politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes
Via @robfordmancs . Net MORI satisfaction ratings after 3 months
Foot -21
Kinnock + 13
Smith + 12
Blair +27
Brown + 18
Ed M + 1
Corbyn -17
Read the full story here
Comments
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-december-political-poll/
I am still be convinced the polling companies really have an idea about how they messed up and / or have corrected for it. See Dave Gorman's take down of YouGov panel data.
Quite hard to square those two - unless people are assuming that Benn (the only Labour front bencher to have had an impact in the past month) will take over in the medium term and are thinking that way. Though I doubt it.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/22/explaining-the-ed-miliband-polling-paradox/
US officials believe "corruption money" may have been transited through the frozen accounts, the ministry said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35119240
They say we get the govt we deserve, we'll have to just suck it up.
At any one time there are thousands of people supposedly governing, what on earth are all these people doing? They could be nurses, teachers, dinner ladies, something we all need. The leaders, supposedly the best of the bunch, all have minus ratings, that says everything about the layers of dross underneath.
All we're seeing in these numbers is the late stages of the decline of the two party political system.
You seem to want to keep moaning about the country going to shit. It isn't true, but if it makes you feel better, go right ahead.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2101443/Prince-Charles-admits-Burnley-FC-Fan.html
Basically, the only person to be consistently 'satisfactory' was Blair.
Why ditch the EU and all the mythos built up in the books over 30 years, freeing the plot up to be absolutely anything it wanted to be, to go in any direction, then just do a remake.
They should have just done the Thrawn trilogy. Not just because it would have been amazing but because, to a great extent, those books saved Star Wars.
This is the whole population.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=88&view=wide
There's clearly a thread in 'how to read these stats' somewhere.
And most confusingly, they attract a fawning % of the electorate that think they can do no wrong. Go to a Ukip meeting, you'll see what I mean.
For the first three points, Cameron will get warm words and agreement - there's no real argument anyway.
For the fourth, the four year wait, they will say not yet ... but they will give warm words and a promise of possible changes in the future. Cameron claims a great victory.
The only EU fans I know though had already written this movie off however, so to a large extent I don't think there was a way to please them all.
Unless they do make a Thrawn movie, as one of the only things I know about the EU is how apparently awesome the Grand Admiral is supposed to be (sounds a bit like fanfiction levels of awesome really).
Perhaps if the entryists are starting to lose interest a bit or even starting to turn against Corbyn, its not beyond the question that the leadership will eventually want to sideline the 3 quidders and cling tighter to the proper hard left, weakening their own base. I don't think the Syria stance is a specific cause, there is a lot of sympathy for that, I just think the attritional nature of Labour politics atm may takes its toll - many 3 quidders are a soft anti-austerity left rather than hardcore warriors.
There's really two ways this could go, Episode 8 could offer a brand new story taking us in new directions. Or he could remake Empire Strikes Back.
I hate to say this. But right now, I would not bet any money at any price against an Episode 5 remake.
I do wonder if they will use EU characters, Thrawn would be an excellent one to use as would Mara Jade but the time jump wouldn't really allow that, although they could redo the Thrawn backstory, Mara Jade would be a namecheck only, I gave up on the EU pretty much as soon as I started, loved the Thrawn trilogy but subsequent books weren't that good and I never went back.
Employment is booming, youth employment or training is 85.8%. The NHS is given bundles of cash, the police left untouched. Defence at 2% guaranteed IIRC. And that's before the other ring-fenced budgets.
What manna are Corbynistas yearning for?
I can understand fiscal hawks thinking George is being a trifle generous [but not in their own pet hobbies], but what's Labour's beef here bar endless crying for more? As ever?
I doubt I will ever trust a poll again until, I can see some correlation between the polls and actual results.
And of course Abrams is not directing the next one, although I don't know if he is to be a sort of guiding producer of 8 and 9.
Honestly, I'm worried about all these side story movies that will be made. They could vary wildly in quality, whereas I feel in present hands the main movies will at the least be serviceably enjoyable.
If economists like Charles Goodhart are right and the world really is running out of workers, the next few years will see the rich poor gap narrow, perhaps dramatically.
The side movies will likely be Fan Service. The first one is called Rogue One which I suspect is at least a play to the endless demands of EU fans for a Rogue Squadron movie (think it was a stand alone book as well as a series of games)
It's directed by Gareth Edwards which is an... interesting choice. Again indicative of Fan Service if nothing else.
' but Labour brand seems to be able to stagger on despite the terrible leaders.'
Free handouts of other people's money will always be popular.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/34670192
Juande Ramos 10/3
Guardiola 5/1
Ancelotti 7/1
Hiddink 7/1
Capello 10/1
Rodgers 33/1
Moyes 33/1
Personally, the unease I had with austerity was not fiscal, more that it encouraged a bad mindset in approaching the cuts - stable governments like in the UK have a proper chance to enact structural reform (re-arranging things in a way you want, whilst saving money slowly) rather than just austerity (slash at something and save the money a bit quicker, but you will probably end up having to re-instate some of what you removed at a future date). The latter is a necessary evil to get finances under control quickly, the former is what you should aspire to on any medium-term project if you actually value public services at all. The rhetoric has been too narrowly focussed on the latter and the message on valuing public services is therefore a poor one.
Mourinho will have a very good Christmas with the payoff he'll be getting - rumour is $50m for three and a half years left of four in the contract.
Wasn't one of the last teams to beat Mourinho's Chelsea managed by Ranieri[sp], who lost his job as Chelsea manager to Mourinho, the first time, when the Russian took over?
Alas that Mourinho is gone and Corbyn remains.
Currently for my business I need to submit an annual return 9 months after the end of the financial year. That is 21 months after the start of the year and 18 months after the end of the first quarter.
Quite frankly any business that has no clue how its done after the first quarter until 18 months later is either very badly managed or has more money than sense. I work out my profit and loss on a monthly basis so that I can spot any problems and deal with them rather than realise a problem 21 months down the line.
For me what matters is neither the timing nor the frequency but the implementation. I have no problem reporting my payroll info in real time as the implementation has been done well. I have no problem reporting my VAT submissions quarterly. If quarterly returns can be made simpler than annual returns are currently then I fail to see the problem. I make 26 submissions a year for payroll and it is literally no hassle whatsoever.
Goal boom
Lost matches re-run
Like powers,new strikers won't be used
BBC blamed re losses
The Tories and their cheerleaders are my kind of skum - fearless and inventive.
Who was it who led to the courts determining that using the Parliament Act in order to curb the Lords powers is perfectly legitimate?
What goes around comes around. The Tories are perfectly entitled to neuter the Lords as another party has spent the better part of a century doing. Your crocodile tears over this will convince nobody.
Licences*. It only takes an S (as per practice) when used as a verb.
Labour - wishful thinking, someone else will pay my way
Tory (even when not toxic and contaminated with the greed meme) - personal responsibility and hard work
LibDem - none of the above.
None of the above has proven itself useless outside of government and pretty useless inside government. Tories are called upon when things are messed up in order to fix them. Labour - regardless of serial economic mismanagement - will always be a nice day dream.