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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The race for the Republican nomination could be clearer aft

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  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @Morris_Dancer Yes I saw his 'resignation' from 2013 on twitter! :grin: I can't say I'm shocked, but it's yet another person which Labour have (sadly) alienated.

    @Plato_Says Thanks for the link, I hadn't see the whole article. I'd only heard of the news due to Dan Hodges trending on twitter.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Time for a sanity check for those who think this is coming down to Trump vs Cruz.

    Iowa, four years ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/12/14/has-the-gingrich-surge-run-out-of-steam/

    Caveat punter.

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited 2015 15
    @Tissue_Price He's resigned (for a second time) this week. Naturally, Twitter are all very happy about it. By 2020, Twitter, Corbyn and Abbott will be all that is left of Labour at this rate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Average wages up by 3%, average house prices up by 7%.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35101209

    I make that a 4% swing to homeowners from non-homeowners in just 12 months.

    No wonder the kids are Corbynistas. Without rich parents, they're fucked.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Pong, whereas with Corbyn as PM, *everyone* is ****ed.

    Maximum equality!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    They CAN'T ALL be lays !
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Mr. D, not only that, it's practically to the coastline of multiple nations.

    The extent may be piss-taking, so they can be conciliatory (ahem) and graciously allow countries a mile or two of coastal water to call their own.

    It's apalling behaviour. However there's bugger all we can do about it, and China knows there's bugger all we can do about it. If anyone thinks differently, they can take their complaint to the last century of policians who've reduced us to our current state.
    Yes, the Russian Navy has seen quite a decline over the last couple of decades. One assumes the cash has been siphoned off into various Swiss bank accounts. Shame about those Mistrals that the French sold to Egypt.

    Where has the Admiral Kuznetsov broken down this week?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited 2015 15
    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    580.0 to back for Republican nomination. Can't see how this happens.

    I'm not currently involved but long Cruz looks like the most sensible play at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    580.0 to back for Republican nomination. Can't see how this happens.

    I'm not currently involved but long Cruz looks like the most sensible play at the moment.
    Mortgage job.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    "Are you into gambling? You are? Well, here’s a tip: Don’t put any money on Michael Bloomberg becoming president"

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/stop-trying-to-make-bloomberg-happen/411514/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A brokered convention isn't impossible with a new compromise candidate. Or an establishment-backed candidate drafted to stop Trump is conceivable. The odds on both must be low now though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,268

    @Tissue_Price He's resigned (for a second time) this week. Naturally, Twitter are all very happy about it. By 2020, Twitter, Corbyn and Abbott will be all that is left of Labour at this rate.

    CiF also
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Bruno Watersfield
    EU border force: armed , foreign police coming in uninvited, taking over territory to organise deportations https://t.co/5LjWiIg9n9
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Surely rubio needs to be doing better in NH than he is right now to justify 2.54:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

    Bush and Rubio both completely at sea (Compared to their odds) in their home state - Florida !!

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    580.0 to back for Republican nomination. Can't see how this happens.

    I'm not currently involved but long Cruz looks like the most sensible play at the moment.
    I've gone long Cruz and the Donald. Most recent move was to lay Rubio tbh.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    That’s all we need, Russian missiles defecting to the west….!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited 2015 15

    A brokered convention isn't impossible with a new compromise candidate. Or an establishment-backed candidate drafted to stop Trump is conceivable. The odds on both must be low now though.

    I'm not sure the odds are that low. The conventional idea is that one leading candidate emerges after the early primaries, others drop out, and later primaries just rubber-stamp the leader. But if the leading candidate is Trump, there will be enormous pressure from the establishment and from donors to keep someone - anyone! - who is vaguely credible in the race. That could mean that some of the later winner-takes-all states could go non-Trump, denying him the majority he needs to prevent selection by horse-trading. More likely an existing candidate than a new one, though.

    Having said all that, there is still time for the picture to change dramatically even before Super Tuesday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Miss Plato, is that Schengen or EU-wide?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    That’s all we need, Russian missiles defecting to the west….!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    A brokered convention isn't impossible with a new compromise candidate. Or an establishment-backed candidate drafted to stop Trump is conceivable. The odds on both must be low now though.

    I'm not sure the odds are that low. The conventional idea is that one leading candidate emerges after the early primaries, others drop out, and later primaries just rubber-stamp the leader. But if the leading candidate is Trump, there will be enormous pressure from the establishment and from donors to keep someone - anyone! - who is vaguely credible in the race. That could mean that some of the later winner-takes-all states could go non-Trump. More likely an existing candidate than a new one, though.

    Having said all that, there is still time for the picture to change dramatically even before Super Tuesday.
    I don't think the primaries will follow the conventional route (excuse the pun, but you made it first) if Trump is still doing well. Acquainting oneself with "delegate math" is vital.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    A brokered convention isn't impossible with a new compromise candidate. Or an establishment-backed candidate drafted to stop Trump is conceivable. The odds on both must be low now though.

    I'm not sure the odds are that low. The conventional idea is that one leading candidate emerges after the early primaries, others drop out, and later primaries just rubber-stamp the leader. But if the leading candidate is Trump, there will be enormous pressure from the establishment and from donors to keep someone - anyone! - who is vaguely credible in the race. That could mean that some of the later winner-takes-all states could go non-Trump. More likely an existing candidate than a new one, though.

    Having said all that, there is still time for the picture to change dramatically even before Super Tuesday.
    1) I don't think there's going to be a brokered convention. There's no reason to assume this year is going to be any different from any other election cycle in the recent past.

    2) I don't think that Donald Trump is going to look unstoppable once the primary round actually starts. I'm of the Nate Silver school that thinks that the public haven't really tuned in properly yet. So I don't think a stop Trump candidate will be required.

    3) I agree with you that if I'm wrong about either (1) or (2), the establishment will swing behind an existing candidate rather than draft someone else new in.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    BTW, saddo that I am, I had a dream last night that Trump made a dramatic announcement in tonight's debate: that the whole thing had been a big joke and he was pulling out.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'EU border force: armed , foreign police coming in uninvited, taking over territory to organise deportation'

    Never waste a good crisis...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Brilliant

    Moody Slayer
    #Moments.
    Election night 2015. https://t.co/WguWFtVALT
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Brilliant

    Moody Slayer
    #Moments.
    Election night 2015. https://t.co/WguWFtVALT

    And note the timestamp!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I know! It's just so funny.

    Brilliant

    Moody Slayer
    #Moments.
    Election night 2015. https://t.co/WguWFtVALT

    And note the timestamp!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    That tweet is after Nuneaton isn't it ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:



    Bush and Rubio both completely at sea (Compared to their odds) in their home state - Florida !!

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

    November 18th date of the last poll.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,831
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    580.0 to back for Republican nomination. Can't see how this happens.

    I'm not currently involved but long Cruz looks like the most sensible play at the moment.
    I've gone long Cruz and the Donald. Most recent move was to lay Rubio tbh.
    Isn't Bloomberg more likely to run as 3rd candidate, as indie?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,482

    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.

    I don't think that's a particularly fair competition these days (except in the sense of Japan being a US proxy).

    India won't do a thing. It's sensible for them to be diplomatically in the middle and let the great powers court them. I also just don't think they'd be very effective for some reason. If you have those sorts of financial resources and you can't organise a Commonwealth Games without dissentry in the pool and bridges falling down, what hope have you of sending an Armada to sort out the Chinese?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    edited 2015 15
    It must be a quiet news day.

    LA schools closed because of a threat is big news. However NY schools have treated it as a hoax.

    And Major Tim Peake is the first ever Brit to go to Space Station. However several hundred others have already been over the last few years. Even Howard Wolowitz went a couple of years ago!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.

    I don't think that's a particularly fair competition these days (except in the sense of Japan being a US proxy).

    India won't do a thing. It's sensible for them to be diplomatically in the middle and let the great powers court them. I also just don't think they'd be very effective for some reason. If you have those sorts of financial resources and you can't organise a Commonwealth Games without dissentry in the pool and bridges falling down, what hope have you of sending an Armada to sort out the Chinese?
    True, but the Indians currently have more aircraft carriers than the UK...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    Mr Dancer,

    These aren't the missiles you're looking for!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 15
    Jezza's Christmas card has been in the top five most read stories in the Times all day...
    CD13 said:

    It must be a quiet news day.

    LA schools closed because of a threat is big news. However NY schools have treated it as a hoax.

    And Major Tim Peake is the first ever Brit to go to Space Station. However several hundred others have already been over the last few years. Even Howard Wolowitz went a couple of years ago!

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,482

    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.

    I don't think that's a particularly fair competition these days (except in the sense of Japan being a US proxy).

    India won't do a thing. It's sensible for them to be diplomatically in the middle and let the great powers court them. I also just don't think they'd be very effective for some reason. If you have those sorts of financial resources and you can't organise a Commonwealth Games without dissentry in the pool and bridges falling down, what hope have you of sending an Armada to sort out the Chinese?
    True, but the Indians currently have more aircraft carriers than the UK...
    I'm sure they've even got planes to go on them too, but I'm not sure anyone should be using the Royal Navy as a measure of success these days.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819

    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.

    I don't think that's a particularly fair competition these days (except in the sense of Japan being a US proxy).

    India won't do a thing. It's sensible for them to be diplomatically in the middle and let the great powers court them. I also just don't think they'd be very effective for some reason. If you have those sorts of financial resources and you can't organise a Commonwealth Games without dissentry in the pool and bridges falling down, what hope have you of sending an Armada to sort out the Chinese?
    True, but the Indians currently have more aircraft carriers than the UK...
    But do they work?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641
    edited 2015 15

    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.

    I don't think that's a particularly fair competition these days (except in the sense of Japan being a US proxy).

    India won't do a thing. It's sensible for them to be diplomatically in the middle and let the great powers court them. I also just don't think they'd be very effective for some reason. If you have those sorts of financial resources and you can't organise a Commonwealth Games without dissentry in the pool and bridges falling down, what hope have you of sending an Armada to sort out the Chinese?
    True, but the Indians currently have more aircraft carriers than the UK...
    But do they work?
    Well, the former HMS Hermes (INS Viraat since 1987) is actually coming to the end of her useful life, she will be retired next year.

    INS Vikramaditya commissioned two years ago:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikramaditya

    https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=INS_Viraat&redirect=no

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,831
    Looks like we have sight of the next battleground for Osborne and welfare benefits:

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-welfare-bill-could-become-a-benefits-trap-so-im-proposing-an-amendment/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Voodoo poll alert:

    Kevin Sinfield crushing Ennis Hill in battle for Yorkshire SPOTY

    http://fans.vote/ACkNGZ4GHUw/yorkshire-post-sport/who-is-your-yorkshire-sports-hero-of-2015?&ref=results
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Pulpstar, ha, I missed the 'Yorkshire' bit at first.

    If Sinfield won SPOTY it'd be a shock, but there will be many people from Yorkshire voting for him. I'm not into rugby league, but even I know about the treble and his stellar career.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited 2015 15
    Great picture of children at the Science Museum today cheering Tim Peak into space.

    Hope this has the Wimbledon effect on the future for scientists and astronauts.

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03526/ndo-launch-tim-pea_3526917b.jpg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    They must be low rent cruise missiles Russian has, when they can hit a block of flats
    during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt

    Unless nobody was hurt because they were vaporised before their synapses had time to fire up?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750

    Mr. Pulpstar, ha, I missed the 'Yorkshire' bit at first.

    If Sinfield won SPOTY it'd be a shock, but there will be many people from Yorkshire voting for him. I'm not into rugby league, but even I know about the treble and his stellar career.

    Hmm I think Murray is justifiably fav, but Sinfield has a remote chance. Lay Ennis Hill at 5-2 is perhaps the bet.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Pulpstar, Murray should get the Scottish vote (which I think is basically the same size as the Yorkshire vote). There's no stand out achievement (Hamilton won in F1 but it was not a great season), so maybe backing an outsider makes sense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    They must be low rent cruise missiles Russian has, when they can hit a block of flats
    during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt

    Unless nobody was hurt because they were vaporised before their synapses had time to fire up?
    Well it says they were evacuated. But who knows....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 15

    BTW, saddo that I am, I had a dream last night that Trump made a dramatic announcement in tonight's debate: that the whole thing had been a big joke and he was pulling out.

    If I were Trump, I would make a dramatic announcement on stage, but not that one.

    Instead since Trump asked from CNN to pay 5$ million to a veterans charity in order to appear on stage, but CNN refused, so I would have done an announcement on live TV on stage at the very beginning of the debate saying that "I always keep my word, Donald Trump always keeps his word, since CNN didn't give the money to the veterans charity, I will keep my word and leave the debate, always remember Trump keeps his word" and then I would have left the stage to the jaw dropping audience of tens of millions and made TV history.

    And all that would remain on the mind of the audience after the debate would be the phrase "Trump always keeps his word".

    Of course with Trump you never know, he might do a similar thing tonight.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    RobD said:

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    They must be low rent cruise missiles Russian has, when they can hit a block of flats
    during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt

    Unless nobody was hurt because they were vaporised before their synapses had time to fire up?
    Well it says they were evacuated. But who knows....
    Guesswork, but if it was a test the missile might have only had a dummy warhead. The fire might have been caused by a combination of propellent and items in the flat (e.g. gas mains).

    Or there might have been a translation error, and the flats might have been evacuated before the test (although that's unlikely).
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    RobD said:

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    They must be low rent cruise missiles Russian has, when they can hit a block of flats
    during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt

    Unless nobody was hurt because they were vaporised before their synapses had time to fire up?
    Well it says they were evacuated. But who knows....
    Evacuated? Someone's mistranslated 'Evaporated'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641
    RobD said:

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    They must be low rent cruise missiles Russian has, when they can hit a block of flats
    during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt

    Unless nobody was hurt because they were vaporised before their synapses had time to fire up?
    Well it says they were evacuated. But who knows....
    "Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you over-estimate their chances!"
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Speedy said:

    BTW, saddo that I am, I had a dream last night that Trump made a dramatic announcement in tonight's debate: that the whole thing had been a big joke and he was pulling out.

    If I were Trump, I would make a dramatic announcement on stage, but not that one.

    Instead since Trump asked from CNN to pay 5$ million to a veterans charity in order to appear on stage, but CNN refused, so I would have done an announcement on live TV on stage at the very beginning of the debate saying that "I always keep my word, Donald Trump always keeps his word, since CNN didn't give the money to the veterans charity, I will keep my word and leave the debate, always remember Trump keeps his word" and then I would have left the stage to the jaw dropping audience of tens of millions and made TV history.

    And all that would remain on the mind of the audience after the debate would be the phrase "Trump always keeps his word".

    Of course with Trump you never know, he might do a similar thing tonight.
    LOL, that would be funny if he does, and I won't rule it out, his calculation would be - does this get me the headlines and media attention to such an extent over the next few days that it drowns out any coverage of the others, and he may conclude that it does!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    RobD said:

    Russian cruise missile goes astray. No casualties, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35106935

    They must be low rent cruise missiles Russian has, when they can hit a block of flats
    during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt

    Unless nobody was hurt because they were vaporised before their synapses had time to fire up?
    Well it says they were evacuated. But who knows....
    "Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you over-estimate their chances!"
    I wonder if the comrade who scuttled the missile will be awarded the Order of Lenin? :D
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Mr. 1983, it may also be a test-run for China when it comes to the islands disputed between themselves and Japan (who currently possess them). Taiwan also claims those islands but is not really in a position to pursue that.

    The corollary of Chinese militarist expansion (almost as soon as he became president, Xi Jinping was said to be keen on bolstering the military) may be the resurgence of Japanese nationalism and willingness to deploy military assets, even if only in self-defence.

    How India reacts will also be interesting to see.

    I don't think that's a particularly fair competition these days (except in the sense of Japan being a US proxy).

    India won't do a thing. It's sensible for them to be diplomatically in the middle and let the great powers court them. I also just don't think they'd be very effective for some reason. If you have those sorts of financial resources and you can't organise a Commonwealth Games without dissentry in the pool and bridges falling down, what hope have you of sending an Armada to sort out the Chinese?
    China spanked India in '62 iirc. No earthly reason why they couldn't do it again.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    LG83.. will be along in a moment..after he gets his e mail..to tell us it is all shameless Western propaganda
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited 2015 15
    This is the US Secretary of State right now:

    @dpletka · 16m16 minutes ago
    Guess who said this. You simply won't believe it. (Hint: it's @JohnKerry )

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWSMutzW4AArwUu.jpg
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 15
    BigRich said:

    Speedy said:

    BTW, saddo that I am, I had a dream last night that Trump made a dramatic announcement in tonight's debate: that the whole thing had been a big joke and he was pulling out.

    If I were Trump, I would make a dramatic announcement on stage, but not that one.

    Instead since Trump asked from CNN to pay 5$ million to a veterans charity in order to appear on stage, but CNN refused, so I would have done an announcement on live TV on stage at the very beginning of the debate saying that "I always keep my word, Donald Trump always keeps his word, since CNN didn't give the money to the veterans charity, I will keep my word and leave the debate, always remember Trump keeps his word" and then I would have left the stage to the jaw dropping audience of tens of millions and made TV history.

    And all that would remain on the mind of the audience after the debate would be the phrase "Trump always keeps his word".

    Of course with Trump you never know, he might do a similar thing tonight.
    LOL, that would be funny if he does, and I won't rule it out, his calculation would be - does this get me the headlines and media attention to such an extent over the next few days that it drowns out any coverage of the others, and he may conclude that it does!!!
    It certainly would, because of 3 factors:

    1. Because no one has left any debate while on live TV and certainly not on his terms in 60 years of world TV.
    2. Because it will be totally unexpected.

    1+2= continuous repeats of the clip of that moment, people will want to watch it for decades in the future, like sometimes we watch famous moments from debates from the past on youtube.

    And also:
    3. Because of conditional reasoning to imprint on the minds of the audience the phrase "Trump always keeps his word" so that every time people hear about Trump they will automatically think about integrity.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited 2015 15
    A useful article on the outlook for the GOP primaries in key states:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/newsdesk/states-that-could-pick-gop-nominee?mref=home_top_side_1

    Key quote:

    “I think you can have three can­did­ates—Cruz, Trump, and Ru­bio—go all the way to Cali­for­nia [which votes on June 7],” says Re­pub­lic­an strategist Scott Reed, the cam­paign man­ager for Bob Dole in 1996. “Be­cause of the way the cal­en­dar is de­signed, with so many del­eg­ates be­ing pro­por­tion­al up un­til March 15, then win­ner-take-all, it’s go­ing to be very hard for someone to get to the ma­gic num­ber [needed for the nom­in­a­tion] un­til later than ever. Cali­for­nia may really mat­ter this time.”
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    All is not lost for the vendor, change the headscarf for a balaclava and flog em to Momentum.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Makes you yearn for Dan Quayle misspelling potato

    This is the US Secretary of State right now:

    @dpletka · 16m16 minutes ago
    Guess who said this. You simply won't believe it. (Hint: it's @JohnKerry )

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWSMutzW4AArwUu.jpg

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Is Jeremy Corbyn accurately predicting a government policy is about to ruin the country for future generations?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,773

    Brilliant

    Moody Slayer
    #Moments.
    Election night 2015. https://t.co/WguWFtVALT

    And note the timestamp!
    Excellent.

    Eoin of the Bungle.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited 2015 15

    LG83.. will be along in a moment..after he gets his e mail..to tell us it is all shameless Western propaganda

    'Russian missiles only kill enemy combatants. Anyone else remains unscathed.' or some such nonsense.

    Meanwhile his chums, the Vlads, are dropping cluster bombs and phosphorous on random Syrians.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    watford30 said:

    LG83.. will be along in a moment..after he gets his e mail..to tell us it is all shameless Western propaganda

    'Russian missiles only kill enemy combatants. Anyone else remains unscathed.' or some such nonsense.

    Meanwhile his chums, the Vlads, are dropping cluster bombs and phosphorous on random Syrians.
    I'm pretty sure there was a terrorist cell hiding in that block of flats! ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    "Are you into gambling? You are? Well, here’s a tip: Don’t put any money on Michael Bloomberg becoming president"

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/stop-trying-to-make-bloomberg-happen/411514/
    Damn, and I have 50p on that too!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 15

    A useful article on the outlook for the GOP primaries in key states:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/newsdesk/states-that-could-pick-gop-nominee?mref=home_top_side_1

    Key quote:

    “I think you can have three can­did­ates—Cruz, Trump, and Ru­bio—go all the way to Cali­for­nia [which votes on June 7],” says Re­pub­lic­an strategist Scott Reed, the cam­paign man­ager for Bob Dole in 1996. “Be­cause of the way the cal­en­dar is de­signed, with so many del­eg­ates be­ing pro­por­tion­al up un­til March 15, then win­ner-take-all, it’s go­ing to be very hard for someone to get to the ma­gic num­ber [needed for the nom­in­a­tion] un­til later than ever. Cali­for­nia may really mat­ter this time.”

    You should have asked me instead, I'm much better at predicting the GOP race so far than any other, so far close to (if not at) 100% accuracy.

    So here's the list of states that matter:
    1. Iowa
    If Trump wins Iowa, he wins the nomination-period.
    If Trump doesn't win Iowa, then the person who does will be his main challenger, unless Trump also loses N.H.

    2. N.Hampshire
    If Trump hasn't won Iowa, then he needs N.H or he's out, same goes for those who haven't won Iowa.
    If the person who won Iowa also wins N.H. then he is the nominee.

    3. S.Carolina
    The delusional's last stand, if those who have failed to win the last 2 are still in the race and have lost S.C. then they are will truly be sidelined by everyone including their last supporters.

    4. The southern states on Super Tuesday.
    Trump has to win a majority of those the states to keep momentum.
    His challenger has to win his home state to avoid a collapse, and a majority of southern states to build momentum.

    Although Scott Reed was a campaign manager 20 years ago for Bob Dole, he has no idea about the modern world, especially if his last hope to nominate Rubio is California.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    "Are you into gambling? You are? Well, here’s a tip: Don’t put any money on Michael Bloomberg becoming president"

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/stop-trying-to-make-bloomberg-happen/411514/
    Michael Bloomberg is considering a run, whatever that article says. PBers be assured, I have actual knowledge of this :-)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think Rubio wins this. But I can't in good faith write my thread advising people to back him at the current odds!

    Yes, he's a lay at the current odds.

    Hell, they're ALL lays at the current odds!
    Who's entering the race?!
    Bloomberg.
    "Are you into gambling? You are? Well, here’s a tip: Don’t put any money on Michael Bloomberg becoming president"

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/stop-trying-to-make-bloomberg-happen/411514/
    Michael Bloomberg is considering a run, whatever that article says. PBers be assured, I have actual knowledge of this :-)
    If he runs, tell us in advance so I can bet on Trump winning the presidency, as Bloomberg will get more votes from democrats than republicans, like John Anderson did in 1980.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,756
    edited 2015 15
    have a laugh at Labour talent.......https://t.co/kyhV1GIGj3
    Is it any wonder the SNP sweep the boards here.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    While we are at the 2016 subject, new national and Iowa polls:

    ABC national poll:

    Trump 38 +6
    Cruz 15 +8
    Rubio 12 +1
    Carson 12 -10
    Bush 5 -1
    Christie 4 +2
    Kasich 2 -1
    Paul 2 -1
    Fiorina 1 -3

    This is probably the last debate with Paul and Fiorina on stage.

    PPP Iowa:

    Trump 28 +6
    Cruz 25 +11
    Rubio 14 +4
    Carson 10 -11
    Bush 7 +2
    Christie 3 0
    Fiorina 3 -2
    Huckabee 3 -3
    Kasich 2 0

    Also, Rubio might get sucked into a corruption scandal:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/125957/did-marco-rubios-donors-fund-book-that-put-800-000-into-rubios-pocket?mref=recommended_1

    Rubio might have violated Congressional Ethics Rules, it's a big deal, last time it cost the head of Jim Wright then House Speaker in 1989, however since Rubio is leaving politics anyway and not seeking re-election it doesn't affect republicans in the Senate:

    "Just sev­en weeks shy of the Iowa caucuses, Ru­bio worst-case scen­ario isn’t what the Eth­ics Com­mit­tee might do to him fol­low­ing a lengthy in­vest­ig­a­tion, giv­en that he’s already made it clear he plans to leave the cham­ber next year either way. It’s what his GOP rivals might do with this new tid­bit in those sev­en weeks, giv­en Ru­bio’s already well-doc­u­mented prob­lems with money."

    But it will still terminate his campaign to run for president.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I still can't get over UK Elects prediction that the Tories will get six seats and Labour ZERO.

    It's hilarious. Believe it when I see it - but strange things are happening right now...
    RobD said:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    I still can't get over UK Elects prediction that the Tories will get six seats and Labour ZERO.

    It's hilarious. Believe it when I see it - but strange things are happening right now...

    RobD said:
    Labour will get some list seats, but I look forward to the Tories being the official opposition in Scotland. The long road to recovery continues....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,741
    Jesus. His Barrister must be some persuasive guy/gal

    @CourtNewsUK: Saudi millionaire cleared of raping teen after claiming he accidentally penetrated her when he slipped and fell
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited 2015 15
    malcolmg said:

    have a laugh at Labour talent.......https://t.co/kyhV1GIGj3
    Is it any wonder the SNP sweep the boards here.

    Someone's posted a video of a local council meeting in a foreign country. Are we meant to be impressed? What language were they speaking BTW?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 15
    I'm predicting an SNP minority government.
    Although there is a chance for an SNP-Green coalition.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 15

    Jesus. His Barrister must be some persuasive guy/gal

    @CourtNewsUK: Saudi millionaire cleared of raping teen after claiming he accidentally penetrated her when he slipped and fell

    I believe his wallet was most impressive.
    Who said that british justice is blind.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246

    This is the US Secretary of State right now:

    @dpletka · 16m16 minutes ago
    Guess who said this. You simply won't believe it. (Hint: it's @JohnKerry )

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWSMutzW4AArwUu.jpg

    He should really have got the conspiracy theorists wet and used Fernando Poo.

    http://illuminatus.wikia.com/wiki/Fernando_Poo
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, the EU seem hell bent on coming up with some bizarre proposals:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9421c7d8-a333-11e5-bc70-7ff6d4fd203a.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3uPrLcApJ

    "The European Commission has unveiled plans for a new EU border agency that would be capable of deploying guards to a country’s frontiers in an emergency — even if the national government objected."

    "The plan must still be approved by EU member states and the European Parliament but a commission official said it already enjoyed the backing of France and Germany, the two largest EU members."

    "Under the new proposal, a weighted majority of EU countries could vote to override Greek objections and send in assistance — even if Athens voted against the plan in Brussels.

    Officials acknowledged giving powers to an EU agency to send in guards — some of whom could be armed and empowered with the right to force migrants into registration centres — over the objections of a national government could lead to tensions."

    Can you just imagine it - the French and Germans invading Greece to man their borders? Me neither.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Jesus. His Barrister must be some persuasive guy/gal

    @CourtNewsUK: Saudi millionaire cleared of raping teen after claiming he accidentally penetrated her when he slipped and fell

    His first name is Justin.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Officials acknowledged giving powers to an EU agency to send in guards — some of whom could be armed and empowered with the right to force migrants into registration centres — over the objections of a national government could lead to tensions."

    LOL!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Speedy said:

    Jesus. His Barrister must be some persuasive guy/gal

    @CourtNewsUK: Saudi millionaire cleared of raping teen after claiming he accidentally penetrated her when he slipped and fell

    I believe his wallet was most impressive.
    Who said that british justice is blind.
    Thankfully our banknotes are blind-friendly.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    RobD said:
    In Scotland its who will lose least badly v the SNP. Its too early for voters to have their revenge on the SNP, but that moment is moving closer, just not this time.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    They're trying to ban under 16yrs from using social media too. The devil and idle hands springs to mind.

    Meanwhile, the EU seem hell bent on coming up with some bizarre proposals:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9421c7d8-a333-11e5-bc70-7ff6d4fd203a.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3uPrLcApJ

    "The European Commission has unveiled plans for a new EU border agency that would be capable of deploying guards to a country’s frontiers in an emergency — even if the national government objected."

    "The plan must still be approved by EU member states and the European Parliament but a commission official said it already enjoyed the backing of France and Germany, the two largest EU members."

    "Under the new proposal, a weighted majority of EU countries could vote to override Greek objections and send in assistance — even if Athens voted against the plan in Brussels.

    Officials acknowledged giving powers to an EU agency to send in guards — some of whom could be armed and empowered with the right to force migrants into registration centres — over the objections of a national government could lead to tensions."

    Can you just imagine it - the French and Germans invading Greece to man their borders? Me neither.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,756
    watford30 said:

    malcolmg said:

    have a laugh at Labour talent.......https://t.co/kyhV1GIGj3
    Is it any wonder the SNP sweep the boards here.

    Someone's posted a video of a local council meeting in a foreign country. Are we meant to be impressed? What language were they speaking BTW?
    I would not expect a cretin like you to understand anything other than "how much is my JSA"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,756

    RobD said:
    In Scotland its who will lose least badly v the SNP. Its too early for voters to have their revenge on the SNP, but that moment is moving closer, just not this time.
    2050 maybe
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,756
    Speedy said:

    I'm predicting an SNP minority government.
    Although there is a chance for an SNP-Green coalition.
    Ha Ha Ha a comedian
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,144
    Rubio and Bush are clearly the establishment's favourite candidates, they may prefer Cruz to Trump with a gun to their head but Cruz is too radical and populist to be the establishment candidate
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I don't if this has been posted before, but Dan Hodges has left the Labour party.

    This is the best f*cking news I have had in 2015 ! TBH, it is a surprise he was with Labour after 2007.

    He is a natural Tory !
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    malcolmg said:

    watford30 said:

    malcolmg said:

    have a laugh at Labour talent.......https://t.co/kyhV1GIGj3
    Is it any wonder the SNP sweep the boards here.

    Someone's posted a video of a local council meeting in a foreign country. Are we meant to be impressed? What language were they speaking BTW?
    I would not expect a cretin like you to understand anything other than "how much is my JSA"
    Can you try that again in English?
This discussion has been closed.