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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeb Bush’s bid for the GOP nomination looks even more in do

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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Eventually you'll like the film.

    Possibly, but unlikely.

    I saw Skyfall 3 times in short succession. I would happily have sat through it again as soon as I saw it the first time.

    I couldn't wait for Spectre to end
    I am the opposite of you. I really hated Skyfall.
    I didn't hate Skyfall, but I thought it was hideously over-rated. The plot made no real sense. (Wait: he deliberately got captured so he'd be put in this specific holding cell he could jump out of at exactly the right time to attack the hearings at the Houses of Parliament... Surely there would be a simpler way.)

    What Spectre got spot on was the Bond girl. She was strong and awesome.
    I thought the point of getting captured was so that he could get in close proximity to M within MI6? Only she'd already left for the hearings so he had to make do.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,448

    Die Another's Day 'innuendo' is dreadful (shame, as Rosamund Pike is super).

    Overdid the gadgets, and the CGI looked bad even at the time.

    Even Rosamund Pike and Toby Stephens couldn't save it.
    But Toby Stevens as a North Korean was stretching credulity. As was much of the film which in any case cribbed too readily from the rest of the series.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,448

    rcs1000 said:

    William_H said:

    https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements

    "The United States has free trade agreements in force with 20 countries. These are:

    Australia
    Bahrain
    Canada
    Chile
    Colombia
    Costa Rica
    Dominican Republic
    El Salvador
    Guatemala
    Honduras
    Israel
    Jordan
    Korea
    Mexico
    Morocco
    Nicaragua
    Oman
    Panama
    Peru
    Singapore"

    Not all free trade agreements (FTAs) are equal.

    The Swiss FTA with China, for example, doesn't actually remove tariffs. It merely reduces them over a period of 15 years. And it doesn't cover trade in many services, or allow Swiss firms to offer financial services products to Chinese clients, or allow Swiss companies to own more than xx% of firms in certain areas.

    The deal between EFTA countries and the EU allows EFTA countries to have full access to the EU free market in goods and services. The deal between the EU and Switzerland, for example, has free trade in goods, but not in services. (Which is one of the reasons why UBS has more people in London than in Zurich these days.)

    The US ones you mention also contain a degree of asymmetry. Australia has removed all tariffs on products imported from the US. But, the US has only removed tariffs from some products imported from Australia. And the Morocco one only covers a subset of goods exported.
    What I have never understood, and you may be able to enlighten me, is why any country would sign a trade deal that is not reciprocal in its terms or at least provides equal benefit. Why would for example a service economy agree a deal in which it is shut out of the market in services of the "partner" country?
    Because not all countries are equal? The more powerful can demand on a favourable agreement.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the case for Remain.
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    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Eventually you'll like the film.

    Possibly, but unlikely.

    I saw Skyfall 3 times in short succession. I would happily have sat through it again as soon as I saw it the first time.

    I couldn't wait for Spectre to end
    I am the opposite of you. I really hated Skyfall.
    I didn't hate Skyfall, but I thought it was hideously over-rated. The plot made no real sense. (Wait: he deliberately got captured so he'd be put in this specific holding cell he could jump out of at exactly the right time to attack the hearings at the Houses of Parliament... Surely there would be a simpler way.)

    What Spectre got spot on was the Bond girl. She was strong and awesome.
    I thought the point of getting captured was so that he could get in close proximity to M within MI6? Only she'd already left for the hearings so he had to make do.
    Doesn't work since he must have already planned to bring down the tube tunnel with pre planted explosives.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,448

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Eventually you'll like the film.

    Possibly, but unlikely.

    I saw Skyfall 3 times in short succession. I would happily have sat through it again as soon as I saw it the first time.

    I couldn't wait for Spectre to end
    I am the opposite of you. I really hated Skyfall.
    I didn't hate Skyfall, but I thought it was hideously over-rated. The plot made no real sense. (Wait: he deliberately got captured so he'd be put in this specific holding cell he could jump out of at exactly the right time to attack the hearings at the Houses of Parliament... Surely there would be a simpler way.)

    What Spectre got spot on was the Bond girl. She was strong and awesome.
    I thought the point of getting captured was so that he could get in close proximity to M within MI6? Only she'd already left for the hearings so he had to make do.
    Doesn't work since he must have already planned to bring down the tube tunnel with pre planted explosives.
    *Please* can we drop the extraneous Brownite 'pre's?

    The explosives had already been planted. There's no need for additional temporal clarification.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Sean_F said:


    The producers have said they disliked that particular character. What I do find strange is the way they've opted to change the personalities of some major characters, compared to the books. Some of them (Tyrion, Cersei,) are significantly nicer; others (Daenerys, Stannis, Melisandre) significantly worse.

    Daenerys is just so goody-goody in the books that it makes it seem inevitable that she'll win in the end, possibly with Tyrion as a mate, and she's got the dragons who trump the other kinds of power by being menacing and cute at the same time. The series is better in making her more ambiguous. Cersei is also more interesting when not the almost uniformly nasty piece of work that she is in the books. Stannis is more nuanced in the books though.

    Back on topic - this piece in a conservative (I think) journal sums up the GOP race convincingly:

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/we-have-our-final-six_1055055.html
    Nick, you are right, the Weekly Standard is the NeoCon flagship publication (Bill Kristol).

    I agree with the top four, although I am still firmly of a belief that neither Carson nor Trump is going to be the one and should be in the top four only because of their current polling. Rubio has to be the front runner after this performance, with Christie his first Establishment candidate reserve and Kasich as his far distant reserve reserve (there is a lot of time for disaster to strike more than one campaign still). Totally unconvinced Fiorina should be in the top group. Cruz clearly is the right wingers' candidate, so will be there until the end but will not win.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Eventually you'll like the film.

    Possibly, but unlikely.

    I saw Skyfall 3 times in short succession. I would happily have sat through it again as soon as I saw it the first time.

    I couldn't wait for Spectre to end
    I am the opposite of you. I really hated Skyfall.
    I didn't hate Skyfall, but I thought it was hideously over-rated. The plot made no real sense. (Wait: he deliberately got captured so he'd be put in this specific holding cell he could jump out of at exactly the right time to attack the hearings at the Houses of Parliament... Surely there would be a simpler way.)

    What Spectre got spot on was the Bond girl. She was strong and awesome.
    I think I'm in love.
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    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Eventually you'll like the film.

    Possibly, but unlikely.

    I saw Skyfall 3 times in short succession. I would happily have sat through it again as soon as I saw it the first time.

    I couldn't wait for Spectre to end
    I am the opposite of you. I really hated Skyfall.
    I didn't hate Skyfall, but I thought it was hideously over-rated. The plot made no real sense. (Wait: he deliberately got captured so he'd be put in this specific holding cell he could jump out of at exactly the right time to attack the hearings at the Houses of Parliament... Surely there would be a simpler way.)

    What Spectre got spot on was the Bond girl. She was strong and awesome.
    I thought the point of getting captured was so that he could get in close proximity to M within MI6? Only she'd already left for the hearings so he had to make do.
    Doesn't work since he must have already planned to bring down the tube tunnel with pre planted explosives.
    *Please* can we drop the extraneous Brownite 'pre's?

    The explosives had already been planted. There's no need for additional temporal clarification.
    Yes there is because we are drawing a distinction between having planted the explosives immediately before Bond arrived on the spur if the moment or having planted them much earlier before he was captured. The 'pre' is therefore perfectly justified.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Offtopic speaking of fantasy sports I've gone for the following Jumps stable this NH season !

    Don Cossack; Vautour; Un De Sceuax
    Faugheen; Douvan; Annie Power
    Vibrato Valtat; Ma Filleule; Tea for Two
    Many Clouds; Rocky Creek; Unioniste
    Admiral Bob; Solway Bay; Nebula Storm.

    where do you get it pulpstar
    http://tinyurl.com/SuperStable

    Free entry for me, but you can pay a fiver for the chance at some ticketed goodies.
    Pulpstar , Cheers I am on

    Saphir Du Rheu, Sivinaico Conti , DodgingBullets
    L'Ami Serge, Faugheen, Douvan
    O'Faolains Boy, Top Notch, Mr Mole
    Volnay de Thaix, Aux Ptits Soins, Many Clouds
    Open Hearted, Lord Wishes , Southfield Royale

    Was struggling in pot 5 I must say.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Tim_B Is online gambling banned in the USA btw ? The law around gambling seems completely odd - I didn't get the Fantasy Football question at the time as it conjured up memories of sending a team off with a £2 entry fee on a postcard to the Daily Telegraph or some such.

    Fantasy Football is the way round gambling in the U.S. isn't it? Weekly big prizes instead of yearly

    About to be the next big thing here I'm told
    When I was in the US in September it was being plugged as relentlessly as the betting ads on Sky Sports. Presumably its legality is dependent on it being a game of skill rather than a game of chance.
    Fantasy football has a specific exemption carved out for it in American law.

    Fan Duel who are one of the two leaders of the field are a Scottish company valued over a billion dollars who have their offices right above Skyscanner's - who are also a Scottish company valued over a billion dollars.
    Fan Duel may be valued at over a billion but what it is worth is a matter of interpretation. It has raised 363 million dollars in funding to date. Let's hope it pays its taxes. As far as I can tell the founders are either Irish or Texan and its funding comes from America and its head office is in America.
    For the players it looks like a licence to lose money. The industry seems to have what some might say is an unhealthy long between operators broadcasters and the leagues. How long can it last I wonder.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TGOHF said:

    This is the sort of thing that will damage Leave.

    Major blow for Brexit campaign as US rules out UK-only trade deal

    http://bit.ly/1RCNlfe

    Yeah - the US will take a huff and damage their export markets - I take that with pinch of salt SE..



    http://www.export.gov/unitedkingdom/doingbusinessintheuk/eg_gb_026650.asp


    Highly developed, sophisticated, and diversified, the UK market is the largest in Europe and the fifth largest in the world for U.S. goods exports. The United Kingdom is the second largest market in the world for U.S. service exports.

    U.S. exports to the UK of goods and services combined were estimated to be worth about $110 billion in 2014.
    We do not currently have a free trade agreement with the USA, so what would be different for them? The whole point for them of an agreement with the EU would be to increase trade with the EU, which they presumably regard as beneficial to them. So where does America lose out ??
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Tim_B Is online gambling banned in the USA btw ? The law around gambling seems completely odd - I didn't get the Fantasy Football question at the time as it conjured up memories of sending a team off with a £2 entry fee on a postcard to the Daily Telegraph or some such.

    Fantasy Football is the way round gambling in the U.S. isn't it? Weekly big prizes instead of yearly

    About to be the next big thing here I'm told
    When I was in the US in September it was being plugged as relentlessly as the betting ads on Sky Sports. Presumably its legality is dependent on it being a game of skill rather than a game of chance.
    Fantasy football has a specific exemption carved out for it in American law.

    Fan Duel who are one of the two leaders of the field are a Scottish company valued over a billion dollars who have their offices right above Skyscanner's - who are also a Scottish company valued over a billion dollars.
    Fan Duel may be valued at over a billion but what it is worth is a matter of interpretation. It has raised 363 million dollars in funding to date. Let's hope it pays its taxes. As far as I can tell the founders are either Irish or Texan and its funding comes from America and its head office is in America.
    For the players it looks like a licence to lose money. The industry seems to have what some might say is an unhealthy long between operators broadcasters and the leagues. How long can it last I wonder.
    Fan Duel was founded in Scotland before moving head office to New York.

    I'm expecting the moralists to slam the law shut on the Daily Fantasy industry at some point - they need to get their Soccer offering up as soon as possible to be able to 'do' Europe. They key thing is coming up with a scoring system that doesn't require massive human input as American sport pretty much allows a completely automatic scoring system.
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