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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,564

    Sean_F said:

    There's a substantial Anyone But Labour vote in Rotherham, Doncaster, Tyneside, Rochdale etc. It's coalescing around UKIP. It can take 30% or so of the vote, but it's not enough to win on its own.

    I find it hard to understand the mentality of people who will knowingly vote to re-elect people who have behaved appallingly in public office. I suppose it's the equivalent of voting Sinn Fein.

    I was chatting to one of UKIP's activists in South Yorkshire about all of this last weekend. He's an old friend, and he said his explanation on why the events in Rotherham had no traction for UKIP in May was that, South Yorkshire Police is probably worst public service organisation in the history of the UK, prior to CSE in Rotherham, they oversaw the events of the Hillsborough disaster and the events at Orgreave. (Which is why UKIP selecting an ex South Yorkshire Copper as their Police Commissioner candidate was a mistake) the blame seems to be directed mostly towards South Yorkshire Police and not the council.

    In the background you've had the Westminster child sex abuse inquiry and lots of ex celebs getting away with sexual abuse, so it's not just abusers in Rotherham who got away with for so long.

    Plus Rotherham is fairly well integrated, so most indigenous white people know people of Pakistani heritage, so they know it's not endemic, that's why, so there's been no race riots.

    The thing that really did get UKIP traction in May was "all those Eastern Europeans coming over here taking jobs" which was uniform among white and non white British voters.

    But it'll be like Scotland, if/when South Yorkshire rejects Labour. It'll be a tsunami, not gradual incrementalism
    You'd think even if they didn't like UKIP, they'd vote Conservative, or Lib Dem, or Independent, to throw out the rotten lot. To my mind, it's the worst local government scandal I can recall.
  • corporeal said:

    kle4 said:

    I sometimes like to think I could pen a piece of at least marginal insight or quality, when pressed I am capable of being more concise than I generally am on here, which is usually unfiltered, unprocessed thoughts, but my mind goes absolutely blank on what topic or new angle I could bring to a header. So on that score I do salute Mr Brind. As I said earlier I think there is the seed of some fair points in here, and I do feel the uncompromisingly Labour view is a legitimate one to explore, even if I don't think the analysis here holds up, but even stringing together a party line in a freshish way, linking it to the topic of the week somehow, is not as easy as it seems.

    Dan Hodges, who I think is a pretty decent writer, particularly when he branches out from his main topics, is to be applauded as well for somehow making 'Ed M is Crap' reasonably readable despite the 300+ times he wrote it.

    There's an old line attributed to a lot of people about I only have time to write a long letter, I'd need much longer to write a short one.

    I keep meaning to get back into the writing side,
    I like your pieces. So do.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    There's a substantial Anyone But Labour vote in Rotherham, Doncaster, Tyneside, Rochdale etc. It's coalescing around UKIP. It can take 30% or so of the vote, but it's not enough to win on its own.

    I find it hard to understand the mentality of people who will knowingly vote to re-elect people who have behaved appallingly in public office. I suppose it's the equivalent of voting Sinn Fein.

    I was chatting to one of UKIP's activists in South Yorkshire about all of this last weekend. He's an old friend, and he said his explanation on why the events in Rotherham had no traction for UKIP in May was that, South Yorkshire Police is probably worst public service organisation in the history of the UK, prior to CSE in Rotherham, they oversaw the events of the Hillsborough disaster and the events at Orgreave. (Which is why UKIP selecting an ex South Yorkshire Copper as their Police Commissioner candidate was a mistake) the blame seems to be directed mostly towards South Yorkshire Police and not the council.

    In the background you've had the Westminster child sex abuse inquiry and lots of ex celebs getting away with sexual abuse, so it's not just abusers in Rotherham who got away with for so long.

    Plus Rotherham is fairly well integrated, so most indigenous white people know people of Pakistani heritage, so they know it's not endemic, that's why, so there's been no race riots.

    The thing that really did get UKIP traction in May was "all those Eastern Europeans coming over here taking jobs" which was uniform among white and non white British voters.

    But it'll be like Scotland, if/when South Yorkshire rejects Labour. It'll be a tsunami, not gradual incrementalism
    You'd think even if they didn't like UKIP, they'd vote Conservative, or Lib Dem, or Independent, to throw out the rotten lot. To my mind, it's the worst local government scandal I can recall.
    Sir Eric Pickles might have saved Labour when he ditched the council leaders and replaced them with some Commissioners.
  • corporeal said:

    kle4 said:

    I sometimes like to think I could pen a piece of at least marginal insight or quality, when pressed I am capable of being more concise than I generally am on here, which is usually unfiltered, unprocessed thoughts, but my mind goes absolutely blank on what topic or new angle I could bring to a header. So on that score I do salute Mr Brind. As I said earlier I think there is the seed of some fair points in here, and I do feel the uncompromisingly Labour view is a legitimate one to explore, even if I don't think the analysis here holds up, but even stringing together a party line in a freshish way, linking it to the topic of the week somehow, is not as easy as it seems.

    Dan Hodges, who I think is a pretty decent writer, particularly when he branches out from his main topics, is to be applauded as well for somehow making 'Ed M is Crap' reasonably readable despite the 300+ times he wrote it.

    There's an old line attributed to a lot of people about I only have time to write a long letter, I'd need much longer to write a short one.

    I keep meaning to get back into the writing side,
    Is always a nightmare to publish your pieces.

    You press publish and something major happens with 30 mins :lol:
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,102
    Sean_F said:



    (snipped)


    They're only 4% of the electorate. It's the other 40-45% who vote Labour who are the puzzle.

    Seems to me that loads of people generally don't make any connections between things that happen. They formed their opinions (perhaps by osmosis) when they were growing up and they're stuck with them.

    So there's no real-world connection for them between putting an X on a ballot sheet and any 'matters arising'. Three months after a local election, they may well have forgotten who won it.
  • Sean_F said:

    There's a substantial Anyone But Labour vote in Rotherham, Doncaster, Tyneside, Rochdale etc. It's coalescing around UKIP. It can take 30% or so of the vote, but it's not enough to win on its own.

    I find it hard to understand the mentality of people who will knowingly vote to re-elect people who have behaved appallingly in public office. I suppose it's the equivalent of voting Sinn Fein.

    I was chatting to one of UKIP's activists in South Yorkshire about all of this last weekend. He's an old friend, and he said his explanation on why the events in Rotherham had no traction for UKIP in May was that, South Yorkshire Police is probably worst public service organisation in the history of the UK, prior to CSE in Rotherham, they oversaw the events of the Hillsborough disaster and the events at Orgreave. (Which is why UKIP selecting an ex South Yorkshire Copper as their Police Commissioner candidate was a mistake) the blame seems to be directed mostly towards South Yorkshire Police and not the council.

    In the background you've had the Westminster child sex abuse inquiry and lots of ex celebs getting away with sexual abuse, so it's not just abusers in Rotherham who got away with for so long.

    Plus Rotherham is fairly well integrated, so most indigenous white people know people of Pakistani heritage, so they know it's not endemic, that's why, so there's been no race riots.

    The thing that really did get UKIP traction in May was "all those Eastern Europeans coming over here taking jobs" which was uniform among white and non white British voters.

    But it'll be like Scotland, if/when South Yorkshire rejects Labour. It'll be a tsunami, not gradual incrementalism
    Hmm.. interesting points but I detect a bit of self delusion in your kipper friend. It would be pointless to point out the significant increase in total employment in the last few years and the fact that in many ways it can be said that we are effectively at full employment now.
    Except by following left wing policies I struggle to see how UKIP expect to capture left wing votes.
    I am not surprised that Orgreave continues to cast a shadow however.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    "Betting Post"

    When the Politico story came out Carson immediately got a big dump on the betting markets, now that the story has collapsed there is a betting opportunity, but be quick Ladbrokes already switched Carson to 12/1 when the story came out from 7/1, but now they switched him at 8/1 as the story collapsed.
    Betfair still has him on 133/10 from 10/1 when the story came out, so be quick.

    An opinion piece in the Times suggests that the Republican delegates are fairly moderate and are likely to select a moderate at the Convention.
    I have no idea if this is true, but for the sake of you punters I thought I would pass it on.
    Apparently some sort of Teapartyphile has won in Kentucky.
    It will be Iowa and New Hampshire which determine the winner as ever, fail to come in the top two in at least one and you are done
    This may be true, however I am only reporting what a Justin Webb is saying in The Times.
    He says 'don't be fooled the loony right won't win'
    He says Obama beat Hillary because 'he accrued delegates in ways her team thought were unimportant'
    He says 'the same "delegate math" on the Republican side makes it much more difficult than you might think for an insurgent to win'
    He quotes someone called Nate Silver (is he reliable?) in support.

    All of the above may be rubbish, but I deem it as my public duty on behalf of impoverished punters to publicise his views.
    I actually tweeted Justin Webb on this today pointing out that his point on Obama is only valid because Obama won Iowa in the first place, had he not he would not have had the required momentum. He tweeted back and agreed Rubio would need a strong performance in one of the early states, probably New Hampshire
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    There's a substantial Anyone But Labour vote in Rotherham, Doncaster, Tyneside, Rochdale etc. It's coalescing around UKIP. It can take 30% or so of the vote, but it's not enough to win on its own.

    I find it hard to understand the mentality of people who will knowingly vote to re-elect people who have behaved appallingly in public office. I suppose it's the equivalent of voting Sinn Fein.

    I was chatting to one of UKIP's activists in South Yorkshire about all of this last weekend. He's an old friend, and he said his explanation on why the events in Rotherham had no traction for UKIP in May was that, South Yorkshire Police is probably worst public service organisation in the history of the UK, prior to CSE in Rotherham, they oversaw the events of the Hillsborough disaster and the events at Orgreave. (Which is why UKIP selecting an ex South Yorkshire Copper as their Police Commissioner candidate was a mistake) the blame seems to be directed mostly towards South Yorkshire Police and not the council.

    In the background you've had the Westminster child sex abuse inquiry and lots of ex celebs getting away with sexual abuse, so it's not just abusers in Rotherham who got away with for so long.

    Plus Rotherham is fairly well integrated, so most indigenous white people know people of Pakistani heritage, so they know it's not endemic, that's why, so there's been no race riots.

    The thing that really did get UKIP traction in May was "all those Eastern Europeans coming over here taking jobs" which was uniform among white and non white British voters.

    But it'll be like Scotland, if/when South Yorkshire rejects Labour. It'll be a tsunami, not gradual incrementalism
    You'd think even if they didn't like UKIP, they'd vote Conservative, or Lib Dem, or Independent, to throw out the rotten lot. To my mind, it's the worst local government scandal I can recall.
    In the SYPC election, UKIP were neck and neck in Rotherham.. it was the rest of South Yorkshire, inc Lib Dem inclined seats with no Lib Dem candidate, that swung it for Labour

    Though that doesn't explain the GE result
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN Iowa GOP poll


    (Though we wait to see whether Carson falls as rapidly as Herman Cain after today's news)

    So Carson escapes unharmed because the exclusive article was more false than his past claims and republicans blame the media.

    As I said, when it comes to the GOP race my advice is actually trustworthy.
    The key test will be the next polls
    Believe me if even MSNBC ( a democratic media bastion) and the Washington Post (another democratic media bastion) say that Politico overdone it and Carson has a point, imagine what republican and conservative media would be saying about it.

    And all this was predicted by me, when I read the story that OGH tweeted I wrote that Carson is safe because even within the article towards it's end Carson in his own book wrote that he never applied to West Point, because he wanted to be a doctor, when that was offered to him at a banquet with Westmorland.

    So the article itself was more misleading and inaccurate than Carson's claims, especially the large screaming title.

    And here is CNN too rejecting the Politico story:

    Dylan Byers ‏@DylanByers 1h1 hour ago
    *Not accurate* in Politico story:

    -Carson claimed to have applied to West Point.
    -Campaign admitted Carson fabricated history.
    Regardless of who spins what today has been negative headlines for Carson, he may still win Iowa but he is not going to be nominee as far as I am concerned
    Actually this may turn out good for Carson because journalists will have to double check their facts before attacking him, and even if they do he can shrug them off a bit by pointing to the botched job Politico did as a "media conspiracy".
    Republicans might even be forced to rally around him given that the CNBC disaster is still very fresh.

    Remember, republican voters are very distrustful and conspiratorial with the media, even a crumb of evidence will be enough to convince them that the "liberal" media are out to get them.
    You were quoting the 'liberal media'
    If even the media that republican voters say that they are "liberal" support Carson on this, then it's end of story.

    The british equivalent would be the Daily Mail supporting Corbyn on a botched attack story by the Sun.
    We will see
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597
    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:



    (snipped)


    They're only 4% of the electorate. It's the other 40-45% who vote Labour who are the puzzle.

    Seems to me that loads of people generally don't make any connections between things that happen. They formed their opinions (perhaps by osmosis) when they were growing up and they're stuck with them.

    So there's no real-world connection for them between putting an X on a ballot sheet and any 'matters arising'. .
    I think that is very probably true. It can be seen in how people may support a policy until they find out who was behind it, and how their own perceptions of their political views, of liberalness and lefty/rightness, may not line up with the reality (eg, is Scotland really as different, politically, than England in left/right terms? Apparently not as much as many believe). People form opinions of what a party is, and how they feel they should vote based on how what a person like they see themselves as is supposed to vote, and so if they have to jump around the political spectrum, as parties do, to support a party, or avoid a party they think they should avoid, they do. Sometimes it might even be, objectively, entirely against their own interests, but it doesn't matter. Political predictor questionnaires usually show me to be pretty politically confused, so I'd like to think I avoid that sort of impulse most of the time, but there's no denying like most people I do lean in specific directions, and likely give some people or parties harder times or easier times than they deserve as a result sometimes.

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    "Betting Post"

    When the Politico story came out Carson immediately got a big dump on the betting markets, now that the story has collapsed there is a betting opportunity, but be quick Ladbrokes already switched Carson to 12/1 when the story came out from 7/1, but now they switched him at 8/1 as the story collapsed.
    Betfair still has him on 133/10 from 10/1 when the story came out, so be quick.

    An opinion piece in the Times suggests that the Republican delegates are fairly moderate and are likely to select a moderate at the Convention.
    I have no idea if this is true, but for the sake of you punters I thought I would pass it on.
    Apparently some sort of Teapartyphile has won in Kentucky.
    It will be Iowa and New Hampshire which determine the winner as ever, fail to come in the top two in at least one and you are done
    This may be true, however I am only reporting what a Justin Webb is saying in The Times.
    He says 'don't be fooled the loony right won't win'
    He says Obama beat Hillary because 'he accrued delegates in ways her team thought were unimportant'
    He says 'the same "delegate math" on the Republican side makes it much more difficult than you might think for an insurgent to win'
    He quotes someone called Nate Silver (is he reliable?) in support.

    All of the above may be rubbish, but I deem it as my public duty on behalf of impoverished punters to publicise his views.
    I actually tweeted Justin Webb on this today pointing out that his point on Obama is only valid because Obama won Iowa in the first place, had he not he would not have had the required momentum. He tweeted back and agreed Rubio would need a strong performance in one of the early states, probably New Hampshire
    My duty is done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097
    On a different note, I see Emily Benn is in the news again after calling for the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn's Head of Policy, Andrew Fisher, for supporting the anarchist Class War Party. After defeat in Worthing in 2010 and Croydon South in 2015 she seems to have had enough of socialism and is now an investment banker for UBS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Benn
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,761
    edited November 2015
    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:



    (snipped)


    They're only 4% of the electorate. It's the other 40-45% who vote Labour who are the puzzle.

    Seems to me that loads of people generally don't make any connections between things that happen. They formed their opinions (perhaps by osmosis) when they were growing up and they're stuck with them.

    So there's no real-world connection for them between putting an X on a ballot sheet and any 'matters arising'. Three months after a local election, they may well have forgotten who won it.
    Voting Labour in places like South Yorkshire is a matter of identity and solidarity. That's why those seats never change.

    Community memory of the Thatcher years still runs deep.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,564
    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:



    (snipped)


    They're only 4% of the electorate. It's the other 40-45% who vote Labour who are the puzzle.

    Seems to me that loads of people generally don't make any connections between things that happen. They formed their opinions (perhaps by osmosis) when they were growing up and they're stuck with them.

    So there's no real-world connection for them between putting an X on a ballot sheet and any 'matters arising'. Three months after a local election, they may well have forgotten who won it.
    I think it's true people can do that.

    But I find it hard to imagine that a Conservative council in a large borough, like Barnet or Trafford, that had behaved like this shower, would get voted back in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,761
    edited November 2015
    chestnut said:

    I think the government could have done - and could do - more on non-EU immigration.

    If the Tories don't get a grip on this issue, it will be their downfall.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/fig4_tcm77-414722.png

    Most of those non-EU immigrants are fee paying, university students.

    Message control is an issue for the Tories.
    And how many go home after they've finished their degrees?

    I think a legitimate immigration reform would be to require all non-EU students to leave the country upon graduation, and then re-apply externally for a 5-year work visa from outwith if they wish to work here after.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    "Betting Post"

    When the Politico story came out Carson immediately got a big dump on the betting markets, now that the story has collapsed there is a betting opportunity, but be quick Ladbrokes already switched Carson to 12/1 when the story came out from 7/1, but now they switched him at 8/1 as the story collapsed.
    Betfair still has him on 133/10 from 10/1 when the story came out, so be quick.

    An opinion piece in the Times suggests that the Republican delegates are fairly moderate and are likely to select a moderate at the Convention.
    I have no idea if this is true, but for the sake of you punters I thought I would pass it on.
    Apparently some sort of Teapartyphile has won in Kentucky.
    It will be Iowa and New Hampshire which determine the winner as ever, fail to come in the top two in at least one and you are done
    This may be true, however I am only reporting what a Justin Webb is saying in The Times.
    He says 'don't be fooled the loony right won't win'
    He says Obama beat Hillary because 'he accrued delegates in ways her team thought were unimportant'
    He says 'the same "delegate math" on the Republican side makes it much more difficult than you might think for an insurgent to win'
    He quotes someone called Nate Silver (is he reliable?) in support.

    All of the above may be rubbish, but I deem it as my public duty on behalf of impoverished punters to publicise his views.
    I actually tweeted Justin Webb on this today pointing out that his point on Obama is only valid because Obama won Iowa in the first place, had he not he would not have had the required momentum. He tweeted back and agreed Rubio would need a strong performance in one of the early states, probably New Hampshire
    My duty is done.
    Yes it is a point of view but as even Justin eventually agreed you need an early start before you can even begin to start calculating the delegates
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    "Betting Post"

    When the Politico story came out Carson immediately got a big dump on the betting markets, now that the story has collapsed there is a betting opportunity, but be quick Ladbrokes already switched Carson to 12/1 when the story came out from 7/1, but now they switched him at 8/1 as the story collapsed.
    Betfair still has him on 133/10 from 10/1 when the story came out, so be quick.

    An opinion piece in the Times suggests that the Republican delegates are fairly moderate and are likely to select a moderate at the Convention.
    I have no idea if this is true, but for the sake of you punters I thought I would pass it on.
    Apparently some sort of Teapartyphile has won in Kentucky.
    It will be Iowa and New Hampshire which determine the winner as ever, fail to come in the top two in at least one and you are done
    This may be true, however I am only reporting what a Justin Webb is saying in The Times.
    He says 'don't be fooled the loony right won't win'
    He says Obama beat Hillary because 'he accrued delegates in ways her team thought were unimportant'
    He says 'the same "delegate math" on the Republican side makes it much more difficult than you might think for an insurgent to win'
    He quotes someone called Nate Silver (is he reliable?) in support.

    All of the above may be rubbish, but I deem it as my public duty on behalf of impoverished punters to publicise his views.
    I actually tweeted Justin Webb on this today pointing out that his point on Obama is only valid because Obama won Iowa in the first place, had he not he would not have had the required momentum. He tweeted back and agreed Rubio would need a strong performance in one of the early states, probably New Hampshire
    My duty is done.
    Someone called Nate Silver ... Just love amateurs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097
    edited November 2015
    On a different note, I see Emily Benn is in the news again after calling for the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn's Head of Policy, Andrew Fisher, for supporting the anarchist Class War Party against her Labour candidacy at the last election. After defeat in Worthing in 2010 and Croydon South in 2015 she seems to have had enough of socialism and is now an investment banker for UBS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Benn

  • HYUFD said:

    On a different note, I see Emily Benn is in the news again after calling for the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn's Head of Policy, Andrew Fisher, for supporting the anarchist Class War Party. After defeat in Worthing in 2010 and Croydon South in 2015 she seems to have had enough of socialism and is now an investment banker for UBS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Benn

    Next move into a hedge fund to make Tony turn in his grave?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What price would betting people say REMAIN to win 50-65% of the vote would be?

    No looking it up!
  • Jeremy Corbyn will not have to kneel for the Queen when he is sworn into Privy Council next week

    Exclusive: Labour leader may still kiss Her Majesty's hand when he is sworn in as a member of the centuries-old institution at Buckingham Palace on Wednesday

    http://bit.ly/1WFRr7S

    As I said at the time, the last thing Her Majesty is interested in is people bowing and scraping before her. No doubt she will have her hearing aid turned up when he affirms to the oath however. If I were MI5 I would be listening in closely too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,931
    edited November 2015
    LondonBob said:

    Sandpit said:



    I've never before seen an aviation accident (and I've researched loads over the years, as you may have guessed!) where there's been such a release of information and disinformation all second and third hand in the days afterwards. The nations involved and the possible terrorism and geopolitical angles certainly don't help in this regard.

    Oh I don't know I would say MH17 stands out for, thanks to the criminal incompetency and congenital lying of the Ukrainians. Namely:

    The refusal of the US and Kiev regimes to release satellite and cockpit recordings they may hold.
    The claim the rebels had a BUK, when the official position of both the US and Kiev regimes position, both before, and after the event was that the rebels did not posses medium to long range SAMs.
    The Dutch report debunking the Ukrainian lies that a Russian MIG or Pantsir SAM (they are right, if the rebels were to be given a SAM it would have been a Pantsir not a BUK) shot-down an SU-25 and AN-26 in the days before, again they were shot-down by MANPADS consistent with all other prior shoot-downs.
    The Dutch report confirming that the missile used was one only utilised by the Ukrainian armed forces and long out of service in the Russian armed forces.
    The refusal of the US regime to release their data after John Kerry declared on July 20, 2014, on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that “we picked up the imagery of this launch. We know the trajectory. We know where it came from. We know the timing. And it was exactly at the time that this aircraft disappeared from the radar.” Leaks to CIA alumni Phil Giraldi and Ray McGovern confirming that the evidence held leads to the conclusion the Ukrainian Armed Forces were responsible.
    The failure of the Kiev regime to explain why their BUK units of the 156th Air Defense Regiment had been deployed to the area around the launch site of Zaroshchens’ke with electronic data of the Ukrainian regime turning on the radar that is used by BUK systems for targeting aircraft. Russian Lt. Gen. Kartopolov called on the Ukrainian regime to explain the movements of its Buk systems to sites in eastern Ukraine in mid-July 2014 and why Kiev’s Kupol-M19S18 radars, which coordinate the flight of Buk missiles, showed increased activity leading up to the July 17 shoot-down.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/05/sinai-plane-crash-m17-russia-west

    Yes this tragedy has been handled in far superior manner than the MH17. Absolutely disgraceful.
    I myself lean toward the conclusion that the plane was downed by Ukranian forces, but I fail to see how the missile system edition being out of service with the Russian military would be compelling evidence that the Russians didn't give it tothe rebels. Wouldn't they actually be more likely to give them the out of date stuff?
  • isam said:

    What price would betting people say REMAIN to win 50-65% of the vote would be?

    No looking it up!

    Maybe 1/2? (I haven't looked at the referendum odds at all recently, so this is not influenced by the market, just my view from the fundamentals and polling).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097

    HYUFD said:

    On a different note, I see Emily Benn is in the news again after calling for the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn's Head of Policy, Andrew Fisher, for supporting the anarchist Class War Party. After defeat in Worthing in 2010 and Croydon South in 2015 she seems to have had enough of socialism and is now an investment banker for UBS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Benn

    Next move into a hedge fund to make Tony turn in his grave?
    Yes, just as well her grandfather passed away a few years ago (although he himself was shrewd enough to marry an heiress).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2015

    isam said:

    What price would betting people say REMAIN to win 50-65% of the vote would be?

    No looking it up!

    Maybe 1/2? (I haven't looked at the referendum odds at all recently, so this is not influenced by the market, just my view from the fundamentals and polling).
    Not a million miles away, 8/13

    I hadn't looked at the outright odds actually, PP 8/15 to REMAIN. I had it in my head it was a 2/5 shot
  • MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    "Betting Post"

    When the Politico story came out Carson immediately got a big dump on the betting markets, now that the story has collapsed there is a betting opportunity, but be quick Ladbrokes already switched Carson to 12/1 when the story came out from 7/1, but now they switched him at 8/1 as the story collapsed.
    Betfair still has him on 133/10 from 10/1 when the story came out, so be quick.

    An opinion piece in the Times suggests that the Republican delegates are fairly moderate and are likely to select a moderate at the Convention.
    I have no idea if this is true, but for the sake of you punters I thought I would pass it on.
    Apparently some sort of Teapartyphile has won in Kentucky.
    It will be Iowa and New Hampshire which determine the winner as ever, fail to come in the top two in at least one and you are done
    This may be true, however I am only reporting what a Justin Webb is saying in The Times.
    He says 'don't be fooled the loony right won't win'
    He says Obama beat Hillary because 'he accrued delegates in ways her team thought were unimportant'
    He says 'the same "delegate math" on the Republican side makes it much more difficult than you might think for an insurgent to win'
    He quotes someone called Nate Silver (is he reliable?) in support.

    All of the above may be rubbish, but I deem it as my public duty on behalf of impoverished punters to publicise his views.
    I actually tweeted Justin Webb on this today pointing out that his point on Obama is only valid because Obama on Iowa in the first place, had he not he would not have had the required momentum. He tweeted back and agreed Rubio would need a strong performance in one of the early states, probably New Hampshire
    My duty is done.
    Someone called Nate Silver ... Just love amateurs.
    There was me thinking I was oh so droll...
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,082
    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Sean_F said:

    There's a substantial Anyone But Labour vote in Rotherham, Doncaster, Tyneside, Rochdale etc. It's coalescing around UKIP. It can take 30% or so of the vote, but it's not enough to win on its own.

    I find it hard to understand the mentality of people who will knowingly vote to re-elect people who have behaved appallingly in public office. I suppose it's the equivalent of voting Sinn Fein.

    I was chatting to one of UKIP's activists in South Yorkshire about all of this last weekend. He's an old friend, and he said his explanation on why the events in Rotherham had no traction for UKIP in May was that, South Yorkshire Police is probably worst public service organisation in the history of the UK, prior to CSE in Rotherham, they oversaw the events of the Hillsborough disaster and the events at Orgreave. (Which is why UKIP selecting an ex South Yorkshire Copper as their Police Commissioner candidate was a mistake) the blame seems to be directed mostly towards South Yorkshire Police and not the council.

    In the background you've had the Westminster child sex abuse inquiry and lots of ex celebs getting away with sexual abuse, so it's not just abusers in Rotherham who got away with for so long.

    Plus Rotherham is fairly well integrated, so most indigenous white people know people of Pakistani heritage, so they know it's not endemic, that's why, so there's been no race riots.

    The thing that really did get UKIP traction in May was "all those Eastern Europeans coming over here taking jobs" which was uniform among white and non white British voters.

    But it'll be like Scotland, if/when South Yorkshire rejects Labour. It'll be a tsunami, not gradual incrementalism
    Interesting, but consider what will happen when the voters reject the Conservative party, as they will. The old political certainties are no more. I believe that the Tories have more to lose than any of the other parties.

    I really can't see UKIP replacing them, so I can expect the unexpected to happen.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2015
    slade said:

    ..., the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains)....

    Pah! We had a minister nicknamed Two Brains.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2015
    Edit: NVM found what i was looking for
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Pretty sure they don't have their country's most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy, do they?
  • slade said:

    ..., the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains)....

    Pah! We had a minister nicknamed Two Brains.
    Apparently the universe exists on a brane.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,082

    slade said:

    ..., the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains)....

    Pah! We had a minister nicknamed Two Brains.
    and they never talked to each other.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597
    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Will they actually be any good though? The rest gives a warm fuzzy feeling, and some of it sounds encouraging about the ability to do the job, but isn't proof of it, so the lack of it is conversely not an actual problem so long as the Cabinet is still decent.
  • slade said:

    and they never talked to each other.

    LOL!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Spectre opened here today, so I duly went along and paid my $10.

    Bond movies are guns, girls, gadgets, exotic locations, a great music soundtrack, and a plotline that drags you rapidly along by the scruff of the neck.

    To me Spectre has lost the plot - it seems to have most of the bits except pace but they just don't meld. I found myself looking at my watch and time dragged during the movie.

    One surprise was the return of the gun barrel opening, not used since Pierce Brosnan was 007. Good to see it back.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    chestnut said:

    I think the government could have done - and could do - more on non-EU immigration.

    If the Tories don't get a grip on this issue, it will be their downfall.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/fig4_tcm77-414722.png

    Most of those non-EU immigrants are fee paying, university students.

    Message control is an issue for the Tories.
    And how many go home after they've finished their degrees?

    I think a legitimate immigration reform would be to require all non-EU students to leave the country upon graduation, and then re-apply externally for a 5-year work visa from outwith if they wish to work here after.
    The other thing is to ban overseas students from working more than 16 hours per week, or bringing spouses from doing so either.

  • slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Fascinating. A Nobel Prize winner? In her dreams.
    She is not a Nobel Prize winner and she is not a Nobel Laureate as claimed on her Facebook page a few years ago (she had to withdraw it I think).
    Kirsty Duncan contributed to some work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
    Good luck to Canada is all I can say with this level of both scientific competence and honesty.

    (It turns out she was one of hundreds of people who worked on a 517-page report titled The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Published in 1997, this wasn’t one of the IPCC’s opus climate assessments, but a smaller publication.
    She helped write Chapter 8)
    Hat tip Larry Moran - Professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Toronto AKA the 'Sandwalk' blog
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097
    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Fascinating. A Nobel Prize winner? In her dreams.
    She is not a Nobel Prize winner and she is not a Nobel Laureate as claimed on her Facebook page a few years ago (she had to withdraw it I think).
    Kirsty Duncan contributed to some work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
    Good luck to Canada is all I can say with this level of both scientific competence and honesty.

    (It turns out she was one of hundreds of people who worked on a 517-page report titled The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Published in 1997, this wasn’t one of the IPCC’s opus climate assessments, but a smaller publication.
    She helped write Chapter 8)
    Hat tip Larry Moran - Professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Toronto AKA the 'Sandwalk' blog
    LOL so much for a Nobel prize. By that logic all of us are Nobel winners since the EU won a few years back. Ridiculous.
  • RobD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Fascinating. A Nobel Prize winner? In her dreams.
    She is not a Nobel Prize winner and she is not a Nobel Laureate as claimed on her Facebook page a few years ago (she had to withdraw it I think).
    Kirsty Duncan contributed to some work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
    Good luck to Canada is all I can say with this level of both scientific competence and honesty.

    (It turns out she was one of hundreds of people who worked on a 517-page report titled The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Published in 1997, this wasn’t one of the IPCC’s opus climate assessments, but a smaller publication.
    She helped write Chapter 8)
    Hat tip Larry Moran - Professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Toronto AKA the 'Sandwalk' blog
    LOL so much for a Nobel prize. By that logic all of us are Nobel winners since the EU won a few years back. Ridiculous.
    Garneau did go into space. 3 times.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097
    edited November 2015


    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer. The Nobel Prize Winner only technically won because she was a member of the 2007 International Committee on Climate Change as pointed out below

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
    Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
    Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?
    He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin
  • RobD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Pretty sure they don't have their country's most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy, do they?
    Are you trying to suggest they do not have someone trading on their family name?
  • slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Fascinating. A Nobel Prize winner? In her dreams.
    She is not a Nobel Prize winner and she is not a Nobel Laureate as claimed on her Facebook page a few years ago (she had to withdraw it I think).
    Kirsty Duncan contributed to some work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
    Good luck to Canada is all I can say with this level of both scientific competence and honesty.

    (It turns out she was one of hundreds of people who worked on a 517-page report titled The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Published in 1997, this wasn’t one of the IPCC’s opus climate assessments, but a smaller publication.
    She helped write Chapter 8)
    Hat tip Larry Moran - Professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Toronto AKA the 'Sandwalk' blog
    She clearly suffers from the same delusion as Michael Mann who used to claim he had won the same Nobel prize until he got called on it.
  • New Thread New Thread

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
    Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?
    He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin
    I didn't think he had a moustache. Don't all male porn stars have a moustache? I thought the did, because if not why do so many people accuse me of looking like an aging porn star?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
    Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?
    He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin
    I didn't think he had a moustache. Don't all male porn stars have a moustache? I thought the did, because if not why do so many people accuse me of looking like an aging porn star?
    Could it be because you look like Ron Jeremy plus 50 lbs? ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
    Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?
    Neither exactly set the world on fire but I would say Cameron is the brighter of the two (though I think Trudeau has brought fresh energy to Canadian politics)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,097
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    And Justin Trudeau himself is a former part time high school drama teacher, ski instructor and nightclub bouncer.
    Is that work experience better or worse for a PM than being a PR spiv and then a SpAd?
    He doesn't look big enough for a bouncer. But he's good looking so could be a porn star and has the perfect name - Justin
    From PM to porn star!
  • slade said:

    I have just been looking at the make-up of the Canadian cabinet - as you do. The Transport minister is an astronaut, the science minister is a Nobel prize winner ( and is nicknamed Brains), the defence minister is a Sikh, and the Veterans affairs minster is a paraplegic. And there are 15 men and 15 women. How so different from our own dear Cabinet.

    Fascinating. A Nobel Prize winner? In her dreams.
    She is not a Nobel Prize winner and she is not a Nobel Laureate as claimed on her Facebook page a few years ago (she had to withdraw it I think).
    Kirsty Duncan contributed to some work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
    Good luck to Canada is all I can say with this level of both scientific competence and honesty.

    (It turns out she was one of hundreds of people who worked on a 517-page report titled The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Published in 1997, this wasn’t one of the IPCC’s opus climate assessments, but a smaller publication.
    She helped write Chapter 8)
    Hat tip Larry Moran - Professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Toronto AKA the 'Sandwalk' blog
    She clearly suffers from the same delusion as Michael Mann who used to claim he had won the same Nobel prize until he got called on it.
    I know
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