Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chanc

124

Comments

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    And yet the SNP regime is reducing Scottish NHS funding relative to the rest of the UK.
    LIAR
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380



    Yes and no. The only reason TB didn't go for it was that he knew he couldn't carry the country. GB's infamous five tests were just a smokescreen, a handy excuse.

    You may be right, but I don't think that was it, and I was in Parliament talking to both of them at the time. I agre the five tests were just shorthand for "Gordon reserves the right to block it and is not yet persuaded", but a defining feature of Tony was that that he liked situations where public opinion is against but may be persuaded by fluent argument. He was quite sure a referendum could be won.

    Essentially he saw it as politically desirable for the reasons discussed on this thread (putting the UK in the centre of the project), and Gordon saw it as economically dubious. But certainly a referendum wasn't possible without both of them behind it, so Gordon reserved his position with the 5 tests and in the end said no.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    malcolmg said:



    UK is a dump compared to Germany , you just need to look at life there. It is no coincidence most refugees want to go there. London is a hell hole , a bad mix of haves and lots of have nots , polarised and well overrated. Only blinkered English people think it is the capital of Europe.

    Please do not confuse London with the rest of England. That London is, mostly, a dump I agree and, if forced to live in a city, I think I would prefer just about anywhere in Europe (except Paris, obviously) to it. However, London isn't England anymore than the east end of Glasgow is Scotland.
    From me experience of living there in the early 1990s, London is what you make of it. If you have a little money, an open mind and the will, you can have a great time. If you don't have money, there's still many things to do (more so than out here in the relative sticks).

    If you want London to be a dump, it will be. If you want London to be a vibrant, fun place, then it will be as well.

    I just wish I'd made more of the opportunities I'd had when I lived there. In over four years, I never went to the IWM, and only went to the science museum once. I've been to both many times since I moved away ...
    Mr. Jessop, I was born in London, grew up there and in later life did a lot of business there. I think I know London quite well. When health permits I still go up to Town, sometimes just to walk around, for the pure history of the place and I am working on a set of non-guided walks.

    However, love does not blind me to reality. London is, mostly, a dump.

  • Options

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
  • Options
    Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 11m11 minutes ago
    So - new law WILL let police see which websites you've visited w/out a warrant, just not which pages on those sites & not searches

    Hmm...
  • Options
    malcolmg said:


    Odd then that Scotland has one of the highest rates of people born in that land who choose to live somewhere else (1.15m) and 835,000 of them select the non-Scotland parts of the UK rather than outside the UK.
    SCOTLAND’S DIASPORA AND OVERSEAS-BORN POPULATION 2009.

    There are more Scots in England than any city in Scotland.
    It might sound surprising, but according to the latest census figures, there are about 750,000 people born in Scotland who live south of the border. That's more than the population of Edinburgh or Glasgow.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27655496
    There are more English in Scotland than Scot's in any city in Scotland. hat's more than the population of Edinburgh or Glasgow
    LIAR

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-could-the-referendum-be-settled-by-the-english-9714987.html
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I find all these stats for Scotland bizarre, how is it happening?

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207

    malcolmg said:



    UK is a dump compared to Germany , you just need to look at life there. It is no coincidence most refugees want to go there. London is a hell hole , a bad mix of haves and lots of have nots , polarised and well overrated. Only blinkered English people think it is the capital of Europe.

    Please do not confuse London with the rest of England. That London is, mostly, a dump I agree and, if forced to live in a city, I think I would prefer just about anywhere in Europe (except Paris, obviously) to it. However, London isn't England anymore than the east end of Glasgow is Scotland.

    I just wish I'd made more of the opportunities I'd had when I lived there. In over four years, I never went to the IWM, and only went to the science museum once. I've been to both many times since I moved away ...
    I spent lots and lots of time there in late seventies/early eighties. Had a great time and you could afford to have a good time then. Now large parts have been tarted up at the expense of the rest of the country , but it is very expensive and far too crowded. Horrible place to live unless you are loaded.
  • Options
    So there is an interesting comparison between UK influence inside the EU and Norway influence from inside the EEA.

    Both sit on the committees and take full part in the drafting and decision making that goes into the development of new legislation.

    Both can influence behind the scenes.

    The differences.

    The UK has a vote in the final decision at the Council of the EU. It has no veto. It has been defeated on every single vote where it has opposed legislation up to the end 2014.

    Norway has a veto on legislation it fundamentally disagrees with. It has used this once regarding Postal services. There are claims it has also been used regarding railway legislation but I have failed to find a confirmed example for this.

    So both have influence and play a full part in drafting the legislation that affects them (In the UK case 10 times as much legislation as in the Norway case.)

    The UK has a vote but has never managed to stop a decision it disagreed with at the final vote.

    Norway has no vote but a veto.

    Please explain how the UK has more power over Single Market decision making than Norway?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited November 2015

    Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 11m11 minutes ago
    So - new law WILL let police see which websites you've visited w/out a warrant, just not which pages on those sites & not searches

    Hmm...

    Bonkers and pointless. Only the most idiotic of criminals wont use very cheap and very simple software to avoid this. I already use it on every internet enabled device, partly for privacy and partly for security (especially when out and about and connecting to public wifi).
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2015

    I find all these stats for Scotland bizarre, how is it happening?

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    Large effects are life style choices.
    "Differences in health behaviour account for some of the health outcome inequalities between social classes. 49% of men in the most deprived areas smoke regularly compared to 26% of men in the least deprived areas. The divide is similar for women: 43% smoke in the most deprived areas, compared to 24% in the least deprived."
    http://www.poverty.org.uk/s60/index.shtml
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    Your point is , London rule and greed is such that parts of the UK have a lower life expectancy than Africa. Does not help your unionist viewpoint much and clearly articulates my point that the UK is crap and ill divided, thank you for confirming the truth even if you were both sneeringly just trying to denigrate Scotland. I know Tories don't care a jot about the people , English , Scottish , Irish or Welsh.
    What a pair of lowlifes.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    BTW, when can we expect indications of the Turkish election results?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207
    edited November 2015

    I find all these stats for Scotland bizarre, how is it happening?

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    TORIES and it is in very limited sites which were industrialised.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    And yet the SNP regime is reducing Scottish NHS funding relative to the rest of the UK.
    LIAR

    The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.

    The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.


    http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotland-scottish-government-protected-nhs/18887
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited November 2015

    So there is an interesting comparison between UK influence inside the EU and Norway influence from inside the EEA.

    Both sit on the committees and take full part in the drafting and decision making that goes into the development of new legislation.

    Both can influence behind the scenes.

    The differences.

    The UK has a vote in the final decision at the Council of the EU. It has no veto. It has been defeated on every single vote where it has opposed legislation up to the end 2014.

    Norway has a veto on legislation it fundamentally disagrees with. It has used this once regarding Postal services. There are claims it has also been used regarding railway legislation but I have failed to find a confirmed example for this.

    So both have influence and play a full part in drafting the legislation that affects them (In the UK case 10 times as much legislation as in the Norway case.)

    The UK has a vote but has never managed to stop a decision it disagreed with at the final vote.

    Norway has no vote but a veto.

    Please explain how the UK has more power over Single Market decision making than Norway?

    Norway has a veto on single market decisions ? Really ?Wasn't Switzerland told to F off
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    Your point is , London rule and greed is such that parts of the UK have a lower life expectancy than Africa. Does not help your unionist viewpoint much and clearly articulates my point that the UK is crap and ill divided, thank you for confirming the truth even if you were both sneeringly just trying to denigrate Scotland. I know Tories don't care a jot about the people , English , Scottish , Irish or Welsh.
    What a pair of lowlifes.
    Edinburgh rule of Scotland. Scottish lifestyle choices result in Scottish life expectancy. The pathetic chip on your shoulder is tiresome.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207

    malcolmg said:


    Odd then that Scotland has one of the highest rates of people born in that land who choose to live somewhere else (1.15m) and 835,000 of them select the non-Scotland parts of the UK rather than outside the UK.
    SCOTLAND’S DIASPORA AND OVERSEAS-BORN POPULATION 2009.

    There are more Scots in England than any city in Scotland.
    It might sound surprising, but according to the latest census figures, there are about 750,000 people born in Scotland who live south of the border. That's more than the population of Edinburgh or Glasgow.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27655496
    There are more English in Scotland than Scot's in any city in Scotland. hat's more than the population of Edinburgh or Glasgow
    LIAR

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-could-the-referendum-be-settled-by-the-english-9714987.html
    LOL, turnip. From your favourite paper the Dail Heil
    Revealed: The 500,000 English living in Scotland who are set to BLOCK independence (which makes up for all the expat Scots who don't have a vote)

    Even a Scotland hating emigrant like you will know that no Scottish city has that many people. Do not try to include all of West of Scotland in Glasgow numbers as your next LIE.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753400/Revealed-How-half-million-English-voters-living-Scotland-set-block-independence.html


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753400/Revealed-How-half-million-English-voters-living-Scotland-set-block-independence.html#ixzz3qFKkqwWm
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    So there is an interesting comparison between UK influence inside the EU and Norway influence from inside the EEA.

    Both sit on the committees and take full part in the drafting and decision making that goes into the development of new legislation.

    Both can influence behind the scenes.

    The differences.

    The UK has a vote in the final decision at the Council of the EU. It has no veto. It has been defeated on every single vote where it has opposed legislation up to the end 2014.

    Norway has a veto on legislation it fundamentally disagrees with. It has used this once regarding Postal services. There are claims it has also been used regarding railway legislation but I have failed to find a confirmed example for this.

    So both have influence and play a full part in drafting the legislation that affects them (In the UK case 10 times as much legislation as in the Norway case.)

    The UK has a vote but has never managed to stop a decision it disagreed with at the final vote.

    Norway has no vote but a veto.

    Please explain how the UK has more power over Single Market decision making than Norway?

    Norway has a veto on single market decisions ? Really ?Wasn't Switzerland told to F off
    Switzerland is not in the EEA. It has separate trade agreements with the EU.

    Also I believe Switzerland were trying to go back on agreements they had already signed up to. Very different to the process of having a veto at the time of proposal. Norway could not (and should not) be able to turn round and retrospectively renege on agreements they had already signed.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    Your point is , London rule and greed is such that parts of the UK have a lower life expectancy than Africa. Does not help your unionist viewpoint much and clearly articulates my point that the UK is crap and ill divided, thank you for confirming the truth even if you were both sneeringly just trying to denigrate Scotland. I know Tories don't care a jot about the people , English , Scottish , Irish or Welsh.
    What a pair of lowlifes.
    Places that keep voting for socialists end up with weak/poor economies. Look from SLAB to the SNP and back to SLAB.
    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
  • Options

    Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 11m11 minutes ago
    So - new law WILL let police see which websites you've visited w/out a warrant, just not which pages on those sites & not searches

    Hmm...

    Bonkers and pointless. Only the most idiotic of criminals wont use very cheap and very simple software to avoid this. I already use it on every internet enabled device, partly for privacy and partly for security (especially when out and about and connecting to public wifi).
    I dunno Francis.

    Sweeping up the stupid criminals is really how our police force operates.

    How many thousands of criminals are caught on CCTV etc?
  • Options

    malcolmg said:

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    And yet the SNP regime is reducing Scottish NHS funding relative to the rest of the UK.
    LIAR

    The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.

    The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.


    http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotland-scottish-government-protected-nhs/18887
    Thank you, although I doubt facts will penetrate Malcolm's addled mushy pea of a brain.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,201

    (snip)

    It'd be nice if you could have quoted that properly.

    As for your belief that Assad wouldn't go after the Kurds, I find that rather optimistic (and pro-Assad, as I'd expect from you). If you hadn't noticed, everyone is fighting everyone else in their attempts to shore up positions and make new ground. Assad and his family have a long and hideous track record of going after anyone who has opposed them.

    The one big red line the Kurds have is democracy: it seems reasonably clear that this is not necessarily democracy inside a larger Syria. Assad will not want to give them that as it means he loses the north of the country, and neither will neighbouring countries (particularly Turkey) want them to have it.

    The Kurds - and other innocent groups - need protecting not just from ISIS, but also the Syrian state and their Russian masters.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    Odd then that Scotland has one of the highest rates of people born in that land who choose to live somewhere else (1.15m) and 835,000 of them select the non-Scotland parts of the UK rather than outside the UK.
    SCOTLAND’S DIASPORA AND OVERSEAS-BORN POPULATION 2009.

    There are more Scots in England than any city in Scotland.
    It might sound surprising, but according to the latest census figures, there are about 750,000 people born in Scotland who live south of the border. That's more than the population of Edinburgh or Glasgow.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27655496
    There are more English in Scotland than Scot's in any city in Scotland. hat's more than the population of Edinburgh or Glasgow
    LIAR

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-could-the-referendum-be-settled-by-the-english-9714987.html
    LOL, turnip. From your favourite paper the Dail Heil
    Revealed: The 500,000 English living in Scotland who are set to BLOCK independence (which makes up for all the expat Scots who don't have a vote)

    Even a Scotland hating emigrant like you will know that no Scottish city has that many people. Do not try to include all of West of Scotland in Glasgow numbers as your next LIE.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753400/Revealed-How-half-million-English-voters-living-Scotland-set-block-independence.html


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753400/Revealed-How-half-million-English-voters-living-Scotland-set-block-independence.html#ixzz3qFKkqwWm
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Oh dear.....pleading your case based on the Daily Heil......I think the Independent more reliable as a rule, don't you?

    And the population of Glasgow is nearly 600,000 - with Edinburgh close on 500,000


    http://www.scotland.org/about-scotland/facts-about-scotland/population-of-scotland/

  • Options

    Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 11m11 minutes ago
    So - new law WILL let police see which websites you've visited w/out a warrant, just not which pages on those sites & not searches

    Hmm...

    Bonkers and pointless. Only the most idiotic of criminals wont use very cheap and very simple software to avoid this. I already use it on every internet enabled device, partly for privacy and partly for security (especially when out and about and connecting to public wifi).
    I dunno Francis.

    Sweeping up the stupid criminals is really how our police force operates.

    How many thousands of criminals are caught on CCTV etc?
    I guess so, but this wont do anything to tackle all but the most moronic criminals and even then the information for stuff like what to do on your smartphone is disseminated fairly quickly.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,201

    BTW, when can we expect indications of the Turkish election results?

    This site has an English (if sometimes slightly biased) take:
    http://www.jamesinturkey.com/live-turkey-votes-nov-2015/
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:



    UK is a dump compared to Germany , you just need to look at life there. It is no coincidence most refugees want to go there. London is a hell hole , a bad mix of haves and lots of have nots , polarised and well overrated. Only blinkered English people think it is the capital of Europe.

    Please do not confuse London with the rest of England. That London is, mostly, a dump I agree and, if forced to live in a city, I think I would prefer just about anywhere in Europe (except Paris, obviously) to it. However, London isn't England anymore than the east end of Glasgow is Scotland.

    I just wish I'd made more of the opportunities I'd had when I lived there. In over four years, I never went to the IWM, and only went to the science museum once. I've been to both many times since I moved away ...
    I spent lots and lots of time there in late seventies/early eighties. Had a great time and you could afford to have a good time then. Now large parts have been tarted up at the expense of the rest of the country , but it is very expensive and far too crowded. Horrible place to live unless you are loaded.
    Oh do shut it up. There are 5 branches of the IWM including one in Manchester. So the rest of the country is not being bled dry. Interestingly the EU contributed 9 million funding.
    Any idea where the Lowry centre is by the way. Cost over 100 million. Is this another example of London centricity?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 11m11 minutes ago
    So - new law WILL let police see which websites you've visited w/out a warrant, just not which pages on those sites & not searches

    Hmm...

    Bonkers and pointless. Only the most idiotic of criminals wont use very cheap and very simple software to avoid this. I already use it on every internet enabled device, partly for privacy and partly for security (especially when out and about and connecting to public wifi).
    It is worse than pointless, Mr. Urquhart. The Plod take the easy route and therefore serious criminals who avoid giving away potentially harmful data will be ignored in favour of chasing down lower order villains who are too stupid to conceal their activities.

    Furthermore, analysing electronic data is a great displacement activity. The old NCIS, now subsumed into SOCA or whatever it is called this year, were masters at this. They spent huge resources on call data analysis and working out who was connected to who but seldom if ever actually managed to translate such research into solid results.

    Keep all such powers of surveillance away from the police except with a warrant from a high court judge and everyone, except the "bad guys" will benefit.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    I find all these stats for Scotland bizarre, how is it happening?

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    TORIES and it is in very limited sites which were industrialised.
    Are they forced to smoke, drink excessive amounts of alcohol and eat lots of fried food etc?
    Answer is No. These are life style choices.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,542



    I used your story last night as a study of your gullibility and lack of fact-checking, not duplicity. And it was a corker.

    What a lot you've given me to chew on!

    This first. Why on earth would I 'fact check' something anecdotal (and stated as such) like that? How would I even do it - I don't even have contact details for this guy. I thought it was an interesting and entertaining addition to the discussion. I still think that. The fact that you've chosen this thin gruel to attack me over is really quite bizarre.

    As for gullibility, what is it except a meaningless value judgement? The opposite of gullibility is presumably a pathological difficulty/inability to accept changed circumstances and assimilate new paradigms, because such a radical change in world view would distress the individual too much. An example would be the imperial Chinese refusing to accept that their world had changed and they were now technologically inferior. I don't see that as a strength.
    As I said, you are utterly gullible. It was patently obvious that the story was a load of rubbish, which even a quick check on Wiki could have shown.

    It was quite easy: the Britannic was launched after the Titanic, and the first of the ships, the Olympic, was launched a year before the Titanic, so was hardly an elderly vessel.

    You even went for appeal to authority, with (from memory) a "naval architect" who had access to the archives.

    Given that these facts could be discovered in a couple of minutes on Wiki, it's a sign that you are eager to believe and spread just about any old horesesh@t conspiracy theory that you come across.

    It shows your repeatedly-stated fact- and source-checking is just a load of baloney.
    http://www.markchirnside.co.uk/pdfs/Conspiracy_Dissertation.pdf

    I think that answers the 'questions' raised by Robin Gardiner, who I presume is the person referred to by LuckyGuy.

    Gardiner has all the credibility of David Irving with none of the ability. It didn't require a Cambridge professor to debunk his work, an undergraduate at a fairly obscure UK university was sufficient.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    tlg86 said:

    ockquote class="Quote" rel="HYUFD">Excellent article Nick and a very good analysis. I agree with your overall assessment and think In will probably win but it will be tight, maybe something like 52% In 48% Out. Farage will, as you say, look to 'own' the No vote as Salmond and the SNP owned the 'Yes' vote in Scotland.

    Interestingly the BMG poll on Friday had it 52%-48% In across the UK but England split 50%-50%. Scotland was strongly In by 69% to 31% and Wales was also a clear In by 54% to 46%. London was almost as overwhelmingly In as Scotland with In leading 64% to 36% in the Capital but every other English region bar Yorkshire and Humber was for Out

    What's interesting is that the pattern is almost the opposite to that in 1975. The areas that voted to stay in by the largest amount back in 1975 are the places most likely to vote to leave this time and vice versa.

    As I recall it was only Orkney and Shetland that voted NO in 1975 ? I wonder what the figures for Ulster would be. Once again we see the polarisation and divergence in the United Kingdom between Scotland, London, Wales and presumably some other cities on one side and the rest of suburban and rural England on the other.

    I worry how different and divergent England is becoming with such a difference in mindset between the cities (especially but not exclusively London) and the suburban/rural areas, I'm sure many people on here will be quick to come up with explanations and who to blame but it is for me a worrying development.

    Last year, I argued that if the economic case for Scottish independence was flimsy, the economic case for an independent London was not. The social, cultural and political divergence may make that argument louder in the years to come.

    It is the same in much of the developed world, for example Obama and Kerry won New York and Chicago overwhelmingly but rural America and small town America voted strongly for Bush and Romney, no-one is yet arguing for an independent New York. Suburban London also tends to mirror the national trend more than the inner city, for example Boris won London because of the suburbs, inner London backed Ken. I would expect the likes of Bromley and Enfield to have a bigger Out vote than Islington and Kensington. In the same way in the US it is the suburbs which determine elections

    Wales is also not that different from England, for example In has a bigger lead in Yorkshire than Wales and UKIP came a strong second in Wales in the 2014 Euro elections. It is only Scotland and London where In is over 60%
    The suburbs of London will vote IN in a big way. That's where the City types live.
    Some will. I expect Bromley, Havering, Bexley, and Hillingdon will vote Leave.
  • Options

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:



    UK is a dump compared to Germany , you just need to look at life there. It is no coincidence most refugees want to go there. London is a hell hole , a bad mix of haves and lots of have nots , polarised and well overrated. Only blinkered English people think it is the capital of Europe.

    Please do not confuse London with the rest of England. That London is, mostly, a dump I agree and, if forced to live in a city, I think I would prefer just about anywhere in Europe (except Paris, obviously) to it. However, London isn't England anymore than the east end of Glasgow is Scotland.

    I just wish I'd made more of the opportunities I'd had when I lived there. In over four years, I never went to the IWM, and only went to the science museum once. I've been to both many times since I moved away ...
    I spent lots and lots of time there in late seventies/early eighties. Had a great time and you could afford to have a good time then. Now large parts have been tarted up at the expense of the rest of the country , but it is very expensive and far too crowded. Horrible place to live unless you are loaded.
    Oh do shut it up. There are 5 branches of the IWM including one in Manchester. So the rest of the country is not being bled dry. Interestingly the EU contributed 9 million funding.
    Any idea where the Lowry centre is by the way. Cost over 100 million. Is this another example of London centricity?
    More Londoncentricity:

    http://www.vandadundee.org
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    BTW, when can we expect indications of the Turkish election results?

    This site has an English (if sometimes slightly biased) take:
    http://www.jamesinturkey.com/live-turkey-votes-nov-2015/
    Thanks - possible exit poll in 10 minutes then, if anyone's doing one. Otherwise this evening, I guess.

    But, symbolically reflecting my semi-retirement from politics, I'm off to play poker at the Vic - won £800 there coming second in a big tournament last week, and £1300 at Aspers a few weeks earlier. I never play cash, liking to limit my maximum loss to the £57 entrance fee, and over the long haul I don't think I've done more than break even, but it's relaxing fun, so that's fine.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    London is generally a pretty nice place these days, although there are areas that are dumps: Newham, Kilburn etc. But malcomg is right that it is far too crowded, and that's only getting worse. It looks like there will be another couple million in a similar area within the next decade or two. I moved out the city because I just needed room to breathe.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    EPG said:

    So Skeps believe the UK has no say in EU as it stands, but would have a say when (English transation: if) they negotiated a deal like Liechtenstein.

    Who's making that argument?
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    I hadn't heard of Andrew Lewer before, but him and I seem to be in exactly the same position on the EU:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/11/andrew-lewer-mep-european-institutions-want-to-preach-but-they-dont-want-to-listen.html
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    The parts of London that are nice to live in would seem to be out of the reach of an ordinary family. It's an ok place to visit occasionally but to live and work there would be ghastly.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The parts of London that are nice to live in would seem to be out of the reach of an ordinary family. It's an ok place to visit occasionally but to live and work there would be ghastly.

    Really ? I live exactly there. It's nice around here.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.
  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Very bright and sunny day. Not very Novemberish at all.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    We've foggy Baskerville Grimpen Mire weather today.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Very bright and sunny day. Not very Novemberish at all.

  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mr surbiton, as a Spurs fan I invite you to walk from Seven Sisters station to the ground, or half a mile north in Edmonton where we park if driving. Having been based for several years in South London the same applies, from Bexleyheath going into central London is awful.

    My daughter lived until recently in Highgate,delightful place,heaven knows who raises a family there.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Of course if they leave Scotland they can live longer.
    "Life expectancy for those born in Scotland between 2010 and 2012 is 76.5 years for males and 80.7 years for females. This is the lowest of any of the four countries of the UK."
    "Topic Guide to: Life Expectancies" . UK National Statistics. Retrieved 9 June 2014.

    Life expectancy in parts of Glasgow is some of the lowest in Europe.

    Some parts lower than countries in Africa.
    Thats unfair to compare a subsection with an entire country. You might find the very best areas of Scotland compare positively to Japan as a whole.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Sadly, Spectre is a turkey. (good @riwalker101 bad review of latest Bond for @CapX) https://t.co/MtLTsQdS01
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It is just an ordinary medium turkey, the kind of turkey a middle-aged couple might order for a quiet Christmas at home without the children. How it managed to cost $300 million is anyone’s guess, but at that price it is certainly the most disappointing dinner for two in history.
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Sadly, Spectre is a turkey. (good @riwalker101 bad review of latest Bond for @CapX) https://t.co/MtLTsQdS01

  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Very bright and sunny day. Not very Novemberish at all.

    Very foggy here in Woking. Very apt after Halloween
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,542
    edited November 2015

    It is just an ordinary medium turkey, the kind of turkey a middle-aged couple might order for a quiet Christmas at home without the children. How it managed to cost $300 million is anyone’s guess, but at that price it is certainly the most disappointing dinner for two in history.
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Sadly, Spectre is a turkey. (good @riwalker101 bad review of latest Bond for @CapX) https://t.co/MtLTsQdS01



    Very good!

    For comparison, some other dismissive reviews:

    A text from a friend of mine told me that The Two Towers was 'as engaging as the Enterprise without a warp engine.'

    The play A Good Time earned a one-word review in The Times: 'No.'
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2009/sep/10/cinema-the-room-cult
    "The Citizen Kane of bad movies" (Entertainment Weekly); "a bad – shockingly bad – romantic tragedy" (Time Out New York); "prompts most of its viewers to ask for their money back – before even 30 minutes have passed" (Variety). Most film-makers have nightmares about reviews like these, but they've worked wonders for The Room, a movie whose transcendent awfulness has made it a cult phenomenon and an audience-participation fixture along the lines of The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

    It's difficult to make any sort of movie, good or bad, but to make a movie that's so bad it's good you need vision, drive, luck and obsessive vanity. Fortuitously, The Room's writer/producer/director/star Tommy Wiseau appears to possess all of these qualities, combined with a total lack of acting talent.
    ydoethur said:

    It is just an ordinary medium turkey, the kind of turkey a middle-aged couple might order for a quiet Christmas at home without the children. How it managed to cost $300 million is anyone’s guess, but at that price it is certainly the most disappointing dinner for two in history.
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Sadly, Spectre is a turkey. (good @riwalker101 bad review of latest Bond for @CapX) https://t.co/MtLTsQdS01

    Very good!

    For comparison, some other dismissive reviews:

    A text from a friend of mine told me that The Two Towers was 'as engaging as the Enterprise without a warp engine.'

    The play A Good Time earned a one-word review in The Times: 'No.'
  • Options
    Well, not everywhere can have weather as glorious as God's Own County ;)

    Mr. Doethur, better to be Marmite than a meandering, forgetful thing.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,542
    edited November 2015

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2009/sep/10/cinema-the-room-cult

    "The Citizen Kane of bad movies" (Entertainment Weekly)
    I've never really liked or rated Citizen Kane, I must admit, so to be told something is as bad as Citizen Kane is good would make me wonder if the film in question was actually alright.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,201
    Interesting (to me at least) snippet on the ballot-counting process in Turkish elections:
    Under the Turkish system a ballot box is immediately opened after 5pm, once everyone in the queue has voted, and all the ballot papers inside are counted. A report is then drawn up outlining the result from the ballot box and any observers who request it are given a copy of the report.

    The ballot papers are then placed into sacks, which are sealed and transported to the nearest regional election centre, where they are counted once again. It is at this stage that the votes are input into the official SEÇSİS computer system.
    http://www.jamesinturkey.com/live-turkey-votes-nov-2015/
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Oh, I'm very fond of Kane, I even went to Heurst Castle. http://hearstcastle.org/
    ydoethur said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2009/sep/10/cinema-the-room-cult

    "The Citizen Kane of bad movies" (Entertainment Weekly)
    I've never really liked or rated Citizen Kane, I must admit, so to be told something is as bad as Citizen Kane is good would make me wonder if the film in question was actually alright.

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Come on, chaps. If you don't start being nice to each other, I'll start discussing the optimal character builds for Fallout 4.

    And you wouldn't want that, now, would you?

    Actually I would!

  • Options
    SLab conference votes to oppose Trident renewal, against the view of their leader, Dugdale.
    So that's Scotland's largest party + Greens + the largest subset of a UK party against Trident. I look forward to the SCons campaigning as the branch office of the £167 billion insurance policy. (I'd guess even the SLDs have stopped caring what their position on Trident is).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,542

    Oh, I'm very fond of Kane, I even went to Heurst Castle. http://hearstcastle.org/

    ydoethur said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2009/sep/10/cinema-the-room-cult

    "The Citizen Kane of bad movies" (Entertainment Weekly)
    I've never really liked or rated Citizen Kane, I must admit, so to be told something is as bad as Citizen Kane is good would make me wonder if the film in question was actually alright.


    I preferred The Third Man of Welles' work. I even went to Vienna as a result!
  • Options
    Mr. M, you may also enjoy my pre-race piece, which includes two brave/insightful/stupid bets:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/mexico-pre-race.html

    I just hope it gets delivered on the day. We shall see.

    I already have a cunning plan for settlements, inspired by the round towers of monasteries or simple keep castles in the medieval era. I'll build a tall house, and put the only door high up, led to by a long, exposed walkway. That way, automated defences will be able to shoot raiders for ages.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ha! I bought all of Anton Karas albums after falling in love with the Third Man theme. It was a huge hit at the time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Man_Theme
    The theme became popular with audiences soon after the film's premiere, and more than half a million copies of "The Third Man Theme" record were sold within weeks of the film's release.[2]:450

    The tune was originally released in the U.K. in 1949, where it was known as "The Harry Lime Theme". Following its release in the U.S. in 1950 (see 1950 in music), "The Third Man Theme" spent 11 weeks at number one on Billboard's U.S. Best Sellers in Stores chart, from April 29 to July 8.[5] Its success led to a trend in releasing film theme music as singles. A guitar version by Guy Lombardo also sold strongly. Four other versions charted in the U.S. during 1950.[6] According to Faber and Faber, the different versions of the theme have collectively sold an estimated forty million copies.
    ydoethur said:

    Oh, I'm very fond of Kane, I even went to Heurst Castle. http://hearstcastle.org/

    ydoethur said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2009/sep/10/cinema-the-room-cult

    "The Citizen Kane of bad movies" (Entertainment Weekly)
    I've never really liked or rated Citizen Kane, I must admit, so to be told something is as bad as Citizen Kane is good would make me wonder if the film in question was actually alright.
    I preferred The Third Man of Welles' work. I even went to Vienna as a result!

  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Not sure if already posted...

    Sky news

    Man responsible for the Fall Of The Berlin Wall Dies

    Guenther Schabowski's slip up during a press conference prompted thousands of East Germans to dash to the border

    Schabowski, a senior member of, and spokesman for, the German Democratic Republic's ruling Politburo, was answering questions on new travel laws, enabling East German citizens to cross the border with no right of return, when he shocked reporters with his political bombshell.
    He prematurely announced that visas would also be issued allowing citizens to cross the border for private travel.

    He told reporters: "We have decided today ... um ... to implement a regulation that allows every citizen of the German Democratic Republic... um... to... um... leave East Germany through any of the border crossings." When asked when it would take effect, the clearly under prepared Schabowski stammered: "According to my information ... immediately, without delay."

    The announcement was not due to be made until the following morning, with strict provisions.

    However, German media immediately began reporting that the wall was open.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,542

    SLab conference votes to oppose Trident renewal, against the view of their leader, Dugdale.
    So that's Scotland's largest party + Greens + the largest subset of a UK party against Trident. I look forward to the SCons campaigning as the branch office of the £167 billion insurance policy. (I'd guess even the SLDs have stopped caring what their position on Trident is).

    So far, London Labour seems to be accepting the result.

    An awful lot could hinge on whether or not that continues. If they over-rule conference as they have in previous years, Corbyn's position will be either (1) enforcing the party line or (2) enraging his oldest allies. He would be wise to let Scottish Labour go their own way in this (well, frankly, in everything).
  • Options

    SLab conference votes to oppose Trident renewal, against the view of their leader, Dugdale.
    So that's Scotland's largest party + Greens + the largest subset of a UK party against Trident. I look forward to the SCons campaigning as the branch office of the £167 billion insurance policy. (I'd guess even the SLDs have stopped caring what their position on Trident is).

    So do I. I suspect that the share of Scottish opinion in favour of Trident is well in excess of the current SCon vote.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,122

    Mr surbiton, as a Spurs fan I invite you to walk from Seven Sisters station to the ground, or half a mile north in Edmonton where we park if driving. Having been based for several years in South London the same applies, from Bexleyheath going into central London is awful.

    My daughter lived until recently in Highgate,delightful place,heaven knows who raises a family there.

    Spurs supported in S. London. I just hope no-one umasks you!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    @malcolmg A Vanilla message for you
  • Options
    Disturbing news about the Russian airliner breaking up in the air. Only three possibilities as I see it.

    1. It was downed by a missile. I'd give this the lowest likelihood. A missile should have shown up on Egyptian radars and may well have been visible to witnesses (yes, it was in the desert and witnesses may be keeping quiet but would it be worth the risk?).

    2. There was a bomb on board. Ostensibly the most likely given the circumstances, except that were it the case, I'd have expected a group that planted it to have claimed responsibility.

    3. Non-violent structural failure. If true, a disaster for Airbus unless there's been deeply inadequate maintenance or something similar.
  • Options
    Mr. Herdson, are ISIS claiming they used a missile?
  • Options

    SLab conference votes to oppose Trident renewal, against the view of their leader, Dugdale.
    So that's Scotland's largest party + Greens + the largest subset of a UK party against Trident. I look forward to the SCons campaigning as the branch office of the £167 billion insurance policy. (I'd guess even the SLDs have stopped caring what their position on Trident is).

    So do I. I suspect that the share of Scottish opinion in favour of Trident is well in excess of the current SCon vote.
    I presume then you are tearing into the 9/4 currently offered by Shadsy on the SCons having most seats (without SNP) after the next Holyrood election.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,380
    edited November 2015
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, what is 'a stake with Trident'?
    A charming fusion of old & new military technologies? An electoral weapon to force through the hearts of nasty Nats, lefties & peaceniks?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214

    SLab conference votes to oppose Trident renewal, against the view of their leader, Dugdale.
    So that's Scotland's largest party + Greens + the largest subset of a UK party against Trident. I look forward to the SCons campaigning as the branch office of the £167 billion insurance policy. (I'd guess even the SLDs have stopped caring what their position on Trident is).

    So do I. I suspect that the share of Scottish opinion in favour of Trident is well in excess of the current SCon vote.
    According to yougov in January 18% of Scots would back full replacement of Trident (which is 4% more than Scottish Tories got in May). An additional 24% want a less powerful nuclear deterrent with 48% of Scots wanting to scrap nuclear weapons completely
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ksx1tw2rj8/TimesResults_150126_Trident_Website.pdf
  • Options
    F1: hmm. Interesting.

    Weather forecast has changed. Sunday looked entirely dry. Now rain is possible.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,122

    Mr. Herdson, are ISIS claiming they used a missile?

    Not a thunderbolt from Allah then?
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Totally OT:
    Just had a discussion with someone about air pollution in the UK. They were utterly convinced that it was getting worse and worse, that it has never been so bad. When i said that the opposite was the case, and it hasnt been as good as it is now for a generation, they just absolutely would not believe me. Perceptions are incredibly powerful, even when they have absolutely no basis in fact.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Interesting (to me at least) snippet on the ballot-counting process in Turkish elections:

    Under the Turkish system a ballot box is immediately opened after 5pm, once everyone in the queue has voted, and all the ballot papers inside are counted. A report is then drawn up outlining the result from the ballot box and any observers who request it are given a copy of the report.

    The ballot papers are then placed into sacks, which are sealed and transported to the nearest regional election centre, where they are counted once again. It is at this stage that the votes are input into the official SEÇSİS computer system.
    http://www.jamesinturkey.com/live-turkey-votes-nov-2015/

    Given the Turkish government just took over two critical newspapers, so they published pro-Erdokan pieces on the front page the next day, I don't have much faith in this election. Turkey is clearly now an authoritarian regime, and every politician that supports its EU membership is severely mistaken.
  • Options
    Mr. JEO, there's that, and the taking off-air of two critical TV stations.

    Erdogan's dodgy as hell. Assuming the count is legitimate, and his party doesn't win again (or even loses votes), would he permit another party to form the government? I'll believe that when I see it.

    Agree also on Turkey joining the EU. It used to be a great advert for what a Muslim nation can be. Modern, tolerant, secular, but it's been backsliding ever since Erdogan got his mitts on power.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2015

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, what is 'a stake with Trident'?
    A charming fusion of old & new military technologies? An electoral weapon to force through the hearts of nasty Nats, lefties & peaceniks?
    Calm down. It's only a typo.
    Interestingly, the human mind usually auto-fills those missing letters so that you get the whole concept without even noticing the small omission.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    Interesting to see if SLab's move left has much impact at Holyrood next year. Personally I think it will boost the Tories rather than Labour on the constituency vote with the SNP unchanged, however on the regional list vote I would not be surprised to see some SNP voters vote Labour on their top up vote thus boosting the unionist position overall
  • Options

    Mr. Herdson, are ISIS claiming they used a missile?

    It's possible a bomb could have been planted in luggage, but this would be a grave breakdown in security wouldn't it?

    It's been revealed that this plane is 18 years old and 14 years ago it was involved in an accident where it banged its tail into the runway when landing. It's been operated and we he services by various airlines since. This is the second incident involving fatalities for this airline in 4 years. Maybe it's tail fell off in flight?
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Disturbing news about the Russian airliner breaking up in the air. Only three possibilities as I see it.

    1. It was downed by a missile. I'd give this the lowest likelihood. A missile should have shown up on Egyptian radars and may well have been visible to witnesses (yes, it was in the desert and witnesses may be keeping quiet but would it be worth the risk?).

    2. There was a bomb on board. Ostensibly the most likely given the circumstances, except that were it the case, I'd have expected a group that planted it to have claimed responsibility.

    3. Non-violent structural failure. If true, a disaster for Airbus unless there's been deeply inadequate maintenance or something similar.

    Disturbing news about the Russian airliner breaking up in the air. Only three possibilities as I see it.

    1. It was downed by a missile. I'd give this the lowest likelihood. A missile should have shown up on Egyptian radars and may well have been visible to witnesses (yes, it was in the desert and witnesses may be keeping quiet but would it be worth the risk?).

    2. There was a bomb on board. Ostensibly the most likely given the circumstances, except that were it the case, I'd have expected a group that planted it to have claimed responsibility.

    3. Non-violent structural failure. If true, a disaster for Airbus unless there's been deeply inadequate maintenance or something similar.

    As I mentioned yesterday. The breakup occurred at low level not at 31000 feet the recorded height at the start of the problems. The aircraft dropped rapidly which may have resulted in excessive stresses on the air frame and possible failure. The investigators will be looking for the issue that resulted in the rapid descent.

    For example the Lockerbie break up occurred at high altitude and the debris field was enormous. The airliner that dived in a field on 9/11 was intact at the point of impact had a debris field the size of a football pitch. The debris field ( so far) from the Sinai crash is a little over 3 miles so far reported. So low level breakup rather that high altitude explosion for whatever reason. Unless of course they find engine parts a few miles back down the aircrafts flight plan which indicates engine failure causing the rapid descent but even that's doubtful as the plane can continue on one engine. So what could take out both engines. Fuel contamination normally? It didn't even glide though.... Mmmmmmm? It really doesn't seem to have hallmarks of missile or even a bomb for that matter.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,019

    Disturbing news about the Russian airliner breaking up in the air. Only three possibilities as I see it.

    1. It was downed by a missile. I'd give this the lowest likelihood. A missile should have shown up on Egyptian radars and may well have been visible to witnesses (yes, it was in the desert and witnesses may be keeping quiet but would it be worth the risk?).

    2. There was a bomb on board. Ostensibly the most likely given the circumstances, except that were it the case, I'd have expected a group that planted it to have claimed responsibility.

    3. Non-violent structural failure. If true, a disaster for Airbus unless there's been deeply inadequate maintenance or something similar.

    I am reading reports on aviation forums that the accident aircraft was involved in a serious tail strike 15 years ago that took 3 months to be repaired. It won't be the first time that such as repair has failed in flight.

    Also seeing reports that some bodies were found a number of miles from the main wreckage, which would indicate an in-flight break up.

    Of your scenarios, 1 is unlikely but 2 and 3 are equally probable.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Mr. JEO, there's that, and the taking off-air of two critical TV stations.

    Erdogan's dodgy as hell. Assuming the count is legitimate, and his party doesn't win again (or even loses votes), would he permit another party to form the government? I'll believe that when I see it.

    Agree also on Turkey joining the EU. It used to be a great advert for what a Muslim nation can be. Modern, tolerant, secular, but it's been backsliding ever since Erdogan got his mitts on power.

    Well he has successfully suppressed the opposition with waves of arrests, bombings, and even war in eastern Turkey.
    The results speaks for itself, in that in just a couple of months Erdogan went from his worst electoral result to a new all record high.

    Lets get rid of any illusion that Turkey is a western democracy, they have the Russian system of "you can vote for anyone you like as long as it's the government"that is seen in many third world countries. That means that Erdogan will remain president for life, which will result in greater chaos in the middle east.
  • Options
    notme said:

    Totally OT:
    Just had a discussion with someone about air pollution in the UK. They were utterly convinced that it was getting worse and worse, that it has never been so bad. When i said that the opposite was the case, and it hasnt been as good as it is now for a generation, they just absolutely would not believe me. Perceptions are incredibly powerful, even when they have absolutely no basis in fact.

    To what extent does this depend on the metric used?

    I'm well aware that we are far better off by many measures, particularly in urban areas - compared to the 1950s, or the Victorians, and perhaps even far further back to when folk were daily exposed to smoke from wood-burning fires. I've seen it claimed that London has better air quality now than in the 1500s.

    But on the other hand, the last couple of decades have seen an increase in diesel vehicles in city centres and they do have a different pollution profile. So are there some measures by which things are getting worse, rather than better?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,211

    Disturbing news about the Russian airliner breaking up in the air. Only three possibilities as I see it.

    1. It was downed by a missile. I'd give this the lowest likelihood. A missile should have shown up on Egyptian radars and may well have been visible to witnesses (yes, it was in the desert and witnesses may be keeping quiet but would it be worth the risk?).

    2. There was a bomb on board. Ostensibly the most likely given the circumstances, except that were it the case, I'd have expected a group that planted it to have claimed responsibility.

    3. Non-violent structural failure. If true, a disaster for Airbus unless there's been deeply inadequate maintenance or something similar.

    4. A loan nutjob on the plane. (Can include the pilot, as German Wings proved earlier this year.)

    5. Sabotage

    It might just be coincidence, but I think the fact that a Russian airliner was blown up in that part of the world, just after Russia got involved in the regional mess is suggestive.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,506
    So Scottish Labour are in favour of getting rid of Trident but are led by someone who is in favour of replacing it. UK Labour is in favour of keeping Trident but is led by someone who is opposed to it.

    I think an optimistic person would say whatever your views the party has them covered. A pessimist would suggest a certain lack of clarity.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,211

    Mr. Herdson, are ISIS claiming they used a missile?

    It's possible a bomb could have been planted in luggage, but this would be a grave breakdown in security wouldn't it?

    It's been revealed that this plane is 18 years old and 14 years ago it was involved in an accident where it banged its tail into the runway when landing. It's been operated and we he services by various airlines since. This is the second incident involving fatalities for this airline in 4 years. Maybe it's tail fell off in flight?
    That would suggest monumentally poor maintenance procedures.

    Mind you, this airline has not been without its... issues.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Mr. Herdson, are ISIS claiming they used a missile?

    It's possible a bomb could have been planted in luggage, but this would be a grave breakdown in security wouldn't it?

    It's been revealed that this plane is 18 years old and 14 years ago it was involved in an accident where it banged its tail into the runway when landing. It's been operated and we he services by various airlines since. This is the second incident involving fatalities for this airline in 4 years. Maybe it's tail fell off in flight?
    I think that is the most likely outcome of the tail falling off, if not and it was a missile then Egypt and Russia would have an extra common enemy in the middle east further messing things up.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mr surbiton, as a Spurs fan I invite you to walk from Seven Sisters station to the ground, or half a mile north in Edmonton where we park if driving. Having been based for several years in South London the same applies, from Bexleyheath going into central London is awful.

    My daughter lived until recently in Highgate,delightful place,heaven knows who raises a family there.

    What's wrong with the route from Seven Sisters station to WHL ? Are you not being able to write that you do not like the colour of people's faces ? Don't be so shy, spell it out.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    edited November 2015
    GeoffM said:

    Come on, chaps. If you don't start being nice to each other, I'll start discussing the optimal character builds for Fallout 4.

    And you wouldn't want that, now, would you?

    Actually I would!

    Ditto!
    notme said:

    Totally OT:
    Just had a discussion with someone about air pollution in the UK. They were utterly convinced that it was getting worse and worse, that it has never been so bad. When i said that the opposite was the case, and it hasnt been as good as it is now for a generation, they just absolutely would not believe me. Perceptions are incredibly powerful, even when they have absolutely no basis in fact.

    Reminds me of a long conversation I had with a Jehovah's Witness a few months ago. They seemed taken aback I didn't think we were living through the worst age of human history, that perhaps, for instance, the 14th Century might have been a bit worse in most respects, and refused to even consider things are not much worse now, like end times worse. But then I suppose they are not renowned for their optimism.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.

    What a joker !
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.

    What a joker !
    I doubt anything can really revive the Scottish Tories at the present time, or if it is even possible, and cannot judge if she is best placed to make the attempt, but she does come across as pretty funny (for a politician that is) and engaging.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    DavidL said:

    So Scottish Labour are in favour of getting rid of Trident but are led by someone who is in favour of replacing it. UK Labour is in favour of keeping Trident but is led by someone who is opposed to it.

    I think an optimistic person would say whatever your views the party has them covered. A pessimist would suggest a certain lack of clarity.

    It's just a case of mismatched loyalties and opinions, scottish Labour have to be in favour of scraping trident because they are desperate for any SNP voter to go their way, however their leader is middle of the road on this so she doesn't want to scrap it.

    Most Labour MP's would disagree with Corbyn whatever his position, but this is one of the few positions which the PLP hold which are actually in tune with the wider public and Labour voters.
    Trident is Corbyn's only big weakness, but nuclear weapons are not in peoples minds since the cold war ended, it's a mystery to me why the SNP and the Greens place such an importance to an issue that if people cared they would be solidly against their position.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    SLab conference votes to oppose Trident renewal, against the view of their leader, Dugdale.
    So that's Scotland's largest party + Greens + the largest subset of a UK party against Trident. I look forward to the SCons campaigning as the branch office of the £167 billion insurance policy. (I'd guess even the SLDs have stopped caring what their position on Trident is).

    So far, London Labour seems to be accepting the result.

    An awful lot could hinge on whether or not that continues. If they over-rule conference as they have in previous years, Corbyn's position will be either (1) enforcing the party line or (2) enraging his oldest allies. He would be wise to let Scottish Labour go their own way in this (well, frankly, in everything).
    If Scottish Labour and "whole of Labour" take radically different positions, particularly on reserved issues, at what point do they stop being the same party? When you vote for your (hypothetical) MP, and it says "Labour" by his (ahem, her) name on the ballot paper, which Labour is he (highly theoretically, "she")?

    Quoting from the BBC piece "Shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray said moves to make the party in Scotland more autonomous meant it could "have a different position on anything it wants" ... has anyone worked out what this means in practice? They can get away with this, so long as there is only MP, a faction unto himself. When it gets near election time, doesn't it start to matter?
  • Options
    Mr. kle4 (and Mr. M), going for a sniper build initially, but a little softer than it might be so I can have the armour modification perk as well as hacking and lockpicking [that said, lockpicking falls under Perception and that should be high anyway]. Also going to jack up Charisma a lot, just because it suits my approach. An alternative would be high Luck for better criticals, and/or high Agility for the Ninja perk.

    The other style that tempted me was melee. There's the obvious high Strength/Endurance set-up, but an alternative could be high Luck (depends how good the Fighting Irish perk is) and/or high Intelligence. Every attribute has a bonus beyond perks, and Intelligence increases gained XP. Some reckon hiking that whatever your character build (given perk points can be used to increase the SPECIAL stats as well as buying perks) is actually more effective than optimising the initial SPECIAL for perks.

    You will get a chance to alter the SPECIAL stats after the initial prologue, I believe. Uncertain if you can change your character's physical appearance at that moment.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2015
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.

    What a joker !
    I doubt anything can really revive the Scottish Tories at the present time, or if it is even possible, and cannot judge if she is best placed to make the attempt, but she does come across as pretty funny (for a politician that is) and engaging.
    She does come across as a nice person, but to me she doesn't really seem like the type who could win over Toryish swing voters. She'd probably be a better fit (personality-wise, not policy-wise) as a Scottish Labour leader.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    Speedy said:

    DavidL said:

    So Scottish Labour are in favour of getting rid of Trident but are led by someone who is in favour of replacing it. UK Labour is in favour of keeping Trident but is led by someone who is opposed to it.

    I think an optimistic person would say whatever your views the party has them covered. A pessimist would suggest a certain lack of clarity.

    It's just a case of mismatched loyalties and opinions, scottish Labour have to be in favour of scraping trident because they are desperate for any SNP voter to go their way, however their leader is middle of the road on this so she doesn't want to scrap it.

    Most Labour MP's would disagree with Corbyn whatever his position, but this is one of the few positions which the PLP hold which are actually in tune with the wider public and Labour voters.
    Trident is Corbyn's only big weakness, but nuclear weapons are not in peoples minds since the cold war ended, it's a mystery to me why the SNP and the Greens place such an importance to an issue that if people cared they would be solidly against their position.
    Overall a plurality of UK voters want to keep nuclear weapons but have a cheaper version than Trident, a plurality of Scots want to scrap nuclear weapons altogether
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.

    What a joker !
    I doubt anything can really revive the Scottish Tories at the present time, or if it is even possible, and cannot judge if she is best placed to make the attempt, but she does come across as pretty funny (for a politician that is) and engaging.
    Independence would revive the Scottish Tories. Countries need a party of the right to sort out the mess the left leaves behind, at the moment as London can be blamed Scotland can get away with that anomaly. Remove the London bogeyman and Scotland will need to balance the books.

    The SNP won't be on the right so either the Tories or some other party would be. Realistically there are no other right-leaning parties of any real merit in Scotland so it will be the Tories. Though they may change name.

    Besides Ruth Davidson is a class act and if she stays and Labour continue to implode it is plausible to start to imagine the Tories becoming Scotland's official second party behind the SNP.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mr. JEO, there's that, and the taking off-air of two critical TV stations.

    Erdogan's dodgy as hell. Assuming the count is legitimate, and his party doesn't win again (or even loses votes), would he permit another party to form the government? I'll believe that when I see it.

    Agree also on Turkey joining the EU. It used to be a great advert for what a Muslim nation can be. Modern, tolerant, secular, but it's been backsliding ever since Erdogan got his mitts on power.

    Other parties would not have the numbers or could even be politically acceptable to each other. AK = Erdogan's party [ the old Adalet or Justice Party after many re-incarnations. Always won elections unless the General's were involved. CHP = Social Democrats of the West. HDP = Kurd Nationalist Alliance. MHP = Far-right Turkish Nationalists.

    AK will have to be involved one way or another.
  • Options
    Mr. Surbiton, I'm sure AK will be involved. I'm just wondering whether the numbers will be real or fictional (leaving aside their unacceptable approach to the media).
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.

    What a joker !
    I doubt anything can really revive the Scottish Tories at the present time, or if it is even possible, and cannot judge if she is best placed to make the attempt, but she does come across as pretty funny (for a politician that is) and engaging.
    She does come across as a nice person, but to me she doesn't really seem like the type who could win over Toryish swing voters. She'd probably be a better fit (personality-wise, not policy-wise) as a Scottish Labour leader.
    The Tories were the only one of the big four Scottish parties other than the SNP to increase their vote. Share fell down due to the overwhelming SNP surge (and much higher turnout) but Tory vote went up by 22k at the same time as Labour lost 328k votes and the Lib Dems lost 246k

    I don't think there will be a Scottish Tory vote but Davidson is the best leader the Scottish Tories could have.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,201
    edited November 2015

    Disturbing news about the Russian airliner breaking up in the air. Only three possibilities as I see it.

    1. It was downed by a missile. I'd give this the lowest likelihood. A missile should have shown up on Egyptian radars and may well have been visible to witnesses (yes, it was in the desert and witnesses may be keeping quiet but would it be worth the risk?).

    2. There was a bomb on board. Ostensibly the most likely given the circumstances, except that were it the case, I'd have expected a group that planted it to have claimed responsibility.

    3. Non-violent structural failure. If true, a disaster for Airbus unless there's been deeply inadequate maintenance or something similar.

    On the third point, PPrune rreport that the airframe had had a tail strike years ago (where the tail drags along the runway on landing or takeoff). There have been a couple of in-flight breakups in the past due to incorrect fixes to tailstrikes, many years after the repairs. AIUI, the pressure dome at the back of the plane can shift back (did in the JAL case), rupturing the hydraulic cables and losing parts of the tail. In the JAL case, they had very little control and flew for a long while before impacting a mountain.

    If the plane had suffered a tailstrike in the past, I'd take that as being the prime suspect at the moment. But IANAE, and DYOR.

    Edit: the JAL flight where this happened:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123
    And the Chinese Air Lines flight:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2015
    Speedy said:

    Mr. Herdson, are ISIS claiming they used a missile?

    It's possible a bomb could have been planted in luggage, but this would be a grave breakdown in security wouldn't it?

    It's been revealed that this plane is 18 years old and 14 years ago it was involved in an accident where it banged its tail into the runway when landing. It's been operated and we he services by various airlines since. This is the second incident involving fatalities for this airline in 4 years. Maybe it's tail fell off in flight?
    I think that is the most likely outcome of the tail falling off, if not and it was a missile then Egypt and Russia would have an extra common enemy in the middle east further messing things up.
    If tail fails and detaches in flight then off it is most unlikely it would be within the 3 mile area but would be possible further back down the flight path. Not saying it wasn't this but that possibility would be very easy to confirm or rule out without a single black box even needing to be opened.
Sign In or Register to comment.