I note that no one disputes that the Conservatives have a hegemony at present. Given the underlying seat counts and vote shares, isn't that an extraordinary state of affairs? We shall marvel at its implausibility in the future.
However, it can't really be described as a UK hegemony given that they have no representation to speak of in Scotland.
Many of those 200 are smart enough to know that, smart enough to think "WTF am I doing???" Yet they still ambled through the lobbies like a herd of Fresians for their regular encounter with the milking machines.
And here is the problem with “wait and see”: with every day that passes, the political situation gets progressively worse, not better. It is not enough to merely let Corbynism burn itself out, or let it be comprehensively defeated in five years’ time. Here’s why.
Not sure this is true? "Never has a political hegemony been founded on such a small majority and such a small share of the votes at a general election" Tony Blair got 35.2% of the vote in 2005 compared to 36.9% for Cameron this year or to put it another way 1.8m more votes than Blair
Mr. F, hmm, I never would've picked Maurice, but that does make sense (about the territory) now you say it.
Not sure he dropped the ball at the last moment so much as gradually piled up (through being a penny-pincher) so much weight that the sandals were the straw that broke the camel's back. It also had the effect of allowing the vile Flavius Phocas to become emperor, ushering in centuries of emperors mutilating rivals (I do wonder if Basil II would have treated the prisoners of Kleidion as he did if there hadn't been 300 years of such things).
The rise of Islam was a bit deus ex machina, as it were, coupled with the rapid downfall of Persia which otherwise might have acted as a buffer between the Eastern Empire and the caliphate.
It's unfortunate Heraclius suffered ill health later in life, and his immediate successors were, from memory, pretty rubbish.
Mr. P, wait and see is cowardice masquerading as strategy.
spreading panic where there was calm amongst all english men and no doubt the changing room too.
I thought he'd retire with some sort of reputation intact after the Ashes, it seems not
I'm thinking of passing by for the afternoon session, not too sure I want to see Bell make another idiot of himself though. I watched him on debut at the Oval way back when, he really should have retired by now.
Not sure this is true? "Never has a political hegemony been founded on such a small majority and such a small share of the votes at a general election" Tony Blair got 35.2% of the vote in 2005 compared to 36.9% for Cameron this year or to put it another way 1.8m more votes than Blair
Richard Burgon is a left-wing[1] Labour Party politician in the United Kingdom who is the Member of Parliament (MP) for Leeds East, elected at the 2015 general election.[2]His performance in a Channel 4 interview shortly following his appointment as Shadow City Minister was universally considered as pisspoor[3][4].
Not sure this is true? "Never has a political hegemony been founded on such a small majority and such a small share of the votes at a general election" Tony Blair got 35.2% of the vote in 2005 compared to 36.9% for Cameron this year or to put it another way 1.8m more votes than Blair
The key word is "and". Blair got far more seats for his smaller vote.
It would appear that some of the "approved" absences from last night's vote may have been shadow cabinet abstentions who were approved absence to prevent them resigning
It would appear that some of the "approved" absences from last night's vote may have been shadow cabinet abstentions who were approved absence to prevent them resigning
"But what is far less known south of the border is that the SNP have been in government since 2007 — and that its rule has been a disaster."
"If you want to know what England would be like under Jeremy Corbyn, the answer would not be far off what the SNP is doing to Scotland."
LOL, where the SNP's popularity has never been higher after 8 years in government and will be even higher next year. Your hatred clouds your judgement badly.
It would appear that some of the "approved" absences from last night's vote may have been shadow cabinet abstentions who were approved absence to prevent them resigning
No surprises there. I imagine there was a long queue outside the whips' office looking for pairings yesterday, probably a few hastily scheduled constituency dinners too.
Often in betting you find an angle, hammer it for your life and the bet loses only to win next time when you're not on... I had a big bet on Alexander Meier to be top bundesliga scorer a couple of years ago at 33/1 only for him to finish 4th and win last year when I didn't have a penny on...
Many of those 200 are smart enough to know that, smart enough to think "WTF am I doing???" Yet they still ambled through the lobbies like a herd of Fresians for their regular encounter with the milking machines.
And here is the problem with “wait and see”: with every day that passes, the political situation gets progressively worse, not better. It is not enough to merely let Corbynism burn itself out, or let it be comprehensively defeated in five years’ time. Here’s why.
Very true, but Labour MPs have a bovine attitude of stupidly waiting and waiting for a cr8p Leader to come good.
The is issue is the 'how'. McTernan was writing yesterday that there is an opportunity to call a leadership election just before next Lab conference. The anti-Corbyns need one agreed upon candidate. Maybe a sound caretaker. MPs would not nominate Corbyn.
But as I understand it moves are afoot for NEC to change the rules so the existing leader has to go forward to the members vote. In which case, unless all the £3 have got bored and left, he will win again.
Of course not , most people are not stupid and know that increasing the tax just puts more of our money in Westminster's pocket as they cut the Scottish pocket money accordingly. It is not rocket science , just chicanery.
Forgot Scott is not Scottish and is a fervent loyalist supporter hence his posting of this tripe.
Mr. Isam, the NOM bet seems sound to me, but there are a few significant downsides: It's less than 2/1 and you lock your money up for 5 years.
If the SNP collapse should the hardliners who want a second referendum vote pronto split, that could allow Labour to, if not recapture their former territory wholesale, make substantial gains.
If Corbyn implodes in a cloud of communism, the Conservatives (or perhaps UKIP/the Lib Dems) could eat into red seats.
The odds aren't attractive to me, given the time scale.
“Our European friends think we are insane,” adds a British minister. “They hate the idea of a referendum and are irritated we forced the issue.”
Officials now speak of contagion. At a time when voters across the continent are doubting Brussels' capacity to deliver peace and prosperity, Mr Cameron has elevated the in-out referendum from the hobby-horse of fringe groups into the government policy of Europe’s second economy.
England 122-1 at lunch. It’s a very good stadium, And at least there’s a bigger crowd that when my wife and I watched a game there a few years ago.
Uknown unknowns. I don’t think we can consider the Middle East an “unknown”, or at leaast someone else kicking off there as being an unknwn. And if/when someone does we should make sure our nationals are out of it, and then keep well away.
It’s not likely, I think, that there’ll be a crisis anywhere else that would worry us, but Thailand just might blow up and nationals have to be removed in a hurry, but that ought to be manageable. Anyway I don’t think it would affect the Government here much, unless they made a total bog of it.
I suspect it’s more likely that there’ll be a major financial shenanigan involving people close to the top of the Tory Party. I don’t expect the VIP paedo tthing to come to much, though.
Bernie Sanders as POTUS might cause ripples, but not as many as The Trump!
Mr. Isam, the NOM bet seems sound to me, but there are a few significant downsides: It's less than 2/1 and you lock your money up for 5 years.
If the SNP collapse should the hardliners who want a second referendum vote pronto split, that could allow Labour to, if not recapture their former territory wholesale, make substantial gains.
If Corbyn implodes in a cloud of communism, the Conservatives (or perhaps UKIP/the Lib Dems) could eat into red seats.
The odds aren't attractive to me, given the time scale.
I just thought of it as a bet on the conservatives losing more than 6 seats
My condolences. Jetlag is terrible and long haul flights are shit, even if you're in business class. I'll never understand why so many people (mostly those who don't fly regularly) think of air travel as glamorous and sexy. Going to exotic foreign places is, but getting there is pretty horrific.
Not convinced it needs to be if your normal life is computer-bound (which may be a bit sad). I do a lot of long-haul flights in economy class - e.g. recently flew to China on Monday and came back on Thursday. I get a window seat, fish out my laptop, and do exactly the same stuff that I do on a quiet evening at home - some translation, some games. If I'm tired, I snooze, unworried by the time on the clock. Works for me, but perhaps it's luck of metabolism or something?
On topic - I don't think David Herdson is quite right that the EU has woken up to the need for a deal - rather, they're aware that we seem to want one but won't say what we want. They think we're a bit weird, and aren't in the mood to do anything special for us. Cameron's reported four tests sound easy enough, though, so if that's all he wants, he will get them.
Amused to see antifrank described as a leftist. He politely thinks that all of us who are wedded to party politics are nuts, but takes a dispassionate interest in affairs, if only for the betting.
Mr. Sandpit, I thought pairings only occurred with two line whips?
I would think that Corbyn's whips have to show more respect to their backbenchers than Corbyn did to the whips over the past 30 years. From the Tory whips' view the more Lab abstentions the better so they probably went along with it.
Memories of the scenes from 1979 and 1996, of MPs being dragged from everywhere including hospitals to vote in important divisions.
Not sure this is true? "Never has a political hegemony been founded on such a small majority and such a small share of the votes at a general election" Tony Blair got 35.2% of the vote in 2005 compared to 36.9% for Cameron this year or to put it another way 1.8m more votes than Blair
Thank you, I have been following the site for years but first post today
Mr. F, hmm, I never would've picked Maurice, but that does make sense (about the territory) now you say it.
Not sure he dropped the ball at the last moment so much as gradually piled up (through being a penny-pincher) so much weight that the sandals were the straw that broke the camel's back. It also had the effect of allowing the vile Flavius Phocas to become emperor, ushering in centuries of emperors mutilating rivals (I do wonder if Basil II would have treated the prisoners of Kleidion as he did if there hadn't been 300 years of such things).
The rise of Islam was a bit deus ex machina, as it were, coupled with the rapid downfall of Persia which otherwise might have acted as a buffer between the Eastern Empire and the caliphate.
It's unfortunate Heraclius suffered ill health later in life, and his immediate successors were, from memory, pretty rubbish.
Mr. P, wait and see is cowardice masquerading as strategy.
And yet, some of Heraclius' successors must have been okay. The Eastern Empire could have gone the same way as the Western Empire, after 600, but it managed to weather the storm.
Mr. F, thanks to Constantine. Byzantium was the perfect strategic location. I forget who was really responsible for the Land Walls, but he deserves immense credit as well. They saved the city many times during its independent history.
Mr. F, thanks to Constantine. Byzantium was the perfect strategic location. I forget who was really responsible for the Land Walls, but he deserves immense credit as well. They saved the city many times during its independent history.
It seems to me that the policy of converting the peasants of Anatolia into owner-occupiers, in return for military service, was also crucial. It gave them a huge incentive to fight Arab invaders. It meant they were fighting for their own land, rather than just experiencing a change of masters.
Good morning all. Antifrank enumerates some of the key risks well. I do wish he'd used the even more melancholic lines from the preceding verse:
Far-called our navies melt away— On dune and headland sinks the fire— Lo, all our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
On Europe, I think that it's no longer as divisive. Even as a confirmed BOOer, I can see that even if we lose the referendum, the EU will eventually collapse due to its internal contradictions. Even supra-national institutions don't have eternal life.
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
Mr. F, yes, that was a strategic advantage that helped the army maintain its strength (but also meant losing bits of Anatolia was a double blow, costing both territory and manpower).
Good piece but, as said already, some element of opposition needs to be in a position to profit from the above.
The cuts being so narrowly focussed in terms of departments, and in terms of social impact, it is difficult to know how bad it will have to get before it actually becomes a political problem. What I am particularly thinking of for this post is the council provision of elderly, adult and child social care (though much of the same applies to welfare), which takes up a large chunk of their budget and which, frankly, has been in a race to the bottom since even before austerity hit.
It is hard to see how they have not hit the bottom already, with cycles of competetive tendering meaning mobile care workers are only paid for their minutes in people's houses, with the ratio of child social workers to the children they look after having reduced from 1:8 to 1:64 in certain authorities of which I am aware.
Perhaps it might hit when councils get to the point where they are only left with cutting the kind of nicey-nicey services, the sorts like libraries, museums, school crossing patrols and meals services (and, given academisation, why should local authorities continue to give a flying about education services) that do generate protests. Despite being the sorts of things that the Big Society was made for, the politics seems to mean that retaining these seems often to have trumped base human dignity so far.
Now, I hope David Cameron's conference speech focus on social reform is real, but it looks like their only actual plan is to devolve the mess above to higher profile scapegoat mayors in the (often Labour) cities. Effectively their plan for cuts is simply that which is already starting to bear fruit in the Tory advance in Wales. That the effects of cuts could actually be used to strengthen the Tory position is one referenced by Don Brind quoting Jim McMahon in his most recent thread and, even in my advocating that the Labour centre take up the devolution challenge with relish, I noted that it could not be more a trap if it had Acme written on it.
Mr. F, thanks to Constantine. Byzantium was the perfect strategic location. I forget who was really responsible for the Land Walls, but he deserves immense credit as well. They saved the city many times during its independent history.
It would appear that some of the "approved" absences from last night's vote may have been shadow cabinet abstentions who were approved absence to prevent them resigning
Plausible points in the article, but what antifrank calls hegemony is simply a parliamentary majority. Typically it's what governments have and then have to defend at elections. There is nothing unique about this government and nothing unusual about the problems it faces. The EU is always there and would be an issue, referendum or not. There will not be another Scottish Independence referendum in this parliament and Tories can hardly do worse in Scotland than they have previously. The flip side of cuts is deficits and the other cuts not mentioned are cuts to taxes ... via tax allowances. The problems of government are problems worth having.
@journodave: *phone rings in City Hall press office* Yes, he did what? Rugby tackled a child? Let me just get a pen... *sound of whisky bottle opening*
How the SNP, National Socialists in all but name and demeanour, are clamping tight a one party state.
Centralising, illiberal, catastrophic: the SNP’s one-party state For years, the Scottish government has used the independence argument to avoid proper scrutiny. That has to stop
Good morning all. Antifrank enumerates some of the key risks well. I do wish he'd used the even more melancholic lines from the preceding verse:
Far-called our navies melt away— On dune and headland sinks the fire— Lo, all our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
On Europe, I think that it's no longer as divisive. Even as a confirmed BOOer, I can see that even if we lose the referendum, the EU will eventually collapse due to its internal contradictions. Even supra-national institutions don't have eternal life.
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
It's a great poem on multiple levels and I would have liked to have quoted it in full. It's so unexpected both in terms of its timing and in terms of who wrote it.
Kipling is one of our most underrated writers, largely because of all the baggage that comes with him, but also because he consciously wrote for a mass audience rather than to please an intelligentsia. Just because something is popular doesn't mean that it isn't also really good.
You sometimes think the SNP needs to be saved from itself. It certainly needs to be saved from the vociferous Nationalist partisans on social media who regard any criticism of the Scottish Government as biblical heresy. The problem is that many members seem to believe that the independence movement belongs to the SNP, and that Yes supporters should automatically support the party leadership.
There's been a lively debate recently in the wider independence movement about the SNP's privatisation policies. The independence supporting video blogger, Stephen Paton, has pointed out that the SNP hasn’t exactly been bending over backwards to keep water services out of private hands. But even to mention his his name is to invite a storm of criticism from the guardians of Nationalist rectitude
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
It would do well to circulate these pictures among those now squealing about "poverty". Real poverty has been eradicated in the UK over the past 40 years to the credit of all governments. The language of those who think that kids not having an iPad makes them poor is disengenuous at best. At worst their hyperbole distracts from genuine hardship cases affected by government policy.
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
It would do well to circulate these pictures among those now squealing about "poverty". Real poverty has been eradicated in the UK over the past 40 years to the credit of all governments. The language of those who think that kids not having an iPad makes them poor is disengenuous at best. At worst their hyperbole distracts from genuine hardship cases affected by government policy.
Indeed. Or classing children as homeless if they have to share a bedroom (that has to be apocryphal surely?). Shelter do define homelessness as including people living in homes (albeit overcrowded ones).
She's the most slippery customer - talks is emotional vacuity, deflects into whataboutery and then says she can't talk about individuals as a ploy to avoid answering.
MPs don't seem impressed at all "Are you aware that not answering fully is Contempt of Parliament and that's very serious?"
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
Good morning all. Antifrank enumerates some of the key risks well. I do wish he'd used the even more melancholic lines from the preceding verse:
Far-called our navies melt away— On dune and headland sinks the fire— Lo, all our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
On Europe, I think that it's no longer as divisive. Even as a confirmed BOOer, I can see that even if we lose the referendum, the EU will eventually collapse due to its internal contradictions. Even supra-national institutions don't have eternal life.
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
It's a great poem on multiple levels and I would have liked to have quoted it in full. It's so unexpected both in terms of its timing and in terms of who wrote it.
Kipling is one of our most underrated writers, largely because of all the baggage that comes with him, but also because he consciously wrote for a mass audience rather than to please an intelligentsia. Just because something is popular doesn't mean that it isn't also really good.
I heartily agree with both sentiments. Kipling was/is a great author and poet. I'm never far from my Kipling poems and short stories.
Far-called our navies melt away— On dune and headland sinks the fire— Lo, all our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
On Europe, I think that it's no longer as divisive. Even as a confirmed BOOer, I can see that even if we lose the referendum, the EU will eventually collapse due to its internal contradictions. Even supra-national institutions don't have eternal life.
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
It's a great poem on multiple levels and I would have liked to have quoted it in full. It's so unexpected both in terms of its timing and in terms of who wrote it.
Kipling is one of our most underrated writers, largely because of all the baggage that comes with him, but also because he consciously wrote for a mass audience rather than to please an intelligentsia. Just because something is popular doesn't mean that it isn't also really good.
She's the most slippery customer - talks is emotional vacuity, deflects into whataboutery and then says she can't talk about individuals as a ploy to avoid answering.
MPs don't seem impressed at all "Are you aware that not answering fully is Contempt of Parliament and that's very serious?"
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
When the story first broke I really had no idea what to think about it, but as it has gone on it has been increasingly alarming how incompetent they appear to have been, and how blatant and shameless at failing to acknowledge that in favour of vacuous nonsense and pleas about the children, as though, in the long term, we can help those who need helping by what appears to have been utterly useless frittering away of public money. The sheer ballsiness of it is concerning.
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
Yentob should be hauled in too.
I guess it's what he's used to at the Beeb, where he's had that part time non job with the six figure salary for a couple of decades now.
I second what others have said about a really excellent and thoughtful article from Antifrank.
I think the Tories do need to beware of complacency and hubris. Just because some of us think Corbyn is a dangerous loon and Labour a party seemingly unable to get out of bed without falling over does not mean that the voters will necessarily think so, particularly if things get tough for them individually and the Tories react with smug disdain.
I would say that there are two issues for the Tories: -
(1) who follows Cameron. He is clearly an advantage for them. Osborne has grown on me but I'm not sure - yet - whether he is a PM. Hammond and May seem dull. Boris is flaky and his time is over. So who else? Javid's main claim seems to be that he the son of an immigrant which seems a bit of a pathetic claim for leadership, frankly; about as compelling as saying you're an ex-Army officer.
(2) How the Tories deliver on the promises made in Cameron's speech - particularly re helping those at the bottom. If it's all words and no action and if the tax credit cuts start to bite and hurt then this could be a very real problem. Those who are well off or reasonably so do not need beating up and spitting at - which seems to be the Labour approach - but nor do they need to be cossetted. The Tories need to focus like a laser on helping those at the bottom end who are doing or trying to do the right thing and who need a helping hand, an opportunity to make the most of their lives as they want. If they do that or make a good start to doing that then that will surely help them beat off or overcome other problems.
They can do no worse than read Antifrank's analysis and think now about how they're going to deal with the issues identified. Saying that Corbyn et al are a shambles won't be enough. They need to say what they are doing and how they're going to approach the challenges of the future and help the rest of us to. The voters can make the comparisons for themselves.
Stop the Widow Batman-Twanky talking nonsense, and ask her where all the money was spunked away.
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
I agree. Why she's not been charged with fraud escapes me. I don't know what Yentob is for, other than embodying all that's repulsive about the so-called metropolitan elite.
Yentob should be hauled in too.
I guess it's what he's used to at the Beeb, where he's had that part time non job with the six figure salary for a couple of decades now.
And his own glass elevator in the new Broadcasting House.
Any credibility Yentob had is draining away, as he's filleted by Jenkin & Co.
My condolences. Jetlag is terrible and long haul flights are shit, even if you're in business class. I'll never understand why so many people (mostly those who don't fly regularly) think of air travel as glamorous and sexy. Going to exotic foreign places is, but getting there is pretty horrific.
Not convinced it needs to be if your normal life is computer-bound (which may be a bit sad). I do a lot of long-haul flights in economy class - e.g. recently flew to China on Monday and came back on Thursday. I get a window seat, fish out my laptop, and do exactly the same stuff that I do on a quiet evening at home - some translation, some games. If I'm tired, I snooze, unworried by the time on the clock. Works for me, but perhaps it's luck of metabolism or something? On topic - I don't think David Herdson is quite right that the EU has woken up to the need for a deal - rather, they're aware that we seem to want one but won't say what we want. They think we're a bit weird, and aren't in the mood to do anything special for us. Cameron's reported four tests sound easy enough, though, so if that's all he wants, he will get them.
Amused to see antifrank described as a leftist. He politely thinks that all of us who are wedded to party politics are nuts, but takes a dispassionate interest in affairs, if only for the betting.
Oh dear! I first read "luck of metabolism" as "lack of metabolism"
@journodave: *phone rings in City Hall press office* Yes, he did what? Rugby tackled a child? Let me just get a pen... *sound of whisky bottle opening*
If Johnson was in Japan then he was one Tory MP who was not at the vote last night. Who was the lucky spit dodging labour MP to be paired with him?
I second what others have said about a really excellent and thoughtful article from Antifrank.
I think the Tories do need to beware of complacency and hubris. Just because some of us think Corbyn is a dangerous loon and Labour a party seemingly unable to get out of bed without falling over does not mean that the voters will necessarily think so, particularly if things get tough for them individually and the Tories react with smug disdain.
I would say that there are two issues for the Tories: -
(1) who follows Cameron. He is clearly an advantage for them. Osborne has grown on me but I'm not sure - yet - whether he is a PM. Hammond and May seem dull. Boris is flaky and his time is over. So who else? Javid's main claim seems to be that he the son of an immigrant which seems a bit of a pathetic claim for leadership, frankly; about as compelling as saying you're an ex-Army officer.
(2) How the Tories deliver on the promises made in Cameron's speech - particularly re helping those at the bottom. If it's all words and no action and if the tax credit cuts start to bite and hurt then this could be a very real problem. Those who are well off or reasonably so do not need beating up and spitting at - which seems to be the Labour approach - but nor do they need to be cossetted. The Tories need to focus like a laser on helping those at the bottom end who are doing or trying to do the right thing and who need a helping hand, an opportunity to make the most of their lives as they want. If they do that or make a good start to doing that then that will surely help them beat off or overcome other problems.
They can do no worse than read Antifrank's analysis and think now about how they're going to deal with the issues identified. Saying that Corbyn et al are a shambles won't be enough. They need to say what they are doing and how they're going to approach the challenges of the future and help the rest of us to. The voters can make the comparisons for themselves.
Show rather than tell.
I am absolutely certain that the strategists in CCHQ are more than aware of the challenges ahead and what they will be proposing to deal with them.
Growing frustration of MPs questioning #kidscompany leaders. Paul Flynn says 'we've had a lot of psychobabble...can you answer the question'
Batman-Twanky is a fantasist. This is probably the first time in years that she's had to face probing questions from someone who doesn't believe her nonsense from the outset.
I second what others have said about a really excellent and thoughtful article from Antifrank.
I think the Tories do need to beware of complacency and hubris. Just because some of us think Corbyn is a dangerous loon and Labour a party seemingly unable to get out of bed without falling over does not mean that the voters will necessarily think so, particularly if things get tough for them individually and the Tories react with smug disdain.
I would say that there are two issues for the Tories: -
(1) who follows Cameron. He is clearly an advantage for them. Osborne has grown on me but I'm not sure - yet - whether he is a PM. Hammond and May seem dull. Boris is flaky and his time is over. So who else? Javid's main claim seems to be that he the son of an immigrant which seems a bit of a pathetic claim for leadership, frankly; about as compelling as saying you're an ex-Army officer.
(2) How the Tories deliver on the promises made in Cameron's speech - particularly re helping those at the bottom. If it's all words and no action and if the tax credit cuts start to bite and hurt then this could be a very real problem. Those who are well off or reasonably so do not need beating up and spitting at - which seems to be the Labour approach - but nor do they need to be cossetted. The Tories need to focus like a laser on helping those at the bottom end who are doing or trying to do the right thing and who need a helping hand, an opportunity to make the most of their lives as they want. If they do that or make a good start to doing that then that will surely help them beat off or overcome other problems.
They can do no worse than read Antifrank's analysis and think now about how they're going to deal with the issues identified. Saying that Corbyn et al are a shambles won't be enough. They need to say what they are doing and how they're going to approach the challenges of the future and help the rest of us to. The voters can make the comparisons for themselves.
I second what others have said about a really excellent and thoughtful article from Antifrank.
I think the Tories do need to beware of complacency and hubris. Just because some of us think Corbyn is a dangerous loon and Labour a party seemingly unable to get out of bed without falling over does not mean that the voters will necessarily think so, particularly if things get tough for them individually and the Tories react with smug disdain.
I would say that there are two issues for the Tories: -
(1) who follows Cameron. He is clearly an advantage for them. Osborne has grown on me but I'm not sure - yet - whether he is a PM. Hammond and May seem dull. Boris is flaky and his time is over. So who else? Javid's main claim seems to be that he the son of an immigrant which seems a bit of a pathetic claim for leadership, frankly; about as compelling as saying you're an ex-Army officer.
(2) How the Tories deliver on the promises made in Cameron's speech - particularly re helping those at the bottom. If it's all words and no action and if the tax credit cuts start to bite and hurt then this could be a very real problem. Those who are well off or reasonably so do not need beating up and spitting at - which seems to be the Labour approach - but nor do they need to be cossetted. The Tories need to focus like a laser on helping those at the bottom end who are doing or trying to do the right thing and who need a helping hand, an opportunity to make the most of their lives as they want. If they do that or make a good start to doing that then that will surely help them beat off or overcome other problems.
They can do no worse than read Antifrank's analysis and think now about how they're going to deal with the issues identified. Saying that Corbyn et al are a shambles won't be enough. They need to say what they are doing and how they're going to approach the challenges of the future and help the rest of us to. The voters can make the comparisons for themselves.
Yentob jumps in to protect Batman when she's flailing - and takes a very patronising tone that doesn't answer the questions either. Kate Hoey seems genuinely offended by the claims that *savagery* would befall residents not paid money by KCompany.
The draw is rightly favourite at 1.38 or thereabouts with Betfair, but a couple of wickets could turn the match around if it looks like England might have to follow on. Pakistan are about 5.5 but could come in sharply if the lacklustre Iain Bell meekly surrenders his wicket any time soon. The follow on is about the only variable left in the match now, on a very flat batting pitch.
100 for Cook. Well done to him.
I was going to go and watch today but can't be arsed now, will probably go there tomorrow instead.
Good piece but, as said already, some element of opposition needs to be in a position to profit from the above.
The cuts being so narrowly focussed in terms of departments, and in terms of social impact, it is difficult to know how bad it will have to get before it actually becomes a political problem. What I am particularly thinking of for this post is the council provision of elderly, adult and child social care (though much of the same applies to welfare), which takes up a large chunk of their budget and which, frankly, has been in a race to the bottom since even before austerity hit.
It is hard to see how they have not hit the bottom already, with cycles of competetive tendering meaning mobile care workers are only paid for their minutes in people's houses, with the ratio of child social workers to the children they look after having reduced from 1:8 to 1:64 in certain authorities of which I am aware.
Perhaps it might hit when councils get to the point where they are only left with cutting the kind of nicey-nicey services, the sorts like libraries, museums, school crossing patrols and meals services (and, given academisation, why should local authorities continue to give a flying about education services) that do generate protests. Despite being the sorts of things that the Big Society was made for, the politics seems to mean that retaining these seems often to have trumped base human dignity so far.
Now, I hope David Cameron's conference speech focus on social reform is real, but it looks like their only actual plan is to devolve the mess above to higher profile scapegoat mayors in the (often Labour) cities. Effectively their plan for cuts is simply that which is already starting to bear fruit in the Tory advance in Wales. That the effects of cuts could actually be used to strengthen the Tory position is one referenced by Don Brind quoting Jim McMahon in his most recent thread and, even in my advocating that the Labour centre take up the devolution challenge with relish, I noted that it could not be more a trap if it had Acme written on it.
There seem to be several strands to GO's general strategy. I particularly like the one which seeks, where possible, to place the burden of raising money on those who spend the money. I think this has legs in many places and is already causing some twitching in the SNP and some local councils.
This Kids Company stuff is pathetic, I get they probably helped some people, but it is clearly not as many as they claimed, and it was in a way which was unsustainable at the very least, so while I can understand them being defensive about what they were about, how can they have an answer for the failings that are now so obvious? Would their solution have been the public through the government just continue to funnel money through them forevermore in ever increasing amounts despite all the obvious flaws in their organisation.
Growing frustration of MPs questioning #kidscompany leaders. Paul Flynn says 'we've had a lot of psychobabble...can you answer the question'
Batman-Twanky is a fantasist. This is probably the first time in years that she's had to face probing questions from someone who doesn't believe her nonsense from the outset.
There is an F word which describes The Fat One but it is not fantasist.
This Kids Company stuff is pathetic, I get they probably helped some people, but it is clearly not as many as they claimed, and it was in a way which was unsustainable at the very least, so while I can understand them being defensive about what they were about, how can they have an answer for the failings that are now so obvious? Would their solution have been the public through the government just continue to funnel money through them forevermore in ever increasing amounts despite all the obvious flaws in their organisation.
The thing that infuriates me is this tarnishes other, less trendy charities who are genuinely trying to help struggling young people. You can't just throw money at someone who is poorly educated or has a drug habit or has mental health issues; it might make you feel smug, but it does not help.
I've belatedly realised that I hate that woman. She is vile. *Huffs into a paper bag*.
You and others should stop perverting the English language.
Scotland is not a "one party state". Such a description is correctly used to describe a country where no other party is allowed to stand, not where one party dominates.
As (admiittedly under barking mad FPTP) the Tories have a bigger majority at Westminster than the SNP at Holyrood, does anyone in the UK describe the UK as a one party state?-thought not.
It is such childish drivel that leads to the very dominance by the SNP that unionists so fear, so I suppose, though much irritated, I can take pleasure in such stupidity.
Comments
Very true, but Labour MPs have a bovine attitude of stupidly waiting and waiting for a cr8p Leader to come good.
Not sure he dropped the ball at the last moment so much as gradually piled up (through being a penny-pincher) so much weight that the sandals were the straw that broke the camel's back. It also had the effect of allowing the vile Flavius Phocas to become emperor, ushering in centuries of emperors mutilating rivals (I do wonder if Basil II would have treated the prisoners of Kleidion as he did if there hadn't been 300 years of such things).
The rise of Islam was a bit deus ex machina, as it were, coupled with the rapid downfall of Persia which otherwise might have acted as a buffer between the Eastern Empire and the caliphate.
It's unfortunate Heraclius suffered ill health later in life, and his immediate successors were, from memory, pretty rubbish.
Mr. P, wait and see is cowardice masquerading as strategy.
Eng 122/1 at lunch, 401 behind.
http://order-order.com/2015/10/15/shadow-city-minister-doesnt-know-deficit-hasnt-met-anyone-from-city/
Edit. Welcome by the way.
The logic remains but the enthusiasm has gone
No overall majority in 2020 7/4?
The is issue is the 'how'. McTernan was writing yesterday that there is an opportunity to call a leadership election just before next Lab conference. The anti-Corbyns need one agreed upon candidate. Maybe a sound caretaker. MPs would not nominate Corbyn.
But as I understand it moves are afoot for NEC to change the rules so the existing leader has to go forward to the members vote. In which case, unless all the £3 have got bored and left, he will win again.
Forgot Scott is not Scottish and is a fervent loyalist supporter hence his posting of this tripe.
It's less than 2/1 and you lock your money up for 5 years.
If the SNP collapse should the hardliners who want a second referendum vote pronto split, that could allow Labour to, if not recapture their former territory wholesale, make substantial gains.
If Corbyn implodes in a cloud of communism, the Conservatives (or perhaps UKIP/the Lib Dems) could eat into red seats.
The odds aren't attractive to me, given the time scale.
Set Phasers tae Malky...
Uknown unknowns. I don’t think we can consider the Middle East an “unknown”, or at leaast someone else kicking off there as being an unknwn. And if/when someone does we should make sure our nationals are out of it, and then keep well away.
It’s not likely, I think, that there’ll be a crisis anywhere else that would worry us, but Thailand just might blow up and nationals have to be removed in a hurry, but that ought to be manageable. Anyway I don’t think it would affect the Government here much, unless they made a total bog of it.
I suspect it’s more likely that there’ll be a major financial shenanigan involving people close to the top of the Tory Party. I don’t expect the VIP paedo tthing to come to much, though.
Bernie Sanders as POTUS might cause ripples, but not as many as The Trump!
On topic - I don't think David Herdson is quite right that the EU has woken up to the need for a deal - rather, they're aware that we seem to want one but won't say what we want. They think we're a bit weird, and aren't in the mood to do anything special for us. Cameron's reported four tests sound easy enough, though, so if that's all he wants, he will get them.
Amused to see antifrank described as a leftist. He politely thinks that all of us who are wedded to party politics are nuts, but takes a dispassionate interest in affairs, if only for the betting.
Memories of the scenes from 1979 and 1996, of MPs being dragged from everywhere including hospitals to vote in important divisions.
There were literally a few dozen there for the past two days, it does seem that Test cricket is slowly dying off outside of the Ashes.
Will be packed for the ODIs though, and sold out in advance for the 20/20.
Far-called our navies melt away—
On dune and headland sinks the fire—
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
On Europe, I think that it's no longer as divisive. Even as a confirmed BOOer, I can see that even if we lose the referendum, the EU will eventually collapse due to its internal contradictions. Even supra-national institutions don't have eternal life.
To be contrarian, if we look at the Glasgow pictures from the 70s that were run in the papers yesterday, we've come a long way in less than fifty years (and both major parties can take at least some credit for that progress). Today's social problems are very much First World problems. A dull but competent administration could run for fifteen to twenty years, as the radicalism of yesteryear isn't as necessary.
Was it Maurice who organised that?
The cuts being so narrowly focussed in terms of departments, and in terms of social impact, it is difficult to know how bad it will have to get before it actually becomes a political problem. What I am particularly thinking of for this post is the council provision of elderly, adult and child social care (though much of the same applies to welfare), which takes up a large chunk of their budget and which, frankly, has been in a race to the bottom since even before austerity hit.
It is hard to see how they have not hit the bottom already, with cycles of competetive tendering meaning mobile care workers are only paid for their minutes in people's houses, with the ratio of child social workers to the children they look after having reduced from 1:8 to 1:64 in certain authorities of which I am aware.
Perhaps it might hit when councils get to the point where they are only left with cutting the kind of nicey-nicey services, the sorts like libraries, museums, school crossing patrols and meals services (and, given academisation, why should local authorities continue to give a flying about education services) that do generate protests. Despite being the sorts of things that the Big Society was made for, the politics seems to mean that retaining these seems often to have trumped base human dignity so far.
Now, I hope David Cameron's conference speech focus on social reform is real, but it looks like their only actual plan is to devolve the mess above to higher profile scapegoat mayors in the (often Labour) cities. Effectively their plan for cuts is simply that which is already starting to bear fruit in the Tory advance in Wales. That the effects of cuts could actually be used to strengthen the Tory position is one referenced by Don Brind quoting Jim McMahon in his most recent thread and, even in my advocating that the Labour centre take up the devolution challenge with relish, I noted that it could not be more a trap if it had Acme written on it.
I'm mortified.
Yentob is appallingly slimey - I'd count my fingers after shaking hands with him.
Boris Johnson knocks over 10-year-old boy during rugby game in Japan
http://bit.ly/1LbMFfm
The EU is always there and would be an issue, referendum or not.
There will not be another Scottish Independence referendum in this parliament and Tories can hardly do worse in Scotland than they have previously.
The flip side of cuts is deficits and the other cuts not mentioned are cuts to taxes ... via tax allowances.
The problems of government are problems worth having.
Yes, he did what? Rugby tackled a child? Let me just get a pen...
*sound of whisky bottle opening*
How the SNP, National Socialists in all but name and demeanour, are clamping tight a one party state.
Centralising, illiberal, catastrophic: the SNP’s one-party state
For years, the Scottish government has used the independence argument to avoid proper scrutiny. That has to stop
Kipling is one of our most underrated writers, largely because of all the baggage that comes with him, but also because he consciously wrote for a mass audience rather than to please an intelligentsia. Just because something is popular doesn't mean that it isn't also really good.
Cash handed out willy nilly, employees on the roll as 'vulnerable children', and the school fees of children of staff being paid from charity coffers?
If there was any justice, the Met Police would be waiting outside to arrest these people.
Half of Jewish children born by 2031 will be Charedi, says report http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/147334/half-jewish-children-born-2031-will-be-charedi-says-report …
Which to me is a shame. Secular Jews are a shrinking band, and I'm afraid will disappear to almost nothing.
MPs don't seem impressed at all "Are you aware that not answering fully is Contempt of Parliament and that's very serious?"
Er. Ouch.
Sam Crow @SirDickOfHearts 1m1 minute ago
#KidsCompany claimed there were "genetic changes" in the children they "treated" #Yentob #Batmanghelidjh
"without me and Camilla, there would be riots on the streets. Just days after #Kidscompany was forced to close, someone was stabbed"
I think the Tories do need to beware of complacency and hubris. Just because some of us think Corbyn is a dangerous loon and Labour a party seemingly unable to get out of bed without falling over does not mean that the voters will necessarily think so, particularly if things get tough for them individually and the Tories react with smug disdain.
I would say that there are two issues for the Tories: -
(1) who follows Cameron. He is clearly an advantage for them. Osborne has grown on me but I'm not sure - yet - whether he is a PM. Hammond and May seem dull. Boris is flaky and his time is over. So who else? Javid's main claim seems to be that he the son of an immigrant which seems a bit of a pathetic claim for leadership, frankly; about as compelling as saying you're an ex-Army officer.
(2) How the Tories deliver on the promises made in Cameron's speech - particularly re helping those at the bottom. If it's all words and no action and if the tax credit cuts start to bite and hurt then this could be a very real problem. Those who are well off or reasonably so do not need beating up and spitting at - which seems to be the Labour approach - but nor do they need to be cossetted. The Tories need to focus like a laser on helping those at the bottom end who are doing or trying to do the right thing and who need a helping hand, an opportunity to make the most of their lives as they want. If they do that or make a good start to doing that then that will surely help them beat off or overcome other problems.
They can do no worse than read Antifrank's analysis and think now about how they're going to deal with the issues identified. Saying that Corbyn et al are a shambles won't be enough. They need to say what they are doing and how they're going to approach the challenges of the future and help the rest of us to. The voters can make the comparisons for themselves.
Show rather than tell.
Any credibility Yentob had is draining away, as he's filleted by Jenkin & Co.
I also want to praise the posts of MyBurningEars a few threads back on Hamas and the attractions of violence. Really outstanding posts.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA
Growing frustration of MPs questioning #kidscompany leaders. Paul Flynn says 'we've had a lot of psychobabble...can you answer the question'
I think this is one area where the government needs to focus.
MPs asking Camila Batmanghelidjh why Kids Company claimed to help 36k clients when local councils received only 1700 files after closure.
Is there ever a right answer?
Alex Wood @AlexWood900 41s41 seconds ago
"How do you help someone's mental health by buying them a £150 pair of shoes?" Wow, this is awesome. #kidscompany
The draw is rightly favourite at 1.38 or thereabouts with Betfair, but a couple of wickets could turn the match around if it looks like England might have to follow on. Pakistan are about 5.5 but could come in sharply if the lacklustre Iain Bell meekly surrenders his wicket any time soon. The follow on is about the only variable left in the match now, on a very flat batting pitch.
100 for Cook. Well done to him.
I was going to go and watch today but can't be arsed now, will probably go there tomorrow instead.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/uk-britain-eu-merkel-idUKKCN0S90LG20151015
I've belatedly realised that I hate that woman. She is vile. *Huffs into a paper bag*.
You and others should stop perverting the English language.
Scotland is not a "one party state". Such a description is correctly used to describe a country where no other party is allowed to stand, not where one party dominates.
As (admiittedly under barking mad FPTP) the Tories have a bigger majority at Westminster than the SNP at Holyrood, does anyone in the UK describe the UK as a one party state?-thought not.
It is such childish drivel that leads to the very dominance by the SNP that unionists so fear, so I suppose, though much irritated, I can take pleasure in such stupidity.
nycdeb @nycdeb 2m2 minutes ago
*eyeroll* I know 4 year olds who dissemble better than this #kidscompany.
I'm SHOCKED. Shocked I tell you.
*entire BBC press office enters panic mode*