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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads
This morning we’ve got the EU referendum phone polls for two months and as can be seen in the table, they have numbers which are totally out of line with with all the online surveys.
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http://www.comres.co.uk/eu-referendum-all-still-to-play-for-by-not-neck-and-neck/
Winston McKenzie has joined the English Democrats, some say he is the most influential Black English political figure today.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWWFL6_XAAAKWsU.jpg:large
OT: Can anyone point me towards an online video archive of Sky News Channel newspaper reviews. I think I heard a comment from one of the reviewers last night that I want to check.
I do not have paid-for Sky.
Thanks
#PMQs
Winston vs Oink-A-Lot vs Lib Dems match bet maybe
She's already borrowed £25k and decided it was a waste of time and wants to have a career change where she can borrow some more money and then decide at the end of it whether she wants another career change.
http://labourlist.org/2015/12/what-does-labour-stand-for-when-it-is-no-longer-the-party-of-the-working-class/
Like you, I can go back half a century to when the Labour party was a different beast.
There was a sort of unwritten law that the middle class intellectuals (along with a few of the proper working class) would run the party for the benefit of the working classes. What has changed?
A much larger middle class, and from that has evolved a group of people who are convinced they know best.
Old Labour were patriotic and proud of their country (many had fought in the war) and their aim was equality of opportunity.
But Jezza is one of these nouveau, know-it-alls. The important things are Marxism (of sorts) with an emphasis on diversity, and doing down the Dastardly Septics, who along with old-fashioned patriots are responsible for all the ills of the world.
They are the shouty, media types whose views are so self-evidently correct, they must have been born to rule. Those with differing opinions must be marginalised or know their place.
Posh rules OK.
Snap PMQs Verdict: A comfortable win for Corbyn. It is unusual for Labour to lose on health at PMQs, but Corbyn was well beyond competent. His questions were sharp and relevant, he used humour well and he responded graciously to a jibe from Cameron about his supposedly not being able to wish people Happy Christmas. Cameron does have answers on the NHS, although his figures for the increasing volume of NHS activity are really just a recognition of growth (the volume of NHS activity is almost always going up), Corbyn is right about the problems with the social care precept, and Cameron’s repeated attempts to change the subject, onto unemployment, came across as symptomatic of weakness, not strength.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/dec/16/john-major-says-flirting-with-leaving-the-eu-very-dangerous-politics-live#block-5671558be4b0e9280677472f
Didn't see it that way myself - thought score-draw, or even Cameron ahead....
Snap PMQs Verdict: A comfortable win for Corbyn. It is unusual for Labour to lose on health at PMQs, but Corbyn was well beyond competent. His questions were sharp and relevant, he used humour well and he responded graciously to a jibe from Cameron about his supposedly not being able to wish people Happy Christmas. Cameron does have answers on the NHS, although his figures for the increasing volume of NHS activity are really just a recognition of growth (the volume of NHS activity is almost always going up), Corbyn is right about the problems with the social care precept, and Cameron’s repeated attempts to change the subject, onto unemployment, came across as symptomatic of weakness, not strength.
As a dog person I find it slightly surreal that one can buy a dog just like a kettle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRcIkMMWWGw
A tremendous amount of planning goes into winter preparedness. The vast, vast majority of people are still being seen, treated and shown the door within 4 hours of arriving at A&E despite historic levels of demand.
Unless you think the answer is to build and recruit extra hospitals, nurses, doctors and GPs to only operate in the winter, we are always going to have to put measures in place and you can't stop respiratory illnesses in the elderly. The only solutions are to try and make the system more slick, and commissioners are throwing the kitchen sink at it.... but if you are going to slice and dice Social Care of course you are going to have delayed discharges (of which there are also record numbers).
Delayed discharges equals full hospitals equals queuing ambulances equals people waiting hours after a 999 call.
Of course if the NHS was really as dire as PB Tories say, the vulnerable elderly wouldn't be around to be admitted - and that would take the edge off winter....
I'm increasing noticing at PMQs that one can't assume they're Labour MPs. Ranil Jayawardena was very good - Tory for Hants NE. Very media friendly and eloquent.
When this cannot be found, the patients are classed as a delayed discharge. The number of delays has now reached the highest level since record-keeping began in 2010. Reports suggest some hospitals may have a fifth of their beds taken up by patients who should not be there."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35028372
So why do Labour continually bang on about a health service in crisis?
(Disclaimer: he's a friend of mine, so I'm totally biased.)
Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove)
Shailesh Vara (Cambridgeshire NW)
Suella Fernandes (Fareham)
Rehman Christie (Gillingham)
Ranil Jayawardena (Hampshire NE)
Alan Mak (Havant)
Helen Grant (Maidestone)
Alok Sharma (Reading W)
Rishi Sunak (Richomonds, York)
Seema Louise Ghiassi (South Ribble)
Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne)
Nadhim Zahawi (Stratford)
Sam Gyimah (Surray East)
Nusrat Ghani (Wealden)
Adam Afryie (Windsor)
Priti Patel (Witham)
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green)
Shabana Mahmood (Ladywood)
Khalid Mahmood (Perry Barr)
Yasmine Qureshi (Bolton SE)
Imran Hussain (Bradford East)
Naseem Shah (Bradford West)
Dawn Butler (Brent Central)
Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol West)
Rupa Huq (Ealing Central)
Virendra Sharma (Ealing Southall)
Kate Osamor (Edmonton)
Seema Malhotra (Feltham and Heston)
Diane Abbott (Hackney North)
Tulip Siddiq (Hampstead and Kilburn)
Keith Vaz (Leicester East)
Chi Onwurah (Newcastle Central)
Clive Lewis (Norwich South)
Mark Hendrick (Preston)
Chuka Umunna (Streatham)
Sadiq Khan (Tooting)
David Lammy (Tottenham)
Valerie Vaz (Walsall South)
Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (Ochil)
*Innocent Face*
I guess means that all sorts of things are possible. Trump winning the presidency. Cameron losing the referendum.
Best bit of election night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FREMA0c1bTg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66RuTjG1Vvk
Stuffed cats?
At PMQs Cameron was red-faced, shouty, aggressive, repetitive and didn't answer the questions. Not a good look. Very off putting except to dedicated Tories.
In contrast Corbyn was dignified, respectful and asked detailed pertinent questions.
Dedicated Corbynistas would say Corbyn won hands down, but I suspect uncommitted voters would also say Corbyn came out the more attractive, whether you agree with his policies or not.
There were a lot of dignified Labour losers on election night, both Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander came out with their reputations enhanced.
I cringe at Mellorphant's response to losing in 1997
Even 30yrs on I can't think of him without laughing out loud. He was a feline monster with a significant personality disorder! Stuffed cats?
Fascinating divergence between the methodologies of the polls but bearing in mind what happened at the GE you'd be foolish in disregarding phone polls.
Obviously we have those who are committed LEAVE, those who are committed REMAIN and a number (including many on here) who will vote the way David Cameron tells them so until we know how he will jump it's far from clear where this is going.
PMQs - watched a few minutes. Neither man on top form I thought. If I were the Conservatives, I would suggest turning down the baying and shouting - Cameron always sounds best when he doesn't have to shout to make himself heard. Corbyn is learning and is better now than he was three months ago but he didn't really put Cameron too much on the defensive I thought but there will be other days.
The IPSOS MORI VI poll suggests perhaps a small sign of a "plague on both your houses" and at present neither Party sounds convincing. The Tories are getting bogged down in the detail as they often do but Labour, as they often do, are adept at picking the wrong battles.
None of this matters too much as we move into Christmas but January is always a difficult time for Governments as people go back to work in the bleak midwinter (or early autumn as it seems to be at the moment).
Our admissions are up 10% on a year ago. Yet the plan is to cut several hundred beds in Leicester over the next five years to balance the books.
I think there may be a flaw in that plan!
More generally, I think he was by far the leading senior Labour politician of those standing for re-election in 2015. If he hadn't been defeated in Morley & Outwood he'd probably be Labour leader now - and Labour would be in a massively better place.
* People who prefer the historic counties say "Yes" (or possibly "Yes, it's in the East Riding"). From memory, Richard Tyndall prefers them and may be able to assist you.
* People who prefer the ceremonial counties (like me) say "Yes, it's in the East Riding of Yorkshire".
* People who go by the local authority areas (mostly locals who go off what it says on their council tax form) say "No, it's in its own category"
It had to happen once in his life