"Yes, Rubio has soaked up the Beltway buzz, but no one seems to know what primaries he could actually, you know, win. "
"Rubio had what looked like a perfect political moment. Polls indicate he’s the most electable Republican in a race against Clinton, and pundits and the GOP establishment waited for his seemingly inevitable surge.
And waited. And waited.
Now, instead of talk of a boom for Rubio, we increasingly have Republicans wondering how the guy is getting so consistently out-hustled on the ground. “[U]nderneath the buzz, GOP activists in New Hampshire are grumbling that Rubio has fewer staff members and endorsements than most of his main rivals and has made fewer campaign appearances in the state, where voters are accustomed to face-to-face contact with presidential contenders,” The Boston Globe wrote this month. Iowa Republicans, meanwhile, are likewise annoyed that he doesn’t have much of a presence there.
Rubio’s apparent reluctance to really work the trail is all a bit mystifying. He says he’s missing Senate votes because he’s busy campaigning, and then people in New Hampshire and Iowa get miffed that he’s nowhere to be found. You don’t need a lot of money to barnstorm, which is why it’s usually the preferred tactic of candidates like Rubio, who has lagged behind Cruz and Bush in the fundraising race."
It's details like that, that make me accurate in my forecasts of the GOP race, and my forecasting accuracy so far is close to (if not at) 100%, if you don't believe me ask President Scott Walker and Labour leader Liz Kendall.
If he does win, Cameron will need to rush his retirement before Trump's inauguration in Jan.2017 or else the anglo-american alliance will be terminated, as Trump never forgets an insult. Cameron has but a large bet against Trump becoming president, his job.
If Trump wins that would be amongst the least of his and our worries. Trump and the Republicans mirroring Labour and Corbyn is a terrifying thought.
It might scare you but it wouldn't worry me in the slightest. The days when a US president had much impact on domestic or even political life in the UK are long past. Watching American politics is a bit like watching an old friend slide into dementia - it's very sad but life goes on though with maybe a few minor changes.
I doubt very much that he could be as bad as Bush Junior.
How much did Bush Junior affect life in the UK? Even if you think he was a bad president his policies were pretty much irrelevant to the vast majority of us. Obama was the same and I can't imagine that whoever comes next be any more significant.
The septics will elect who they please but apart from the betting opportunities I can't see why any Brit should give a toss who they pick. Lets face it none of the candidates, from either party, would get a look in over here and most of us don't understand the culture in which they seem to be able to rise to the top.
It's details like that, that make me accurate in my forecasts of the GOP race, and my forecasting accuracy so far is close to (if not at) 100%, if you don't believe me ask President Scott Walker and Labour leader Liz Kendall.
OK, what price will you lay me Rubio for the nomination then, Mr 100%?
Terrorist who attended human rights conferences with Jeremy Corbyn faces jail
Court hears Abdul Raoof Al Shayeb claimed he was a leading human rights activist but was found with guides of how to be a terrorist.
He met with the Labour leader "many times" to discuss the human rights situation in Bahrain and attended the home of Lord Eric Avebury, Vice Chair of the Parliamentary Human Rights Group.
But when police raided his Maida Vale home they discovered a 16GB SD card loaded with military files on "bombs", "missiles" and "destruction" alongside Jihadi exam papers.
The same trend is evident for Catalonian independence too.
Most people care about feeding their families. All else is secondary.
I am less than convinced that mass starvation is on the cards whether we stay or leave and I very much doubt anyone thinks of the ability to feed their families as a consideration. Perhaps you are using a metaphor.
OK. Let me put it another way.
If the government stated that, should In win, everyone in the country would receive £10,000, then In would win 80:20. The same is true in reverse.
The vast majority of people care about their own narrow, short-term financial interests above all else.
Belgium 'bungled Abdeslam's arrest' two days after Paris attacks due to law banning overnight raids
Police failed to arrest Salah Abdeslam, Europe's most wanted man, after locating him in Molenbeek two days after the Paris attacks due to a legal loophole over searching premises between 11pm and 5am
God Belgium is a joke isn't it. Surprised they don't have to send them a nice leaflet to inform them that next Friday they will be conducting a raid to capture you.
So in conclusion, for now their chances are: Trump 50 Cruz 33 Carson 11 Paul 5 Rest 1
I'll take as much 100/1 Rubio as you're offering.
You're no fun.
Speedy's analysis, whilst right to note the similarities between Trump & Corbyn, neglects the fact that the electorate is vastly wider (not just bigger) in American primaries than in Labour's system.
Primaries are simple beasts, if you know the character and the make up of the party base. You say there is no parallel, but every election has the same rules basic rule: policies that people like and campaigning skills.
In the Labour leadership race Corbyn was the closest to the average Labour voter in terms of policy and the most competent campaigner by far of his rivals, so he won in a landslide, and Liz Kendall was the most far away from the average Labour voter and the most incompetent campaigner, so she came dead last.
In the GOP race who is the closest to the average republican voter in terms of policy?: Trump and Cruz equally. Who is the best campaigner so far?: Trump first, then Cruz
Who is the farthest away from the average republican voter?: Kasich, Christie ,Bush, Rubio, Fiorina, in that order (though they are all close on that one)
Who is the worst campaigner so far? : Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich in that order
So from 9 candidates Trump along with Cruz scores closest to the average voter with policy, while Rubio is 4th farthest, when campaigning Trump is the best while Rubio is 3rd worst. Logic dictates that since Rubio's policies are not well liked by the average republican and he is a bad campaigner, his chances should be small.
I notice Cameron and May are dissin' Trump's posse today.
Bit embarrassing if he does win...
If he does win, Cameron will need to rush his retirement before Trump's inauguration in Jan.2017 or else the anglo-american alliance will be terminated, as Trump never forgets an insult. Cameron has put a large bet against Trump becoming president, his job.
Speedy, how would you put the %'age changes of each GOP candidate?
Well last time I said Trump 50, Carson 50 in October, now I think it's Trump 50, Cruz 50. Basically Trump has a 50/50 chance, but his main challenger also has a 50/50 chance, as long as his main challenger is a conservative not an establishment-moderate, if it's an establishment-moderate then its 100% Trump. Of course the main challenger can change over time, like flavours of the month, so I'll wait a month to see if Cruz is still there, but basically conservatives are running out of options if they don't like Cruz anymore. If Cruz falls off like Carson we may see a resurgence of Carson or even Paul becoming the flavour of the month during Iowa, presently I think it's a 1 in 3 chance that Cruz falls off, and a 1 in 3 that Paul gets his support instead of Carson.
Establishment candidates like Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina have no chance, simply because they are too moderate and perceived as too corrupt, not to mention most of them are incompetent at their job. Also the establishment-moderate vote is always around 25% and it's split because all of them suck as candidates as much as the non-establishments (Gingrich, Perry, Santorum ect) in 2012 (it's a reverse mirror picture of the 2012 primaries). They are the Liz Kendall's of the republican party (Liz Kendall was also the favourite in the betting markets once, despite my warnings that she may end up dead last)
So in conclusion, for now their chances are: Trump 50 Cruz 33 Carson 11 Paul 5 Rest 1
Cheers.
Are there any odds you'd back Rubio at?
Have to say, Speedy's assessments of the US GOP are always an amusing load of rubbish.
IN is 1.61 or 8/13 on betfair, considering we're more or less unanimous about the result that has to a be great price
Events.
Don't get me wrong I'll be doing my bit for OUT I'm just surprised at the price.
I've been selling both when the price is "right". I'm currently selling "In", and will do so - in small size - at these levels.
I'd be happier if I knew when the market would conclude...
There are 27 other members of the EU. They all have to agree to any changes. They all have issues that are important to their own electorates. (And the thing that all politicians care about most is re-elections).
I can't see any agreement unless it looks like the UK will actually leave (taking its valuable budget contributions with it). Therefore, I would suggest it will take the actual threat from Cameron to lead the "Leave" campaign in mid 2017 to finalise Heads of Terms.
I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.
Just regular run of the mill nutters then.
My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that: "the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."
The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
Terrorist who attended human rights conferences with Jeremy Corbyn faces jail.
Actually it looks as though the security services would do well to investigate any foreigner who attends a conference with Jez. The guy seems to be a human magnet for bad 'uns.
Comments
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/16/was-marco-rubio-overrated-all-along.html?
"Yes, Rubio has soaked up the Beltway buzz, but no one seems to know what primaries he could actually, you know, win. "
"Rubio had what looked like a perfect political moment. Polls indicate he’s the most electable Republican in a race against Clinton, and pundits and the GOP establishment waited for his seemingly inevitable surge.
And waited. And waited.
Now, instead of talk of a boom for Rubio, we increasingly have Republicans wondering how the guy is getting so consistently out-hustled on the ground. “[U]nderneath the buzz, GOP activists in New Hampshire are grumbling that Rubio has fewer staff members and endorsements than most of his main rivals and has made fewer campaign appearances in the state, where voters are accustomed to face-to-face contact with presidential contenders,” The Boston Globe wrote this month. Iowa Republicans, meanwhile, are likewise annoyed that he doesn’t have much of a presence there.
Rubio’s apparent reluctance to really work the trail is all a bit mystifying. He says he’s missing Senate votes because he’s busy campaigning, and then people in New Hampshire and Iowa get miffed that he’s nowhere to be found. You don’t need a lot of money to barnstorm, which is why it’s usually the preferred tactic of candidates like Rubio, who has lagged behind Cruz and Bush in the fundraising race."
It's details like that, that make me accurate in my forecasts of the GOP race, and my forecasting accuracy so far is close to (if not at) 100%, if you don't believe me ask President Scott Walker and Labour leader Liz Kendall.
The septics will elect who they please but apart from the betting opportunities I can't see why any Brit should give a toss who they pick. Lets face it none of the candidates, from either party, would get a look in over here and most of us don't understand the culture in which they seem to be able to rise to the top.
Court hears Abdul Raoof Al Shayeb claimed he was a leading human rights activist but was found with guides of how to be a terrorist.
He met with the Labour leader "many times" to discuss the human rights situation in Bahrain and attended the home of Lord Eric Avebury, Vice Chair of the Parliamentary Human Rights Group.
But when police raided his Maida Vale home they discovered a 16GB SD card loaded with military files on "bombs", "missiles" and "destruction" alongside Jihadi exam papers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/12054443/Terrorist-who-attended-human-rights-conferences-with-Jeremy-Corbyn-faces-jail.html
Lovely picture there...Will Jahadi Jez be writing another letter of support? Cameron is right on Jez, he really is a danger to national security.
If the government stated that, should In win, everyone in the country would receive £10,000, then In would win 80:20. The same is true in reverse.
The vast majority of people care about their own narrow, short-term financial interests above all else.
Police failed to arrest Salah Abdeslam, Europe's most wanted man, after locating him in Molenbeek two days after the Paris attacks due to a legal loophole over searching premises between 11pm and 5am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12053791/Belgium-bungled-Abdeslams-arrest-two-days-after-Paris-attacks-due-to-law-banning-overnight-raids.html
God Belgium is a joke isn't it. Surprised they don't have to send them a nice leaflet to inform them that next Friday they will be conducting a raid to capture you.
You say there is no parallel, but every election has the same rules basic rule: policies that people like and campaigning skills.
In the Labour leadership race Corbyn was the closest to the average Labour voter in terms of policy and the most competent campaigner by far of his rivals, so he won in a landslide, and Liz Kendall was the most far away from the average Labour voter and the most incompetent campaigner, so she came dead last.
In the GOP race who is the closest to the average republican voter in terms of policy?:
Trump and Cruz equally.
Who is the best campaigner so far?: Trump first, then Cruz
Who is the farthest away from the average republican voter?:
Kasich, Christie ,Bush, Rubio, Fiorina, in that order (though they are all close on that one)
Who is the worst campaigner so far? :
Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich in that order
So from 9 candidates Trump along with Cruz scores closest to the average voter with policy, while Rubio is 4th farthest, when campaigning Trump is the best while Rubio is 3rd worst.
Logic dictates that since Rubio's policies are not well liked by the average republican and he is a bad campaigner, his chances should be small.
Just regular run of the mill nutters then.
I think I said that yesterday
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."
The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.