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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 29th 2015 – 3 Con, 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem defences

Risedale on Barrow in Furness (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 27, Conservative 9 (Labour majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,474, 1,361, 1,310 (77%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 438, 348 (23%)
Candidates duly elected: Michael Cassells (Lab), Carole Friend (Con), Colin Rudd (UKIP)

Read the full story here

Sean_F

Thanks. Actually, I think Peterborough was rather a good result for Labour in May.

Danny565

Sean_F said:

Thanks. Actually, I think Peterborough was rather a good result for Labour in May.

Yes, it was one of their better results in a southern marginal.

Richard_Tyndall

Not sure that this gets said often enough but many thanks for all your hard work on these local election threads Harry.

RobD

Richard_Tyndall said:

Not sure that this gets said often enough but many thanks for all your hard work on these local election threads Harry.

Once a thread isn't enough given the amount of effort that clearly goes in.

TheWhiteRabbit

The question I currently have is: will Bush even last the course?

My assumption has always been that he would. Rock solid.

Now I'm not so sure.

MTimT

TheWhiteRabbit said:

The question I currently have is: will Bush even last the course?

My assumption has always been that he would. Rock solid.

Now I'm not so sure.

Agreed. I would suspect that there will soon, despite the faux fireworks between the two last night, be negotiations between the Bush and Rubio camps. Bush shouldn't be asking for the VP slot, but a cabinet position he cares about or positioning of his people in a Rubio Administration. Earlier, I'd said I'd like to see a Kasich/Rubio ticket, but Kasich has not delivered. Now I'd choose Rubio at the top with him choosing a woman for the VP slot - preferably Susanna Martinez or Nikki Haley.

Pulpstar

MTimT said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

The question I currently have is: will Bush even last the course?

My assumption has always been that he would. Rock solid.

Now I'm not so sure.

Agreed. I would suspect that there will soon, despite the faux fireworks between the two last night, be negotiations between the Bush and Rubio camps. Bush shouldn't be asking for the VP slot, but a cabinet position he cares about or positioning of his people in a Rubio Administration. Earlier, I'd said I'd like to see a Kasich/Rubio ticket, but Kasich has not delivered. Now I'd choose Rubio at the top with him choosing a woman for the VP slot - preferably Susanna Martinez or Nikki Haley.

Might be a smart move for Bush to drop out and chuck his weight behind Rubio. The loons are way out in front !

foxinsoxuk

Fpt:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

By the way, re transhipments: around 250,000 TEUs go from the UK via Rotterdam each year.

Interestingly, more than 1,000,000 come the other way. Which means that the figures for the EU's trade surplus with the UK are overstated, as they include a lot of imports that are from China (or wherever) via Rotterdam.

Is a TEU a shipping container? It is a new term to me.

Wouldn't the Rotterdam re-exports show as trade with the Netherlands for both imports and exports and so be seperable from trade with the remainder of the EU?

Twenty-foot equivalent unit. I think the sizes were standardized shortly after the war.

Thanks.

The interconnectedness of various imports/exports can be quite bewildering. I remember an interesting article from New Internationalist about a pair of jeans imported from Bangladesh. By the time you had accounted for the retail markup, branding, advertising, cotton from Egypt, thread from somewhere else, dye from somewhere else again and rivets from anothet place made from copper from country Z it was very hard to figure out who had sold what to whom!

Leaving the EU is not likely to increase this transhipment trade though. I suppose the question is whether it reduces marginally or in a big way.

I shall be sticking with In. I rather like the ease that I can fill vacancies with excellent staff from Greece, Spain and Portugal with a minimum of red tape, and quite fancy retiring to Europe myself.

By the way: any news from the booze up? A good turnout?

MP_SE

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

TheWhiteRabbit

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

notme

That's an interesting set of by elections...

dr_spyn

foxinsoxuk said:

Fpt:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

By the way, re transhipments: around 250,000 TEUs go from the UK via Rotterdam each year.

Interestingly, more than 1,000,000 come the other way. Which means that the figures for the EU's trade surplus with the UK are overstated, as they include a lot of imports that are from China (or wherever) via Rotterdam.

Is a TEU a shipping container? It is a new term to me.

Wouldn't the Rotterdam re-exports show as trade with the Netherlands for both imports and exports and so be seperable from trade with the remainder of the EU?

Twenty-foot equivalent unit. I think the sizes were standardized shortly after the war.

Thanks.

The interconnectedness of various imports/exports can be quite bewildering. I remember an interesting article from New Internationalist about a pair of jeans imported from Bangladesh. By the time you had accounted for the retail markup, branding, advertising, cotton from Egypt, thread from somewhere else, dye from somewhere else again and rivets from anothet place made from copper from country Z it was very hard to figure out who had sold what to whom!

Leaving the EU is not likely to increase this transhipment trade though. I suppose the question is whether it reduces marginally or in a big way.

I shall be sticking with In. I rather like the ease that I can fill vacancies with excellent staff from Greece, Spain and Portugal with a minimum of red tape, and quite fancy retiring to Europe myself.

By the way: any news from the booze up? A good turnout?

I had wondered when the next one was, but I've missed the boat once again.

NickPalmer

Had a pleasant PB meetup - OGH, Barnesian, AveIt, David Brackenbury, isam, antifrank, PhilipH and others whose names I missed. People looked very like I imagined (which is a good thing in these cases)! No Cyclefree - hope her tests went OK.

JosiasJessop

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

By the way, re transhipments: around 250,000 TEUs go from the UK via Rotterdam each year.

Interestingly, more than 1,000,000 come the other way. Which means that the figures for the EU's trade surplus with the UK are overstated, as they include a lot of imports that are from China (or wherever) via Rotterdam.

Is a TEU a shipping container? It is a new term to me.

Wouldn't the Rotterdam re-exports show as trade with the Netherlands for both imports and exports and so be seperable from trade with the remainder of the EU?

Twenty-foot equivalent unit. I think the sizes were standardized shortly after the war.

Thanks.

The interconnectedness of various imports/exports can be quite bewildering. I remember an interesting article from New Internationalist about a pair of jeans imported from Bangladesh. By the time you had accounted for the retail markup, branding, advertising, cotton from Egypt, thread from somewhere else, dye from somewhere else again and rivets from anothet place made from copper from country Z it was very hard to figure out who had sold what to whom!

(snip)

We had a sample chip made once. From memory, there were about twenty chips on a multi-project wafer. The wafer was fabricated in China (Shenzhen, I think). Our chips (at this stage just the bare silicon) were liberated from the wafer and then flown to Austria, where they were packaged (the covering of the silicon, including pinout for connection). From there, they went to the US for basic electrical testing and external packaging, whilst most were sent to us in the UK for our testing, whilst a few were sent back to our office in China.

All that travel to produce a few samples of something 6mm by 6mm, with value added at every stage. And we couldn't be sure they worked properly until we got them back into our hands.

It's a bit of a bummer when you spend six to twelve months designing a chip, then wait months for them to fabricated, just to find the chips are DOA.

Speedy

Labour has some interesting defences, Risedale on Barrow in Furness in particular due to Woodcock to see any changes.

david_herdson

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

dr_spyn

Great front page from The Express...cue for references to King James Bible from Genesis-1-28, in not quite so many words.

TheWhiteRabbit

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

Richard_Tyndall

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

viewcode

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

By the way, re transhipments: around 250,000 TEUs go from the UK via Rotterdam each year.

Interestingly, more than 1,000,000 come the other way. Which means that the figures for the EU's trade surplus with the UK are overstated, as they include a lot of imports that are from China (or wherever) via Rotterdam.

Is a TEU a shipping container? It is a new term to me.

Wouldn't the Rotterdam re-exports show as trade with the Netherlands for both imports and exports and so be seperable from trade with the remainder of the EU?

Twenty-foot equivalent unit. I think the sizes were standardized shortly after the war.

Thanks.

The interconnectedness of various imports/exports can be quite bewildering. I remember an interesting article from New Internationalist about a pair of jeans imported from Bangladesh. By the time you had accounted for the retail markup, branding, advertising, cotton from Egypt, thread from somewhere else, dye from somewhere else again and rivets from anothet place made from copper from country Z it was very hard to figure out who had sold what to whom!

Leaving the EU is not likely to increase this transhipment trade though. I suppose the question is whether it reduces marginally or in a big way.

I shall be sticking with In. I rather like the ease that I can fill vacancies with excellent staff from Greece, Spain and Portugal with a minimum of red tape, and quite fancy retiring to Europe myself.

The transhipment/transshipment/whateva thing is quite the problem...

IIRC, the body responsible for identifying transshipped items and their final destination is HMRC via the Intrastat system[3]. But the body responsible for *collating* trade figures is ONS. I usually tell people who disagree with the ONS figures to contact the ONS (they will address your query), but I find that somebody already has[2]. ONS currently seem to think that trade figures with the Netherlands is higher than you'd expect and that the Rotterdam[1] effect may actually exist, but that has to be counterbalanced by the consideration that Netherlands-GB trade has been high for centuries and that trade with other ports will act in the other direction.

If however we move from the question "does the effect exist" to "how big is the effect", then ONS have done some work on upper/lower bounds, which can be found in the same document[2].

[1] sometimes expanded to the "Rotterdam-Antwerp" effect
[2] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html
[3] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/introduction-to-intrastat

bigjohnowls

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mps-line-up-slam-6730056?1

I missed this earlier, presume it was applauded.

NickPalmer

Interesting post-debate poll on the last thread - Bush unambiguously the loser, everyone else got net favourables, and Trump has resumed his lead. Rubio in 3rd but not yet closing.

david_herdson

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

I'd agree with that. 20/1 is quite attractive but far better if you can lay off on the same exchange.

viewcode

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

isam

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Pulpstar

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

I'd agree with that. 20/1 is quite attractive but far better if you can lay off on the same exchange.

I've got a false red on Trump on Betfair so laying there is better value for me now

Have asked for 20 on Cruz at 888, £5.91 auto approved - waiting on the rest.

14.5/21.0 for an event happening in under a year is ok.

Mortimer

Danny565 said:

Sean_F said:

Thanks. Actually, I think Peterborough was rather a good result for Labour in May.

Yes, it was one of their better results in a southern marginal.

Peterborough isn't really Southern.....

foxinsoxuk

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

Freggles

NickPalmer said:

Had a pleasant PB meetup - OGH, Barnesian, AveIt, David Brackenbury, isam, antifrank, PhilipH and others whose names I missed. People looked very like I imagined (which is a good thing in these cases)! No Cyclefree - hope her tests went OK.

Did Barnesian look like a big yellow sun?

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

It accounts for about 10% of the overall EU trade in goods figures for both imports and exports according to the ONS.

flightpath01

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

That's because its not much different to our own.
Does Norway have an important service sector?
Norway's foreign minister is in fact saying that Norway has no say on EU laws and impliments EU rules as fast as it can. He says Norway is very close to the EU.
All of which points to the fact that there is little difference to being out of the EU as to being in the EEA.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

I'd agree with that. 20/1 is quite attractive but far better if you can lay off on the same exchange.

I've got a false red on Trump on Betfair so laying there is better value for me now

Have asked for 20 on Cruz at 888, £5.91 auto approved - waiting on the rest.

14.5/21.0 for an event happening in under a year is ok.

It was 16.5 last time I checked (to lay).

£10 x 21 = £210. £210/16.5=£12.72 so something like 20% return (once evened out)?

Hmm.

MP_SE

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

I'd agree with that. 20/1 is quite attractive but far better if you can lay off on the same exchange.

I've got a false red on Trump on Betfair so laying there is better value for me now

Have asked for 20 on Cruz at 888, £5.91 auto approved - waiting on the rest.

14.5/21.0 for an event happening in under a year is ok.

It was 16.5 last time I checked (to lay).

£10 x 21 = £210. £210/16.5=£12.72 so something like 20% return (once evened out)?

Hmm.

Someone just snapped up the 14.5 available to lay Cruz and he is now at 15.

Richard_Tyndall

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Anything is 'admissable'. No one has said that anyone should not have an opinion, at least no one on here as far as I have seen.

Whether that opinion is valid or reasonable is another matter. If the Norwegian woman was talking about whether or not the UK should stay in the EU I would say it is none of her business even if, as in this case she is anti-EU. But since she is talking about the experience of her own country and correcting the misleading and false statements being made by Cameron about Norway then I think it is valid.

Pulpstar

MP_SE said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

I'd agree with that. 20/1 is quite attractive but far better if you can lay off on the same exchange.

I've got a false red on Trump on Betfair so laying there is better value for me now

Have asked for 20 on Cruz at 888, £5.91 auto approved - waiting on the rest.

14.5/21.0 for an event happening in under a year is ok.

It was 16.5 last time I checked (to lay).

£10 x 21 = £210. £210/16.5=£12.72 so something like 20% return (once evened out)?

Hmm.

Someone just snapped up the 14.5 available to lay Cruz and he is now at 15.

That was me

foxinsoxuk

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

It accounts for about 10% of the overall EU trade in goods figures for both imports and exports according to the ONS.

Thanks. What do you think would the effect would be of Brexit on this trade?. Presumably if stuff was shipped direct then there would be some cost implications (after all companies currently could ship direct, but presumably have a financial reason not to do so).

isam

isam said:

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Oh and Nick Palmer

I felt a bit bad barging into a convo he was having extolling the virtues of St jezza by saying I thought he was a billion to one to be PM

NickPalmer

Freggles said:

NickPalmer said:

Had a pleasant PB meetup - OGH, Barnesian, AveIt, David Brackenbury, isam, antifrank, PhilipH and others whose names I missed. People looked very like I imagined (which is a good thing in these cases)! No Cyclefree - hope her tests went OK.

Did Barnesian look like a big yellow sun?

He looked like an affable Ian from Barnes...

foxinsoxuk

isam said:

isam said:

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Oh and Nick Palmer

I felt a bit bad barging into a convo he was having extolling the virtues of St jezza by saying I thought he was a billion to one to be PM

Billion to one? Could I place 1p with you at those odds :-)

Stranger things have happened!

Pulpstar

@Thewhiterabbit The maths starts working out beautifully once you have a nice big (false or true) red on one of the Betfair bods since you can start extracting the stake (And more if you like) instantly.

DavidBrackenbury

On the train home as well. The first time I have attended a PB evening, but great value indeed! Great to see Fat Steve, Isam, Kieran, Nick Palmer, Barnsien, OGH, PhilipH, Antifrank and Ave it. Much conversation, the world is set to rights and all will be submitted to a panel of Jack W and Malcolm G for sign off....

MP_SE

Pulpstar said:

MP_SE said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MP_SE said:

Can back Cruz at 20/1 on Unibet and 32red and lay him at 16.5 on Betfair Exchange.

If you think it's worth it!

I think it is. Cruz is well placed if a higher-profile Tea Partier or populist falls by the wayside.

I'm backing Cruz, but I doubt it's worth backing at 20/1 at a traditional bookie and laying on betfair

I'd agree with that. 20/1 is quite attractive but far better if you can lay off on the same exchange.

I've got a false red on Trump on Betfair so laying there is better value for me now

Have asked for 20 on Cruz at 888, £5.91 auto approved - waiting on the rest.

14.5/21.0 for an event happening in under a year is ok.

It was 16.5 last time I checked (to lay).

£10 x 21 = £210. £210/16.5=£12.72 so something like 20% return (once evened out)?

Hmm.

Someone just snapped up the 14.5 available to lay Cruz and he is now at 15.

That was me

Thought it could have been someone on here. All the bookies have cut their odds now.

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

isam said:

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Oh and Nick Palmer

I felt a bit bad barging into a convo he was having extolling the virtues of St jezza by saying I thought he was a billion to one to be PM

Billion to one? Could I place 1p with you at those odds :-)

Stranger things have happened!

Not my trading price!

I just can't see it though

NickPalmer

isam said:

isam said:

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Oh and Nick Palmer

I felt a bit bad barging into a convo he was having extolling the virtues of St jezza by saying I thought he was a billion to one to be PM

I was too slow, should have put 10p on at those odds :-)

Pulpstar

@MP_SE Amazed they let me have £20 on tbh. I think I might have a Kasich bet somewhere but can't remember where.

Richard_Tyndall

flightpath01 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

That's because its not much different to our own.
Does Norway have an important service sector?
Norway's foreign minister is in fact saying that Norway has no say on EU laws and impliments EU rules as fast as it can. He says Norway is very close to the EU.
All of which points to the fact that there is little difference to being out of the EU as to being in the EEA.

Other Norwegian ministers say something very different. More importantly so does the EEA agreement which governs relations between Norway and the EU.

The Eurofanatical minister you quote was the leader of the Federalist European Movement in Norway so it is not surprising he is desperate or his country to join and or the UK to stay in. Of course he will misrepresent the real relationship in order to support that position.

As I have said often before the way you represent the Norwegian or EEA relationship with the EU is completely false - the actual agreements show that to be the case but as with everything else to do with the EU and EEA you ignore that because it doesn't suit your partial view.

So, just as you were completely wrong about the UK EU contribution earlier this evening, this is yet another in a long line of cases where you are wrong.

I would have thought by now you would have learnt.

viewcode

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

The answer depends on the assumptions one makes. The ONS article I linked to[1] says the plausible-upper-bound of the effect is that in 2013 it increased UK-EU exports from 46.1% to 50.4% of total UK exports, and increased EU-UK imports from 49.1% to 53.3% of total UK imports. The plausible-lower-bound is it had no effect, as everything balances out. The truth is presumably between the two.

If you make different assumptions, you will get different answers. I have an inherent bias towards the ONS (I'm a statistician), so I tend to prefer their estimates, but as ever all things are provisional and fleeting...

[1] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

It accounts for about 10% of the overall EU trade in goods figures for both imports and exports according to the ONS.

Thanks. What do you think would the effect would be of Brexit on this trade?. Presumably if stuff was shipped direct then there would be some cost implications (after all companies currently could ship direct, but presumably have a financial reason not to do so).

My understanding - and this is only dragged up from distant memory - is that there was a decision made in the late 60s or 70s about where to concentrate a container port which would serve as the main entry point for international trade into Europe. I was always told that it was basically between Liverpool, London and Rotterdam but that union problems in the UK ports swung the decision in favour of Rotterdam.

Personally I think that what probably swung it in favour of Rotterdam was access to a very large and well organised River system that could serve the heart of Europe as opposed to the need for additional cross channel traffic if a British port were chosen.

This is a long winded way of saying that I don't think this really has much to do with the EU except in so far as statistics are calculated and that whether or not the UK was in the EU I don't think it would make much change at all to transit trade through Rotterdam - nor to EU trade for that matter.

foxinsoxuk

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

isam said:

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Oh and Nick Palmer

I felt a bit bad barging into a convo he was having extolling the virtues of St jezza by saying I thought he was a billion to one to be PM

Billion to one? Could I place 1p with you at those odds :-)

Stranger things have happened!

Not my trading price!

I just can't see it though

To be honest, I cannot see it happening either.

A lot depends on how events unfold but Jezza would have to be very very lucky, and for the Tories to be very very stupid. So quite possible after all.

Pulpstar

Jezza next PM must be at least 40-1.

Jezza to ever be PM is no bigger than perhaps 10s.

Danny565

Kezia Dugdale seems like a very nice lady, but Nicola is going to have her for breakfast.

Pulpstar

Ben Carson 40-1 Next President with Bwin.

Someone please take advantage, sadly my max bet is £0.00 !

They're also still 13-2 Rubio.

foxinsoxuk

viewcode said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

The answer depends on the assumptions one makes. The ONS article I linked to[1] says the plausible-upper-bound of the effect is that in 2013 it increased UK-EU exports from 46.1% to 50.4% of total UK exports, and increased EU-UK imports from 49.1% to 53.3% of total UK imports. The plausible-lower-bound is it had no effect, as everything balances out. The truth is presumably between the two.

If you make different assumptions, you will get different answers. I have an inherent bias towards the ONS (I'm a statistician), so I tend to prefer their estimates, but as ever all things are provisional and fleeting...

[1] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html

It is hard to see how Brexit would increase the trade, so presumably the risk is on the downside. Not easy to do the sums. Presumably in the absence of a free trade agreement (perhaps EEA membership so trade could continue as at present) the benefit would go to British dockyards, but adversely affect import/export oriented companies.

AndyJS

This young guy on Newsnight is frightening me to death. If all students are like him we're doomed.

foxinsoxuk

Pulpstar said:

Jezza next PM must be at least 40-1.

Jezza to ever be PM is no bigger than perhaps 10s.

Con majority was 10/1 even on election eve as I recall.

We seem to be able to predict everything except the future!

AndreaParma_82

Chorley - Euxton North

T Gray (Lab) 697
A Platt (Con) 443
C Suart (UKIP) 76

foxinsoxuk

AndreaParma_82 said:

Chorley - Euxton North

T Gray (Lab) 697
A Platt (Con) 443
C Suart (UKIP) 76

Looks like Corbyn is winning back the kipper vote!

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

isam said:

On the train home from the drinkies! Was nice to meet several people for the first time, Kieran, Antifrank, Barnesian, Philliph and the irrepressible David Brackenbury!

Good value!

Oh and Nick Palmer

I felt a bit bad barging into a convo he was having extolling the virtues of St jezza by saying I thought he was a billion to one to be PM

Billion to one? Could I place 1p with you at those odds :-)

Stranger things have happened!

Not my trading price!

I just can't see it though

To be honest, I cannot see it happening either.

A lot depends on how events unfold but Jezza would have to be very very lucky, and for the Tories to be very very stupid. So quite possible after all.

As I said to the boys tonight, my friends never talk politics, but one of them piped up in the pub the other night 'what the fuck is the new labour bloke all about?'

Normalish people will never vote for him, I'm w Dan Hodges

AndreaParma_82

Shenfield

Con 852
LD 483
UKIP 85
Lab 49
Green 16

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

The answer depends on the assumptions one makes. The ONS article I linked to[1] says the plausible-upper-bound of the effect is that in 2013 it increased UK-EU exports from 46.1% to 50.4% of total UK exports, and increased EU-UK imports from 49.1% to 53.3% of total UK imports. The plausible-lower-bound is it had no effect, as everything balances out. The truth is presumably between the two.

If you make different assumptions, you will get different answers. I have an inherent bias towards the ONS (I'm a statistician), so I tend to prefer their estimates, but as ever all things are provisional and fleeting...

[1] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html

It is hard to see how Brexit would increase the trade, so presumably the risk is on the downside. Not easy to do the sums. Presumably in the absence of a free trade agreement (perhaps EEA membership so trade could continue as at present) the benefit would go to British dockyards, but adversely affect import/export oriented companies.

It is easy to see how Brexit would increase trade if it removed some of the barriers that currently exist to trade because of our membership of the EU.

Pulpstar

Billy Bragg sounds a bit deluded to me.

foxinsoxuk

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

The answer depends on the assumptions one makes. The ONS article I linked to[1] says the plausible-upper-bound of the effect is that in 2013 it increased UK-EU exports from 46.1% to 50.4% of total UK exports, and increased EU-UK imports from 49.1% to 53.3% of total UK imports. The plausible-lower-bound is it had no effect, as everything balances out. The truth is presumably between the two.

If you make different assumptions, you will get different answers. I have an inherent bias towards the ONS (I'm a statistician), so I tend to prefer their estimates, but as ever all things are provisional and fleeting...

[1] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html

It is hard to see how Brexit would increase the trade, so presumably the risk is on the downside. Not easy to do the sums. Presumably in the absence of a free trade agreement (perhaps EEA membership so trade could continue as at present) the benefit would go to British dockyards, but adversely affect import/export oriented companies.

It is easy to see how Brexit would increase trade if it removed some of the barriers that currently exist to trade because of our membership of the EU.

Yes there would be other effects that might make the net effect in other ways. That would be a different set of sums. I take it that you agree that (in the absence of an EEA type deal) that the effect on trade via Rotterdam to be a decrease in both directions?

notme

AndreaParma_82 said:

Shenfield

Con 852
LD 483
UKIP 85
Lab 49
Green 16

that's a dreadful result...

foxinsoxuk

notme said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Shenfield

Con 852
LD 483
UKIP 85
Lab 49
Green 16

that's a dreadful result...

For everyone bar the Tories!

nigel4england

Pulpstar said:

Billy Bragg sounds a bit deluded to me.

Does he still slum it in Burton Bradstock?

NickPalmer

isam said:

Normalish people will never vote for him, I'm w Dan Hodges

I refer my honourable friend to Chorley Euxton North. 14% UKIP->Lab swing. You saying Lancashire folk aren't normal? :-)

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

The answer depends on the assumptions one makes. The ONS article I linked to[1] says the plausible-upper-bound of the effect is that in 2013 it increased UK-EU exports from 46.1% to 50.4% of total UK exports, and increased EU-UK imports from 49.1% to 53.3% of total UK imports. The plausible-lower-bound is it had no effect, as everything balances out. The truth is presumably between the two.

If you make different assumptions, you will get different answers. I have an inherent bias towards the ONS (I'm a statistician), so I tend to prefer their estimates, but as ever all things are provisional and fleeting...

[1] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html

It is hard to see how Brexit would increase the trade, so presumably the risk is on the downside. Not easy to do the sums. Presumably in the absence of a free trade agreement (perhaps EEA membership so trade could continue as at present) the benefit would go to British dockyards, but adversely affect import/export oriented companies.

It is easy to see how Brexit would increase trade if it removed some of the barriers that currently exist to trade because of our membership of the EU.

Yes there would be other effects that might make the net effect in other ways. That would be a different set of sums. I take it that you agree that (in the absence of an EEA type deal) that the effect on trade via Rotterdam to be a decrease in both directions?

No I don't. Most international trade is now governed by WTO agreements that supercede any EU agreements and I very much doubt there would be any reduction in trade even without an EEA style deal. The two sides will have two years to sort something ouot and both have too much to lose not to make a trade deal even without EEA membership. Personally I prefer the EEA route as it is simpler but I don't for a minute think that there will be any serious disruption to UK EU trade nor to UK International trade via Rotterdam even without EEA membership.

MarkSenior

notme said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Shenfield

Con 852
LD 483
UKIP 85
Lab 49
Green 16

that's a dreadful result...

It is about a 2% swing from Con to LD from the result in this ward in May

Stark_Dawning

'... but in an age of Lib Dems fighting back and as we have seen twice this week threatening to expose the lack of a Conservative majority in the Lords, how long will it be before Brentwood goes back to No Overall Control and Tim Farron is able to travel to Essex after a set of local elections and announce (for the first time in nearly 11 years) “Liberal Democrats : Winning Here”'

Some time yet clearly. I wonder if the electorate are more constitutionally sophisticated than the commentariat give them credit for? Perhaps the Lib Dems' tomfoolery in the Lords smacked of arrogance and sore losing, and the Lib Dems have been rightly and suitably punished for their presumptions. Terrible blunder by Farron if so.

TheScreamingEagles

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Pulpstar

Hinkley point !

TheScreamingEagles

@britainelects: Risedale (Barrow in Furness) result:
LAB - 53.0% (-24.1)
UKIP - 23.9% (+1.0)
CON - 23.1% (+23.1)

isam

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

Normalish people will never vote for him, I'm w Dan Hodges

I refer my honourable friend to Chorley Euxton North. 14% UKIP->Lab swing. You saying Lancashire folk aren't normal? :-)

I wouldnt say that! We shall see... I just don't even contemplate the thought of him as our PM

AndreaParma_82

Barrow

Lab 428
Con 187
UKIP 193

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

notme

AndreaParma_82 said:

Chorley - Euxton North

T Gray (Lab) 697
A Platt (Con) 443
C Suart (UKIP) 76

Good result for Labour. On a low turnout they maintained their vote. I presume from leakage from UKIP and Cons. I suspect the Cons thought they might be in with a chance on this.

foxinsoxuk

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Clearly many Norwegians do not agree with Mr Cameron's view of their relationship with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11963908/Actually-Mr-Cameron-we-Norwegians-are-happy-rich-and-free-outside-the-EU.html

For future reference, are you saying that the opinion of foreigners in the EU debate is admissable...:-)

Thanks for the answer below. Once the Rotterdam (and presumably similar ports) is removed. How much difference does it make to our trade balance with the EU?

The answer depends on the assumptions one makes. The ONS article I linked to[1] says the plausible-upper-bound of the effect is that in 2013 it increased UK-EU exports from 46.1% to 50.4% of total UK exports, and increased EU-UK imports from 49.1% to 53.3% of total UK imports. The plausible-lower-bound is it had no effect, as everything balances out. The truth is presumably between the two.

If you make different assumptions, you will get different answers. I have an inherent bias towards the ONS (I'm a statistician), so I tend to prefer their estimates, but as ever all things are provisional and fleeting...

[1] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html

I.

It is easy to see how Brexit would increase trade if it removed some of the barriers that currently exist to trade because of our membership of the EU.

Yes there would be other effects that might make the net effect in other ways. That would be a different set of sums. I take it that you agree that (in the absence of an EEA type deal) that the effect on trade via Rotterdam to be a decrease in both directions?

No I don't. Most international trade is now governed by WTO agreements that supercede any EU agreements and I very much doubt there would be any reduction in trade even without an EEA style deal. The two sides will have two years to sort something ouot and both have too much to lose not to make a trade deal even without EEA membership. Personally I prefer the EEA route as it is simpler but I don't for a minute think that there will be any serious disruption to UK EU trade nor to UK International trade via Rotterdam even without EEA membership.

What country or bloc that breaks up has seen a net increase or no change in mutual trade? And which trading bloc has failed to see an increase in cross border trade when formed?

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

@britainelects: Risedale (Barrow in Furness) result:
LAB - 53.0% (-24.1)
UKIP - 23.9% (+1.0)
CON - 23.1% (+23.1)

Infinite rise by the Tories there. Lovely.

AndyJS

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@britainelects: Risedale (Barrow in Furness) result:
LAB - 53.0% (-24.1)
UKIP - 23.9% (+1.0)
CON - 23.1% (+23.1)

Infinite rise by the Tories there. Lovely.

Everything on course for a stonking Tory gain in Barrow & Furness at the next general election, if this result is any sort of guide.

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

There was no Con candidate last time, just Lab and kipper. Hard to concieve a swing against the Tories there!

AndyJS

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

@britainelects: Risedale (Barrow in Furness) result:
LAB - 53.0% (-24.1)
UKIP - 23.9% (+1.0)
CON - 23.1% (+23.1)

The Lords thing is starting to look like a momentousness blunder by both the Lib Dems and Labour. Far better to let the legislation pass and have the Tories reap the whirlwind (if it so happens). Now Osborne can repackage the policy to his benefit, and the Lib Dems and Labour look like constitutional wreckers into the bargain. Not smart politics.

isam

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Quite a clear rebuttal of the 'UKIP don't do well where there are immigrants' nonsense there

Ukip get less than 1/3 of the white vote in a white majority area and almost half where whites are the minority

Barnesian

NickPalmer said:

Freggles said:

NickPalmer said:

Had a pleasant PB meetup - OGH, Barnesian, AveIt, David Brackenbury, isam, antifrank, PhilipH and others whose names I missed. People looked very like I imagined (which is a good thing in these cases)! No Cyclefree - hope her tests went OK.

Did Barnesian look like a big yellow sun?

He looked like an affable Ian from Barnes...

The big yellow sun is a photo of the front of the Sun Inn by the pond in Barnes. It cheers me up every time I see it.

It was a good night tonight. Really interesting conversations. Only problem was that I'd forgotten my key so had to have another pint in my local while I waited for my wife to come home. I tried to tell her all about my interesting conversations but she wasn't interested.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Stark_Dawning said:

The Lords thing is starting to look like a momentousness blunder by both the Lib Dems and Labour. Far better to let the legislation pass and have the Tories reap the whirlwind (if it so happens). Now Osborne can repackage the policy to his benefit, and the Lib Dems and Labour look like constitutional wreckers into the bargain. Not smart politics.

Maybe, just maybe, the Lib Dems and Labour thought Osborne's tax credits policy was a bloody awful one which would enormously hurt less well off working people, and consequently didn't want it to happen and sought to wreck it.

There's nothing "smart" about letting through a hugely destructive policy so that you can carp about it later on, and it says a great deal about you that you that it is the sort of thing you'd countenance doing.

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Quite a clear rebuttal of the 'UKIP don't do well where there are immigrants' nonsense there

Ukip get less than 1/3 of the white vote in a white majority area and almost half where whites are the minority

That's assuming that UKIP got zero votes from non white voters surely? Are you seriously proposing that?

foxinsoxuk

In other election news the Emperor Palpatine has been elected to Odessa council. I suppose that the clone army was helpful with leafletting!

Sadly Chewbaca had a tangle with the law:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/8399638

No doubt LG1983 will come by to explain how this is all a US State department subterfuge. These are not the politcians that you are looking for...

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Quite a clear rebuttal of the 'UKIP don't do well where there are immigrants' nonsense there

Ukip get less than 1/3 of the white vote in a white majority area and almost half where whites are the minority

That's assuming that UKIP got zero votes from non white voters surely? Are you seriously proposing that?

I shouldn't think they get that many from Pakistanis, so in this case yes I am seriously proposing that

AndyJS

O/T:

Dog named Trigger shoots owner in the foot:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34644333

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Quite a clear rebuttal of the 'UKIP don't do well where there are immigrants' nonsense there

Ukip get less than 1/3 of the white vote in a white majority area and almost half where whites are the minority

That's assuming that UKIP got zero votes from non white voters surely? Are you seriously proposing that?

I shouldn't think they get that many from Pakistanis, so in this case yes I am seriously proposing that

It would be quite concerning to get zero I wouldn't think so. UKIP aren't the BNP.

And if 53.7% are Pakistani then 46.3% are not.

Danny565

So nice to see super-rich Julia Hartley-Brewer lecturing low-paid workers that they should make do with even less.

Pulpstar

Hartley Brewer telling it like it is.

ThreeQuidder

Sorry I missed tonight, had to work late. Really want to meet some of you guys...

Haven't been posting much - need to improve on that - but have been reading. Put a tenner on Putin for Time POTY - that was the max Ladbroke's let me have. And I don't have a record of taking hundreds - let alone thousands - off them...

AndyJS

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Quite a clear rebuttal of the 'UKIP don't do well where there are immigrants' nonsense there

Ukip get less than 1/3 of the white vote in a white majority area and almost half where whites are the minority

That's assuming that UKIP got zero votes from non white voters surely? Are you seriously proposing that?

I shouldn't think they get that many from Pakistanis, so in this case yes I am seriously proposing that

It would be quite concerning to get zero I wouldn't think so. UKIP aren't the BNP.

And if 53.7% are Pakistani then 46.3% are not.

UKIP won't poll zero with those groups but I'd be surprised if they get more than about 5%.

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

Does Oldham West & Royton have a nuclear industry ?

I hadn't realised quite how divided the constituency is.

In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015

Quite a clear rebuttal of the 'UKIP don't do well where there are immigrants' nonsense there

Ukip get less than 1/3 of the white vote in a white majority area and almost half where whites are the minority

That's assuming that UKIP got zero votes from non white voters surely? Are you seriously proposing that?

I shouldn't think they get that many from Pakistanis, so in this case yes I am seriously proposing that

It would be quite concerning to get zero I wouldn't think so. UKIP aren't the BNP.

And if 53.7% are Pakistani then 46.3% are not.

I would think they get close on zero Muslim votes in big Muslim areas... Maybe in places where there are few Muslims they may do better as those Muslims will be more assimilated

Yes so as i said UKIP do better on the non immigrant vote in areas where there are lots of immigrants than they do where there are few

Pulpstar

Avoiding the Time bet personally. Never like these bets where you don't know who all the runners are !

Tissue_Price

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
Liberal Democrat GAIN Hellingly (Wealden) from Conservative.

The yellow shoots of recovery?

Speedy

If anyone in PB wants to know what goes on inside a presidential election campaign in the US, look now, I present to you the leak of the full 112 pages Q3 internal campaign report of Jeb Bush which includes among others dirt on other candidates and internal polling :

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2015/10/29/jeb-bushs-campaign-blueprint

Forget about the West Wing, this is the real thing.

foxinsoxuk

Pulpstar said:

Avoiding the Time bet personally. Never like these bets where you don't know who all the runners are !

I would have thought Trump at 5/1 is quite likely given the magazine is American, but Dave Cameron at 25/1 or Hillary at the same price are worthy of consideration.

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Avoiding the Time bet personally. Never like these bets where you don't know who all the runners are !

I'd have a stab at aylam kurdi.

He doesn't seem to be listed, although unibet+skins offer "The asylum seekers" @ 4/1 which would probably pay out.

Not tempted at those odds though!