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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank looks at where the EU referendum will be won and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank looks at where the EU referendum will be won and lost
Referenda are odd affairs. Two sides, both of which are passionately invested in the success or failure of the proposition, seek to woo disproportionate numbers of far less interested voters to their respective causes. Votes are counted, not marked out of ten for enthusiasm. Each side must resist the temptation to make arguments that fascinate those who are already-engaged but which make the ba…
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Certainly multiple sources in the Middle East seemed to know something was coming. The Saudis and Iraqis have now both claimed they warned a number of countries including the French."
That's interesting. If that is the case, and this can be traced to ISIS central command, then any public appetite for a full-out international coalition to crush them might rapidly increase.
Could it even lead to boots on the ground?
Party - GE15 - % IN - Net
Tory - 37% - 50% - 18.5% * If Cameron backs IN
Lab - 31% - 70% - 21.7%
LD - 8% - 75% - 6%
UKIP - 13% - 10% - 1.3%
Others-11% - 70% - 7.7%
Total - 100% - - 55.2%
Rousey vs Holm?
I know I posted the heat map for the petition to end all immigration to the UK yesterday. The petition itself is not interesting, however, the number of people signing it in Labour seats is interesting. UKIP need to tap into voters in these constituencies.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=107516
Out of curiosity, where does David Davis stand on this issue? He's a bit of a maverick, admittedly, but he's also an intelligent and forceful maverick who is certainly boring in political terms.
Iraqi intelligence warned US-led coalition countries of an imminent assault the day before the Paris attacks, it has emerged.
Andrew Neil @afneil 1 hr1 hour ago
Those who think Islamic State barbarity is a response to Western foreign policy might like to speak to the Yazidi women who are still alive
Most of Leave's focus seems to be on wavering Conservatives - and how to stop Cameron's inevitable endorsement bringing them into the Remain camp.
I'm hearing far less of how they plan to target Labour voters. There may be a rich seam to mine there.
But Theresa May won't be Leave leader whilst she's still in the cabinet. She'll make some sympathetic noises but otherwise keep her powder dry for the eventual leadership contest.
It is interesting how your own left leaning bias leads you to a view which I don't think is shared by a single person in the Leave camp - that leaving would result in a more isolationist position for the UK.
In fact the Leave view is the exact opposite. We regard leaving the EU as a move away from isolationism and protectionism and towards a more forward looking internationalist position which maintains our positions on the UN and WTO amongst many other bodies and which has Britain pursuing her own foreign policy in collaboration with our neighbours but not dominated by them.
The Leave position is entirely positive and forward looking as opposed to the clinging to Nanny's skirts attitude being portrayed by Remain.
However, that's not necessarily fatal. She has balls of steel and is a survivor. Of all the Tory frontrunners for the leadership atm she's probably the best of the bunch.
Will be interesting to see if the Cons believe their position is so secure in 2020 and beyond that they can elect a dull, typical, boring, plodding Conservative as leader.
Perhaps they can.
No ground intervention in Syria/Iraq would be a serious proposition without US logistical support. And I just can't see that whilst Obama is still in office. But, if (he) found a backbone, and the US infrastructure was there to facilitate an intervention, I think a fair few countries would supply troops. Including possibly some of the Arab states.
Given the decimated state of our forces, I imagine we'd only be able to cobble together 3-5K of troops at best.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11997410/Paris-attackers-linked-to-Belgian-suburb-where-the-authorities-have-lost-control.html
"Two of the Paris attackers – and at least three other people involved – are linked to a heavily-Muslim suburb of Brussels where the authorities admit they have “lost control.”"
That total arsewipe Choudery gets a mention too.
147 dead, Islamist gunmen killed after attack at Kenya college
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/02/africa/kenya-university-attack/
What May has in her favour is that she's the only candidate who can realistically become next PM who talks-the-talk on immigration, security and the EU, and has walked a little bit of the walk too.
If the situation deteriorates further over the next 4 years, I can only see her relative position improve.
Boris wants to play this card too - and with more rhetorical panache - but his trouble is that no-one believes him, or trusts him.
Jordan is the only one. Would you really want Iraqi troops ? Their tanks have only one gear !
http://www.dawn.com/news/1175284
However, on the substantive point it would be very surprising if she were the next Tory leader. She's Home Secretary - the last Home Secretary to become PM directly was Palmerston in 1855, under very unusual circumstances. Asquith and then of all people William Joynson-Hicks are the two who come nearest after that (Asquith would have been LOTO and then PM with no Campbell-Bannerman could he have afforded to give up his practice as a barrister). But more than that, she is too divisive. She tends to repel as many people as she attracts - what some see as good old-fashioned straight-talking, others see as straight bigotry. In office, the Conservatives are more likely to look for a conciliator. The same problem tells against George Osborne and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson.
Hammond should probably be betting favourite at the moment, especially if he is in the Cabinet and Britain votes Leave. However, my instinct is that the next Tory leader will be somebody totally unexpected and possibly currently quite junior (as in Minister of State). An awful lot will depend on when the good Mr Cameron jacks it in and whether Jeremy Corbyn is still clinging on to the Labour leadership. The referendum's result will matter, as will the state of the economy (make a hole in each end...) We don't know the answer to either of those yet, so I would say there isn't much actual value in any contender right now.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/11/iain-dale-sixteen-things-britain-should-do-to-beat-isis.html
Mr Eee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfwqXga1ul4
I just can't see a sensible or likely candidate.
I would have said Jeremy and it might still be the case if the public take against the strike.
But I'm stumped (not for the first time..)
I think the point about Home Secretary is a classic correlation does not equal causation canard.
I think there are some interesting longshots (beneath the radar at the moment) but I disagree that she isn't value.
Police on Friday detained five people in Istanbul, the source said.
----
Maybe they will stop bombing the Kurds and focused their bombs on ISIS instead..
I read something interest yesterday which stated that getting people into ISIS territory from Turkey has become a lot harder. Not because the Turkish have suddenly grown a backbone, but because the Kurds now control a lot of the land along the border.
"It's worth reading Fawwaz Traboulsi [ from Tripoli ] 's book: A History of Modern Lebanon recommended to me by a Maronite."
Thanks. I'll take a look. The Lebanese are very aware of their heritage. They got me to do this for their COI. (A bit portentous but it was for the whole Arab world which likes OTT)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL6AVWLPJD0&feature=youtu.be
Going way off-topic, here's a nice little site detailing the creation of the game nearly 25 years ago. That was back in the days when a couple of people in a small office could create a hit computer game. Nowadays they can cost over $100 million to make and market ...
http://www.javalemmings.com/DMA/Lem_1.htm
I would have thought it would still go ahead unless the security services and police thought that it would not be possible to assure public safety and the integrity of the ballot.
What I would like to understand is why there appears to be so much radicalisation within the Belgian Muslim community. What are the factors operating there?
Elite
2 best games pre uni on BBC acorn
Football manager on spectrum at uni, football the size of the goal.
Top times
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwV5LfxFMxU
NFW should terrorists be allowed to stop elections, referenda and the rest of it.
(At least for later versions, before the lights went out)
Polling evidence for this? Particularly the last part? What does 'doing lots of things' even mean?
I strongly disagree that people want this - it's one of the weakest of the pro-eu arguments that we need to be part of some powerful bloc so we can continue to tell people what to do. The idea is profoundly illiberal (which is perhaps why it's so often espoused by the Lib Dems).
I think what people want is a Britain that is capable of defending its citizens and its laws, and is prosperous, free, stable, democratic, and peaceful. It's politicians who want the biggest motorcade and a seat at the front at international junkets.
Friday Night in Paris: the sequel = leave, if it falls at an inconvenient moment.
I think economy wil break for Leave/Remain depending on industry. Fishing for Leave, Farming probably for remain, NHS for Remain etc.
When judging these things those losing out are always more vocal. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Jack W thinks that Remain will win. No further analysis needed!
Thanks for the promise of a future invitation FPT... I should be fascinated and happy to give a personal view... Should you need space I'm sure we can russle up something - my brother has a better set up for that kind of event (mine is a little old school) but it may be too controversial for his taste.
Can we not just set a date, set the rules (no children, no civilians, no knuckledusters) and fighty fighty to the death?
That will do me.
A great track! It's a really lively place full of clubs cafes restaurants and one of the most attractive populations anywhere (thanks in part to extensive plastic surgery). If only the Israelis would stop using it for target practice
that timetable shall have effect for the purposes of the Representation of the People Acts, in relation to anything which at the time of the demise has not been done and was not required to be done before that time, as if the proclamation given, and any proceeding referred to in that timetable (including the receipt of the writ) which has taken place, had been given or taken place on the day following the end of the period of fourteen days beginning with the day on which it was given or took place.
i.e. delayed by fourteen days.
EDIT - I was talking about general elections. Not about referenda. Sorry!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/24/one-million-minority-ethnic-votes-helped-tories-no-10
Glad we've cleared that up.
What she meant to say was We Are the Nazi Party.
Perhaps so..... Easy mistake to make
However Surbiton placed the quote firmly in inverted commas and also capitals. At the very least having done that on this website a full link to those precise words as quoted including the shouting of 'nasty party' , is the very least required. Maybe she said it? I don't know but I hear it quoted here so where is the link to theses precise words. I don't want a link to an hour long speech either. If she said this it should be easily available
What was incredibly engaging, the two player version... If you think MarioKart battlemode on the SNES (something they have failed to recreate successfully on any of the sequels).
Of course, even allowing for the horror of Paris, the people who also suffer most from Islamism are other Muslims. They have to live with them.
Good night all and have a good week.
"Thanks. I'll take a look. The Lebanese are very aware of their heritage."
I understand that Lebanese dna threads back to the Phoenicians, who invented and propagated the alphabet. Heritage writ large.
Speaking of writing, I must get around to reading The Ice Twins, currently gathering dust on a shelf, that is if it's not too long.
Nadya winning bakeoff was a positive start. Engaged in the contest but not threatened or forced to do anything she was not comfortable with. An excellent role model.
Acorn probably had the best team of hw and sw engineers I've worked with, killed off (ironically enough) by their child ARM. Not that it was ARM's fault ...
Sarkozy will swing as Right as he needs to do to beat Le Pen.
"We are the NASTY PARTY" - Theresa May
She didn't actually say that .......but you already knew that.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2306621.stm
That will do me.</blockquote
That will do you? Well it doesn't do me. You placed a quote in inverted commas with the nasty party in capitals ( shouted) . That's not what happened as you knew when you posted.
So it was a huge porkie then. That will do me.
You got called out just stop digging.