This election has something for almost everyone - Corbynites can crow about the result, moderate Labour and Kendallites have another one in their fold and the Tories can continue to buy popcorn shares.
Yes I was expecting the Greens to beat the yellow peril. I think the remaining Lib Dem vote at the GE was definitely the "core" now, but Labour is taking votes off the Greens.
Green candidate was deaf and communicates via a BSL interpreter. Possibly voters thought that might be a problem for an MP!
I hope this result allows Labour to finally come to terms with their leadership. Whether most of the MP's are now to the right of the leadership rather than to the left as they used to be is unimportant.
This should be the moment of Labour's renaissance. With Osborne's leaving so many open goals if they don't bury their differences and start scoring they wont be forgiven.
Correct. No doubt, every potential Labour supporting segment voted Labour. WWC, Asian voters whatever. We were getting garbage from "disillusioned" Labour supporters in Labourlist [ probably written by themselves ] and UKIP. UKIP is trying to do what they thought the Lib Dems did in by-elections. Diane James, their best spokesperson was terrible on TW BE special with Andrew Neil.
Was always bizarre to me why Mike thought the Libdems were recovering. They had done nothing to apologise or move on from the Clegg years and are now largely invisible.
Well well well. Not just comfy win, but very comfy win. Corbyn might do poorly in a head to hear like a ge, but other than that labour may well be unaffected. It's support is solid, and the government will probably get less popular moving forward.
The country may not like Corbyn but they won't avoid his party just because of him, not yet or with this type of vote at least.
Yes I was expecting the Greens to beat the yellow peril. I think the remaining Lib Dem vote at the GE was definitely the "core" now, but Labour is taking votes off the Greens.
Green candidate was deaf and communicates via a BSL interpreter. Possibly voters thought that might be a problem for an MP!
Was always bizarre to me why Mike thought the Libdems were recovering. They had done nothing to apologise or move on from the Clegg years and are now largely invisible.
Yet oddly, their local election results are not as bad as they could be. Perhaps this is because they're at rock bottom, or because they still have a lot of keen activists locally in many areas. If the latter, that can be the start back.
Yes I was expecting the Greens to beat the yellow peril. I think the remaining Lib Dem vote at the GE was definitely the "core" now, but Labour is taking votes off the Greens.
Green candidate was deaf and communicates via a BSL interpreter. Possibly voters thought that might be a problem for an MP!
I really wouldn't have thought it'd be a problem for the most left wing mainstream party in England actually.
OT This story is so WTF, given how many here are pet owners...
One drug which is causing increasing excitement is rapamycin, an anti-rejection medicine used in patients who have undergone kidney transplants and which has been shown to extend the life of mice by more than 25 per cent. If successful it could see dogs living for an extra four years.
Companion animal geriatrics is one of the big areas of research in the field - everything from derivatives of jellyfish for canine Alzheimers through to antibodies for canine lymphoma.
Rapamune is an mTOR inhibitor. A bit meh, to be honest, in humans with revenues of only about $350m and a black box warning. If you are really interested, I'm have dinner with one of the senior executives of the company developing the product in a couple of weeks and can ask about it.
Very interesting, canine kidney and liver disease was a story line in "New Tricks" when elderly dogs were found dead minus their livers, which were juiced to provide a rather poisonous "health drink".
On a rather more serious note, the cost of canine insurance increases dramatically after age of 7 years, by several thousand percent in some cases/breeds. If this drug becomes available, then the market will be huge as most owners will want to extend the life of their canine family member.
It also brings a moral dilemma, will extending the life of the canine have unintended consequences. Even now, I see dogs being dragged around for their daily walkies, who to be quite honest, are well beyond their expected life expectancy, and are obviously not happy with having no life worth living.
I will be honest here and admit I am on number 5 canine friend and have been as guilty as hell of the above. He will be my last, and I don't know what I will do when the time comes. If it is possible, I will be only too happy to try and give him a longer life. As would many, many others.
So what exactly was wrong with the postal vote ? That they mostly voted Labour ?
Diane James said some of the bags were all Labour. Well, if those bags came from Asian localities or heavily WWC areas, they would be , of course. Labour received 62% overall. In some of the above wards, they probably got 80% of the votes.
Yes I was expecting the Greens to beat the yellow peril. I think the remaining Lib Dem vote at the GE was definitely the "core" now, but Labour is taking votes off the Greens.
Question for Greens is whether this is a temp tactical switch by Greens to Lab in order to stop UKIP or a more permanent, Corbyn-related effect.
Just asking the Greens a question is a waste of a question.
I hope this result allows Labour to finally come to terms with their leadership. Whether most of the MP's are now to the right of the leadership rather than to the left as they used to be is unimportant.
This should be the moment of Labour's renaissance. With Osborne's leaving so many open goals if they don't bury their differences and start scoring they wont be forgiven.
Correct. No doubt, every potential Labour supporting segment voted Labour. WWC, Asian voters whatever. We were getting garbage from "disillusioned" Labour supporters in Labourlist [ probably written by themselves ] and UKIP. UKIP is trying to do what they thought the Lib Dems did in by-elections. Diane James, their best spokesperson was terrible on TW BE special with Andrew Neil.
Yes, Diane James looked washed out last night; looked like she needed a good dinner.
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
Was always bizarre to me why Mike thought the Libdems were recovering. They had done nothing to apologise or move on from the Clegg years and are now largely invisible.
Their Parliamentary Taxi is full of the same types who were so comfortable in coalition with the Tories as their vote to bomb Syria showed. Apparently, they also had a 3 line whip !
Was always bizarre to me why Mike thought the Libdems were recovering. They had done nothing to apologise or move on from the Clegg years and are now largely invisible.
Yet oddly, their local election results are not as bad as they could be. Perhaps this is because they're at rock bottom, or because they still have a lot of keen activists locally in many areas. If the latter, that can be the start back.
Outside the sets of locals In May, I'm pretty sure their locals have been not as bad they could be for years.
So what exactly was wrong with the postal vote ? That they mostly voted Labour ?
Diane James said some of the bags were all Labour. Well, if those bags came from Asian localities or heavily WWC areas, they would be , of course. Labour received 62% overall. In some of the above wards, they probably got 80% of the votes.
There is a parallel universe in which Piers Corbyn is the Prime Minister and the turnout in Oldham was 20% because of the heavy snow, due to Jeremy Corbyn's theory on global warming.
The Libdems need to find an answer to the question....
Why should I vote Lib Dem?
Currently there isn't one. Their best bet is. as it always was, to kick the Tory out. But to do that, they have to make a mea culpa for their part in the Tory revival.
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
For UKIP the bad news keeps coming. Getting a tactical squeeze the next time is going to be even more difficult after a result like this. They look a fading force but the referendum gives them another chance.
Apologies for the delay in replying - just got to work. Yes, I'd abolish it. Armed forces and diplomats overseas can vote by post - that's it. If you're living it up on the Costa del Sol and want to vote then get on a plane and come back to vote. My dad tells me that when he was young politicians would drive old people to the polling station. The current system stinks and it needs to change.
Thanks for your reply.
I agree with Richard that abolishing PV would be going too far. I used PV - albeit reluctantly - when I had to go to Germany for a wedding during an election. A good friend of mine is disabled and uses her PV. And what about people in hospital and others temporarily incapacitated or (as Richard says) away on business or work?
The PV system has been abused in some cases, but worse is the effect that accusations of abuse have on the electoral system. IVR has been brought in to try to fix some of the problems, but I fear not enough to regain confidence in the system.
As is often the case, Richard might have come up with a workable way forward on this (even if it is technically a move backwards). But don't hold your breath on it being implemented: there were enough howls of anger from Labour about the utterly sensible move to IVR.
The Last need to find an answer to the question....
Why should I vote Lib Dem?
Currently there isn't one. Their best bet is. as it always was, to kick the Tory out. But to do that, they have to make a mea culpa for their part in the Tory revival.
same problem to the letter that Lab had pre-Jezza.
ofc Jezza was not exactly the answer that everyone had expected, still less wanted.
The UKIP reaction to their defeat shows I was wrong to want them to win. And given that reaction and who the party's agent was/is (?) for Oldham it's hard to believe that sending out a van to blare White Christmas around the constituency was entirely innocent. So I'm actually glad they did so poorly - and they really did. The party's leadership has a lot of thinking to do. The left leaning white working class may not like Corbyn Labour but that does not necessarily mean it will support a party that is further to the right than the Tories.
Corbyn is certainly strengthened by the result and that is a matter of great regret. On the plus side Labour get someone in the Commons who is grounded, smart and on the party's sane wing. That's good news.
This is a wonderful result for the Tories. They really could not have hoped for this result.
The coverage of Oldham this morning on Sky has been dominated by Nigel's outburst - followed by a lot of comment about Labour activists bullying/police protection for Labour MP and staff from their own side/Corbyn asking activists not to threaten others - plus hilarious intvs with Left Unity.
Even the casual non-political person can't fail to notice this drip drip. The Left's PR is in the bog here.
OT This story is so WTF, given how many here are pet owners...
One drug which is causing increasing excitement is rapamycin, an anti-rejection medicine used in patients who have undergone kidney transplants and which has been shown to extend the life of mice by more than 25 per cent. If successful it could see dogs living for an extra four years.
Companion animal geriatrics is one of the big areas of research in the field - everything from derivatives of jellyfish for canine Alzheimers through to antibodies for canine lymphoma.
Rapamune is an mTOR inhibitor. A bit meh, to be honest, in humans with revenues of only about $350m and a black box warning. If you are really interested, I'm have dinner with one of the senior executives of the company developing the product in a couple of weeks and can ask about it.
Very interesting, canine kidney and liver disease was a story line in "New Tricks" when elderly dogs were found dead minus their livers, which were juiced to provide a rather poisonous "health drink".
On a rather more serious note, the cost of canine insurance increases dramatically after age of 7 years, by several thousand percent in some cases/breeds. If this drug becomes available, then the market will be huge as most owners will want to extend the life of their canine family member.
It also brings a moral dilemma, will extending the life of the canine have unintended consequences. Even now, I see dogs being dragged around for their daily walkies, who to be quite honest, are well beyond their expected life expectancy, and are obviously not happy with having no life worth living.
I will be honest here and admit I am on number 5 canine friend and have been as guilty as hell of the above. He will be my last, and I don't know what I will do when the time comes. If it is possible, I will be only too happy to try and give him a longer life. As would many, many others.
My wonderful companion of a dog is now 15 and we are managing his decline. His bones are aged, but he still has a great appetite, still plays with his toys and still enjoys sniffing the doggie newspaper as he ambles rather than walks.
He'll let me know when it is time, but I suspect this will be his last Christmas of gleefully trashing the wrapping paper. Gonna hurt like hell when he goes, but I wouldn't prolong it for a day to be selfish.
'Their Parliamentary Taxi is full of the same types who were so comfortable in coalition with the Tories as their vote to bomb Syria showed. Apparently, they also had a 3 line whip ! "
A suicidal decision which was their last and only chance to show they aren't Tories in disguise. I noticed that their only credible MP Norman Lamb defied the whip
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
Labour GTOV operation presumably. "Have you posted your vote?", "No mate I forgot", "Don't worry we can hand it in for you"
It's a no change result from May, with only the parties of the two main protagonists taking an interest.
Labour votes 17209 - (May 23630) = 72.8% of May Turnout UKIP votes 6487 - (May 8892) = 72.9% of May Turnout
Both parties' vote did the same as May. They achieved improved vote share primarily because the Tories simply could not be bothered (31.7% of May Turnout).
The Libs held 64.4% of May vote, which is better than the Tories and Greens, and considering they weren't a real player in this.
The coverage of Oldham this morning on Sky has been dominated by Nigel's outburst - followed by a lot of comment about Labour activists bullying/police protection for Labour MP and staff from their own side/Corbyn asking activists not to threaten others - plus hilarious intvs with Left Unity.
Even the casual non-political person can't fail to notice this drip drip. The Left's PR is in the bog here.
Surely if anyone notices anything, which I doubt, it will be that Labour won big.
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
Labour GTOV operation presumably. "Have you posted your vote?", "No mate I forgot", "Don't worry we can hand it in for you"
That would be illegal
21. It is absolutely clear that anyone acting on behalf of a party or campaign should not solicit the collection of any ballot paper. Wherever practical, the voter should be encouraged to post or deliver the completed ballot paper themselves.
Dylan Sharpe Tom Watson very strong on Momentum: "they look like a but of a rabble... they're an irrelevance" says Ken Livingstone is "getting on a bit"
One lesson I need to take from this is that UKIP don't actually try to manage expectations (in the sense of slightly downplaying prospects so the result looks better). They try instead to create the impression of momentum. It may or may not be there.
The coverage of Oldham this morning on Sky has been dominated by Nigel's outburst - followed by a lot of comment about Labour activists bullying/police protection for Labour MP and staff from their own side/Corbyn asking activists not to threaten others - plus hilarious intvs with Left Unity.
Even the casual non-political person can't fail to notice this drip drip. The Left's PR is in the bog here.
Surely if anyone notices anything, which I doubt, it will be that Labour won big.
Yep. And that opponents are making accusations, but people expect that, even if in actuality such talk is rare than they think.
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
Playing Sherlock, a couple of thousand postal votes handed in on polling day, which Farage implies as originating from one part of the community on the morning after we vote for airstrikes in Syria.
If McMahon voted for Liz Kendall, doesn't that make him a Tory? Why are Labour so jubilant?
A thumping win, and it should allow Corbyn to make his mark on the party. Nuttall looked a bit upset last night. Mostly sour grapes, but Governments only bring in electoral changes that benefit them. Tony brought in the changes to PV, so it was hardly likely to help other parties.
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
I thought the turnout was .......40% !
In any case, if someone registered for PV leaves it too late, he/she is entitled to go to the polling station and leave their envelope as there would not be a ballot paper for them.
The coverage of Oldham this morning on Sky has been dominated by Nigel's outburst - followed by a lot of comment about Labour activists bullying/police protection for Labour MP and staff from their own side/Corbyn asking activists not to threaten others - plus hilarious intvs with Left Unity.
Even the casual non-political person can't fail to notice this drip drip. The Left's PR is in the bog here.
There's certainly an element of being a bad loser about UKIP's response but there's also a element of truth in it.
And for Labour to be increasingly associated with dubious postal votes being harvested by Muslim 'Community Leaders' will be severely bad for it.
Take a look at May's results in the Hindu / Jewish areas of Harow - Hendon - Finchley as an example.
In the Corbyn era. the Libdems should have gone for Lamb. Farron can't stand out in the way he might have done against a conventional suit. If Lamb could have apologised for the coalition he might have been on to something.
Among the losers are the various members of the press commentariat who traipsed round Oldham West and reported back their conventional wisdoms. None of them sniffed out a Labour landslide. Quite the reverse.
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
Playing Sherlock, a couple of thousand postal votes handed in on polling day, which Farage implies as originating from one part of the community on the morning after we vote for airstrikes in Syria.
But those on PV are allowed to take their envelope to the Polling Station if they think they have missed their "last post". There would have been no ballot paper for them.
The UKIP reaction to their defeat shows I was wrong to want them to win. And given that reaction and who the party's agent was/is (?) for Oldham it's hard to believe that sending out a van to blare White Christmas around the constituency was entirely innocent. So I'm actually glad they did so poorly - and they really did. The party's leadership has a lot of thinking to do. The left leaning white working class may not like Corbyn Labour but that does not necessarily mean it will support a party that is further to the right than the Tories.
Corbyn is certainly strengthened by the result and that is a matter of great regret. On the plus side Labour get someone in the Commons who is grounded, smart and on the party's sane wing. That's good news.
This is a wonderful result for the Tories. They really could not have hoped for this result.
Thing is, did UKIP do anything different from what they did in H&M?
Among the losers are the various members of the press commentariat who traipsed round Oldham West and reported back their conventional wisdoms. None of them sniffed out a Labour landslide. Quite the reverse.
The most interesting comment was that Guardian tweet about people being there for over a decade, not speaking English but all voting Labour.
If McMahon voted for Liz Kendall, doesn't that make him a Tory? Why are Labour so jubilant?
A thumping win, and it should allow Corbyn to make his mark on the party. Nuttall looked a bit upset last night. Mostly sour grapes, but Governments only bring in electoral changes that benefit them. Tony brought in the changes to PV, so it was hardly likely to help other parties.
And as tim used to regularly remark, the biggest beneficiaries of postal votes are the Tories, so Cameron is hardly minded to fix UKIP's problem.
Plus, what are UKIP going to do when postals are made much tougher, but the south Asian "community leaders" then pointedly lead a crocodile of 500 voters to the polling stations?
1. You will be away on the day of the vote. (People who have jobs that involve a lot of travel, or who booked holidays not realising their local MP would die should not be disenfranchised.)
2. Medical problems that prevent you from reaching the polling station.
People should certify themselves as either 1 or 2 if they want a postal vote. Lying on a postal vote application should be a criminal offence, and the police should do spot checks. A few people getting 28 days for false declarations would seriously deter offenders.
If McMahon voted for Liz Kendall, doesn't that make him a Tory? Why are Labour so jubilant?
A thumping win, and it should allow Corbyn to make his mark on the party. Nuttall looked a bit upset last night. Mostly sour grapes, but Governments only bring in electoral changes that benefit them. Tony brought in the changes to PV, so it was hardly likely to help other parties.
And as tim used to regularly remark, the biggest beneficiaries of postal votes are the Tories, so Cameron is hardly minded to fix UKIP's problem.
Plus, what are UKIP going to do when postals are made much tougher, but the south Asian "community leaders" then pointedly lead a crocodile of 500 voters to the polling stations?
But those on PV are allowed to take their envelope to the Polling Station if they think they have missed their "last post". There would have been no ballot paper for them.
So what is the exact difference ?
Has it ever happened before?
Why now?
Why postal votes if they are perfectly able, in numbers that equal thousands, to walk up and vote?
The UKIP reaction to their defeat shows I was wrong to want them to win. And given that reaction and who the party's agent was/is (?) for Oldham it's hard to believe that sending out a van to blare White Christmas around the constituency was entirely innocent. So I'm actually glad they did so poorly - and they really did. The party's leadership has a lot of thinking to do. The left leaning white working class may not like Corbyn Labour but that does not necessarily mean it will support a party that is further to the right than the Tories.
Corbyn is certainly strengthened by the result and that is a matter of great regret. On the plus side Labour get someone in the Commons who is grounded, smart and on the party's sane wing. That's good news.
This is a wonderful result for the Tories. They really could not have hoped for this result.
Thing is, did UKIP do anything different from what they did in H&M?
Clearly Labour learned some lessons. Takeaway every single postal vote and you still have a 3,000 majority.
Labour sources attribute the scale of the party's victory to the strength of their candidate Jim McMahon, the much-admired Oldham council leader, who had "crazy name recognition" in the words of one campaigner. They also emphasise their performance among Asian voters, who account for 26.5 per cent of the electorate and who shunned Ukip. While the Labour leader has more than passed his first electoral test, one shadow minister spoke of how "Corbyn's office signed off leaflets and a campaign plan that deliberately sidelined him and national politics, and accentuated the local candidate. They know that Jim McMahon was electable because he was a great centrist candidate." (McMahon voted for Liz Kendall in the leadership election.)
Not a great night for the Can't Be Arsed Party - but they still got a stonking swing.....turnout down from 59.6% to 40.3%, so one in five voters in the constituency moved to them.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
Playing Sherlock, a couple of thousand postal votes handed in on polling day, which Farage implies as originating from one part of the community on the morning after we vote for airstrikes in Syria.
If they really sent out a van playing White Christmas, then complaining about postal votes really does look like sour grapes!
Alternatively, playing the song energised people to hand in their PV's!
PS - Have you found the evidence for allegation that I was "cheering the Conservatives copying Blair's policies"? - I hate to think you were talking shite, again.
1. You will be away on the day of the vote. (People who have jobs that involve a lot of travel, or who booked holidays not realising their local MP would die should not be disenfranchised.)
2. Medical problems that prevent you from reaching the polling station.
People should certify themselves as either 1 or 2 if they want a postal vote. Lying on a postal vote application should be a criminal offence, and the police should do spot checks. A few people getting 28 days for false declarations would seriously deter offenders.
One lesson I need to take from this is that UKIP don't actually try to manage expectations (in the sense of slightly downplaying prospects so the result looks better). They try instead to create the impression of momentum. It may or may not be there.
It's a hard balance to get right. Unless you can push the message of "having momentum", it's difficult to motivate your own supporters to get out, and to get supporters of other parties to vote tactically for you.
But if you boast of being just behind and then fall short, you turn a decent result into a disaster.
My take-away from this is two-fold:
1. The UKIP ground game is still rubbish 2. It's still quite hard for UKIP to break 30% 3. UKIP is still relatively transfer unfriendly
I don't know if a different leader would make a difference. Certainly, I think UKIP needs more organisational skills on the ground.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
Who would you like to see replace him?
I've normally liked Paul Nuttall, but he was deeply unimpressive last night.
Oh and something for pb Tories to consider, I'm meeting Dan Hannan later to do some campaigning. I'm not anti Tory, I'm anti Cameron's brand of unprincipled and vacuous govt as demonstrated by his obsequious disciples on here.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
Who would you like to see replace him?
I've normally liked Paul Nuttall, but he was deeply unimpressive last night.
Good question, I'd like to see a Labour type contest albeit not as drawn out. I'm a big Carswell fan but he's too busy, I very much like both Suzanne Evans and Stephen Woolfe.
One lesson I need to take from this is that UKIP don't actually try to manage expectations (in the sense of slightly downplaying prospects so the result looks better). They try instead to create the impression of momentum. It may or may not be there.
It's a hard balance to get right. Unless you can push the message of "having momentum", it's difficult to motivate your own supporters to get out, and to get supporters of other parties to vote tactically for you.
But if you boast of being just behind and then fall short, you turn a decent result into a disaster.
My take-away from this is two-fold:
1. The UKIP ground game is still rubbish 2. It's still quite hard for UKIP to break 30% 3. UKIP is still relatively transfer unfriendly
I don't know if a different leader would make a difference. Certainly, I think UKIP needs more organisational skills on the ground.
In addition; 1) Labour still have a working ground game and level of activists which will make any By-election tricky for UKIP. 2) This now cements Corbyn in place until at least May 3) I think the Tories will be pretty happy with it all. 4) 'Organising' postal votes is vital in any election. (I don't meant that in a corruption way)
Oh and something for pb Tories to consider, I'm meeting Dan Hannan later to do some campaigning. I'm not anti Tory, I'm anti Cameron's brand of unprincipled and vacuous govt as demonstrated by his obsequious disciples on here.
I do hope you campaign like that;
'Are you an unprincipled obsequious vacuous Tory, or a patriotic UKIPer like me?'
There's a danger Labour will now think UKIP aren't a threat to them.
Which would be a courageous move.
A seat with different demographics could still result in UKIP giving Labour a shock. UKIP came too close for comfort in just one of those seats only last year.
1. You will be away on the day of the vote. (People who have jobs that involve a lot of travel, or who booked holidays not realising their local MP would die should not be disenfranchised.)
2. Medical problems that prevent you from reaching the polling station.
People should certify themselves as either 1 or 2 if they want a postal vote. Lying on a postal vote application should be a criminal offence, and the police should do spot checks. A few people getting 28 days for false declarations would seriously deter offenders.
Complete tosh.
Voting belongs to the electorate and not governments and bad losers attempting to restrict and make difficult the exercise of the franchise.
I favour all legitimate efforts to encourage greater participation in the electoral process. The fact that some individuals seek to subvert the process should not provide cover for the rotten borough election luddites.
If McMahon voted for Liz Kendall, doesn't that make him a Tory? Why are Labour so jubilant?
A thumping win, and it should allow Corbyn to make his mark on the party. Nuttall looked a bit upset last night. Mostly sour grapes, but Governments only bring in electoral changes that benefit them. Tony brought in the changes to PV, so it was hardly likely to help other parties.
Ha. Yes good point. Blairite warmongering scum have won the day.
Evenwel vs Abbot in the Supreme Court of the United States of America is due to be heard next week .
It will decide whether American constituency boundaries are based on population (as now) or number of voters.
A matter not without relevance to our own boundary reviews.
Not quite. Here we still have workers knocking door to door to make sure all voters are registered, in the US some states have allowed voting registration centers to be moved to explicitly make it near impossible for some parts of the potential electorate to register.
One lesson I need to take from this is that UKIP don't actually try to manage expectations (in the sense of slightly downplaying prospects so the result looks better). They try instead to create the impression of momentum. It may or may not be there.
It's a hard balance to get right. Unless you can push the message of "having momentum", it's difficult to motivate your own supporters to get out, and to get supporters of other parties to vote tactically for you.
But if you boast of being just behind and then fall short, you turn a decent result into a disaster.
My take-away from this is two-fold:
1. The UKIP ground game is still rubbish 2. It's still quite hard for UKIP to break 30% 3. UKIP is still relatively transfer unfriendly
I don't know if a different leader would make a difference. Certainly, I think UKIP needs more organisational skills on the ground.
I could talk at length with first hand experience of ukip's ground skills and have offered to write a piece on here with no response. I think that's a shame as we could compare parties.
There's a danger Labour will now think UKIP aren't a threat to them.
Which would be a courageous move.
They are undoubtedly a threat, but the seeming UKIP assumption that disillusioned WWC Labour voters will just walk into their arms is also being tested to destruction. UKIP needs to offer more than it does to economically left-leaning social conservatives, and that is a big challenge for the party's leadership.
Oh and something for pb Tories to consider, I'm meeting Dan Hannan later to do some campaigning. I'm not anti Tory, I'm anti Cameron's brand of unprincipled and vacuous govt as demonstrated by his obsequious disciples on here.
I do hope you campaign like that;
'Are you an unprincipled obsequious vacuous Tory, or a patriotic UKIPer like me?'
Works a treat, I expect.
The vast majority of Tories I know are very decent people, the party's reputation of being smug and uncaring comes from those I refer to. If they could purge themselves of those who preen themselves in front of mirrors after winning an election they would win every election, but some people can't help themselves.
Oh and something for pb Tories to consider, I'm meeting Dan Hannan later to do some campaigning. I'm not anti Tory, I'm anti Cameron's brand of unprincipled and vacuous govt as demonstrated by his obsequious disciples on here.
I do hope you campaign like that;
'Are you an unprincipled obsequious vacuous Tory, or a patriotic UKIPer like me?'
Works a treat, I expect.
Reminiscent of the Nat approach, no wonder their GOTV didn't win them the Indyref..
Evenwel vs Abbot in the Supreme Court of the United States of America is due to be heard next week .
It will decide whether American constituency boundaries are based on population (as now) or number of voters.
A matter not without relevance to our own boundary reviews.
Not quite. Here we still have workers knocking door to door to make sure all voters are registered, in the US some states have allowed voting registration centers to be moved to explicitly make it near impossible for some parts of the potential electorate to register.
Yes, the politics of the electoral boundaries, systems and processes in the US are thoroughly rotten, but both sides just see it as part of the 'game' to be played.
We have our problems in the UK with abuses, but its not usually the parties themselves involved - although there have been a couple of high profile exceptions, these are generally exceptions.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
Farage seems to have become very angry. This is not a good look in any politician. Fairly or unfairly the brand has become somewhat toxified and UKIP need someone who can detoxify it. Having 13% of the electorate who love you is no good if most of the rest hate you.
There's a danger Labour will now think UKIP aren't a threat to them.
Which would be a courageous move.
They are undoubtedly a threat, but the seeming UKIP assumption that disillusioned WWC Labour voters will just walk into their arms is also being tested to destruction. UKIP needs to offer more than it does to economically left-leaning social conservatives, and that is a big challenge for the party's leadership.
The Labour 'brand' is still super strong in places like Oldham. I dont really think UKIP is the right vehicle for taking it.
What the situation of it (the labour brand) in the top 100 swing seats is another matter.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
Farage seems to have become very angry. This is not a good look in any politician. Fairly or unfairly the brand has become somewhat toxified and UKIP need someone who can detoxify it. Having 13% of the electorate who love you is no good if most of the rest hate you.
You make an undeniable point, I firmly believe in what ukip stands for, perhaps the messenger needs a fresh approach.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
Farage seems to have become very angry. This is not a good look in any politician. Fairly or unfairly the brand has become somewhat toxified and UKIP need someone who can detoxify it. Having 13% of the electorate who love you is no good if most of the rest hate you.
We've passed 'peak' Farage at the last election. It's UKIPs failure to move on from him which will mean they'll never really be a force at Westminster.
There's a danger Labour will now think UKIP aren't a threat to them.
Which would be a courageous move.
They are undoubtedly a threat, but the seeming UKIP assumption that disillusioned WWC Labour voters will just walk into their arms is also being tested to destruction. UKIP needs to offer more than it does to economically left-leaning social conservatives, and that is a big challenge for the party's leadership.
The Labour 'brand' is still super strong in places like Oldham. I dont really think UKIP is the right vehicle for taking it.
What the situation of it (the labour brand) in the top 100 swing seats is another matter.
I imagine it is poor to poisonous right now. But it will be the Tories, not UKIP, who will benefit from that.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
Farage seems to have become very angry. This is not a good look in any politician. Fairly or unfairly the brand has become somewhat toxified and UKIP need someone who can detoxify it. Having 13% of the electorate who love you is no good if most of the rest hate you.
We've passed 'peak' Farage at the last election. It's UKIPs failure to move on from him which will mean they'll never really be a force at Westminster.
Sadly I think you are spot on.
Hopefully they keep him away from the Leave campaign.
Oh and something for pb Tories to consider, I'm meeting Dan Hannan later to do some campaigning. I'm not anti Tory, I'm anti Cameron's brand of unprincipled and vacuous govt as demonstrated by his obsequious disciples on here.
I do hope you campaign like that;
'Are you an unprincipled obsequious vacuous Tory, or a patriotic UKIPer like me?'
There's probably room for a socially conservative party with an leftish economic bent but Ukip haven't tried to fill that gap. I meet many tribal Labour voters with that view in the NW (Mrs Duffy-type) who remain in the Labour default system. As their social views tend to come out first, it probably gave Ukip the impression they were making big gains.
They could, but these voters tend to be older and more set in their ways and it will take an earthquake or a few elections to change.
McMahon was the perfect candidate for Labour to repel the Kippers. Moderate and "one of us".
But like most of PB, I expected a much closer race.
Evenwel vs Abbot in the Supreme Court of the United States of America is due to be heard next week .
It will decide whether American constituency boundaries are based on population (as now) or number of voters.
A matter not without relevance to our own boundary reviews.
Not quite. Here we still have workers knocking door to door to make sure all voters are registered, in the US some states have allowed voting registration centers to be moved to explicitly make it near impossible for some parts of the potential electorate to register.
Yes, the politics of the electoral boundaries, systems and processes in the US are thoroughly rotten, but both sides just see it as part of the 'game' to be played.
We have our problems in the UK with abuses, but its not usually the parties themselves involved - although there have been a couple of high profile exceptions, these are generally exceptions.
Comments
"I've decided to let Jeremy keep his job"
The country may not like Corbyn but they won't avoid his party just because of him, not yet or with this type of vote at least.
The pcc elections will sh ow us the real impact.
You've got to love the greens
They can't.
Rapamune is an mTOR inhibitor. A bit meh, to be honest, in humans with revenues of only about $350m and a black box warning. If you are really interested, I'm have dinner with one of the senior executives of the company developing the product in a couple of weeks and can ask about it.
Very interesting, canine kidney and liver disease was a story line in "New Tricks" when elderly dogs were found dead minus their livers, which were juiced to provide a rather poisonous "health drink".
On a rather more serious note, the cost of canine insurance increases dramatically after age of 7 years, by several thousand percent in some cases/breeds. If this drug becomes available, then the market will be huge as most owners will want to extend the life of their canine family member.
It also brings a moral dilemma, will extending the life of the canine have unintended consequences. Even now, I see dogs being dragged around for their daily walkies, who to be quite honest, are well beyond their expected life expectancy, and are obviously not happy with having no life worth living.
I will be honest here and admit I am on number 5 canine friend and have been as guilty as hell of the above. He will be my last, and I don't know what I will do when the time comes. If it is possible, I will be only too happy to try and give him a longer life. As would many, many others.
Diane James said some of the bags were all Labour. Well, if those bags came from Asian localities or heavily WWC areas, they would be , of course. Labour received 62% overall. In some of the above wards, they probably got 80% of the votes.
Worried about postal votes though. With them being so easy to obtain, hard to see the heady heights of 80% of voters going for Can't Be Arsed ever again...
99% was referenced by Nuttall.
Why should I vote Lib Dem?
Currently there isn't one. Their best bet is. as it always was, to kick the Tory out. But to do that, they have to make a mea culpa for their part in the Tory revival.
Con -10%
Not quite what the opinion polls are saying.
But Farage has reached the end of the road.
Fortunately Corbyn hasn't.
I agree with Richard that abolishing PV would be going too far. I used PV - albeit reluctantly - when I had to go to Germany for a wedding during an election. A good friend of mine is disabled and uses her PV. And what about people in hospital and others temporarily incapacitated or (as Richard says) away on business or work?
The PV system has been abused in some cases, but worse is the effect that accusations of abuse have on the electoral system. IVR has been brought in to try to fix some of the problems, but I fear not enough to regain confidence in the system.
As is often the case, Richard might have come up with a workable way forward on this (even if it is technically a move backwards). But don't hold your breath on it being implemented: there were enough howls of anger from Labour about the utterly sensible move to IVR.
It will decide whether American constituency boundaries are based on population (as now) or number of voters.
A matter not without relevance to our own boundary reviews.
ofc Jezza was not exactly the answer that everyone had expected, still less wanted.
Corbyn is certainly strengthened by the result and that is a matter of great regret. On the plus side Labour get someone in the Commons who is grounded, smart and on the party's sane wing. That's good news.
This is a wonderful result for the Tories. They really could not have hoped for this result.
Even the casual non-political person can't fail to notice this drip drip. The Left's PR is in the bog here.
On a rather more serious note, the cost of canine insurance increases dramatically after age of 7 years, by several thousand percent in some cases/breeds. If this drug becomes available, then the market will be huge as most owners will want to extend the life of their canine family member.
It also brings a moral dilemma, will extending the life of the canine have unintended consequences. Even now, I see dogs being dragged around for their daily walkies, who to be quite honest, are well beyond their expected life expectancy, and are obviously not happy with having no life worth living.
I will be honest here and admit I am on number 5 canine friend and have been as guilty as hell of the above. He will be my last, and I don't know what I will do when the time comes. If it is possible, I will be only too happy to try and give him a longer life. As would many, many others.
My wonderful companion of a dog is now 15 and we are managing his decline. His bones are aged, but he still has a great appetite, still plays with his toys and still enjoys sniffing the doggie newspaper as he ambles rather than walks.
He'll let me know when it is time, but I suspect this will be his last Christmas of gleefully trashing the wrapping paper. Gonna hurt like hell when he goes, but I wouldn't prolong it for a day to be selfish.
'Their Parliamentary Taxi is full of the same types who were so comfortable in coalition with the Tories as their vote to bomb Syria showed. Apparently, they also had a 3 line whip ! "
A suicidal decision which was their last and only chance to show they aren't Tories in disguise. I noticed that their only credible MP Norman Lamb defied the whip
Labour votes 17209 - (May 23630) = 72.8% of May Turnout
UKIP votes 6487 - (May 8892) = 72.9% of May Turnout
Both parties' vote did the same as May. They achieved improved vote share primarily because the Tories simply could not be bothered (31.7% of May Turnout).
The Libs held 64.4% of May vote, which is better than the Tories and Greens, and considering they weren't a real player in this.
21. It is absolutely clear that anyone acting on behalf of a party or campaign
should not solicit the collection of any ballot paper. Wherever practical, the
voter should be encouraged to post or deliver the completed ballot paper
themselves.
http://bit.ly/1PDcGZx
Tom Watson very strong on Momentum: "they look like a but of a rabble... they're an irrelevance" says Ken Livingstone is "getting on a bit"
A thumping win, and it should allow Corbyn to make his mark on the party. Nuttall looked a bit upset last night. Mostly sour grapes, but Governments only bring in electoral changes that benefit them. Tony brought in the changes to PV, so it was hardly likely to help other parties.
In any case, if someone registered for PV leaves it too late, he/she is entitled to go to the polling station and leave their envelope as there would not be a ballot paper for them.
And for Labour to be increasingly associated with dubious postal votes being harvested by Muslim 'Community Leaders' will be severely bad for it.
Take a look at May's results in the Hindu / Jewish areas of Harow - Hendon - Finchley as an example.
So what is the exact difference ?
Yes. And?
Plus, what are UKIP going to do when postals are made much tougher, but the south Asian "community leaders" then pointedly lead a crocodile of 500 voters to the polling stations?
1. You will be away on the day of the vote. (People who have jobs that involve a lot of travel, or who booked holidays not realising their local MP would die should not be disenfranchised.)
2. Medical problems that prevent you from reaching the polling station.
People should certify themselves as either 1 or 2 if they want a postal vote. Lying on a postal vote application should be a criminal offence, and the police should do spot checks. A few people getting 28 days for false declarations would seriously deter offenders.
Why now?
Why postal votes if they are perfectly able, in numbers that equal thousands, to walk up and vote?
Labour sources attribute the scale of the party's victory to the strength of their candidate Jim McMahon, the much-admired Oldham council leader, who had "crazy name recognition" in the words of one campaigner. They also emphasise their performance among Asian voters, who account for 26.5 per cent of the electorate and who shunned Ukip. While the Labour leader has more than passed his first electoral test, one shadow minister spoke of how "Corbyn's office signed off leaflets and a campaign plan that deliberately sidelined him and national politics, and accentuated the local candidate. They know that Jim McMahon was electable because he was a great centrist candidate." (McMahon voted for Liz Kendall in the leadership election.)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/12/labour-win-oldham-west-election-11000-majority
Alternatively, playing the song energised people to hand in their PV's!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_by-election,_1997
PS - Have you found the evidence for allegation that I was "cheering the Conservatives copying Blair's policies"? - I hate to think you were talking shite, again.
But its not going to happen.
But if you boast of being just behind and then fall short, you turn a decent result into a disaster.
My take-away from this is two-fold:
1. The UKIP ground game is still rubbish
2. It's still quite hard for UKIP to break 30%
3. UKIP is still relatively transfer unfriendly
I don't know if a different leader would make a difference. Certainly, I think UKIP needs more organisational skills on the ground.
Which would be a courageous move.
It came up seriously short yesterday.
Punters take note.
First of all the labour man is clearly and understandably well thought of, he seems a thoroughly decent bloke and good luck to him.
Looking at turnout the wider electorate is absolutely sick of politics, around 1 in 4 even bothered to vote, taking into account postal votes the % of people bothering to leave the house is woeful.
The result will give Corbyn a big boost, he'll have great media opportunities and his supporters will celebrate, why shouldn't they.
I'm afraid that Nigel's time has been and gone, Shane Warne talks of Monty Panesar playing the same test 25 times, the same applies to ukip right now. I like him very much and his efforts have been remarkable, but ukip need a different approach.
I've normally liked Paul Nuttall, but he was deeply unimpressive last night.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/672687202611109888
In addition;
1) Labour still have a working ground game and level of activists which will make any By-election tricky for UKIP.
2) This now cements Corbyn in place until at least May
3) I think the Tories will be pretty happy with it all.
4) 'Organising' postal votes is vital in any election. (I don't meant that in a corruption way)
'Are you an unprincipled obsequious vacuous Tory, or a patriotic UKIPer like me?'
Works a treat, I expect.
Voting belongs to the electorate and not governments and bad losers attempting to restrict and make difficult the exercise of the franchise.
I favour all legitimate efforts to encourage greater participation in the electoral process. The fact that some individuals seek to subvert the process should not provide cover for the rotten borough election luddites.
Humility costs nothing.
We have our problems in the UK with abuses, but its not usually the parties themselves involved - although there have been a couple of high profile exceptions, these are generally exceptions.
What the situation of it (the labour brand) in the top 100 swing seats is another matter.
Also gave Jezza his full backing this morning.
No wonder he never wants to be "leader", he is the bloody leader !
Hopefully they keep him away from the Leave campaign.
There's probably room for a socially conservative party with an leftish economic bent but Ukip haven't tried to fill that gap. I meet many tribal Labour voters with that view in the NW (Mrs Duffy-type) who remain in the Labour default system. As their social views tend to come out first, it probably gave Ukip the impression they were making big gains.
They could, but these voters tend to be older and more set in their ways and it will take an earthquake or a few elections to change.
McMahon was the perfect candidate for Labour to repel the Kippers. Moderate and "one of us".
But like most of PB, I expected a much closer race.