politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers
A month today, on January 19th, the investigation into what went wrong with the general election polling will be announcing its findings at a special event in London.
Both this and Mike's figures are at final polls (i.e. when everyone has made up their minds). Does it make much difference if you go back 1/3/6 months?
Both this and Mike's figures are at final polls (i.e. when everyone has made up their minds). Does it make much difference if you go back 1/3/6 months?
6 months before the election, I think the gap between Dave and Ed was probably even bigger.
In the mid-term of the parliament, I think Miliband's "satisfaction" ratings were often ahead of Cameron's, but the "best PM" question always showed a comfortable Cameron lead I think throughout the parliament.
I like this, but the satisfaction ratings barely shifted from 2010 - unlike the result. The gaps in satisfaction rating and overall result also don't really match in 1979, 92, or 05. Fair point about 92 the gap 'predicting' the polling error though.
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
I suppose one could project that if one thought that Corbyn's ratings would be even worse than Osborne's if/when they were both party leaders. That's not wholly fanciful, I think.
However I think a better view is that OsCon would comfortably beat CorLab but not by a landslide. MayCon would do a lot better than OsCon imo.
Both this and Mike's figures are at final polls (i.e. when everyone has made up their minds). Does it make much difference if you go back 1/3/6 months?
6 months before the election, I think the gap between Dave and Ed was probably even bigger.
In the mid-term of the parliament, I think Miliband's "satisfaction" ratings were often ahead of Cameron's, but the "best PM" question always showed a comfortable Cameron lead I think throughout the parliament.
Yes, tricky thing is that (without hindsight) we need to know which ratings to look at. Best PM? Good/bad job etc.
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
I suppose one could project that if one thought that Corbyn's ratings would be even worse than Osborne's if/when they were both party leaders. That's not wholly fanciful, I think.
However I think a better view is that OsCon would comfortably beat CorLab but not by a landslide. MayCon would do a lot better than OsCon imo.
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
Unless we are talking about Islamist Extremists coming onto campus to spread their warped views or views held by Islamist dominated societies, then they turn a blind eye...
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Btw, by this line of thinking Boris is the Conservatives' best choice by miles, no?
Cripes...imagine a GE campaign of Boris vs Corbyn, all the scandals and previous comments, they would have to have special bonus editions of the newspapers to cover all the material....
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
My 15 year old son has been following this sort of development with increasing dismay (he's pretty militant on free speech) to the extent that he is now moving away from a medical career through university and considering joining the forces and doing it there. I am not sure how he figures he will be able to say what he wants more that way!
Btw, by this line of thinking Boris is the Conservatives' best choice by miles, no?
Cripes...imagine a GE campaign of Boris vs Corbyn, all the scandals and previous comments, they would have to have special bonus editions of the newspapers to cover all the material....
Might have to put a few bob on Prime Minister Tim Farron....
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
My 15 year old son has been following this sort of development with increasing dismay (he's pretty militant on free speech) to the extent that he is now moving away from a medical career through university and considering joining the forces and doing it there. I am not sure how he figures he will be able to say what he wants more that way!
You can say quite a bit more when you are armed.....
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
My 15 year old son has been following this sort of development with increasing dismay (he's pretty militant on free speech) to the extent that he is now moving away from a medical career through university and considering joining the forces and doing it there. I am not sure how he figures he will be able to say what he wants more that way!
I can see that actually. If you are going to have your freedom restricted you may as well join the army where the restriction is up-front and absolute rather than insidious. Maybe.
Olly Martins, Labour PCC for Bedfordshire, has been reselected. The trigger ballot process concluded today and he secured the backing of the majority of CLPs and affiliates in the area.
Luton South and Luton North CLPs voted against his re-selection but the Bedfordshire CLPs outside Luton backed him.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
What on earth is going on with Leicester, I keep saying the bubble will burst soon.
The overall quality of the Premier league this season is very poor, or rather the gap between the big teams and the rest isn't there.
There is some stat I saw that said no team who was top at Christmas has ever finished outside of the top 4. Leicester in Champions League next season....
What on earth is going on with Leicester, I keep saying the bubble will burst soon.
The overall quality of the Premier league this season is very poor, or rather the gap between the big teams and the rest isn't there.
There is some stat I saw that said no team who was top at Christmas has ever finished outside of the top 4. Leicester in Champions League next season....
Yes I saw that, they're showing no sign of faltering although the Vardy bubble has burst
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
What on earth is going on with Leicester, I keep saying the bubble will burst soon.
The overall quality of the Premier league this season is very poor, or rather the gap between the big teams and the rest isn't there.
There is some stat I saw that said no team who was top at Christmas has ever finished outside of the top 4. Leicester in Champions League next season....
Yes I saw that, they're showing no sign of faltering although the Vardy bubble has burst
That has to be the biggest fear for Leicester fans, if Vardy or Mahrez gets injured, there is no depth to their squad e.g. Ulloa is at best a good Championship player, definitely not a top Premier League striker.
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
My 15 year old son has been following this sort of development with increasing dismay (he's pretty militant on free speech) to the extent that he is now moving away from a medical career through university and considering joining the forces and doing it there. I am not sure how he figures he will be able to say what he wants more that way!
I can see that actually. If you are going to have your freedom restricted you may as well join the army where the restriction is up-front and absolute rather than insidious. Maybe.
As a soldier you can say what you like, as long as you obey lawful orders and don't tell the RSM what you really think of him you won't have too many problems. Oh, and when you tell an officer, "Don't be a C***" always remember to say, "Sir".
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
FPT I have a mate who is a damp expert working for insurance companies. He has been passionately against cavity wall insulation for precisely the reasons you outlined. The flats where I live had this done recently, my bit wasn't done as I refused consent.
What on earth is going on with Leicester, I keep saying the bubble will burst soon.
The overall quality of the Premier league this season is very poor, or rather the gap between the big teams and the rest isn't there.
There is some stat I saw that said no team who was top at Christmas has ever finished outside of the top 4. Leicester in Champions League next season....
Yes I saw that, they're showing no sign of faltering although the Vardy bubble has burst
That has to be the biggest fear for Leicester fans, if Vardy or Mahrez gets injured, there is no depth to their squad e.g. Ulloa is at best a good Championship player, definitely not a top Premier League striker.
I thought for a moment I was on a football forum for a moment and was waiting for heaps of abuse for my Vardy claim, football fans in the main don't do irony. But your point is correct, it's a squad thing after Christmas.
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
I doubt it'd be a landslide but i wouldn't rule it out against Corbyn. I also think any Labour leader with such a strong left-wing agenda will struggle to win.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
The rumour Indigo has heard from his mother is, I think, based on a story in the Daily Mail extrapolating from what Amber Rudd said about the Paris agreement. Probably not worth worrying about but with Cameron and a doris like Rudd in change anything is possible. Let's face it the energy policy they have been running so far doesn't make too much sense, so further idiocies are not beyond imagination.
P.S. You asked: my email is HurstLlama at gmail dot com
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
I doubt it'd be a landslide but i wouldn't rule it out against Corbyn. I also think any Labour leader with such a strong left-wing agenda will struggle to win.
I'd like to know where those predictions were made?
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
I think some are presuming his opponent's ratings will be even worse, but there is no guarantee of that even with Corbyn leading Labour, and of course he may not be at the time.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
On topic (I know, but I do do it occasionally), when the polling companies ask the leader satisfaction question do they then submit the results to all the same weighting methods as the voting intention?
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
The quote is from someone with a vested interest in scrapping them, it seems
He said: “Gas cookers will be phased out, probably as soon as possible.
“I suspect manufacturers will simply stop making them.”
Pardew was the [MODERATED] eejit that began the undermining of CAFC. We now get beaten by minnows such as Burnley and are owned by a feckin' Belgian...!
Those EXPERTS in full on when Ranieri was appointed:
Gary Lineker "Claudio Ranieri? Really? Ranieri is clearly experienced, but this is an uninspired choice by Leicester."
Robbie Savage "Ranieri, good manager but for me not Leicester."
Harry Redknapp "Ranieri is a nice guy, but he's done well to get the Leicester job."
To be fair, I think Ranieri was lucky to get the job - but he's done very well. Life - and sport - is all about taking your chances when they come.
I think we also have to remember just how well Leicester finished last season under the bonkers Pearson. They had an amazing record in the last 10 or so games.
And on the flip side, Chelsea had a terrible end, and their form has just continued on into this season.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Heating with gas is incredibly efficient. It's a much better idea than using a power station to produce electricity, then sending the electricity over wires, and then passing the electricity through something to generate heat through electrical resistance.
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
I think some are presuming his opponent's ratings will be even worse, but there is no guarantee of that even with Corbyn leading Labour, and of course he may not be at the time.
It might not be Osbo. He might prefer to continue his grip on the treasury and continue his Reich
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
Fair comment, but what percentage of homes do use electric heating? A very small one I think.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
The quote is from someone with a vested interest in scrapping them, it seems
He said: “Gas cookers will be phased out, probably as soon as possible.
“I suspect manufacturers will simply stop making them.”
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
Fair comment, but what percentage of homes do use electric heating? A very small one I think.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
We are all electric on the Spanish coast with no gas despite an underground pipeline laid a few hundred metres from our [very rural] home. To be fair despite electricity here being the one thing more expensive than the UK - we never need to use our heaters except for 2/3 months in the winter evenings. The heatwave currently affecting the UK would be considered a bit of a cold snap here.
If the leader satisfaction ratings are crucial in determining the outcome of the GE then Labour are in deeper trouble than I had ever thought. The Labour leader has already defined himself in the public mind. Without any Conservative propaganda he has formed an image of an outdated 80s leftie who speaks to and for his core supporters and no-one else. If he remains in place and the Conservatives have held back ammunition of his past statements then the poll ratings will plumb new depths. The ratings published today of views in Wales are dire. Unless Planet Earth Labour can take a grip on the party then there is no opposition worth its name. That is good news for the Conservatives. It is not good news for the country.
I like this, but the satisfaction ratings barely shifted from 2010 - unlike the result.
What do you mean "unlike the result"? The vote shares were very similar in 2015 compared to 2010.
Ah yes, I'd forgotten that. Was blinded by the seat change. Wonder what the leadership ratings of Salmond in 2010 vs Sturgeon in 2015 (in Scotland only) were? Did they change substantially? Likewise with Brown vs EdM.
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
No one is predicting a landslide but against a Corbyn led party or a party recovering from his legacy he starts favourite, against an Umunna, Jarvis or Burnham leadership that may not have been the case
If the leader satisfaction ratings are crucial in determining the outcome of the GE then Labour are in deeper trouble than I had ever thought. The Labour leader has already defined himself in the public mind. Without any Conservative propaganda he has formed an image of an outdated 80s leftie who speaks to and for his core supporters and no-one else. If he remains in place and the Conservatives have held back ammunition of his past statements then the poll ratings will plumb new depths. The ratings published today of views in Wales are dire. Unless Planet Earth Labour can take a grip on the party then there is no opposition worth its name. That is good news for the Conservatives. It is not good news for the country.
That Welsh poll was very interesting - if that trend continues though Corbyn could be finished well before the next GE. However, the left-wing tone of the Labour Party could easily survive him and I cannot see a 'cuddly' socialist option swinging back those Midlands marginals any time soon. The header theory is interesting but I don't think it tells the whole story of why Labour lost. I have always thought that age /regional / turnout propensity played a significant role last time.
So which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Is a leader more popular than his opponent because his party is more popular or is it the other way around?
I don't find it surprising that the winning leader is pretty much always more popular than his opponent but it seems a little meaningless in itself. If PM Osborne is still providing a jobs miracle, rising real wages, zero inflation, a reducing deficit (hopefully to zero by then) and generally competent government in 2020 then it is inevitable that he will be more popular than any leader of the Labour party, let alone Corbyn.
Conversely, a Labour party led by Corbyn is bound to be unpopular and lose. It is just inevitable.
Another brewing scandal is that many new-build homes are not exactly meeting the required insulation and other standards ...
(Note, IANAE. But I believe the above is right).
Talking of which, what is this rumour I hear in the distance (ie. from my mother) about gas cookers and/or heating being phased out over the next 15 years. Seems bit odd to build a load of power stations to burn gas, so we can provide electricity to people, so they don't have to burn gas...
Not heard anything about that. I suppose it might be as North Sea gas runs out? In which case will we reopen the coal mines and go back to the good old days of town gas, with British Gas visiting every house to fit new burners?
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
I had a look around, apparently its Paris to blame, also indicates why people are not rushing out to build new gas power stations.
The property world looks set to be facing an enormous upheaval following the climate change deal in Paris which could see the end of cooking and heating with gas in the UK.
Gas hobs, cookers, fires and boilers could all be phased out within 15 years, with households dumping appliances.
All gas-fired power stations must also close by the mid-2030s, unless they manage to remove CO2 from their emissions.
Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
Fair comment, but what percentage of homes do use electric heating? A very small one I think.
Jim Waterson Take the inexplicably popular quiz that Labour's soft left can't stop tweeting about: https://t.co/9ey8T2FWbC
Apparently, I am...
"You are Progress. You can’t admit it in polite company – or on Facebook – but you secretly lust for the return of Tony. Every time you switch on the TV and see Jeremy Corbyn you just hanker for the sweet caress of Peter Mandelson. You are the third way. You are three election victories in a row."
And with that I need to take a shower, as I feel rather grubby...
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
Corbyn vs Osborne = Alien vs Predator.
I'm puzzled by the hostility to Osborne - always seen him as part of a very successful double act with Cameron.
"I do not like you, Dr. Fell".
As so often, Alistair Meeks hits the nail on the head, when he says Osbourne gives the impression he enjoys pulling wings off flies.
I'm hostile to him because as a Chancellor he's been a total failure. I'm not particularly bothered about fly pulling habits or Oxford dining clubs, unless they are pertinent to his lack of progress as a Chancellor.
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
Corbyn vs Osborne = Alien vs Predator.
I'm puzzled by the hostility to Osborne - always seen him as part of a very successful double act with Cameron.
"I do not like you, Dr. Fell".
As so often, Alistair Meeks hits the nail on the head, when he says Osbourne gives the impression he enjoys pulling wings off flies.
Still not seeing it - sounds just like rather nasty prejudice to say things like that about pretty much anyone. I agree his polling is poor and I doubt if he will become PM but he seems to me to be niehter more or less unpleasant than most folk.
"Why can't we declare open seasons on Tories? I'd be the first one out there with a gun, and I know who would be the first target. Bloody Osborne."
This followed someone discussing badgers being culled, so clearly tensions were high, but curious that Osborne was listed as first target even so, what is that issue to do with him?
"Why can't we declare open seasons on Tories? I'd be the first one out there with a gun, and I know who would be the first target. Bloody Osborne."
This followed someone discussing badgers being culled, so clearly tensions were high, but curious that Osborne was listed as first target even so, what is that issue to do with him?
It's the kind of rhetoric many left-wingers use on Twitter about the Tories generally - mostly about bitterness, envy and that classic British lefty hatred of all things British. I think anyone who can even write anything like that is deeply troubled. But to be fair it's not so far removed from some of the earlier comments on this thread.
"Why can't we declare open seasons on Tories? I'd be the first one out there with a gun, and I know who would be the first target. Bloody Osborne."
This followed someone discussing badgers being culled, so clearly tensions were high, but curious that Osborne was listed as first target even so, what is that issue to do with him?
It's the kind of rhetoric many left-wingers use on Twitter about the Tories generally - mostly about bitterness, envy and that classic British lefty hatred of all things British. I think anyone who can even write anything like that is deeply troubled. But to be fair it's not so far removed from some of the earlier comments on this thread.
Right wingers are not immune to awful slurs on opponents of course, though I would clarify this comment was spoken to me. The same person once opined that they supported human rights, just not for muslims, though I think that was just inelegantly expressing the view they wanted to be able to kick out people like Abu Hamza easier. Oh, and circulated a petition to me calling on the queen to remove Cameron as PM shortly after the GE, for reasons too stupid for me to remember but something to do with lack of support.
"Why can't we declare open seasons on Tories? I'd be the first one out there with a gun, and I know who would be the first target. Bloody Osborne."
This followed someone discussing badgers being culled, so clearly tensions were high, but curious that Osborne was listed as first target even so, what is that issue to do with him?
It's the kind of rhetoric many left-wingers use on Twitter about the Tories generally - mostly about bitterness, envy and that classic British lefty hatred of all things British. I think anyone who can even write anything like that is deeply troubled. But to be fair it's not so far removed from some of the earlier comments on this thread.
Right wingers are not immune to awful slurs on opponents of course, though I would clarify this comment was spoken to me. The same person once opined that they supported human rights, just not for muslims, though I think that was just inelegantly expressing the view they wanted to be able to kick out people like Abu Hamza easier. Oh, and circulated a petition to me calling on the queen to remove Cameron as PM shortly after the GE, for reasons too stupid for me to remember but something to do with lack of support.
Ah, family Xmas time, cannot beat it.
Can you reference any 'let's shoot a socialist' quotes? I've never heard anything like that.
f you compare the leader satisfaction ratings to the actual vote shares it seems like its not so much that it's more accurate than the VI, as that it was lucky enough to get its two major "errors" the right way - by satisfaction Callahan/Thatcher should have been virtually a tie, but Thatcher won comfortably, and similarly Major/Kinnock should actually have been a much more comfortable victory than it actually was.
Comments
It looks a lot like they will repeat the same trick... surely there's no way back for Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/601115131041423361
Which is why it's so baffling that people are projecting an Osborne-led Tory party to win a landslide when he has such terrible personal ratings.
In the mid-term of the parliament, I think Miliband's "satisfaction" ratings were often ahead of Cameron's, but the "best PM" question always showed a comfortable Cameron lead I think throughout the parliament.
However I think a better view is that OsCon would comfortably beat CorLab but not by a landslide. MayCon would do a lot better than OsCon imo.
"British universities have become too politically correct and are stifling free speech by banning anything that causes the least offence to anyone, a group of leading academics warns on Saturday.
A whole generation of students is being denied the “intellectual challenge of debating conflicting views” because self-censorship is turning campuses into over-sanitised “safe spaces”, they say."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/12059161/Politically-correct-universities-are-killing-free-speech.html
Could Gus be following Jose to the job centre?
Luton South and Luton North CLPs voted against his re-selection but the Bedfordshire CLPs outside Luton backed him.
If I'm right about the reason, couldn't the gas distribution network be supplied with LNG supplies once North Sea gas runs out?
There is some stat I saw that said no team who was top at Christmas has ever finished outside of the top 4. Leicester in Champions League next season....
http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/huge-change-facing-property-world-as-gas-looks-set-to-be-phased-out/ Sounds like a vote winner.
I have a mate who is a damp expert working for insurance companies.
He has been passionately against cavity wall insulation for precisely the reasons you outlined.
The flats where I live had this done recently, my bit wasn't done as I refused consent.
P.S. You asked: my email is HurstLlama at gmail dot com
Those EXPERTS in full on when Ranieri was appointed:
Gary Lineker "Claudio Ranieri? Really? Ranieri is clearly experienced, but this is an uninspired choice by Leicester."
Robbie Savage "Ranieri, good manager but for me not Leicester."
Harry Redknapp "Ranieri is a nice guy, but he's done well to get the Leicester job."
Maybe a perfect candidate for Bedfordshire Lib-Dhimmies...?
his opponent's ratings will be even worse, but there is no guarantee of that even with Corbyn leading Labour, and of course he may not be at the time.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
The quote is from someone with a vested interest in scrapping them, it seems
He said: “Gas cookers will be phased out, probably as soon as possible.
“I suspect manufacturers will simply stop making them.”
Oh, they will, will they?
:paĺace-spanner:
And on the flip side, Chelsea had a terrible end, and their form has just continued on into this season.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
But that's just my view.
Fair comment, but what percentage of homes do use electric heating? A very small one I think.
He said: “Gas cookers will be phased out, probably as soon as possible.
“I suspect manufacturers will simply stop making them.”
Oh, they will, will they?
Ah well.
1.9 million as of 2011:
http://tinyurl.com/pddzy8n
http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/huge-change-facing-property-world-as-gas-looks-set-to-be-phased-out/ Sounds like a vote winner.
That'd be pretty hard for the UK. It sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.
It does indeed, Mr. Felix, but such stupidity is not beyond the reach of our politicians - see the Climate Change Act as a starter for ten. So who knows they may yet go for it, after all I keep reading that insulating my home will reduce the amount of electricity I use.
Given that I heat the place with gas and the only electricity involved is in running the pump for a few hours each day for a couple of months each year, I have to wonder about the intellectual capacity of the people who come out with such guff.
Some people do heat their homes with electric power, perhaps they are who the advice is aimed at?
We are all electric on the Spanish coast with no gas despite an underground pipeline laid a few hundred metres from our [very rural] home. To be fair despite electricity here being the one thing more expensive than the UK - we never need to use our heaters except for 2/3 months in the winter evenings. The heatwave currently affecting the UK would be considered a bit of a cold snap here.
Take the inexplicably popular quiz that Labour's soft left can't stop tweeting about: https://t.co/9ey8T2FWbC
I don't find it surprising that the winning leader is pretty much always more popular than his opponent but it seems a little meaningless in itself. If PM Osborne is still providing a jobs miracle, rising real wages, zero inflation, a reducing deficit (hopefully to zero by then) and generally competent government in 2020 then it is inevitable that he will be more popular than any leader of the Labour party, let alone Corbyn.
Conversely, a Labour party led by Corbyn is bound to be unpopular and lose. It is just inevitable.
Page 46, looks like about 10%:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/345141/uk_housing_fact_file_2013.pdf
"You are Progress. You can’t admit it in polite company – or on Facebook – but you secretly lust for the return of Tony. Every time you switch on the TV and see Jeremy Corbyn you just hanker for the sweet caress of Peter Mandelson. You are the third way. You are three election victories in a row."
And with that I need to take a shower, as I feel rather grubby...
As so often, Alistair Meeks hits the nail on the head, when he says Osbourne gives the impression he enjoys pulling wings off flies.
I'm Labour First, but I'd guessed that anyway,
"Why can't we declare open seasons on Tories? I'd be the first one out there with a gun, and I know who would be the first target. Bloody Osborne."
This followed someone discussing badgers being culled, so clearly tensions were high, but curious that Osborne was listed as first target even so, what is that issue to do with him?
Ah, family Xmas time, cannot beat it.
'Lord Janner has died and so have his secrets. Justice is the loser'