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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson calls for an Easter resurrection of Pontius P

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Plato said:

    I've just reached my allocated 20 articles in the DT and now asked to register/sign up for subs.

    @Plato
    It is GBP20 a year if you pay up front and want to read it on the web or a smartphone, but a lot more expensive if you want to access it through a tablet as well.

    My quandary would be contributing in any shape or form towards Dan Hodges' wages, but I like to know what "the other side" is thinking and I enjoy reading their finance section, especially AEP.

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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Having said that, I was prescribed Tramadol once. I took one and slept for fourteen hours. Left them alone after that.
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    hughphughp Posts: 11
    Who was the first emperor to be succeeded by his brother ? I have been thinking that the answer to this might involve some knowledge of the obscurer members of the House of Constantine, but it has suddenly come to me that the answer is Titus.

    One thing that we do now know is that in any potential British empire of the future Ed M is not likely to be succeeded by David M !

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Old Labour

    Am I right in thinking you visit Boston a bit? I'm heading there tomorrow and have done zero research on what to see or do there. Have you any tips for what a nerd shouldnt miss? Is there a Tip O'Neil library? ;)
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    Neil,

    I've been to Boston three times in the last three years to visit (my son was married in Harvard Square last year).

    I recommend the trolley trip round the city, and the boat trip round the harbour was interesting with an amusing commentary by someone I christened Gerry Adams for his somewhat one-sided view of the British. He took it well.

    Best of all was the trip to Lexington and Concord to see how the American revolution started. You'll need a car for that but well worth it (and not at all biased).

    Harpoon beer is OK but there are lots of micro-breweries to choose from (you have to get your priorities right).
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Tramadol is an absolutely useless drug as a pain killer, not any better than paracetamol at 1g four times a day. See here http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/booth/painpag/Acutrev/Analgesics/Leagtab.html

    As for the list of side effects that's true to form for most drugs these days. EU law requires adverse effects with a likelihood of more than 1 in 10,000 to be listed and most drugs will have a list as long as your arm.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    o/t latest poll in Ireland is a shocker for Labour, talk of replacing Gilmore (I doubt they will but who knows) will surely grow but I cant see value in the Paddy Power market on his replacement (Joan Burton at 11/8 seems like the only viable, if flawed, candidate).

    Anyway, poll shows:

    FG - 27%
    FF - 23%
    SF - 15%
    Lab - 7%
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @CD13

    Many thanks. Is there anything you cant get good advice about on pbc?
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Hurst Llama I'd be up for another game of Diplomacy. Can't say that I'd be any better but at least I now
    that Andy C can be trusted as far as he can be thrown!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Great link to the wargames article, Hurst - I've plasyed that too. And yes, sign me up for Diplomacy. I am as honest as the day is long (cor it's a bit dark out there).

    This is the enjoyable classic on the subject in its entirety - anyone who likes Diplomacy should read it:

    http://www.diplomacy-archive.com/god.htm

    The author was a real character - Nigel Farage plus scintillating prose style. He was robustly his own man, smoked like a chimney and eventually died of cancer. His sardonic comment on that: "Maybe the health fascists were right after all." Nice guy, much missed.

    Tramodol - I have a relative who suffers serious, ongoing, near-hospitalising pain. Tramodol has been a crucial element in enabling her to live an independent life. Basically all drugs can do you harm as per the well-we-did-mention-it lists but some are worth it if you don't happen to trigger the side-effects.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    Neil,

    As you're Irish, you'll be very popular anyway.

    I don't remember the Tip O'Neil library but the trolley trip goes past all the important buildings anyway. Fenway Park is fine if you fancy a ball game and the top floor of the Prudential Building gives you a panoramic view of the city - it's near the Cheers bar by Boston common.

    They've four universities but Harvard is probably the most interesting.

    Don't ask for chips. My brother did and got about 3cwt of crisps.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Nick P the debate about tramadol is the same as that about co-proxamol, or rofecoxib. There are people who swore blind about co-proxamol and how there life has been ruined since its licence was withdrawn. If you're dealing with public health then you have to act for the greater good if your perceive the risks outweigh the benefits and that will be the case until we have personalised drug treatment which will work for our particular genetic make-up without the adverse effects. Hopefully, not to long into the future and already available for some drugs.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Chris_A said:

    Nick P the debate about tramadol is the same as that about co-proxamol, or rofecoxib. There are people who swore blind about co-proxamol and how there life has been ruined since its licence was withdrawn. If you're dealing with public health then you have to act for the greater good if your perceive the risks outweigh the benefits and that will be the case until we have personalised drug treatment which will work for our particular genetic make-up without the adverse effects. Hopefully, not to long into the future and already available for some drugs.

    Not aware of the debate especially - is there a proposal to withdraw the licence in the UK? It's obviously strictly controlled.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. P, that's quite right.

    From the little I remember, I think Titus was a good, perhaps very good, emperor. His brother was not, though.

    Under which emperor did the empire reach its greatest geographical limit?
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Nick P, not tramadol at the moment - I meant the ongoing debate which is valid for all drugs, that is do the benefits of keeping it on the market outweigh the risks. The current pain killer under the spotlight at the moment is diclofenac and there have been calls for that to be severely restricted because of its cardiac adverse effects.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Chris_A said:

    Nick P, not tramadol at the moment - I meant the ongoing debate which is valid for all drugs, that is do the benefits of keeping it on the market outweigh the risks. The current pain killer under the spotlight at the moment is diclofenac and there have been calls for that to be severely restricted because of its cardiac adverse effects.

    Chris A - have you any opinion on Malorin/one? The gastro specialist I was seeing for treatment a while back said he 'wouldn't prescribe it to a dog.'

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Carola

    Andrea was saying that Labour's candidate in Pavilion last time will contest that seat and you'd have to make her favourite for selection and to win the seat as well.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Neil said:

    @Old Labour

    Am I right in thinking you visit Boston a bit? I'm heading there tomorrow and have done zero research on what to see or do there. Have you any tips for what a nerd shouldnt miss? Is there a Tip O'Neil library? ;)

    @Neil
    Here is a link to various Tip O'Neil exhbits at the library of Boston College.

    http://www.bc.edu/content/bc/libraries/about/exhibits-new.html

    Last year, the city of Cambridge (opposite Boston) organised events to commemorate the centenary of his birth.

    From Wikipedia
    The Thomas P. O'Neill Jr. Tunnel, built through downtown Boston as part of the Big Dig to carry Interstate 93 under Boston, was named after him. Other structures named after him include a House Office Building (now demolished), the Thomas P. O'Neill Jr. Federal Building in Boston, a federal office building in Washington, D.C.,[15] a golf course in Cambridge, and the main library at his alma mater, Boston College.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Carola never heard of it. I'll try and look it up. Sean T quite right but the problem in our rudimentary current understanding is that you can't be sure whether the drug is going to give someone great relief from their pain or a fatal adverse reaction without doing the experiment. Genetics is the key and until we get there it's advisable to be cautious.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Neil said:

    @Carola

    Andrea was saying that Labour's candidate in Pavilion last time will contest that seat and you'd have to make her favourite for selection and to win the seat as well.

    Shame in a way. Would have been fun... despite the risk of spending the following 5 years facepalming.

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited March 2013
    @Neil
    My favourite place in Boston is the mapparium. There is nothing else like it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mapparium
    http://www.marybakereddylibrary.org/exhibits/mapparium
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Old Labour

    Many thanks, will definitely seek that out (I wish I'd gotten around to reading a biography of him beforehand!).
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @Neil
    How long are you staying here? I will be in California from 2nd to 7th April, then back to Boston.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Chris_A said:

    Carola never heard of it. I'll try and look it up. Sean T quite right but the problem in our rudimentary current understanding is that you can't be sure whether the drug is going to give someone great relief from their pain or a fatal adverse reaction without doing the experiment. Genetics is the key and until we get there it's advisable to be cautious.

    Actually it's Malarine - antimalarial. Took it when I went up the Amazon and ill from the day I took it. After to/fro-ing to my GP for two and a half years (and getting fobbed off, sadly) and losing a heap of weight I got diagnosed as a coeliac. I said to the specialist that I linked it to taking Malarine, expecting him to diss the idea, but he said 'nothing would surprise me when it comes to Malarine.'

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Old Labour

    Wow, that looks awesome and I doubt I would have heard of it otherwise. We're only staying for 3 days, getting a train to New York on Wednesday morning.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carola said:

    @Charles

    Nearly every prescription med I've taken over the last few years has had a 'warnings' list looking something like that. Maybe they just cover themselves for everything, so that they can't be blamed for anything.

    Quiet on here.

    Take my word for it - if you read the detail this one is nasty.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    @Old Labour

    Am I right in thinking you visit Boston a bit? I'm heading there tomorrow and have done zero research on what to see or do there. Have you any tips for what a nerd shouldnt miss? Is there a Tip O'Neil library? ;)

    If it is at all your sort of thing, the Isabella Stewart Gardner collection is well worth a visit.

    Even if the muppets are famous for the most farcical art theft in history

    http://www.gardnermuseum.org/
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Dr. Sox,

    I have put your name down for the next PB Diplomacy game. It should be fun, the last series was. Just a word of advice, if Andy Cooke joins in do not trust the b'stard! He lies like a hairy egg. I mean you expect Doc Palmer to be a SoB at the diplomacy table, him being a former world champ at the game and a politician to boot, but for plausible lies, treachery and out right-double dealing Mr. Cooke has him beat by a country mile.

    On the subject of giant games, I remember spending a week's leave playing SPI's Wellington's Victory - it took the two of us a whole day just to set up. I also played War in the East with all options; that took even longer and I might very well have won (as the Germans) had not the bloody cat got into the gaming room when we went to the pub. Hexes, cardboard and dice are great, but a computer is moggie proof.

    Anyway, just remember if you met Andy Cooke at the Diplomacy table whatever he says he is lieing.

    In Diplomacy, no-one should be trusted indefinitly. It is the timing of the betrayal that is critical.

    I never played the Monster games, my room and budget never extended that far. Mostly I had to make do with the portfolio games. Two days to set up! What a pleasure- at least for those of us who like maps and numbers.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Teaching unions vote Michael Gove Loveliest Man Of The Year [not really, they're threatening civil disobedience]:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/mar/30/teachers-strike-action-curriculum-reforms
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Neil said:

    @Old Labour

    Wow, that looks awesome and I doubt I would have heard of it otherwise. We're only staying for 3 days, getting a train to New York on Wednesday morning.

    @Neil
    I am sure you will have a great time. Boston and Cambridge, where Harvard is, are both very walkable.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris_A said:

    Nick P, not tramadol at the moment - I meant the ongoing debate which is valid for all drugs, that is do the benefits of keeping it on the market outweigh the risks. The current pain killer under the spotlight at the moment is diclofenac and there have been calls for that to be severely restricted because of its cardiac adverse effects.

    There are better drugs out there - MS Contin for one - which can be used for similar purposes. Tramadol is a fairly old drug, and hence cheap, which is why governments like it despite the side effects. It's a shame that the Sacklers have to keep their prices so high, but at least the money gets recycled into worthwhile causes.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Carola said:

    Chris_A said:

    Nick P, not tramadol at the moment - I meant the ongoing debate which is valid for all drugs, that is do the benefits of keeping it on the market outweigh the risks. The current pain killer under the spotlight at the moment is diclofenac and there have been calls for that to be severely restricted because of its cardiac adverse effects.

    Chris A - have you any opinion on Malorin/one? The gastro specialist I was seeing for treatment a while back said he 'wouldn't prescribe it to a dog.'

    I always take Malarone when in a malarial zone, though also sleep under a net and spray the room with Doom or similar every evening. Its Lariam that I wont take, have seen some very severe psychological reactions to it, including psychosis and I know of one suicide in which it was implicated.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Chris_A said:

    Nick P, not tramadol at the moment - I meant the ongoing debate which is valid for all drugs, that is do the benefits of keeping it on the market outweigh the risks. The current pain killer under the spotlight at the moment is diclofenac and there have been calls for that to be severely restricted because of its cardiac adverse effects.

    Chris A - have you any opinion on Malorin/one? The gastro specialist I was seeing for treatment a while back said he 'wouldn't prescribe it to a dog.'

    I always take Malarone when in a malarial zone, though also sleep under a net and spray the room with Doom or similar every evening. Its Lariam that I wont take, have seen some very severe psychological reactions to it, including psychosis and I know of one suicide in which it was implicated.
    Thanks - I'll put that one on my 'avoid' list as well.

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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Teaching unions vote Michael Gove Loveliest Man Of The Year [not really, they're threatening civil disobedience]:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/mar/30/teachers-strike-action-curriculum-reforms

    They must have seen the recent yougov/parents poll.

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good evening. The news from Cyprus is not good. It looks like te haircut for those with €100K and more will be in the region of 60%:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21982652

    David Herdsons Easter Resurrection may turn out to be in Cyprus.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345
    MikeK said:

    Good evening. The news from Cyprus is not good. It looks like te haircut for those with €100K and more will be in the region of 60%:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21982652

    David Herdsons Easter Resurrection may turn out to be in Cyprus.

    The EU hates savers?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345
    Carola said:

    Teaching unions vote Michael Gove Loveliest Man Of The Year [not really, they're threatening civil disobedience]:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/mar/30/teachers-strike-action-curriculum-reforms

    They must have seen the recent yougov/parents poll.

    Teachers go NUTs?

    :)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2013
    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Chris_A said:

    Nick P, not tramadol at the moment - I meant the ongoing debate which is valid for all drugs, that is do the benefits of keeping it on the market outweigh the risks. The current pain killer under the spotlight at the moment is diclofenac and there have been calls for that to be severely restricted because of its cardiac adverse effects.

    Chris A - have you any opinion on Malorin/one? The gastro specialist I was seeing for treatment a while back said he 'wouldn't prescribe it to a dog.'

    I always take Malarone when in a malarial zone, though also sleep under a net and spray the room with Doom or similar every evening. Its Lariam that I wont take, have seen some very severe psychological reactions to it, including psychosis and I know of one suicide in which it was implicated.
    Thanks - I'll put that one on my 'avoid' list as well.

    All drugs have their side effects and interactions, which can be very idiosyncratic and need to be tailored to the risks and benefits to the individual. What suits me may be quite inappropriate for another. I have seen a good friend get major brain damage from malaria, so the risks cannot be ignored.

    The other thing to bear in mind is that more longstanding drugs tend to have longer lists of side effects as they have been around longer. Newer drugs may be no safer, just less experience of use.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    There have been 9 polls since the budget. UKIP average = 13%.

    And 30 polls since the Eastleigh by-election with a UKIP average of 12.5%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    The EU hates savers?

    Savers hate bankrupt banks.

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    samsam Posts: 727

    Accidentally clicked on a link that led me to this when I tried to post earlier....

    Posted in Lib Dems | No Comments

    ICM finds support for UKIP down to ZERO percent
    Wednesday, October 31st, 2007


    What are the implications of the collapse of the anti-EU party?
    On June 10th 2004 in the last European elections, UKIP received 2.7 million votes and gained twelve seats in the European Parliament. Their national vote share of just under 17% put them in third place ahead of the Lib Dems and all the talk was of the party doing terrible damage to Michael Howard Conservatives in the ensuing general election.

    When that vote came, just eleven months later, the party received a paltry 618,000 votes which amounted to less than 2.4% of the national vote. It did not win any Westminster seats although it’s argued that the performances of their candidates in key marginals cost the Tories a clutch of seats.

    Earlier in 2007 the party was making the headlines again when two former Conservative Lords defected. Lords Pearson and Willoughby de Broke said they felt Cameron’s Conservative Party was not producing policy to support their beliefs.

    Today, Julian Glover in the Guardian reports that in the latest poll published this morning UKIP did not register at all. Not a single respondent said the party would be their choice.

    UKIP, like other smaller parties, is suffering from the increasing polarisation of big party politics. The question is whether this will have an impact on the number of seats changing hands and if so how should punters factor this in? For the UKIP element does not figure in the standard seat predictors except in so far as a part of the decline in support might mean switching to other parties.

    We saw in the ICM marginals poll on the weekend that Gord called off the election that the Tories were doing well in the key seats. In that survey five people said they would vote UKIP.

    All this is why in my commons seat spread betting I’m now assuming that the Tories will do a little better than the Baxter and Wells seat predictors suggest. When you have £100 a seat positions the odd five gains or losses either way can make a big difference.

    Meanwhile on the Betfair general election “most seats” market the Tories have moved into the favourite slot once again.

    Mike Smithson
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    Incredible: Cypriots with more than £84,500 in their bank accounts will probably lose 60% of their savings. So £84,600 will become £33,840.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Teaching unions vote Michael Gove Loveliest Man Of The Year [not really, they're threatening civil disobedience]:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/mar/30/teachers-strike-action-curriculum-reforms

    I see that one NUT speaker is claiming: "“Good teachers are literally dropping like flies because of Ofsted. We owe it to all of our teachers who are literally being torn to bits by Mr Gove and Sir Michael Wilshaw and their band of crocodiles and lions."

    Priceless. Let's hope this guy isn't an English teacher.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/9962568/Teachers-call-for-boycott-of-school-Ofsted-inspections.html
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Teaching unions vote Michael Gove Loveliest Man Of The Year [not really, they're threatening civil disobedience]:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/mar/30/teachers-strike-action-curriculum-reforms

    They must have seen the recent yougov/parents poll.

    Teachers go NUTs?

    :)
    You'd have to be nuts to go into teaching at the moment. Mind you, if you look at the DfE/Teach First etc posters enticing the unwary in, you'd think you'd never have to go into a classroom. They're all of suited types in meetings, plush offices or showing powerpoint presentations to similarly-suited colleagues. Not a kid in sight. Teaching, if anything, is now merely a stepping stone to management. I read a stat somewhere recently that manager numbers have gone up by 35% on average in schools. It's going the way of the NHS.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @AndyJS

    Yes, for all its technical flaws at least the Cypriot President's plan didnt clobber anyone too badly.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Miss Jones, that's not a great advert for education, is it?

    My English teachers were generally uninspiring. I learnt more about the mechanics of language in French and German, and more about getting messages across in Religious Studies.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Incredible: Cypriots with more than £84,500 in their bank accounts will probably lose 60% of their savings. So £84,600 will become £33,840.

    Don't the losses only apply to the amount over €100 000?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345

    AndyJS said:

    Incredible: Cypriots with more than £84,500 in their bank accounts will probably lose 60% of their savings. So £84,600 will become £33,840.

    Don't the losses only apply to the amount over €100 000?
    100K in Euros = 85K in pounds
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    edited March 2013

    AndyJS said:

    Incredible: Cypriots with more than £84,500 in their bank accounts will probably lose 60% of their savings. So £84,600 will become £33,840.

    Don't the losses only apply to the amount over €100 000?
    100K in Euros = 85K in pounds
    No, I think he means that £84,600 will become £84,540.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Yes, so some one on €100 000, loses nothing; someone on €110 000 loses €6 000, not €66 000.

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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Farage recent conf speech in full on BBC Parl now. Cameron up next.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Anyone think 200/1 for a libDem at South Shields is good value. at WH? I know it is a "safe" Labour seat, but resignation by elections do produce surprises, and LibDems have a good by election team.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Carola - managers in the NHS have decreased significantly.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Thanks to Charles, Fox and ChrisA for interesting comments on medications.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345
    New Thread
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "In Diplomacy, no-one should be trusted indefinitly. It is the timing of the betrayal that is critical."

    Absolutely, Doc. Just be aware if that bugger Cooke is in the game he will be planning how he is going to betray you from the outset. His very first message, no matter how innocuous it seems, is the kiss of Judas. Nice chap as he is in real life (and I have met him, so I know), in the game you should spurn Cooke as you would a rabid dog.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    perdix said:

    Carola - managers in the NHS have decreased significantly.

    I don't think we've got to the point of learning that lesson yet. We're following in the wake.
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    New thread
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    Thanks for this thread- very seasonal.

    The key to the way the Christians write the narrative up is the fact that Pilate has been recalled to Rome for being unable to keep the peace in his province, and there has then been a bloody war, which has been key to the political success of Vespasian and his sons Titus and Domitian, one of whom was probably wearing the purple at the time each of the gospels were written.

    The 68-72 war and destruction of the temple destroyed the position of the chief priests, so it's easy to blame them. It's also easy to suggest Pilate allowed himself to be swayed by the locals against his better judgement in an un-Roman way- publicly executing a popular preacher just before passover when there were massive international crowds in Jerusalem was a serious and obvious error in terms of peace-keeping.

    What is impressive from the Christian historiographical point of view is how much blame is also thrown on the disciples themselves (especially, but not only, Judas) in all the narratives. It in fact becomes a narrative about everyone getting everything wrong (except, in some of the narratives, some of the women), which is surprising, and makes the basic narrative (e.g. in Mark) surprisingly persuasive.

    As regards Pilate, he's the victim of the fact that his approach to the governmental task he faced has been discredited by its historical outcome, not just among Christians, but generally. However, on the face of it, his actions were indeed pretty stupid in terms of Roman political theory at the time.
This discussion has been closed.