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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s PB quickie poll and this week’s local elections r
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s PB quickie poll and this week’s local elections results
Risedale on Barrow in Furness (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 428 (53% -24%), United Kingdom Independence Party 193 (24% +1%), Conservative 187 (23%, no candidate in 2015)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 235 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Lab to UKIP
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BMG: Remain 52%, Leave 48%
YouGov: Remain 50%, Leave 50%
ICM: Remain 54%, Leave 46%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
@MSmithsonPB: Before ComRes applied its turnout model in latest phone poll for the Mail - LAB had small lead. See https://t.co/NePNV8QBbt
and Franklins last polar voyage http://www.channel4.com/programmes/hunt-for-the-arctic-ghost-ship
https://mobile.twitter.com/huffpostukpics/status/528294110612819972
:off-to-TD-Towers:
It's well known that it's steel was inferior and its rivetting flawed. And of course it's watertight doors did not go from top to bottom.
Many many more could have been saved if they'd had a proper evacuation plan and had filled all their lifeboats to capacity.
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/615920/Peter-Hargreaves-why-he-backs-Brexit-why-Mark-Carney-should-keep-out
The same day as we find out the City will not be protected from attacks by the EU.
1) The steel used had higher levels of various other elements in than modern steel. However, people at the time knew that the steel they used seemed to be brittle - particularly when cold. They compensated by using higher safety margins. The Titanic broke in half when the stress on it's hull exceeded 160% of the design specification (itself conservative). The wreck on the sea floor shows no signs of brittle failure - lots of steel twisted and torn, not fractured. Her sister the Olympic survived many decade of hard service and her hull was in excellent condition according to the ship breakers.
2) The riveting was standard for the day - iron rivets were always used in the hard to reach areas. The small samples of failed rivets collected were a self selecting set - the ones that failed were picked up. Again, the hull died very slowly - torn apart rather than falling apart.
3) The bulkheads went higher than most contemporary ships. In fact the compartmentation exceeds that of a number of modern cruise ships.
4) What they needed was more seamen. More boats on their own wouldn't have helped. Interestingly, a test reproduction of the loading of the boats, using the equipment made for the movie, took longer to load less. In daylight, with cooperative, fit adult volunteers, from a quay side
But if all the lifeboats had been filled and indeed a bit over filled then many more could have been saved.
I've often thought that with 3 hours available then why could they not build a few rafts?
A head on collision would appear to be a better outcome given the engineering.
Anyways both docus are excellent and frankly much better than the time wasting sentimental biopics/classical music foreground music offered by the BBC
A lifetimes exposure to Titanic documentaries wasted.
However the documentary re steel I remember was not about its back breaking but the seams splitting as its scraped along the iceberg
If there really was another ship close by (the crew thought there was, and it was later identified as the SS Californian, whose master was blamed for not coming to the rescue that night) then possibly enough people could have been shuttled across for the lifeboat capacity not to have been a problem.
EDIT I found the Franklin one grisly and compelling.
Given the way he has behaved this season, first with the club Doctor business and with his behavior at West Ham, would the club have grounds to sack him for gross misconduct?
Well from the one that had the Tories ahead by 13%, the change is that about 10% of over 55's who are ABC1 women living in the north and the midlands (basically the category that won for the Tories the last election) switched from the Tories to Labour.
Everything else is about the same with the exception of scotland were ComRes has the SNP ridiculously low on 34% just 9 points ahead of the Tories.
Yes I believe you are broadly right. However the boat davits were sort of state of the art and in fact could have carried 2 (3?) lifeboats each, not just 1. However this took up a lot of deck space and in the end the space was used to provide some sort of snazzy walking promenade space.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BMG-Research-Westminster-Voting-Intentions-and-the-EU-Referendum-Tables-291015.pdf
Those on the very left and those on the right are most likely to vote including those who like the government are living in rural or suburban areas and are rich, the ones least likely are centrists who have no opinion about the government are "cosmopolitans" or ethnic minorities and are poor.
Voting on a political axis
Very left wing/ Left/ Slightly left/Centrist/Slightly Right/ Right/ Very Right
CON 3 / 16/ 14/ 33/ 70/ 74/ 63
LAB 68 / 60/ 55/ 28/ 7/ 1/ 0
UKIP 3 /2 / 9/ 19/ 18/ 24/ 37
LD 4 / 9/ 8/ 8/ 2/ 0/ 0/
GRN 14 / 4/ 6/ 6/ 4/ 2/ 1/ 0
SNP 7 /8/ 6/ 4/ 2/ 1/ 0
Who describes himself as left wing and votes Tory?
But the problem for Labour becomes obvious that they are leaking on their left.
There are many other juicy bits on the tables, table 6 in particular.
Voting by urban/suburban / rural/ cosmopolitan/ethnic minorities/multicultural areas:
CON 42/ 43/ 53/ 37/ 28/ 33
LAB 32/ 24/ 21/ 33/ 46/ 37
UKIP 10/ 21/ 15/ 5/ 12/ 16
LD 7/ 7/ 3/ 10/ 6/ 5.
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Daily-Mail_October-2015_Political-poll.pdf
And he bought the lads pizza as promised:
http://mobile.lcfc.com/news/article/ranieri-keeps-pizza-promise-as-leicester-squad-enjoy-clean-sheet-reward-2772312.aspx
You might mean the Olympic, the first of the three ships; but that had its maiden voyage just the year before the Titanic's, and was therefore hardly old. Besides that, there were many differences between the ships that mariners and shipworkers would have been able to tell between them.
Ditto any other ship; the Olympic class were fairly different to the other large ships, and passengers at the time (yet alone crew) would have been familiar with them, yet alone the differences between the three Olympic ships.
As it happens, the Olympic was only a few hundred miles away from the sinking Titanic and (from memory) heading in the other direction. That would have made it rather hard to do a swapsie.
Then there are the chances of finding a suitable iceberg on the route, at night, and without changing direction to hit it.
It was a hideous accident, albeit one that may well have saved tens of thousands of lives through the lessons learnt.
Aside from that, it's cr@p. Utter and total cr@p.
This conspiracy theory reminds me of the Argentinians who believe they sunk a British aircraft carrier during the Falklands conflict. They rather wrap themselves up in knots over that. Some even claim that the US built an Invincible-class carrier in secret, then sailed it to the South Atlantic to replace the sunk carrier ...
The Titanic was steaming at 21 knots, which was fast but not Blue Ribband fast, on a very calm night and saw the iceberg too late.the Officer of the Watch made a split second decision to avoid the berg and really couldn't be blamed for trying to miss.
Had any modern cruise liner, such as Costa Concordia or other large ships of a similar size sustained similar damage, they would probably have capsized very quickly without the opportunity to get all their (inadequate) lifeboats away...
BMG's overall Tory lead of 37% to Labour's 31% is almost unchanged from May
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BMG-Research-Westminster-Voting-Intentions-and-the-EU-Referendum-Tables-291015.pdf
Great stuff as usual.
I like these monthly summaries, but would it be possible to have both the "before" and "after" vote aggregate percentages? I think this would put a bit of perspective on things.
However across the UK In wins 41%-39% thanks to a 56%-20% In margin in Scotland and a 45-36% In margin in Wales. So ironically while the SNP complain Scotland and Wales may be forced out of the EU by England, it may actually be Scotland and Wales which keep England in the EU against its wishes if a narrow English Out
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BMG-Research-Westminster-Voting-Intentions-and-the-EU-Referendum-Tables-291015.pdf
However would they not have double hulls... and fancy keels giving stability?
As an aside, the Americans have just built a massively expensive warship, the USS Zimwalt, which features a tumblehome hull. AIUI, tumblehome hulls were more or less abandoned for modern ships because of their instability after damage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tumblehome
As a further aside, I once sailed on a tall ship out of Southampton, and we passed close to one of the modern large cruise ship (I think it was Independence of the Seas). The sailing ship was not small, but from deck the cruise ship's hull was just a sheer vertical expense of metal heading up to the sky. Very impressive. I think the cruise ship's deck was higher than the top of the masts.
The capsize of the whale watchers in Canada apparently from crowding on the upper deck demonstrates these can still happen.
I guess tumblehome in sailing ships facilitated the heavy guns on the lower decks, as well as climbing up from boats at sea level.
That graphic is like taking ICM's data using pre-92 weightings.
Trump 28 (+11)
Carson 23 (-1)
Rubio 11 (0)
Bush 6 (-2)
Cruz 6 (0)
Fiorina 3 (-6)
What amazed me about that incident was that the ship was back in service a month or two later!