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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015
Gogarth (Con defence) on Conwy
Result: Conservative 318 (42% +12%), Labour 187 (25% -3%), Plaid Cymru 167 (22% +10%), Liberal Democrat 49 (7%), Independent 28 (4% -26%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 131 (17%) on a swing of 7.5% from Labour to Conservative
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Thanks (Harry, I assume?)
Gogarth looks an interesting result on the Labour to Conservative swing, except as is often the case with locals, the lack of a candidate (independent in this case) skewed matters.
The No Description candidate in Hertford Heath is in fact the Conservative candidate but with no description due to a nomination error .
Similarly as it seems to be Xmas , Darren Allanson , the no description candidate in Ryedale Derwent is in fact the Lib Dem candidate also with no party description due to a nomination error .
This Lucy Allan lady deserves all she gets for those voicemail messages, given her background.
She wouldn't get a job in the HR dept of any reputable company - why did the tory party take her on?
Again, roughly a 5.5% swing from Lab to Con.
I'm looking at Brent to see Labour accumulate more pointless votes. They did it in West Ham the other week, whilst they were losing vote share almost everywhere else.
My memory is not that long, were the Lib Alliance MPs a precursor to the Liberal Democrats?
It looks as if it just didn't add up - literally ANYONE who had taken the trouble to use their own calculator to manually check the calculation (just simple adding and subtracting) would have spotted it.
Unbelievable.
http://www.theguardian.com/law/2015/dec/17/revealed-divorce-software-error-to-hit-thousands-of-settlements
You know I could almost feel sorry for him if he wasn't such a piece of vile, hypocritical, unlikeable, putrid piece of Tory pondlife.
The thing is about this current crop of Tories- with the fracking, the environmental hooliganism, the bullying of the BBC and the House of Lords- they know they are a bunch of self serving shytebags and they don't care. You have to admire them for that I guess. Go Tories- they don't believe in anything other than making money. The political equivalent of Millwall fans.
(Or is it notoriously complex? I've never done it.)
HYUFD said:
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'If Osborne stands he will probably get it, Chancellors normally succeed the PM in power, against a Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis or even Andy Burnham he may have had problems at the election, against Corbyn and probably Hilary Benn he should win one term .'
It is not accurate to say that ' Chancellors normally succeed the PM in power'.. Since World War 2 there have been three examples of the Chancellor moving next door to No 10 - Macmillan - Major - and Brown. On three other occasions the PM was succeeded by his Foreign Secretary - Eden - Home - and Callaghan (also a former Chancellor). Macmillan and Major were not toxic at the time and went on to win an election. Brown had become toxic and lost. Osborne is probably at least as toxic as Brown.I also believe that Hilary Benn would prove a far more formidable opponent to him than Burnham.- and indeed more so than Howard proved to be against Blair in 2005
Gordon Brown was skin crawlingly unlikeable but his heart was in a good place--Osborne has all that insipid lack of charisma oozing from him, but he strikes me as an unpleasant and genuinely nasty specimen to boot.
Incidentally I remember an old fun poll that suggested that Lib Dems voters were the most keen on sci-fi. I can't imagine how much it must hurt. The force is clearly still not with them.
Forget all policies - just watching and listening to Benn he sounds authoritative and has the necessary gravitas.
He's way ahead of Umunna, Burnham and Corbyn in this respect.
The number 1 option for Lab would be Johnson by a clear margin but Benn is a strong PM candidate.
I think Jarvis might be a future winner. Umunna doesn't seem like a serious politician to me.
As a lefty, I am jealous. I wish Osborne was on our side. We need people like him, especially at this time...... especially at this time.
Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband destroyed the Labour party through their stupid egos and ambition- both were seriously unsuited for leadership. I kind of forgive Gordon Brown, just...but Ed Miliband, I just hope that I never have to see him do anything of note again such is the contempt I hold for him.
The Labour party is a busted flush.
Sure, when his face was chubbier, he looked like the archetype of a "toff". But now, for some reason a thinner face makes him look at Bond villain-levels of evil.
But as has been demonstrated over recent months, nothing said by NPxMP can be taken at face value.
But, re Osborne- I actually get him a bit. More than Cameron who, although charismatic, I find increasingly shallow and obnoxious.
Why did he have that moment of madness.
I doubt that a century hence, "I once met someone who voted for Anthony Blair" will be as good.
Con 269
LDem 101
UKIP 70
Lab 56
Green 21
That said, I don't think I ever managed to get my full way through a cartoon from start to finish ever- except Bambi which I was dragged too. I also never believed in God, always found the concept of praying stupid and so forth. I'm just a cynical so and so, and really cannot get into the flow of enjoying this kind of stuff. My loss almost certainly.
Stourport turnout 16.6% over half of which were postal votes
But it's the difference between being a kids movie and a family movie, or simply a good kids movie. The latter two provide enough adult level drama or themes to keep adults entertained without boring the kids, who may not even notice or care about the things the adults are enjoying.
I don't know of any kids TV shows which would work for adults as well, except I suppose The Simpsons and Futurama, that sort of thing (but nothing I can think of for very young kids), but the balance with movies tends to be pretty decent, with a lot of kid focused options that still appeal to adults.
Personally my issue is I quite like a lot of animated films, and while adults are supposed to enjoy them, I still worry about getting odd looks showing up as a single, shadily bearded late 20s man - a colleague of mine had a similar problem where they wanted to see a new release when their young niece was visiting, but the child didn't want to see it. Inside Out was getting potential oscar buzz, so I figured it was acceptable.
I do wonder if Greg Clarke has Majorish like ability - came across very well on QT last week...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3365020/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-secret-love-child-IMF-chief-married-multi-millionaire-art-heiress.html
Blow me down....
Con 763 IHC 725 others to follow
Con 763 IHC 725 Lab 581 UKIP 547 Green 42
https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/677628206258782209
Lab 931
LDem 417
Con 255
Green 102
UKIP 38
Good night.
Gladstone was still leading the Liberals into the 1892 election. Plenty of Gladstone voters would still have been alive in the 1950s, and a few into the 1960s. There are a few folk on this site who would have been politically active then, and will have trudged a few doorsteps... I wonder.
This is tragic because I would love there to be some sensible right wing tory back bench MPs with one or two brain cells between them.
Why cannot right wingers wake up to realise how thick their (our) cheerleaders are?
Cameron is currently in Brussels trying to obtain something that the other 27 states wish to deny him. They are willing to go thru the night...
..but the last time that happened in 2011, Cameron walked out
So if it does go ka-ka later tonight, don't be surprised...
Re- Benn I would expect him to do rather better than Howard who managed a 3% Lab to Con swing in 2005.