It does not have to, it just needs to do enough to get into the second round with one of the candiaates of the right which is split between the mainstream right of Sarkozy, Juppe and Fillon and the populist right of Le Pen. At the moment the latter is ahead and in a second round they just need to win enough of the middle class vote to see her off. A Corbynite weak left will struggle I agree, but a more centrist left as represented by Valls may still win, especially as the rise of populist parties also threatens the centre right
It's pretty clear that the centre right is comfortable with voting for MLP in a run off between MLP and a left candidate, she would beat Valls and definitely beat Hollande. If it is between MLP and a left candidate then it I think MLP becomes POTFR, if it is between Sarkozy and Valls then Sarkozy wins.
I actually don't see any scenario in which the left can win a run off, not when the fight is going to be over border controls, immigration and terrorism. These are all bread and butter subjects for the right. Especially in France where the left has a particularly poor record on immigration and the EU.
Not on the latest polling evidence where Valls beat her 55%-45%, some of the lower middle class centre right may vote for Le Pen, the upper middle class centre right would vote for Valls. If it is MLP and Hollande then MLP may win, if it is Valls v MLP then Valls will win. Le Pen will almost certainly be in the second round so your final scenario is unlikely but would be too close to call.
Valls is basically a Blairite, he could certainly beat MLP, he will win most of the middle class vote, she would win most of the working class vote, but he should win overall
The latest poll between Valls and MLP was conducted in April. It is horribly out of date. Are you being purposefully thick?
I highly doubt anything much will change, Le Pen may go up a little in the first round but she was already ahead anyway (and some of that increase may come from Sarkozy voters), I doubt many of the 55% intending to vote for Valls in Round 2 will have switched to Le Pen
Since those polls there has been a massive immigrant crisis and a terrorist attack perpetrated by Islamic radicals. Both events will move the polls.
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
It does not have to, it just needs to do enough to get into the second round with one of the candiaates of the right which is split between the mainstream right of Sarkozy, Juppe and Fillon and the populist right of Le Pen. At the moment the latter is ahead and in a second round they just need to win enough of the middle class vote to see her off. A Corbynite weak left will struggle I agree, but a more centrist left as represented by Valls may still win, especially as the rise of populist parties also threatens the centre right
It's pretty clear that the centre right is comfortable with voting for MLP in a run off between MLP and a left candidate, she would beat Valls and definitely beat Hollande. If it is between MLP and a left candidate then it I think MLP becomes POTFR, if it is between Sarkozy and Valls then Sarkozy wins.
I actually don't see any scenario in which the left can win a run off, not when the fight is going to be over border controls, immigration and terrorism. These are all bread and butter subjects for the right. Especially in France where the left has a particularly poor record on immigration and the EU.
Not on the latest polling evidence where Valls beat her 55%-45%, some of the lower middle class centre right may vote for Le Pen, the upper middle class centre right would vote for Valls. If it is MLP and Hollande then MLP may win, if it is Valls v MLP then Valls will win. Le Pen will almost certainly be in the second round so your final scenario is unlikely but would be too close to call.
Valls is basically a Blairite, he could certainly beat MLP, he will win most of the middle class vote, she would win most of the working class vote, but he should win overall
The latest poll between Valls and MLP was conducted in April. It is horribly out of date. Are you being purposefully thick?
I highly doubt anything much will change, Le Pen may go up a little in the first round but she was already ahead anyway (and some of that increase may come from Sarkozy voters), I doubt many of the 55% intending to vote for Valls in Round 2 will have switched to Le Pen
There is a lot of wishful thinking about Le Pen from people who do not like Muslims as an undifferentiated class of people, of which there are many on PB comments. People here are slow to discount her in the way they do other anti-system candidates like, say, Donald Trump.
I wouldn't call it wishful thinking. Hard reality is more like it. If you think that a migrant crisis or a terrorist attack won't move the polls in favour of an anti-immigrant candidate then you are a complete fool.
It does not have to, it just needs to do enough to get into the second round with one of the candiaates of the right which is split between the mainstream right of Sarkozy, Juppe and Fillon and the populist right of Le Pen. At the moment the latter is ahead and in a second round they just need to win enough of the middle class vote to see her off. A Corbynite weak left will struggle I agree, but a more centrist left as represented by Valls may still win, especially as the rise of populist parties also threatens the centre right
It's pretty clear that the centre right is comfortable with voting for MLP in a run off between MLP and a left candidate, she would beat Valls and definitely beat Hollande. If it is between MLP and a left candidate then it I think MLP becomes POTFR, if it is between Sarkozy and Valls then Sarkozy wins.
I actually don't see any scenario in which the left can win a run off, not when the fight is going to be over border controls, immigration and terrorism. These are all bread and butter subjects for the right. Especially in France where the left has a particularly poor record on immigration and the EU.
Not on the latest polling evidence where Valls beat her 55%-45%, some of the lower middle class centre right may vote for Le Pen, the upper middle class centre right would vote for Valls. If it is MLP and Hollande then MLP may win, if it is Valls v MLP then Valls will win. Le Pen will almost certainly be in the second round so your final scenario is unlikely but would be too close to call.
Valls is basically a Blairite, he could certainly beat MLP, he will win most of the middle class vote, she would win most of the working class vote, but he should win overall
The latest poll between Valls and MLP was conducted in April. It is horribly out of date. Are you being purposefully thick?
I highly doubt anything much will change, Le Pen may go up a little in the first round but she was already ahead anyway (and some of that increase may come from Sarkozy voters), I doubt many of the 55% intending to vote for Valls in Round 2 will have switched to Le Pen
There is a lot of wishful thinking about Le Pen from people who do not like Muslims as an undifferentiated class of people, of which there are many on PB comments. People here are slow to discount her in the way they do other anti-system candidates like, say, Donald Trump.
Indeed, she may get 40-45% in Round Two but I cannot see her actually winning
It does not have to, it just needs to do enough to get into the second round with one of the candiaates of the right which is split between the mainstream right of Sarkozy, Juppe and Fillon and the populist right of Le Pen. At the moment the latter is ahead and in a second round they just need to win enough of the middle class vote to see her off. A Corbynite weak left will struggle I agree, but a more centrist left as represented by Valls may still win, especially as the rise of populist parties also threatens the centre right
It's pretty clear that the centre right is comfortable with voting for MLP in a run off between MLP and a left candidate, she would beat Valls and definitely beat Hollande. If it is between MLP and a left candidate then it I think MLP becomes POTFR, if it is between Sarkozy and Valls then Sarkozy wins.
I actually don't see any scenario in which the left can win a run off, not when the fight is going to be over border controls, immigration and terrorism. These are all bread and butter subjects for the right. Especially in France where the left has a particularly poor record on immigration and the EU.
Not on the latest polling evidence where Valls beat her 55%-45%, some of the lower middle class centre right may vote for Le Pen, the upper middle class centre right would vote for Valls. If it is MLP and Hollande then MLP may win, if it is Valls v MLP then Valls will win. Le Pen will almost certainly be in the second round so your final scenario is unlikely but would be too close to call.
Valls is basically a Blairite, he could certainly beat MLP, he will win most of the middle class vote, she would win most of the working class vote, but he should win overall
The latest poll between Valls and MLP was conducted in April. It is horribly out of date. Are you being purposefully thick?
I highly doubt anything much will change, Le Pen may go up a little in the first round but she was already ahead anyway (and some of that increase may come from Sarkozy voters), I doubt many of the 55% intending to vote for Valls in Round 2 will have switched to Le Pen
Since those polls there has been a massive immigrant crisis and a terrorist attack perpetrated by Islamic radicals. Both events will move the polls.
There was already a terrorist attack last year and an immigrant crisis, if you want a ban on immigration as a top priority you will already be voting for Le Pen anyway or maybe shift from Sarkozy to Le Pen, in Round 2 if you are voting for Valls you are likely to be middle class and reasonably educated and less likely to switch to Le Pen, 55%-45% in a second round is unlikely to change much
I wouldn't call it wishful thinking. Hard reality is more like it. If you think that a migrant crisis or a terrorist attack won't move the polls in favour of an anti-immigrant candidate then you are a complete fool.
I don't care if anonymous people on PB comments think I am a complete fool. I do not want to diminish a terrorist atrocity into a game of vote-pushing between columns, but suffice it to say that the worst attacks in recent European history did not push voters rightward.
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Do British bureaucrats really classify Indian people as white? Come now.
No - but they think of them as "not a minority". In this kind of thinking "minority" = "person who is/has a problem". Hindus, Jews, Chinese, Japanese etc are just too successful to "count".
Do you really think bureaucrats believe Indian Britons are not a minority? Do you know any British bureaucrats well enough to have gleaned this opinion, or are you inferring from an American mildly satirical mildly comedic TV show.
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Are you kidding? I was laughing out loud every time a prominent Labour MP lost their seat on Election Night!
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
He's a Pretty Bad Tory...
I'll get my coat.
"Watch your mouth, kid, or you'll find yourself floating home!"
Thames Valley Police detained the woman after the posting - made following the Paris terrorist attacks - said that people from the "Islamic faith" were no longer welcome at the Blinks of Bicester spa and beauty salon. The Facebook postings read: "Blinks of Bicester are no longer taking bookings from anyone from the Islamic faith whether you are UK granted with passport or not" and "Sorry but time to put my country first".
Bicester Village is very popular among Middle Eastern tourists. There are always a lot of them on the train on a Saturday morning when I am travelling home to Leamington. Lots of Chinese and Japanese too.
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Are you kidding? I was laughing out loud every time a prominent Labour MP lost their seat on Election Night!
Yes but you still voted Labour and I believe like back Corbyn, which means you are not only left of PB Tories but the average voter, even if you did find election night amusing
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
'Sam Kiley was saying the opposite on Sky News earlier. He was claiming that basically they asked to do all the bombing runs for the next few days of pre-existing targets that were going to get lit up anyway.'
If you look at the rate of attacks on Raqqa, they do 3-4 days at this tempo and it will be a month of what happened previously. Thats a big uplift.'
Why the wait ?
The targets mentioned on Sky News were presumably know about some time ago, why weren't they bombed before ?
'Sam Kiley was saying the opposite on Sky News earlier. He was claiming that basically they asked to do all the bombing runs for the next few days of pre-existing targets that were going to get lit up anyway.'
If you look at the rate of attacks on Raqqa, they do 3-4 days at this tempo and it will be a month of what happened previously. Thats a big uplift.'
Why the wait ?
The targets mentioned on Sky News were presumably know about some time ago, why weren't they bombed before ?
In terms of moving polls, it is often how politicians respond to terrorist attacks that is significant. When the Madrid atrocity occurred, the PP government - which had committed Spain to participate in the Iraq invasion - sought to blame ETA for the attack and denied any links to the middle east. When it quickly became apparent the government was wrong, many Spanish voters believed they had been lied to and the PP lost the election they had been expected to win.
Logically, you'd expect a right wing candidate to defeat a left wing candidate in any election that focuses on immigration and security, but both candidates have judgment calls to make. If Le Pen gets it wrong it could end up doing her a lot of harm. After all, she will not only be making decisions about immigration and security if she becomes president.
In terms of moving polls, it is often how politicians respond to terrorist attacks that is significant. When the Madrid atrocity occurred, the PP government - which had committed Spain to participate in the Iraq invasion - sought to blame ETA for the attack and denied any links to the middle east. When it quickly became apparent the government was wrong, many Spanish voters believed they had been lied to and the PP lost the election they had been expected to win.
Logically, you'd expect a right wing candidate to defeat a left wing candidate in any election that focuses on immigration and security, but both candidates have judgment calls to make. If Le Pen gets it wrong it could end up doing her a lot of harm. After all, she will not only be making decisions about immigration and security if she becomes president.
Well what did the PP government expect? They lied to the Spanish people, about an extremely serious matter!
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Are you kidding? I was laughing out loud every time a prominent Labour MP lost their seat on Election Night!
Yes but you still voted Labour and I believe like back Corbyn, which means you are not only left of PB Tories but the average voter, even if you did find election night amusing
Yet more racism from HYUFD. Have you not heard of:
PB Tories for Corbyn? Don't Unseat Jeremy Corbyn Association?
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Labour were around 4-1 in Ilford North, I had a bet on here. In the end they won by 589 votes Sunil was one of them !
Lets hope Putin decides to play ball, because he has the manpower and political power to unleash hell on them without having to worry too much about upsetting anybody back at home.
In terms of moving polls, it is often how politicians respond to terrorist attacks that is significant. When the Madrid atrocity occurred, the PP government - which had committed Spain to participate in the Iraq invasion - sought to blame ETA for the attack and denied any links to the middle east. When it quickly became apparent the government was wrong, many Spanish voters believed they had been lied to and the PP lost the election they had been expected to win.
Logically, you'd expect a right wing candidate to defeat a left wing candidate in any election that focuses on immigration and security, but both candidates have judgment calls to make. If Le Pen gets it wrong it could end up doing her a lot of harm. After all, she will not only be making decisions about immigration and security if she becomes president.
Well what did the PP government expect? They lied to the Spanish people, about an extremely serious matter!
I think they were hoping to hold the line until the election had taken place. It was only four or five days away when the bombs went off and they knew they were vulnerable as the Iraq war had always been very unpopular in Spain. But, yes, they lied, were found out and got what they deserved.
In terms of moving polls, it is often how politicians respond to terrorist attacks that is significant. When the Madrid atrocity occurred, the PP government - which had committed Spain to participate in the Iraq invasion - sought to blame ETA for the attack and denied any links to the middle east. When it quickly became apparent the government was wrong, many Spanish voters believed they had been lied to and the PP lost the election they had been expected to win.
Logically, you'd expect a right wing candidate to defeat a left wing candidate in any election that focuses on immigration and security, but both candidates have judgment calls to make. If Le Pen gets it wrong it could end up doing her a lot of harm. After all, she will not only be making decisions about immigration and security if she becomes president.
Well what did the PP government expect? They lied to the Spanish people, about an extremely serious matter!
I think they were hoping to hold the line until the election had taken place. It was only four or five days away when the bombs went off and they knew they were vulnerable as the Iraq war had always been very unpopular in Spain. But, yes, they lied, were found out and got what they deserved.
I hope whoever made the decision to lie no longer plays an active roll in Spanish politics. Not likely, I know...
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Labour were around 4-1 in Ilford North, I had a bet on here. In the end they won by 589 votes Sunil was one of them !
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Are you kidding? I was laughing out loud every time a prominent Labour MP lost their seat on Election Night!
Yes but you still voted Labour and I believe like back Corbyn, which means you are not only left of PB Tories but the average voter, even if you did find election night amusing
Yet more racism from HYUFD. Have you not heard of:
PB Tories for Corbyn? Don't Unseat Jeremy Corbyn Association?
Yes like PB Labour for IDS you are an exclusive and very elite club with an exceptional cunning plan I agree
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Labour were around 4-1 in Ilford North, I had a bet on here. In the end they won by 589 votes Sunil was one of them !
There we go, if it was not for Sunil and a few others in Ilford N Ed Miliband would have had an even more miserable election night, goodnight
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Labour were around 4-1 in Ilford North, I had a bet on here. In the end they won by 589 votes Sunil was one of them !
There we go, if it was not for Sunil and a few others in Ilford N Ed Miliband would have had an even more miserable election night, goodnight
Have we already discussed the big news here today?
Rousey vs Holm?
Quite an unexpected result.
Positive for Rousey is that she's shown she can properly take some pretty heavy punishment, she took a lot of really heavy hits up to the point where her legs finally gave out.
Tactically Rousey seemed to want to beat Holm at her own game (something she's been doing in every fight since she stopped just armbarring everyone). But this time it didn't come close to working, her boxing and muay thai defence is abysmal.
Also, Rousey was really out of shape, the weigh in photos show she has no core definition at all. That explains why in both grapples of the match she was unable to do anything to Holm - her core strength must be a fraction of what it normally is.
If Rousey forgets going for a striking contest and works her core back up to strength she will win the rematch on armbar. If she goes in with anything else, she'll lose again.
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
This matches my personal experience of family and friends who are immigrants - to them, Labour have decided to be the friends shouty wahbist types. They (my friends and family) do not feel that they are listened to.
One interesting phenomenon is recent years is the concept of "real" minorities. If you are Chinese, Hindu etc, the progressive types increasingly don't see you as a minority. Something to do with being too successful. Hence the comedy with Silicon Valley firms full of Chinese and Indian programmers being described as all white. This is increasingly the attitude in the UK among the apparatchiks who run the state. And they are seen to be an extension of the Labour party...
Reinforcing the point that more middle class Hindus and Sikhs are moving to the Tories while other minorities are more likely to stick with Labour
I was the only PB Tory wot voted Labour at GE2015 - however, I'm an atheist, rather than a Hindu or Sikh
If you voted Labour in 2015 I don't think you can be called a PB Tory, atheists are more leftwing than rightwing with a smattering of libertarians
Labour were around 4-1 in Ilford North, I had a bet on here. In the end they won by 589 votes Sunil was one of them !
There we go, if it was not for Sunil and a few others in Ilford N Ed Miliband would have had an even more miserable election night, goodnight
HYUFD shown up for the humorless lefty that he is
Yes will be signing up for the Corbyn army in due course, night
"Two of the Paris attackers – and at least three other people involved – are linked to a heavily-Muslim suburb of Brussels where the authorities admit they have “lost control.”
The neighbourhood of Molenbeek, which has been involved in many previous terror attacks, was last night emerging as a key centre of the plot.
Belgium’s interior minister, Jan Jambon, admitted to VRT television that “we don’t have control of the situation in Molenbeek at present” and said the authorities needed to “clean up” the area."
'Sam Kiley was saying the opposite on Sky News earlier. He was claiming that basically they asked to do all the bombing runs for the next few days of pre-existing targets that were going to get lit up anyway.'
If you look at the rate of attacks on Raqqa, they do 3-4 days at this tempo and it will be a month of what happened previously. Thats a big uplift.'
Why the wait ?
The targets mentioned on Sky News were presumably know about some time ago, why weren't they bombed before ?
The US strike effort was fairly low tempo, the odd burst then a fairly low rate. That has been stepping up but the French effort was concerted with a fully laden strike package that stayed up there.
Some targets in Raqqa have long been avoided, including a site believed to be 'HQ' because its believed prisoners may be held there.
'Sam Kiley was saying the opposite on Sky News earlier. He was claiming that basically they asked to do all the bombing runs for the next few days of pre-existing targets that were going to get lit up anyway.'
If you look at the rate of attacks on Raqqa, they do 3-4 days at this tempo and it will be a month of what happened previously. Thats a big uplift.'
Why the wait ?
The targets mentioned on Sky News were presumably know about some time ago, why weren't they bombed before ?
The US strike effort was fairly low tempo, the odd burst then a fairly low rate. That has been stepping up but the French effort was concerted with a fully laden strike package that stayed up there.
Some targets in Raqqa have long been avoided, including a site believed to be 'HQ' because its believed prisoners may be held there.
It seems like you a suggesting that the French aren't going to concern themselves with "collateral damage".
I think that was something interesting from Friday night. It seemed like the authorities approach was to get into the concert venue asap, knowing that doing so hostages would be killed and the special forces going in would likely not have had chance to carefully plan their attack against an enemy would we willing to blow themselves up.
Arguably this is the correct decision, as less killed than if a prolonged hostage situation had occurred with the kind of people involved, but so often Western governments have paused, scared of stories of the number of people killed during the offensive.
Two notes for the Monday morning readers on here regarding the French and others strikes on Raqqa.
1. Raqqa has been made a target by US supported Kurdish and Arab militias who are trying to advance towards the city, hence the increase in US air effort in recent days. The French strikes tonight were both symbolic in responding to events in Paris but also hitting targets just outside the city...ahead of the path of that militia advance. Thus they dovetail nicely.
2. Whilst the IS threat is multi-headed, and its constriction a long term project, one huge attraction of it to the global jihadi wannabe community is that its a winners movement. It holds territory, operates local government. it wins battles, it has its own economic support base and it clearly likes to reward its fighters with money, goods and unfortunate people.
Take out its 'capital' and in fairly quick order you shake one of its pillars that makes it attractive, as well as militarily break up some of their cohesion. In this, conventional warfare and firepower can have a positive impact on what is essentially a counter-insurgency strategy's success.
As regards terrorists roaming about in Europe who might strike again. one thing that the French are concerned about is IS' inspired attackers definite desire to hit some kind of government buildings or facilities rather than massacre civilians at non-state locations. It is known that has been discussed inside IS training camps as a possible follow up to purely civilian attacks..
How far are the Kurds / anti-ISIS arab forces from Raqqa? As far as I was aware they were still fighting battles to control the borders and a long way from Raqqa? e.g.
Comments
I'll get my coat.
'Sam Kiley was saying the opposite on Sky News earlier. He was claiming that basically they asked to do all the bombing runs for the next few days of pre-existing targets that were going to get lit up anyway.'
If you look at the rate of attacks on Raqqa, they do 3-4 days at this tempo and it will be a month of what happened previously. Thats a big uplift.'
Why the wait ?
The targets mentioned on Sky News were presumably know about some time ago, why weren't they bombed before ?
Logically, you'd expect a right wing candidate to defeat a left wing candidate in any election that focuses on immigration and security, but both candidates have judgment calls to make. If Le Pen gets it wrong it could end up doing her a lot of harm. After all, she will not only be making decisions about immigration and security if she becomes president.
PB Tories for Corbyn?
Don't Unseat Jeremy Corbyn Association?
Lets hope Putin decides to play ball, because he has the manpower and political power to unleash hell on them without having to worry too much about upsetting anybody back at home.
Positive for Rousey is that she's shown she can properly take some pretty heavy punishment, she took a lot of really heavy hits up to the point where her legs finally gave out.
Tactically Rousey seemed to want to beat Holm at her own game (something she's been doing in every fight since she stopped just armbarring everyone). But this time it didn't come close to working, her boxing and muay thai defence is abysmal.
Also, Rousey was really out of shape, the weigh in photos show she has no core definition at all. That explains why in both grapples of the match she was unable to do anything to Holm - her core strength must be a fraction of what it normally is.
If Rousey forgets going for a striking contest and works her core back up to strength she will win the rematch on armbar. If she goes in with anything else, she'll lose again.
"Two of the Paris attackers – and at least three other people involved – are linked to a heavily-Muslim suburb of Brussels where the authorities admit they have “lost control.”
The neighbourhood of Molenbeek, which has been involved in many previous terror attacks, was last night emerging as a key centre of the plot.
Belgium’s interior minister, Jan Jambon, admitted to VRT television that “we don’t have control of the situation in Molenbeek at present” and said the authorities needed to “clean up” the area."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11997410/Paris-attackers-linked-to-Belgian-suburb-where-the-authorities-have-lost-control.html
Some targets in Raqqa have long been avoided, including a site believed to be 'HQ' because its believed prisoners may be held there.
I think that was something interesting from Friday night. It seemed like the authorities approach was to get into the concert venue asap, knowing that doing so hostages would be killed and the special forces going in would likely not have had chance to carefully plan their attack against an enemy would we willing to blow themselves up.
Arguably this is the correct decision, as less killed than if a prolonged hostage situation had occurred with the kind of people involved, but so often Western governments have paused, scared of stories of the number of people killed during the offensive.
1. Raqqa has been made a target by US supported Kurdish and Arab militias who are trying to advance towards the city, hence the increase in US air effort in recent days. The French strikes tonight were both symbolic in responding to events in Paris but also hitting targets just outside the city...ahead of the path of that militia advance. Thus they dovetail nicely.
2. Whilst the IS threat is multi-headed, and its constriction a long term project, one huge attraction of it to the global jihadi wannabe community is that its a winners movement. It holds territory, operates local government. it wins battles, it has its own economic support base and it clearly likes to reward its fighters with money, goods and unfortunate people.
Take out its 'capital' and in fairly quick order you shake one of its pillars that makes it attractive, as well as militarily break up some of their cohesion. In this, conventional warfare and firepower can have a positive impact on what is essentially a counter-insurgency strategy's success.
As regards terrorists roaming about in Europe who might strike again. one thing that the French are concerned about is IS' inspired attackers definite desire to hit some kind of government buildings or facilities rather than massacre civilians at non-state locations. It is known that has been discussed inside IS training camps as a possible follow up to purely civilian attacks..
That threat is now no longer confined to France.
http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/E5A3/production/_86678785_syria_us_russian_airstrikes_624_151113.png