Corbyn remains unelectable and McDonnell is mad enough to destroy the party but this election suggests labour may have a bit of space to screw up internally and it not be an extinction event like in Scotland. There is no snp in labour england.
Yes, that's a well-made point. However, they are using up that 'bit of space' rather fast. I don't think it will be an extinction event, but they could easily make themselves unelectable for a long time, surviving on brand loyalty.
As for the Conservtaives this looks quite bad for Osborne to me. His two themes: northern powerhouse (and this is part of the g. Manc Devo deal) and the new workers party seem to have fallen flat. He has been front and centre of everything since the election. Obviously that is aimed at the stockports and crewes of this world but hasn't got any traction at all here where the Tories have got 20% in local elections.
Governments normally drop back in by-elections and UKIP was being talked up as the challenger to Labour. This just isn't the kind of situation where you'd expect the Tories to have any traction.
'I think most people are amused with the games being played with the media. It is quite obvious what is going on.'
Indeed it is - but the Danes yesterday have shown us the right way to respond to this kind of pathetic attempt at manipulation.Tell the political establishment to get stuffed.
In the interests of decency, and for laptop users with coffee, I have only posted part of this twitter link.
It does have an example of Danglish, albeit a mix of pure Anglo Saxon and Danish. Even the tabloids here are slow to make use of the word Fkuc (anagram) on a front page.
Perhaps @NickPalmer might be able to translate the headline word for word.
I admire your optimism, but, sadly, I don't think the deal will be worthy of the name.
I wasn't being optimistic (or pessimistic), particularly - what I meant was, whatever the deal is, it will be decided in a late night session at the last possible moment.
and the 'deal' will have no substantive content whatever, as you know
We'll see. Of course the renegotiation was always going to be extremely hard, given that the halfwits who used to run the country before Cameron gave away most of the bargaining chips.
What concerns me more is what the alternative will be. The referendum is a choice, not an award of points for how much we like the renegotiation. It still baffles me that the Leave side don't seem to have understood this point.
Just discovered that the new MP for Oldham West has two kids but is not married. Bit surprised UKIP did not try to make something of his 'living in sin ' - having kids out of wedlock etc. It does somewhat undermine his clean cut image and I would not have expected such moral standards to have gone down well with the Asian community - had UKIP tried to make it an issue.
Some would have you believe that the Asian community didn't have the foggiest idea who it was voting for so were unlikely to be aware of what you write.
Just discovered that the new MP for Oldham West has two kids but is not married. Bit surprised UKIP did not try to make something of his 'living in sin ' - having kids out of wedlock etc. It does somewhat undermine his clean cut image and I would not have expected such moral standards to have gone down well with the Asian community - had UKIP tried to make it an issue.
I admire your optimism, but, sadly, I don't think the deal will be worthy of the name.
I wasn't being optimistic (or pessimistic), particularly - what I meant was, whatever the deal is, it will be decided in a late night session at the last possible moment.
That's a bit of a non-sequitur. The deal will be done when it's done, and when it's done it will immediately be announced, but up until now it was an open secret Cameron was hoping for a deal by Christmas.
Excellent result for Labour and a slight move to the centre in the PLP.
interesting for me is the inability of anyone to park their tanks on labour's pacifist lawn. In years gone by the Lib Dems would have been very competitive here but it looks a long road back for them now. It would appear that UKIP look both amateurish and extreme to a large amount of the voting public.
As for the Conservtaives this looks quite bad for Osborne to me. His two themes: northern powerhouse (and this is part of the g. Manc Devo deal) and the new workers party seem to have fallen flat. He has been front and centre of everything since the election. Obviously that is aimed at the stockports and crewes of this world but hasn't got any traction at all here where the Tories have got 20% in local elections.
Corbyn remains unelectable and McDonnell is mad enough to destroy the party but this election suggests labour may have a bit of space to screw up internally and it not be an extinction event like in Scotland. There is no snp in labour england.
The SNP might decide to run down here - plenty of votes for Scottish independence down here.
Richard N/Edmund - take boh your points entirely, forgive me as a Labour centrist if I try to get a little bit of silver lining from a very dark cloud. It does remain interesting to me though how unloved the Conservatives remain. Even with labour in meltdown (and very significant polling adjustments) they are still only nudging 40%. I understand the 'austerity' argument but for a significant part of their potential vote it hasn't really happened. And osborne I think is off putting to voters in his manner and wiierdness as much as anything else - a bit like ed. Obviously he still beats corbyn head to head but I am less certain than I was of another 10 to 15 years of Tory government - there is still a problem with the 'brand'
Amazing that Labour can drop their majority by around 4000 and claim it is a stupendous victory
It's probably because they know something about politics that you seem not to. Turnout goes down in by-elections, doubly so for by-elections in December.
Labour did very well yesterday.
Does that mean a huge amount? Not really. But to argue that it was not a good result is either ignorant or wilfully daft.
Much better than David Cameron's first byelection as Tory leader, too.
William Hague increased the Tory vote by almost 8% in Uxbridge in 1997 again with a good local candidate, he was trounced in the general election
If Labour in 2020 were to replicate the swing Hague got in 2001, the Tories would lose their majority.
Labour need to do a bit better than that. Barring disaster (or SNP implosion) I don't see how we can have anything other than Conservative or C-led government until 2030. The numbers don't stack up as the once marginal seats we Tories won at the last election are now rock solid safe; and demographically becoming safer.
Wrong. The chances of a Labour government even if they won back the 40 seats in Scotland is very small.
However, it would need a very small to swing to have a minority Labour government.
and the 'deal' will have no substantive content whatever, as you know
We'll see. Of course the renegotiation was always going to be extremely hard, given that the halfwits who used to run the country before Cameron gave away most of the bargaining chips.
What concerns me more is what the alternative will be. The referendum is a choice, not an award of points for how much we like the renegotiation. It still baffles me that the Leave side don't seem to have understood this point.
I agree that it is exceptionally hard to get anything out of the EU. What I can't forgive is the woeful negotiation strategy - Cameron should have been clear (in public and private) from the start that he was deadly earnest about walking away unless he got a fair deal for the UK, and coupled this with a credible contingency plan.
If, after all that, it (still) failed then the decision on our future in the EU really would make itself.
That's a bit of a non-sequitur. The deal will be done when it's done, and when it's done it will immediately be announced, but up until now it was an open secret Cameron was hoping for a deal by Christmas.
He was hoping for some solid progress at the next meeting, yes. But, you know, there have been events. That's not the fault of any of the EU leaders, and it's absurd, verging on bonkers, not to accept that it is hardly surprising that things have got delayed.
LOL I thought you were being serious for a second! And then it turns out it was a BBC Question Time audience - for years the sort of "unbiased cross-section of society" who think Corbyn is really a closet Tory.
I agree that it is exceptionally hard to get anything out of the EU. What I can't forgive is the woeful negotiation strategy - Cameron should have been clear (in public and private) from the start that he was deadly earnest about walking away unless he got a fair deal for the UK, and coupled this with a credible contingency plan
How credible would that have been, though? You can either pitch things as 'We're off unless you do X!', or 'I want us to stay, but unless you do X I'm going to find it hard to win the referendum.' It's not obvious that the first is the right approach - you risk getting your bluff called.
The basic problem is that the start position was weak. That's not Cameron's fault.
Point 1: the time when everybody says something is impossible is the time one should bet on it happening... Point 2: Cameron has form when it comes to rejecting a EU treaty after long negotiations...
I agree that it is exceptionally hard to get anything out of the EU. What I can't forgive is the woeful negotiation strategy - Cameron should have been clear (in public and private) from the start that he was deadly earnest about walking away unless he got a fair deal for the UK, and coupled this with a credible contingency plan
How credible would that have been, though? You can either pitch things as 'We're off unless you do X!', or 'I want us to stay, but unless you do X I'm going to find it hard to win the referendum.' It's not obvious that the first is the right approach - you risk getting your bluff called.
The basic problem is that the start position was weak. That's not Cameron's fault.
Anyway, time for bed!
If you think Cameron's renegotiation strategy is flawless then we'll just have to agree to disagree.
It is likely that the "brains" of Downing Street thought that briefing the "terrorist sympathiser" line from Cameron was a no-lose strategy. Let Corbyn and Labour debate on that ground and they can only lose. However it is also possible that they have heavily underrated the sense of fair play widespread even among their own supporters.
In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
It is likely that the "brains" of Downing Street thought that briefing the "terrorist sympathiser" line from Cameron was a no-lose strategy. Let Corbyn and Labour debate on that ground and they can only lose. However it is also possible that they have heavily underrated the sense of fair play widespread even among their own supporters.
In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
That's a debatable point but of no relevance to link provided by CarlottaVance.
BBC QT audience. Biased selection methods for years. Full of stooges and activists. Not representative of anyone. Booing? Significance value of zero.
Just discovered that the new MP for Oldham West has two kids but is not married. Bit surprised UKIP did not try to make something of his 'living in sin ' - having kids out of wedlock etc. It does somewhat undermine his clean cut image and I would not have expected such moral standards to have gone down well with the Asian community - had UKIP tried to make it an issue.
Interesting that it has only occurred to your bigoted small mind that it could be an issue.
It wouldn't have crossed the mind of any right thinking person. You are weird.
You are being your natural abusive self yet again. Perhaps you need to be reminded that Thatcher made her displeasure well known when William Hague shared the Leader's suite at the Brighton Hotel with his then fiancee in 1997/98. Moreover, if at the time of the June 1968 By election - which Michael Meacher lost - the Tory candidate - Bruce Campbell - had had such a background , I would suggest that it would have seriously undermined his campaign.
As I said on the previous thread whilst this cannot be ruled out I think Oldham suggests it's less likely. I'm also not convinced greater profile from the referendum will be helpful to ukip and unlike the scots referendum it isn't something that many people feel strongly about. Where ukip hurts labour is in previously lab/Tory marginals where it has either replaced labour (north kent/south Essex) or split the anti Tory vote. That is a massive problem but not existential. It is difficult under fppt for ukip to emulate anti-Europe/establishment parties despite having the potential for c.15 to 20% of vote share.
Labour's only genuine risk is of complete self destruction which livingstone and McDonnell (if not corbyn directly) seem to be encouraging thru momentum. I don't think the unions will let them do it.
Just discovered that the new MP for Oldham West has two kids but is not married. Bit surprised UKIP did not try to make something of his 'living in sin ' - having kids out of wedlock etc. It does somewhat undermine his clean cut image and I would not have expected such moral standards to have gone down well with the Asian community - had UKIP tried to make it an issue.
Interesting that it has only occurred to your bigoted small mind that it could be an issue.
It wouldn't have crossed the mind of any right thinking person. You are weird.
You are being your natural abusive self yet again. Perhaps you need to be reminded that Thatcher made her displeasure well known when William Hague shared the Leader's suite at the Brighton Hotel with his then fiancee in 1997/98. Moreover, if at the time of the June 1968 By election - which Michael Meacher lost - the Tory candidate - Bruce Campbell - had had such a background , I would suggest that it would have seriously undermined his campaign.
You are right of course - the social values of June 1968 and yesterday are identical.
Yesterday I bumped into our local UKIP parish councillor, who is on the sensible UKIP wing (if there is such a thing). He was wearing one of those flat caps, as per Oldham. He said he had bought it recently because he needed a new hat. Is this a) evidence that UKIP activists all come from a particular demographic b) evidence of UKIP group think c) evidence of a cult of UKIP leader worship c) some sort of sinister take over of UKIP by flat cap manufacturers
Comments
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a18187/here-is-the-soviet-unions-secret-space-cannon/
In the interests of decency, and for laptop users with coffee, I have only posted part of this twitter link.
It does have an example of Danglish, albeit a mix of pure Anglo Saxon and Danish. Even the tabloids here are slow to make use of the word Fkuc (anagram) on a front page.
Perhaps @NickPalmer might be able to translate the headline word for word.
What concerns me more is what the alternative will be. The referendum is a choice, not an award of points for how much we like the renegotiation. It still baffles me that the Leave side don't seem to have understood this point.
However, it would need a very small to swing to have a minority Labour government.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/12032729/Nicky-Morgan-booed-for-repeating-David-Camerons-terrorist-sympathiser-comments.html
If, after all that, it (still) failed then the decision on our future in the EU really would make itself.
The basic problem is that the start position was weak. That's not Cameron's fault.
Anyway, time for bed!
Point 2: Cameron has form when it comes to rejecting a EU treaty after long negotiations...
Me too. Goodnight.
It is likely that the "brains" of Downing Street thought that briefing the "terrorist sympathiser" line from Cameron was a no-lose strategy. Let Corbyn and Labour debate on that ground and they can only lose. However it is also possible that they have heavily underrated the sense of fair play widespread even among their own supporters.
In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
BBC QT audience. Biased selection methods for years. Full of stooges and activists. Not representative of anyone. Booing? Significance value of zero.
Labour's only genuine risk is of complete self destruction which livingstone and McDonnell (if not corbyn directly) seem to be encouraging thru momentum. I don't think the unions will let them do it.
a) evidence that UKIP activists all come from a particular demographic
b) evidence of UKIP group think
c) evidence of a cult of UKIP leader worship
c) some sort of sinister take over of UKIP by flat cap manufacturers