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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reality check for Osborne’s ambitions

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    Any, more like. It's one of those bizarre bits of Made-Uppery that appears on here that flies in the face of the evidence.

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Ed Austerity Lite Balls will be a happier man this evening.

    https://twitter.com/TimPBouverie/status/662669645825122305/photo/1
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,189
    dr_spyn said:

    Calling Ed Mili's team "absolute shite" may not be the cause of A Fisher's suspension from Lab but won't have helped http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-faces-backlash-after-political-adviser-andrew-fisher-describes-ed-milibands-cabinet-as-a6701911.html

    But he did call Tony Blair and Alastair Campbell "scumbags", so he can't be all bad....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Egypt 'Rescue Flights' Diverted In Mid-Air

    The unexplained U-turns come as Vladimir Putin acts on concerns that terrorists downed a packed Russian jet."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1583031/egypt-rescue-flights-diverted-in-mid-air
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited November 2015
    watford30 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IIRC the Egyptians are using the excuse that they can't warehouse all the luggage from UK bound passengers.

    I mean really. It may be hard, but not exactly a showstopper is it.

    Sandpit said:

    By the way, British planes bound for Sharm appear to be scattered at fields all over the southern Med - what a mess by the Egyptians, they are slowing losing what little goodwill they had left with the British tourist industry.

    I understand from a pilot source that a call went out yesterday to airlines and pretty much every spare passenger plane in the UK was made available for the airliftt from Sharm today. Now the Egyptians have turned all the empty planes around and we all wait some more. If they are delayed too long they'll run into things like crew hours limits which make things worse.

    I bet the UK mil are itching to go in there and sort it out! :D

    They could probably get 20k people out from Sharm to Cyprus in a couple of days if they had to. I've been told that the back of a Herc isn't quite business class but if the job needs doing...
    I bet they're not. The last the RAF want is a C17 exploding over the Med thanks to something nasty slipped into a tourist's backpack.
    One might assume that if the RAF are doing the transport they will be doing their own security. They'll do a better job of it than the usual airport security theatre too - all stand in line to be sniffed up and down by our canine explosives detector!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    LOL #context
    The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has dismissed the Class War tweet, saying it was an innocent satire about the idea of anarchists standing for election.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,189

    Any, more like. It's one of those bizarre bits of Made-Uppery that appears on here that flies in the face of the evidence.

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    I think I would assess my chances of voting for Osborne as leader as "pretty damned remote". I would be much happier for him to stay as Chancellor, the eminence gris to the new Cardinal.... Continuity credibility.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Andrew Fisher suspended but still part of Corbyn's office team.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/06/andrew-fisher-labour-suspends-corbyn-policy-chief?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    Some of the best of Fisher's tweets are being dug out again.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Hell hath no fury...

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 1m1 minute ago
    Am told that the suspension of Andrew Fisher came after complaint to Labour general secretary by Caroline Flint.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    reading the runes I feel a big sense of what is known in these parts as dayjar voo in that we are heading for another crash.Yet another piece of the pack of cards which is about to collapse-credit card debts,As Osborne cuts tax credits and all,debts will just be transferred from the government's deficit to privately held consumer debt.It's all been done before and it failed.If we are not careful 1990s style deflation will persecute us for decades.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34709254

    Oh we are. I've just cashed in my equity portfolio and borrowed at a fixed rate to gross up my balance sheet.

    Banks have learned nothing from their mistakes.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Only beating Boris would make me vote Osborne. A forced choice between prunes and sheeps eyes

    Any, more like. It's one of those bizarre bits of Made-Uppery that appears on here that flies in the face of the evidence.

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    I think I would assess my chances of voting for Osborne as leader as "pretty damned remote". I would be much happier for him to stay as Chancellor, the eminence gris to the new Cardinal.... Continuity credibility.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    In other news OGH notes -

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 55s55 seconds ago
    This is big. Front runner in WH2016 polls Ben Carson admits fabricating West Point scholarship. Methinks he's out. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598?utm_content=buffer45008&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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    isamisam Posts: 41,055
    edited November 2015
    These Labour jokers will be out before long wont they? I instinctively stick up for them, the residue of 30 odd years as a Labour person, but... imagine Corbyn was PM at the mo?

    The usual suspects on here would probably be saying cancelling flights was a big state affront to liberty, but that aside, I wouldn't feel that confident he wasn't half enjoying IS causing mayhem
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,189

    Only beating Boris would make me vote Osborne. A forced choice between prunes and sheeps eyes

    Any, more like. It's one of those bizarre bits of Made-Uppery that appears on here that flies in the face of the evidence.

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    I think I would assess my chances of voting for Osborne as leader as "pretty damned remote". I would be much happier for him to stay as Chancellor, the eminence gris to the new Cardinal.... Continuity credibility.
    Man, you must hate prunes...
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    I would probably support him depending on the field.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    IIRC the Egyptians are using the excuse that they can't warehouse all the luggage from UK bound passengers.

    I mean really. It may be hard, but not exactly a showstopper is it.

    Sandpit said:

    By the way, British planes bound for Sharm appear to be scattered at fields all over the southern Med - what a mess by the Egyptians, they are slowing losing what little goodwill they had left with the British tourist industry.

    I understand from a pilot source that a call went out yesterday to airlines and pretty much every spare passenger plane in the UK was made available for the airliftt from Sharm today. Now the Egyptians have turned all the empty planes around and we all wait some more. If they are delayed too long they'll run into things like crew hours limits which make things worse.

    I bet the UK mil are itching to go in there and sort it out! :D

    They could probably get 20k people out from Sharm to Cyprus in a couple of days if they had to. I've been told that the back of a Herc isn't quite business class but if the job needs doing...
    How well did it work last time the British military went into Sinai?
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    dr_spyn said:

    Ed Austerity Lite Balls will be a happier man this evening.

    https://twitter.com/TimPBouverie/status/662669645825122305/photo/1

    Have I understood this right? Corbyn's own political adviser has been suspended from the labour party? Incredible.

    Never mind, as long as he is still in Momentum he can carry on pretty much as normal.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MTimT said:

    I was on the first commercial flight into Agra [it took about twenty bods in uniform 5hrs to let us leave] and that made Jamaica's concrete henhouse terminal look sophisticated.

    I'm really rather impressed at what HMG have done here - not just fiddling about the FO website guidance, but saying Nope to allowing Sharm's bent security to put our citizens at risk.

    I can't recall a similar decision - when if ever did we last do this at a single airport?

    That the Egyptians are playing silly buggers only hurts themselves - and I say this as someone who is very fond of the place in general and would love to go there again at a safer point.

    Listening to the BBC reporting Russia's decision to stop all flights to all of Egypt they cannot bring themselves to referring to the UK's decision now trying to imply it was a Western decision. They really are disapponted that David Cameron and the UK have been vindicated

    Some years ago I flew into Cairo , on to Luxor and then to Assam before returning to Cairo and they were all third world airports with little security. I would not want to go back to Egypt due to security issues which is a shame as it is a wonderful Country to visit
    Hodeidah is the worst airport I've flown into or out of. Descending (in the Queen's flight Andover) with the RAF pilot telling me the last time he was here he was bombing it), no-one from the control tower responded, so we came in with no green light. No-one on the ground at all. Climbed the control tower steps (the elevator was not working) and found everyone - chewing qat.

    Departure was similar. A single Nissen hut with no AC (ambient temperature 44 celsius and 90%+ humidity) with literally no-one there. The commercial airline plane landed, I got on (only passenger), the plane turned around and took off.
    I flew out of Lumbabashi once. They set a scanner up at the foot of the stairs. Every oncoming passenger had to identify thei bags and watch it scanned in front of them before going into the hold, then they were frisked by the staff and alliwed up the steps.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    Charles said:

    reading the runes I feel a big sense of what is known in these parts as dayjar voo in that we are heading for another crash.Yet another piece of the pack of cards which is about to collapse-credit card debts,As Osborne cuts tax credits and all,debts will just be transferred from the government's deficit to privately held consumer debt.It's all been done before and it failed.If we are not careful 1990s style deflation will persecute us for decades.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34709254

    Oh we are. I've just cashed in my equity portfolio and borrowed at a fixed rate to gross up my balance sheet.

    Banks have learned nothing from their mistakes.
    The best loans are where you're lending to people who don't really need the money :D.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Only beating Boris would make me vote Osborne. A forced choice between prunes and sheeps eyes

    Any, more like. It's one of those bizarre bits of Made-Uppery that appears on here that flies in the face of the evidence.

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    I think I would assess my chances of voting for Osborne as leader as "pretty damned remote". I would be much happier for him to stay as Chancellor, the eminence gris to the new Cardinal.... Continuity credibility.
    Man, you must hate prunes...
    I was wondering who what which delicacy in the analogy!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    reading the runes I feel a big sense of what is known in these parts as dayjar voo in that we are heading for another crash.Yet another piece of the pack of cards which is about to collapse-credit card debts,As Osborne cuts tax credits and all,debts will just be transferred from the government's deficit to privately held consumer debt.It's all been done before and it failed.If we are not careful 1990s style deflation will persecute us for decades.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34709254

    Oh we are. I've just cashed in my equity portfolio and borrowed at a fixed rate to gross up my balance sheet.

    Banks have learned nothing from their mistakes.
    The best loans are where you're lending to people who don't really need the money :D.
    That's a good strategy...

    Providing liquidity to HNWIs is the highest margin, highest RAROC segment in banking :)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    0_o

    Vatican PR at centre of leak allegations reveals she is pregnant thanks to Pope http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4606753.ece
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    reading the runes I feel a big sense of what is known in these parts as dayjar voo in that we are heading for another crash.Yet another piece of the pack of cards which is about to collapse-credit card debts,As Osborne cuts tax credits and all,debts will just be transferred from the government's deficit to privately held consumer debt.It's all been done before and it failed.If we are not careful 1990s style deflation will persecute us for decades.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34709254

    Oh we are. I've just cashed in my equity portfolio and borrowed at a fixed rate to gross up my balance sheet.

    Banks have learned nothing from their mistakes.
    The best loans are where you're lending to people who don't really need the money :D.
    That's a good strategy...

    Providing liquidity to HNWIs is the highest margin, highest RAROC segment in banking :)
    Does that still hold when you've got 2nd charge (45 -> 60%) LTV against their country pile :P ?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823
    These sorts of things (Fisher) will probably be the cause of Corbyn's eventual demise. He's far too fond of just being different for the sake of it, and allying with anyone he perceives to be an underdog or anti-establishment.

    Osborne is still favourite to be next leader in my view, but he needs to somehow find a solution to the tax credit issue as you highlight. The aim of the policy - getting people out of dependency on the government, particularly when that dependency is somewhat of an artificial construct, is spot on, and a really important issue which if tackled successfully should ensure plaudits from all sides for GO. The devil is clearly in the detail though.

    The Lords has to be abolished if they start to become a block for the will of the Commons in a systematic way. Farron can potentially play a part here - he could tell the LD Lords that once in a while is fine, but to play Corbyn's tune for him isn't. It would also potentially give Farron a much needed opportunity to air himself.

    These are interesting times in British politics.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    0_o

    Vatican PR at centre of leak allegations reveals she is pregnant thanks to Pope http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4606753.ece

    Please, please tell me that is a really really badly edited headline!!
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    Alistair said:

    The SNP didn't actually lose apparently

    #context #reasons

    Scott_P said:

    @UK__News: The Scottish Conservatives have beaten the SNP to first place in a by-election in Alex Salmond's constituency. https://t.co/DSrqMsmTQC

    It's a great result for the SNP...

    They put up 1 SNP candidate, 1 SNP candidate got elected.

    To be precise in 2012 the SNP put up 2 candidates and one was elected. They would have expected to pick up this seat but now there are 2 Tories, 1 SNP and 1 Independent councillors.

    This may not be the sign of the end of the SNP surge but along with the Lib Dem success in Loch Ness there are signs that the SNP rural vote is not as strong as they may wish. The SNP have aggressively centralised Government in Scotland. This is beginning to upset the Highlands and Borders especially. I can still see the SNP not winning a majority next year but I can also see the protest vote rising and there may be some surprise losses.





  • Options
    25 mins later
    We have one Conservative voting poster (felix) who states they would probably vote Osborne. Only probably. Where have all the Osbophiles gone? Did they ever exist? Be brave, out yourselves, Mr Brind thinks we have lots on here.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    dr_spyn said:

    In other news OGH notes -

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 55s55 seconds ago
    This is big. Front runner in WH2016 polls Ben Carson admits fabricating West Point scholarship. Methinks he's out. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598?utm_content=buffer45008&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    I read the article and nope Carson is fine, because in the book actually written by Carson and not the ghost writer Cecil Murphey, Carson makes an accurate and true description of him meeting Westmorland at a banquet in Detroit and him turning down a scholarship offer to West Point because he wanted to be a doctor, which is reported at the end of that article.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    reading the runes I feel a big sense of what is known in these parts as dayjar voo in that we are heading for another crash.Yet another piece of the pack of cards which is about to collapse-credit card debts,As Osborne cuts tax credits and all,debts will just be transferred from the government's deficit to privately held consumer debt.It's all been done before and it failed.If we are not careful 1990s style deflation will persecute us for decades.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34709254

    Oh we are. I've just cashed in my equity portfolio and borrowed at a fixed rate to gross up my balance sheet.

    Banks have learned nothing from their mistakes.
    The best loans are where you're lending to people who don't really need the money :D.
    That's a good strategy...

    Providing liquidity to HNWIs is the highest margin, highest RAROC segment in banking :)
    Does that still hold when you've got 2nd charge (45 -> 60%) LTV against their country pile :P ?
    At under 60% LTV you're pretty much fine, whatever happens. You can put a low capital allocation against it and charge a fat margin as it's a second lien.

    Thinking about anyone specific?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,930
    The next leader of the Labour Party. Impressive and Scottish.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c5arswlOSI
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited November 2015

    0_o

    Vatican PR at centre of leak allegations reveals she is pregnant thanks to Pope http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4606753.ece

    Well that's one way of putting it! :smiley:

    Didn't think the Thunderer went for click bait headlines with their paywall, or has the sub gone for a long lunch and let the intern write the headlines..?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It is - and very funny as a result. He prayed for her.
    Charles said:

    0_o

    Vatican PR at centre of leak allegations reveals she is pregnant thanks to Pope http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4606753.ece

    Please, please tell me that is a really really badly edited headline!!
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823
    Charles said:

    0_o

    Vatican PR at centre of leak allegations reveals she is pregnant thanks to Pope http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4606753.ece

    Please, please tell me that is a really really badly edited headline!!
    I think it's a great headline. I can even imagine that the Pope would think so too.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,204

    25 mins later
    We have one Conservative voting poster (felix) who states they would probably vote Osborne. Only probably. Where have all the Osbophiles gone? Did they ever exist? Be brave, out yourselves, Mr Brind thinks we have lots on here.

    I don't think the next Conservative leader will be any of the current frontrunners, and certainly not May or Osborne. It'll be someone much lower down the pecking order.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    Roger said:

    The next leader of the Labour Party. Impressive and Scottish.

    //www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c5arswlOSI

    You think being a Scot is a vote winner for Labour south of the border?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Roger said:

    The next leader of the Labour Party. Impressive and Scottish.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c5arswlOSI

    This is a joke right?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    As you note - clickbaiting within a paywall of 400k is a bit pointless! They do have a few that wander into tabloidese at times though
    Sandpit said:

    0_o

    Vatican PR at centre of leak allegations reveals she is pregnant thanks to Pope http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4606753.ece

    Well that's one way of putting it! :smiley:

    Didn't think the Thunderer went for click bait headlines with their paywall, or has the sub gone for a long lunch and let the intern write the headlines..?
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    Good evening, everyone.

    I hope the weather improves soon. Tired of walking the beast in the rain [especially when she has a hissyfit...].

    On women and the economy, isn't that perhaps due to the risk-aversion and more cautious approach women have in general, compared to men?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Good evening, everyone.

    I hope the weather improves soon. Tired of walking the beast in the rain [especially when she has a hissyfit...].

    On women and the economy, isn't that perhaps due to the risk-aversion and more cautious approach women have in general, compared to men?

    I don't know, women also are less likely to vote, or to hold a position, or an opinion than men according to the opinion polls, could be related.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger That fella is ugly... he will never make it..
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    @Charles Vanilla
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    25 mins later
    We have one Conservative voting poster (felix) who states they would probably vote Osborne. Only probably. Where have all the Osbophiles gone? Did they ever exist? Be brave, out yourselves, Mr Brind thinks we have lots on here.

    I think you,Brind et al miss the point. Osborne has had a bad press before. Yet he's got a lot more power now than you or the likes of Brind could dream of. Politics is a long game.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html
    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.

  • Options

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    I would not be surprised to see Osborne as the next leader. There is a long way to go before writing him off, assuming he is after the job. But the hard job is working out who is a viable alternative. Boris has to get into the cabinet yet. It will be nearly 15 years since the last Tory election. It will be a very dangerous time for the party. Will they swing to an extreme or will they look to the centre. Dont forget candidates have to attract the CLP first to be sure of the last 2 spot.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823
    Speedy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    In other news OGH notes -

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 55s55 seconds ago
    This is big. Front runner in WH2016 polls Ben Carson admits fabricating West Point scholarship. Methinks he's out. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598?utm_content=buffer45008&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    I read the article and nope Carson is fine, because in the book actually written by Carson and not the ghost writer Cecil Murphey, Carson makes an accurate and true description of him meeting Westmorland at a banquet in Detroit and him turning down a scholarship offer to West Point because he wanted to be a doctor, which is reported at the end of that article.
    He does do a lot of name-dropping. Tales of Nobel prize-winners and the like. I wouldn't be surprised if some of this turned out to be invented or exaggerated. Tricky ground if so.


  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    A touch of the Johann Hari's?
    Omnium said:

    Speedy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    In other news OGH notes -

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 55s55 seconds ago
    This is big. Front runner in WH2016 polls Ben Carson admits fabricating West Point scholarship. Methinks he's out. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598?utm_content=buffer45008&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    I read the article and nope Carson is fine, because in the book actually written by Carson and not the ghost writer Cecil Murphey, Carson makes an accurate and true description of him meeting Westmorland at a banquet in Detroit and him turning down a scholarship offer to West Point because he wanted to be a doctor, which is reported at the end of that article.
    He does do a lot of name-dropping. Tales of Nobel prize-winners and the like. I wouldn't be surprised if some of this turned out to be invented or exaggerated. Tricky ground if so.


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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Loyalty or whataboutry breaking out in Labour Party.

    Ken Livingstone ‏@ken4london 45s45 seconds ago
    I hope Labour's General Secretary will now move swiftly over Simon Danczuck and Frank Field. Not one rule for staff and another for MPs
    5 retweets 3 likes
    Reply Retweet 5
    Like 3
    More
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    If they'd been caught out as serial backers of other Party candidates - but otherwise it's pathetically transparent Whataboutery.

    Frankly, I don't give a toss about Mr Fisher - the longer nitwits like him are in positions of power in Labour the better.
    dr_spyn said:

    Loyalty or whataboutry breaking out in Labour Party.

    Ken Livingstone ‏@ken4london 45s45 seconds ago
    I hope Labour's General Secretary will now move swiftly over Simon Danczuck and Frank Field. Not one rule for staff and another for MPs
    5 retweets 3 likes
    Reply Retweet 5
    Like 3
    More

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015
    isam said:

    These Labour jokers will be out before long wont they? I instinctively stick up for them, the residue of 30 odd years as a Labour person, but... imagine Corbyn was PM at the mo?

    The usual suspects on here would probably be saying cancelling flights was a big state affront to liberty, but that aside, I wouldn't feel that confident he wasn't half enjoying IS causing mayhem

    The Labour membership has been flooded with "Fishers", "Corbyns", "Milnes" etc.

    Three quid Trots.

    The ordinary Labour vote will be off long before Corbyn and Co are.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Conor Pope
    Labour MPs have been telling me they have intended to carry on raising issue of Fisher's role with Iain McNicol at weekly PLP meetings.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,220
    On topic, there had been talk of Osborne moving to the Foreign Office to give him the opportunity to be statesman like. Perhaps he'd have been better off moving - if that option was available. Hammond has come across very well this week and I think he'd have a good chance of beating Osborne if he can make it on to the ballot.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    @Charles Vanilla

    Ta - replied
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    25 mins later
    We have one Conservative voting poster (felix) who states they would probably vote Osborne. Only probably. Where have all the Osbophiles gone? Did they ever exist? Be brave, out yourselves, Mr Brind thinks we have lots on here.

    Oh, I can easily see myself voting for Osborne, and he's still favourite. But many a slip twixt and all that.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,930
    Doddy.

    "Roger That fella is ugly... he will never make it.."

    Shallow even by your standards
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Roger said:

    Doddy.

    "Roger That fella is ugly... he will never make it.."

    Shallow even by your standards

    Isn't he a relation of yours?
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    This is the normal partisan piece from Don. The inability to talk about politics in an objective way without being able to resist putting in digs is demontrative of the Labour bubble, and how they end up with someone like Corbyn in charge.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    JohnO said:

    Roger said:

    Doddy.

    "Roger That fella is ugly... he will never make it.."

    Shallow even by your standards

    Isn't he a relation of yours?
    Does Roger look like a potato too?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,189

    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    It will be nearly 15 years since the last Tory election. It will be a very dangerous time for the party. Will they swing to an extreme
    No.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,204

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html

    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.



    Hmmm. IAAAFAIIPTGFAE, but is a CVR's recording accurate enough to tell (say) an explosive device from a catastrophic explosive decompression (although the former may well lead to the latter).
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    felix said:

    25 mins later
    We have one Conservative voting poster (felix) who states they would probably vote Osborne. Only probably. Where have all the Osbophiles gone? Did they ever exist? Be brave, out yourselves, Mr Brind thinks we have lots on here.

    I think you,Brind et al miss the point. Osborne has had a bad press before. Yet he's got a lot more power now than you or the likes of Brind could dream of. Politics is a long game.
    I do not have a vote in the election, whenever it happens. But I could see myself voting for him. I scratch my head to see who else is knocking on the door. Oh of course there are a number of viable candidates, but who would be the best option? And at the moment there is no one who is any more realistic than another. Lord Chancellor. Home Secretary. Foreign Secretary. Chancellor of Exchequer. Defence Secretary. Those posts will all contain likely candidates. But who will be filling those posts in October 2019?
    I appreciate this is a betting site, so otherwise I would be suggesting all of this is the last thing labour apologist should be worrying about.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've seen a report that a toddler passenger was found dead 20 miles from the main debris site, I've no expertise here so offer no opinion

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html

    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.

    Hmmm. IAAAFAIIPTGFAE, but is a CVR's recording accurate enough to tell (say) an explosive device from a catastrophic explosive decompression (although the former may well lead to the latter).

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited November 2015
    watford30 said:

    JohnO said:

    Roger said:

    Doddy.

    "Roger That fella is ugly... he will never make it.."

    Shallow even by your standards

    Isn't he a relation of yours?
    Does Roger look like a potato too?
    Not at all. Last time we met (admittedly few years back) he cut a most distinguished figure (could do with a haircut though) and possessed impeccable manners.
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    Speedy said:

    Roger said:

    The next leader of the Labour Party. Impressive and Scottish.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c5arswlOSI

    This is a joke right?
    Is he a MP for am English seat? How else would he become leader?
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    25 mins later
    We have one Conservative voting poster (felix) who states they would probably vote Osborne. Only probably. Where have all the Osbophiles gone? Did they ever exist? Be brave, out yourselves, Mr Brind thinks we have lots on here.

    Osborne is someone I may well vote for. We will see what other options occur as well. I think Hammond is a contender..
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    I've seen a report that a toddler passenger was found dead 20 miles from the main debris site, I've no expertise here so offer no opinion

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html

    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.

    Hmmm. IAAAFAIIPTGFAE, but is a CVR's recording accurate enough to tell (say) an explosive device from a catastrophic explosive decompression (although the former may well lead to the latter).


    It wasn't 20 miles. There was a misreporting of the search area as a distance rather than an overall area.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    What a pity he doesn't extend those *impeccable manners* to PB.
    JohnO said:

    watford30 said:

    JohnO said:

    Roger said:

    Doddy.

    "Roger That fella is ugly... he will never make it.."

    Shallow even by your standards

    Isn't he a relation of yours?
    Does Roger look like a potato too?
    Not at all. Last time we met (admittedly few years back) he cut a most distinguished figure (could do with a haircut though) and possessed impeccable manners.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Sean_F said:

    More sour grapes in this article. The Conservatives didn't win by getting money from hedge funds. They won because voters rated them far more highly than Labour in terms of leadership and economic competence. And, judging by the polling, they still do.

    As to the premise of the article, it makes sense to phase cuts in tax credits in more slowly than originally planned. It certainly doesn't make sense to any government to operate on the basis that it will never make a change to benefits if it leaves anyone worse off. Clearly, the welfare bill has to be reduced if this country is to eliminate the budget deficit.

    Disagree. The vast amount of cash that the Tories enabled them effective campaigns in the marginals even though their volunteer base is nothing like the size that it was.

    And why the welfare bills where it impacts on the young but not on the oldies although I should add that I benefit from that? That's Osborne buying votes.
    I think that's right about cash making up for local volunteers, though to be fair the flying squads bus was good too.

    The weekly whinges about Don Brind's articles are boring - people don't like them, they don't have to read them. Or, better, they can write interesting pieces putting alternative views.
    If someone wants to use the platform they are provided on the site to engage in partisan attacks, they shouldn't complain when they receive criticism back the other way. I find the most whinging bit in the whole thread the original article.
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    Pleasantly surprised the dog's not barking her head off given some near neighbours have been launching umpteen fireworks about 20 yards away to entertain their offspring...
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Speedy said:

    Roger said:

    The next leader of the Labour Party. Impressive and Scottish.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c5arswlOSI

    This is a joke right?
    Is he a MP for am English seat? How else would he become leader?
    No, Ian Murray (Edinburg South) and Labour's sole Scottish MP.
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    Regarding Mr Brind's "Osbophiles" comment, of interest which Conservative voters on here want Osborne as the next Leader of the party? I am struggling to think of many.

    It will be nearly 15 years since the last Tory election. It will be a very dangerous time for the party. Will they swing to an extreme
    No.
    I would be surprised if they did as well. But the electorate is pretty fresh at this. 15 years is a long time in politics...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html

    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.

    Hmmm. IAAAFAIIPTGFAE, but is a CVR's recording accurate enough to tell (say) an explosive device from a catastrophic explosive decompression (although the former may well lead to the latter).
    Over at the PPRuNe forum, the thinking is that modern high explosives emit a very specific sound that is obvious on a CVR recording, when compared to say a fuel explosion. I'm not an acoustic or explosives engineer but plenty of both are available to the investigation and I'm confident they'll work it out soon enough.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This may seem a daft suggestion re rain - but have you considered a dog hat? Having a raincoat isn't bad either even if she has a good fur coat. Getting your face wet doesn't appeal to some dogs as much as we don't like it.

    Making her a happy walkies seems worth trying a few options rather than dragging her about during inclement weather.

    Pleasantly surprised the dog's not barking her head off given some near neighbours have been launching umpteen fireworks about 20 yards away to entertain their offspring...

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    Miss Plato, apart from her strop, she's been fine today. Yet more fireworks, but she's still quiet, which is good.

    I just wish she'd stop her fixation with only doing anything on a single square yard in a field... it's a bit odd. Can't remember any other dog failing to grasp the fact any old long grass is fine.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It could be some crappy homemade ShoeBomber thing instead though.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html

    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.

    Hmmm. IAAAFAIIPTGFAE, but is a CVR's recording accurate enough to tell (say) an explosive device from a catastrophic explosive decompression (although the former may well lead to the latter).

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    I think a fight between Osborne and Corbyn would have only one winner. However, I don't think the Tories are going to pick Osborne as leader, should I still be a member at the time of the leadership election I will vote for whoever Osborne is facing off against as long as they aren't a raving Europhile like him.

    He may be good at strategy but he has proven time and again he has no sense of tactical awareness, at all. Crosby absolutely took Labour to cleaners in 2015 because he knew when and how to deploy the best strategies, Osborne was unable to do it in 2010 which undoubtedly cost the Tories a majority.
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    Hmm. If these fireworks persist, I may need to dispatch an enormo-haddock.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited November 2015

    I've seen a report that a toddler passenger was found dead 20 miles from the main debris site, I've no expertise here so offer no opinion

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html

    Investigator: black boxes "distinctly show sound of explosion"

    French television channel France 2 is reporting that the black boxes "distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight", according to an investigator who had access to them.

    They said: "the explosion would not be secondary from engine failure".
    Sandpit said:

    Reports now coming in that the crashed plane suffered an explosion on board, according to the cockpit voice recorder which has been listened to (French sources). More evidence mounting for the terrorism theory, unfortunately.

    Hmmm. IAAAFAIIPTGFAE, but is a CVR's recording accurate enough to tell (say) an explosive device from a catastrophic explosive decompression (although the former may well lead to the latter).

    That was a translation of an unofficial report. It is true that a baby's body was found some way from the rest of the wreckage but the distance is not confirmed. One suggestion is a confusion between a search area of 20 square miles and the body being at the edge of that zone being 20 miles away (a 20 sq mi zone would likely be c. 7x3 miles).

    I've never before seen an aviation accident (and I've researched loads over the years, as you may have guessed!) where there's been such a release of information and disinformation all second and third hand in the days afterwards. The nations involved and the possible terrorism and geopolitical angles certainly don't help in this regard.
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    I suppose if your main business is already based in the UK you may decide to take a chance that they won't make you do anything too destructive, but they're also trying to make it apply to overseas companies that have an address in the UK, so international companies with offices in the UK are going to need to close them.

    I think you can be 100% certain that the US and all other Western countries will implement very similar rules, as they always have in the past for over half a century.
    Absolutely not, there's nothing this extreme on the horizon anywhere, and in much of the developed world it would be unconstitutional.
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    Good evening, everyone.

    I hope the weather improves soon. Tired of walking the beast in the rain [especially when she has a hissyfit...].

    On women and the economy, isn't that perhaps due to the risk-aversion and more cautious approach women have in general, compared to men?

    I would have thought that walking Haddock in the rain was / is perfect for them and maybe you? I am charmed that you still take them on productive strolls!
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    Hmm. If these fireworks persist, I may need to dispatch an enormo-haddock.

    http://www.amazon.com/Mutt-Muffs-DDR337-Hearing-Protection/dp/B002CZQ1TA
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    Mr. StClare, never mind the dog, it's pissing *me* off.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    On the betting front,I make it 4-1 the field on the next Tory leadership so,as I have posted before,is Osborne is lay,lay,lay at 2-1 up to this price.My 1st ever political bet was on John Major at 10-1 and as TSE has posted Tory leadership elections are very unpredictable anyway.What price was Mrs Thatcher a few years before she was elected?
    I still think the best politician the Tories have is Theresa May and 8-1 is too big.She too though may come a cropper if the IPBill goes tits-up.Her speech on immigration was distasteful but will appeal to the Owen Paterson brigade.
    The race for Tory leader is wide open.
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    Absolutely not, there's nothing this extreme on the horizon anywhere, and in much of the developed world it would be unconstitutional.

    You mean that you are unaware of 'anything this extreme'.

    However, since the 'Five Eyes' countries invariably act extremely closely together, it is all but inconceivable that the UK would go out on a limb. What would be the point, anyway?

    It is possible that countries outside the 'Five Eyes' group might do something different, although the trend in recent years is in the opposite direction.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited November 2015

    I suppose if your main business is already based in the UK you may decide to take a chance that they won't make you do anything too destructive, but they're also trying to make it apply to overseas companies that have an address in the UK, so international companies with offices in the UK are going to need to close them.

    I think you can be 100% certain that the US and all other Western countries will implement very similar rules, as they always have in the past for over half a century.
    Absolutely not, there's nothing this extreme on the horizon anywhere, and in much of the developed world it would be unconstitutional.
    This really does sound like some muppet just wrote down the police wish list and published it as the Bill, I really hope it gets ripped to shreds in Committee stage. Also, Bills like this are why we have a House of Lords, I'd expect them to send it straight back to the green benches to come up with something close to being in line with how a free country operates.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd take catfish for a walk. Especially an enormo one like this. Jeremy Wade is such a guy

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/5b/8e/1a/5b8e1a805e468af62bd18bee1a971918.jpg

    Good evening, everyone.

    I hope the weather improves soon. Tired of walking the beast in the rain [especially when she has a hissyfit...].

    On women and the economy, isn't that perhaps due to the risk-aversion and more cautious approach women have in general, compared to men?

    I would have thought that walking Haddock in the rain was / is perfect for them and maybe you? I am charmed that you still take them on productive strolls!
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited November 2015
    Roger you reallyb are a joke..You would never cast this fella as PM even in a spoof commercial..Maybe if we give Corbyn Clint Eastwoods poncho and a cheroot,with that slouchy hat he might be in with a chance..until he opens his mouth and fires blanks...your fella is just plain ugly...only a mother could love it..and I have seen him in operation many times in the HOC..a total charisma bypass that matches his appearance..keep dreaming lad..
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,220
    Does anyone else think that John Casson looks a bit young to be an ambassador - especially to a country like Egypt?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/people/john-casson

    I guess he's fluent in Arabic so there's probably quite a limited pool for the PM to choose from, but he wouldn't fill me with confidence if I was stuck at the airport.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    A Spaghetti Hoops movie star

    Roger you reallyb are a joke..You would never cast this fella as PM in even a spoof commercial..Maybe if we give Corbyn,Clint Eastwoods poncho and a cheroot,with that slouchy hat he might be in with a chance..until he opens hos mouth and fires blanks...your fella is just plain ugly...only a mother could love it..

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    The SNP didn't actually lose apparently

    #context #reasons

    Scott_P said:

    @UK__News: The Scottish Conservatives have beaten the SNP to first place in a by-election in Alex Salmond's constituency. https://t.co/DSrqMsmTQC

    It's a great result for the SNP...

    They put up 1 SNP candidate, 1 SNP candidate got elected.

    To be precise in 2012 the SNP put up 2 candidates and one was elected. They would have expected to pick up this seat but now there are 2 Tories, 1 SNP and 1 Independent councillors.

    This may not be the sign of the end of the SNP surge but along with the Lib Dem success in Loch Ness there are signs that the SNP rural vote is not as strong as they may wish. The SNP have aggressively centralised Government in Scotland. This is beginning to upset the Highlands and Borders especially. I can still see the SNP not winning a majority next year but I can also see the protest vote rising and there may be some surprise losses.





    SNP support has a much lower cap in the north as both Lib Dem all over and Conservative in the North East are legitimate contenders.

    According to the polls ( and the Scottish Westminster polls were awffy good ) the SNP has more support for Holyrood for 2016 than they did at 2011. The only thing stopping a SNP majoirty is a surprise collapse due to events. If things continue as they are than SNP Maj is nailed on.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    As for my bet on next leader, Hammond is the best value. Available at 22 on BF.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,930
    edited November 2015
    Hallo JohnO.

    "Isn't he a relation of yours?"

    A relation of a relation but I'm being objective. A perfect Labour leader for all kinds of reasons. Humble background articulate bright and Scottish which at this time could also be helpful
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    We have had enough humble Scots..bloody useless...all of them
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    MaxPB said:

    I think a fight between Osborne and Corbyn would have only one winner.

    To which the variations on "whoever wins, we lose" will be endless.
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    Roger said:

    Hallo JohnO.

    "Isn't he a relation of yours?"

    A relation of a relation but I'm being objective. A perfect Labour leader for all kinds of reasons. Humble background articulate bright and Scottish which at this time could also be helpful

    Why should a humble background be important?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823

    This may seem a daft suggestion re rain - but have you considered a dog hat? Having a raincoat isn't bad either even if she has a good fur coat. Getting your face wet doesn't appeal to some dogs as much as we don't like it.

    Making her a happy walkies seems worth trying a few options rather than dragging her about during inclement weather.

    Pleasantly surprised the dog's not barking her head off given some near neighbours have been launching umpteen fireworks about 20 yards away to entertain their offspring...

    Dog hat :)

    There's some stuff on PB, there really is!

    You're barking mad, the pair of you. (You could see that coming a mile off)


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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    MaxPB said:

    I think a fight between Osborne and Corbyn would have only one winner.

    To which the variations on "whoever wins, we lose" will be endless.
    Indeed. I don't understand the polls which show Osborne in the lead with Tory members. I have not sense a lot of enthusiasm for him among the people I have met at Tory events.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    swaggering?
    Stopped reading right there. Thank you and good night Mr Brind.

    Out of idle curiosity and for the benefit of those of us who have given up reading Brind articles altogether - how far into the article is that word?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,858
    edited November 2015
    Omnium said:

    This may seem a daft suggestion re rain - but have you considered a dog hat? Having a raincoat isn't bad either even if she has a good fur coat. Getting your face wet doesn't appeal to some dogs as much as we don't like it.

    Making her a happy walkies seems worth trying a few options rather than dragging her about during inclement weather.

    Pleasantly surprised the dog's not barking her head off given some near neighbours have been launching umpteen fireworks about 20 yards away to entertain their offspring...

    Dog hat :)

    There's some stuff on PB, there really is!

    You're barking mad, the pair of you. (You could see that coming a mile off)


    Here's the Tory one.

    image

    TGI Friday...
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    If they'd been caught out as serial backers of other Party candidates - but otherwise it's pathetically transparent Whataboutery.

    Frankly, I don't give a toss about Mr Fisher - the longer nitwits like him are in positions of power in Labour the better.

    dr_spyn said:

    Loyalty or whataboutry breaking out in Labour Party.

    Ken Livingstone ‏@ken4london 45s45 seconds ago
    I hope Labour's General Secretary will now move swiftly over Simon Danczuck and Frank Field. Not one rule for staff and another for MPs
    5 retweets 3 likes
    Reply Retweet 5
    Like 3
    More

    Has Frank Field urged voters to vote for another party? If so, I have missed it.
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