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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank: How the Conservatives will lose their hegemony
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank: How the Conservatives will lose their hegemony
In 1897, the British Empire was at its zenith. “The sun never sets on the British Empire” was a literal truth. It was the world’s dominant military power and gloried in its success as leader of the industrial revolution. Its puissance seemed unchallengeable. It was against that background that Rudyard Kipling composed a poem for Queen Victoria’s diamond jubilee. This is i…
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.... and more lefty wishful thinking bites the dust....
How the three line whip works in the shadow cabinet.
The indyref 2 issue is a red herring however - that's done until 2035.
In fact, it's exactly the sort of thinking the government should be doing if they want to win in 2020, if only so they can plan ahead to mitigate these negatives by policy changes or spin.
Forewarned is forearmed.
We need a predictions page, so that when we find out what the PM has got we can argue about what constitutes "embarrassingly modest"!
For me, even more that the EU, the next recession is key. For the last 3-4 years of the last Parliament and so far in this one the economic news has been consistently good with record employment, very low inflation, rising living standards for the majority and a falling deficit. This has given the Tories in general and Osborne in particular a lustre of competence and capability which may not be sufficient for victory but is a very good start.
What does Osborne do when the sun is no longer shining and he has still not managed to rebalance the economy by eliminating the deficit which starts to creep up again? Yesterday evening must have been enormous fun for him (although an overly smug looking Osborne is not the most attractive look) but that is when he will start earning his corn.
Of course, luckily for politicians, we do not judge our leaders in absolute terms but in relative terms. At an election the country faces a choice. At the moment Labour seem determined not to be a part of that choice and the sane part of the party is not willing to do anything about it, hence the best part of 200 trudging through the lobbies in support of that guff from McConnell. The best hope for a continuing Tory hegemony is that, as in 2015, there will not be a credible choice for those who simply want competent government.
A little subtle change in positioning or spin now could save a few seats in 2020 at little cost.
A well-argued case from antifrank, though not one I agree with particularly because of the following line:
"The Conservatives’ current hegemony is not produced from their own innate strength but from the extraordinary weakness of their opponents"
This is true. It is also unlikely to stop being true any time soon - unless the Conservatives do develop further innate strength (we should remember that the Tories polled more votes in the 2015GE than any party at any election this century; it is not *that* weak a mandate). But the main point is that Labour will remain divided whether or not Corbyn falls, the Lib Dems will remain with a handful of seats, the SNP will remain maxed out, UKIP will remain a fringe party under Farage (and will lose some relevance after the Eurovote whichever way it goes unless, perhaps, it's a very narrow Remain). The anti-Tory coalition is not simply dispersed; it does not exist in any meaningful sense.
Consequently, the potency of all the other challenges declines relatively.
The EuroRef will be a major challenge for the party, one which divides Westminster from the voluntary party to a large extent (we've focussed on Labour's activist/MP division but this is the Blue equivalent). It is not, however, insurmountable. We got a strong hint from Juncker yesterday that he gets the seriousness of the problem. Merkel's position is much weaker now than it was six months ago. A deal is doable because the EU seems to have belatedly woken up to the need for one. And a done deal is saleable.
As for cuts, yes, there'll be lots more squealing but we saw how far shouting 'Bedroom Tax' got last time. The Child Tax Credit cuts were not well handled and caused problems at the time but were largely forgotten three or four years on, not least because personal circumstances change: those affected at the time were not necessarily even potential beneficiaries by the election, while some of those who were didn't feel the cut because they didn't qualify when it was made.
A ScotRef2 will not be particularly damaging at all. There's probably a sense of fatalism now; that if it happens then there's little that could reasonably be done to stop it, unless HMG conducts itself particularly cack-handedly. But if it is a Yes then the Tories gain an (almost) instant 55-seat boost to their majority and if it's another No then it's no change.
While a recession could be a positive benefit for the Tories, providing that the cause is external. Even in 1992, when the cause was in large part internal, the Conservatives' better rating on the economy proved critical. Labour too recovered *after* the Great Recession hit when Brown started looking not quite so incompetent. Against Corbyn, at worst the Tories could bank on cling-to-nurse up against Corbyn and McDonnell. We are not in Greek places yet. Indeed, if a recession did hit then it would give further credibility to the case for the cuts beforehand, to get the public finances into some kind of order.
All in all, yes, there are problems ahead. There always are. Antifrank could easily have added a fifth: 'events, dear boy'. Stuff happens: unknown unknowns and all that. But the overall lie of that land is more favourable now to the Tories than it was six months ago and will be more so once the boundary review is embedded.
If the Tory hegemony is to fall, it will - as in the 1990s - be at least as much down to self-destruction as opposition ability. Though on that latter point, Corbyn is no Blair.
BUT one point: why should not a UK Party not have a LONG period of Government? Say 30 years.. After all, it's possible - if there has been a sea change in attitudes. And the Party renews itself every so often.
Suppose there is a recession and a number of countries with extreme debt/deficit positions start having to make cuts in a hurry - cuts that make these ones look minor. And the UK is relatively untouched. Surely that would vindicate teh Tories?
Who knows? I don't . But suppose there is a recession. Will a new Labour Government cope with a bad one? Not very well given the current thinking I would suggest...
And Labour could well split over the In/Out EC vote... and UKIP under a new Leader change to become more appealing...
Good thing that in 2020 there will be a hugely popular Labour leader with the firm support of an England-loving SNP then.
I agree the Government is facing numerous trials, though I don't think these are worse than any other government's, and I agree nothing lasts forever, but you've missed out most of the huge factors in their favour. Boundary changes, an English society moving further to the right in many ways, the utter lack of talent on Labour's front bench and the pernennial hopelessness of UKIP at general elections are all massive advantages.
And if the country votes for Brexit it could work in the Conservatives' favour as the only mainstream party with significant opposition to the EU, while Scotland leaving would result in a massive block of opposition MPs leaving Westminster forever. Any recession, as long as it was not caused by governmental incompetence, could swing popular opinion further against the welfare state, especially if the opposition has no plausible narrative. And the cuts will mostly be felt by people - public sector workers and the lower classes - who wouldn't vote Conservative anyway.
I agree that the current opposition is dreadful but that needn't be a problem, the EU referendum will be enough to weaken the conservatives without any interference from anybody else.
The condescending gloating from Tories on here has been unedifying but we all know what eventually happens in that scenario.
Recession though does consolidate support around the percieved competent party and that is very unlikely to be Labour.
The risk for the Tories is Euroref-suicide. To have another party split and ungovernable would mean no party electable in England, just a political wasteland.
"But what is far less known south of the border is that the SNP have been in government since 2007 — and that its rule has been a disaster."
"If you want to know what England would be like under Jeremy Corbyn, the answer would not be far off what the SNP is doing to Scotland."
However, boundary reform, FPTP and Corbyn Labour currently give the Tories a free pass. For as long as the latter endures, the first two will enable the Tories to get through any storm relatively unscathed.
Only twice - in 1924 and 1931 - did they get over 45% of the popular vote. At other times, they won largely on a split vote, helped by boundaries that strongly favoured them by tending to emphasise suburban areas where their vote was strongest, and chronic under-representation for inner-city industrial areas (although, remarkable though it may seem now, as late as the 1950s the Conservatives had pockets of real strength in many such areas, notably Sheffield, Glasgow, Liverpool and Birmingham). As a result, even in the disastrous tarriff election of 1923, by far their worst performance, they still got 258 seats and were the largest party by 67 seats.
Something similar could happen now. Labour has no credibility, the Liberal Democrats have no presence, the SNP have only a very narrow voter base. It is hard to see where the challenge could come from. After one month of Corbyn, while Cameron and Osborne are carefully holding back from the fray, Labour is already badly split and a national laughing stock, with a policy position so confused, incoherent and to use Bradshaw's word, 'shambolic' that it is tempting to resurrect the old Soviet joke: 'Can a snake break its back? It would if it tried to crawl along the general line of the party.' Never mind five years, another 12-18 months of this coupled with the horrible blow about to be dealt to its finances by trade union reforms and Labour could well be finished as a political entity. Bankruptcy and a mass exodus of MPs are not unrealistic scenarios even if they are not probable.
Where I agree entirely with antifrank is that the Conservatives would be extremely wise to be very careful. The EU referendum will almost certainly get nasty - which could leave them split as well. The economy, to my inexpert eye, also looks ripe for some unpleasant shocks (Redcar could easily be a straw in the wind). If the price of fuel rises suddenly (one bombing in Tehran by IS would do it) life would become difficult.
But as long as they physically hold together, the weakness of the opposition means it is hard to see where a meaningful challenge could come from. Which is why the idea of them being still in office in 2035, while horrifying to anyone who values good government (no party could hope to rule well for that length of time) is not something we should rule out.
My thinking is a new centrist party joining with the LD's
Son 2 has only, I think, taken his family with him once, when the need for a trip to Australia coincided with school holidays. He lives in Bangkok, so that trip’s less off a trek than it would be from UK.
Both of them get home asap.
It's perfectly possible that one of the 2010 (or even at a push 2015) intake could be the next leader. Personally I think Rory Stewart would be a good bet. He's got a CV that very few politicians can match.
My only issue with him is that helping run two Iraqi provinces might not be enough experience to handle the infighting within the Conservative party!
Problem 1 starts the day after the EU referendum. If REMAIN wins narrowly, do the Tory LEAVERS just meekly accept it or they will start talking about a second referendum.
Labour need to wake up and ask their Scottish back benchers how this ends. It won't take long.
A bombing in Tehran by ISIS isn't going to affect the price of oil, as Iran (currently) doesn't export much oil to the rest of the world.
Bombs in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or ISIS getting down South in Iraq near the Rumallah oil fields might have an affect, mind.
I have come to the view that life could be worse. Like being a fast bowler in Abu Dhabi on this pitch. Absolute torture for both sides' bowlers.
And on that happier note it is off to work.
how labour would wish for one of those....
more seriously, how long to a Burgon thread!!
http://elxn-data.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/the-quiet-ones.html
It is a must-read.
The most legitimate counter-argument to both is to raise the question where the opposition is going to come from. That, however, is a very dangerous question for the Conservatives. Profound hostility will find an outlet for itself, whether through Labour, UKIP, dissident Conservatives or the Lib Dems or by some as yet unseen route. It will express itself somehow.
I don't think we'll have much trouble coming back together after the event.
I'd be looking at any Next PM candidates after Cameron priced quite a bit longer than Leave to win, which is currently 3.1 on Betfair.
That would make Theresa May at 16/1 and Philip Hammond at 40/1 on Betfair look interesting. Gove at 140/1 is another possibility too.
Worth noting that Douglas-Home was first elected to parliament in 1931 and had just short of thirty years experience in one House or other on becoming PM.
I think you're right with Pitt in terms of PM. In recent years, Cameron and Miliband both served only five years before becoming leader, and Clegg did just half that.
Prior to Major (11 years as MP before becoming PM), it was more normal to serve 20 years or more before making that atep, and at least 15 before becoming leader. Since then, the rule has been parties have looked to MPs who've served less than that, though there are exceptions.
For reference, they also polled 2.7 more than Labour did in 2010 and 600k more than Labour did in 2001.
I have little loyalty to the Prime Minister, even one as great at DC - I have great loyalty to my country and its constitution and people.
Point of order, Mr. Antifrank: Labour got a larger majority on a small number of votes and share of the vote.
Old news: Labour are bloody pansies. A perfect opportunity to ram one's boots between the legs of Corbyn, and what do they do? March in line, baaing occasionally. Only 20 odd abstentions [and only abstentions, not even voting the other way].
It's depressing. It's like Rome under Honorius. Where's the fighting spirit?
Though a horse ended up as a Senator it doesn't match the weirdness of Corbyn as Labour leader.
Also top work Antifrank.
The leavers will look for any signs of Remain reneging on its election promises, or the EU ignoring them. The moment they think that has happened, they'll accuse Remain of having lied in the referendum campaign, and say that should invalidate the result.
Basically, if REMAIN wins narrowly, it and the EU will need to be gracious in victory, not triumphalist. Gloating wouldn't go down well, and a new push to full European integration would be widely opposed.
If they win narrowly, REMAIN and the EU should instead be conciliatory, talking about soothingly about addressing their opponents' legitimate concerns.
Now, it's true that IDS was not seen as PM material whereas both Blair and his almost-certain successor were. On that score alone Labour held a significant advantage. But to say Labour "utterly dominated" is to seriously misread history.
I still don't know what to make of the new PMQs, it's good to see some more civilised debate rather than the usual shouting match, but the PM still needs to be challenged on policy, Corbyn's questions were very easily batted away.
Talking of which, I might head down to the cricket for the afternoon session, free admission. England's batsmen can't be as bad as their bowlers, surely? Not a match to lay the draw on this flat sandy pitch.
Seriously good article though. Yes, naysayers, it's long, but there are some major upcoming challenges for the Tories, some of which they can try to address, and others where their fate seems to be in the hands of the gods. I like the thread of sass running through it too.
Personally I think the cuts and the economy are key. I thought the public would be sick of cuts by now, but I was wrong, but there has to be a limit, particularly as harder cuts hit and the economy looking better, currently, leads people to ask why it is necessary. Conversely, an inevitable slowing of the economy at some point will have to hit their credibility. Yes, labour are not convincing me in that front at the moment, but if the Tory strength on the subject is punctured then it old be enough even with labour weakness given the slightness of the Tory majority.
The eu and Scottish issues could be more immediately deadly, but more can be done to try to address them, and the opponents could mess them up.
But once Cameron stops dithering and has to come up with something concrete, then the fun will start in the Tory hen-coop.
An interesting read, if a lot is old hat stuff. Lets get out and regain our self respect, sanity and society.
SNP 51 (=)
CON 19 (+1)
LAB 21 (-1)
LIB 5 (+1)
Dates 9th-13th October
N=1,026
Writeup http://t.co/fC4PO7iE6e
SNP 45 (=)
CON 19 (+1)
LAB 20 (=)
LIB 5 (+1)
Dates 9th-13th October
N=1,026
Writeup http://t.co/fC4PO7iE6e
Otherwise, another good article.
My personal view is that cuts as a storyline will be diminished by the hyperbolic language used by those against them, such as we saw in the last Parliament.
The result of the economic argument was seen at the ballot box less than six months ago, any opposition group wishing to form the next government will have to be credible on this point, a recession between now and the election wil only hammer that point further.
Scotland - really, with oil at half the price it was a couple of years ago?
The most likely scenario for a big change is if the PM and his inner circle are forced out after the EU referendum, leading to a more right wing group of eurosceptic Tories taking over.
Also, as others have said. Events and unknown unknowns.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34531861
It's somewhat similar to when Heraclius was ageing and Chosroes was mad/deposed/dead, the Persians and Eastern Empire exhausted by prolonged war and Islam rolled up and started taking chunks out of both.
If Islam had been founded a few decades earlier during the Maurice-Chosroes truce, it might well have run into a brick wall, instead of expanding so rapidly.
Or, to rephrase, the whole Middle East could still be Christian if Maurice hadn't refused to buy his soldiers new sandals.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3270237/Qantas-plans-fly-non-stop-Perth-London-19-hours-2017-making-longest-commercial-flight-world.html
spreading panic where there was calm amongst all english men and no doubt the changing room too.
My bet is that Osbo's cuts in the end come to nothing, as happened in the coalition government. It's all knickers waving in the wind!
Richard Burgon is a left-wing[1] Labour Party politician in the United Kingdom who is the Member of Parliament (MP) for Leeds East, elected at the 2015 general election.[2]His performance in a Channel 4 interview shortly following his appointment as Shadow City Minister was universally considered as pisspoor[3][4].
Excellent piece Antifrank. I agree also that Osborne needs to get a grip of the smug look. He's not going to look so clever when those million brown envelopes arrive just after Xmas telling hard working families they are losing £1000 or more. This will be in black and white. All the hot air about looking at the situation in the round will count for naught.
We should also add international events to this list. Syria is looking bleaker by the day and we could well end up being dragged in much further than we would like.