allowed into the party with a view to being selected as an MP.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12060187/Labour-moderates-fighting-to-stop-leading-Stop-the-War-activist-joining-the-party.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • Options

    Hurry up fantasy league tables... will love tonight's pl and ff tables then...

    The shame. I'm now behind you.
    West Ham ahead of Liverpool on goal difference
  • Options
    The book also says Labour private polls showed that Ed Miliband was a massive liability. However, unlike the Tories, who spelled out Cameron’s problems to his face, Labour censored its findings to avoid embarrassing Mr Miliband – and paid a heavy price when it was proved true on polling day.

    A private Labour survey in 2013 asked voters ‘the three best reasons for not voting Labour’.

    Crushingly, the main factor was Miliband himself, followed by immigration and welfare. The authors state: ‘The information was deleted beyond the smallest group of Miliband advisers.’

    The Labour polls also showed Mr Miliband’s controversial ‘core vote’ strategy was a ‘dead end’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3367352/David-Cameron-s-handwritten-note-reveals-fear-losing-s-election.html
  • Options
    Bayern Munich to announce Carlo Ancelotti as new manager in next few days

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/dec/19/carlo-ancelotti-bayern-munich-manager-pep-guardiola
  • Options
    Corbyn complains about disloyalty: "We should hold shadow cabinet meetings in public. I think I’m the only one who doesn’t leak.”
  • Options
    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,552

    Corbyn complains about disloyalty: "We should hold shadow cabinet meetings in public. I think I’m the only one who doesn’t leak.”

    And people claim he doesn't have a sense of humour.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2015
    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.
  • Options
    Wow

    And last night the tentacles of the scandal even threatened to reach into Ukip after its only MP, Douglas Carswell, complained about the ‘aggressive’ behaviour of Matthew Richardson – the Ukip party secretary who is also a close friend of Mark Clarke.

    Shortly after a furious Commons bust-up with Mr Richardson, Mr Carswell received a threatening phone call from a senior Ukip figure asking ‘grossly intrusive questions’ about the state of his marriage.

    Richardson, was best man at the wedding of Clarke – dubbed the ‘Tatler Tory’ after the magazine tipped him as a future Minister – and is a Freemason in the same Lodge. He denies behaving aggressively towards Carswell, or any knowledge of the phone call.

    https://t.co/RKMw7x2Vwk
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
    This may not please @stellacreasy. Corbyn reinterprets the mob going to her office. "It wasn’t a march. There was a lobby of her office,”
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    I get the impression Corbyn doesn't give a fig what the PLP thinks of him. He must know he has them castrated.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    I get the impression Corbyn doesn't give a fig what the PLP thinks of him. He must know he has them castrated.
    A few weeks ago, I had a chat with somebody who knows the Labour Party quite well and they said the problem the Anti-Corbynites have is none of the potential replacements will fall on their sword like a few Tories did in 2003 to ensure Michael Howard was elected unopposed.

    Whilst that continues, Corbyn is safe.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2015

    Wow

    And last night the tentacles of the scandal even threatened to reach into Ukip after its only MP, Douglas Carswell, complained about the ‘aggressive’ behaviour of Matthew Richardson – the Ukip party secretary who is also a close friend of Mark Clarke.

    Shortly after a furious Commons bust-up with Mr Richardson, Mr Carswell received a threatening phone call from a senior Ukip figure asking ‘grossly intrusive questions’ about the state of his marriage.

    Richardson, was best man at the wedding of Clarke – dubbed the ‘Tatler Tory’ after the magazine tipped him as a future Minister – and is a Freemason in the same Lodge. He denies behaving aggressively towards Carswell, or any knowledge of the phone call.

    https://t.co/RKMw7x2Vwk

    If UKIP weren't such a bunch of disorganised amateurs they'd probably be on more than 20% in the polls. I saw their HQ in Oldham/Royton and amateur doesn't even begin to describe the state of things there.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284

    Almost a third of Labour supporters do not think that Jeremy Corbyn will lead Labour into the next general election, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll to mark the Labour leader’s first 100 days in office.

    A majority of likely voters (57%) – including 30% of Labour supporters – said they did not expect Corbyn to be in charge at the 2020 election.

    Many of the survey’s findings will make grim reading for Labour MPs and supporters, three and a half months after Corbyn won an extraordinary mandate from party supporters in the leadership election to succeed Ed Miliband.

    He reaches the 100th day of what has been a turbulent start to his leadership on Monday.

    When asked who they believed would make the best prime minister, 41% of all questioned named Cameron, compared with just 20% who chose Corbyn. Only 54% of Labour voters thought Corbyn would be the best PM, whereas 91% of Tory voters selected Cameron.

    The poll put the Conservatives on 38%, eight points ahead of Labour, which is on 30%. A month ago the gap was 7%.

    The UK Independence party (Ukip), on 16%, has dropped only one point since last month, despite rumblings over the leadership of Nigel Farage.

    The SNP and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged since November on 6% and 5% respectively, while the Greens have risen two percentage points to 5% in a month. An Opinium poll on 17 December 2010, at almost the same stage of Ed Miliband’s leadership, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 37%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/19/30-per-cent-labour-supporters-jeremy-corbyn-not-leader-election

    So Tory lead over Labour almost unchanged since the election bar a fractional 1% increase, UKIP the biggest gainers up 3%
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284

    The poll also asked voters to choose who they thought would be the better prime minister out of Jeremy Corbyn and three plausible Conservative successors to David Cameron, who has made clear that he will stand down at the next general election.

    Of the three, Boris Johnson fared best. In a Corbyn contest between the Mayor of London and Corbyn, 34% of voters favoured Johnson against 23% for Corbyn. When Corbyn was pitted against Theresa May, 29% said the current Home Secretary would be the better PM against 23% who named Corbyn. George Osborne, the chancellor, fared worst, with just 24% of voters judging him the best prime minister against 21% for Corbyn.

    So even Osborne leads Corbyn even if May and Boris poll best
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
    This may not please @stellacreasy. Corbyn reinterprets the mob going to her office. "It wasn’t a march. There was a lobby of her office,”
    It's the kinder, gentler politics.
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
    This may not please @stellacreasy. Corbyn reinterprets the mob going to her office. "It wasn’t a march. There was a lobby of her office,”
    It's the kinder, gentler politics.
    I'm kinda worried at some stage this mob will start focussing on Tories.

    Then those Tories for Corbyn will go very quiet.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Tweet4Labour: Labour moderates need to better understand why some people REALLY like @jeremycorbyn https://t.co/P4JgstA4l6
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Almost a third of Labour supporters d not think that Jeremy Corbyn will lead Labour into the next general election, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll to mark the Labour leader’s first 100 days in office.

    A majority of likely voters (57%) – including 30% of Labour supporters – said they did not expect Corbyn to be in charge at the 2020 election.

    Many of the survey’s findings will make grim reading for Labour MPs and supporters, three and a half months after Corbyn won an extraordinary mandate from party supporters in the leadership election to succeed Ed Miliband.

    He reaches the 100th day of what has been a turbulent start to his leadership on Monday.

    When asked who they believed would make the best prime minister, 41% of all questioned named Cameron, compared with just 20% who chose Corbyn. Only 54% of Labour voters thought Corbyn would be the best PM, whereas 91% of Tory voters selected Cameron.

    The poll put the Conservatives on 38%, eight points ahead of Labour, which is on 30%. A month ago the gap was 7%.

    The UK Independence party (Ukip), on 16%, has dropped only one point since last month, despite rumblings over the leadership of Nigel Farage.

    The SNP and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged since November on 6% and 5% respectively, while the Greens have risen two percentage points to 5% in a month. An Opinium poll on 17 December 2010, at almost the same stage of Ed Miliband’s leadership, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 37%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/19/30-per-cent-labour-supporters-jeremy-corbyn-not-leader-election

    So Tory lead over Labour almost unchanged since the election bar a fractional 1% increase, UKIP the biggest gainers up 3%
    Compare Opinium polls with Opinium polls, not the GE result.

  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    LOL....Eoin the man who is on the wrong side of the debate / history every single time.
    This was the tweet of election night, shortly after Swindon South and Nuneaton saw swings to the Tories and people started talking about a Tory majority

    https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/596478437839269888
    That might be better than Sion Simon's article...
    For next Sunday, I'm doing a review of the year, with some awards, Eoin is a contender for the Sion Simon Nostradamus award.
    I would have thought he would have 1st, 2nd and 3rd sewn up in that award category...
    Well he blocked me on twitter this year. I get the feeling he's the sort of person who might threaten to sue Mike if PB took the piss out of him
    As a teaboy in some no name uni's library I doubt he has the £££ to be suing anyone.
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
    This may not please @stellacreasy. Corbyn reinterprets the mob going to her office. "It wasn’t a march. There was a lobby of her office,”
    It's the kinder, gentler politics.
    It was the sort of return to a flying pickets type of lobby we could expect from a Corbyn government.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Scott_P said:

    @Tweet4Labour: Labour moderates need to better understand why some people REALLY like @jeremycorbyn https://t.co/P4JgstA4l6

    Corbynistas need to better understand why voters REALLY dislike @jeremycorbyn
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.

    Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.

    Heating with gas is incredibly efficient. It's a much better idea than using a power station to produce electricity, then sending the electricity over wires, and then passing the electricity through something to generate heat through electrical resistance.

    But that's just my view.
    When doing carbon footprint analysis, aren't you supposed to do it for the full energy/product cycle from extraction/manufacture through delivery, use and disposal? On that basis, surely gas has about the lowest carbon footprint of any of the hydrocarbon sources.
    Yes, absolutely. However you cut it, gas is by far the cleanest, by far the most efficient, and by far the most abundant and cheap hydrocarbon.

    The next two decades will be dominated by solar and natural gas.
    Well my solar panels were so poor this week they wouldn't have made a cup of tea. On thursday they produced nil. Mind you from Spring to Autumn they were reasonable but unfortunately you need electricity 24/7 x 365 days pa


    That's why I said solar and gas.

    The price of solar panels has fallen - on a per watt basis - at 22% a year for the last 40 years. There is every reason to expect that will continue for at least the next eight or nine years.

    I have a house in America (Long Island), and I recently got contacted by a solar company. The pitch was this:

    "You currently spend around $100 per month on electricity. Let us put panels on your roof - at no cost to you! - and we'll guarantee you just $90 per month for your electricity for 20 years. No upfront cost, just pay us less, and the same amount for 20 years!"

    Now, I'm not going to take this. (I doubt I'll own it for 20 years, and I'm not there often enough to run up $1,200 of electricity bills in a year.) But you know what: at some point it'll make financial sense.

    At a certain price, everyone will have panels on their roof.
    Robert, we got the same deal from a company which is, ultimately, owned by a certain principal at Tesla.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    @Tweet4Labour: Labour moderates need to better understand why some people REALLY like @jeremycorbyn https://t.co/P4JgstA4l6

    I bet the person who wrote that is convinced that the current polling is a conspiracy, because everybody they know loves JC...
  • Options

    Reverse takeover

    Salma Yaqoob, the former leader of George Galloway’s Respect party, has applied to become a Labour Party member in Hall Green

    Labour moderates are fighting to prevent a leading activist in Stop the War being allowed into the party with a view to being selected as an MP.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12060187/Labour-moderates-fighting-to-stop-leading-Stop-the-War-activist-joining-the-party.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    The forerunner of more of the same.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    edited December 2015
    Danny565 said:

    George Osborne, the chancellor, fared worst, with just 24% of voters judging him the best prime minister against 21% for Corbyn.

    This points to a very hung parliament if 2020 is Osborne vs Corbyn - as the thread header reminds us, leader match-ups are a more reliable guide than voting intentions.
    Osborne being leader would also mean a new chancellor, so a new match up in the 'economic competence' question. Though it's probably McDonnell versus Javid as it stands.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited December 2015
    Newcastle are that crap, are we sure the players are actually professionals and not just agency workers from Sport Direct warehouse?
  • Options

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
    This may not please @stellacreasy. Corbyn reinterprets the mob going to her office. "It wasn’t a march. There was a lobby of her office,”
    It's the kinder, gentler politics.
    It was the sort of return to a flying pickets type of lobby we could expect from a Corbyn government.
    Christmas Number 1 in 1983:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgDKtLPp46s
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    That would be the first challenge he has ever had.

    Just praying Chelsea don't go for Simeone.
    The reports are that is what Guardiola wants. I think he has a big task to turn Man City around, they have far too many poor and / or aging players on huge wages.

    So what are we thinking...

    Guardiola to Man City, Mourinho to Man Utd, and Chelski go for...?
    Someone who will develop the club, build a team for the long term, play attacking football, bring the kids through.

    Pochetino would be my first choice but he is better off staying with Spurs, Eddie Howe would be perfect, even AVB now the senior players have gone. My realistic choice would be Paul Clement.
    Chelsea should get Pardew
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    HYUFD said:

    The poll also asked voters to choose who they thought would be the better prime minister out of Jeremy Corbyn and three plausible Conservative successors to David Cameron, who has made clear that he will stand down at the next general election.

    Of the three, Boris Johnson fared best. In a Corbyn contest between the Mayor of London and Corbyn, 34% of voters favoured Johnson against 23% for Corbyn. When Corbyn was pitted against Theresa May, 29% said the current Home Secretary would be the better PM against 23% who named Corbyn. George Osborne, the chancellor, fared worst, with just 24% of voters judging him the best prime minister against 21% for Corbyn.

    So even Osborne leads Corbyn even if May and Boris poll best
    I don't actually think the issue is the proportions who definitely want one of them to be PM - as the figures show, the gap isn't huge, and I suspect that Corbyn's positive fan club is more enthusiastic than, say, May's, but everyone scores below their current party support levels. The question is whether people actively vote against them. There is obviously an anti-Corbyn vote out there among some people who'd otherwise vote Labour (hello Southam) just as there are Tories who recoil from Boris or Osborne (again, it doesn't seem to me that May excites such strong reactions either way).

    But I'm not sure we can predict with confidence how voters will feel about any of them in three years' time - Corbyn has had 100 days of solidly negative press, and that's something all leaders go through and will challenge whoever follows Cameron too. The electoral case for Boris is his proven Teflon nature. When something bad comes up for Osborne, he looks shifty. When it happens to Boris, he laughs. (But can one laugh too much to be seen as a potential PM?)
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Reverse takeover

    Salma Yaqoob, the former leader of George Galloway’s Respect party, has applied to become a Labour Party member in Hall Green

    Labour moderates are fighting to prevent a leading activist in Stop the War being allowed into the party with a view to being selected as an MP.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12060187/Labour-moderates-fighting-to-stop-leading-Stop-the-War-activist-joining-the-party.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Think of it as a pincer movement.

    Respect + Greens = Labour 2020

    Sane Labour - who knows?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    That would be the first challenge he has ever had.

    Just praying Chelsea don't go for Simeone.
    The reports are that is what Guardiola wants. I think he has a big task to turn Man City around, they have far too many poor and / or aging players on huge wages.

    So what are we thinking...

    Guardiola to Man City, Mourinho to Man Utd, and Chelski go for...?
    Someone who will develop the club, build a team for the long term, play attacking football, bring the kids through.

    Pochetino would be my first choice but he is better off staying with Spurs, Eddie Howe would be perfect, even AVB now the senior players have gone. My realistic choice would be Paul Clement.
    Chelsea should get Pardew
    Don't Chelsea have enough injunctions in place?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2015
    It was originally a number 2 hit for Yazoo (Vince Clarke and Alison Moyet) 18 months earlier, kept off the top spot by the 1982 Eurovision winner Nicole with "A Little Peace".

    http://www.officialcharts.com/charts/singles-chart/19820516/7501/

    Corbyn on Benn: "I was appalled that MPs should clap, shout and cheer when we were deciding to go and bomb somewhere."

    How to make friends and influence people...
    This may not please @stellacreasy. Corbyn reinterprets the mob going to her office. "It wasn’t a march. There was a lobby of her office,”
    It's the kinder, gentler politics.
    It was the sort of return to a flying pickets type of lobby we could expect from a Corbyn government.
    Christmas Number 1 in 1983:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgDKtLPp46s
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost a third of Labour supporters d not think that Jeremy Corbyn will lead Labour into the next general election, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll to mark the Labour leader’s first 100 days in office.

    A majority of likely voters (57%) – including 30% of Labour supporters – said they did not expect Corbyn to be in charge at the 2020 election.

    Many of the survey’s findings will make grim reading for Labour MPs and supporters, three and a half months after Corbyn won an extraordinary mandate from party supporters in the leadership election to succeed Ed Miliband.

    He reaches the 100th day of what has been a turbulent start to his leadership on Monday.

    When asked who they believed would make the best prime minister, 41% of all questioned named Cameron, compared with just 20% who chose Corbyn. Only 54% of Labour voters thought Corbyn would be the best PM, whereas 91% of Tory voters selected Cameron.

    The poll put the Conservatives on 38%, eight points ahead of Labour, which is on 30%. A month ago the gap was 7%.

    The UK Independence party (Ukip), on 16%, has dropped only one point since last month, despite rumblings over the leadership of Nigel Farage.

    The SNP and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged since November on 6% and 5% respectively, while the Greens have risen two percentage points to 5% in a month. An Opinium poll on 17 December 2010, at almost the same stage of Ed Miliband’s leadership, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 37%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/19/30-per-cent-labour-supporters-jeremy-corbyn-not-leader-election

    So Tory lead over Labour almost unchanged since the election bar a fractional 1% increase, UKIP the biggest gainers up 3%
    Compare Opinium polls with Opinium polls, not the GE result.

    Opinium was one of the more accurate pollsters at the election and generally had the Tories ahead
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284

    HYUFD said:

    The poll also asked voters to choose who they thought would be the better prime minister out of Jeremy Corbyn and three plausible Conservative successors to David Cameron, who has made clear that he will stand down at the next general election.

    Of the three, Boris Johnson fared best. In a Corbyn contest between the Mayor of London and Corbyn, 34% of voters favoured Johnson against 23% for Corbyn. When Corbyn was pitted against Theresa May, 29% said the current Home Secretary would be the better PM against 23% who named Corbyn. George Osborne, the chancellor, fared worst, with just 24% of voters judging him the best prime minister against 21% for Corbyn.

    So even Osborne leads Corbyn even if May and Boris poll best
    I don't actually think the issue is the proportions who definitely want one of them to be PM - as the figures show, the gap isn't huge, and I suspect that Corbyn's positive fan club is more enthusiastic than, say, May's, but everyone scores below their current party support levels. The question is whether people actively vote against them. There is obviously an anti-Corbyn vote out there among some people who'd otherwise vote Labour (hello Southam) just as there are Tories who recoil from Boris or Osborne (again, it doesn't seem to me that May excites such strong reactions either way).

    But I'm not sure we can predict with confidence how voters will feel about any of them in three years' time - Corbyn has had 100 days of solidly negative press, and that's something all leaders go through and will challenge whoever follows Cameron too. The electoral case for Boris is his proven Teflon nature. When something bad comes up for Osborne, he looks shifty. When it happens to Boris, he laughs. (But can one laugh too much to be seen as a potential PM?)
    It does look like Osborne v Corbyn could produce a hung parliament but Osborne would remain PM
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out
  • Options
    Hoorar the fantasy footie tables been updated.... tse=lvg?
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited December 2015

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Wishful thinking. A majority of existing members supported Corbyn, presumably with plenty of crossover from those who had supported pre-Corbyn leaderships, so they clearly have no issue switching back and forth. So if Corbyn is proven a disaster, they will, I assume, switch back in numbers to the other strands of Labour thinking, without having needed to split.
    Not true a majority of members supported him. As new members were included as members it isn't possible to know what existing members would have voted. If new members voted in at all a similar ratio to £3ers then it's entirely plausible Corbyn lost the existing members but won it due to sign ups.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284

    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
    Owen Patterson and maybe IDS
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
    With posts like that you undermine your own credibility.

    Fox may be a monomaniac and fantasist but he's a serious figure in the party (even though I disagree with him on many things, it's been clear from our discussions over the years that he's thought through his positions in some detail)
  • Options
    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    Because two are party leaders proposing unicorns for anyone wgo votes red and the other is Chancellor trying to eliminate a budget deficit mainly through spending cuts. The public's perception of Osborne currently is intrinsically linked to his performance as Chancellor and not his pluses or minuses regarding being a party leader.

    Come the end of the Parliament the notion Corbyn will be competitive is ... Interesting.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
    With posts like that you undermine your own credibility.

    Fox may be a monomaniac and fantasist but he's a serious figure in the party (even though I disagree with him on many things, it's been clear from our discussions over the years that he's thought through his positions in some detail)
    Indeed he was Secretary of State four years ago and a leadership contender a decade ago (like Davis) but like Davis he is now yesterday's man more than a current big beast. That he has thought through his positions is great but that doesn't make him any more than a backbencher for the last four years.
  • Options
    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    I'd point out that 18 months before he led the Tory party to the most votes any party has ever received at a general election, John Major was the choice of 5% of voters to be Tory leader/PM

    Hope for both Ozzy and Jez
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    Because two are party leaders proposing unicorns for anyone wgo votes red and the other is Chancellor trying to eliminate a budget deficit mainly through spending cuts. The public's perception of Osborne currently is intrinsically linked to his performance as Chancellor and not his pluses or minuses regarding being a party leader.

    Come the end of the Parliament the notion Corbyn will be competitive is ... Interesting.
    That's not answering the point of why Osborne fares so badly vs Corbyn, compared to how Cameron ALWAYS fared against Miliband (even in the mid-term of the last parliament, Cameron had a healthy lead on "best PM" questions despite Miliband "promising unicorns for anyone who votes red" and the unpopularity of spending cuts).
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
    Owen Patterson and maybe IDS
    Owen Patterson quite possibly yes. I suspect even IDS views himself as yesterday's man regarding Europe. He seems to genuinely be more interested in his welfare reforms than the Euro debates that so exercised the IDS of over two decades ago. He seems to have moved on.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    edited December 2015
    Sri Lanka have collapsed from 71/0 to 133 all out in their test match v New Zealand, including a comedy run out
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    Because two are party leaders proposing unicorns for anyone wgo votes red and the other is Chancellor trying to eliminate a budget deficit mainly through spending cuts. The public's perception of Osborne currently is intrinsically linked to his performance as Chancellor and not his pluses or minuses regarding being a party leader.

    Come the end of the Parliament the notion Corbyn will be competitive is ... Interesting.
    That's not answering the point of why Osborne fares so badly vs Corbyn, compared to how Cameron ALWAYS fared against Miliband (even in the mid-term of the last parliament, Cameron had a healthy lead on "best PM" questions despite Miliband "promising unicorns for anyone who votes red" and the unpopularity of spending cuts).
    Yes it does. Miliband was Party Leader in the midterm of last parliament. Osborne is not party leader today. You are comparing veal to Stilton and trying to compare wine vintage.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited December 2015

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    Because two are party leaders proposing unicorns for anyone wgo votes red and the other is Chancellor trying to eliminate a budget deficit mainly through spending cuts. The public's perception of Osborne currently is intrinsically linked to his performance as Chancellor and not his pluses or minuses regarding being a party leader.

    Come the end of the Parliament the notion Corbyn will be competitive is ... Interesting.
    That's not answering the point of why Osborne fares so badly vs Corbyn, compared to how Cameron ALWAYS fared against Miliband (even in the mid-term of the last parliament, Cameron had a healthy lead on "best PM" questions despite Miliband "promising unicorns for anyone who votes red" and the unpopularity of spending cuts).
    Yes it does. Miliband was Party Leader in the midterm of last parliament. Osborne is not party leader today. You are comparing veal to Stilton and trying to compare wine vintage.
    I wonder what Gordon Brown thinks of your theory that someone moving from Chancellor to PM automatically makes them more popular.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284

    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    I'd point out that 18 months before he led the Tory party to the most votes any party has ever received at a general election, John Major was the choice of 5% of voters to be Tory leader/PM

    Hope for both Ozzy and Jez
    That was when Thatcher was included in the poll as preferred Tory leader (once she exited her supporters went en masse to Major), when the first polls started comparing how Major would do v Kinnock he at least matched Heseltine and sometimes even exceeded his score
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    Because two are party leaders proposing unicorns for anyone wgo votes red and the other is Chancellor trying to eliminate a budget deficit mainly through spending cuts. The public's perception of Osborne currently is intrinsically linked to his performance as Chancellor and not his pluses or minuses regarding being a party leader.

    Come the end of the Parliament the notion Corbyn will be competitive is ... Interesting.
    That's not answering the point of why Osborne fares so badly vs Corbyn, compared to how Cameron ALWAYS fared against Miliband (even in the mid-term of the last parliament, Cameron had a healthy lead on "best PM" questions despite Miliband "promising unicorns for anyone who votes red" and the unpopularity of spending cuts).
    Osborne still leads Corbyn even if by a narrower margin than Cameron does
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The new stupidity test: anyone who thinks Corbyn has more than a zero per cent chance of winning the next election.

    I don't think it would be as foolproof a stupidity test as anyone who thinks Osborne as leader of the Tories could perform better in a GE than Cameron.
    He could.

    Cameron never got the chance to enter a General Election against Corbyn or against a party led by Corbyn for nearly five years. Osborne v Corbyn will be more one sided than Cameron v Miliband or Cameron v Brown ever was.
    Then why is Corbyn much more competitive in polling match-ups against Osborne, than Miliband ever was in match-ups against Cameron?
    Because two are party leaders proposing unicorns for anyone wgo votes red and the other is Chancellor trying to eliminate a budget deficit mainly through spending cuts. The public's perception of Osborne currently is intrinsically linked to his performance as Chancellor and not his pluses or minuses regarding being a party leader.

    Come the end of the Parliament the notion Corbyn will be competitive is ... Interesting.
    That's not answering the point of why Osborne fares so badly vs Corbyn, compared to how Cameron ALWAYS fared against Miliband (even in the mid-term of the last parliament, Cameron had a healthy lead on "best PM" questions despite Miliband "promising unicorns for anyone who votes red" and the unpopularity of spending cuts).
    Yes it does. Miliband was Party Leader in the midterm of last parliament. Osborne is not party leader today. You are comparing veal to Stilton and trying to compare wine vintage.
    I wonder what Gordon Brown thinks of your theory that someone moving from Chancellor to PM automatically makes them more popular.
    I never said that! I said they'll judge a party leader as to how they perform as party leader and not just as to how they judge them in their current job. Brown got judged differently as PM to how he was as Chancellor before he became PM.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
    Owen Patterson and maybe IDS
    Owen Patterson quite possibly yes. I suspect even IDS views himself as yesterday's man regarding Europe. He seems to genuinely be more interested in his welfare reforms than the Euro debates that so exercised the IDS of over two decades ago. He seems to have moved on.
    He has almost finished his welfare reforms and will then likely leave the government to join the Out campaign, John Redwood, Bernard Jenkin, Peter Lilley also likely Out backers who used to be Tory frontbenchers
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2015
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Liam Fox has tonight declared Britain should leave the EU in the Sunday Times. Most senior figure who has served Cameron's govt to opt out

    So a backbencher who resigned from ministerial politics over four years ago? Who next, David Davis?

    I'm sure there are credible faces for Tories Out but it has to get better than that surely?
    Owen Patterson and maybe IDS
    Owen Patterson quite possibly yes. I suspect even IDS views himself as yesterday's man regarding Europe. He seems to genuinely be more interested in his welfare reforms than the Euro debates that so exercised the IDS of over two decades ago. He seems to have moved on.
    He has almost finished his welfare reforms and will then likely leave the government to join the Out campaign, John Redwood, Bernard Jenkin, Peter Lilley also likely Out backers who used to be Tory frontbenchers
    Which of them do you feel does not fall under the heading yesterday's men?

    Seriously there must be names that didn't give Major a headache two decades ago to be relevant?

    These names are about as incredible as the Remain team announcing it has the support of Ken Clarke ...
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Interesting post.Peter Kelner has consistently said the 2 fundamentals to winning a GE are economic competence and leadership.He could be right.In such matters.I await the view from public servant,Prof .John Curtice.He has had a terrific 2015 and has his nose to the ground for Scotland in 2016.
    It needs to be said the Tories are rigging the electoral system via the most blatant gerry-mandering of IER,losing 1.9 million off the ER and attacking Labour party funding via the TUBill ,19% cut to short-money.The reduction in the number of MPs from 650 to 600 could easily be another nail in the LibDems' coffin but Labour is probably going to suffer most,a few Tory MPs could be under threat too.Not to mention the revenge attack on the HoL for shafting Osborne's sneaky Statutory Instrument. back where it belonged in a place where the sun don't shine.This government is getting more and more autocratic,rigging the electoral system.
This discussion has been closed.