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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Next PM” betting would be shaken up if David Miliband

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    The head of Hanover police, Volker Kluwe, said they had received “concrete information that someone was planning to set off explosives inside the stadium” approximately 15 minutes after the gates of the stadium were opened.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,266
    With everything that is going on in Europe tonight it can only be days away from article 5 of the NATO treaty being demanded, not just from France but other European Countries including Germany. Assume David Cameron could commit to air strikes without Parliament's consent in these circumstances, though I expect he would ask for it
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    BREAKING: Police in Hanover have closed a section of the city's central train station as another object has been discovered." #GERNED

    I wonder if the perpetrators are home grown or more recent arrivals.............
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Rooney should have scored there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,243

    pbr2013 said:

    While briefly de-lurking I'd like to ask Lucky Guy where he thinks that the back doors in the Trident system are.

    Hello and welcome - I hope your de-lurk is more than brief.

    I do not have the technical knowledge to even start to describe the specification of what the 'kill switch' might be. However, I think we would all agree that such a failsafe mechanism is technically possible. If it's in iPhones, it will be an option in military technology. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-case-for-kill-switches-in-military-weaponry/

    (snip)
    The argument that because kill-switches are in iPhones, they are an option in the Trident system is rather stupendously hilarious.

    A note for the more gullible reader: missiles and warheads are not iPhones.

    Let's look at this from a technical viewpoint. Firstly, you need the ability to get a signal to the missile/warhead. Whilst under water, this is notoriously difficult (just ask whales). for the purposes of this argument, it can be discounted.

    So it has to be done after firing. This means there need to be a receiver on the missile/warhead, which could easily be found (even a patch receiver would be noticeable by our boffins, and able to be disconnected). Once it *can* be disconnected, it it useless to the Americans.

    Leaving this aside, someone wishing to countermand a launch would have to:

    1) Detect the launch in the four or five minutes the missile is in boost phase of flight;
    2) Makes a decision about whether it is a launch you want.
    3) Send a signal to abort, taking into account Doppler effects, signal strength, the possibility of jamming and other artefacts.

    All in those four or five minutes.

    Once there has been warhead separation, the chances of aborting become even less as there are significant difficulties in getting a signal to a fast-moving, hypersonic vehicle on re-entry (witness signal loss from the Shuttle). Especially when MRV's are used.

    Those are just some of the technical aspects. Let's take another view: unless you are saying the same capability is not on US missiles / warheads, then the last thing you want is the capability for the enemy to destroy your missiles. If you have that capability, so might the enemy.

    The sole security against nuclear missile launches are the guys and gals with the capability to fire them.

    So whilst there may be a kill-switch, it would be rather pointless as there would be no guarantee it would work.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    BREAKING: Police in Hanover have closed a section of the city's central train station as another object has been discovered." #GERNED

    The whole of the EU - the western part at least - is now in a panic. If there had been a follow up attack planned it would have happened in hours rather than days. If there is a second group with orders to attack a western city they will now wait until the immediate bruhaha has died down.
    They have found a fake ambulance packed with explosives - worth the panic.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    pbr2013 said:

    While briefly de-lurking I'd like to ask Lucky Guy where he thinks that the back doors in the Trident system are.

    Hello and welcome - I hope your de-lurk is more than brief.

    I do not have the technical knowledge to even start to describe the specification of what the 'kill switch' might be. However, I think we would all agree that such a failsafe mechanism is technically possible. If it's in iPhones, it will be an option in military technology. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-case-for-kill-switches-in-military-weaponry/

    (snip)
    The argument that because kill-switches are in iPhones, they are an option in the Trident system is rather stupendously hilarious.

    A note for the more gullible reader: missiles and warheads are not iPhones.

    Let's look at this from a technical viewpoint. Firstly, you need the ability to get a signal to the missile/warhead. Whilst under water, this is notoriously difficult (just ask whales). for the purposes of this argument, it can be discounted.

    So it has to be done after firing. This means there need to be a receiver on the missile/warhead, which could easily be found (even a patch receiver would be noticeable by our boffins, and able to be disconnected). Once it *can* be disconnected, it it useless to the Americans.

    Leaving this aside, someone wishing to countermand a launch would have to:

    1) Detect the launch in the four or five minutes the missile is in boost phase of flight;
    2) Makes a decision about whether it is a launch you want.
    3) Send a signal to abort, taking into account Doppler effects, signal strength, the possibility of jamming and other artefacts.

    All in those four or five minutes.

    Once there has been warhead separation, the chances of aborting become even less as there are significant difficulties in getting a signal to a fast-moving, hypersonic vehicle on re-entry (witness signal loss from the Shuttle). Especially when MRV's are used.

    Those are just some of the technical aspects. Let's take another view: unless you are saying the same capability is not on US missiles / warheads, then the last thing you want is the capability for the enemy to destroy your missiles. If you have that capability, so might the enemy.

    The sole security against nuclear missile launches are the guys and gals with the capability to fire them.

    So whilst there may be a kill-switch, it would be rather pointless as there would be no guarantee it would work.
    You don't get to use any software in a classified device without it being examined, line by line. That includes firmware.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,164
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    No word yet on whether the suspicious suitcase at football stadium in Hannover, Germany is false alarm, at least per @AP reporting
    — Tom McKay (@thetomzone) November 17, 2015

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCBreaking: German football stadium evacuated over security alert and Germany-Netherlands match cancelled https://t.co/SycERcZ7UA

    In the aftermath of 9/11 and the London bombings there were tons of false alarms, people panicking in the sights of wrapped ham sandwiches.
    The weekend after 7/7, I was doing a walk in Kent (part of the North Downs Way). I was slightly bearded, scruffy, and was carrying a rucksack. I got on the train in a fairly empty carriage on the way to Ashford, and a French family - I kid ye not with a son dressed in black-and-white stripes (*) - saw me and moved into the next carriage.

    Although I am often slightly malodorous after a day's walk, but it's the only time it's caused that sort of reaction.

    (*) I was rather expecting to see them pick up a string of onions.
    A few days after 7/7 we had to go to the US Embassy in London so my wife could pick up her green card. We arrived at the top of the Bakerloo line and inside the station was a cop toting a sub-machine gun.

    Then we got onto the tube. It seemed like almost everyone had a back pack. It was an uncomfortable ride.

    The security around the US Embassy was incredible. Sub machine gun toting cops check your name on a list. Only after they OK you do you get to go through embassy security. The whole day was quite an experience. That's the last time I was in London.
    I can understand the anxiety.

    I was in London with my rather nervous mother on 21/7. We were on the London eye when it became clear to those more aware of their surroundings that they had stopped loading the following cars. What really impressed me was that those who had spotted it calmly kept it to themselves, there was the odd knowing nod between ourselves.

    20 minutes later by the time we were unloaded there were hundreds of armed police and gos on the South Bank. We just made it out of Waterloo before they closed the station.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 17
    chestnut said:
    My only concern with this is they may well balls up some nice leads that the intelligence services have. If GCHQ have got a nice electronic taps going on chief recruiters, they aren't going to scream and shout about it. They are quietly going to listen and watch.

    Now the Mirror are ringing them up saying, "Hi, Bob from the Mirror here in England, are you an ISIS recruiter"?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    God, or something, has decided to make the EU mad. That is only the first act of the gods.

    https://twitter.com/RichardLionhea/status/666714622070800384
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    With everything that is going on in Europe tonight it can only be days away from article 5 of the NATO treaty being demanded, not just from France but other European Countries including Germany. Assume David Cameron could commit to air strikes without Parliament's consent in these circumstances, though I expect he would ask for it

    France has already invoked the EU equivalent of article 5.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,266

    chestnut said:
    My only concern with this is they may well balls up some nice leads that the intelligence services have. If GCHQ have got a nice electronic taps going on chief recruiters, they aren't going to scream and shout about it. They are quietly going to listen and watch.

    Now the Mirror are ringing them up saying, "Hi, Bob from the Mirror here in England, are you an ISIS recruiter"?
    Very good point
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    According to German news agency DPA, the information about a planned Islamist attack had come from a foreign intelligence service.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeK said:

    God, or something, has decided to make the EU mad. That is only the first act of the gods.

    https://twitter.com/RichardLionhea/status/666714622070800384

    Pretty sure we actually did let in quite a few German Jews.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Yipee!!! 7,000 comments by little old me. Bring on the champaign! :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,266

    According to German news agency DPA, the information about a planned Islamist attack had come from a foreign intelligence service.

    GCHQ ??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Great goal.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited 2015 17
    Danny565 said:

    MikeK said:

    God, or something, has decided to make the EU mad. That is only the first act of the gods.

    https://twitter.com/RichardLionhea/status/666714622070800384

    Pretty sure we actually did let in quite a few German Jews.
    Yes we did. They were absolute enemies of the Nazis, Yet the Chamberlain government put most of the adults in prison camps. Of course in the end they did a lot to help win the war.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Spurs 1 - Spurs 0.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    On topic. Are we really using the moistness, of Hilary's gusset as a barometer of who may be our next PM?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited 2015 17
    @saddened

    surbiton">ICM poll: Page 3 Labour leads in the weighted figures. Page 4. Tories lead by 6%.'

    'The third degree burns you received from the pre election polling seem to have healed well.'


    Whatever you do don't talk about Labour's ground campaign.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,482

    chestnut said:
    My only concern with this is they may well balls up some nice leads that the intelligence services have. If GCHQ have got a nice electronic taps going on chief recruiters, they aren't going to scream and shout about it. They are quietly going to listen and watch.

    Now the Mirror are ringing them up saying, "Hi, Bob from the Mirror here in England, are you an ISIS recruiter"?
    Very good point
    We seem to do an awful lot of infiltrating and monitoring - very little stopping. If our intelligence services can't do that, perhaps we're lucky that a volunteer organisation does.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,243

    chestnut said:
    My only concern with this is they may well balls up some nice leads that the intelligence services have. If GCHQ have got a nice electronic taps going on chief recruiters, they aren't going to scream and shout about it. They are quietly going to listen and watch.

    Now the Mirror are ringing them up saying, "Hi, Bob from the Mirror here in England, are you an ISIS recruiter"?
    Very good point
    We seem to do an awful lot of infiltrating and monitoring - very little stopping. If our intelligence services can't do that, perhaps we're lucky that a volunteer organisation does.
    We don't know how much 'stopping' they do.
This discussion has been closed.