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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an i

SystemSystem Posts: 11,692
edited December 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

This is the result that wasn’t forecast, perhaps Jeremy Corbyn isn’t the voter repellent that polling and commentariat implies. Speaking this evening John Curtice has just said we expect the major opposition parties do well in by-elections like this.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    First? :D
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    David Cameron did not do as well as a 7-point increase in the Tory vote in a byelection until more than 2 years into his leadership.

    #justsayin
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Nigel better be able to back that tweet up, even when Labour were victims of bent voting in Tower Hamlets they didn't come out and say anything on the night.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    FPT:
    volcanopete said:

    A major blow for the PB wisdom index.Could it be PB has become unrepresentative of public opinion?

    Could be.

    I think we're witnessing a polarisation. Labour piling up votes where they don't need them. Probably Tories too. Marginals will be the key, as always.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    First bits of Chris Froome data starting to be released..

    http://chrisfroome.esquire.co.uk/
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    edited December 2015
    A seat UKIP could never win, that's all there is to it.

    Amazing that bookies had it so close when the result was so emphatic, and predictable really.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2015
    Oh and....Corbynism Sweeping The Nation (CSTN) ;-)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigel better be able to back that tweet up, even when Labour were victims of bent voting in Tower Hamlets they didn't come out and say anything on the night.

    Quite incredible, especially as labour would have won without postal votes anyway
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Everyone's missing the key lesson: the LibDems have halted the slide!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    PB Tories 4 Corbyn emergency congress called off. No refunds...
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Khan is value for the mayoralty at evens,

    EUREF Remain is value above 1/2.

    That is all.

    Goodnight!
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    It's hilarious that Farage is so pressed about the result though. May should be a more bigger test; if Corbyn does well, then that's genuine food for thought. Until then, it seems Oldham is out of touch with the rest of the country.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    A very strong, moderate Labour candidate by all accounts, even touted as a potential future leader of the party.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Everyone's missing the key lesson: the LibDems have halted the slide!

    Must admit I was surprised they cracked a thousand votes. The talk of them being oinked by SIr Oink was wide of the mark.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Everyone's missing the key lesson: the LibDems have halted the slide!

    Labour's postal "operation" probably has won me the Lib Dem deposit bet !
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,352
    RobD said:

    PB Tories 4 Corbyn emergency congress called off. No refunds...

    Don't Unseat Jeremy Corbyn Association :lol:
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    I'm looking at the victorious Labour candidate. That is the best-fitted best-pressed suit I've ever seen on a candidate. Well done him.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cameron and Osborne the winners, again.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2015
    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Bonus, former Labour members sulking after Corbyn won the leadership (election data, Dan Hodges) are not credible sources for the insides of Labour.

    Goodnight.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    peter_from_putney said:

    A very strong, moderate Labour candidate by all accounts, even touted as a potential future leader of the party.

    I think he might well be. He managed to dodge an obvious donkey-trap from Neil just now (Benn or Corbyn) and dealt with all the questions very well.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    Jezza lives to fight another day thanks to a Blairite who voted for Liz Kendall. Life is so full of irony.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Everyone's missing the key lesson: the LibDems have halted the slide!

    Yes. They're as dead today as they were yesterday. They are not deader.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Incidentally, wonderful expectation management from Labour.

    So much so that it probably helped boost their own vote in the seat.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    Excellent result for Labour, poor for UKIP - and not bad for the Tories - Corbyn the election winner (tho I suspect it was very much McMahon the election winner)

    Who got closest on PB's "Wisdom (sic) Index"?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,518
    I had to check that wasn't a spoof Nigel Farage account, and decided to do a screen grab lest he deletes those tweets.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    edited December 2015
    It's going to be a bloody long road to power for UKIP if they go up by one or two points at each by-election.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    The synopsis on the first part on Froome is supposedly that his output was the same in 2007 as it is now, but he was a fat knacker and since then he has lost 8kg.

    Lets hope that all stands up.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    peter_from_putney said:

    A very strong, moderate Labour candidate by all accounts, even touted as a potential future leader of the party.

    Yep - he'll be an excellent addition. He beat the Corbynite to win selection apparently. He gets a big tick from me!

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,518
    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent result for Labour, poor for UKIP - and not bad for the Tories - Corbyn the election winner (tho I suspect it was very much McMahon the election winner)

    Who got closest on PB's "Wisdom (sic) Index"?

    I think Michael Patterson, with 65% was the closest to the Labour share of the vote.

    As for the winner, Mark will be able to tell us the result.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,518
    Good night everyone, you've been a wonderful audience.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2015
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    Support for the war fell again after the vote, now it leads by only 9 instead of 17 points, at this rate by the end of next week the public will be opposing it.

    Benn is toast, he supported a position that is very unpopular among Labour members, Labour voters, and soon it will be unpopular with the public in general. He also crossed Corbyn and now after this result Benn has no political cover or political credit left.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    The wider public possibly, but neither PLP nor wider party supported Benn. He may remain in office but not in power.

    It does look that it is vey hard for the marmite party of UKIP really struggles to win more than 20 something percentage, and if that is their ceiling then they will get a battering in FPTP.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AndyJS said:

    Cameron and Osborne the winners, again.

    I think that would be a terribly unwise take-home from this, I'm not sure they'll be happy with this result. Even making excuses re: candidate personal vote and dodgy postals, Corbyn clearly isn't as much of a liability, at least in Labour constituencies, as many have made out. And judging by the professionalism of the campaign the current infighting in Labour hasn't damaged their ability to GOTV.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Is this the first time a by-election has finished earlier than expected?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Goodnight all - thanks for being a decent accompaniment to politics, as ever!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Have to hand it to Labour, they've won that seat well, and convincingly.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    When the Labour victory margin is nearly 40% to complain about postal votes or the so-called Muslim vote etc is utterly pathetic. Labour have won this round pure and simple.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Despite losing their deposit I think this was quite a good result for the Lib Dems.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,817
    How many postal votes again? 7710?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I had to check that wasn't a spoof Nigel Farage account, and decided to do a screen grab lest he deletes those tweets.

    The website "archive.is" allows you to archive sites as they are at a given moment. I have archived Farage's tweets for you. You can find them here:

    https://archive.is/NkrZx
    https://archive.is/UC44o

    Even if he does delete them, he can't delete the archive.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    edited December 2015
    In his first by-election in Uxbridge in 1997 William Hague saw the Tory vote increase by 7.6% (again with an excellent local candidate), in the 2001 general election they were trounced, be wary of reading too much into by-elections held in a party's safe seats, night
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_by-election,_1997
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    SouthamObserver said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A very strong, moderate Labour candidate by all accounts, even touted as a potential future leader of the party.

    Yep - he'll be an excellent addition. He beat the Corbynite to win selection apparently. He gets a big tick from me!

    Yes - Oldham Labour chose wisely:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/labour-announces-shortlist-oldham-west-10375934
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    A source that people on here respect called it as a close contest, and that was that I think
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,518
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/672588753194627076
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    The wider public possibly, but neither PLP nor wider party supported Benn. He may remain in office but not in power.

    It does look that it is vey hard for the marmite party of UKIP really struggles to win more than 20 something percentage, and if that is their ceiling then they will get a battering in FPTP.

    I think Benn probably has plenty of PLP backing beyond those who voted for the government last night. Plenty of Jezza-sceptic MPs joined him in the division lobby.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,518
    https://twitter.com/Conorpope/status/672588042423652352
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    Their hatred towards Corbyn clouded their judgement.

    Goodnight.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    Support for the war fell again after the vote, now it leads by only 9 instead of 17 points, at this rate by the end of next week the public will be opposing it.

    Benn is toast, he supported a position that is very unpopular among Labour members, Labour voters, and soon it will be unpopular with the public in general. He also crossed Corbyn and now after this result Benn has no political cover or political credit left.
    He is, however, a useful idiot for the Tories.

    He will be the posterchild for this ridiculous adventure when it all turns bad. Cameron gets off the hook.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,817
    So, if we strip out every single one of the 7115 postal votes and assumed that they fall 100% Labour and are questionable in their entirety, i.e. the most extreme possible interpretation we still have a minimum 18% majority at the physical polls:

    Labour 10207 (49.3%)
    UKIP 6487 (31.3%)

    Farage to tweet about ballot stuffing next?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Conorpope/status/672588042423652352

    Why, does becoming an MP disqualify him from his post?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    You may have a point. I argued for a UKIP win because all the real data from canvassers, etc said Labour were having a hard time. Others said that Labour would win because the betting market said so. Somebody whose name I forget argued that one should take all the leaked canvass data (without actually specifying how all the leaked canvass data is to be collated). In short: we are not very good at predicting elections (cf the PB Wisdom Index).
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    edited December 2015
    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    Support for the war fell again after the vote, now it leads by only 9 instead of 17 points, at this rate by the end of next week the public will be opposing it.

    Benn is toast, he supported a position that is very unpopular among Labour members, Labour voters, and soon it will be unpopular with the public in general. He also crossed Corbyn and now after this result Benn has no political cover or political credit left.
    I have seen no poll since the vote and even on the one you quote that is still a clear pro airstrikes majority with the public, it needs to be combined with support for the Kurds and FSA but the public still back strikes. Benn remains in post and will keep his powder dry, even IDS got 2 years before Howard ousted him
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Conorpope/status/672588042423652352

    Why, does becoming an MP disqualify him from his post?
    He is a Division 4 Local Councillors member. So will no longer qualify for NEC membership. He can stand again as an MP.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,518
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Conorpope/status/672588042423652352

    Why, does becoming an MP disqualify him from his post?
    IIRC He's head of all the Labour councillors in the country, and that allows him to sit on the NEC.

    Now he has become an MP, he is standing down as a councillor he loses that position, and Labour councillors elect a new leader.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    It wasn't just on here. Journalists from across the board were talking up how close it would be. Polling experts were indicating it will be close. Politicians were saying it will be close.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    You may have a point. I argued for a UKIP win because all the real data from canvassers, etc said Labour were having a hard time. Others said that Labour would win because the betting market said so. Somebody whose name I forget argued that one should take all the leaked canvass data (without actually specifying how all the leaked canvass data is to be collated). In short: we are not very good at predicting elections (cf the PB Wisdom Index).
    The betting markets were also very bad at predicting the result. They were indicating - according to Ladbrokes a narrow Labour win. Nothing to indicated a complete and total landslide.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    The wider public possibly, but neither PLP nor wider party supported Benn. He may remain in office but not in power.

    It does look that it is vey hard for the marmite party of UKIP really struggles to win more than 20 something percentage, and if that is their ceiling then they will get a battering in FPTP.
    The best hope for UKIP is a narrow IN in EU ref and lots of disgruntled Out voters, night
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    It wasn't just on here. Journalists from across the board were talking up how close it would be. Polling experts were indicating it will be close. Politicians were saying it will be close.
    That's what an echo chamber is.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    viewcode said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    It wasn't just on here. Journalists from across the board were talking up how close it would be. Polling experts were indicating it will be close. Politicians were saying it will be close.
    That's what an echo chamber is.
    Yes, but it would be an echo chamber bigger than PB.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    You may have a point. I argued for a UKIP win because all the real data from canvassers, etc said Labour were having a hard time. Others said that Labour would win because the betting market said so. Somebody whose name I forget argued that one should take all the leaked canvass data (without actually specifying how all the leaked canvass data is to be collated). In short: we are not very good at predicting elections (cf the PB Wisdom Index).
    The betting markets were also very bad at predicting the result. They were indicating - according to Ladbrokes a narrow Labour win. Nothing to indicated a complete and total landslide.
    Ditto 2015 GE.

    I swear to god if we want to start making big pb moolah, we are going to have to start bugging party central offices. Otherwise we have bupkiss.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Nige's comments best not mean the Oldham Betfair market is suspended for the next 3 weeks :P
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    HYUFD said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    My 4 takes on the result:

    1. Hilary Benn is toast.
    2. The media and pundits should stop listening to unnamed Labour sources briefing against Labour
    3. Khan is now favourite for London Mayor.

    And 4. David Herdson will have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat now, as he pledged on PB.

    Goodnight.

    Fact is that the public supported Benn on the issue last night. He is untouchable.
    The wider public possibly, but neither PLP nor wider party supported Benn. He may remain in office but not in power.

    It does look that it is vey hard for the marmite party of UKIP really struggles to win more than 20 something percentage, and if that is their ceiling then they will get a battering in FPTP.
    The best hope for UKIP is a narrow IN in EU ref and lots of disgruntled Out voters, night
    Like the SNP.....
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,884
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    Has PB become an echo chamber? The noises posted here from the campaign all indicated at least a close contest if not a possible UKIP win.

    Was this because of selective reporting of tweets or was the message really that one sided in the general media outside of what was reported here?

    It wasn't just on here. Journalists from across the board were talking up how close it would be. Polling experts were indicating it will be close. Politicians were saying it will be close.
    That's what an echo chamber is.
    Yes, but it would be an echo chamber bigger than PB.
    Problem is, that's not an improvement. Before we were a bunch of self-elected fanboys repeating our opinions at each other. Now we are a bunch of self-elected fanboys repeating other people's opinions at each other.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    The normally sensible Nuttall is all over the shop:

    Paul Nuttall, the Ukip deputy leader, said earlier that the conduct of the election was “an affront to democracy”. (See 00.45am) He made two particular complaints which he said were related.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/dec/03/oldham-byelection-labour-corbyn-ukip-challenge-in-first-test-of-corbyns-popularity-live#block-5660e24ce4b08a7077c935f5
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Why is Nuttal rabbiting on about postal votes, looks like a clear win for Labour without them?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2015
    Pro_Rata said:

    So, if we strip out every single one of the 7115 postal votes and assumed that they fall 100% Labour and are questionable in their entirety, i.e. the most extreme possible interpretation we still have a minimum 18% majority at the physical polls:

    Labour 10207 (49.3%)
    UKIP 6487 (31.3%)

    Farage to tweet about ballot stuffing next?

    Tower Hamlets is a safe Labour area and it had postal voting fraud.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    SimonStClare said:

    Morning all.

    Why is Nuttal rabbiting on about postal votes, looks like a clear win for Labour without them?

    He's also complaining that some were posted early - wiping out the effect of late campaigning - and some were posted late - on the day......Under these circumstances, better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    John McDonnell said last weekend that this by-election would show Labour is back and can win elections again — the result confirms he may be right. But for Ukip, it has proven that unless it can find money and the ability to effectively campaign, it will fail to make electoral progress and is set to be a declining force in British politics.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/labour-wins-oldham-west-and-royton-by-election-with-huge-majority
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    CarlottaVance said:

    John McDonnell said last weekend that this by-election would show Labour is back and can win elections again — the result confirms he may be right. But for Ukip, it has proven that unless it can find money and the ability to effectively campaign, it will fail to make electoral progress and is set to be a declining force in British politics.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/labour-wins-oldham-west-and-royton-by-election-with-huge-majority

    If Labour were reduced to 54 seats, Oldham West would be one of them.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2015
    Goldsmiths' Islamic Society students disrupt human rights activist's speech

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/goldsmiths-islamic-society-students-disrupt-human-rights-activists-speech-a3129066.html

    More understanding tolerant behaviour when somebody whose views you don't agree with turns up to speak at a London University. This is the same uni with the welfare and diversity officer who doesn't seem to like white men very much.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Oldham Council has published a correction saying that the correct figure was 17,209

    http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/797/oldham_west_and_royton_parliamentary_by-election_results
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    Looks like the JIC's Cameron's '70,000' is coming under increasing scrutiny:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12032508/Senior-defence-figures-warn-David-Cameron-against-saying-there-are-70000-opposition-fighters-in-Syria.html
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,916
    just getting up to this. Wow, very surprised. A combination of the Labour postal vote and Tories4Corbyn meant is wasn't close to being close. The one thing we were all right about was the Lib Dem lost deposit!
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    CarlottaVance said:

    Looks like the JIC's Cameron's '70,000' is coming under increasing scrutiny:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12032508/Senior-defence-figures-warn-David-Cameron-against-saying-there-are-70000-opposition-fighters-in-Syria.html

    was there anyone that believed it?
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    It is a bit odd that there has been so little emphasis in the news of the conviction of Oscar Pistorius for murder. It was about the 3rd or 4th item on the news bulletins.

    When the incident first occurred (and the basic circumstances became clear) I thought that there was a realistic possibility (although not probability) that he might be found not guilty on the grounds of self-defence and/or insanity - i.e. in the context of South Africa's high crime rate, he was scared out of his wits that he was going to be killed by a burglar.

    I agreed with the trial judge's verdict of manslaughter by reason of being grossly reckless, and I was surprised that it was upgraded to murder. But anyway.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    Sandpit said:

    A combination of the Labour postal vote and Tories4Corbyn meant is wasn't close to being close.

    I suspect it was
    i) A strong local candidate
    ii) A good Labour groundgame
    iii) An average to poor UKIP groundgame
    iv) People not paying much attention to Westminster one way or the other (they'll next engage in 2020)
    v) The Conservatives not really trying - I doubt very few, if any Oldham Tories voted Labour tactically to keep Corbyn in - if they did vote Labour it was because of the candidate.

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    An excellent result for Corbyn, desperate reality check for moderate Labour MPs. No sleep loss for the Conservatives as it continues the trend of the GE. Labour does well in their heartlands but I doubt if they'd get a similar result in any seat that matters. I'd expect the deselection momentum (sic) to accelerate. Many on the left will assume this justifies everything - NPXPM already sounding almost orgasmic earlier. The delusion continues.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    dugarbandier said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Looks like the JIC's Cameron's '70,000' is coming under increasing scrutiny:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12032508/Senior-defence-figures-warn-David-Cameron-against-saying-there-are-70000-opposition-fighters-in-Syria.html

    was there anyone that believed it?
    If you heard the original Cameron statement it was extremely measured throughout. What we h ave now is the usual anti govt froth as they seek to criticise the govt for things they never said.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    felix said:

    dugarbandier said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Looks like the JIC's Cameron's '70,000' is coming under increasing scrutiny:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12032508/Senior-defence-figures-warn-David-Cameron-against-saying-there-are-70000-opposition-fighters-in-Syria.html

    was there anyone that believed it?
    If you heard the original Cameron statement it was extremely measured throughout. What we h ave now is the usual anti govt froth as they seek to criticise the govt for things they never said.
    I read a precis before he delivered it. I think many people are/were sceptical even if they support the bombing campaign
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    JohnLoony said:

    It is a bit odd that there has been so little emphasis in the news of the conviction of Oscar Pistorius for murder. It was about the 3rd or 4th item on the news bulletins.

    When the incident first occurred (and the basic circumstances became clear) I thought that there was a realistic possibility (although not probability) that he might be found not guilty on the grounds of self-defence and/or insanity - i.e. in the context of South Africa's high crime rate, he was scared out of his wits that he was going to be killed by a burglar.

    I agreed with the trial judge's verdict of manslaughter by reason of being grossly reckless, and I was surprised that it was upgraded to murder. But anyway.

    I thought at the time of the trial that the issue of who was in the toilet was immaterial. he believed someone was there and tried to kill them, so I think murder is correct
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    CarlottaVance said:


    ii) A good Labour groundgame

    suggests that labour are not only about tweets and twats
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,779
    dugarbandier said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    ii) A good Labour groundgame

    suggests that labour are not only about tweets and twats
    Northern Labour.....they have the Council (of which McMahon was leader) - how close they are to 'London Labour' time will tell.....
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    dugarbandier said:

    JohnLoony said:

    It is a bit odd that there has been so little emphasis in the news of the conviction of Oscar Pistorius for murder. It was about the 3rd or 4th item on the news bulletins.

    When the incident first occurred (and the basic circumstances became clear) I thought that there was a realistic possibility (although not probability) that he might be found not guilty on the grounds of self-defence and/or insanity - i.e. in the context of South Africa's high crime rate, he was scared out of his wits that he was going to be killed by a burglar.

    I agreed with the trial judge's verdict of manslaughter by reason of being grossly reckless, and I was surprised that it was upgraded to murder. But anyway.

    I thought at the time of the trial that the issue of who was in the toilet was immaterial. he believed someone was there and tried to kill them, so I think murder is correct
    dugarbandier said:

    JohnLoony said:

    It is a bit odd that there has been so little emphasis in the news of the conviction of Oscar Pistorius for murder. It was about the 3rd or 4th item on the news bulletins.

    When the incident first occurred (and the basic circumstances became clear) I thought that there was a realistic possibility (although not probability) that he might be found not guilty on the grounds of self-defence and/or insanity - i.e. in the context of South Africa's high crime rate, he was scared out of his wits that he was going to be killed by a burglar.

    I agreed with the trial judge's verdict of manslaughter by reason of being grossly reckless, and I was surprised that it was upgraded to murder. But anyway.

    I thought at the time of the trial that the issue of who was in the toilet was immaterial. he believed someone was there and tried to kill them, so I think murder is correct
    It is indeed immaterial who the person in the bathroom was, and that fact is not relevant to anything I wrote.

    Anyway, the most significant bits of the judgment seem to be paragraphs 38 to 41, and 49 to 53 (essentially, that the judge ignored the evidence of what damage the bullets would inevitably do):

    http://justpaste.it/pf6e
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited December 2015
    JohnLoony said:


    It is indeed immaterial who the person in the bathroom was, and that fact is not relevant to anything I wrote.

    Anyway, the most significant bits of the judgment seem to be paragraphs 38 to 41, and 49 to 53 (essentially, that the judge ignored the evidence of what damage the bullets would inevitably do):

    http://justpaste.it/pf6e

    Yes, sorry, I was thinking of the amount of time spent in the trial on whether he truly believed an intruder was there, rather than what you wrote.

    thanks for the link to the judgement
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Goldsmiths' Islamic Society students disrupt human rights activist's speech

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/goldsmiths-islamic-society-students-disrupt-human-rights-activists-speech-a3129066.html

    More understanding tolerant behaviour when somebody whose views you don't agree with turns up to speak at a London University. This is the same uni with the welfare and diversity officer who doesn't seem to like white men very much.

    From the description Goldsmiths did not do badly. The speaker spoke; protestors protested, and security evicted some when the talk was disrupted. Free speech on both sides was served.

    University Islamic Societies are often pretty unpleasant organisations and well worth our spooks interest.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That's a very solid result indeed for Labour. No one knew anything, there was loads of herding and the result was unexpected by everyone.

    Educational.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Sad for Jane. Not sad for UKIP. Farage's comments are odious. Suspect some Tories went Labour to make sure UKIP lost. However, possibly also Tory government is losing support.
    I'm not a Labour supporter, but Jim McMahon seems like a reasonable bloke who will represent his constituents as he should.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,014
    Pro_Rata said:

    So, if we strip out every single one of the 7115 postal votes and assumed that they fall 100% Labour and are questionable in their entirety, i.e. the most extreme possible interpretation we still have a minimum 18% majority at the physical polls:

    Labour 10207 (49.3%)
    UKIP 6487 (31.3%)

    Farage to tweet about ballot stuffing next?

    But surely if the Labour postal voting operation were to be shown to be electoral misconduct, the result would be declared null and void. And it would be a huge scandal. However I doubt UKIP has sufficient evidence to get a formal investigation.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,014
    MrsB said:

    Sad for Jane. Not sad for UKIP. Farage's comments are odious. Suspect some Tories went Labour to make sure UKIP lost. However, possibly also Tory government is losing support.
    I'm not a Labour supporter, but Jim McMahon seems like a reasonable bloke who will represent his constituents as he should.

    I agree with you on McMahon. But what exactly is odious about challenging an election if you think misconduct has occurred? Of course I hope UKIP actually have the evidence to mount a formal challenge.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    JohnLilburne said:

    MrsB said:

    Sad for Jane. Not sad for UKIP. Farage's comments are odious. Suspect some Tories went Labour to make sure UKIP lost. However, possibly also Tory government is losing support.
    I'm not a Labour supporter, but Jim McMahon seems like a reasonable bloke who will represent his constituents as he should.

    I agree with you on McMahon. But what exactly is odious about challenging an election if you think misconduct has occurred? Of course I hope UKIP actually have the evidence to mount a formal challenge.
    Do you not think it is odious to suggest that postal voter fraud is so widespread in the Asian community (that was what he was doing) that it swung the result, when the fact is that the Labour majority was considerably larger than the entire postal vote? Nuttall's nonsense on postal voting takes the biscuit. FIrst he says it distorted the result (which would have seen the same winner without postal votes) and then he says it is unfair to have postal votes because the people who run the council know where their postal voters are!!! What he means is, it is unfair because Labour have a better ground operation. It is open to UKIP to run a better ground operation themselves and find out where their own postal voters are. They have access to the same electoral roll Labour do.

    None of that is to say that postal vote fraud does not exist. I'm sure it does. But UKIP's reaction to the result shows their leadership to be a bunch of sore losers looking for someone else to blame and still delusional about their electability. They would be better off working harder to get FPTP abolished. That's their real problem - and the real problem for all the parties except Labour and Conservatives. Which is why it will never happen. Why would turkesy vote for Christmas?


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