On another note, the error ridden Oxfordshire letters must be the most jaw droppingly hopeless thing Cameron has done in a long, long time.
The Labour move on parliamentary process is just an niggly opening shot for something they hope will get the kind of wider vague public awareness as, for example, the pasty tax stuck to Osborne. Must admit, playing this kind of Westminster awkward squad game is where Corbyn looks most at home, he seems to be having much more consistent success with it than Miliband ever did (the arithmetic of the houses, of course, favours him better).
Are councils routinely subjected to external audit to check for waste and inefficiency?
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
"I think it's largely FPTP that prevents very similar voting patterns in Britain (and would you feel that Farage is really worlds apart from Fini?). I'd put Britain somewhere in the upper middle of the European pack with respect to tolerance of races, creeds, etc. - behind Germany and Scandinavia, ahead of France and many Eastern European countries. There is more hostility to consistent tolerance (which critics call "political correctness") in Britain than on much of the Continent - in a funny sort of way, our relaxed culture makes us more tolerant of intolerance ("it was only a joke", "he's not altogether wrong", "it's understandable", etc.)."
I'm not a Farage supporter but he is not a Fascist. Fini leads a party which is the explicit descendant of Mussolini's party. I think there is a significant difference - and I'm surprised (and a little disappointed, TBH) - that you should not.
It's that kind of lazy thinking which infuriates me. Fascism is a specific political creed, a nasty one. Being against the EU or unlimited immigration does not make one a fascist.
As ever Orwell had it right: "The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies "something not desirable"."
FPTP may have something to do with it but is not the main reason. We are a largely pragmatic bottom up sort of a county where practicality matters more than theory. Partly as a result of that (and many other factors) we have not been prey to or have resisted the furiously murderous passions which have enveloped other European countries despite being, often, subject to the same political and economic whirlwinds. That is to Britain's credit and something to be proud of. It does sometimes feel that those who are in favour of the EU think that Britain's pride in itself is somehow a bad thing.
On another note, the error ridden Oxfordshire letters must be the most jaw droppingly hopeless thing Cameron has done in a long, long time.
The Labour move on parliamentary process is just an niggly opening shot for something they hope will get the kind of wider vague public awareness as, for example, the pasty tax stuck to Osborne. Must admit, playing this kind of Westminster awkward squad game is where Corbyn looks most at home, he seems to be having much more consistent success with it than Miliband ever did (the arithmetic of the houses, of course, favours him better).
Are councils routinely subjected to external audit to check for waste and inefficiency?
It's a curious tale, since council leader Hudspeth seems 'pro cuts' in an article for the local paper last month.
SNP to win 68 out of 73 constituency seats. Labour to hold Edinburgh Northern and gain Edinburgh Southern Tories to hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire Lib Dems to hold both Orkney and Shetland.
Constituency vote shares: SNP 52% Labour 27% Tories 13% Lib Dems 6%
(This probably counts as an optimistic prediction from SLAB's point of view)
SNP to win 68 out of 73 constituency seats. Labour to hold Edinburgh Northern and gain Edinburgh Southern Tories to hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire Lib Dems to hold both Orkney and Shetland.
Constituency vote shares: SNP 52% Labour 27% Tories 13% Lib Dems 6%
(This probably counts as an optimistic prediction from SLAB's point of view)
There is no way Edinburgh will vote for Corbyn, it is a Unionist City but prefers Sturgeon to him. Any gains Corbyn makes will it seems be on the list in the Central Belt on the constituency vote the SNP will increase their majority
Should be noted that Willie Rennie and Tim Farron don't even rate a question about their popularity. Suspect both would be over 80% No Idea Who They Are.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
Yeah, not for the first time the right wing, Unionist commentariat have got themselves a little over excited. Who could forget their fawning over Jim 'I’m Astonished By How Easy It’s Been To Outwit The SNP' Murphy.
Should be noted that Willie Rennie and Tim Farron don't even rate a question about their popularity. Suspect both would be over 80% No Idea Who They Are.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
She's great in the eyes of the media bubbles in Holyrood and Westminster. Even if you do have a passing interest in Scottish politics, even if you're one of the 20,000 people who watch Scotland 2015, you could watch an entire month of the programme and the Sunday Politics Scotland and never see Ruth Davidson once.
She is the leader of a minor party which gets coverage in newspapers no-one reads (the Scotsman sells about 15,000 copies a week) and gets very limited TV coverage. I think people outside Scotland don't really get it, To the public, Sturgeon *IS* Scottish politics right now, she's utterly dominant and dominating.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
Yeah, not for the first time the right wing, Unionist commentariat have got themselves a little over excited. Who could forget their fawning over Jim 'I’m Astonished By How Easy It’s Been To Outwit The SNP' Murphy.
She is less disliked than Cameron or Corbyn and only 10% less disliked than Sturgeon and more liked than Dugdale. In Westminster polls the Tories have made gains in Scotland and are over 20% the SNP below 50% clearly some voters would vote SNP at Holyrood Tory at Westminster
SNP to win 68 out of 73 constituency seats. Labour to hold Edinburgh Northern and gain Edinburgh Southern Tories to hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire Lib Dems to hold both Orkney and Shetland.
Constituency vote shares: SNP 52% Labour 27% Tories 13% Lib Dems 6%
(This probably counts as an optimistic prediction from SLAB's point of view)
There is no way Edinburgh will vote for Corbyn, it is a Unionist City but prefers Sturgeon to him. Any gains Corbyn makes will it seems be on the list in the Central Belt on the constituency vote the SNP will increase their majority
In England atleast, Corbyn has gone down much better with the young than he has with the Old Labour white working-class vote. If there's a similar pattern in Scotland, that would make Edinburgh more fertile than the very WWC-dominated Central Belt.
Also, it might seem strange to suggest SLAB could make a gain in a landslide defeat, but Edinburgh Southern still had a big LibDem vote to squeeze in 2011 (which will presumably be more unionist-leaning).
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
Yeah, not for the first time the right wing, Unionist commentariat have got themselves a little over excited. Who could forget their fawning over Jim 'I’m Astonished By How Easy It’s Been To Outwit The SNP' Murphy.
She is less disliked than Cameron or Corbyn and only 10% less disliked than Sturgeon and more liked than Dugdale. In Westminster polls the Tories have made gains in Scotland and are over 20% the SNP below 50% clearly some voters would vote SNP at Holyrood Tory at Westminster
You missed the most important part of the approval ratings in the TNS survey.
Sturgeon is more popular with LABOUR supporters than Kezia Dugdale is.
Good to see you're still clinging on to meaningless subsamples.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
Yeah, not for the first time the right wing, Unionist commentariat have got themselves a little over excited. Who could forget their fawning over Jim 'I’m Astonished By How Easy It’s Been To Outwit The SNP' Murphy.
She is less disliked than Cameron or Corbyn and only 10% less disliked than Sturgeon and more liked than Dugdale. In Westminster polls the Tories have made gains in Scotland and are over 20% the SNP below 50% clearly some voters would vote SNP at Holyrood Tory at Westminster
You missed the most important part of the approval ratings in the TNS survey.
Sturgeon is more popular with LABOUR supporters than Kezia Dugdale is.
So, that does not dispute my earlier comments on Davidson
SNP to win 68 out of 73 constituency seats. Labour to hold Edinburgh Northern and gain Edinburgh Southern Tories to hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire Lib Dems to hold both Orkney and Shetland.
Constituency vote shares: SNP 52% Labour 27% Tories 13% Lib Dems 6%
(This probably counts as an optimistic prediction from SLAB's point of view)
There is no way Edinburgh will vote for Corbyn, it is a Unionist City but prefers Sturgeon to him. Any gains Corbyn makes will it seems be on the list in the Central Belt on the constituency vote the SNP will increase their majority
In England atleast, Corbyn has gone down much better with the young than he has with the Old Labour white working-class vote. If there's a similar pattern in Scotland, that would make Edinburgh more fertile than the very WWC-dominated Central Belt.
Also, it might seem strange to suggest SLAB could make a gain in a landslide defeat, but Edinburgh Southern still had a big LibDem vote to squeeze in 2011 (which will presumably be more unionist-leaning).
No Labour has big leads in the North and Wales which are more wwc Edinburgh is middle-class and they probably preferred Ed Miliband to Corbyn which was why he held his one Scottish seat in the City. Edinburgh Tories also probably prefer even Sturgeon to Corbyn and will not tactically vote Labour. Scottish LDs are also more centrist than southern LDs
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
I really cringe at the idea of two years (potentially) reading posts by people on either side. They convince no-one and largely recycle the same ideas of language of their previous posts. As a matter of the preservation of my sanity (what is left of it before dementia strikes :-), I try very hard to ignore any and all such posts..
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
I really cringe at the idea of two years (potentially) reading posts by people on either side. They convince no-one and largely recycle the same ideas of language of their previous posts. As a matter of the preservation of my sanity (what is left of it before dementia strikes :-), I try very hard to ignore any and all such posts..
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
That will suit LEAVE perfectly
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations.
Not a chance I'm afraid, @Blackburn63. Most people will not care about the renegotiation or lack of it one bit. It will swing only the smallest number of votes (Mine perhaps if Dave gets alot more than he looks to be at the moment), but the general public won't know or care for the details !
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
No, I needed a name for my character way back in Uni for my Quake 3 character during a LAN party . The band "Pulp" may have been in there at a subconcsious level I guess !
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
No, I needed a name for my character way back in Uni for my Quake 3 character during a LAN party . The band "Pulp" may have been in there at a subconcsious level I guess !
Oh.. Im listening to Different Class as I type.. classic album
Sweden has reinstated border controls in a bid to gain control over the massive influx of migrants arriving in the country. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven insisted: "This is not a fence. We need to make sure that we have control ... We have to make sure we know who is coming to Sweden"...
Police began carrying out identification checks on passengers travelling on trains crossing the bridge over the Oresund strait from Denmark, an AFP correspondent reported.
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
The misses told me she wasn't happy that I was veering towards 'leave'. I asked her why, she replied that the EU protects workers rights. I said that we could protect those outside the EU anyway. "What under the Tories ?!" was her comeback ! I then replied that Gov'ts would come and go of all colours for the ~ 40 years the vote will/should be valid for - the current Gov't shouldn't be the basis of the decision tbh ^_~
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
The misses told me she wasn't happy that I was veering towards 'leave'. I asked her why, she replied that the EU protects workers rights. I said that we could protect those outside the EU anyway. "What under the Tories ?!" was her comeback ! I then replied that Gov'ts would come and go of all colours for the ~ 40 years the vote will/should be valid for - the current Gov't shouldn't be the basis of the decision tbh ^_~
Pretty undemocratic to support the EU on the basis that it imposes legislation that the electorate wouldn't actually choose via the ballot box.
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
The misses told me she wasn't happy that I was veering towards 'leave'. I asked her why, she replied that the EU protects workers rights. I said that we could protect those outside the EU anyway. "What under the Tories ?!" was her comeback ! I then replied that Gov'ts would come and go of all colours for the ~ 40 years the vote will/should be valid for - the current Gov't shouldn't be the basis of the decision tbh ^_~
Pretty undemocratic to support the EU on the basis that it imposes legislation that the electorate wouldn't actually choose via the ballot box.
That's the entire reason that Labour started to support them if Peter Hitchens documentary "This Sceptic Isle" is to be believed
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
That will suit LEAVE perfectly
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations.
Not a chance I'm afraid, @Blackburn63. Most people will not care about the renegotiation or lack of it one bit. It will swing only the smallest number of votes (Mine perhaps if Dave gets alot more than he looks to be at the moment), but the general public won't know or care for the details !
Given how tight the polls are, it wouldn't take much, though, would it.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
I think it sums up the hopelessness of the Tory situation in Scotland. They've had one good female leader after another and it's done them no good whatsoever.
'One nation' Dave's approval ratings north of the border look truly abysmal.
To the fellow who thinks that Labour will hold Edinburgh Northern & Leith, which happens to be my constituency:
Malcolm Chisholm will retire at the election and the Labour candidate is Lesley Hinds... Yeah, that woman who messed up the trams. Back in August I was having a pint on the Royal Mile and I fell to talking to a bloke from East Kilbride who must be the last remaining Lib-Dem member in that part of the country. As soon as I told him where I lived her started chortling and said that EN&L was the constituency where they hoped to save their deposit, all thanks to Lesley Hinds.
Needless to say, I will be voting SNP in the seat. Probably Labour for the Lothian list.
To the fellow who thinks that Labour will hold Edinburgh Northern & Leith, which happens to be my constituency:
Malcolm Chisholm will retire at the election and the Labour candidate is Lesley Hinds... Yeah, that woman who messed up the trams. Back in August I was having a pint on the Royal Mile and I fell to talking to a bloke from East Kilbride who must be the last remaining Lib-Dem member in that part of the country. As soon as I told him where I lived her started chortling and said that EN&L was the constituency where they hoped to save their deposit, all thanks to Lesley Hinds.
Needless to say, I will be voting SNP in the seat. Probably Labour for the Lothian list.
Ha! So there is a logical reason for voting SNP constituency and Labour list!
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations. Beyond that we have another thread brewing full of sound and fury and nothing else. The EU referendum is going to be one big massive turn off at this rate.
That will suit LEAVE perfectly
The result of the referendum will be based on the results of the negotiations.
Not a chance I'm afraid, @Blackburn63. Most people will not care about the renegotiation or lack of it one bit. It will swing only the smallest number of votes (Mine perhaps if Dave gets alot more than he looks to be at the moment), but the general public won't know or care for the details !
Exactly my point, the OUTERs are far more determined than the INNERs, ambivalence is great news for us.
The minor details of negotiation and outcome are lost on the majority of the electorate, they will follow their instincts, and those most likely to vote are those who want to change things in this instance.
IN is still favourite but the gap is closing. Remember when Brown delayed the election and was called frit? That's what will happen with Dave.
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
The misses told me she wasn't happy that I was veering towards 'leave'. I asked her why, she replied that the EU protects workers rights. I said that we could protect those outside the EU anyway. "What under the Tories ?!" was her comeback ! I then replied that Gov'ts would come and go of all colours for the ~ 40 years the vote will/should be valid for - the current Gov't shouldn't be the basis of the decision tbh ^_~
Pretty undemocratic to support the EU on the basis that it imposes legislation that the electorate wouldn't actually choose via the ballot box.
That's the entire reason that Labour started to support them if Peter Hitchens documentary "This Sceptic Isle" is to be believed
Worth a look
She couldn't believe it when she was agreeing with him on the last QT !
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
We're not supposed to discuss banning, but his account suddenly appeared as banned, and I've no idea why: his posts that morning seemed innocuous enough, unless one was deleted. He then came back as JEO2, and I haven't seen anything from him since.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
I think it sums up the hopelessness of the Tory situation in Scotland. They've had one good female leader after another and it's done them no good whatsoever.
'One nation' Dave's approval ratings north of the border look truly abysmal.
Is it just me, or are posts discussing other posters being 'disappeared'? No names mentioned as the ban hammer seems to be hovering over our collective heads at the mo.
Sweden has reinstated border controls in a bid to gain control over the massive influx of migrants arriving in the country. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven insisted: "This is not a fence. We need to make sure that we have control ... We have to make sure we know who is coming to Sweden"...
Police began carrying out identification checks on passengers travelling on trains crossing the bridge over the Oresund strait from Denmark, an AFP correspondent reported.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
She's great in the eyes of the media bubbles in Holyrood and Westminster. Even if you do have a passing interest in Scottish politics, even if you're one of the 20,000 people who watch Scotland 2015, you could watch an entire month of the programme and the Sunday Politics Scotland and never see Ruth Davidson once.
She is the leader of a minor party which gets coverage in newspapers no-one reads (the Scotsman sells about 15,000 copies a week) and gets very limited TV coverage. I think people outside Scotland don't really get it, To the public, Sturgeon *IS* Scottish politics right now, she's utterly dominant and dominating.
A couple of genuine questions from an Englishman with Scottish ancestry (1) does NS's dominance make her more or less vulnerable to any "bad news"? (2) it is blindingly obvious that NS is extremely popular with the considerable majority of Scots (not my friends & family I have to say) but to what extent is SNP popularity dependent upon hers?
Is it just me, or are posts discussing other posters being 'disappeared'? No names mentioned as the ban hammer seems to be hovering over our collective heads at the mo.
I'm not a Farage supporter but he is not a Fascist. Fini leads a party which is the explicit descendant of Mussolini's party. I think there is a significant difference - and I'm surprised (and a little disappointed, TBH) - that you should not.
It's that kind of lazy thinking which infuriates me. Fascism is a specific political creed, a nasty one. Being against the EU or unlimited immigration does not make one a fascist.
As ever Orwell had it right: "The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies "something not desirable"."
FPTP may have something to do with it but is not the main reason. We are a largely pragmatic bottom up sort of a county where practicality matters more than theory. Partly as a result of that (and many other factors) we have not been prey to or have resisted the furiously murderous passions which have enveloped other European countries despite being, often, subject to the same political and economic whirlwinds. That is to Britain's credit and something to be proud of. It does sometimes feel that those who are in favour of the EU think that Britain's pride in itself is somehow a bad thing.
Aren't you making my point? I'm not that expert on Italian politics, but Mussolini is a long time ago, and parties evolve. I'd be surprised if most of the supporters of Fini's party could define, let alone support, the specific creed of fascism. As you say, they might be inhospitable to immigrants or Eurosceptics (both of which seem fair descriptions of typical UKIP voters), but that doesn't make them fascists.
I agree that Britain is more pragmatic than most European countries, and it insulates us against violence extremism, and as you say that's something to be proud of. Unfortunately that also makes us pragmatic about a level of xenophobia which would suprise most people (though not the minority of Front National voters, of course) in many Western European countries. The Sun is quite mainstream in Britain; its counterpart in Germany, Bild-Zeitung, is a rare exception, and it doesn't really have a counterpart at all in France or Denmark.
I'm not saying that the balance is bad - the benefits of pragmatism are strong. But overall the same currents of opinion that we have here are recognisable in every Western European country, and it's a mistake if we think we're either far superior or far worse - we're a bit different, but probably not as different as we think.
To the fellow who thinks that Labour will hold Edinburgh Northern & Leith, which happens to be my constituency:
There is even less chance of Labour holding EN&L at Holyrood than there was in the General Election. The boundaries of EN&L are different for Holyrood than they are for Westminster
Westminster Edinburgh North & Leith takes in the New town city centre, Stock Bridge, Trinity, Fettess and all those million pound town houses. Holyrood Edinburgh North and Leith ditches the city centre, Stock Bridge, Fettes, Craigleith and all those pricey Inverleith town houses and instead takes in more Blackhall and err Leith into the constituency.
If your working theory is that C2DEs vote SNP then the Holyrood version of EN&L massively reduces the number of ABC1s and boosts the number of C2DEs
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
The misses told me she wasn't happy that I was veering towards 'leave'. I asked her why, she replied that the EU protects workers rights. I said that we could protect those outside the EU anyway. "What under the Tories ?!" was her comeback ! I then replied that Gov'ts would come and go of all colours for the ~ 40 years the vote will/should be valid for - the current Gov't shouldn't be the basis of the decision tbh ^_~
Pretty undemocratic to support the EU on the basis that it imposes legislation that the electorate wouldn't actually choose via the ballot box.
That's the entire reason that Labour started to support them if Peter Hitchens documentary "This Sceptic Isle" is to be believed
Worth a look
She couldn't believe it when she was agreeing with him on the last QT !
I was nodding my head vigorously to Hitchens far too much for my comfort when he was on QT.
It's pretty vital for anyone looking to bet on Holyrood constituency results to understand the difference between the Westminster and Holyrood boundaries.
Should be noted that Willie Rennie and Tim Farron don't even rate a question about their popularity. Suspect both would be over 80% No Idea Who They Are.
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
We're not supposed to discuss banning, but his account suddenly appeared as banned, and I've no idea why: his posts that morning seemed innocuous enough, unless one was deleted. He then came back as JEO2, and I haven't seen anything from him since.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
Not for me to say whether bans are right or wrong. I just think it must be frustrating to be banned without any warning or explanation when you can't see what you did that was wrong. Sometimes, when people have been banned, I could see it coming a mile off. Other occasions have left me perplexed.
(And if I say much more, I'll probably be banned myself. That is, if I haven't already overstepped the mark. Hope not. Still, at least I would get a bit more work done. )
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
We're not supposed to discuss banning, but his account suddenly appeared as banned, and I've no idea why: his posts that morning seemed innocuous enough, unless one was deleted. He then came back as JEO2, and I haven't seen anything from him since.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
Aropos of this, I have always had a feeling that JEO was a reincarnated Socrates. One is a Tory turned Kipper, the other is a Tory with Kipper sympathies. Both just seem to have extremely similar posting styles and concerns.
I've mentioned it once before and been contradicted, not sure on what basis. I am not insisting I am right on this, I could well be totally wrong.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
She's great in the eyes of the media bubbles in Holyrood and Westminster. Even if you do have a passing interest in Scottish politics, even if you're one of the 20,000 people who watch Scotland 2015, you could watch an entire month of the programme and the Sunday Politics Scotland and never see Ruth Davidson once.
She is the leader of a minor party which gets coverage in newspapers no-one reads (the Scotsman sells about 15,000 copies a week) and gets very limited TV coverage. I think people outside Scotland don't really get it, To the public, Sturgeon *IS* Scottish politics right now, she's utterly dominant and dominating.
A couple of genuine questions from an Englishman with Scottish ancestry (1) does NS's dominance make her more or less vulnerable to any "bad news"? (2) it is blindingly obvious that NS is extremely popular with the considerable majority of Scots (not my friends & family I have to say) but to what extent is SNP popularity dependent upon hers?
1) I think she is less vulnerable to bad news. Obviously it would depend on how bad but the run of the will stuff that has been chucked at her has slid off with barely a mark.
2) Prior to NS it was assumed that the SNPs popularity was entirely down to Alex Salmond (which explained by SLab spent the entirety of the last decade attacking Alex Salmond rather than the SNP). So I don't think it is a given that the SNP's popularity is dependent on her.
Bascially, people who hate the SNP (and who really, really hate(d) Salmond) are bemused about why everyone doesn't hate the SNP so construct their attacks in incoherent ways that must look self-evident to them but causes other people to just shrug their shoulders.
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
We're not supposed to discuss banning, but his account suddenly appeared as banned, and I've no idea why: his posts that morning seemed innocuous enough, unless one was deleted. He then came back as JEO2, and I haven't seen anything from him since.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
I have chased this a couple of times. Sadly I've heard nothing back yet.
I assume if he's not posting on here he hasn't heard yet.
"The European Union could break up within months as the migration crisis pushes member states to take unilateral measures to protect their borders, the bloc’s longest-serving foreign minister said yesterday. The warning from Jean Asselborn of Luxembourg came as 30,000 refugees and migrants prepared to pour into the Balkans. The latest wave is made up mainly of people who were stranded on the Greek islands last week by a four-day ferry strike."
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
She's great in the eyes of the media bubbles in Holyrood and Westminster. Even if you do have a passing interest in Scottish politics, even if you're one of the 20,000 people who watch Scotland 2015, you could watch an entire month of the programme and the Sunday Politics Scotland and never see Ruth Davidson once.
She is the leader of a minor party which gets coverage in newspapers no-one reads (the Scotsman sells about 15,000 copies a week) and gets very limited TV coverage. I think people outside Scotland don't really get it, To the public, Sturgeon *IS* Scottish politics right now, she's utterly dominant and dominating.
A couple of genuine questions from an Englishman with Scottish ancestry (1) does NS's dominance make her more or less vulnerable to any "bad news"? (2) it is blindingly obvious that NS is extremely popular with the considerable majority of Scots (not my friends & family I have to say) but to what extent is SNP popularity dependent upon hers?
1) I think she is less vulnerable to bad news. Obviously it would depend on how bad but the run of the will stuff that has been chucked at her has slid off with barely a mark.
2) Prior to NS it was assumed that the SNPs popularity was entirely down to Alex Salmond (which explained by SLab spent the entirety of the last decade attacking Alex Salmond rather than the SNP). So I don't think it is a given that the SNP's popularity is dependent on her.
Bascially, people who hate the SNP (and who really, really hate(d) Salmond) are bemused about why everyone doesn't hate the SNP so construct their attacks in incoherent ways that must look self-evident to them but causes other people to just shrug their shoulders.
Personally I like Nicola Sturgeon a lot more than Salmond who had a smug gitness that frankly needed a punch. Her first step as First Minister was to get rid of the two most useless ministers in Salmond's administration and that impressed me too.
I am resigned to another SNP majority government but I think that the tories will do better and Labour worse than the TNS poll indicates.
It seems very dangerous to me to underestimate your opponent.
That doesn't sound like the Tories' regular MO. Perhaps they're just being prudent, and not wanting to waste money in case it turns out to be AN Other...
There's also been a bit of polling about Corbyn's various gaffes like the National Anthem, I don't see much point focus grouping Corbyn for a while yet, the newspaper polling is quite clear for now.
It seems very dangerous to me to underestimate your opponent.
That doesn't sound like the Tories' regular MO. Perhaps they're just being prudent, and not wanting to waste money in case it turns out to be AN Other...
So Leave need to target the ABC classes in the 35-54 bracket, IMHO.
The younger (than that) won't vote.
Is there evidence that the younger ABC 18-34 don't vote? I'm 33 and have voted in every election since turning 18, I strongly suspect it is the C2DE who are much less likely to vote.
Sweden has reinstated border controls in a bid to gain control over the massive influx of migrants arriving in the country. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven insisted: "This is not a fence. We need to make sure that we have control ... We have to make sure we know who is coming to Sweden"...
Police began carrying out identification checks on passengers travelling on trains crossing the bridge over the Oresund strait from Denmark, an AFP correspondent reported.
I saw it reported this morning that the rationale for this move was that " we were bussing them in from the border but many of them disappeared before registering". That makes it sound like they weren't playing fair. Surely not.
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
We're not supposed to discuss banning, but his account suddenly appeared as banned, and I've no idea why: his posts that morning seemed innocuous enough, unless one was deleted. He then came back as JEO2, and I haven't seen anything from him since.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
Not for me to say whether bans are right or wrong. I just think it must be frustrating to be banned without any warning or explanation when you can't see what you did that was wrong. Sometimes, when people have been banned, I could see it coming a mile off. Other occasions have left me perplexed.
(And if I say much more, I'll probably be banned myself. That is, if I haven't already overstepped the mark. Hope not. Still, at least I would get a bit more work done. )
The general rule is: don't piss off OGH.
Which I'm sure I've done in the past. The difference is he knows who I am and I've been around a very long time, so seems to put up with me - so far!
On balance this should help us with inflation, but be bad news as far as government revenues are concerned. Not terribly good news for an independent Scotland. Correct my maths but 44 is a lot less than 150.
If you're not a Europhile when you're a teenager you've no heart, If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
What happens if you're 28 ?
You are allowed to be undecided!
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
The misses told me she wasn't happy that I was veering towards 'leave'. I asked her why, she replied that the EU protects workers rights. I said that we could protect those outside the EU anyway. "What under the Tories ?!" was her comeback ! I then replied that Gov'ts would come and go of all colours for the ~ 40 years the vote will/should be valid for - the current Gov't shouldn't be the basis of the decision tbh ^_~
Pretty undemocratic to support the EU on the basis that it imposes legislation that the electorate wouldn't actually choose via the ballot box.
37% does not represent the choice of the electorate.
And on this issue, UKIP counts with the rest so you can't even use that cheat.
On balance this should help us with inflation, but be bad news as far as government revenues are concerned. Not terribly good news for an independent Scotland. Correct my maths but 44 is a lot less than 150.
Good news overall for the UK, terrible news for Canada and some other places. Would have been an unmitigated disaster for an independent Scotland.
Yougov have just published a poll for Prospect, conducted on 19th October, showing Remain 42% to Leave 40%, with the usual differences by age, class, and political outlook.
So Leave need to target the ABC classes in the 35-54 bracket, IMHO.
The younger (than that) won't vote.
Is there evidence that the younger ABC 18-34 don't vote? I'm 33 and have voted in every election since turning 18, I strongly suspect it is the C2DE who are much less likely to vote.
I think students generally have a poor voting record.
Although differences by gender aren't huge, older women tend to be more Eurosceptic than older men, whereas the reverse is true among younger men and women.
Sweden has reinstated border controls in a bid to gain control over the massive influx of migrants arriving in the country. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven insisted: "This is not a fence. We need to make sure that we have control ... We have to make sure we know who is coming to Sweden"...
Police began carrying out identification checks on passengers travelling on trains crossing the bridge over the Oresund strait from Denmark, an AFP correspondent reported.
The end of Schengen would be a good thing as far as the UK is concerned. However it's 'end' is likely to be just a 'suspension' not a total repeal.
Yougov have just published a poll for Prospect, conducted on 19th October, showing Remain 42% to Leave 40%, with the usual differences by age, class, and political outlook.
Yougov are usually more favourable to Leave than other pollsters as shown in a thread recently.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
I think it sums up the hopelessness of the Tory situation in Scotland. They've had one good female leader after another and it's done them no good whatsoever.
'One nation' Dave's approval ratings north of the border look truly abysmal.
Being English in Scotland makes you unelectable to public office in Scotland; this does not apply to Scots in England. A Scot even gets elected mayor of Newham and subsidises the local football club's cost of playing at the Olympic Stadium. There are of course many examples. I'd be interested if anyone knows of an Englishman being elected to public office in Scotland.
Anyone know what has happened to JEO? Casino Royale mentioned something about a possible banning yesterday. Has he actually been banned for some reason? A shame, if so.
We're not supposed to discuss banning, but his account suddenly appeared as banned, and I've no idea why: his posts that morning seemed innocuous enough, unless one was deleted. He then came back as JEO2, and I haven't seen anything from him since.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
Aropos of this, I have always had a feeling that JEO was a reincarnated Socrates. One is a Tory turned Kipper, the other is a Tory with Kipper sympathies. Both just seem to have extremely similar posting styles and concerns.
I've mentioned it once before and been contradicted, not sure on what basis. I am not insisting I am right on this, I could well be totally wrong.
I am pretty sure but not 100% that JEO was not Socrates. Socrates and I were extremely close in most of our opinions and I did not get the same vibe from JEO although I did agree with much of what he said.
Also, that's a surprisingly weak personal rating for Ruth Davidson given we're always told how great she is.
She's great in the eyes of the media bubbles in Holyrood and Westminster. Even if you do have a passing interest in Scottish politics, even if you're one of the 20,000 people who watch Scotland 2015, you could watch an entire month of the programme and the Sunday Politics Scotland and never see Ruth Davidson once.
She is the leader of a minor party which gets coverage in newspapers no-one reads (the Scotsman sells about 15,000 copies a week) and gets very limited TV coverage. I think people outside Scotland don't really get it, To the public, Sturgeon *IS* Scottish politics right now, she's utterly dominant and dominating.
A couple of genuine questions from an Englishman with Scottish ancestry (1) does NS's dominance make her more or less vulnerable to any "bad news"? (2) it is blindingly obvious that NS is extremely popular with the considerable majority of Scots (not my friends & family I have to say) but to what extent is SNP popularity dependent upon hers?
Both the party and the leader are popular, jointly and separately.
The SNP as a party have done a magnificent job. The overall position of the NHS, Police, Education (what the newspapers try and find specific metrics to bash the SNP over) are all substantially better in totalis than the same service in England.
Nicola (who I met a few times about 15 years ago and had quite a few mutual acquaintances) has gone from being a bit of a prickly pear with limited social skills to being a warm, friendly and engaging individual and in the public mind can do little wrong.
There probably isn't a conceivable shock that could occur to derail this at the moment. The Tories will never be an option, Labour and the Liberals have not just bad but utterly abysmal records in government. This makes the leader almost irrelevant. Until people don't just want change but have actually FORGOTTEN the record of Labour and the Liberals then this cannot change.
I'm not a Farage supporter but he is not a Fascist. Fini leads a party which is the explicit descendant of Mussolini's party. I think there is a significant difference - and I'm surprised (and a little disappointed, TBH) - that you should not.
It's that kind of lazy thinking which infuriates me. Fascism is a specific political creed, a nasty one. Being against the EU or unlimited immigration does not make one a fascist.
As ever Orwell had it right: "The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies "something not desirable"."
FPTP may have something to do with it but is not the main reason. We are a largely pragmatic bottom up sort of a county where practicality matters more than theory. Partly as a result of that (and many other factors) we have not been prey to or have resisted the furiously murderous passions which have enveloped other European countries despite being, often, subject to the same political and economic whirlwinds. That is to Britain's credit and something to be proud of. It does sometimes feel that those who are in favour of the EU think that Britain's pride in itself is somehow a bad thing.
Aren't you making my point? I'm not that expert on Italian politics, but Mussolini is a long time ago, and parties evolve. I'd be surprised if most of the supporters of Fini's party could define, let alone support, the specific creed of fascism. As you say, they might be inhospitable to immigrants or Eurosceptics (both of which seem fair descriptions of typical UKIP voters), but that doesn't make them fascists.
I agree that Britain is more pragmatic than most European countries, and it insulates us against violence extremism, and as you say that's something to be proud of. Unfortunately that also makes us pragmatic about a level of xenophobia which would suprise most people (though not the minority of Front National voters, of course) in many Western European countries. The Sun is quite mainstream in Britain; its counterpart in Germany, Bild-Zeitung, is a rare exception, and it doesn't really have a counterpart at all in France or Denmark.
I'm not saying that the balance is bad - the benefits of pragmatism are strong. But overall the same currents of opinion that we have here are recognisable in every Western European country, and it's a mistake if we think we're either far superior or far worse - we're a bit different, but probably not as different as we think.
I think you define your lack of expertise too narrowly.
So Leave need to target the ABC classes in the 35-54 bracket, IMHO.
The younger (than that) won't vote.
Is there evidence that the younger ABC 18-34 don't vote? I'm 33 and have voted in every election since turning 18, I strongly suspect it is the C2DE who are much less likely to vote.
I think students generally have a poor voting record.
34 year olds are not students. I suspect graduates have a better voting record than non-grads of the same age.
I think Nicola Sturgeon is to the SNP now, as Margaret Thatcher was to the Conservatives in the 80s.
To a certain extent. Sturgeon (as, by definition the entire SNP) are conviction politicians which have not existed at the national level since Thatcher. The idea of persuading people to accept your argument instead of just changing your tune based on the latest opinion polling is anathema to the current generation of politicians.
However, the Sturgeon isn't a 100% conviction politician like Thatcher was. She will compromise on non core issues and bend with the wind. But compared to a Cameron or Miliband it is like night and day.
Comments
ICAMI
New GQRR poll
Cameron succeeds in negotiating a better deal from the EU, he adds 10 points to remain
http://huff.to/1Qx3aGv
‘Careless skier’ Merkel has set off migrant avalanche, says German minister http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4612197.ece
In response to NickPalmer who said (FPT)
"I think it's largely FPTP that prevents very similar voting patterns in Britain (and would you feel that Farage is really worlds apart from Fini?). I'd put Britain somewhere in the upper middle of the European pack with respect to tolerance of races, creeds, etc. - behind Germany and Scandinavia, ahead of France and many Eastern European countries. There is more hostility to consistent tolerance (which critics call "political correctness") in Britain than on much of the Continent - in a funny sort of way, our relaxed culture makes us more tolerant of intolerance ("it was only a joke", "he's not altogether wrong", "it's understandable", etc.)."
I'm not a Farage supporter but he is not a Fascist. Fini leads a party which is the explicit descendant of Mussolini's party. I think there is a significant difference - and I'm surprised (and a little disappointed, TBH) - that you should not.
It's that kind of lazy thinking which infuriates me. Fascism is a specific political creed, a nasty one. Being against the EU or unlimited immigration does not make one a fascist.
As ever Orwell had it right: "The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies "something not desirable"."
FPTP may have something to do with it but is not the main reason. We are a largely pragmatic bottom up sort of a county where practicality matters more than theory. Partly as a result of that (and many other factors) we have not been prey to or have resisted the furiously murderous passions which have enveloped other European countries despite being, often, subject to the same political and economic whirlwinds. That is to Britain's credit and something to be proud of. It does sometimes feel that those who are in favour of the EU think that Britain's pride in itself is somehow a bad thing.
Come on,. the prices cant be that good (or do you only play when a poll comes out and you can pick a bookie off? You know who you are)
Oldham by election
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 11/2
10-15 5/2
15-20 5/2
20-25 11/2
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
Match bets
Ukip 1/6 vs Con 7/2
Con 1/6 vs Libs 7/2
Labour winning margin uo 15.5 5/6
http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/13847558.Leader_Ian_Hudspeth_on_the_latest_round_of_cuts_facing_the_county_council/?ref=mr&lp=3
SNP to win 68 out of 73 constituency seats.
Labour to hold Edinburgh Northern and gain Edinburgh Southern
Tories to hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Lib Dems to hold both Orkney and Shetland.
Constituency vote shares:
SNP 52%
Labour 27%
Tories 13%
Lib Dems 6%
(This probably counts as an optimistic prediction from SLAB's point of view)
She is the leader of a minor party which gets coverage in newspapers no-one reads (the Scotsman sells about 15,000 copies a week) and gets very limited TV coverage. I think people outside Scotland don't really get it, To the public, Sturgeon *IS* Scottish politics right now, she's utterly dominant and dominating.
Also, it might seem strange to suggest SLAB could make a gain in a landslide defeat, but Edinburgh Southern still had a big LibDem vote to squeeze in 2011 (which will presumably be more unionist-leaning).
Sturgeon is more popular with LABOUR supporters than Kezia Dugdale is.
Good to see you're still clinging on to meaningless subsamples.
If you're still one when you're 40 you've no brains
Is your monicker because you like the group Pulp?
Not a chance I'm afraid, @Blackburn63. Most people will not care about the renegotiation or lack of it one bit. It will swing only the smallest number of votes (Mine perhaps if Dave gets alot more than he looks to be at the moment), but the general public won't know or care for the details !
BREXIT
Lads tote and sky 1/2
bwin 21/10
Is that a free fiver for 305?
Innocent face.
2. When does the LD polling reach the peak of an asterix?
Worth a look
'One nation' Dave's approval ratings north of the border look truly abysmal.
Malcolm Chisholm will retire at the election and the Labour candidate is Lesley Hinds... Yeah, that woman who messed up the trams. Back in August I was having a pint on the Royal Mile and I fell to talking to a bloke from East Kilbride who must be the last remaining Lib-Dem member in that part of the country. As soon as I told him where I lived her started chortling and said that EN&L was the constituency where they hoped to save their deposit, all thanks to Lesley Hinds.
Needless to say, I will be voting SNP in the seat. Probably Labour for the Lothian list.
The minor details of negotiation and outcome are lost on the majority of the electorate, they will follow their instincts, and those most likely to vote are those who want to change things in this instance.
IN is still favourite but the gap is closing. Remember when Brown delayed the election and was called frit? That's what will happen with Dave.
Either he or CR asked if it was a geographic issue due to where he was posting from.
If he has been banned, then it's a shame. Let's hope it's not a long one.
(And on that basis, have totally broken the rule not discuss bans ... )
This was the result 2 days later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
Not even close.
Why do people still bother to waste their money this way?
(Yes, this does mean I do not like what they have found. But still.)
Edit: For that matter, 5% don't know who Nicola Sturgeon is!
That's the one.
I agree that Britain is more pragmatic than most European countries, and it insulates us against violence extremism, and as you say that's something to be proud of. Unfortunately that also makes us pragmatic about a level of xenophobia which would suprise most people (though not the minority of Front National voters, of course) in many Western European countries. The Sun is quite mainstream in Britain; its counterpart in Germany, Bild-Zeitung, is a rare exception, and it doesn't really have a counterpart at all in France or Denmark.
I'm not saying that the balance is bad - the benefits of pragmatism are strong. But overall the same currents of opinion that we have here are recognisable in every Western European country, and it's a mistake if we think we're either far superior or far worse - we're a bit different, but probably not as different as we think.
Westminster Edinburgh North & Leith takes in the New town city centre, Stock Bridge, Trinity, Fettess and all those million pound town houses. Holyrood Edinburgh North and Leith ditches the city centre, Stock Bridge, Fettes, Craigleith and all those pricey Inverleith town houses and instead takes in more Blackhall and err Leith into the constituency.
If your working theory is that C2DEs vote SNP then the Holyrood version of EN&L massively reduces the number of ABC1s and boosts the number of C2DEs
http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Something to do with Chinese steel?...
The younger (than that) won't vote.
She's far nicer than Sturgeon.
(And if I say much more, I'll probably be banned myself. That is, if I haven't already overstepped the mark. Hope not. Still, at least I would get a bit more work done. )
I've mentioned it once before and been contradicted, not sure on what basis. I am not insisting I am right on this, I could well be totally wrong.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTj3Xg1WwAEDYoN.png
It seems very dangerous to me to underestimate your opponent.
2) Prior to NS it was assumed that the SNPs popularity was entirely down to Alex Salmond (which explained by SLab spent the entirety of the last decade attacking Alex Salmond rather than the SNP). So I don't think it is a given that the SNP's popularity is dependent on her.
Bascially, people who hate the SNP (and who really, really hate(d) Salmond) are bemused about why everyone doesn't hate the SNP so construct their attacks in incoherent ways that must look self-evident to them but causes other people to just shrug their shoulders.
I assume if he's not posting on here he hasn't heard yet.
The warning from Jean Asselborn of Luxembourg came as 30,000 refugees and migrants prepared to pour into the Balkans. The latest wave is made up mainly of people who were stranded on the Greek islands last week by a four-day ferry strike."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4610721.ece
I am resigned to another SNP majority government but I think that the tories will do better and Labour worse than the TNS poll indicates.
Which I'm sure I've done in the past. The difference is he knows who I am and I've been around a very long time, so seems to put up with me - so far!
None of us must ever forget it's his blog.
Men 18-54 ABC1: Remain 53%, Leave 31%
Women 18-54 ABC1: Remain 52%, Leave 27%
Men 55+ ABC1: Remain 46%, Leave 46%
Women 55+ ABC1: Remain 39%, Leave 45%
Men 18-54 C2DE: Remain 38%, Leave 42%
Women 18-54 C2DE: Remain 34%, Leave 34%
Men 55+ C2DE: Remain 30%, Leave 59%
Women 55+ C2DE: Remain 22%, Leave 57%
https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/lpha0zg5y4k1t4sa2czfuczv7dw0h3wb
And on this issue, UKIP counts with the rest so you can't even use that cheat.
I hope both come back eventually.
The SNP as a party have done a magnificent job. The overall position of the NHS, Police, Education (what the newspapers try and find specific metrics to bash the SNP over) are all substantially better in totalis than the same service in England.
Nicola (who I met a few times about 15 years ago and had quite a few mutual acquaintances) has gone from being a bit of a prickly pear with limited social skills to being a warm, friendly and engaging individual and in the public mind can do little wrong.
There probably isn't a conceivable shock that could occur to derail this at the moment. The Tories will never be an option, Labour and the Liberals have not just bad but utterly abysmal records in government. This makes the leader almost irrelevant. Until people don't just want change but have actually FORGOTTEN the record of Labour and the Liberals then this cannot change.
However, the Sturgeon isn't a 100% conviction politician like Thatcher was. She will compromise on non core issues and bend with the wind. But compared to a Cameron or Miliband it is like night and day.