'Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.'
Daniel Sandford @BBCDanielS 44s44 seconds ago Reuters says that the French strikes on Raqqa involved 10 jets dropping 20 bombs, quoting the French Defence Ministry
I confess I am tempted to vote Leave JUST to annoy Cameron, Osborne, the Guardian, the BBC, everyone in the media bubble, just about everyone on Facebook. Etc.
Fuck them. Scare them. Smug bastards.
If I feel this, how many others feel the same? This referendum could easily be *lost*
Fear of the unknown should temper that sort of feeling, but it is dangerous to rely on that. Like some others, I suspect, I was a reluctant remain for a long time, and the fear was working, and while the sorts you list were not instrumental in my changing opinion - that was more the continued contempt and thus lack of any sincere reform being supported by the EU bureaucracy and its supporters - it didn't help any.
Daniel Sandford @BBCDanielS 44s44 seconds ago Reuters says that the French strikes on Raqqa involved 10 jets dropping 20 bombs, quoting the French Defence Ministry
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
There is an assumption that Labour voters are going to break more than 2:1 in favour of Remain. It overlooks the massive concerns about immigration and the patriotic element in the Labour vote.
The polling evidence supports that, most of the 'patriotic', anti immigration working class are now backing UKIP, the Labour vote now is made up of the public sector, the poor and those on welfare and non-Indian ethnic minorities
and 40% of Indian ethnic minorities. Brent and Ealing Southall voted Labour heavily.
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Maybe a referendum for France in the not too distant future?
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabinet and Britain votes Leave. However, my instinct is that the next Tory leader will be somebody totally unexpected and possibly currently quite junior (as in Minister of State). An awful lot will depend on when the good Mr Cameron jacks it in and whether Jeremy Corbyn is still clinging on to the Labour leadership. The referendum's result will matter, as will the state of the economy (make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
What she meant to say was We Are the Nazi Party.
What an exceptionally unpleasant and uncharacteristic comment.
Daniel Sandford @BBCDanielS 44s44 seconds ago Reuters says that the French strikes on Raqqa involved 10 jets dropping 20 bombs, quoting the French Defence Ministry
I wonder what Putin and Obama were having a chat about earlier today?
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Maybe a referendum for France in the not too distant future?
More likely a lot of support for treaty revision from one of the major blockers.
Daniel SandfordVerified account @BBCDanielS Meanwhile AP are reporting that French police questioned and then released Salah Abdeslam in the hours after the Paris attacks
'Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.'
"What I would like to understand is why there appears to be so much radicalisation within the Belgian Muslim community. What are the factors operating there?"
The Dutch also have massive problems with their second generation Muslim population. They would tell you that the common factor is that the majority of the immigrants are Moroccan who have a propensity for violence and lawlessness. But I only know this from what people say in those countries. The problems in Holland are particularly difficult
"What I would like to understand is why there appears to be so much radicalisation within the Belgian Muslim community. What are the factors operating there?"
The Dutch also have massive problems with their second generation Muslim population. They would tell you that the common factor is that the majority of the immigrants are Moroccan who have a propensity for violence and lawlessness. But I only know this from what people say in those countries. The problems in Holland are particularly difficult
The French-speaking areas of Belgium are very economically depressed and by all accounts the people there tend to be rather inward-looking, perfect conditions for disillusioned Muslims to radicalise themselves.
"Two of the Paris attackers – and at least three other people involved – are linked to a heavily-Muslim suburb of Brussels where the authorities admit they have “lost control.”"
That total arsewipe Choudery gets a mention too.
Andrew Hussey's book: The French Intifada is very good on life within the banlieues. There was also File on 4 at 5 pm today on people smuggling and the migrant camps around Calais and Dunkirk. Most of the people smugglers are based in Britain and one local Mayor was effectively saying that he had no control over the camp even though it was in his territory. When the authorities lose control of even small parts of their country like that there are the seeds of a big problem.
What I would like to understand is why there appears to be so much radicalisation within the Belgian Muslim community. What are the factors operating there?
Firstly the authorities turn a blind eye and then the extremist preachers are tolerated and through fear and/ or intimidation the locals say / do nothing.
There was a local elder gentleman on the news earlier saying there had been "problems " at the mosque, but "he didn't want to get involved"
BREAKING: 10 French fighter bombers attack Raqqa tonight
The Associated Press @AP 3m3 minutes ago BREAKING: 4 French officials tell AP police questioned, freed fugitive suspect hours after Paris attacks.
Not sure that to make of this - but will see if anything else is added.
Oh dear. However given multiple incidents, explosions shootings, hostage taking and a football stadium full of fans to safely evacuate after a bombing it is not really surprising.
With the every best will in the world it would have been difficult for the police ....and the names have only become known in the last few hours hence the connection was made.
Last post before I go - thank you for your reply Dr @foxinsoxuk. The stuff on exposure to Western culture is a good extension to my point and I agree with it. My argument would be - and will continue to be - that in isolating Muslims who are interested in such cultural things from our society we are making that more difficult and therefore making the fight longer and more arduous, notwithstanding the internet and the impact it can have (and possibly, is having).
Of course, even allowing for the horror of Paris, the people who also suffer most from Islamism are other Muslims. They have to live with them.
Good night all and have a good week.
I think such steps will be slow and often timid, but should always be welcomed. Compliments work wonders and everyone is open to flattery.
Nadya winning bakeoff was a positive start. Engaged in the contest but not threatened or forced to do anything she was not comfortable with. An excellent role model.
This is all true. But exposure to Western culture does not necessarily mean that the reaction will be positive. The founder of the Muslim Brotherhood spent time in America, was apparently treated well and had a good job and, yet, he came home repelled and it was one of the triggers, apparently, to him trying to create a purer form of Islam which would be superior to what he had seen.
It does not mean that we should not continue trying to reach out and integrate but it's a two way process and we will have to accept that some will react negatively. The very freedoms that we think make our society strong and better may well be seen by others as appalling and negative and decadent, even if they are born and live here., if there is a very strong countervailing culture.
'Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.'
Great idea.
Seconded.
In the UK, I can only imagine the level of outrage from the Guardian and the human rights lawyers fighting over who gets the gig to take this to court.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
I used to like playing Lemmings - we were allowed to play it at school during lunch break
Strangely good on the BBC Archimedes. A computer with a highly functional OS, miles ahead of windows at the time, and essentially at its core, the foundation of all mobile computing as we know it...
Thanks.
(At least for later versions, before the lights went out)
Did you play a part in its development?
The hardware, no. The OS and software, yes. Although I was there near the end, so only a few things that appeared in 'official' ROM images in shipped 'puters. Much of my later work went into the OS on other platforms.
Acorn probably had the best team of hw and sw engineers I've worked with, killed off (ironically enough) by their child ARM. Not that it was ARM's fault ...
In the presence of Gods... I never met a kid who had an archimedes though, who's parents werent teachers....
Turkish authorities foiled a plot to stage a "major" attack in Istanbul on the same day as the deadly gun and suicide attacks in Paris, a senior official has told AFP news agency.
Police on Friday detained five people in Istanbul, the source said.
----
Maybe they will stop bombing the Kurds and focused their bombs on ISIS instead..
'Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.'
Great idea.
Seconded.
In the UK, I can only imagine the level of outrage from the Guardian and the human rights lawyers fighting over who gets the gig to take this to court.
So can I. A few of my very non political mates commented after the foiled train attack shooting. The 3 guys involved got an award by the French Government straight away. They said that here they would probably have been arrested for infringing the rights of the gunman. While that wouldn't have probably happened, it shows the depth of cynicism that some people have for the UK authorities.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
The Arabs (Penguin History) by Peter Mansfield was the first overview I read and, although way out of date now, sets the scene nicely across the whole region.
The Arabs: A History by Eugene Rogan is more recent and probably places more emphasis on the glory days of Arab power, science and learning thus putting more into context the current sentiment of disenfranchisement and being wronged.
For the various modern terrorist factions, I have not looked so am not a good source.
"What I would like to understand is why there appears to be so much radicalisation within the Belgian Muslim community. What are the factors operating there?"
The Dutch also have massive problems with their second generation Muslim population. They would tell you that the common factor is that the majority of the immigrants are Moroccan who have a propensity for violence and lawlessness. But I only know this from what people say in those countries. The problems in Holland are particularly difficult
Question. If a terrorist attack such as the one in Paris was to occur a week before the referendum, would the vote still go ahead?
I think there are conditions in which general elections can be delayed, notably the demise of the crown. Not sure if these apply to referenda.
I think the only reason that an election would be delayed due of the death of the sovereign is if the new sovereign would not be able to return to Britain in time to kiss hands.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Bernard Lewis is very good on the history. But the best books on recent stuff are by Paul Berman. I will go upstairs and get the titles for you.
Police questioned and released Salah Abdeslam, the suspect wanted in connection with Friday's attacks, AP reports. He was questioned when police pulled over a car near the Belgian border, police and security sources told the agency.
A great track! It's a really lively place full of clubs cafes restaurants and one of the most attractive populations anywhere (thanks in part to extensive plastic surgery). If only the Israelis would stop using it for target practice
My Grandparents used to visit Beirut regularly in the early 60s Ski in the mountains in the morning and lie on the beach in the afternoon. I always remember my Grandmother being really upset about what happened to what she considered to be one of the cultural gems of the Eastern Med.
Last post before I go - thank you for your reply Dr @foxinsoxuk. The stuff on exposure to Western culture is a good extension to my point and I agree with it. My argument would be - and will continue to be - that in isolating Muslims who are interested in such cultural things from our society we are making that more difficult and therefore making the fight longer and more arduous, notwithstanding the internet and the impact it can have (and possibly, is having).
Of course, even allowing for the horror of Paris, the people who also suffer most from Islamism are other Muslims. They have to live with them.
Good night all and have a good week.
I think such steps will be slow and often timid, but should always be welcomed. Compliments work wonders and everyone is open to flattery.
Nadya winning bakeoff was a positive start. Engaged in the contest but not threatened or forced to do anything she was not comfortable with. An excellent role model.
This is all true. But exposure to Western culture does not necessarily mean that the reaction will be positive. The founder of the Muslim Brotherhood spent time in America, was apparently treated well and had a good job and, yet, he came home repelled and it was one of the triggers, apparently, to him trying to create a purer form of Islam which would be superior to what he had seen.
It does not mean that we should not continue trying to reach out and integrate but it's a two way process and we will have to accept that some will react negatively. The very freedoms that we think make our society strong and better may well be seen by others as appalling and negative and decadent, even if they are born and live here., if there is a very strong countervailing culture.
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
The Arabs (Penguin History) by Peter Mansfield was the first overview I read and, although way out of date now, sets the scene nicely across the whole region.
The Arabs: A History by Eugene Rogan is more recent and probably places more emphasis on the glory days of Arab power, science and learning thus putting more into context the current sentiment of disenfranchisement and being wronged.
For the various modern terrorist factions, I have not looked so am not a good source.
Robert Fisk's Great war for civilisation is, IMO, very readable and gives a good introduction to the historical grievances.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Bernard Lewis is very good on the history. But the best books on recent stuff are by Paul Berman. I will go upstairs and get the titles for you.
Lucid and witty piece - thanks antifrank. Can't see anything to disagree with at all.
Realclearpolitics reports some surprising polling - Clinton is now streets ahead of Sanders (46-25) in New Hampshire, having been behind in the past, so presumably the debate was indeed the success the critics thought; she's also 22 ahead nationwide. Meanwhile, GOP opposition to Trump in NH has splintered hopelessly - he's on 29, nobody else above 12 (Cruz). Meanwhile, satisfaciton with Obama has surged into positive territory (50-45).
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
The Arabs (Penguin History) by Peter Mansfield was the first overview I read and, although way out of date now, sets the scene nicely across the whole region.
The Arabs: A History by Eugene Rogan is more recent and probably places more emphasis on the glory days of Arab power, science and learning thus putting more into context the current sentiment of disenfranchisement and being wronged.
For the various modern terrorist factions, I have not looked so am not a good source.
Yesterday's Times had a review by Gerard Russell of "The Ottoman Endgame, War, Revolution, and The Making Of The Modern Middle East" by Sean McMeekin.
Rogan has also written about the Ottomans and The First World War, which I thought was an excellent read.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
I'd recommend "Terror's Source: the ideology of Wahhabi-Salafism and its consequences" by Vincenzo Oliveti.
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Personally I think Manuel Valls could get it
Valls would be beaten by Juppe, Sarkozy or Le Pen in a run off. The left are very, very unpopular in France and the terrorist attack in Paris will push people further away from the appeasement policies of the left.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Robert Fisk. 'Pity the Nation'.
It is a bit specific to one country (Lebanon) but since that country is basically a microcosm of just about every religious conflict and disagreement going on in the ME it is a very good way to get an idea about the various myriad factions.
An older book which covers the basic divisions and sects in the ME is John Pasha Glubb's 'A Short History of the Arab Peoples'
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Someone recently linked to a book on the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the years before and during the First World War. Since many of the region's current problems were formed (or at least re-forged) in the debris of that empire, it might be a good start for the deeper background.
He points out... ''The EU is important even if you adjust for the so-called Rotterdam effect; exports destined for the rest of the world which are shipped via Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and imports from the rest of the world which come in the same way. Exclude all exports to the Netherlands from the numbers and it would still be the case that more than 40% of Britain’s overseas sales are to the rest of the EU.''
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
In terms of Muslims in this country, I think it's a mistake to think these young people aren't 'integrated'. They spend all their time on their mobiles like all young people, play Call of Duty etc. They don't drink so they get stoned instead. They don't eat non-halal but that's not particular 'different' these days. I read an article on VICE where ISIS recruits over in Syria were getting care packages of designer boxers and Cadbury's chocolate from their mums. I think the problem is there's no strong sense of purpose, no sense of mission, no sense of meaning in modern British life. They get that from radical Islam.
I used to like playing Lemmings - we were allowed to play it at school during lunch break
Strangely good on the BBC Archimedes. A computer with a highly functional OS, miles ahead of windows at the time, and essentially at its core, the foundation of all mobile computing as we know it...
Thanks.
(At least for later versions, before the lights went out)
Did you play a part in its development?
The hardware, no. The OS and software, yes. Although I was there near the end, so only a few things that appeared in 'official' ROM images in shipped 'puters. Much of my later work went into the OS on other platforms.
Acorn probably had the best team of hw and sw engineers I've worked with, killed off (ironically enough) by their child ARM. Not that it was ARM's fault ...
In the presence of Gods... I never met a kid who had an archimedes though, who's parents werent teachers....
'In the presence of Gods' was how I felt about working there for the first few months!
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Try Paul Berman's "The Flight of the Intellectuals" - on the Muslim Brotherhood - and his "Terror and Liberalism".
But not terribly up-to-date on the very recent developments.
For those try any of:-
The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright (mainly focused on the rise of Al-Qaeda and 9/11) The Rise of Islamic State by Patrick Cockburn The New Threat from Islamic Militancy by Jason Burke
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
I notice some people have been recommending Bernard Lewis but I don't think anyone has yet mentioned what I think is his best book.
'What Went Wrong?: The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East'
Basically looking at why the Arab World failed to continue to modernise after the 17th century.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
The Arabs (Penguin History) by Peter Mansfield was the first overview I read and, although way out of date now, sets the scene nicely across the whole region.
The Arabs: A History by Eugene Rogan is more recent and probably places more emphasis on the glory days of Arab power, science and learning thus putting more into context the current sentiment of disenfranchisement and being wronged.
For the various modern terrorist factions, I have not looked so am not a good source.
Yesterday's Times had a review by Gerard Russell of "The Ottoman Endgame, War, Revolution, and The Making Of The Modern Middle East" by Sean McMeekin.
Rogan has also written about the Ottomans and The First World War, which I thought was an excellent read.
I am reading Rogan's book on the Ottomans in WW1 right now. Exellent book.
He points out... ''The EU is important even if you adjust for the so-called Rotterdam effect; exports destined for the rest of the world which are shipped via Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and imports from the rest of the world which come in the same way. Exclude all exports to the Netherlands from the numbers and it would still be the case that more than 40% of Britain’s overseas sales are to the rest of the EU.''
And steadily falling. Meanwhile our sales to the rest of the world are growing.
And of course there is no reason at all to believe there would be any great change in our trade with the EU after we left. That is just a Europhile scare story.
Lucid and witty piece - thanks antifrank. Can't see anything to disagree with at all.
Realclearpolitics reports some surprising polling - Clinton is now streets ahead of Sanders (46-25) in New Hampshire, having been behind in the past, so presumably the debate was indeed the success the critics thought; she's also 22 ahead nationwide. Meanwhile, GOP opposition to Trump in NH has splintered hopelessly - he's on 29, nobody else above 12 (Cruz). Meanwhile, satisfaciton with Obama has surged into positive territory (50-45).
Yes, it does look like Hillary has the Democratic nomination sewn up and a dream scenario for her would be a GOP nomination battle between Trump and Cruz
Sam Kiley suggesting that French bombing isn't necessary an indication of any real change in intensity of attacks, rather he is reporting that basically the French have asked to do the bombing runs that are usually shared among all "Coalition" forces.
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Personally I think Manuel Valls could get it
Valls would be beaten by Juppe, Sarkozy or Le Pen in a run off. The left are very, very unpopular in France and the terrorist attack in Paris will push people further away from the appeasement policies of the left.
Most polling shows Valls and Sarkozy effectively tied in a run-off and Valls is far more dynamic and charismatic than Hollande and also willing to take a tough line when needed. Given Le Pen is almost certain to top the first round only one of Valls or Sarkozy will face her, if say the centre right split the vote between Sarkozy and Juppe or Fillon in Round 1 and Hollande withdraws in favour of Valls, Valls could well end up facing Le Pen in the run-off, latest polling shows he has a clear lead over her in Round 2, 55% to 45% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
I really don't know why Antifrank is pretending to be an undecided, perhaps it's because he wants to keep writing undecided articles on here. Just man up and say I want us to stay in the EU regardless, it's not a crime or a sin.
Last post before I go - thank you for your reply Dr @foxinsoxuk. The stuff on exposure to Western culture is a good extension to my point and I agree with it. My argument would be - and will continue to be - that in isolating Muslims who are interested in such cultural things from our society we are making that more difficult and therefore making the fight longer and more arduous, notwithstanding the internet and the impact it can have (and possibly, is having).
Of course, even allowing for the horror of Paris, the people who also suffer most from Islamism are other Muslims. They have to live with them.
Good night all and have a good week.
I think such steps will be slow and often timid, but should always be welcomed. Compliments work wonders and everyone is open to flattery.
Nadya winning bakeoff was a positive start. Engaged in the contest but not threatened or forced to do anything she was not comfortable with. An excellent role model.
This is all true. But exposure to Western culture does not necessarily mean that the reaction will be positive. The founder of the Muslim Brotherhood spent time in America, was apparently treated well and had a good job and, yet, he came home repelled and it was one of the triggers, apparently, to him trying to create a purer form of Islam which would be superior to what he had seen.
It does not mean that we should not continue trying to reach out and integrate but it's a two way process and we will have to accept that some will react negatively. The very freedoms that we think make our society strong and better may well be seen by others as appalling and negative and decadent, even if they are born and live here., if there is a very strong countervailing culture.
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
It was also a reaction to the French Revolution, I understand.
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
In terms of Muslims in this country, I think it's a mistake to think these young people aren't 'integrated'. They spend all their time on their mobiles like all young people, play Call of Duty etc. They don't drink so they get stoned instead. They don't eat non-halal but that's not particular 'different' these days. I read an article on VICE where ISIS recruits over in Syria were getting care packages of designer boxers and Cadbury's chocolate from their mums. I think the problem is there's no strong sense of purpose, no sense of mission, no sense of meaning in modern British life. They get that from radical Islam.
I think that is true. For those jealous of materialism there used to be communism, but that is dead now.
On books: I would recommend "No God but God" by Reza Aslan on the history of Islamic schisms and the underlying politics.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Someone recently linked to a book on the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the years before and during the First World War. Since many of the region's current problems were formed (or at least re-forged) in the debris of that empire, it might be a good start for the deeper background.
Though the volume you link to appears to cover more of the period of rule by The Committee of Union and Progress. I had thought Rogan didn't cover enough of the period 1908-14. Given that The Ottomans were hamstrung by 3 wars Italy 1912, Balkan 1, Balkan 2, I would have liked more consideration of the impact on the rest of the Ottoman Territories. The other weakness was the limited coverage of The Collapse of The Sultanate and the impact of The Greek War.
However, Rogan is good on the evolution of Arab moves against The Ottomans from 1915, and the course of the war from Egypt to Syria.
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Personally I think Manuel Valls could get it
Valls would be beaten by Juppe, Sarkozy or Le Pen in a run off. The left are very, very unpopular in France and the terrorist attack in Paris will push people further away from the appeasement policies of the left.
Most polling shows Valls and Sarkozy effectively tied in a run-off and Valls is far more dynamic and charismatic than Hollande and also willing to take a tough line when needed. Given Le Pen is almost certain to top the first round only one of Valls or Sarkozy will face her, if say the centre right split the vote between Sarkozy and Juppe or Fillon in Round 1 and Hollande withdraws in favour of Valls, Valls could well end up facing Le Pen in the run-off, latest polling shows he has a clear lead over her in Round 2, 55% to 45% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
All of those polls were carried out before the migrant crisis and of course before the Paris terrorist attack. They are as useful as a chocolate teapot.
Last post before I go - thank you for your reply Dr @foxinsoxuk. The stuff on exposure to Western culture is a good extension to my point and I agree with it. My argument would be - and will continue to be - that in isolating Muslims who are interested in such cultural things from our society we are making that more difficult and therefore making the fight longer and more arduous, notwithstanding the internet and the impact it can have (and possibly, is having).
Of course, even allowing for the horror of Paris, the people who also suffer most from Islamism are other Muslims. They have to live with them.
Good night all and have a good week.
I think such steps will be slow and often timid, but should always be welcomed. Compliments work wonders and everyone is open to flattery.
Nadya winning bakeoff was a positive start. Engaged in the contest but not threatened or forced to do anything she was not comfortable with. An excellent role model.
This is all true. But exposure to Western culture does not necessarily mean that the reaction will be positive. The founder of the Muslim Brotherhood spent time in America, was apparently treated well and had a good job and, yet, he came home repelled and it was one of the triggers, apparently, to him trying to create a purer form of Islam which would be superior to what he had seen.
It does not mean that we should not continue trying to reach out and integrate but it's a two way process and we will have to accept that some will react negatively. The very freedoms that we think make our society strong and better may well be seen by others as appalling and negative and decadent, even if they are born and live here., if there is a very strong countervailing culture.
Is it perhaps possible that the 'founder of the muslim brotherhood' was mentally ill? Sociopathically deranged? We cannot do much against these people other than expose them for what they are and kill them and their followers as efficiently as we can as and when the opportunity arises. The actions we are taking now need to be intensified and continued until these enemies of reason are worn down to nothing.
While on most issues Labour is now irrelevant , it remains a potentially disruptive force for the UK’s development of a meaningful and ethical response to the threat from IS.
The Conservative Government understands these points but with only a small majority in the House of Commons there is a chance that the foreign policy fantasists, who currently run Labour and the SNP, could tie the British army’s hands.
However, there is one piece of internal organising that is now far more pressing for the country as a whole rather than the Party alone. This is for those in Labour who take our international defence commitments seriously to join together to ensure that the Party (or enough of it) gives its backing to the world’s efforts to defeat IS.
Last post before I go - thank you for your reply Dr @foxinsoxuk. The stuff on exposure to Western culture is a good extension to my point and I agree with it. My argument would be - and will continue to be - that in isolating Muslims who are interested in such cultural things from our society we are making that more difficult and therefore making the fight longer and more arduous, notwithstanding the internet and the impact it can have (and possibly, is having).
Of course, even allowing for the horror of Paris, the people who also suffer most from Islamism are other Muslims. They have to live with them.
Good night all and have a good week.
I think such steps will be slow and often timid, but should always be welcomed. Compliments work wonders and everyone is open to flattery.
Nadya winning bakeoff was a positive start. Engaged in the contest but not threatened or forced to do anything she was not comfortable with. An excellent role model.
This is all true. But exposure to Western culture does not necessarily mean that the reaction will be positive. The founder of the Muslim Brotherhood spent time in America, was apparently treated well and had a good job and, yet, he came home repelled and it was one of the triggers, apparently, to him trying to create a purer form of Islam which would be superior to what he had seen.
It does not mean that we should not continue trying to reach out and integrate but it's a two way process and we will have to accept that some will react negatively. The very freedoms that we think make our society strong and better may well be seen by others as appalling and negative and decadent, even if they are born and live here., if there is a very strong countervailing culture.
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
It was also a reaction to the French Revolution, I understand.
I think the founder died in the 1790's; but you are probably right. It was Napoleons occupation of Egypt that really demonstrated how far behind the Muslim world had fallen. This set up the conflict between the secularist reformers and the fanatics, still being worked out today.
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabinet and Britain votes Leave. However, my instinct is that the next Tory leader will be somebody totally unexpected and possibly currently quite junior (as in Minister of State). An awful lot will depend on when the good Mr Cameron jacks it in and whether Jeremy Corbyn is still clinging on to the Labour leadership. The referendum's result will matter, as will the state of the economy (make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
What she meant to say was We Are the Nazi Party.
What an exceptionally unpleasant and uncharacteristic comment.
I really don't know why Antifrank is pretending to be an undecided, perhaps it's because he wants to keep writing undecided articles on here. Just man up and say I want us to stay in the EU regardless, it's not a crime or a sin.
I'd have hoped the one advantage of writing at excessive length would have been to make my views clear as to how I'll approach my decision-making. If Leave is going to campaign on pulling up the drawbridge, I'll probably be voting Remain. If it makes a positive case for Britain becoming a confident internationalist welcoming country, I'll probably be voting Leave.
I accept that my vote may well, as per the article, be one that Leave feels it is appropriate to sacrifice in pursuit of a majority.
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
In terms of Muslims in this country, I think it's a mistake to think these young people aren't 'integrated'. They spend all their time on their mobiles like all young people, play Call of Duty etc. They don't drink so they get stoned instead. They don't eat non-halal but that's not particular 'different' these days. I read an article on VICE where ISIS recruits over in Syria were getting care packages of designer boxers and Cadbury's chocolate from their mums. I think the problem is there's no strong sense of purpose, no sense of mission, no sense of meaning in modern British life. They get that from radical Islam.
If you want meaning and purpose and mission, there are plenty of things to be doing in modern Britain and there are plenty of people doing them. They're not making a great big noise about it and they they're trying to help people rather than kill them.
Lots of young men (and women) suffer from adolescent anomie but it's only one particular sub-set that gets attracted to religiously-inspired violence, often when they have not been particularly religious at all. I think one of the issues is that as a society we don't provide a strong counter-narrative to what they are told by the extremist preachers, in the way that they would be if they fell into the hands of, say, Neo-Nazis.
Belgium has a higher per capita number of foreign fighters, 40 per million, than any other European state. A radical group, Sharia4Belgium, set up by followers of the British extremist Anjem Choudary, is blamed for much of the exodus.
While on most issues Labour is now irrelevant , it remains a potentially disruptive force for the UK’s development of a meaningful and ethical response to the threat from IS.
The Conservative Government understands these points but with only a small majority in the House of Commons there is a chance that the foreign policy fantasists, who currently run Labour and the SNP, could tie the British army’s hands.
However, there is one piece of internal organising that is now far more pressing for the country as a whole rather than the Party alone. This is for those in Labour who take our international defence commitments seriously to join together to ensure that the Party (or enough of it) gives its backing to the world’s efforts to defeat IS.
Rubbish, it is a failure of Cameron and Osborne to convince Tories to vote with the government. Many of whom are unconvinced by the need to remove Assad, which Cameron seems fixated on.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Someone recently linked to a book on the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the years before and during the First World War. Since many of the region's current problems were formed (or at least re-forged) in the debris of that empire, it might be a good start for the deeper background.
Though the volume you link to appears to cover more of the period of rule by The Committee of Union and Progress. I had thought Rogan didn't cover enough of the period 1908-14. Given that The Ottomans were hamstrung by 3 wars Italy 1912, Balkan 1, Balkan 2, I would have liked more consideration of the impact on the rest of the Ottoman Territories. The other weakness was the limited coverage of The Collapse of The Sultanate and the impact of The Greek War.
However, Rogan is good on the evolution of Arab moves against The Ottomans from 1915, and the course of the war from Egypt to Syria.
Thanks, I'll put that on my (currently far too long) reading list.
As an aside, I'm currently reading TimT's book. So far it's been very interesting (and slightly peripherally pertinent to what we're discussing). Especially when I took it on a visit to the doctor's midweek, and the doctor turned out to be Iraqi ...
Other IS stongholds you pillock. France has been bombing ISIS in Iraq for the last 12 months. It has been bombing ISIS in Syria since September this year.
I really don't know why Antifrank is pretending to be an undecided, perhaps it's because he wants to keep writing undecided articles on here. Just man up and say I want us to stay in the EU regardless, it's not a crime or a sin.
I'd have hoped the one advantage of writing at excessive length would have been to make my views clear as to how I'll approach my decision-making. If Leave is going to campaign on pulling up the drawbridge, I'll probably be voting Remain. If it makes a positive case for Britain becoming a confident internationalist welcoming country, I'll probably be voting Leave.
I accept that my vote may well, as per the article, be one that Leave feels it is appropriate to sacrifice in pursuit of a majority.
You write very well, my compliments (that sounds patronising but it's not my intention).
The ever impartial Nick Palmer agrees with what you've written, which essentially is that LEAVE are relying on immigration issues. It's the left/labour line, to label anybody that wishes to control population numbers as the bad man.
The price on betfair for you to vote IN is 1.01, just be honest and stop this ridiculous undecided charade.
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Personally I think Manuel Valls could get it
Valls would be beaten by Juppe, Sarkozy or Le Pen in a run off. The left are very, very unpopular in France and the terrorist attack in Paris will push people further away from the appeasement policies of the left.
Most polling shows Valls and Sarkozy effectively tied in a run-off and Valls is far more dynamic and charismatic than Hollande and also willing to take a tough line when needed. Given Le Pen is almost certain to top the first round only one of Valls or Sarkozy will face her, if say the centre right split the vote between Sarkozy and Juppe or Fillon in Round 1 and Hollande withdraws in favour of Valls, Valls could well end up facing Le Pen in the run-off, latest polling shows he has a clear lead over her in Round 2, 55% to 45% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
All of those polls were carried out before the migrant crisis and of course before the Paris terrorist attack. They are as useful as a chocolate teapot.
You are ignoring the fact Valls can himself be quite tough on migrants when he wants to, including creating 900 extra border security police and reinstating border controls with Italy. The Paris attacks are likely to boost Le Pen further in round 1, but if Valls beats a divided centre right to face her in round two he would still be slight favourite
Belgium has a higher per capita number of foreign fighters, 40 per million, than any other European state. A radical group, Sharia4Belgium, set up by followers of the British extremist Anjem Choudary, is blamed for much of the exodus.
I really don't know why Antifrank is pretending to be an undecided, perhaps it's because he wants to keep writing undecided articles on here. Just man up and say I want us to stay in the EU regardless, it's not a crime or a sin.
I'd have hoped the one advantage of writing at excessive length would have been to make my views clear as to how I'll approach my decision-making. If Leave is going to campaign on pulling up the drawbridge, I'll probably be voting Remain. If it makes a positive case for Britain becoming a confident internationalist welcoming country, I'll probably be voting Leave.
I accept that my vote may well, as per the article, be one that Leave feels it is appropriate to sacrifice in pursuit of a majority.
You write very well, my compliments (that sounds patronising but it's not my intention).
The ever impartial Nick Palmer agrees with what you've written, which essentially is that LEAVE are relying on immigration issues. It's the left/labour line, to label anybody that wishes to control population numbers as the bad man.
The price on betfair for you to vote IN is 1.01, just be honest and stop this ridiculous undecided charade.
I don't think I could be clearer about my position. Whether you choose to believe it is your concern, not mine. As a general point, rejecting every potential voter who doesn't subscribe to a standard Leave point of view is a guaranteed route to defeat.
I really don't know why Antifrank is pretending to be an undecided, perhaps it's because he wants to keep writing undecided articles on here. Just man up and say I want us to stay in the EU regardless, it's not a crime or a sin.
I'd have hoped the one advantage of writing at excessive length would have been to make my views clear as to how I'll approach my decision-making. If Leave is going to campaign on pulling up the drawbridge, I'll probably be voting Remain. If it makes a positive case for Britain becoming a confident internationalist welcoming country, I'll probably be voting Leave.
I accept that my vote may well, as per the article, be one that Leave feels it is appropriate to sacrifice in pursuit of a majority.
You write very well, my compliments (that sounds patronising but it's not my intention).
The ever impartial Nick Palmer agrees with what you've written, which essentially is that LEAVE are relying on immigration issues. It's the left/labour line, to label anybody that wishes to control population numbers as the bad man.
The price on betfair for you to vote IN is 1.01, just be honest and stop this ridiculous undecided charade.
I very much appreciate Antifrank's articles. Always thoughtful.
I posted last night- I think young Muslims have a real problem with modernity. Aside from smoking weed, playing computer games, listening to gangster rap, they have little external vent for their feelings. The family, culture and community is controlling, stifling and oppressive. They can't drink, they don't do piercing and tats, they don't do class A's; they don't do anything that visibly ostracises them. They are reminded all the time about family, duty, obligation.
And so they turn to radical Islam- a way to rebel, and to exert their individualism within the constraints of a controlled life.
They outwardly vent their frustrations onto causes- Syria, Palestine, Iraq etc... In reality their families are the problem, their controlling parents, their communities- they are the ones that drive their kids into this nihilistic nonsense.
I agree. The cognitive dissonance caused by the challenge to beliefs from moving to the West can cause all sorts of reactions. It is a common theme of radical Islamists that they became more fanatical through exposure to the transparent material, social and political superiority of Western culture. If they have been always taught that Islam is superior when it is manifestly not so, there can be an unpredictable response.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
In terms of Muslims in this country, I think it's a mistake to think these young people aren't 'integrated'. They spend all their time on their mobiles like all young people, play Call of Duty etc. They don't drink so they get stoned instead. They don't eat non-halal but that's not particular 'different' these days. I read an article on VICE where ISIS recruits over in Syria were getting care packages of designer boxers and Cadbury's chocolate from their mums. I think the problem is there's no strong sense of purpose, no sense of mission, no sense of meaning in modern British life. They get that from radical Islam.
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabinet and Britain votes Leave. However, my instinct is that the next Tory leader will be somebody totally unexpected and possibly currently quite junior (as in Minister of State). An awful lot will depend on when the good Mr Cameron jacks it in and whether Jeremy Corbyn is still clinging on to the Labour leadership. The referendum's result will matter, as will the state of the economy (make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
She did not say or claim the tories were the nasty party. So stop making an even bigger fool of yourself than usual. As for May, I do not think she is likely to run as leader, or win if she did.
I really don't know why Antifrank is pretending to be an undecided, perhaps it's because he wants to keep writing undecided articles on here. Just man up and say I want us to stay in the EU regardless, it's not a crime or a sin.
I'd have hoped the one advantage of writing at excessive length would have been to make my views clear as to how I'll approach my decision-making. If Leave is going to campaign on pulling up the drawbridge, I'll probably be voting Remain. If it makes a positive case for Britain becoming a confident internationalist welcoming country, I'll probably be voting Leave.
I accept that my vote may well, as per the article, be one that Leave feels it is appropriate to sacrifice in pursuit of a majority.
You write very well, my compliments (that sounds patronising but it's not my intention).
The ever impartial Nick Palmer agrees with what you've written, which essentially is that LEAVE are relying on immigration issues. It's the left/labour line, to label anybody that wishes to control population numbers as the bad man.
The price on betfair for you to vote IN is 1.01, just be honest and stop this ridiculous undecided charade.
I don't think I could be clearer about my position. Whether you choose to believe it is your concern, not mine. As a general point, rejecting every potential voter who doesn't subscribe to a standard Leave point of view is a guaranteed route to defeat.
I'm rejecting nobody, I'm encouraging everybody to leave.
I just find it frustrating that people who are patently INNERs are writing undecided articles on here. I'd like Nigel Farage to pen a piece saying he's not entirely certain how he's going to vote yet and that people need to wait and see.
Write a piece outlining the conditions you'd vote OUT, that will keep me quiet.
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabin(make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
She did not say or claim the tories were the nasty party. So stop making an even bigger fool of yourself than usual. As for May, I do not think she is likely to run as leader, or win if she did.
She claimed others called the Tories "nasty":
"You know what some people call us: the nasty party." - Theresa May, October 2002.
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabin(make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
She did not say or claim the tories were the nasty party. So stop making an even bigger fool of yourself than usual. As for May, I do not think she is likely to run as leader, or win if she did.
She claimed others called the Tories "nasty":
"You know what some people call us: the nasty party." - Theresa May, October 2002.
A question for the PB brains trust. A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on. Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabin(make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
She did not say or claim the tories were the nasty party. So stop making an even bigger fool of yourself than usual. As for May, I do not think she is likely to run as leader, or win if she did.
She claimed others called the Tories "nasty":
"You know what some people call us: the nasty party." - Theresa May, October 2002.
Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.
And he will win.
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
Personally I think Manuel Valls could get it
Valls would be beaten by Juppe, Sarkozy or Le Pen in a run off. The left are very, very unpopular in France and the terrorist attack in Paris will push people further away from the appeasement policies of the left.
Most polling shows Valls and Sarkozy effectively tied in a run-off and Valls is far more dynamic and charismatic than Hollande and also willing to take a tough line when needed. Given Le Pen is almost certain to top the first round only one of Valls or Sarkozy will face her, if say the centre right split the vote between Sarkozy and Juppe or Fillon in Round 1 and Hollande withdraws in favour of Valls, Valls could well end up facing Le Pen in the run-off, latest polling shows he has a clear lead over her in Round 2, 55% to 45% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
All of those polls were carried out before the migrant crisis and of course before the Paris terrorist attack. They are as useful as a chocolate teapot.
You are ignoring the fact Valls can himself be quite tough on migrants when he wants to, including creating 900 extra border security police and reinstating border controls with Italy. The Paris attacks are likely to boost Le Pen further in round 1, but if Valls beats a divided centre right to face her in round two he would still be slight favourite
I'm not ignoring anything, it's just that the left in France will not be able to out fight the right on immigration and anti-terror. If, as it seems, the next few elections in Europe are going to e fought on these subjects the left will struggle across the whole of the continent outside of the bail out nations.
The Belgians are pretty decent at dealing with terrorism issues on their patch that have originated in the Middle East but one of their most senior officers says that what they face these days is something different in its nature and modus operandi. For a start they simply don't have the numbers. They are very open at admitting there is a fair measure of luck in deciding who to track. Their understanding of the mindset that gets these guys on the radicalism train though is very much spot on, they are no fools.
What I do know is that the Belgians have heavy restrictions and limited capabilities on big ears and rely heavily on GCHQ and the NSA for support. Bearing in mind how important signals intelligence is this is a major handicap. 75-80% of actionable intelligence gleaned by the chief Western agencies is signals based. That in itself perhaps indicates a human sources shortage but it also the reality that the use of electronic communications by terror groups is a fact of life.
The Arjem Choudary link is well known with a particular 'Muslim relief' group that the Belgian authorities rated as a set of buffoons but also knew had elements that sprouted wings elsewhere.
I suspect IS has had another intelligence bleed regarding their core area of operations in Eastern Syria. Their operational security has in some ways been weak in that area but this time its a possible informant.
By the way the situation in Burundi may have boiled over tonight. There are shooting and explosions in Bujumbura. The seriousness with which many in the international community have been taking things there is due warning of how worrisome it could be. With luck, its a minor incident.
Her problem is that she's quite dull and struggles to answer questions straight: it makes her sound evasive.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
There are so many jokes could be made about that!
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabin(make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
I don't think labelling Theresa May bigoted is a credible attack line. She was one of the earliest modernisers.
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
She did not say or claim the tories were the nasty party. So stop making an even bigger fool of yourself than usual. As for May, I do not think she is likely to run as leader, or win if she did.
She claimed others called the Tories "nasty":
"You know what some people call us: the nasty party." - Theresa May, October 2002.
Comments
'Former French President Nicola Sarkozy has told French TV that all those on an official watchlist of suspected radicals should be forced to wear "an electronic tag". He is widely expected to run for the presidency again in 2017.'
Great idea.
Reuters says that the French strikes on Raqqa involved 10 jets dropping 20 bombs, quoting the French Defence Ministry
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/24/one-million-minority-ethnic-votes-helped-tories-no-10
BREAKING: 4 French officials tell AP police questioned, freed fugitive suspect hours after Paris attacks.
Not sure that to make of this - but will see if anything else is added.
Meanwhile AP are reporting that French police questioned and then released Salah Abdeslam in the hours after the Paris attacks
@BBCDanielS
Meanwhile AP are reporting that French police questioned and then released Salah Abdeslam in the hours after the Paris attacks
"What I would like to understand is why there appears to be so much radicalisation within the Belgian Muslim community. What are the factors operating there?"
The Dutch also have massive problems with their second generation Muslim population. They would tell you that the common factor is that the majority of the immigrants are Moroccan who have a propensity for violence and lawlessness. But I only know this from what people say in those countries. The problems in Holland are particularly difficult
http://news.sky.com/story/1588256/france-drops-20-bombs-on-is-stronghold-raqqa
There was a local elder gentleman on the news earlier saying there had been "problems " at the mosque, but "he didn't want to get involved"
BREAKING: 10 French fighter bombers attack Raqqa tonight
With the every best will in the world it would have been difficult for the police ....and the names have only become known in the last few hours hence the connection was made.
It does not mean that we should not continue trying to reach out and integrate but it's a two way process and we will have to accept that some will react negatively. The very freedoms that we think make our society strong and better may well be seen by others as appalling and negative and decadent, even if they are born and live here., if there is a very strong countervailing culture.
A friend of mine's dad has recently got interested in the middle east (Sunni, Shia and IS etc) and all that is going on.
Can any PBers recommend a couple of decent books that cover the background and the various factions etc?
Also you do have to factor in airlift capacity and think of resupply.
A few of my very non political mates commented after the foiled train attack shooting.
The 3 guys involved got an award by the French Government straight away.
They said that here they would probably have been arrested for infringing the rights of the gunman.
While that wouldn't have probably happened, it shows the depth of cynicism that some people have for the UK authorities.
The Arabs: A History by Eugene Rogan is more recent and probably places more emphasis on the glory days of Arab power, science and learning thus putting more into context the current sentiment of disenfranchisement and being wronged.
For the various modern terrorist factions, I have not looked so am not a good source.
From recent it reports, it sounds like a certain area of Brussels could be housing all of those too.
And that was before air travel.
Indeed Wahabism itself began in the 18th century as a revival of early practices and dismay of the corruption and effeteness of the Ottoman Caliphate of the time.
Published pre-arab spring though.
Realclearpolitics reports some surprising polling - Clinton is now streets ahead of Sanders (46-25) in New Hampshire, having been behind in the past, so presumably the debate was indeed the success the critics thought; she's also 22 ahead nationwide. Meanwhile, GOP opposition to Trump in NH has splintered hopelessly - he's on 29, nobody else above 12 (Cruz). Meanwhile, satisfaciton with Obama has surged into positive territory (50-45).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Rogan has also written about the Ottomans and The First World War, which I thought was an excellent read.
http://www.amazon.com/Terrors-Source-Ideology-Wahhabi-Salafism-Consequences/dp/0954372905
It is a bit specific to one country (Lebanon) but since that country is basically a microcosm of just about every religious conflict and disagreement going on in the ME it is a very good way to get an idea about the various myriad factions.
An older book which covers the basic divisions and sects in the ME is John Pasha Glubb's 'A Short History of the Arab Peoples'
http://order-order.com/2015/11/15/cabinet-minister-admits-affair/
I *think* it was this one;
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fall-Sultanate-Ottoman-1908-1922-Greater/dp/0199676070/
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002132.html#more
He points out...
''The EU is important even if you adjust for the so-called Rotterdam effect; exports destined for the rest of the world which are shipped via Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and imports from the rest of the world which come in the same way. Exclude all exports to the Netherlands from the numbers and it would still be the case that more than 40% of Britain’s overseas sales are to the rest of the EU.''
But not terribly up-to-date on the very recent developments.
For those try any of:-
The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright (mainly focused on the rise of Al-Qaeda and 9/11)
The Rise of Islamic State by Patrick Cockburn
The New Threat from Islamic Militancy by Jason Burke
'What Went Wrong?: The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East'
Basically looking at why the Arab World failed to continue to modernise after the 17th century.
And of course there is no reason at all to believe there would be any great change in our trade with the EU after we left. That is just a Europhile scare story.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
However, SeanT is right. I have been too verbose this time. I shall try to be terser in future.
On books: I would recommend "No God but God" by Reza Aslan on the history of Islamic schisms and the underlying politics.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Fall-Ottomans-Great-Middle/dp/046502307X/ref=pd_rhf_dp_p_img_1?ie=UTF8&refRID=1BN3YKW2WETKDCXW1GEG
Though the volume you link to appears to cover more of the period of rule by The Committee of Union and Progress. I had thought Rogan didn't cover enough of the period 1908-14. Given that The Ottomans were hamstrung by 3 wars Italy 1912, Balkan 1, Balkan 2, I would have liked more consideration of the impact on the rest of the Ottoman Territories. The other weakness was the limited coverage of The Collapse of The Sultanate and the impact of The Greek War.
However, Rogan is good on the evolution of Arab moves against The Ottomans from 1915, and the course of the war from Egypt to Syria.
Many thanks to everyone for their recommendations.
I accept that my vote may well, as per the article, be one that Leave feels it is appropriate to sacrifice in pursuit of a majority.
Lots of young men (and women) suffer from adolescent anomie but it's only one particular sub-set that gets attracted to religiously-inspired violence, often when they have not been particularly religious at all. I think one of the issues is that as a society we don't provide a strong counter-narrative to what they are told by the extremist preachers, in the way that they would be if they fell into the hands of, say, Neo-Nazis.
This article by Nick Cohen is particularly good on this point - http://www.standpointmag.com/node/5886/full.
Belgium has a higher per capita number of foreign fighters, 40 per million, than any other European state. A radical group, Sharia4Belgium, set up by followers of the British extremist Anjem Choudary, is blamed for much of the exodus.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11997410/Paris-attackers-linked-to-Belgian-suburb-where-the-authorities-have-lost-control.html
Rubbish, it is a failure of Cameron and Osborne to convince Tories to vote with the government. Many of whom are unconvinced by the need to remove Assad, which Cameron seems fixated on.
As an aside, I'm currently reading TimT's book. So far it's been very interesting (and slightly peripherally pertinent to what we're discussing). Especially when I took it on a visit to the doctor's midweek, and the doctor turned out to be Iraqi ...
France has been bombing ISIS in Iraq for the last 12 months. It has been bombing ISIS in Syria since September this year.
The ever impartial Nick Palmer agrees with what you've written, which essentially is that LEAVE are relying on immigration issues. It's the left/labour line, to label anybody that wishes to control population numbers as the bad man.
The price on betfair for you to vote IN is 1.01, just be honest and stop this ridiculous undecided charade.
And so they turn to radical Islam- a way to rebel, and to exert their individualism within the constraints of a controlled life.
They outwardly vent their frustrations onto causes- Syria, Palestine, Iraq etc... In reality their families are the problem, their controlling parents, their communities- they are the ones that drive their kids into this nihilistic nonsense.
As for May, I do not think she is likely to run as leader, or win if she did.
I just find it frustrating that people who are patently INNERs are writing undecided articles on here. I'd like Nigel Farage to pen a piece saying he's not entirely certain how he's going to vote yet and that people need to wait and see.
Write a piece outlining the conditions you'd vote OUT, that will keep me quiet.
"You know what some people call us: the nasty party." - Theresa May, October 2002.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/oct/08/uk.conservatives2002
A woman has been arrested after Facebook posts 'banning Muslims from her salon'
What I do know is that the Belgians have heavy restrictions and limited capabilities on big ears and rely heavily on GCHQ and the NSA for support. Bearing in mind how important signals intelligence is this is a major handicap. 75-80% of actionable intelligence gleaned by the chief Western agencies is signals based. That in itself perhaps indicates a human sources shortage but it also the reality that the use of electronic communications by terror groups is a fact of life.
The Arjem Choudary link is well known with a particular 'Muslim relief' group that the Belgian authorities rated as a set of buffoons but also knew had elements that sprouted wings elsewhere.
I suspect IS has had another intelligence bleed regarding their core area of operations in Eastern Syria. Their operational security has in some ways been weak in that area but this time its a possible informant.
By the way the situation in Burundi may have boiled over tonight. There are shooting and explosions in Bujumbura. The seriousness with which many in the international community have been taking things there is due warning of how worrisome it could be. With luck, its a minor incident.