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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republican nominee betting
While all the focus in the fight for the Republican nomination has been on the three non politician contenders – Trump, Fiorina and Carson – the big recent betting moves have been at the top of the card
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FPT I had a thought this morning about this. We all know that Putin is devious in the extreme and plays multi layered games. How about this bombing campaign has another function - to further destabilise the region and to stimulate even more people to leave Syria and look for refuge in the EU. This puts even more strain on the economic and political establishment in the EU, foments internal dispute, and diverts attention away from Ukraine.
As a resident I want a roadworthy car with a non-criminal driver and an approved meter.
As a tourist I want the above plus a driver who knows where he's going and isn't going to spend hours stuck in traffic
As a black cabbie who studied for 3 years and spent 30k on a car, I'd be pretty peeved if anyone with a smartphone can suddenly call themselves a cabbie.
As an existing minicab I want my company to be better equipped to compete with the upstart.
As the upstart I want to ignore all the rules, or pretend they don't apply to me. One upstart in particular is being particularly sh1tty about ignoring rules - in several cities and countries.
The specific proposals mentioned seem designed to attack the upstart but in completely the wrong way - by attacking the things that the residents and tourists WANT from them.
A better approach would be to require commercial licences for drivers, regular inspections of vehicles and public liability insurance from companies operating cars for hire, then let the market work things out.
https://twitter.com/jake_wilde/status/649359215446900736
I imagine the Tories will push a Trident vote at the earliest opportunity. Mr Woodcock from Barrow will no doubt be interested in the official Labour view on the subject.
A few elections ago I had Rubio at 50/1 (forget whether that was to win or just become the Republican candidate).
Nomination looking likely to be between Bush and Rubio now - unless somehow Trump can stay the distance, unlikely though that might seem from this side of the Pond.
I think the loony right are overestimating the British public's desire to be Airstrip One.
It has nothing to do with turnout. They are not people who are registered but do not vote.
It is more to do with people who do NOT register in the first place.
Against an increasingly confident Russia, a rising China and various assorted nutcases across the world, Security is increasingly relevant.
Rather ironically, 2016 could be something of a mirror-image to 1992.
*Though Samantha Cameron's take would also be worth hearing.
The leader of the labour Party is castigated for saying that he wouldn't press the button that would release Trident because it's an action that would guarantee the world's destruction. We should feel safer having a leader who would press that button.....
...The time is out of joint. O cursèd spite,. That ever I was born to set it right!
Average Tory poll lead over Labour since GE2015
GE - Farron election - 7 polls - 9%
Farron election - Corbyn election - 7 polls - 9%
Corbyn election - Now - 6 polls - 7.5%
I'd feel quite comfortable betting a few quid on 'no' coming up quite a lot.
Putin is looking to knock out the remaining moderates to force the rest of the world to keep Assad in place as the lesser of the two evils in Syria. Ultimately, that will mean taking on IS as well but with Assad's assets unfrozen and with financial and military aid, that's achievable.
I'd regard any knock-on Islamic action in Russia as a feature rather than a bug. Putin has history in cracking down severely where necessary. An Islamic terrorist campaign would give him the pretext to do all he needs in that regard, including, perhaps, a state of emergency to remove (or suspend, for appearances' sake), remaining features of democracy in Russia.
chortle
Migrants fleeing to Europe weakens Europe and the EU, and therefore strengthens Putin's hand.
Destabilising the Middle East therefore produces multiple positives for Putin: it lowers oil supply from the region, increasing prices, and it destabilises Europe.
In politics today, it seems ambition and non-entity status increasingly go hand in hand
However, Labour's policies - to the extent that they can be determined - would be far, far worse.
However my argument would be that Trident does nothing for our security at all. (Of course it is still labour policy to keep this ridiculous white elephant). And a policy where we don't follow the U.S. into every one of their ill-fated geopolitical games would make us infinitely more secure.
labour policy will be very pro-armed forces - give them the right tools to face the genuine threats we do face and don't get involved in any more unnecessary wars where our soldiers get killed for spurious purposes.
Then try posting constructively. Going around calling everyone you disagree with neocons isn't exactly constructive.
As for: "labour policy will be very pro-armed forces": Yes, I agree. If Corbyn's past words are anything to go by, he will be very pro- other countries' armed forces.
I ask you the question I asked you at the end of the last thread: what so you see as the UK's desired end-game in Syria, and how do you propose we get there?
All points to the Tories being 10-12% clear at a real poll.
The 'popular' left are always overstated.
Splitters!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34409264
Ironically, it's neoCons who are most prone to looking at the world through binary goggles.
On Nicky Morgan: the Conservative Andy Burnham?
I doubt "most people" even know what those goggles are, let alone wear them.
Only a complete loony could possibly believe that Trident is a necessary weapon system.
oh pull the other one
For many in the west that will be a persuasive argument even if it is utterly bogus.
If Putin wants to bomb them, why should the West complain?
Alawites may be a type of Shia but they're definitely not IS. Or am I being too simplistic? Very likely if Mr Wisemann is on the same side.
So to say there isn’t a right side depends on how you feel about things.
I'm not recommending that we adopt Putin's policy - a policy that we will be supportive without direct intervention and conditional on human rights is consistent and quite possibly a better one. But for embattled dictators, Putin's simple approach has obvious appeal.
Sounds like a Unionist plot to me.
Really Nick?
"Only a complete loony could possibly believe that Trident is a necessary weapon system."
I agree which is why the election of Corbyn was so important. For the first time the question of Trident is going to become a national debate. That several shadow cabinet ministers are in favour doesn't matter a jot. This goes to the heart of progressive politics. Anyone watching the rather pathetic figure of Lord Falconer on Newsnight will know the writing's on the wall.
I'm holding fire on my (slight) negative position to Bush. He's got staying power but not the polling at the moment.
Other than that it's a case of identifying no hopers.
Pataki, Graham, Gilmore, Jindal, Paul, Santorum, Huckabee.
Christie and Cruz probably but still got one eye. Kasich similarly (a downgrade on my previous position).
It's a necessary strategic defence initative
Trident will probably never be used. But our opponents don't definitely know that we probably won't use it.
Hence the danger of Corbyn's statement: in removing uncertainty the only think he achieves is to make the world a more dangerous place
I suspect the answer is the kind of regime which would make you long for teh return of teh House of Saud..
It's another emperor-with-no-clothes fiction that achieves nothing except boost the transatlantic neocon establishment and the coffers of Lockheed Martin.
" - I had to think for a moment to remember who he was,"
Ex father-in-law of a once innovative ad man. Can't think of any other claim to fame
Again - shrugs.
I guess one thing off the menu is a commons vote on air strikes. We can wash or hands.
No whining when pictures of dead kids turn up on the news though - which they will. Then just wait for the backlash when Assad is back in full control - ouch - the prisons will be fuller than a soup kitchen at the Hungarian border. Enjoy the ride everyone..
Nick who?
She wants a buffer of compliant and/or destabilised countries around her borders. Syria fits reasonably well there with the added bonus of military bases.
It might also send a signal to Turkey that the Turks best defence is served by Russia and not NATO - especially as Turkish Accession to the EU now seems less likely than ever.
'Hugely unscientific interpretations:'
So why bother posting it or is it your comfort blanket ?
Trident fails because it is : -
1. Redundant. The American nuclear programme provides the UK with MAD and a deterrent.
2. Not Fit For Purpose. The Trident system (where we can't even fill a single boat with missiles and have quite limited Warheads deployed at any time) does not prrovide MAD, it would barely be a bloody nose for the Great Bear. It does not qualify as a deterrent.
So it isn't needed and doesn't work. £100bn for something that isn't needed and doesn't work is absolutely ridiculous.
Whilst the UK hosts the BMEWS system, and joint US/NATO communications and air force facilities, we most definitely remain on the receiving end of megatons of canned sunshine.
@MSmithsonPB
Nicky Morgan says it's time for another woman CON leader & tells Speccie that she'll stand pic.twitter.com/0OfU4TxV0E"
Surely a bonus to actualyl standing...