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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On by-election day there’s a new favourite in the race for next Labour leader – Hilary Benn
Of all the speeches in the long commons debate yesterday one stands out – the winding up in a packed chamber by “Wedgie-Benn’s son”, Hilary, who is now Labour’s shadow foreign secretary.
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Will he escape from the roof of the People's Palace by helicopter, pursued by a mob of frenzied counter-revolutionaries? Will he be summarily executed by an ad-hoc military tribunal? Is Hilary Benn the new Pinochet? Is Two Twelve (2015) the new Nine Eleven (1973)?
Why would that stop people voting anyway?
IIRC Corbyn wasnt there for the start but slipped in part way through - then gave Benn a death stare throughout......
The odd thing about the explosion of mass communication and availability of information around the world is that it has resulted in a general increase in ignorance rather than a spread of enlightenment.
this applies to all political shades
The Ministry of Defence is expected to give details of what they targeted later today, he added.
Somebody got a late night wake up call...
Lifetime achievement awards and legendary status for yous truly surely await!
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/03/world/europe/britain-parliament-syria-airstrikes-vote.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
Edit. Sorry, I meant;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
PS I would say for most things political, this is not a joke. However, for those who truly want to seek out facts, information and ideas, now is indeed an age of enlightenment. The ease of access to sources is stunning compared to just 20 years ago.
But of course the internet is fantastic for the reasons you mention, long may it continue and hopefully the sources won't be obscured too much by the misinformation and alternative realities
That said, there's some really good data, easily accessible for those who want it. I love the ease with which I can get good quality polling data, along with really good political information from people like Lewis Baston, or on this site, people like Alistair Meeks and David Herdson.
"Syria airstrikes vote: Hilary Benn didn't just look like the leader of the opposition. He looked like the Prime Minister"
Whole 14 minute speech here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2GTNK4VsXs
https://twitter.com/LeftUnityUK/status/672198233431654400
deselections may get less traction.
As for future leadership prospects, I'm much more doubtful. If there's a coronation, he now looks plausible. But I can't see any likely route to a coronation.
https://twitter.com/jasminramsey/status/672279607106740224
On the other hand, the Labour activists won't forgive him from precisely that reason. My Facebook feed this last day has been overly active from lefty acquaintances going nuts over the Syria vote. There is no way they will forgive Benn for this and my impression is that the market has over-reacted and failed to learn the lessons of this last year.
"A quick note on defriending. I have defriended people in the past for posting extreme right-wing views which I find unacceptable and beyond the realm of rational political discourse, who are incapable because of their twisted view of the world of interacting rationally in discussion and who do it not just once (anyone can make a mistake or an ill-judged remark at the wrong time), but repeatedly.
The same goes for people doing the same from the far left, who like to think of themselves as better than the far right but in fact are just the other side of the same coin. I am not interested in ludicrous conspiracy theories; I am not interested in those advocating violent solutions against a democratic decision you don't like.
I am more than happy to discuss issues with people with a different view providing that we can do it honestly and with goodwill and respect for each other. I have friends who between them support Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, as well as those of no obvious persuasion. The interaction of ideas and viewpoints should be educational. The risk for those on the extremes is that they both actively and passively create an echo chamber for their own opinions - by blocking those they disagree with and by being defriended by those fed up with their nonsense polluting their newsfeed - and so feel themselves validated by the seemingly universal support for their opinion, when in fact it is shared by only a small minority and the majority in the mainstream despise their intransigence, their dogmatic approach and their lack of contact with the world the rest of us live in. But that then will be their problem, not mine."
" Pistorius believed Steenkamp was in bed, Nel argued: there was a criminal intent to bring about the demise of whoever was inside the toilet cubicle. "
I hope Pistorius is convicted for this reason
After all of the breathless hype I was vaguely disappointed.
It's quite good, but not the Nuremberg Rally quality of speech that is being sold on here.
Regardless of the speech, and it seems unanimous that it was excellent, I really don't want this to set a precedent and we have clapping every 30 seconds like QT.
https://twitter.com/nydailynews/status/672234341800521728
The section where he describes the contempt which IS has for everyone in the chamber, for our values, freedoms and our democracy was very powerful and contrasts with the weaselly and contemptible justification by the likes of Livingstone of suicide bombers as some sort of martyrs.
UK bombs DAESH = Bad
On the other hand, I guess mainstream opinions could also be self-reinforcing, even if wrong.
(Global warming would be an example, if it were proved to be false. Personally I think it is real)
PP – Tory PSOE – Labour Ciu – Centre right Pod – corbynistas!
R & A PP 28.1 PSOE 21.5 Ciu 20.2 Pod 15.3 Dec 1st
TNS PP 27.1 PSOE 20.0 Ciu 21.6 Pod 15.5 Nov 29th
I'll be putting forward an alternative analogy on Saturday, if Oldham goes as I think it will.
It's nice to be in clover on him covering my various Corbyn exits, mind. Of course they could both yet come in
From what I understand the party were against bombing ISIS, yet Carswell voted for - on the basis that Hillary Benn had convinced him.
But I also agree with @AlastairMeeks that a speech does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic. Nearly 2/3 of the PLP backed Corbyn's position last night (whether they agreed with what might very loosely be called his "analysis" or not) as did (just) the majority of the Labour shadow cabinet. I fear the outcome of this vote is that his position will become stronger, not weaker. He is not quite as far out of line with the PLP as some of us would like to believe.
The PLP had a chance last night to make Corbyn's position untenable. They did not take it. Such chances will not come around too often and the risk is that the sane wing of Labour will be weaker each time that they do. The long march to the cliff edge of oblivion continues.
When Labour finally confronts 'what it is for' rather than 'which clique is it led by' that speech will be a good place to start.
A pity none of the actual mainstream candidates for Labour leadership managed it
Pity the Auld Alliance
It's remarkable how some MPs can always convince themselves that their consciences and careers coincidentally happen to be in perfect alignment.
Yes - last night confirmed my view that true Labour is pretty much onboard with the Corbyn programme in line with the Nick Palmer revelation of a hard left interior following his double rogering at the hands of la Soubry. Put simply a party that could not be trusted at home or abroad.
Next time he gives a similar message it'll be rejected as he's a pro-war traitor who wants Syrian children to die, for terrorists to strike our cities and who supports the secret Bildenberg Group of men (and only men) who run the industrial-military complex in their attempts to take over of the world. (*)
He should have tried it a month ago, and not tied it so strongly to this vote.
(*) Essentially the reaction to the vote I've seen on Facebook this morning.
Next PM has Osborne, Johnson and Corbyn as the top three, can't see it being any of them myself.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader
56 5554Look at Corbyn's face whilst he sat behind Benn, is it contempt for the man's words or just an expression of fraternity?
A leader arrving late during his side's summing up speech, how and why did it happen?
If you have voting policy dictated by someone outside Parliament (or by whips inside Parliament) then speeches like Benn's last night become utterly pointless as does the whole debate.
He's going to vote,
Maybe he'll vote twice;
Gonna find out which way he'll bend.
Andy Burnham is going through the Lobbies
Andy Burnham is going through the Lobbies
Andy Burnham is going through the Lobbies ♩
Authority can drain away even if you have the votes and win a by-election.
Benn set out an alternative view of what Labour can and should be. He challenged Labour to be the best it could be. If they don't take it up, their funeral. But it may be like a pebble thrown into a pond. Who knows where the ripples will end up?
One more thing - last night was not an opportunity for the PLP to go after Corbyn. You can't do that on a matter like this. You have to vote as your conscious dictates. I suspect many Labour MPs who want JC to go voted with him last night. That is admirable, even if I disagree with them.
He even managed to do defection with honour, set a good precedent of resigning his seat to cross the floor.
The dynamic would be very different if he had Farage sitting alongside him in the House, and we would be discussing it a lot more here.
Some say that my party is in a difficult position; I do not think that it is, really. My party leader cannot be accused, like the Prime Minister, of misleading anyone. To my knowledge, he has never agreed to protect the realm, the British way of life or western liberal democracies—and he will not. I am in the terrible position, having been in Westminster since February 1974, of believing that there are Members of the Cabinet who I would trust more to be Prime Minister than my own party leader. We need to get rid of him before we face the electorate and have a leader fit and proper to offer themselves as our Prime Minister. If I was still in the Commons, where I was for 27 years, I would be voting with the Government tonight.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldhansrd/text/151202-0002.htm#15120266000124
Link to debate.
http://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/4e6d04ee-df49-4789-a54a-42f2c7be53b2
Hilary Benn starts about 21.30 IRC.
Spot the Corbyn, 3 minutes later.
Were this a GE, those tribal Labour voters would be focussing on electing a PM much more and Oldham would be a loss.
He wasn't converting any Tories to Trots by virtue of his rhetoric. If you want to see what a real marginal seat Labour MP can do to hold onto Tory votes, look no further than Gisela Stuart.
On Labour I share Southam's pessimism and unlike many on here I take no pleasure from it at all. Last night reminded us how effective and important an intelligent, reasoned and rational opposition can be. The comparison with McDonnell throwing his little red book around is just painful. Our country and this government are both weaker for the lack of such an opposition. It may make the likes of Osborne's life easier in the short run but it will lead to mistakes, arguably already has.
And yet people still say he is a decent man. He seems the opposite to me. He behaves like a badly-mannered adolescent.
Saw Abbott on TV, with a hilarious attempt at spin. Apparently it was a great achievement for the Labour leader to persuade most of his own party to vote his way despite the evil media campaign against him.
Surprised quite how much it dominated the BBC news at ten, but there we are.
If Corbyn wins the by-election then this may be a reasonably good week (the by-election should be a dead cert, but with things as they are, it's conceivable it could be lost. And if it were, that would cause ructions).
Who'd have thought they'd be so frit.
There must be a reasonable chance now of resignations of the Labour whip, if not defections to another party. Doubly so if the by-election goes against Labour tonight.
I suspect his price will now be stuck round about there for a while, so there will be value elsewhere.
Quite a few MPs set out their reasons for voting the way they did - on both sides - and most of them come across as thoughtful & sincere. Corbyn - and his subsequent comments - do not.